Nationals Arm Race

Note; stop reading now if you’re one of those people who hate to hear about fantasy teams or analysis of leagues.  I understand your point; its kinda like hearing someone go on and on about how their ugly baby just did the cutest thing last week.

I’m in a modified 5×5 yahoo league with 9 other fantasy baseball nuts (of all the fantasy sports, baseball tends to have the biggest nerds I think.  Well, perhaps fantasy golf or fantasy nascar).  We’ve modified the typical 5×5 categories to add in a 6th category on both sides.  We put in OPS on the hitter side and Losses on the pitcher side.  We made this change a few years back when one of the players won by churning and burning starting pitchers over and over to stock-pile wins and Ks.

Before going into my draft results and analysis, a few notes on my strategy for picking baseball teams:

• I like pitching and I like to analyze pitching, so I focus on pitchers.  I like to have the bare minimum of hitters and load up on pitchers.  This strategy can be questioned; the clear winner last year had a bare minimum of pitchers but tons of hitter depth and was tough to beat.
• I try to focus on NL starters with good K rates.  I try to avoid AL pitchers if I can, and I especially try to avoid AL east pitchers because of the gauntlet of great hitting teams they face.
• I try to get 5 closers.  This can be tough, especially in a 10-person league with only (theoretically) 30 closers to go around.  However, I try not to overpay for closers.  Two years ago I experimented with a Zero closer system and it did not fare as well as I thought it would.
• Do not overpay for a Catcher.  I’ve been burned so many times on catchers going down with injuries (in the past three years I’ve dealt with Varitek, Russell Martin and Victor Martinez injuries or inadequacies, going to the waiver wire each time).

Here’s my team’s draft results.  I was picking 2nd in a 10-man league with a typical snake-style draft order.

1. Hanley Ramirez.  Pujols goes first; I could have gone with Tulowitzki here but I opted to go with a guy who has been a bit more consistent (and less injury prone) at the #2 spot.
2. Matt Holliday.  By the time I pick again, all the top tier 1B and 3B were gone.  I figured this would happen and had targeted a couple of lower-end 1B and 3B players that I figured I could get later on (see rounds 10 and 14).   I wanted Hamilton here but he went earlier than I thought he would.  I would have loved for Adrian Gonzalez to slip but he did not.
3. Tim Lincecum.  I was either-or for Felix Hernandez or Lincecum here.  In the end I went for Lincecum because of the NL angle and because of how bad Seattle is.  Hernandez went immediately after Lincecum.
4. Richie Weeks.  Coming back at the end of the 4th, I needed to focus one at least one of the “skill” positions that can be tough to fill.  I wanted Uggla but missed him by a few picks.  Weeks is a good all around player; 29 homers with 11 SBs in 2010.  I’ll take that out of the 2nd base position.  Someone took a flier on Chase Utley not knowing just how bad his injury is … it pays to be prepared and up-to-date on injury news.  Weeks himself is an injury risk and was listed as a possible fantasy bust for 2011.  We’ll keep our fingers crossed.
5. Jason Heyward: I can’t remember if Posey was sitting there available at this point or not, but I like having an up-and-coming power hitter here.
6. Alex Rios: I filled my 3rd OF position with a bit of a sleeper in Rios.  He was #27 fantasy producer in 2010, hitting 21 homers and getting 34 sbs.  My first 5 out-field players all can be described as guys who can hit for power and get SBs.
7. Cole Hamels: I missed out on Cliff Lee but am a bit wary of him this year anyway.  He wasn’t THAT great in the regular season last year.  Meanwhile Hamels had a sneaky solid season with 211 ks in 208 innings.  He took a lot of losses though; lets hope that his move to the #4 starter puts him in line to get many more wins.
8. Mat Latos.  #32 ranked 2010 fantasy performer in the end of the 8th round.  I’ll take that.  Lots of Ks, great ERA and whip and pitching in the massive Petco.  Love this pick.
9. Neftali Feliz: I announced prior to this pick that I didn’t care if he was starting or closing, that I wanted him.  He apparently will be the closer, which i’m kinda bummed about since I think he’d be a great starter … but at the same time he’s probably the 3rd or 4th best closer out there.  I wanted Marmol and his ridiculous K rates but he went very early.  I also wanted Heath Bell right around here but missed him by one pick, with Acheson getting him just before I was to pick him.
10. Paul Konerko.  In the 10th round I sitll didn’t have a first baseman or a third baseman, two positions that are very power-hitter friendly.  As mentioned above, once I missed out on the top guys in the 1st-2nd rounds, I made a calculated gamble targeting two guys I figured would be either overlooked or be later round guys.  Konerko was the first: he was the #12 fantasy hitter last year, blasting 39 homers with 111 rbis.  It was a contract year, which is a bit scary, but he also inherits Adam Dunn as protection for 2011.  I’m hoping he continues to hit at this level despite him being 35 this year.  With him and Dunn switching off between 1B and DH perhaps the rest will do him good.
11. Jonathan Sanchez.  Oddly Yahoo has him ranked 173rd, despite being the 70th best producer last year.  I don’t get it; 13-9, 205 ks in 193 innings, good era and whip.  This may have been a reach by ranking points but I like him.
12. Matt Weiters. At this point there was a slight run on Catchers and I felt I needed to make a move.  I was looking at either Weiters or Geovany Soto.  Honestly before the draft I would have loved to have taken a shot at Carlos Santana but he went very early.  I debated between Soto and Weiters and went with the promising rookie.  Vito, drafting right behond me, was thinking the same thing and immediately snapped up Soto.
13. JJ Putz.  At this point in the draft, I nearly had all my positional players and generally go SP-RP all the way out.  I wanted to get my hands on at least one of the upper-end closers available and went with Putz.  Putz took a setup job in Chicago last year and pitched well enough to earn another closer job.  Arizona isn’t going to get him a ton of closer opportunities but after their debacle last year trying Qualls, Rauch and the kitchen sink in the role, Putz may do well.  Remember, Matt Capps got a ton of saves for a last place team last year too.
14. Pedro Alvarez.  My last positional player.  Most of the good 3rd basement went in the first two rounds.  I didn’t want to mess with guys like Bautista (flash in the pan?), Michael Young (he’s a utility player in a bad professional situation) or Aramis Ramirez (two bad years in a row).  I was targeting Alvarez or Mark Reynolds.  Reynolds hit less than .200 last year after a monster 2009 and is moving to a fantastic hitters park for him, so that was tempting.  But he’s also moving to the toughest division with a lot of upper-end pitching and he may push 250 Ks this year.  Meanwhile, Alvarez is a cool rookie with a lot of upside and he could be fun to follow.
15. Francisco Cordero: my 3rd closer; from here out my goal is to get the best closers available til I get to 5, then get whatever starting pitchers look enticing.  Cordero got 40 saves last year; works for me.
16. Leo Nunez; 20 picks later I get Nunez, who I have ranked right next to Cordero.  More Ks, better whip but fewer saves for Florida.
17. Brandon Lyon: Not a ton of saves last year but he wasn’t the closer til August.  then in 6 weeks he got 15 saves.  I’m hoping this is a steal of a pick and he racks up 35-40 saves this year.
18. Madison Bumgarner; Amazing, i’ve got Bumgarner ranked the exact same as Sanchez, who I got 7 rounds earlier.  I like Bumgarner and think he can be as effective as he was in the playoffs.  Honestly I wanted Hellickson around here but Droopy got him.  Bumgarner fits my profile better; NL starter with good numbers.  Not the best K/9 guy but he’s also a youngster and can get better.
19. Carlos Zambrano; This pick was partly a joke; there is a massive Cubs fan in our league (Erwin) who absolutely would have picked this guy.  But this was also strategic; Zambrano got an incredibly quick hook out of the rotation last year, missed a month but still finished the season 11-6 with 8.1K/9.  He was very effective down the stretch.  I’m hoping he picks right back up where he was before.
20. David Aardsma: Strategy pick; I know he’s going to start the season on the DL, so I will move him to my DL slot and pick up another guy.  As it turned out I did not pick up a utility player, so I’ll get the best hitter available before the season starts.
21. Anibel Sanchez: in the last round, i looked at my starting pitcher depth charts for the NL and selected what I thought was the best targeted starter available.  I was considering the likes of Fausto Carmona, Travis Wood, Dallas Braden or Jorge De La Rosa.  In the end Sanchez had a solid season last year for Florida and could do well.

Here’s the team by position:

• C: Matt Weiters
• 1B: Paul Konerko
• 2B: Rickie Weeks
• 3B: Pedro Alvarez
• SS: Hanley Ramirez
• OF: Matt Holliday, Jason Heyward, Alex Rios
• SP: Lincecum, Hamels, Latos, Sanchez, Bumgarner, Zambrano, Sanchez
• Closers: Felix, Putz, Cordero, Nunez, Lyon and Aardsma

Based on last year’s averages/week, my hitters are probably going to be

• a bit below average for Runs scored (30.8 versus 27.6)
• a bit above averages for Homers (7.92 versus 7.0)
• right around average for RBIs (29.1 versus 28.1)
• right around average for SBs (4.8 versus 4.2)
• above average for BA (.202 versus .273)
• above average for OPS (.838 vs .790)

Based on last year’s averages/week, my pitchers are probably going to be

• Above average for Wins (5.00 vs 3.65)
• Below average for Losses (4 vs 2.9)
• Above average for Saves (4.56 vs 3.88)
• Well Above average for Ks (69.4 vs 48.2)
• Above average for ERA (3.20 vs 3.553)
• Right around average for WHIP (1.24 vs 1.25)

I see 6 categories where i’m above average, 3 where i’m about average, two a bit below average and one where i’m well below average.  That could average out to a lot of 7-5 or 8-4 weeks.  Far enough.

Draft Analysis Conclusions: it is fair to say i’m weaker on the hitting side.  That tends to happen when drafting very early and missing out on the 1B and 3B rush.  I much more like drafting 4-5-6th spots so you can get top-tier guys in both positions.  I will have to be diligent on the waiver wire looking for hitters.  There are a couple of non-drafted guys that I like who may fit in at 1B if Konerko falters badly.

I’m also depending a lot on 2-3 non-sexy names (Weeks, Rios, Konerko) and several high profile rookies (Weiters, Heyward, Alvarez, Bumgarner).  This could really backfire if these guys don’t produce.  I’m most worried about Alvarez, who put up decent numbers in half a season last year but it may be a stretch to assume he’s already a 30-homer guy. I’m also worried about Weeks’ health and ability to stay on the field.  He may end up sitting in my DL spot for a while. I may focus on finding a speedster/leadoff/high SB/high Runs guy for my utility player.

I really like my slew of starters.  All of them have good K/9, era and whip values.  Lots of losses though; i’m hoping for a bounceback season for Lincecum and better w/l records from the likes of Hamels and Sanchez.

I’ve got a lot of closer depth, including the Aardsma pickup.  There’s a few other possible closers to be had as well; Lidge is down with an injury, Washington’s situation is certainly fluid, Tampa’s closer really hasn’t been identified, Atlanta may flip flop Venters and Kimbrell, and nobody at all knows who is going to close in Toronto.  So there’s more waiver wire work to be done.

A "neck spasm" is sending Rodriguez to the DL. Photo: prosportsblogging.com

A few days ago I was kvetching about the Henry Rodriguez situation in this space.  One sentence summary; he was “stuck” on the 25-man b/e he had no options yet was being held out of games to work on his mechanics.

Now, it appears the Nats decision makers has been given a lucky parachute out of this debacle, with rumors now swirling that Rodriguez will start the season on the DL.  Kilgore reports that he was experiencing soreness in his shoulder while Ladson said he saw a doctor for some neck stiffness.  Yesterday morning Comak reported he experienced a “neck spasm.”  I’ll bet $100 someone took him aside and basically told him to claim some sort of soft-tissue, difficult to diagnose injury in order to enable a disabled trip visit.

Either way, stashing Rodriguez on the DL is the best way to resolve this situation.  It may be slightly unethical in terms of player movement, but it certainly happens all the time.

Rodriguez’s DL trip means the bullpen and player retention issues that were plaguing the Nats resolve themselves for the most part.  Here’s how the bullpen almost certainly shakes out now:

• closer: Storen (despite his troubles, he’ll be given every opportunity to keep the spot)
• setup: Clippard, Coffey and Burnett.  Coffey may be on thin ice though.
• loogy: Slaten.  The Lee Hyde waiver pickup (and to a lesser extent Villone) provides Slaten insurance.
• long-men: Broderick and Gaudin: Rule5 draftee makes the team and could be a steal.  Gaudin earns his way back onto a major league roster.

The Gaudin retention means we need another 40-man spot; my guess is that Chien-Ming Wang goes on the 60-day dl.

Balester loses out despite pitching very well; clearly an options move.  When most of your bullpen options have little to no roster flexibility, you put yourself into a situation where you send down better guys in lieu of keeping lesser guys.  I’m sure Balester understands this and hopefully he gets another shot to come up soon.  If Coffey continues to struggle we should see a Brian Bruney-esque release and a quick callup for Balester.

Perez's down and out of NY; can he come back with the Nats? Photo: metzilla.com/baseballlatinamerica.com

Word came down on March 21st that the New York Mets had finally given up on Oliver Perez turning his career around and flat out released him.  He had a great 2007 season, going 15-10 in a full season starting for a nifty 121 era+.  Despite coming back down to earth in 2008, the Mets signed him to a 3yr/$36M contract for 2009-11.  He got hurt in 2009, was grossly ineffective in 2010, and now the Mets have decided to eat his entire $12m salary just to be rid of him in 2011.  He was reportedly only throwing in the mid 80s and the Mets were looking at him as a Loogy, not a starter or even a long reliever.

Two days later, Nats fans hear that he’s signed a minor league deal with Washington.  Beat reporters Goessling and Zuckerman nicely summed up similar thoughts to me with respect to this move and what it may mean for the AAA rotation.  But here’s some questions and answers about the move.

Q: Why didn’t the Mets try to trade him? The answer is probably along the lines of, who would want to assume $12M of salary?  Perhaps if the deal was Perez plus $11M for a prospect.  But Perez has looked so bad, his velocity so far below where it used to be, that the Mets probably figured no team would trade anything of value for him.

Q: Why didn’t the Mets just assign him to AAA to keep him? Perez has enough MLB service that he could refuse the assignment and become a free agent, essentially putting him in the exact same spot he is now by virtue of his unconditional release.

Q: Why would the Nats possibly want him? This is a very low risk, low cost move.  Even if he makes the majors we’re not paying anything more than the MLB minimum salary for him (somewhere in the $450k range).  He has already agreed to go to AAA, where he could NOT go for New York.  He can go to AAA, work on his mechanics in a low-stress, low-visibility environment and try to regain what once made him a great prospect.

Q: Is the displacement of other AAA pitchers worth the risk?  Assuming that Perez is treated like a starter, we’re probably now looking at this for the AAA rotation:

• Locks: Maya and Detwiler.  These guys are options 1A and 1B for rising to the majors, and if it were not for option statuses or contracts of the 5 guys who ARE starting in the bigs at least Detwiler may have been up there.
• 40-man guys being given shots: Mock.  For unknown reasons Mock continues to be viewed as part of the future for this team.  But if he’s still being considered a starter, he will be in the AAA rotation.  This list also possibly includes Stammen if the team values him more as a starter than a long-reliever.  We’ll see.  They seem to have him converted to a reliever at this point.
• Rising AA guys/prospects: Arneson, Tatusko, Milone: Arneson was in AAA last year but is not on the 40-man and has lived through two rule5 drafts.  He didn’t pitch badly in 2010 but not flashy enough to warrant a look at the MLB level.  Tatusko put up great AA numbers and deserves a shot in AAA.  Milone (and to a lesser extent perhaps even Meyers or Roark) also pitched well enough in AA to be thinking about a move to AAA.
• Non 40-man Vets hanging on: Chico, Martin, Martis, Atilano.   And now add Perez to this list.

So what happens?  I think your AAA rotation will be Maya, Detwiler, Mock, Perez and Tatusko.  Arneson gets bumped to long relief, as does Stammen, Chico, and Martis.  Martin and Atilano may be out of a job.  Milone, Meyers and Roark start in AA with a mindset of rising quickly to replace a promoted starter, or to replace Perez if we give up on him.

Is signing Perez worth delaying the AAA promotion of Milone?  Probably not.  But I agree with putting Perez into the rotation at the expense of any one of Chico, Martin, Martis or Atilano.  I think these latter four guys basically need to be released to make room for the next wave of guys.  If all four passed through waivers and came back to Washington, then there seems to be little chance they will be making it as professionals much longer.

Conclusions: I don’t HATE this move for the Nats.  It is low cost and low risk.  Lets just hope it does not retard the growth of our slew of good-looking AA pitchers.

Rodriguez's tenure as a Nat has been so rough so far, I can't even find a picture wearing our uniform. Photo: Ezra Shaw/Getty Images via bleacherreport.com

When the Nationals traded Josh Willingham for power arm Henry Rodriguez and minor league outfielder Corey Brown in December, the team and its fans thought we were getting a good outfielder prospect plus a valuable power arm, back of the bullpen type in exchange for a defensively challenged left fielder who couldn’t stay healthy (that is certainly the glass-is-half-empty analysis of Willingham’s contributions to this team, but so be it).

Brown was always set to repeat AAA, having struggled there last year after dominating lower levels of the minors.  He still may feature in our outfield at some point if our slew of LF/CF options fail us and he plays well to start the season.  His ankle injury certainly is not helping him prepare for 2011, but he’s not the real prize of the Willingham trade.

Rodriguez, after showing up for spring training 2 weeks late and not getting into a game for another week, is now “being shelved” to work on his mechanics.  A week before opening day.  Here’s his stats for the spring thus far: 2 1/3 innings, 7.71 era, 3 hits, 3 walks and only about half the pitches he’s thrown being in the strike zone.  The coaching staff report that his mechanics are out of whack, that he cannot repeat his delivery and he’s been doing nothing but bullpen work for the past 5 days.

Great.

Rodriguez has no minor league options.  The Athletics knew this and the Nationals knew this upon trading their starting left fielder, #5 hitter and top OPS producer from 2010.  Now this roster inflexibility is set to cause a serious issue for this team.  We can’t just “invent” an injury for Rodriguez to store him on the DL; last time I checked my orthopaedic surgeon didn’t treat “mechanical flaw” as an injury.  So, instead of leaving someone deserving on the opening day roster (say, Collin Balester or even Drew Storen, not that he’s been 100% deserving based on his spring performance but remember he did appear in 50+ games last year rather effectively, especially for a rookie), we’re going to probably lug him around for a while and look for incredibly low-priority outings for him to “remember” how to pitch again.

I know all of Willingham’s faults.  He’s injury prone, he was arbitration eligible and his salary was escalating, he hasn’t ever played a full season without time off for injuries.  More importantly to Rizzo, he was a severe defensive liability, even in a position that traditionally can “hide” poor defenders.  And Rizzo from the onset has seemed dead set on fielding a team of track stars, no matter what the cost.

But none of those reasons factor in the most important point; Willingham can mash the ball.  In two seasons in Washington he had OPS+ figures of 129 and 127 (which would have ranked him about 20th in the NL had he qualified each year) and hit in the 5th hole protecting Adam Dunn admirably.  You don’t just give up that much offense unless you KNOW you’re getting something of equal value in return.

Right now, we’re not getting anything close to equal value for him.  And it may have larger ramifications for the team that breaks camp in a week or so.

Commenter Mark L, in response to my statement that (paraphrased) the 2011 Nationals cannot afford to keep rule 5 picks on this team, pointed out that the team really has little chance of competing in 2011 and thus it is really the perfect time to be keeping and testing rule5 guys.

In theory I agree with this premise w.r.t. keeping rule 5 guys.  We’re not going to win the pennant in 2011.

I think in reality though the team has gone mostly backwards since arriving here in 2005 and cannot afford to ever seem as if they’re not trying to make progress.  I blame a lot of that on Bowden’s obsession with former Reds and tools-y players who became such a nightmare to integrate as a team that Acta had to be scuttled as a manager in favor of the more old-school Riggleman. The team lost the entirety of good will and excitement that came with a new stadium and the Lerners as owners had to be shocked at how quickly they destroyed their season ticket base (most observers believe they’ve lost more than half their season ticket holders just from 2009!). So the team is just not in a position to play for the future any more; they have to appear to be improving the team even marginally for the next few years to put themselves in a better position financially.

If the team was really playing for 2013 (as, say, the KC Royals clearly are), they’d never have even brought in the likes of Ankiel, Coffey, Hairston, basically every mid-career veteran and go completely with a lineup of prospects and these rule5 guys.   Arguably they wouldn’t have spent the money on Werth either.  What would the 25-man roster really look like without any FA signings?  Lets take a look:

• Catchers: Pudge, Ramos (remember, they *had* to get Pudge b/c of the state of their catcher depth pre 2010).  If you like, you can replace Pudge with someone like Flores or even Maldonado, since Norris is not ready for the majors in 2011.

• Infield: Marrero, Espinosa, Desmond, Zimmerman backed up by Gonzalez and Lombardozzi.  This would have required a serious leap of faith on the readiness of Marrero for 2011, and we’d be rushing Lombardozzi to the majors.  Perhaps we would have replaced Lombardozzi with Bixler.

• Outfield: Bernadina, Morgan, Burgess, Morse and CBrown.  I know Burgess was traded, but perhaps the team keeps him and installs him in right field knowing they wouldn’t have Werth.  Perhaps Burgess and Morse compete for right field and we bring up newly acquired CBrown as the 5th outfielder.

• Starters: Maya, Detwiler, Livan, Lannan, Zimmermann.  I leave Livan in here if only because we signed him to such a sweetheart deal.  If we don’t count Livan, we’re looking at someone like Stammen, Mock, Detwiler or Chico in that 5th spot.  Or perhaps we use Broderick as the 5th starter instead of putting him in long relief.

• Relievers: Storen, Clippard, Burnett, Slaten, Broderick, HRodriguez and Carr/Kimball (with ERodriguez on DL).  Our bullpen would have hard throwers at the back end and we’d immediately give AFL hero Kimball or Carr a shot.

Of this active roster, 17-18 would be on pre-arbitration salaries and the total payroll would probably be in the $28-30M range for the entire team. It’d be the “right” thing to do but the town would absolutely howl in protest.

I dunno. I go back and forth as a fan. Part of me says screw 2011, play the kids, see what they can do this year and regroup for 2012 when you can have a very good Strasburg-Zimmermann 1-2 punch to go along with general improvement across the rest of our younger guys.  The other part of me says that incremental growth in terms of wins and respectability for this team is just as important in terms of attracting free agents and enabling the team to make a quick leap in a couple years. If this team can win 75 games this year, Strasburg comes back and probably improves the team 5 wins just by himself, we acquire an incrementally better #3 pitcher and hope that Maya, Detwiler and our rising AAA guys become real major league options. If you’re a 81 win team a couple of key free agent signings coupled with the natural rise of our core up and coming players can improve the team 10-12 wins very quickly. Suddenly we’re a 90 win team and still have a manageable payroll to augment and take the next steps to rise above Atlanta and Philadelphia in the division.

That’s “the plan,” right?

There is always a risk of over-emphasizing early spring training statistics.  But as an analyst or even a fan of a team, you’re in a catch 22.  There are players out there clearly pitching to make the team and thus their statistics and results are important.  Meanwhile, you have to keep in mind that for every homer Mike Morse hits off a legitimate major league starter, he’s hitting another one off a guy who is a non-40 man minor league filler player who is pitching that game just to fill out the innings.  So, when looking at these results we try to put the performance into context.  If a pitcher is going against a split squad and is facing 3 regulars and 6 minor leaguers, his performance obviously has a caveat.

In the 3rd week of spring training though, starters are getting “stretched out” and the teams are starting to look more like what they will in the regular season.  So the good/bad/inconclusive starts to be more important.  The Nats also managed to lose 6 of these 7 games, a troubling sign for the beginning of our season.

Here’s links to Week 1 and Week 2‘s Good/Bad/Inconclusive posts.  And below are the links to running commentaries (when available), wrap-ups from beat reporters and box scores (if I can find them):

• 3/13: at Marlins (running blog/gamer/box score)
• 3/14: vs Tigers (running blog/gamer/box score)
• 3/15: at Mets (running blog/gamer/box score)
• 3/16: at Astros (running blog/gamer/box score)
• 3/17: at Braves (running blog/gamer/box score)
• 3/18: vs Cardinals (running blog/gamer/box score)
• 3/19: at Mets (ss) (running blog/gamer/box score)

The Good

• Doug Slaten: he had nice rebound appearance against the Tigers on 3/14.  If he mis-fires, we always have Ron Villone (kidding. Maybe.)
• Tom Gorzelanny: looked significantly improved on 3/15 over his first appearance.  Final line; 4 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 3 BB, 4 K, 65 pitches, 36 strikes.  He clearly tired in the last inning, issuing two of the three walks and the run.  No radar gun readings to be found but the observers say he looked like a completely different pitcher.  Good.
• Brian Broderick: two quick, easy outings later in the week gives him only 1 earned run in 10 2/3 innings this spring.  He’s looking like a steal of a rule5 pick and may just make this team as the long-man.  Or perhaps at the expense of Drew Storen (see further down).

The Bad

• Elvin Ramirez: this rule-5 acquisition has yet to appear in a game and now has a sore-shoulder that may necessitate his starting the season on the DL.  I know that Rule-5 draft picks are low-risk and low-cost, but on a team like the Nationals they don’t make a lot of sense.  We’re not deep enough so that we can “hide” a guy all year (as we did with Tony Blanco back in 2005), and there are more deserving pitchers on this team for the few spots that aren’t guaranteed.  Perhaps we can negotiate a trade with the Mets to keep him if the team really likes him.  More likely he starts the year on the DL and gets returned if we cannot negotiate a deal.
• Craig Stammen‘s 3/15 outing was probably enough to guarantee his trip to Syracuse.  He gave up 3 runs on 4 hits and a walk against a decent Mets lineup.  He’s looking like 4th best out of 4 for the last bullpen spot.
• Tyler Clippard: His 3/16 outing was seriously disturbing.  1ip, gave up 4  hits (3 for extra bases), 2 walks, 5 runs … a disaster.  He was quoted as saying that he “lost his concentration” but one would have to think that after perhaps the third or fourth baserunner he’d get it back in a hurry.  He wasn’t exactly facing the elite of the league either in the 9th inning against (possibly) the worst team in the majors.
• Drew Storen: after a bounce back performance earlier in the week, Storen gets absolutely hammered by a bunch of Cardinals scrubs you’ve never heard of on 3/18.  Not good.  I’m beginning to wonder if he even makes the team at this rate.

The Inconclusive/Worrisome/Concerning

• Henry Rodriguez: On March 13th our possible-closer-acquisition pitcher was FINALLY set to appear in a game.  He promptly lays an egg; 1/3 of an inning, 3 walks and a hit.  Clocked at 97 though, so there’s that.  Management has to be irritated with this situation; the guy has no minor league options and is basically guaranteed to be on the team, yet misses weeks of camp and shows up not in full throwing shape.  If this guy bombs out (as the centerpiece of the Josh Willingham deal), we’ll have given up an awful lot of offense for next to nothing.  In his next appearance on 3/17, he looked remarkably better; got his fastball up to 99, threw a couple wild pitches but got some Ks on a great 90mph change-up.  Most described him as “effectively wild.”  Which is the real Rodriguez?
• Colin Balester: Why has Balester only gotten 5 innings in 2 weeks?  His role on this team (presumably to me) is to be the long-man out of the bullpen, the Miguel Batista role from last year.  He’s being treated more like an 7th/8th inning guy.  Is this indicative of his lowered chances of making this team?  Perhaps the plan is to have option-less Gorzelanny in that role with Balester back in AAA (he has one option left).  He did pitch 2 scoreless on 3/19 to finish up the week but seems destined for AAA to start the year.
• Ross Detwiler took a step back from his spring performances on 3/16 with this line: 3 IP, 4 H, 3 R, 2 ER, 2 BB, 71p, 43 strikes.  He gave up 4 consecutive base-runners, struggled with a basic sacrifice attempt from the opposing pitcher, and reportedly wasn’t as crisp with his fastball velocity as in days past.  Perhaps just an off day.
• Yunesky Maya: He showed nearly the velocity we want out of him on 3/17 against a strong Braves lineup (peaking at 92, sitting between 88-91 mostly).  Not quite the 93 we were told he was hitting in the DWL but perhaps he was on a fast gun.  He fell victim to that which plagued him last year; the big inning.  He needs to find a way to mitigate the damage if he gets down in an inning.
• Jordan Zimmermann: 5 scoreless innings on 3/13 to run his spring training streak to 11.  Good velocity, good movement on his curve.  His 3/18 Outing was not as nice: 4 ip, 6 runs, 8 hits, 2 walks, 0 strikeouts, 2 wp, 69 pitches and 44 strikes.  He was reportedly very wild and very hittable.
• Jason Marquis: He continued his great spring, goes 5 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 2 BB, 4 K, 53 pitches, 38 strikes against the tigers on 3/14.  And then he got absolutely hammered on 3/19, giving up 9 hits and 3 walks in less than 4 innings (3.2 IP, 6 ER, 9 H, 3 BB, 1 K, 1 WP, 79 pitches, 45 strikes).  The first inning of 3/19 seemed to be part bad defense, part unlucky grounder locations, but he did have trouble locating his pitches all game.

Lots of “inconclusive” this week, as guys who looked good before put in bad performances.  Lots of pitchers complain about a “dead arm” period late in spring training and perhaps that’s what we’re seeing overall.  Next week’s games will be revealing.

Brian Broderick on Media Day. Photo by Al Bello/Getty Images North America/zimbio.com

Commenter Mark L asked whether or not I was “ignoring” rule-5 draftee Brian Broderick‘s performance thus far when considering the bullpen competition in response to a post previewing the Nats 3/15/11 game against the Mets.

I don’t know if i’m “ignoring” Broderick’s performances thus far … I just have a reaaaaaaly hard time believing he’ll be on the 25-man roster based on the inflexibility of keeping a rule5 guy, given the roster inflexibilities we already have with several other players.  Here’s my reasoning:

• We have 3 guys who already essentially HAVE to stay on the 25-man roster because of a lack of options: Clippard, Burnett, and Henry Rodriguez.  Two of these guys are bullpen mainstays and would have been there anyway, but the acquisition of Rodriguez has complicated matters for the team.  As mentioned before, he showed up late for spring training and has not necessarily looked fantastic so far.  If we could possibly find a way to DL him if he’s not ready to go on April 2nd (“tired arm?”) , a lot of problems would be avoided.
• We have a 4th guy in Coffey who signed a major league deal and has enough service time that he could (and probably would) refuse a AAA assignment, so he either stays on the 25-man roster or we light his $1.35M on fire.
• We have to have a loogy; Slaten seems almost certain to be that guy.  I guess you could argue that we really don’t need a loogy, that Burnett could be that guy or even Gorzelanny if he gets bumped out of the rotation.  But Burnett’s value is not as a one-out guy and Gorzelanny is a starter.
• Storen is supposed to be “the closer.” He may be struggling this spring but there’s nothing about his 2010 performance that says he does NOT deserve to be in that position for this team. Admittedly he does have options and can be sent down but i’d be awfully mad if we sent a first round draft pick down so we could keep some untested minor leaguer on the active roster.

So, if we keep Broderick, he’s the 7th guy in the pen and has to stay there all season.

That’s your 7 spots essentially wrapped up. So now here’s the rest of the picture and why this could become rather complicated for the team:

• If Gorzelanny struggles in the starter’s role, he has no options and would have to go to the bullpen. Who makes way?  We can’t really cut Gorzelanny out right without admitting that the move backfired greatly for the team, having given up 3 decent prospects just a few months ago.
• If we want to use Gaudin, who has looked great so far in spring training, he’d have to be first added to 40-man (and then we’d have to drop someone else or move them to 60-day dl). And then he’s more or less stuck on the roster too; he’s got 5+ years of service time, no options and can reject an assignment back to AAA. Based on the fact that he signed a minor league deal with us, one could assume that he is ok with starting the season in AAA, but other teams have scouts too and might be taking notice of his achievements so far.  However again, if Gaudin is the 7th guy who makes way for him?
• Balester: he certainly performed well last year; 28ks in 21 ip in the same role we’re talking about here.  Before the rule5 draft I had him locked into that long-man role. Has he done anything this spring to cost him this spot?  No but he has one more minor league option and may lose out nonetheless.
• Stammen; he clearly can give you innings since he’s always been a starter, and his advanced stats last year were not THAT bad. But he too has options and seems to be pitching his way to AAA this spring.

Honestly, I think what the Nats need to do is make a deal with StL, trade them someone for Broderick and then stash him at AAA til you need him. Return him to the starters role where he was 11-2 last year in AA and maybe we’ve found a real cheap 5th starter for the future.

Per new Washington Times beat reporter Amanda Comak’s post this morning, here’s today’s pitching lineup:

SP – Tom Gorzelanny – 1 start, 2.1 innings, 5 H, 3 R (2 ER), 3 BB, 1 K, 7.71 ERA
RHP Craig Stammen – 6 IP, 5 H, 1 R (1ER), 2 BB, 5 K, 1.50 ERA
RHP Henry Rodriguez – 0.1 IP, 1 H, 1 R (1ER), 3 BB, 27.00 ERA (keep in mind he’s only made one appearance)
RHP Brian Broderick – 7.2 IP, 4 H, 1 R (1ER), 0 BB, 1 K, 1.17 ERA
RHP Collin Balester – 5 IP, 5 H, 3 R (2ER), 2 BB, 4 K, 3.60 ERA
RHP Cole Kimball – 6 IP, 4 H, 1 R (1ER), 1 HB, 1 BB, 5 K, 1.50 ERA

Nearly every guy on this list has some serious question marks in terms of performance thus far in the Spring.  Gorzelanny almost certainly has a rotation spot guaranteed but has not shown us nearly the capabilities he was known for pre-trade.  Stammen‘s role with this team and his future with the organization is cloudy; clearly he’s not being considered as a starter any more but there’s way too many guys for a bullpen role.  Rodriguez showed up late, has no options and is pretty much guaranteed a bullpen spot … so he better be worth it.  Broderick is a rule5 guy on a team that absolutely cannot afford to keep a rule5 guy (making you wonder why bother to pick them up?), but he’s looked good this spring and you have to wonder if he’s going to be acquired or kept at this point. Balester (like Stammen) seems to be falling behind in the race for the long-man out of the bullpen competition, which is odd considering his very good 2010 numbers.

Only Kimball seems destined to know his fate already; he’s bound for the AAA closer role, having performed admirably at both high-A and AA last year.  It is only a matter of time before he gets called up and slots into the back of our bullpen.

Can’t wait to hit refresh on that #Nats twitter tag!

A running post, my answering the questions that Nats MLB beat writer Bill Ladson answers on a (mostly) weekly basis.  here’s Ladson’s 3/14/11 mailbox post with his answers.

Q: Is it too early to say Drew Storen lost his chance of being the team’s closer?
A: I think it was too early to say this even last year, when Storen was good but not fantastic in the closer role.  We wouldn’t have acquired a 103mph throwing Henry Rodriguez otherwise.  I think Storen *eventually* gets the role but until then its a mix between him, Tyler Clippard and Rodriguez depending on the night.  Riggleman likes to give relievers their assignments for the night ahead of time and seems certain to go closer-by-committee.

Q: Why do the Nationals keep taking chances on injured pitchers like Chien-Ming Wang and Cla Meredith, when a guy like Kevin Millwood is available?
A: Because Millwood was awful last year?  4-16, 5.10 era and an 83 ERA+.  Though he was effective in 2009, his 07 and 08 numbers were in line with his 2010 numbers.  2010 was the last year of a 5yr/$60M contract.  If the Yankees, who *desperately* need starters, aren’t biting on Millwood (or even Jeremy Bonderman) at this point then nobody will.  Besides, I’d much rather pay a 22-yr old prospect the major league minimum to put up a 5.00 era and a mid-80s ERA+rather than a veteran who would command 2-3 times more at a minimum.

Wang is a special case; I think the Nats spent the $1M guaranteed this year as a follow-on to their $2M investment last year.  $3M is a good gamble on a pitcher who won 19 games two years in a row in the AL East.  Meredith (i’m pretty sure) was NOT injured coming into the season, and his TJ diagnosis was a surprise.  He’s already released and should have only cost the team a few thousand in spring training stipends and meal monies.

By and large, it seems that you can gamble with one injury reclamation project per spring.  And they are good gambles; the league is filled with pitchers who have returned from major injuries on non-guaranteed contracts to contribute.

Q: With the Nationals signing first baseman Adam LaRoche to a two-year deal, have they lost faith in Chris Marrero, and should they consider trading him at this point?
A: It is a fair point.  I think the Nats got stuck between two situations; Marrero not being ready for a full time major league gig for 2011 and a quality first baseman not wanting to come here on a one-year deal.  So they bought 2 years of LaRoche and probably cost Marrero a year of development time.  They have not lost faith in him … but to rise to the majors as a first baseman you have to have 30+ homer power.  This isn’t the 80s when a skinny Don Mattingly-like first baseman can arise and prosper.  You need production out of that position.  Until Marrero displays that, he’s stuck in the minors.

Q: If Danny Espinosa starts off the season cold, who will come in as the second baseman?
A: Nobody, really.  The team is basically all in on both Desmond and Espinosa to start 150+ games at their respective positions this year.  Alberto Gonzalez is not a lock to make this team versus Alex Cora, and neither can really hit a lick.  Jerry Hairston can backfill but is no more than a role player at this point in his career.  There is a significant gap from the majors to our 2nd base prospects Kobernus (who has not played like a 2nd rounder at all) and Lombardozzi (who played well in the AFL but is still needing minor league time).  We all better cross our fingers these guys don’t get hurt or struggle badly.

Q: Do you see Jerry Hairston Jr. taking significant at-bats away from Espinosa and Ian Desmond — potentially retarding their progress?
A: Not at all; once-a-week starter and late inning defensive replacement to spell their legs during the grind.

Q: How can you be even remotely upbeat about Morgan? His base-running decisions last year were terrible and his foot speed is supposed to be his biggest offensive threat. I like the guy’s heart, but I doubt he’ll be anything but a disappointment this year.
A: I believe Morgan will break camp as the leadoff hitter/center fielder, but will probably only be given about 2-3 weeks to show he’s back on track at the plate before the team goes with Rick Ankiel or Roger Bernadina in center.  If this happens, Morgan’s time in the majors may be close to complete; he’s 30, has a history of behavioral issues from last year, and isn’t getting any faster or younger.

Q: Are you surprised that Laynce Nix is facing an uphill battle to make the Nationals’ 25-man roster?
A: Why would anyone be surprised that an outfielder on a non-guaranteed contract is having problems making a team with 5 outfielders on major league contracts?  Nix’s success was always insurance over the likes of Morse and Ankiel not working out.  If a team wants to trade for him, all the better.  He doesn’t exactly fit the Mike Rizzo defense-first profile of outfielders as it is.

Marquis has looked arguably the best of any starter this spring. Photo: AP/silive.com

After the 2nd week of games and the official halfway point of Spring Training, here’s some quick comments on how some various pitchers have looked in the second week of Spring Training Games.  I’ve been keeping running commentary all week as each game happens.  The link to my week one’s thoughts/observations is here, posted on 3/6.

Also, here’s perma- links to the NatsJournal blog‘s running game comments as well as box scores (when I could find them).

• 3/6: vs Braves, box score
• 3/7: vs Astros, box score
• 3/8: at the Mets, box score
• 3/9: at the Marlins, box score
• 3/10: split squad vs the Mets (box score), and at Astros (box score)
• 3/11: vs Astros (box score)
• 3/12: vs Yankees (box score)

The Good

• Jason Marquis: 4 ip, 2 hits and a walk against Atlanta on 3/9 to continue his scoreless inning streak further into spring training.  Lots of ground balls, meaning he has his sinker back.
• Adam Carr: 6 up and 6 down on 3/8.  This didn’t stop him from being cut from the major league squad, but a bright future awaits this fellow.
• Brian Broderick: continues to pitch well, but his Rule5 status complicates his ability to make this team (see my whole missive on Gorzelanny and his job-by-option-status post here).
• Cole Kimball: big time right handed power pitcher showing his worth by continuing to punch guys out with regularity.  Could be first in line to replace a bullpen member who goes down with injury or non-performance.
• Ross Detwiler: Struck out 5 in 3 innings against a strong Braves lineup on 3/6.  Stretched out to 4 innings on 3/11 and added a few more K’s (along with a couple runs) but reportedly looked decent.  I agree with a couple other bloggers on this point; we talk about how Detwiler is competing for the 5th spot, but is it really Lannan that is in trouble?  (see further down for Lannan comments).
• Todd Coffey: Struck out the side on 3/9, had 2 more K’s in a 1-2-3 inning on 3/7.  Looks like he may be a decent replacement for Batista/Peralta from last year’s bullpen.
• Chad Gaudin: looked good against a very weak Mets team 3/10, pitching 5 shutout innings scattering a few hits and walks  (final numbers: 5ip, 6K, allows 4 hits with a walk. 78 pitches 52 strikes, thanks to Craig Heist).  Despite this he has no chance at the MLB rotation.  I presume he’ll be in the AAA rotation to start the season and seems to be putting himself above other AAA starters such as Chico and Martis in the pecking order.

The Bad

• Atahualpa Severino: bombed on 3/8, he’s looking like he’s gonna be 2nd best in the Loogy race to Slaten.  He’s already been optioned to AAA and may be vulnerable to being removed from the 40-man roster.  That being said…
• Doug Slaten got rocked himself on 3/9.  He’ll be given some room since he was so successful last year, but we need one of these two guys to own that Loogy role.  We don’t want to waste Burnett on man-to-man matchups.  In other news, the Nats signed Ron Villone to a minor league deal this week, which i’m predicting is partly (as Kilgore says) because they like him and part Loogy insurance.
• Garrett Mock: didn’ t help his cause by giving up a bomb against the Astros.  He’s now given up 4 hits and 5 walks in 2ip.  He’s looking like AAA bullpen fodder and possibly not long for the 40-man.  I don’t care how good his “stuff” is; if he can’t compete against fringy roster guys in the middle innings of a spring training game, then he cannot be counted on in real games come April.  Update: cut from the major league squad and will get into the AAA rotation.
• John Lannan:  Did not look good in his 3/12 start; too many walks and too many hard hit balls.  For the spring he’s sporting nearly a 9.00 ERA.  With Detwiler looking so strong, is Lannan in peril of starting the season in the minors?

The Iffy or Possibly Concerning.

• Jordan Zimmerman‘s 3/8 start “looked” good but those on hand used words like “shaky” and “hit hard.”  His fastball was 92-94 though.  For Zimmermann, the velocity is the key.  We know he has good stuff; we just need to know his fastball is recovered from TJ surgery.
• Yunesky Maya‘s 3/7 start was shaky at best.  5  hits and a walk in 2 2/3s innings versus a weaker Astro’s lineup.  He threw again on 3/12, gave up an unearned run and seemed to struggle with his fastball locations (the unearned run was on a 3-base error that Cano smoked but Bernadina dropped).  He pitched 4 complete, gave up 2 hits, walked 3 and struck out 3 (some with his loopy 12-6 curve ball).
• Drew Storen got lit up again on 3/7 but we had word that the coaches told him to spot his fastball.  Well, that may explain why.  Hey McCatty; tell us when he’s really trying out there so we know what is going on.  He recovered for a decent outing on 3/10, punctuated with 3 straight Ks against AAA competition.
• Tom Gorzelanny: my post questioning his acquisition garnered quite a spirited response.  The comments i’m about to make probably will too.  His first outing in the spring did not exactly vindicate his nearly-guaranteed active roster spot.  His line: 2.1 IP, 3 R, 2 ER, 5 H, 3 BB, 1 K against a weakened Astros split squad.   He only managed 23 strikes in 47 pitches.  Nobody seems to have mph readings but he was clocked only in the upper 80s earlier this week.  For him to stick and be successful we need to see a return to 92-93.
• Livan Hernandez: his 3/11 start did not garner confidence, apparently getting hit all around the park.  Bad defense behind him (and some generous scoring) made his line (3ip, 7hits, 1bb, 1k, 3ER) look worse than it was.  We know that Livan will put up a stinker every once in a while; just can’t make it a habit.