Nationals Arm Race

"… the reason you win or lose is darn near always the same – pitching.” — Earl Weaver

Welcome to the pre-2025 Off Season

29 comments

The World Series is over. The Yankees bungled away game 5, but let’s be honest, they would have struggled to win a game 6 with Yamamoto dealing and Rodon choking. The Dodgers were just the more powerful, complete team in a year when the NL was just far more stacked than the AL. If it had been the Mets, Phillies, or Padres in the WS instead of the Dodgers, I don’t think we’re looking at much of a different result.

So, now we’re to the off-season. I try to write content throughout the off-season as we hit major deadlines that impact our roster. So, based on the off-season calendar of events, here’s when we’ll try to write to.

  • 10/31/24: Day after WS ends. All MLB FAs officially cut loose into a 5-day exclusive negotiating period that nobody bothers with anymore. The Nats’ 3 remaining FAs that we didn’t already release or trade are Corbin, Williams, and Barnes. We’ve already moved them to the “2025 Releases” tab on the Nats Big Board.
  • 11/4/24: MLB options must be cleared we have one club option that should have already been declined on the .165-hitting Gallo, but that’ll happen soon.
  • 11/4/24: All 60-day DL players must be returned to 40-man. We have 4 players on the 60-day DL (Thompson, Cavalli, Gray, Adon) but only 3 open spots on the 40-man. My guess is that the Nats decline Gallo’s option, then put all four on the roster for a 40/40 slate.
  • 11/4/24: All MLFAs are officially declared. This is always slightly tough to track from the Big Board perspective. We have 11 2024-MLFAs still on minor league rosters as of the end of the season who one might think might automatically become FAs anew, but we really have no idea what kind of deal’s they’ve signed. There’s still a slew of 2023 MLFAs and a handful of older MLFAs still hanging around.
  • 11/4/24: Furthermore, at this stage all 6-year players in the system are declared FAs as well, so this would mean anyone we have who was signed/drafted in 2018 ore before. I count nearly 20 active players we got in the 2018 Draft and another dozen or so 2017 IFA signings still active; are they all now cut loose? The 2020 covid year may factor in here and delay things, but i’m not sure how.
  • When all three of these 11/4/24 deadlines hit, i’ll do a ton of cutting-and-pasting in the Big Board
  • I’m not really into Awards posts anymore, but all throughout Nov and Dec there’s awards announced, finalists, etc.
  • 11/18/24: Hall of Fame Ballot released: i’ll definitely do a post here like I always do, with my fake ballot listing who i’d vote for.
  • 11/19/24: Qualifying Offer responses due in: I’ll wait until all the QOs are resolved to do a post-QO post, which may not happen until well into the spring. QOs drive draft picks, and once the draft order is finalized we’ll post about that too.
  • 11/19/24: Rule5 protection Deadline; we’ll definitely write about this ahead of 11/19: we have a TON of decisions to make, and we have a relatively full 40-man roster right now.
  • 11/22/24: Non-tender deadline; another interesting one for us, b/c it ties into the Rule5 somewhat (if we’re going to non-tender someone to make room for a new prospect, might as well do it before 11/19/24), but we also have a slew of arb-eligible players who may not actually be worth it.
  • 12/10/24: Draft Lottery. By final record, we should be picking 4th. We’re guaranteed not to drop below 7th (I believe).
  • 12/11/24: the actual Rule5 draft; if we gain or lose players will post here.

By this point, we’ll start seeing all the prospect ranking shops start to publish pre-2025 lists, which I love responding to. I’ve already got my draft prospect list going … i’ve got it built out to more than 80 players (which is crazy, b/c we only have like 140 minor leaguers right now) but I can’t wait to publish that list like I did last year.

So, once we get all the MLFA’s declared (here was the 2023 BA list of MLFA declarations officially) i’ll publish a note.

Written by Todd Boss

October 31st, 2024 at 4:36 pm

29 Responses to 'Welcome to the pre-2025 Off Season'

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  1. It’s kinda funny to think about the 40-man being “tight” with a roster that just finished 20 games under .500 (again). There’s A LOT of extraneous material here. Rainey would seem to head the non-tender line, but most of us have no idea why they kept him around through the end of 2024.

    Hassell and Lara are locks for 40-man adds. Andrew Alvarez has a decent possibility. Not sure who else off the top of my head.

    KW

    31 Oct 24 at 10:10 pm

  2. Rule5 protection analysis will show a lot of borderline candidates. I’m not ready to do it just yet.

    Here’s the current state of the 40-man (once Gallo option is declined and 60-day guys return).

    SP: Gore, Irvin, Parker*, Herz*, Rutledge, Ward, Henry , Cavalli (tj rehab), Grey (Flexor Strain/UCL), Adon (bicep strain)
    RP: Finnegan, Ferrer*, Law, RoGarcia*, Salazar, Rainey, La Sorsa*, Brzycky, Ribalta, Willingham, Rucker, Thompson (TJ)
    C: Ruiz, Millas, Adams,
    INF: LGarcia, Tena, Chapparo, Vargas, Baker, Nunez, Lipscomb, Abrams,
    OF: Young, Wood, Crews, Garrett , Call
    DH: Yepez, Meneses

    If i’m looking at this list … I do see some obvious non-tender/DFA candidates right off the bat. I may turn this into a post in and among itself.
    SPs: Henry just can’t stay healthy and should be an easy outright, Adon is out of options (i think) and bad, Rutledge/Ward were awful but Rutledge might be a good reliever. None really merit 40-man spots
    RPs: Rainey has had it, LaSorsa is 4-A guy. The rest are serviceable MLBers or prospects not yet willing to cut, though the team has little invested in Rucker.
    Cs: can’t cut any of these guys right now, with only 3 C on the roster.
    INF: Chapparo might be 4-A but showed flashes and can’t get cut yet. Nunez was a waste of roster space but they’re not going to cut him after carrying him for a year. Everyone else needs to be kept
    OF: Garrett? is he healthy or is he done?
    DH: You can’t carry two DHs; Meneses’ time may be done.

    So that makes a “next guy to get cut” list that looks something like: Henry, Adon, Rainey, Meneses, Ward, Rucker, Adams, Chapparo, Nunez, Garrett

    If we needed to add 3 Rule5 protection, i’d have no problems dfaing/attempting to outright the first 3-4 guys.

    Todd Boss

    1 Nov 24 at 10:37 am

  3. Agree with most of that Todd, but I’d reshuffle the marginal bullpen arms a bit.

    Rainey was much better in the second half (25 IP of ERA < 3). I don't want to overstate that – he still had a FIP over 4 and an xFIP over 5, he still only has one year of control remaining and he exclusively pitched low leverage innings last season. If the team needs his spot, he's gone. But I have him in a group with Rucker, and La Sorsa – guys that have some usefulness but are at the end of the day expendable. They're guys we may cut to sign a FA, but not guys we'll cut to protect Schoff or Sinclair.

    I also think once your list gets down to Nunez and Garrett, you might as well stop. They both have carrying tools, closed the season strong and have multiple option years remaining. I have a hard time coming up with scenarios where either gets cut.

    And I wonder about Adams. I hear you on not having C3 depth behind him, but he's out of options – so he's either C2 or he's getting DFA'd. I think Millas is likely better and should be C2. If the team agrees, then they probably want to DFA Adams now, hoping everyone is too focused on their R5 guys to want to take a flier on a replacement level backup catcher. If it works, great, outright him to Rochester and you get the 40-man spot without losing depth. If someone does claim him, at least you have the whole offseason to sign an MLFA to replace him at C3.

    SMS

    1 Nov 24 at 11:56 am

  4. Yes, Adon is out of options, due directly to their stupidity of adding him to the 40-man at least a year too early.

    With Nunez, they bought three years of options for him to ride the AAA shuttle. Yes, he showed a little life at the end of the season, but not really enough to indicate that he’s a real major leaguer.

    Shortstop really is the crux with the MLB club right now, though. How concerned are they about Abrams’s personal situation? And even if he can get his head screwed on straight, he sucks at, you know, actually playing shortstop. But they have a solid 2B in Garcia (who has already proven that he can’t play SS), and one of their top prospects is at 3B (House). They could look at Abrams in CF, but it would be to defensive detriment over Young. And if Abrams doesn’t play SS, who does? Vargas really isn’t a SS, and neither is Lipscomb. They drafted King and Dickerson, but they’re years away.

    KW

    2 Nov 24 at 11:52 am

  5. It looks (quick eyeball check) like the team has 40 players ticketed to the 40 man roster after Gallo is punted and the free agents depart. To me the Rainey might not even be in the top three of players out the door, as Amos Willingham, Mason Thompson, Joey Meneses, and Michael Rucker would all be easy punts ahead of Rainey. Stone Garrett might be in there, too.

    TL;DR: protecting a couple of Rule 5 risks and making room for potential free agent signings is not going to be much of an obstacle.

    John C.

    2 Nov 24 at 7:48 pm

  6. Everyone has their preferred cuts, and we all agree that 40-man roster space is in no way the limiting factor for the team’s FA pursuits.

    But the immediate concern is R5. Hassell and Lara are two locks. Let’s say that’s Adon and Meneses. Do you drop Rainey or Willingham or Rucker to make room for Alvarez? To make room for Schoff or Sinclair?

    I probably do, but I think it’s really close.

    SMS

    2 Nov 24 at 8:58 pm

  7. The Keith Law analysis of the free agent market is certainly a lot better than the Jim Bowden one (subscription required):

    https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5874781/2024/11/01/mlb-top-50-free-agent-ranking-keith-law/

    Since he wrote, Gerrit Cole did indeed opt out, which is a bit head-scratching since the 4/$144M he left on the table is a hell of a lot of money, particularly for a 34-year-old.

    Law thinks that Burnes will age better than many others think. That said, it does seem to be a bit of a slap in the face to rank him behind Adames.

    As much as I think the Nats need to add starting pitching, I have a hard time getting excited about a significant/long contract for any of the guys on the market.

    KW

    3 Nov 24 at 8:19 am

  8. I agree that the Nats need starting pitching to help settle down the young starters when they have bad game or when they start to run out of gas in the dog days of summer. If the free agent market isn’t the place to look, what is available in the trade market. An article in MLB trade rumors https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/10/top-35-trade-candidates-mlb-offseason.html there was some interesting candidates but what would the Nats have to give up to get one of them. Sox and Cards seem to be sellers.

    The article talks about FIP and SIERA. FIP is used here and Luke’s website as well as others to discuss a pitcher’s ERA vs FIP but how valid is SIERA as I don’t hear it used much.

    rdExposfan

    3 Nov 24 at 12:35 pm

  9. That’s a good list of trade candidates. Thanks for the sharing. There are a number of things that go into the Nats’ trade situation:

    — They’re in a position to take on basically unlimited payroll, certainly more than nearly all contenders. But . . .

    — A lot of those guys with big contracts also have no-trades and really won’t want to go to a non-contender unless given some extra monetary incentive to do so. But . . .

    — The Nats might have the best chase of landing salary-dump guys because they don’t have a lot of their top prospects with whom they’d be willing to part.

    They do have a few, though: “Hey A.J. Preller, would you take Susana back in exchange for Arraez?”

    The other issue is what do the Nats actually need? Well, they need a shortstop, and Bo Bichette likely ain’t coming. He might be worth at least a phone call, though: he’s coming off an injury-riddled season and is only controlled for one more season. Would you trade four years of Abrams for one of Bichette?

    And who the heck knows with pitching. One would think that Fedde’s low salary would make him particularly attractive to contenders. But if a team is willing to take on Arenado’s salary . . . but it would only be for one year of Fedde.

    KW

    3 Nov 24 at 1:23 pm

  10. two teams looking to trim payroll are the 2023 WS participants.

    for a wild and crazy idea, what would the Rangers want for deGrom assuming we took on his salary?

    for a less crazy but one with significantly less upside do you roll the dice on Montgomery regaining some assemblance of his previous self. for all the Dbacks lack of faith in him they did put him back in the rotation for two starts down the stretch.

    both out of the box ideas, not likely to occur. like the Max signing.

    FredMD

    4 Nov 24 at 8:34 am

  11. I wouldn’t mind giving Max something like $20-25M, just on chance that there might be something left in the tank. It’d be worth that much to me for him to finish his career here. There’s no doubt he’d be a tremendous influence on the younger pitchers, just as Doolittle has been.

    The Rangers would only want a couple of broken bats in return for anyone who would take on deGrom’s salary: $40M/38/38/37. This for a guy who hasn’t topped 100 innings since 2019. Wow. For me for something like that to happen, there would need to be a couple of quality younger players coming as well to grease the skids, with the Nats only giving up struggling guys in return like Green/Hassell/Vaquero.

    I do agree on the general concept of something out of the box, and likely risky. Of course I don’t think there’s ANY safe bets with pitching anymore. The Nats have lived all three scenarios: the Max version (great the whole time, HOF quality); the Stras version (injury disaster, same as deGrom); and the Corbin version (solid for a couple of years, followed by a lot of decline). Most of the pending FA pitching contracts will end up either Corbins or Strases. Max’s contract turned out to be an exceedingly rare win. But . . . the Nats never would have won the World Series without making all three of those deals.

    KW

    4 Nov 24 at 10:19 am

  12. And BTW, the Nats are still paying Max $15M a year for the next three years! (Deferred money.) LOL. So he might as well work for us.

    KW

    4 Nov 24 at 11:08 am

  13. Montgomery exercised his option with the Snakes, although considering their owner’s lack of confidence in him, it might not take too much to pry him away.

    The Yankees can void Cole’s opt-out by adding a fifth season at $36M, making it 5/$180M. Currently, Cole is betting that he can get more than 4/$144M elsewhere. It’s an interesting game of chicken.

    Interesting contract projections from Tim Britton at the Athletic:

    https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5893223/2024/11/04/mlb-top-free-agents-juan-soto-contract/

    Max and Verlander available for only $12M apiece.

    KW

    4 Nov 24 at 1:08 pm

  14. And projections from Ben Clemons at FanGraphs:

    https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2025-top-50-mlb-free-agents/

    To me, Burnes flashes “Corbin contract.” He’ll be above average for a year or two, then . . .

    I might be tempted by the 3/$105 that Clemons floats for Snell. I hate the long-term risk of longer contracts with others. And once you get down to the Flaherty level, I’m not sure you’re really improving on what the Nats already have. You would be betting a lot on him sustaining what he seemed to find in 2024.

    KW

    4 Nov 24 at 1:17 pm

  15. LOL, I actually agree with Bowden on something — that the Snakes will be willing to give Montgomery away:

    “After exercising his $22.5 million player option, Jordan Montgomery is traded by the Diamondbacks to the Braves for two minor-league pitchers, with Arizona agreeing to pay half of his salary.”

    That, however, follows on one of the dumbest things he’s ever written:

    “The Nationals ink outfielder Anthony Santander for six years and $142 million, landing the power bat in the first big signing of their rebuild in a deal that’s reminiscent of their past signing of Jayson Werth.”

    What in hell do the Nats, who are overloaded with OF prospects, need with that guy? Yes, 44 homers, but at the expense of a .235 BA, low walk rate, and terrible LF defense. Sorry, but no one pays $142M for a guy with “DH” written all over him.

    https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5890283/2024/11/01/mlb-offseason-predictions-2024-signings-trades/

    KW

    4 Nov 24 at 1:33 pm

  16. Shifting gears, the Hall of Fame has posted the “Classic Baseball Era Ballot”:

    https://baseballhall.org/class-of-2025-classic-baseball-era-ballot

    There are two Negro League guys, who are difficult to evaluate, and two pitchers whose candidacy would look really good now but pretty average compared to contemporaries. (Among JAWS for starting pitchers, Tiant is #59 and John is #86.)

    The post-integration hitters are more easily compared:

    A: .775 OPS, 117 OPS+, 38 WAR, 51st JAWS/position
    B: .810 OPS, 121 OPS+, 40.1 WAR, 42d JAWS/position
    C: .912 OPS, 156 OPS+, 58.7 WAR, 17th JAWS, 10th WAR7
    D: .810 OPS, 116 OPS+, 62.8 WAR, 14th JAWS, 9th WAR7

    Um, why are we even considering A & B? Oh yeah, because they were famous. A is Garvey, B is Parker. Garvey has no case. I wish they’d stop bringing him up. He was one of those “good RBI guys” who other eras used to love.

    (For general reference, Ryan Zimmerman ranks 42d in JAWS at his position and posted 40.1 WAR, .816 OPS, 116 OPS+. Love the guy, but no one is going to be making his HOF argument.)

    In his prime, Parker was Gary Sheffield, probably the most feared hitter in the league. He also had a rocket arm in RF. Over five seasons, he posted 6.3/3.7/7.4/7.0/6.7 WAR, with one MVP and two other top-threes. The last season in that run resulted in a WS win. But it all went to pot, err, coke after that. It’s self-inflicted, and there’s no reason for a Mulligan.

    Just look at the numbers of “C” to see how Parker’s lethality didn’t hold up at all in comparison. Before Parker, the Sheffield of his era was C, Dick Allen. The dude wielded a 40-ounce bat (look it up) and looked like he would use it to beat the crap out of you. The baseball writers hated him, though, and he had a hard time getting HOF traction. (In 1974, Allen led the league in homers and hit .301 yet finished 23d in MVP voting!!!) On the 2021 veterans ballot, he came up one vote short.

    The juxtaposition of Allen and Ken Boyer (D) is interesting. Boyer was a solid bat with a 5x Gold Glove. He did win one MVP, based mostly on 119 RBIs. (His only other “black ink” was for leading all of baseball in caught stealing one season, LOL.) (His brother, Clete, only won one Gold Glove but had twice as much career dWAR. That’s what happens when you spend most of your career playing in the same league with Brooks Robinson.)

    Despite the recent additions of Beltre and Rolen, 3B remains the most under-represented position in the Hall. It’s even more so when you consider that guys like Molitor and Edgar Martinez didn’t spend that much time actually manning the hot corner. (The same can be said of Allen, who played more games and innings at 1B than 3B, so I don’t understand why his candidacy lands at 3B.)

    12 of the 13 at 3B by JAWS and by WAR are in the Hall. Graig Nettles is #12 and not in (.750 OPS, 110 OPS+). Boyer lands at #14, and, after Buddy Bell and Sal Bando, comes Allen at #17. When you sort by WAR7, Boyer is #9 and Allen #10, ahead of guys like Brooks Robinson, Martinez, Rolen, and Molitor.

    Out of curiosity, Allen’s JAWS score would rank him 18th among 1B, just ahead of Mark McGwire and Hank Greenberg and push Freddie Freeman down to #23. So that’s some serious company he keeps, even at a power position (and miles ahead of Garvey). At JAWS7, he moves up to #12, bumping down the Big Hurt a notch (wow), followed by Goldy, Miggy, and Willie McCovey. Allen didn’t end up with the career “counting stats” that those guys had, but that’s some serious company at his peak.

    The guess is that Allen makes it this time, five years after he died. I’m more iffy on Boyer, particularly since Rolen had such a hard time getting in. He was both a better hitter and better defender than Boyer (8x GG, #6 all time in dWAR). If Rolen was the new line that got drawn, then Boyer is under it. But his numbers are still a heck of a lot better than those of a number of guys in the Hall, so it wouldn’t be a travesty by any means.

    KW

    4 Nov 24 at 8:57 pm

  17. Well, the team has done its first four releases, and we were somewhat right with them: Ward, Meneses, Rucker, Vargas.

    I was surprised by Vargas, thinking he was a somewhat valuable clubhouse/versatile guy, but honestly Baker probably gives what Vargas gave. The rest were all players I had very high up on my “next to get released” group.

    40-man now sits at 36/40, room for waiver claims and/or four rule5 protectees.

    Todd Boss

    5 Nov 24 at 9:14 am

  18. Agree that Vargas is the only one of the four where there’s a story there beyond “team doesn’t think they can contribute and wants the roster slot”.

    I can think of three possibilities. One, they have a plan for a new 3B (probably a short term FA or a trade but maybe House gets a trial by fire), and that makes Tena available to cover the utility role. Two, the evaluation on Nunez has solidified to where getting him regular PAs in AAA isn’t a priority and he’s going to cover it. Three, there’s something to that picture of Vargas with Abrams at the casino and the team is actively deciding to move on from his veteran presence in the clubhouse.

    SMS

    5 Nov 24 at 10:52 am

  19. The O’s have already claimed Ward, which is sort of surprising. The other three are listed as “outrighted” to Rochester, so presumably they’re still in the Nats’ system? I know that Vargas is arb-eligible, so would they still have to non-tender him? Meneses was a great story until he crashed to earth.

    KW

    5 Nov 24 at 11:00 am

  20. Ward got claimed, the other three have declared FA. Meneses has 6 years, Rucker was previously outrighted and had the right to refuse, and Vargas has service time.

    I was unaware of Vargas/Abrams picture. that’s not good. Rizzo doesn’t suffer players lightly who do stuff like that, and i’m almost surprised he didn’t get released the next day like he did with Shawn Kelley.

    As far as back-filling Vargas’ skills … they brought up Baker and he can cover middle infield. They brought up Tena and he immediately contributed. They have a top 3B prospect who spent most of 2024 in AAA … maybe its just time to go with House. Or, start Tena, let House get a couple weeks in AAA to save a year, then bring hmi up end of April.

    Todd Boss

    6 Nov 24 at 10:05 am

  21. I think you’re overly optimistic on Baker’s flexibility. In the minors he has only played 2B, LF, and a wee bit of CF. That’s it. They apparently don’t trust him at short and third. The one with more defensive flexibility — and more pop — is Tena. They can also continue to hope that Lipsomb will develop as a hitter. He hit pretty well at AAA. It’s easy to forget that 2024 was only his second full season as a pro.

    SMS holds greater hope for Nuñez than I do. He has no pop, though — career .286 SLG in the minors. For comparison, Baker’s is .354.

    KW

    6 Nov 24 at 11:12 am

  22. Jumping into the thread late, but on additions, my new top choice in free agency is Ha-Seong Kim. I know it’s unlikely, as he seems set on joining some of his friends on the Giants, but he’d be the perfect fit. He can play very good defence at any of 3B, SS or 2B. I foresee Abrams getting moved to 3B if his defense doesn’t improve. But problematically we don’t have anyone close to being able to contributing at SS. Kim would be a perfect contingency plan for Abrams’ future uncertainty. And he wouldn’t outright block House, if House steps it up next season, like Bregman would (or Eugenio Suarez or some other 3B-only player). And I hate to say it, but for as good as Garcia was this season, there’s always the chance he regresses or gets injured, and Kim could slot in at 2B there too.

    Then I’d go after 1 of the top injury SPs (Fried, Bieber, Buehler) and 1 of the Trevor Williams-in-2022 kind of solid innings eating SPs (i.e. Severino, Quintana, or Williams, himself. But Jordan Montgomery would also fit this mold, to be acquired for solely salary relief- good shout, KW), then a handful of reclamation RPs, like last season. For a total outlay of about $50-60m/year. Our salary commitments are currently only around $35m for 2025 at the moment. We could afford that easily and still be well below league average payroll.

    On the waivers players, I should stop being surprised by Rainey’s ability to stick around. He seemed an obvious DFA candidate, but he’s been that way since we claimed him off waivers. Barring a good stint in the shortened 2020 season, he’s never been good. And yet he’s now going to enter his 7th season with the Nationals!

    Ward’s loss is no big deal. He cost us nothing, contributed nothing, and will go down as yet another footnote in successful R5 claims history. I do hope for his sake the Orioles can unlock him the same way they temporarily did with Austin Voth.

    Will

    6 Nov 24 at 11:35 am

  23. Between Abrams (theoretically only SS, but as I mentioned, I see his future at 3B), Tena (2B, SS and – theoretically – 3B capable), Lipscomb (3B, SS, 2B and 1B) Nunez (SS and 2B), Garcia (2B only), and Baker (2B only), Chaparro (1B and – theoretically – 3B, but for whatever reason the Nats seems strongly opposed to using him here, even though he played 3 times as many games at 3B in the minors than any other position, including as recently as this past season while still with the Diamondbacks’ org), and Yepez (1B only). Our 40 man is very well covered in the infield. In fact, we have too many infielders at the moment (8). It makes sense that Vargas was the guy to go. Could someone link me to the Vargas/Abrams casino stuff? Google didn’t yield anything, except that Vargas has been a strong mentor to Abrams.

    I also suspect we will sign another free agent bat to, at a minimum, cover at 1B/DH, since the 3B market is very shallow. Alonso and Walker are the big names, but I could see Rizzo liking a guy like Paul Goldschmidt or Carlos Santana. We are pretty sorely lacking veteran presences, and these guys have loads of experience (but are also well past their primes).

    Will

    6 Nov 24 at 11:47 am

  24. Yeah, I’m with KW on Baker. It’s his arm. Scouting reports aren’t infallible, but every one I’ve read over his whole time in the system calls out his weak arm. Which explains why the team hasn’t given him a single inning on the left side of the infield, at any level. And it’s only 7 throws, and who knows how many of them were soft tosses with plenty of time, but statcast clocked his max MPH last season at 70. That just won’t play.

    I think Baker is our 2B at AAA next year, and he’s actually pretty high on my cut list, probably the next position player to go. I just don’t see how he offers enough to hold down a roster spot.

    On Nunez, it’s not that I think his median projection is that strong (though he’s young enough that improvement is plausible) – it’s more that he plays actual plus SS defense. The bat doesn’t need to clear a very high bar for him to provide value as the primary backup IF.

    If anything, I consider the optimistic take on Nunez to be that he needs a year in AAA, playing every day, and then his bat will improve, and I’m skeptical about that. I expect he’ll always be around a 80 wRC+ hitter. But, with his defense, that’s a perfectly fine bench piece.

    And, Todd, I also don’t want to overstate that bit about the picture. I don’t know any of the context, and just heard back when the Abrams news broke that there was a tweeted pic of them two together at the casino. He could have been there trying to get Abrams to leave, even at the team’s request, or it could have been early on and before Abrams developed a problem. The team hosted events at MGM, for god’s sake. I only brought it up because I was trying to think through the somewhat surprising DFA.

    SMS

    6 Nov 24 at 11:59 am

  25. Abrams remains THE defining question mark of the offseason: Do they keep him? Do they trust him? Do they bring in someone else to play SS? (Todd could probably do a whole post about guys who Rizzo unloaded for perceived transgressions, including Shawn Kelley, Jerry Blevins, Austin Adams, and more or less Tyler Clippard. I just looked and didn’t realize how lights-out Kelley was in 2018 after the Nats unloaded him.)

    Will, I’ve looked at Ha-Seong Kim, and he’s not scheduled to be healthy until May or June. He hit .233 last year and slugged only .370. The Nats may bet that Tena can at least replicate those numbers, if not better them. I do think a Kim signing would make more sense than going after Adames, though, . . . if they were to look for a SS.

    Offseasons are so unpredictable. Daniel Murphy was option #3 or 4. Scherzer wasn’t on anyone’s radar, and Werth hardly was either. Corbin was universally thought to be bound for the Yankees. The Gio trade happened two days before Christmas, usually a slow period.

    But once we sign Soto, everything else will fall into place 😉

    KW

    6 Nov 24 at 2:51 pm

  26. Here is a list minor league free agents released from the Nats https://x.com/CoachDrewScott/status/1854359548024304098

    rdExposfan

    6 Nov 24 at 11:09 pm

  27. Thanks rd … i was just coming here to post the same.

    here’s the direct link from Baseball America.https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/minor-league-free-agents-2024/

    They missed a few; i’m catching up the big board now and probably will do a quickie post on it when i’m done.

    Todd Boss

    7 Nov 24 at 9:41 am

  28. New Posted on MLFAs.

    Todd Boss

    7 Nov 24 at 10:24 am

  29. After I posted this link, I stumbled onto the list posted on BA. I don’t have subscription so I was surprised to access it. Thanks for the update post on MLFAs. Thank you for all your hard work with your insightful posts and keeping the Big Board updated.

    rdExposfan

    7 Nov 24 at 1:28 pm

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