Nationals Arm Race

"… the reason you win or lose is darn near always the same – pitching.” — Earl Weaver

Should we leverage our Catching depth in a trade?

4 comments

Jesus Flores' general reaction to his injury troubles for the past two seasons. Photo Toni Sandys/Washington Post

MASN Nats beat writer Ben Goessling touched on this same issue back in December and came to the same conclusion that I have: The Washington Nationals may have some catching depth to spare when April 1st rolls around.  We have Ivan Rodriguez and Wilson Ramos as the incumbents (having DFA’d last year’s backup Wil Nieves, since signed by Milwaukee).  But we also have former starter Jesus Flores coming back from injury and seemingly healthy.   Plus our #1 hitting prospect not named Bryce Harper is Derek Norris, also a catcher.

At the end of the spring, I think we’re going to see Flores winning out the 2nd catcher position (by virtue of his age, his experience with the team, and the memory of his 130 OPS+ numbers he put up in 2009 before getting hurt).  But there’s little value in having one of the better Catching prospects in all of baseball languishing in Syracuse while we wait to see if Pudge or Flores suffers an injury.

I can see the Nats moving Ramos or Flores if the right deal comes about.  But, the Nats probably need an entire spring training of production out of both guys to prove to other teams that they are healthy and viable candidates.  Flores might be a tough sell to teams since he missed most of the last two seasons and seems brittle … but his numbers when he’s healthy are middle-of-the-order.  Meanwhile the entire league knows what Ramos is capable of and he may be a better trade candidate.

Also factoring in is the development of Derek Norris; at this point we’re all assuming he’s going to start in AA and be ready to take over one of the two MLB catcher spots when Pudge’s contract expires after this season.  If Norris takes a huge step back or suffers a season-ending injury, then nobody is going anywhere and the Nats will plan for Ramos/Flores platoon in 2012.

The Nats still have needs at the MLB level for 2011 though; you can argue that we really could improve at LF, CF and in the starting rotation.  Meanwhile, there are several teams out there going into 2011 with question marks at catcher.  Looking at these depth charts league wide, here’s some possible trade partners (barring injury to existing guys of course):

  • LA Angels: Jeff Mathis and Hank Conger are their current catcher starters.  Who?  Conger is very young but neither hit the Mendoza line for 2010.  But the Angels so badly bungled this off season they may be reticent to make any more trades.
  • LA Dodgers: Gave up on Russell Martin, so going into 2011 with journeyman Rod Barajas (career .239 hitter) and AJ Ellis (turns 30 in april and has a grand total of 141 major league plate appearances to his credit).  They have starter depth (Padilla looks to be odd man out and would improve our rotation).
  • Boston: Jarrod Saltalamacchia is listed as the starter over the ancient Jason Varitek; neither guy can actually hit and both are defensive liabilities.  Boston is clearly making a playoff push and may want a top-end defensive guy behind the plate for the playoffs.
  • Colorado: Chris Iannetta only hit .197 last year but has shown glimpses of power in the past.  Colorado let their 2010 starter (Soto) walk but they may have a hole at the Catcher position.
  • Milwaukee: we could convince the Brewers to upgrade from up and comer Jonathan Lucroy for their 2011 playoff push.  But they’ve emptied their farm system and probably have little we would want in return.
  • NY Yankees: are they really expecting Russell Martin to be the savior?  Or is there going to be a C/DH platoon with him and Posada (more likely the answer).
  • NY Mets: catcher has been a thorn in this team ever since the Nats “stole” Flores from them in the rule5 draft in 2006.  Now they’re going into 2011 with the very young Josh Thole as the starter.  But the Mets are a total mess right now and probably don’t make any more moves until the Madoff lawsuits are settled.
  • Kansas City, Pittsburgh, San Diego and Houston teams that *could* use catcher depth but which would never purchase it given their current rebuilding status (or cheapness as a franchise).

It should be interested to see if a trade surfaces early on into the season.  We’ll see.

Written by Todd Boss

February 9th, 2011 at 10:12 am

Posted in Nats in General

4 Responses to 'Should we leverage our Catching depth in a trade?'

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  1. Forget about trading with Yankees – Martin is nothing more than a placeholder for Jesus Montero, with Francisco Cervelli as the backup catcher. Posada may catch an occasional game, but the Yankees want to see how he hits without the wear & tear of catching. Further, their minor league system is the only one that has arguably more depth at catcher than the Nats system does; Austin Romine is regarded by some as the true catcher of the future there, and they have some good prospects in the lower minors as well.

    That said, several of the other teams (especially the Red Sox and the Angels) are interesting trade possibilities and well worth monitoring.

    John C.

    9 Feb 11 at 6:13 pm

  2. Damn, totally forgot about Montero, good call.

    I keep reading that the Dodgers are perfectly happy to put Padilla in long relief; he’s on a very good contract and serves as good insurance over their other starters. Boston could be interesting; they really want to dump Papelbon and his escalating salary and put Bard in his spot and we could use a closer (I personally don’t think Storen is quite ready). I don’t know the Angels farm system (other than they have Trout) but they don’t seem to have any spare starting pitchers…

    Todd Boss

    9 Feb 11 at 7:04 pm

  3. The key word with Flores is ‘seemingly’. Bet he starts the year at Syracuse and works his way back.
    You forgot Milwaukee has absolutely nothing left to trade.

    Mark L

    14 Feb 11 at 8:25 am

  4. Milwaukee certainly has gone all in for 2011. I go back and forth on Flores. One day I remember that he was hitting the cover off the ball in early 2009 and it looked like he was a #5 hitter. Then the next day I remember that he missed the entirety of 2010 over an injury that initially was diagnosed as a 2-week fix.

    Todd Boss

    14 Feb 11 at 12:17 pm

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