Lots of pundits think the Nats are taking Fedde at #18. Photo via chicagonow.com
The annual amateur/Rule-4 draft is upon us. Wendy Thurm posted a nice overview of the festivities, kicking off today, June 5th. Who is going at the top, and who do we think the Nats are going to take with their first round draft pick (#18 overall?)
Lets check in with some experts and pundits. Unlike in years past, there’s no real consensus #1 overall pick this year thanks to a host of factors. But the top-5 is relatively consistent no matter who the pundit. We’ll talk about predictions for the first few picks plus who they think the Nats will end up with. (Link to the draft order for the first few rounds to show all the missing picks and supplemental additions from MLB.com). Note that all the Keith Law and Jim Bowden links are ESPN insider. Profiles on the frequent top-5 picks and the names being associated with the Nats potential picks are below the list of pundit’s mock drafts:
- MLBDraftInsider’s Chris Crawford has done a host of Mock Drafts this spring (the sixth version dated 5/28/14 and the “near final” version on 6/2/14, his penultimate mock on 6/3/14, his “really final” board on 6/4/14 and his “final mock ever” on 6/5/14) and in his last mock has come down on the Nats taking Hoffman. Predicted top 5 in final mock: Aiken, Rodon, Nola, Conforto, Gordon. Same movements that Law is projecting at the final minute.
- ESPN’s Keith Law put out his first mock draft on 5/16/14, his second on 5/27/14, his third on 6/4/14 and his final/last on 6/5/14 and had the Nats on Erick Fedde, calling it a “lock” in the industry. Top 5 in the latest mock: Aiken, Rodon, Nola, Conforto, Gordon (only list on here without Kolek in top 5).
- MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo posted a mock on 5/16/14, another on 5/30/14. One last one 6/5/14. In his latest he went Aiken, Jackson, Rodon, Kolek, Gordon. He has the Nats taking Jeff Hoffman, saying that it could come down to “financials” and who is willing to go over-slot.
- MLB.com’s Jim Callis posted his latest mock on 5/23/14 and one last one 6/5/14. He went Aiken, Jackson, Rodon, Gordon, Kolek. He has the Nats on Hoffman as well, but in the description basically says he says Hoffman could go top 10 and/or the Nats could take Fedde.
- MinorLeagueBall’s Matt Garrioch posted his first mock draft early (3/10/14), his second on 5/19/14. His top 5: Rodon, Kolek, Aiken, Jackson, Gordon. He has the Nats on Kyle Schwarber.
- ESPN’s Jim Bowden posted his Top-10 picks on 5/28/14, trying to think like the GM of each top-10 picking team, and went Rodon, Aiken, Kolek, Jackson and wildcard Freeman.
- BaseballAmerica’s John Manuel has posted mock drafts on 5/9/14, 5/16/14 and v3.0 on 5/25/14 and his final the day of the draft 6/5/14. His top 5 in his most recent mock: Aiken, Rodon, Kolek, Conforto, Gordon, with the Nats on Fedde.
- GradingontheCurve’s Shaun Kernahan put up his mock draft 5/29/14. He went Aiken, Rodon, Kolek, Jackson, Gordon with the Nats on Gatewood.
- MinorLeagueBall did a community Mock Draft on 5/30/14 (so, not full of expert opinion but interesting nonetheless to see what the crowd-sourced opinion on players is). They went Aiken, Jackson, Rodon, Kolek, Gordon with the Nats taking Conforto. Based on where Conforto is now being projected, there’s little chance he survives to #18.
- BaseballInstinct’s Thomas Belmont has a top-200 draft board that isn’t a mock draft but lists top 5 as Aiken, Jackson, Kolek, Rodon and Toussant. #18 is Grant Holmes, who I would be surprised if the Nats picked despite his pedigree. He posted his mock draft on 6/4/14 where he follows his board, but I have a problem with his rankings considering what the professional reporters above are showing for top 5 and for the Nats.
- PerfectGame’s Patrick Ebert posted a bunch of mock drafts; in his last one on 6/4/14, he went top-5 of Aiken, Rodon, Kolek, Gordon, Nola with the Nats on Bradley Zimmer.
- Si.com’s Dave Perkin (a former professional scout who does some writing) posted a last-minute mock 6/5/14 online. He goes Aiken, Rodon, Kolek, Freeland, Jackson with the Nats on Beede. I like this scenario.
How do I think the top 5 will go? I like Aiken #1, Rodon to the Marlins (for the cuban-american/quick to the majors factors), then Kolek. From there I have no idea; the Cubs by all accounts want a college arm but the next best one (Nola) isn’t worth the #4 spot. Maybe they take a college bat (Conforto?), maybe they go BPA. I’m guessing they bite the bullet and play the hand that they’ve been dealt and get Jackson or Gordon 4th, with the other going 5th.
ACTUAL DRAFT RESULTS: Aiken, Kolek, Rodon, Schwarber and Gordon. Who was closest? hard to tell; Schwarber came out of nowhere, and nearly everyone had Rodon before Kolek.
A quick overview of the names in discussion for top 5 selection:
- Carlos Rodon: lhp from NC State; was the heavy consensus 1-1 overall pick all winter, but a rough spring and high pitch counts have dropped him on most people’s mock boards. Scout.com has a detailed scouting report and video. Scouting Video from Keith Law.
- Brady Aiken is a prep lhp from San Diego who could be just the third high school pitcher ever picked #1 overall. Scout.com has a detailed scouting report and video. Keith Law scouting video.
- Alex Jackson is a prep C also from the San Diego area. Scout.com has a detailed scouting report and video. Scouting video from Keith Law.
- Tyler Kokek is a prep RHP from Texas with big time stuff; 100mph velocity on his fastball. Scouting video from Keith Law.
- Aaron Nola is a polished RHP friday starter for LSU who may not overpower you with velocity, but is a good pitcher. Scouting Video from Keith Law.
- Nick Gordon is a prep SS from Florida. Scouting Video from Keith Law.
- Michael Conforto is a junior OF from Oregon State.
- Kyle Freelan is a lhp junior starter from Evansville. He has good velocity, a good slider and great control.
- Max Pentecost is a C from Kennesaw State who may be a stretch to go top-5 but should be top-10.
- Touki Toussaint is a prep RHP from Miami, FL who is considered the second best prep RHP arm behind Kolek; he doesn’t quite have the velocity but he has better secondary stuff.
MLB.com reports that seven of these guys will be in-studio during the draft (all high schoolers), including a couple that may drop out of the first round (could be a bit embarassing for both them and MLB).
The names associated/predicted with the Nat’s #18 overall pick:
- Erick Fedde was UNLV’s friday starter before going down with the dreaded Tommy John injury, diagnosed on 5/10/14. Before his injury Fedde was projected in the same general area where the Nats are picking … which makes me question this prediction. I could understand if Jeff Hoffman falls (a projected top -5 pick) to #18 grabbing him … but here I don’t know if I’d agree with picking a guy who you won’t see for a year and a half in uniform. Though that being said, BA had Fedde ranked #8 in their top-200 pre-injury draft rankings, so perhaps grabbing him at #18 could be appropriate.
- Tyler Beede: RHP Vanderbilt starter, who was a projected top-10 pick thanks to his amazing sophomore season (14-1, 2.32 ERA and a Golden Spikes finalist), before a rough season (7-7, 3.49 ERA and 92/41 k/BB in 91 innings) dropped his draft status. He turned down a big bonus out of HS as a Toronto 1st rounder and that apparently (combined with unknown/unstated “make-up” issues) has him dropping fast. Personally, I think he could be a steal at #18. BA’s Aaron Fitt profiled Beede on 5/29/14. Scouting Video from Keith Law.
- Kyle Schwarber, C/1B power hitter from Indiana. Listed as 6’0″, 240. .340/.450/.623 on the year with 12 homers, 27/41 K/BB ratio in 215 ABs. Great numbers if he’s really a catcher; some listed him as C, others at 1B. Question: Big10 baseball isn’t exactly the SEC; are his stats padded thanks to playing a bunch of weak programs all year?
- Jeff Hoffman was ECU’s friday starter and a consensus top-5 predicted pick (perhaps as high as #3) before being felled by TJ surgery (diagnosed on 5/8/14). I think he’s a huge long-shot to make it to #18 because Toronto picks twice in the top 11 picks and it makes complete sense for them to use their 2nd pick to take Hoffman, save some slot money and basically temper their draft risk by virtue of having a second high pick. Scouting Video from Keith Law.
- Jacob Gatewood is a prep SS from Fresno, California who has a ton of power for a middle-infield bat (he won the prep home run derby held during last year’s all-star game festivities), even if he has to move off Short to 3B. Gatewood gets some mention as a potential Nats pick, but this seems very much out of Mike Rizzo‘s style. I cannot see the Nats taking a high school player unless someone falls to them unexpectedly. Scouting Video from Keith Law.
- Casey Gillaspie is a 1B from Wichita State with huge power numbers in 2014: .389/.520/.682 with 15 homers and 28/58 K/BB ratio in 211 ABs. But, like with Schwarber, do you draft a guy who is already locked into first base? Are his numbers a mirage thanks to the weaker Missouri Valley Conference?
- Michael Chavis is a prep OF/3B from Georgia who Crawford has the Nats taking in his mock draft … but which I cannot believe will happen. I just don’t see Rizzo taking a HS player, practically ever, unless there’s huge upside or value.
- Brandon Finnegan: friday LHP starter for national seed TCU. Undersized but a big-time arm. Not the prototypical pick for Rizzo (he likes big, tall guys).
- Grant Holmes is a big RHP prep pitcher from South Carolina who likely goes before #18, but if he’s sitting here he could get a look.
- Bradley Zimmer is an OF with a brother already in pro ball from San Francisco.
Who do I like for the Nats at #18? Honestly, I think picking TJ surviver Fedde at #18 might be an overdraft. Now, if Hoffman fell there I’d grab him … but most pundits put Hoffman at #11 (Toronto’s extra 1st rounder). I’d love to take a crack at Tyler Beede; he was so good last year and I don’t think he’s forgotten how to pitch. I like Finnegan too. Maybe they go with a college bat. But one thing seems certain; I just cannot see one of these HS names at #18. I think they’ll take someone whose quicker to the majors.
ACTUAL DRAFT RESULTS: In what may have been the worst kept secret of the draft, Nats take Fedde.
This draft seems like it could be one of those unusual ones that surprise everyone with players jumping all over the place. With that caveat, I’d say that my wish list, based on reading some of these lists but not looking at any of the video, is (1) Hoffman, (2) Conforto, (3) Luis Ortiz or (4) Chavis.
Not really that interested in Fedde or some of the others names I have heard associated with us, but I know less about this than I do about the other stuff, which is saying something.
Wally
5 Jun 14 at 2:49 pm
If Hoffman falls to 18, you grab him. He was a top 5 pick consensus, across the board before getting hurt.
I like Conforto; i’d like that pick. Smooth swing, good power and good hit tool.
I’m less into one of these HS kids unless a big-time name drops to us. Touki Toissant or someone like that.
Todd Boss
5 Jun 14 at 3:38 pm
I’m split on Fedde. I saw more than one prospect ranking pre Injury that already had him in the 18-20 range. So then he hurts his arm, and the Nats are projected to draft him there anyway? don’t buy it. He was good, but not *that* good. Giolito dropped 15 spots and that was without the surgery … now teams are going to take a guy who isn’t as good and just drop him a handful of spots? TJ surgeries aren’t 100% …its a risk to take these guys.
Todd Boss
5 Jun 14 at 3:40 pm
Both picks were boring for me. I trust Rizzo though.
How great would it be if they played hardball with Fedde, at say $1m (’cause what choice does he really have? Who’ll give him big money in next year’s draft when he is unlikely to even be back in a game yet?), and threw $1.5m at Jake B? Now that would be a great draft (although it would suck for Fedde). Although if they were going to try that, I suspect they’d have done it with the 2d pick (more slot money to use).
Wally
6 Jun 14 at 9:41 am
The action starts today; after all, who would have expected that the A – and A+ organizational All-Stars in 2014 would have lower draft positions?
Pivetta #4, Voth #5, Walsh #34 (!) and an extended spring training product, Kieboom #5, Perez #7, and Pleffner even lower.
Perhaps Suarez, desirable yes because of being an LHP starter at a time when Purke and Solis (and Det) are questionable, is also a signability pick that gives the Nats risk room on a lower draft pick? Round 3 turned out fine, in 2013 yes, with Drew Ward over slot. Other teams with HS choices in Round 2 may not be so fortunate.
Team pattern appears to be higher ceiling. And as we all know that it is not all about velocity, perhaps the high ceiling of Fedde stems from reviews that he has two plus pitches already and most important, throws nothing straight.
Obviously the prospect landscape changes so quickly. Barely June and we’ve seen a cadre of folks flame out of get hurt, but others for whom the mental and physical light came on in a big way. Again, proving the players and development has the final say and nt the pundits.
Auburn still benefits from quite the complement of arms in XST who are GCL leftovers. The success of Hagerstown speaks loudly to a stockpile of starters who were hurling long relief. Even with so many injuries in the system, still a logjam in the lower minors.
We’ll see a lot of folks like Turnbull and Mooneyham on shorter leashes now.
Would be nice to get more power wattage in the system. Buckle up!
forensicane
6 Jun 14 at 10:11 am
AJ Cole, Karns, and Ray worked out over slot. I wonder whether that is what they have planned, and with whom?
forensicane
6 Jun 14 at 10:14 am
Both Fedde and Hoffman are kind of in a tough spot: they literally have to sign. They both got surgery in May, so that puts them to next May in a best case before they’re pitching, meaning that they’ll miss their entire senior years while rehabbing. I talked about this at more length when Hoffman got his surgery-announcement as for the reasons why they’re going to sign.
So yeah … I could see the team playing some hardball with him. Slot value for the #18 pick is $2.145 million. Only thing that prevents me from thinking this would work is his representation (Boras), who would probably advise his client to wait it out.
I wonder; is Bukauskas really worth that much? Strong committment, currently has a shoulder issue, mechanics are messy, max-effort kind of thrower, and he’s a pop-up guy, came out of nowhere, HSer. All of that spells high high risk for a team led by Rizzo. Just don’t see it.
Todd Boss
6 Jun 14 at 10:19 am
Forensicane: those over-slot deals are gone. Cole got $2M in the 4th round; that’s mid-1st round money. They just can’t offer that kind of money anymore, unless they drafted nothing but college seniors the rest of the way. MLB went out of their way to completely screw amateurs and low-budget teams that depend on the draft to find taelnt in this way, in explicably to me. But this is the side effect.
Todd Boss
6 Jun 14 at 10:20 am
There are at least a couple of things here worth discussing. One is the Nats’ continuing willingness to draft wounded ducks. That worked well for them with Rendon (not a pitcher), seems to be working with Giolito, but appears to have failed with Purke and some others. I guess the counter argument would be that it’s a crap shoot anyway, so why not go for guys with higher potential upside than healthy, average players (Mooneyham comes to mind).
The other issue is the extreme focus on using top picks on pitchers. As discussed over the winter, this is an organization loaded with arms–to the point that they could trade trade Ray, Krol, and Karns and have Jordan stashed in AAA–but it is very thin on position players, particularly infielders. After the career-saving bounce-backs by Souza and Hood and with Taylor starting to live up to the high expectations, OF options in the upper minors look pretty solid. (Unfortunately for those guys, the Nats seem to have a new leftfielder with a LONG contract.)
The Zimmerman point leads to a broader one–where does the big club most likely need help in the foreseeable future? If the Nats don’t pick up the LaRoche option, the internal choices would be Zimmerman, Werth (moving a lot slower in the OF these days), or Skole, who struggled early but seems to be finding his stroke. CF would go to Harper or Taylor (heir apparent Goodwin is struggling). Replacements for Soriano already abound in the ‘pen. The bigger off-season would be after 2015, when the due date is up on Desmond, Zimmermann, and Fister. There are plenty of arms who will be in play by then, including Giolito and Cole, but very few IF, unless you believe that Walters is an everyday player for a contender. The IF problem compounds if Espinoza continues to struggle at the plate. (Drew Ward won’t be ready by 2015 and is a corner guy anyway.)
So I guess all of this is a very roundabout way of saying it’s time to invest some high picks on shortstops!
KW
6 Jun 14 at 10:56 am
Drafting injured players. Yeah, high risk, high reward. I talked exactly about this issue (and Purke and Rendon) in this June 2012 post. I think my general opinion at the time was this: “you can roll the dice on a guy who might have been 1-1 once in a while .. but not over and over.” That strategy has (as you’ve noted) left us with winning gambles (so far) on both Rendon and Giolito, but losing gambles on Purke.
But there’s side effects too; we had to pay over slot for Giolito. We massively paid overslot for Purke. And that led us to basically punt huge parts of those drafts by signing under-slot/college seniors.
I don’t have an issue drafting more and more arms. If Rizzo has a proven track record of developing pitching talent, why not? Trade for the bats you need. Everyone knows that the single most valuable resource in the majors is the pre-arbitration effective major league starter.
Right now, you look at the 25 guys on the MLB roster (i’ll use the 25 guys who would encompass the roster w/o injury issues)
Pitchers:
Drafted/Developed: Strasburg, Zimmermann, Storen, Stammen, Barrett, Detwiler
Traded for: Gio, Fister, Roark, Clippard, Blevens,
FA: Soriano
Fielders:
Drafted/Developed: Rendon, Desmond, Espinosa, Zimmermann, Harper, Moore
Traded For: Ramos, Lobaton, Span, Hairston
FA: LaRoche, Werth, McLouth
So that’s 12/25 drafted, 9/25 acquired via trade and just 4 FAs (three of which “start”). But look at all the acquisitions. A lot of those trades were done with pitching prospects. Ramos for Capps, Lobaton for Karns, Span for Meyers, Hairston for Pinyero, Gio for Milone, Cole, Peacock (and hitter Norris), Fister for basically Ray and two fringe hitters, Clippard for Albaladejo. Only two of these trade acquisitions were solely involving position players (Roark for Guzman and Blevens for Burns).
That’s pretty amazing, actually, the number of arms we’ve shipped out.
Zimmerman in left? I wouldn’t mind putting him in 1B long term and moving Werth to left frankly. Keep an infielder in the infield and an outfielder in a lower leverage outfield position as they age. Stick Harper in RF where his gun prevents first-to-thirds. Cross fingers that Goodwin/Taylor/someone can become a competent centerfielder longer term. But yea, we’re very thin on middle infielders in the pipeline. May have to depend on another big trade.
The Nats after 2015 are almost a blank slate right now. I have no idea what’ll happen other than my guess that we’re going to lose practically all our big names.
Todd Boss
6 Jun 14 at 11:38 am
Zim in LF is an interesting experiment – and I think it is just that. If it works, maybe he stays there for next season and beyond. If it doesn’t, he goes to 1B. All things considered, I think Zim is going to have more mobility in the OF than Werth. Also, I don’t think Zim will be back at 3B. I think he will realize this as he gets to play (relatively) without pain for the first time in years.
As for drafting, the Nats can afford to be in best-player-available mode, in large part because they do have so arms as trade chips. I do suspect, however, that they were looking for signing discounts yesterday (relatively speaking with Boras involved!). Will that translate into drafting a couple of tough-to-sign, high upside guys today? Stay tuned . . .
KW
6 Jun 14 at 12:12 pm
Todd, I know the rules changed from Cole, but I am saying something a little different. The team went over slot for Ward last year. They did their homework and got him. I would not be surprised if some monies can be allocated, because of these top 2 picks to try to pull a pick away from college whom others have given up on Just saying.
forensicane
6 Jun 14 at 12:31 pm
Well yeah, they went slightly over slot for Ward in order to get him. There will never been a $4M deal for Purke in the 4th round, or a 800k deal for Ray in the 11th round again. I remember one blogger counting all the slot savings that they were going to need to sign Ward or Giolito.
It is entirely conceviable that they cut a pre-draft deal with Boras/Fedde for under slot, with Fedde knowing the same thing that Hoffman knew; he’s lost all his leverage and should be lucky to get a halfway decent bonus as it stands.
Todd Boss
6 Jun 14 at 1:26 pm
F.P. said yesterday that his signing bonus as a 20th rounder was $1K. He was happy to get it and cashed his check at a 7/11.
Thanks to Baseball Reference, I looked up that 20th round, and nine picks after F.P., the other Canadian team took a SS from Cal named Jeff Kent. So you never know.
KW
6 Jun 14 at 2:14 pm
Reetz has “signability questions,” committed to Nebraska. So there we go.
You may be right about Fedde before the draft. Harper’s tweet’s seemed to be remarkably prescient.
I can’t see Suarez pushing a hard bargain with his injury history, either.
forensicane
6 Jun 14 at 3:36 pm
Here is another point to consider with the draft, and the team’s organizational performance:
1) Clearly, much more talent is coming in from the Dominican. They’ve righted the ship and that was the message of the 2013 GCL Nats.
2) The highest level achieved of a 2013 draftee thus far? John Simms, an 11th round pick, who busted out at Potomac today with 14Ks in 7 innings. He was a junior and they reeled him in. Point being, while the top picks get the high ratings, you still have to deliver on the field.
3) The 2013 draft has had a number of accomplished players, at #2, 3, 4, 5, 7, 10, 11, 12, 15, 21, 25, 28, 30, 31, 34. The scouts are doing their job when your #34 (Walsh) makes the all star team and your #30 (Ullman) has an ERA below 1.00.
4) Lots more HS players drafted this year. This, too must reflect on the system feeling it can wait on players to develop. Let’s see who signs.
5)Auburn has to be noticeably improved this year. There are still quite a few talents from the GCL team that have not yet surfaced — the entire infield and at least two outfielders, and a few of the pitchers like Ott.
6) Team also drafted much more for power this year. Depending, of course, on who signs.
forensicane
7 Jun 14 at 9:55 pm
Also, just to reinforce my point about signing over slot, Ward was paid more than Johanssen! Almost twice over slot. They must really want that catcher from Nebraska.
Perhaps the recent history suggests one can never have too much catching, either.
forensicane
7 Jun 14 at 9:59 pm
I have a top-10 look that talks about what I think about signability … I think the nats took at least 6 guys who are signing underslot deals, and will use that money to help sign Reetz and the Juco guy (whose name escapes me at the moment).
Todd Boss
9 Jun 14 at 11:01 am
Two other folks (besides Reetz) to keep an eye on are Jr. collegian Austin Byler, 9th rd pick, and the 11 round high school pick Weston Davis, committed to University of Florida.
Byler’s slot goes at 100K. He told local press that he told teams he wants 350-400K because he expected to go higher. The Nats still drafted him.
Davis was their highest high school selection. The Gators school newspaper is not so convinced he would not go pro.
Part of scouting is getting a sense of the numbers and whether someone is ready to go pro rather than get every cent they can. Kline certainly made it sound as if they knew Dickey, the fourth round pick, is an easy sign.
forensicane
9 Jun 14 at 11:42 am
Davis the highest high school selection after Reetz, I mean.
So few high schoolers before the thirties, you have to think that they know ahead of time that these folks may be signable, like the guy they took at #18.
Travis Ott turned out pretty well, didn’t he? And 18 years old to start at Auburn.
forensicane
9 Jun 14 at 11:45 am
http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/mlb-draft/post/_/id/2032/complete-nl-draft-breakdown
So, Law seems to think Fedde was at least a top 10, perhaps a top 5 pick prior to injury. I just didn’t see that analysis prior to his drafting. I guess i’m “more ok” with the pick.
By most reports, the way drafting goes in the new slot-based CBA is that the team calls the kid, says “will you sign for $x yes or no?” And if they say no, the team moves on. The penalties are so draconian for going over the slots and/or teams have to move so much freight to free up $100k to do an over-slot deal that you just have to draft this way now. So i’m guessing that Reetz gave them a number, it was above slot, so the Nats drafted seniors and $1000 bonus guys in order to pay him.
Todd Boss
10 Jun 14 at 8:10 am
Nice summary of the Nats draft from mlb.com (whose draft coverage I think has been really awesome this year).
http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article/was/experience-pitching-highlight-nationals-draft?ymd=20140607&content_id=78728492&vkey=news_was
Todd Boss
10 Jun 14 at 11:30 am
Intel
#3 Reetz signed
#5 Van Orden signed
#6 Williams signed
#7 Carey signed
#11 Weston Davis signed
#16 Cole Plouck signed
#23 Chris Riopedre signed
#27 Conor Keniry signed
forensicane
10 Jun 14 at 11:15 pm
Keller (17) and Page (10) signed and already listed with Auburn, which has quite the full roster already.
forensicane
11 Jun 14 at 1:39 am
Wow, Reetz signing so quickly is amazing to me. I’m going to post my top 10 review today, then a local review of picks tmrw.
Todd Boss
11 Jun 14 at 8:12 am