Nationals Arm Race

"… the reason you win or lose is darn near always the same – pitching.” — Earl Weaver

44 Responses to '2024 Wrap Up of Rotations with 2025 Predictions'

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1. The Nats’ window is officially open now. The foundational pieces to this rebuild: Wood, Crews, Abrams and the young pitchers (including Cavalli), are all on the service time clock. Every month/year we spend waiting for the pieces to fall into place is another month/year less of control of these players.

   As we’ve talked about before here, unfortunately the rebuild hasn’t quite built as solid foundations as one would hope. So we either wait and pray that House banishes all the worrying signs he displayed last season, that Hassell, Green and Vaquero turn into superstars overnight, and that Cavalli, Henry and Bennett are miraculously healed of their pitching ailments. Because the real cavalry among the arms, Sykora and Susana, are still 2+ seasons away, and still have massively high risks attached (plus, they’ll largely arrive in time to replace Gore and Grey in the rotation as they hit free agency, anyway). More realistically, we need to sign some free agents to bolster these creaky foundations. Because, again, every season where we wait and see means one fewer season we have with Wood, Crews, Abrams, Parker, Irvin, Herz, et al contributing to a winning team.

   Trevor Bauer aside (and keep him the hell away from this team!), we don’t need a one/two year flip project in the rotation. We need a good arm that will provide quality innings alongside our window and Wood and Crews’ 6 years of team control. That could involve spending a lot of money: going hard after Burnes or Fried (or wildcard: Roki Sasaki), or assuming considerably more risk, and signing Shane Bieber or Buehler. This winter’s SP FA class is unusually deep. There’s ample options out there. Furthermore, striking gold, like we did with a rental on Candelario and flipping him for Herz, while great, doesn’t really move the needle much in terms of improving overall state of the farm system, and there’s always the much more likely chance that this FA “flip” signing turns into Joey Gallo, Dominic Smith, Nelson Cruz, Alex Avila, Will Harris, Anibal Sanchez (the second time), Steve Cishek, etc. than they are to turn into Candelario and net us good prospects.

   Unfortunately, everything the Nats have done (or mostly haven’t done) so far this offseason suggests there is little appetite to spend money this winter, and I fear that we might be waiting for the right time to spend, which may never come. The farm system alone isn’t going to be able to lift this team into playoff contention, like the Orioles’ has. Only Sykora and Susana look like real, high impact pitching prospects, while guys like Lord, Stuart, Lara, etc. will hopefully be valuable back of the rotation contributors to the next good Nats team. However, a rotation of 2ish WAR SPs doesn’t typically get you into the playoffs, and those high impact guys are still a long way off, when we need more help today.

   

   Will

   27 Nov 24 at 6:13 am
2. @will hard to disagree. Grey and Gore are already arb-eligible. I’ve seen pundits mocking Pete Alonso to the Nats to be 1b/cleanup bopper, but I just cant see the Nats paying that kind of money for a 2.6 bWAR player who hits .240 and is positionally limited. Yes I get we need to spend money, but it has to be ‘good money.’

   But I too agree; it does not seem like Rizzo is in the mood to spend. I’m thinking one more year of player dev to see these AAA guys matriculate to majors and then he’ll see where we are.

   

   Todd Boss

   27 Nov 24 at 9:29 am
3. Lord’s run through the Eastern League was nothing short of dominant. though the Intl League hitters gave him a tougher time he never backed down and nearly matched his walk/strikeout numbers. I can’t wait to see what he does this spring.

   I wonder how Hickey/Doolittle feel about the opener concept. would our pitching staff be easier to construct with this in mind? do some of our guys fit into this role? I could see Lord pitching to major leaguers right now if he didn’t have to face them a second or third time. not sure I’d limit his development that way however. just a thought.

   

   FredMD

   27 Nov 24 at 10:16 am
4. I agree with Will’s comment too. You can’t count on the cheap part of the rebuild to ever close the gap all the way. Spend some money and give the team a puncher’s chance.

   As far as that goes, though, I’m not going to try and read the tea leaves on the team’s intentions. Rizzo is idiosyncratic enough that stuff like cutting Finnegan is uncorrelated to signing 9-figure deals. He pulled that stuff during our run of top 5 payrolls too. And, in any case, we’ll know soon enough if the budget is at a reasonable level.

   Also, since Todd brought him up, I want to discuss Bauer a bit.

   First off, it’s just totally fine for the 141st best pitcher in the world to have the job instead of the 37th best pitcher in the world because that second guy is a total asshole. This is just entertainment; we don’t need to pretend that maximizing sporting excellence is the highest moral good in the universe.

   Of course, I’m sure lots of assholes still work in baseball. Maybe Bauer is the worst, but even if there are other Bauer-level assholes still playing (or coaching or in front offices etc), it matters that Bauer’s asshole-ness is public enough that it we know about it. It just boils down to how fans experience watching someone play baseball. I don’t want to watch Trevor Bauer play baseball, and I’m not the only one.

   Finally, if a team does sign him, it won’t be Rizzo. It will be one of the teams run by sociopaths like the Braves or the Astros. Though you have to wonder what the MLB investigation turned up for those teams to not have signed him already. I mean, yikes.

   MLB-stuff aside, I just have a couple of small quibbles with Todd’s predictions. One is that I think Henry moved to relief during his last rehab stint, which means that, if he ever does pitch significant innings again, I don’t think it will be from the rotation. Another is I have Susana starting in AA, but I agree that’s a pretty close call and probably something they evaluate in the spring. And it will be curious which, if any, of the AA and AAA arms get converted to relief. You have to assume that some of them will be since the team has so much SP depth but those conversions destroy value on average, so Rizzo tends to be very slow to pull the trigger on them.

   

   SMS

   27 Nov 24 at 10:29 am
5. In the present state of things, it’s entirely possible for two seemingly contradictory things to be true: Nat fans have every right to be upset if ownership doesn’t start spending more, but other than Soto, every other potential free agent investment comes with considerable risk, to the point that most scare me more than excite me.

   And the Dodgers just raised the already overblown price of starting pitching.

   

   KW

   27 Nov 24 at 11:31 am
6. Some random thoughts through the system:

   — At this point I have no confidence in Cavalli. Even if he is healthy (which is yet to be established), his entire MLB experience is one start. I’m definitely signing or trading for another starter or two. I’m not giving up on Cavalli, but also not counting on him.

   — As much as I love what Irvin, Parker, and Herz have done — and thank goodness, considering that there weren’t may other options if they didn’t do well — I still have a fear that one or more of them will turn into a pumpkin. Of the three, Irvin seems to have the shakiest numbers. He also doesn’t benefit from the lefty funk that the other two do.

   — I hope Lara is ready to step up to AAA, making for an interesting rotation that includes Lord, Alvarez, and presumably Stuart. The last three are looking to continue the “found gold” tradition of Irvin, Parker, and Herz. But there’s also the chance that they’re reaching their ceiling.

   — Is Lara the high-ceiling prospect we were once told that he was? We’re about to find out. At age 21 he dominated at A+ and held his own at AA.

   — Presumably they will push Susana to AA. I expect Sykora to join him there at some point if he’s as good as advertised. The gurus really think a lot of Clemmey as well. He’s just got to learn how to hit the broad side of a barn first.

   — Will they start Bennett back at A+, or push him on to AA at age 24? They were really high on him before his injury.

   All in all, it was an extremely positive year for pitching in the system. I remember at this time last year trying to put together the top arms list for Luke’s site and being pretty depressed. There were a lot of injuries to top guys (Cavalli, Henry, Bennett, et al.), some highly touted ones who had under-performed (Lara, Susana), some who had done fairly well but weren’t that highly touted and possibly had hit their ceiling (Parker, Herz), and Sykora had yet to hurl.

   

   KW

   27 Nov 24 at 2:28 pm
7. Handicapping MLB pitching free agency, for the Nats specifically, I’d start small. Trevor Williams isn’t getting a lot of love on FA lists, so his price should be right. Perhaps give him two years. (FG has him at 2/$18M.)

   My heart says to bring Max back for a year. My head isn’t so sure about that. But in the $15-20M range, for one year, I don’t think it would hurt at all, and it would be tremendous for the young pitchers to be exposed to him and his work ethic. (And yes, Max may only be interested in a contender.)

   To me, Burnes is a Corbin contract waiting to happen (and not just because it’s his first name). All of his peripherals are going in the wrong direction. He’ll be good for a couple of years, then start becoming a hard contract to swallow for the last five. The Nats could afford him, but I wouldn’t advise it.

   If you’re interested in gambling — and the Nats are in a position to do so — make a bid for Shane Bieber coming off TJ. He won’t turn 30 until the end of next May. He shouldn’t be looking for nearly as big/long a contract as Fried or Snell, both of whom have about the same level of injury risk. (Bueller is too damaged for me to really consider.)

   Eovaldi is apparently seeking a three-year contract at age 35. (No thanks.) Flaherty is younger and coming off what ended up as a good season, but he’s got a history of injuries and inconsistency. Would you gamble $20-25M per over four years (or more) on him? Some team is going to pay it.

   And that’s about it for the upper couple of tiers, of guys who haven’t signed. I’d take Trevor Williams over folks like Pivetta or Manaea.

   

   KW

   27 Nov 24 at 3:08 pm
8. @KW – interesting points across the board. I’m actually right with you on Bieber being a good gamble for the team. I think our risk profile is better aligned with his distribution of outcomes than pretty much any other team.

   On Cavalli, I 100% agree with your take based on the public information. If I were deciding, knowing what I know now, I’d do exactly what you’re suggesting. But I do think that we need to recognize that Rizzo knows a lot that we don’t. Let’s say I put the odds of Cavalli giving us 100 innings of SP3/4 performance next season at 25%. I’d believe Rizzo, with much more complete information, could have it anywhere from 5% to 80%. And if it’s on the higher end of that range, it would justify a different orientation to the FA SP market.

   And re Herz, Irvin or Parker becoming a pumpkin, my bet is actually Parker. Irvin has the longer track record, so his “pumpkin” is probably still a useable SP5. And I’ve been high on Herz since the Candy trade and I dream on him as a possible ace, but he also has the shortest track record and I see the bust potential. Really, any or all or none of them could be meaningfully worse going forward than they were last season.

   

   SMS

   27 Nov 24 at 3:47 pm
9. Believe it or not, Cavalli still has three options. So there’s nothing wrong with him getting his feet under him in Rochester. We sure need him healthy, as every team is going to need more than five starters. Even if Rizzo has info that he’s 100% healthy — a big “if” — he’s still not proven at the MLB level, though. So please sign at least one starter, if not more than one.

   

   KW

   27 Nov 24 at 8:24 pm
10. I hope all had a wonderful day and feast yesterday!

    let’s say the Nats go the trade route to upgrade the MLB staff. one of the following need to be part of the outgoing.

    Lara or Parker
    Susana or Herz
    Sykora or Irvin

    some of these guys would be the primary piece and others secondary. are all of these guys untouchable? is anyone?

    we all assume the riches of the system for OF’ers will be the basis of the haul. you know what happens when you assume.

    

    FredMD

    29 Nov 24 at 11:06 am
11. Of the guys you listed, I would say that Sykora is more untouchable than the rest. But he’s also a really valuable asset at the moment, probably close to comparable to where Alex Meyer was when they flipped him for three years of a starting outfielder. The internal evaluation staff definitely made the right call on that one.

    Of the ones you listed, I would be more inclined to dangle Susana. I think Lara is better than he’s generally thought of, that they would be selling low on him. There are questions about whether Susana can ever completely harness everything, as we’ve discussed.

    Of the three already in the majors, I don’t think any of them is untouchable, but all are really valuable to the Nats right now — very cheap, controlled starting pitching, with seemingly healthy arms (knock wood). To be completely contradictory, I would vote Irvin as the most likely of the three to turn into a pumpkin, but with his frame and power, he could also end up the best among them.

    

    KW

    29 Nov 24 at 12:34 pm
12. when I see Irvin I immediately think of watching Luke Weaver in the playoffs. never in his career did he earn a save then in one month he’s closing for a World Series team. his stuff is no better than Irvin’s. now Irvin is much more valuable to the Nats as a starter right now, but down the road?

    

    FredMD

    30 Nov 24 at 9:31 am
13. Since Bauer has come up a couple times … I wanted to make a comment. Yes, the comes off as “not a nice guy.” However, the case against him has turned out to be a complete blackmail job from a gold digger trying to get money out of him. Charges dismissed, fraud charges filed against his former accuser. Once cleared he posted all the text and video evidence of this girl basically admitting to her friend she was trying to entrap him.

    99 times out of 100 when its he said/she said w/r/t sexual assault, the man did something. However, with Bauer it really does seem like he was targeted. And now he can’t get a job in the MLB.

    Judge for yourself; there’s video links embedded in this Fox Sports story where Bauer explains everything: https://www.foxnews.com/sports/trevor-bauer-settles-legal-dispute-accuser-reveals-damning-messages

    Kobe Bryant continued his career basically unscathed after actually doing worse, buying off his accuser and his wife, and he retired a hall of fame hero. If Kobe Bryant was named Kevin Bryant and wasn’t and NBA player, he’d have served a 10year sentence. Just saying; Buaer is a dick on twitter but he doesn’t deserve to be black balled.

    

    Todd Boss

    30 Nov 24 at 1:02 pm
14. Every reliever is a failed starter. If Irvin gets knocked out of the rotation, and discovers that he can throw two pitches for an inning at 100% effort and adds FB ticks, then so be it. But yeah, we cross that bridge when we get there. It’d be a great problem to have, instead of our current problem (not enough mlb quality arms on this team for the past several years, resulting in Corbin making every start for four seasons).

    

    Todd Boss

    30 Nov 24 at 1:04 pm
15. The Kobe thing — yeah, I never understood how that all just went away. Hollywood magic.

    The Bauer thing supposedly was “resolved” in October 2023, but no team signed him in 2024, despite all the desperation for pitching last season. Makes you wonder if there’s more to it. He’ll turn 34 in January and hasn’t pitched in three seasons. Does that mean he’s had an arm-saving extension to his shelf life, or that he probably wouldn’t come back as nearly the same?

    My Nat-specific take: I don’t think they’re the team to take on the baggage, including the “not a nice guy” baggage. It will be interesting to see if another team does. He’s better, and has a healthier arm, than most of the big names on the market.

    

    KW

    30 Nov 24 at 9:58 pm
16. Bauer will never pitch in the MLB again. Its implicit, unstated collusion by the owners, just as with Barry Bonds after his last season. Nobody wants the baggage.

    Bonds’ final season: .276/.480/.565 good for an OPS+ figure of 169. Couldn’t get a job. Couldn’t get one team to give him their DH position despite a 169 OPS+ and league-leading OBP.

    

    Todd Boss

    1 Dec 24 at 10:03 am
17. When I look at the field-playing free agents who the Nats might actually consider, the one who is growing on me is Adames. I cringe at the 27% career K rate, I know that shortstops don’t age well, and there’s a perception that the Dodgers will bid for him (although maybe not now that they’ve re-signed Edman?). Adames is only 29, though, so a contract would (presumably) cover three or four “prime” years. He offers two things the Nats desperately need: above-average defense at SS, and HR power.

    What to do with Abrams? Slide him to 3B and House to 1B, unless it becomes evident that Abrams’s head isn’t getting screwed on straight.

    Anyway, aside from Soto of course, Adames makes the most sense for what the Nats actually need, a lot more sense than overpaying for Alonso. I fear that Bregman is already in decline. With the Nats already having a terrific young OF pool, I don’t understand the folks who think they should overpay Santander for several years of bad defense.

    One interesting thing with Adames is that unless the Dodgers bid for him, his market may be weak. Nearly every other deep-pocketed team has signed a high-profile SS over the last couple of seasons.

    

    KW

    1 Dec 24 at 7:26 pm
18. And the “buyer beware” disclaimer for free agency:

    https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5960659/2024/12/02/mlb-worst-contracts-rankings-2024/

    For all the troubles of the last five seasons, at least the Nats haven’t been saddled with the Rendon contract . . . to go along with the Stras and Corbin contracts. In last year’s rankings, Stras was #1, Rendon #2, and Corbin #7. I read somewhere else recently that at some point during his contract, Rendon will become the highest-paid third baseman of all time.

    

    KW

    2 Dec 24 at 9:36 am
19. After the WS victory, the Lerners decided they only had the funds to pay for one of Rendon and Strasburg (and Turner and Soto too, for that matter). In the end, it turned out that both players were a mistake to sign, but don’t be mistaken for even a second, Strasburg was the worse choice. Strasburg has thrown a grand total 31.1 IP, and has been diabolical in those mere 31 IP with a 6.89 ERA.

    I can’t even say Rendon has been 3 or 10 or a million times better than Strasburg, because you can’t multiply by zero (Strasburg’s WAR since signing his contract), while Rendon for all his faults has been worth a total of 3.8 WAR with the Angels.

    3.8 WAR is disastrously bad, especially for $245m. But you know who has been worse than Rendon’s 3.7 WAR (besides Strasburg, that is)? Nationals 3B since Rendon left. In 751 games, 2800+ plate appearances, Nationals 3B have collectively hit .236/.298/.347 and been worth a miserable 2.1 WAR. Rendon (who has hit .242/.348/.369 in the same period) was almost twice as valuable as Nats 3B in one third of the playing time.

    On the free agent side of things, after Soto, there’s very little among the hitters that excites me. I think Ha Seong Kim would be the ideal player for the Nats, due to this infield flexibility and the mounting questions among our infielders. But Kim seems intent on staying on the West Coast. Unlike Adames, we don’t need to move Abrams by signing Kim, who can play 3B and 2B at above average levels. So if Garcia turns back into a pumpkin or House’s development falls off track, we’re covered there.

    If the market falls out from under Alonso, I wouldn’t be opposed to snagging him on a shorter-term contract or at a significant AAV discount for extra years, but given the course of free agency so far, that doesn’t seem likely. The market appears to be correcting itself after an unusually down offseason last year.

    I don’t mean to be a broken record, but the rotation is really where we need to spend. There’s a surprisingly high number of pitchers available this winter
    Tier 1: Burnes, Fried
    Tier 2: Flaherty, Manea, Bieber, Buehler, Pivetta, Severino, Eovaldi
    Tier 3: Scherzer, Verlander, Morton, Quintana, Gibson, Williams (the senior citizen, short-term deal contingent)

    If I were in charge, I’d sign two of the above names with at least one coming from Tier 1 or 2. But guys who’d have been on the list in November (Snell, Kikuchi, Wacha, N. Martinez, Montas) are already off the board. The Nats can’t afford to be bystanders, even if that seems to be the front office’s MO.

    Then I’d love if they could copy last season’s approach to the bullpen, with a bit more aggressiveness, given the recent gutting of the decent one they had this past season. Make 2-3 low risk signings like Dylan Floro last winter. Then sign a whole bunch of ST invites/NRIs/MiLB FAs (5+), like Law, Barnesx2. There’s a ton of former Nats on the market. In addition to Finnegan and Rainey, Voth, Gott, Floro, Austin Adams, M. Barnes, J. Barnes, Treinen, even Nats World Series winner: Hunter Strickland. So it sounds like we may have some reunions in store.

    

    Will

    2 Dec 24 at 10:53 am
20. It seems odd to compare Rendon’s 3b production with the Nats’ 3b production 2020-2024 without comparing the price tags. Also, it’s not a complete disaster for the Nats. Candelario put up 2.8 bWAR for the Nats in 99 games in 2023 and then was flipped for, in part, a player (DJ Herz) who produced 0.7 bWAR for the Nats in 2024. Given everything that has gone on with Rendon, it’s quite possible that Herz, making the MLB minimum, produces as much WAR as Rendon does for $77+M over the next two seasons.

    Heck, measured by fWAR, Candelario + Herz have produced more WAR for the Nats (4.7) in two seasons than Rendon has in his five seasons for the Angels (3.7). And at a LOT cheaper than Rendon in that time period ($167,857,142).

    

    John C.

    2 Dec 24 at 11:49 am
21. @Will, I think you’re missing one of my key points — they’ve GOT to replace Abrams at SS. Among qualified hitters at the position, he had the worst defensive fWAR, by a country mile. Abrams was at -8.4. The next worst was an outfielder by trade, some fella named Betts, at a mere -0.6. At Statcast’s Outs Above Average, Abrams is -17. At Fielding Run Value, he’s -13. Nearly every stat is brutal.

    I wouldn’t mind signing Ha-Seong Kim to some incentive-based contract, even if he can’t play until May or June. Heck, I’d sign some AAAA-level guy with a good glove just to solidify the position. Give the Dodgers a couple of broken bats for Miguel Rojas, who barely played in the postseason.

    As for Rendon, the Nats could have given him Othani’s contract and he probably wouldn’t have come back. He definitely marches to the beat of his own drummer. But in the 2019 postseason, he was one of the best clutch hitters I’ve ever seen. He had 25% of the Nat RBIs in the World Series.

    

    KW

    2 Dec 24 at 4:13 pm
22. @KW – OAA, FRV and FG’s Def WAR are all based on the exact same data from Statcast, just scaled to different units and with different baselines. They measure outs vs average, runs vs average and runs vs replacement respectively.

    DRS has Abrams 13th of 18 qualified at +1. UZR/150 has him 10th at +0.2. Also, in 2023, even Statcast had him at only -8 OAA, which was still the worst qualified SS but is quite a lot better than -17.

    I’ve looked into OF range data and OAA is by far the best and it’s as reliable as SLG, with YoY correlations near .8. For OF arm value, the three systems are pretty comparable and the data is much noisier. YoY correlations are around .3.

    I haven’t looked into the IF data at all, though. Maybe OAA is the only stat that matters there, maybe they’re all comparable. Maybe it’s really noisy, and maybe it’s not. FWIW, my current heuristic is something like 45% OAA, 35% DRS and 20% UZR.

    But really beyond all that, the wrinkle with Abrams is that he was dealing with addiction issues last year. I wouldn’t confidently extrapolate anything he did to next year. His late season slumps might be his new true talent if he can’t get his head right. And he might be able to put everything together and be a 4 WAR shortstop. I give him the season, or at least most of it, to show us which.

    

    SMS

    2 Dec 24 at 5:06 pm
23. Fully in agreement, KW, on Abrams’ defense. I want Abrams to start ST at 3B.

    My poorly phrased point was that Kim gives us options that Adames wouldn’t. In addition to the very big question marks about Abrams’ future at SS, there’s an even bigger question mark at 3B. House looks like less than a sure thing, and if he doesn’t pan out, well… there’s not much else to hope for in the pipeline. Also, Luis Garcia had about 300 games of being both a below average defender and below average hitter, before becoming above average at both this past season. While I think Garcia’s changes are sustainable, there’s a not unlikely scenario where he reverts to the mean. What I’m trying to say is our infield still has a lot of uncertainty. Which position ends up being solid going forward is impossible to predict, so signing a big ticket FA with no positional flexibility, might needlessly lock us into “solving” a position that might not need solving (just imagine if a wild card like Seaver King rockets up the farm system next year, and suddenly SS is not so pressing of a need). Kim would give us the flexibility to use him at the position that ends up having the worst outcome of the players we already have. And I think for a team like the Nationals, that flexibility is worth A LOT more than it is to most other teams, especially those with other quality infielders, where Kim’s versatility makes less of a difference.

    I’m not worried about him missing a couple months to injury, because, barring some seismic shift to free agency this winter, the Nats are in for yet another season of the rebuild next season. In the best case scenario, this team adds like 10 wins in 2025, so losing two months of Kim makes us like an 81 win team instead of an 82 win team.

    

    Will

    2 Dec 24 at 5:19 pm
24. Abrams defense: defensive stats are tough. And the fangraphs data paints a confused picture. I like UZR/150 and DRS best; both show Abrams as slightly positive. That’s not great, but if you have a SS giving you non-negative defense AND producing at the plate (he had a 107 wRC+ , 13th in league) then you’re ok with it. the problem is … Abrams at 3B would need to be producting a heck of a lot more than he is at SS to be valuable there. I’d rather see him at 2B, given his stature and produtoin.

    Honestly though, isn’t this conversation premature? We have a top100 3B prospect in AAA, just waiting to come up. Why move Abrams now? Furthermore, we have a solid 2B at the MLB level both at bat and field in Garcia, and our best SS prospect is Seaver King, who just got drafted; he’s at least 2 years away. Kevin Made? yeah right; he’s a career .230 minor league hitter even if he’s great defensively. Armando Cruz? Career .226 hitter. This is our SS prospect depth.

    Unless you’re acquiring a SS … but why would we TRADE for a short stop when we have an All Star Shortstop now? No he isn’t perfect, but he’s better than a lot of options out there.

    

    Todd Boss

    3 Dec 24 at 10:57 am
25. I would be shocked if House is still on top 100 lists going into the 2025 season. He’s still a prospect, but unless/until he starts to hit in AAA (66 wRC+ in 54 games in 2024) he’s not going to be a call up option. “Just waiting to come up” feels very optimistic to me.

    Agreed on Abrams. This is a crossroads season for him, let’s see what he does with the SS position.

    

    John C.

    3 Dec 24 at 11:29 am
26. @Todd, SS these days are better hitters than 3B. In 2024:
    League avg 3B: .242/.308/.393
    League avg SS: .253/.317/.411

    While in 2023, they were basically identical SS: .249/.311/.401 vs 3B: .244/.316/.404, so 3B as a premium bat position hasn’t really been true for a while now. The gap between 1B and the other infielders has also narrowed considerably.

    On Abrams’ defense, my eye test (in addition to OAA – though there is something interesting to unpack here about the huge disparity between UZR/DRS and OAA. There’s almost always a strong correlation between bad defenders in one metric just being less bad in others, rather than the worst in the league vs slight above average, as is the case with Abrams) tells me he’s not very good out there. Lots of simple mistakes that in 2022 I thought with time Abrams would get out of his system, but I’ve observed little progress (this past season: it was regression, which I’m willing to consider attributing to other factors), which is why I’d like to see them experiment with him in Spring Training at 3B. If it doesn’t work out, well the damage shouldn’t be particularly long lasting.

    Though, it’s pretty generous to say House is “just waiting to come up”, when he just finished nearly half a season in the extremely hitter-friendly Int’l League with a line of .250/.280/.375. That was good for a 66 wRC+, with almost exactly 10 times as many strikeouts to walks. He still has a lot of work to put in, before we start penciling him into the 2025 MLB roster.

    If it wasn’t clear, Ha Seong Kim is a free agent, so no need to give anything away other than money to acquire him. But what I like about Kim so much is that signing him makes sense both if I’m right about Abrams’ defense, or you are. Everyone has to agree that the left side of the infield needs external help in 2025, and Kim can plug the hole, whether you think it’s at SS or 3B. And if House turns into the second coming of Nolan Arenado and gets promoted in the 2nd half of 2025, well, that’s the best kind of problem to have. Though I’ll remind everyone that there are still giant gaping holes at 1B and DH that still need to be resolved, so there’d be no shortage of playing time to go around. But all of this is predicated on the Nats doing SOMETHING this offseason to meaningfully improve the infield. Moving Abrams to 3B without signing a SS is just shifting round deck chairs on the Titanic.

    

    Will

    3 Dec 24 at 11:51 am
27. House has absolutely been on the last few top 100s released.

    Bleacher Report/Joel Reuter top 100 11/15/24
    https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10143157-updated-top-100-mlb-prospect-list-for-2024-25-offseason

    MLBpipeline updated top 100 10/5/24
    https://www.mlb.com/nationals/news/updated-top-100-prospects-list-for-october-2024

    Baseball America 9/1/24 update
    https://www.baseballamerica.com/rankings/2024-top-100-prospects/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=new-top-100-prospects&_bhlid=8c5589165a6e4f874ac88c8760487fcf958d9af7

    He’s 21, in AAA, was one of the more famous prospects of the last decade, and if he had gone to school he’d have had 10 games in Low-A this year instead of 2 months at the highest elvel of the Minors. I know we get prospect fatigue b/c we’ve been talking about these guys for ever .. but if we are ready to throw in the towel on House might as well throw in the towel on everyone.

    

    Todd Boss

    3 Dec 24 at 4:03 pm
28. Who’s throwing in the towel on House?

    I love him as a prospect, and just rated him our clearly 2nd best, soon to be best (by far), hitting prospect over at NatsProspects.

    However, there are very real concerns about him. This isn’t James Wood reincarnate. His plate approach is poor. He has a career BB% of 6.5% that has only dropped as he’s risen up the levels, and a career K% of 25.7%. And the prodigious power capacity has still yet to develop as planned, sporting a career .163 ISO.

    On the other hand, as you rightly point out he is 21, so he’s still got plenty of time to work out these weaknesses, and he’s generally shown improvement/ability to adapt after extended time at each level. His defense is also reported to be better than expected, which gives him a solid floor. There’s every reason to be excited about him as a prospect.

    However, I think it’s poor planning to put all your eggs in one basket here with House, especially when his arrival date is still optimistically a while off. Even elite prospects bust at a decently high rate (remember how miserable Nick Senzel’s stint with the club was? He was a top 10 overall prospect three years in a row only 5 years ago), and House isn’t elite, as a fringe top 100 prospect, where his bust potential is exponentially higher. Contingency planning for building depth/flexibility at multiple positions in the infield, where we have several extremely high variance/high risk players, is just smart planning, and not giving up on a prospect.

    

    Will

    3 Dec 24 at 4:52 pm
29. Good discussion, and an extremely relevant one, as these are the things that the Nat brass have to be discussing right now. What they think of Abrams is sort of the fulcrum of everything with the rebuild on the field-position side. I wish we were discussing whether it’s time to put an extension on the table for Abrams, but of course we’re not.

    I agree that defensive metrics are extremely squirrelly. I’ll add that Abrams has all the physical tools to be an above-average defensive shortstop. Perhaps one thing he’s “suffering” from is making the majors at such a young age, and not realizing that you still have to keep working and learning. Robles and Garcia (among others) suffered from the same problem. If you look at the greats in any sport, one thing all of them have in common is how hard they kept working once they were already in the pros.

    I agree with the “eye test” comment that at least some of Abrams’s defensive issues seem to involve concentration. He’s not the total fundamentals disaster at the position that Garcia was. Perhaps such/much of it is related to the larger question of whether he’s really taking his career seriously.

    With House, two things can be true at the same time: he’s not as close to the majors as some make out, but neither is he on the precipitous of wiping out. He produced some of the best power totals in the organization last year. But he did it while completely forgetting how to take a walk, and while striking out at borderline dangerous rates. When you look at his numbers, you really have to wonder why, at just barely 21, they promoted him to AAA when he was only hitting .234 at AA.

    All in all, this will be a big sorting out year as far as the rebuild is concerned, at both the MLB and MiLB levels. Is it too early to augment the internal talent with FAs or trades? I don’t think so, unless they want yet another win total in the low 70s.

    

    KW

    3 Dec 24 at 8:02 pm
30. If the team thinks House will be a MLB star, which is what he’s projecting to and has always projected to since he was drafted in the top 10, then it absolutely makes a difference how you approach 2025 team building. You’re not going to buy a 9-figure third baseman like Alex Bregman, for example, b/c that’d immediately block House and force him to a position where he’s not nearly as good. It also matters if you’re advocating taking Abrams off of SS; where do you put him? 3B? blocking House. 2B? where do you put Garcia? 1B? uh, no, 1B is where you hide a middle of hte order bat who can’t play anywhere else. OF? nope; we have 3 solid OFs that the team needs to commit to with more on the way.

    

    Todd Boss

    4 Dec 24 at 10:29 am
31. Again, who is advocating signing Bregman?

    The guys at FanGraphs, who are much smarter than me on this stuff, ranked House at #89 overall, and estimated his “bust” potential at 40%, to be a future 0.0-1.0 WAR player at 22%, 1.5-3.3 WAR player at 19%, and above 3.3 WAR at 20% (see here: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-top-100-prospects/ then click the green “expand” button after his blurb). This is for House’s entire future, and not just a prediction for 2025. That’s essentially a 40% chance he turns into at least a useful starter, and 60% he’s at best Nick Senzel. Personally, I see that as a pretty high risk scenario, and especially high risk for 2025.

    Then, as I’ve repeated numerous times before, there’s serious, albeit less, risk associated with both Abrams and Garcia. Signing a flexible player like Kim allows us to plug the position that ends up the weakest, and only in the absolute best-case scenario (all three of House, Abrams and Garcia turn into >3 WAR players AND never get injured) does it turn into a playing time “problem”. Which again, I don’t really see as a problem, because it entails taking ABs away from a “middle of the order bat” with a line of .215/.280/.413 (Andres Chaparro).

    

    Will

    4 Dec 24 at 12:03 pm
32. Here’s the methodology behind the prospect outcome likelihoods, if you want to dig into it: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/managing-prospect-expectations/

    Really interesting stuff (to me at least!)

    

    Will

    4 Dec 24 at 12:05 pm
33. As Will notes above, I don’t think that anyone is “throwing in the towel on House.” Certainly I wasn’t. My concern was with those penciling House in as “on the brink” of being an everyday MLB starter. Saying that he has work to do before making the jump to MLB is not the same thing as throwing in the towel on him. Please don’t put words in our mouths.

    And we’ll see whether House holds his spot on top 100 lists after a bit of a setback at AAA. I think that Sykora has a better shot at making top 200 lists.

    

    John C.

    4 Dec 24 at 12:43 pm
34. @Will – I agree with your qualitative point – even top prospects bust quite regularly. But I think those prospect-specific histograms are an example of the precision of the presentation drastically overpromising the amount of signal in the analysis.

    I think I recall Eric one time saying in a chat that all they do is take a generic chart given for a given FV, and then fudge it based on their best guesses about variance. Maybe they also include position, age and level with some rigor, because those factors would be so predictive that you’d really almost have to, but the gloss was definitely “these are meant to just be interesting, nothing more”.

    To be clear, there’s still a ton of value in their guesses – those guys know a lot about prospects – but charts like that imply that some kind of stat-driven analysis that’s been validated, and I just don’t think that’s the case here.

    

    SMS

    4 Dec 24 at 1:12 pm
35. I have very limited interest in Bregman. His numbers are trending downward at 30 (about to be 31), and giving him a contract of 5 to 7 years would be a bit crazy. (And isn’t it curious how he no longer had superstar numbers after they outlawed trash cans?)

    If they happened to move Abrams to 3B, then move House to 1B. Not a problem. If House makes it, he’ll have the power stats to support playing there. If Morales makes it too, they also need a DH. And if Abrams turns into a pumpkin, well, they’ve got a couple of guys who can play 3B.

    People worry too much about potential “blocking.” The Nats drafted Rendon when they already had an all-star 3B, the “face of the franchise.” They made a major move to acquire Turner when it still looked good for retaining Desmond. Harper was supposed to be a CF, but before his second season in the majors, they gave up a significant prospect to acquire Span. They had just drafted Elijah Green and committed major international money to Vaquero, but when the opportunities presented to trade for Wood and Hassell and then to draft Crews, they didn’t hesitate. You get the talent when you can get it and figure out the details later. Not everyone is going to make it, plus injuries and other things can happen. (Can you imagine how depressed we’d be if Green and Vaquero were still our primary OF hopes?)

    The one thing I would say in behalf of someone like Bregman is that he’s said to be a strong clubhouse presence. When we think about the Abrams situation, that’s definitely something that’s missing. When Harper came up, he had Ankiel and Werth, with Zim telling him to tone down his antics. The current Nats have no established players like that. When they brought in Parra, it was specifically to ride herd on guys like Soto and Robles.

    

    KW

    4 Dec 24 at 1:29 pm
36. @KW, I usually don’t give much credence to “leadership”, but this Nats team has caused me to second guess intangible things like that. The team really is lacking leaders, management included, and this is a rare time I’d buy into the need to sign a guy with a good reputation, and Max Scherzer excluded, you rarely get that role from a SP.

    Maybe this is where a guy like Christian Walker (I know nothing about his clubhouse reputation), who’d normally be a bit too old to align with the club’s window, could make sense to play a bit of a leadership transition role, and takes Crews under his wing? Because Abrams and Wood seem way, way too shy/relaxed to be the clubhouse leader, and Garcia seems to be the kind that just wants to have fun, and not play the enforcer when needed. Maybe Jacob Young could take on that role too? Otherwise, I don’t see who it’d come from.

    

    Will

    4 Dec 24 at 2:42 pm
37. I watched the draft this year on the MLB channel, where Tennessee coach Tony Vitello was one of the commentators. When talking about Christian Moore (#8 pick), he mentioned the importance of Trey Lipscomb as an older player who took Moore under his wing and taught him the ropes. So Lipscomb might be that kind of player . . . if he can improve to the point to make and stay on the MLB roster. He was Wood’s workout partner last winter, and it’s probably not a coincidence that both made the majors this year.

    But no, there’s no real veterans, much less ones who have some investment with the franchise. Maybe Doolittle is filling some of that role with the pitchers. It doesn’t have to be star-level players — Ankiel and Mark DeRosa were key parts of the clubhouse in 2012, and of course Parra’s role in 2019 is well known, as was Brian Dozier’s.

    

    KW

    4 Dec 24 at 7:58 pm
38. Bieber takes 2/$26M with the second year as a player option to stay with Cleveland. I would bet that a lot of teams would have matched or beaten that number. Good for him for his loyalty, plus he stays with a team that won 92 games.

    

    KW

    6 Dec 24 at 10:06 pm
39. Yeah. I was hoping the Nats would get Bieber, but this is the next best thing. And a 1+1 deal is a terrible fit for us. If he was going all-in betting on himself, it makes total sense for him to stay with the Guardians.

    Still, if there was a 65/3 on the table (or a 70/2 with a 100/5 team option, like I was suggesting), that’s a very high risk decision on his part.

    

    SMS

    6 Dec 24 at 11:00 pm
40. Tanner Rainey signs minor-league contract with Bucs (farewell).

    Adames seven years at $26M per with Giants. That’s fair market value in this day and age, perhaps even a good deal for someone only entering his age-29 season. Shortstops and guys who strike out a lot don’t seem to age well, though.

    

    KW

    8 Dec 24 at 10:12 pm
41. And then I wake up to the Soto contract . . .

    — The kid deserves it. If he keeps hitting like he has, he will be an inner-circle Hall of Famer.

    — But why, oh why, do former Nats keep signing in the NL East, just to torment us?

    — The Mets, Dodgers, and Yankees have made a mockery of the nonbinding tax line and created even greater disparity among teams.

    — The 2018 Nats, who didn’t even make the playoffs, may set the record for most players with super-mega contracts. Six guys from that team will end up making more than $200M. Max already had his big contract at the time but then subsequently got shorter ones at $43M per. Rendon will make the most any 3B has ever made, and Soto will do the same for corner outfielders (for any outfielders). I’ve forgotten if Stras or Cole got the larger deal; those still may be the record for a pitcher. Of course the Rendon and Stras contracts turned out to be mega-duds.

    — Remember when Bryce jumped on that not-so-great Philly deal so he could claim to be the “highest paid player ever”? (Which lasted about a week until Trout extended.) Rendon significantly outpaced Harper’s AAV just one winter later, and now Soto’s AAV is basically double Harper’s.

    — Also from that team, Zim made $138M for his career, Murphy $81M, Gio $73M, Kendrick $71M, Roark $46M, and Eaton $42M.

    — Bryce is set to make $377M total, Stras will end up making $355M, Max has made $351M (and maybe more this year), Turner will be at $346M by the end of his contract, and Rendon will end up with $294M. And . . . Juan has already made $80M, so he’ll check in with $845M at the end of the game. Add those six guys together and you get just under $2.6 BILLION. Wow.

    — With the other guys included, the 82-80 Nats of 2018 will end up being a three-billion-dollar squad.

    

    KW

    9 Dec 24 at 9:11 am
42. The Nats’ 2025 payroll is estimated to be at $78m next season.

    The Nats could’ve signed the 5 highest earning free agents so far this winter, under the same terms as what they signed for: Soto ($51m AAV), Blake Snell ($31.4m), Adames ($26m), Severino ($22.3m) and Wacha ($21m), and still be $11m under the luxury tax threshold.

    Even with a flawless rebuild, which we don’t have, this team doesn’t stand a chance, unless they spend big. The gap between us and the “haves” is just so stupendously large, that it will take such an absurd amount of spending, that I don’t think we could even catch up to even if we wanted to.

    You could even add Harper and Ohtani’s contracts to our books in addition to those 5 aforementioned players, and our payroll would still be $36m less than the Dodgers’ payroll is currently.

    And here’s silly me asking we make like 2-3 “big” free agent signings, adding like $40-50m AAV to our payroll, to take us from 26th in payroll to 20th.

    

    Will

    9 Dec 24 at 10:06 am
43. Preach it, Brother Will. For most of the teens, the Nats had a payroll right up against the tax line, and even tripped over it a time or two. And they won a championship. Since then, they’ve slid into the bargain basement. What happened? They’ve literally gone from spending as much as the Yankees to spending as much as the A’s.

    Either spend money or sell the team. It’s insulting to the ticket holders and the city to not even try to put a competitive product on the field. Rizzo and the front office are doing what they can with prospects and third-tier free agents, but their task is virtually impossible.

    Baseball has a real problem with the salary chasm, and will continue to do so until they mandate a floor.

    

    KW

    9 Dec 24 at 2:17 pm
44. To be clear, I’m not saying the Nats should be at the top of the financial arms race. But at least get up in the payroll level of $150M to $200M and be competitive. That was the level they spent, consistently, for all of the 2010s.

    

    KW

    9 Dec 24 at 2:22 pm

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