A running post, my answering the questions that Nats MLB beat writer Bill Ladson answers on a (mostly) weekly basis. here’s Ladson’s 3/14/11 mailbox post with his answers.
Q: Is it too early to say Drew Storen lost his chance of being the team’s closer?
A: I think it was too early to say this even last year, when Storen was good but not fantastic in the closer role. We wouldn’t have acquired a 103mph throwing Henry Rodriguez otherwise. I think Storen *eventually* gets the role but until then its a mix between him, Tyler Clippard and Rodriguez depending on the night. Riggleman likes to give relievers their assignments for the night ahead of time and seems certain to go closer-by-committee.
Q: Why do the Nationals keep taking chances on injured pitchers like Chien-Ming Wang and Cla Meredith, when a guy like Kevin Millwood is available?
A: Because Millwood was awful last year? 4-16, 5.10 era and an 83 ERA+. Though he was effective in 2009, his 07 and 08 numbers were in line with his 2010 numbers. 2010 was the last year of a 5yr/$60M contract. If the Yankees, who *desperately* need starters, aren’t biting on Millwood (or even Jeremy Bonderman) at this point then nobody will. Besides, I’d much rather pay a 22-yr old prospect the major league minimum to put up a 5.00 era and a mid-80s ERA+rather than a veteran who would command 2-3 times more at a minimum.
Wang is a special case; I think the Nats spent the $1M guaranteed this year as a follow-on to their $2M investment last year. $3M is a good gamble on a pitcher who won 19 games two years in a row in the AL East. Meredith (i’m pretty sure) was NOT injured coming into the season, and his TJ diagnosis was a surprise. He’s already released and should have only cost the team a few thousand in spring training stipends and meal monies.
By and large, it seems that you can gamble with one injury reclamation project per spring. And they are good gambles; the league is filled with pitchers who have returned from major injuries on non-guaranteed contracts to contribute.
Q: With the Nationals signing first baseman Adam LaRoche to a two-year deal, have they lost faith in Chris Marrero, and should they consider trading him at this point?
A: It is a fair point. I think the Nats got stuck between two situations; Marrero not being ready for a full time major league gig for 2011 and a quality first baseman not wanting to come here on a one-year deal. So they bought 2 years of LaRoche and probably cost Marrero a year of development time. They have not lost faith in him … but to rise to the majors as a first baseman you have to have 30+ homer power. This isn’t the 80s when a skinny Don Mattingly-like first baseman can arise and prosper. You need production out of that position. Until Marrero displays that, he’s stuck in the minors.
Q: If Danny Espinosa starts off the season cold, who will come in as the second baseman?
A: Nobody, really. The team is basically all in on both Desmond and Espinosa to start 150+ games at their respective positions this year. Alberto Gonzalez is not a lock to make this team versus Alex Cora, and neither can really hit a lick. Jerry Hairston can backfill but is no more than a role player at this point in his career. There is a significant gap from the majors to our 2nd base prospects Kobernus (who has not played like a 2nd rounder at all) and Lombardozzi (who played well in the AFL but is still needing minor league time). We all better cross our fingers these guys don’t get hurt or struggle badly.
Q: Do you see Jerry Hairston Jr. taking significant at-bats away from Espinosa and Ian Desmond — potentially retarding their progress?
A: Not at all; once-a-week starter and late inning defensive replacement to spell their legs during the grind.
Q: How can you be even remotely upbeat about Morgan? His base-running decisions last year were terrible and his foot speed is supposed to be his biggest offensive threat. I like the guy’s heart, but I doubt he’ll be anything but a disappointment this year.
A: I believe Morgan will break camp as the leadoff hitter/center fielder, but will probably only be given about 2-3 weeks to show he’s back on track at the plate before the team goes with Rick Ankiel or Roger Bernadina in center. If this happens, Morgan’s time in the majors may be close to complete; he’s 30, has a history of behavioral issues from last year, and isn’t getting any faster or younger.
Q: Are you surprised that Laynce Nix is facing an uphill battle to make the Nationals’ 25-man roster?
A: Why would anyone be surprised that an outfielder on a non-guaranteed contract is having problems making a team with 5 outfielders on major league contracts? Nix’s success was always insurance over the likes of Morse and Ankiel not working out. If a team wants to trade for him, all the better. He doesn’t exactly fit the Mike Rizzo defense-first profile of outfielders as it is.
A pretty good idea … Ladson is really terrible when it comes to “predictions”. His depth chart often speaks volumes about his inability to see what is really going on … albeit some of his “sources” are good, almost as good as Boz’s … he still seems more than a bit whacky at times. Ladson needs a “younger player” to replace him in the line up.
peric
14 Mar 11 at 6:59 pm
I still think you might just see Cole Kimball closing for this team out the door this fall … with guys like Burnett, Coffey, Slaten to fall back on, Rizzo/Riggleman can risk it.
Not sure what happens with Storen and honestly I suspect, in the back of their minds, they want this so that Storen will consider trying what he seems most capable of doing at a very high level: starting. He would spec out as at least a #2 and given his makeup he would make an excellent “stopper”.
peric
14 Mar 11 at 7:02 pm
And as far as Hairston … I think they might have mis-fired not bringing Bixler up last year to see him … that might have precluded signing Hairston. Bixler and Cora might make a pretty good back-up utility player combo to go with AGonz.
peric
14 Mar 11 at 7:04 pm
I really like Kimball and how quickly he’s come in the past year. Coffey may be a nice find too. I like Burnett and still think we got a steal in him as compared to what we gave up (Hanrahan … i have a “what do you think about the Milledge deal now” post written but not yet published touching on this deal in hindsight).
You’re preaching to the choir about Storen (and to a certain extent Clippard too) attempting to be starters instead of getting pigeon holed into reliever roles. I wrote a whole post about it earlier, linked here, in response to an article Tom Verducci wrote about Neftali Perez’s conversion. Two years running the Rangers have converted high-end relievers to starters; CJ Wilson turned out great for them and i’ll bet Perez does the same. God help us if the reds turn Chapman back into a starter too. Good starters are SO much more valuable than 1-inning relievers.
Todd Boss
15 Mar 11 at 9:05 am
I gotta admit, I didn’t even know Bixler was with this team until I looked up the Syracuse stats. We bought him sometime between 8/6 and 8/17 from Pittsburgh for cash. Nice little deal. I can’t kill the team for not adding him to the 40-man though; we were at a one-in, one-out point in August and were dropping guys to add the likes of Mench and Bisenus. For all the bitching and moaning we’ve heard about the team losing prospects off the 40-man (Jaime and Aaron Thompson being the biggest complaints this off season) I’d have been really troubled if we’d lost another prospect to keep Bixler on the 40-man.
For me, Hairston is a one-for-one replacement for Adam Kennedy, and Cora would be a one-for-one replacement for Gonzalez, who has little offensive value and was complaining about playing time. I’d rather have a guy who knows his role and accepts it as a backup/utility infielder than one who thinks he should be playing more and is at risk of being a clubhouse issue.
Todd Boss
15 Mar 11 at 9:12 am