Nationals Arm Race

Jason Marquis was an unlucky loser last night, getting tagged with the loss despite going 7 1/3 and only giving up one earned run (a run that was inherited and allowed to score by Tyler Clippard, who had one of his worse outings of the year).  In this one outing Marquis managed to lower his era from 11.39->8.79, lower his WHIP from 2.25 to 1.919, and increase his ERA+ from 36 to 47 on the year (see Nats baseball-reference team stats).

So, how did he look?  Actually, his pitching line rather flattered his performance early on.  He walked the leadoff hitter and went 3-2 on the 2nd hitter and was sitting at 15 pitches without recording an out.  His sinker was high, he was missing his spots by several feet, and was getting bailed out by the very generous strike zone from the home plate umpire Bob Davidson.  Marquis even added in a balk call (an obvious balk, i’m not sure why either he or Riggleman bothered to argue it).   Then to add insult to injury Zimmerman threw away a relatively easy grounder to put Marquis into a 1st and 2nd, no outs 1st inning jam. Marquis weaseled his way out of the jam more through luck and a very weak Cubs lineup.  But no damage was done.

Through the next couple innings he still struggled with his control, getting helped out by very high strikes on balls that better hitters would have clubbed.  On one such pitch he was even seen on camera to audibly curse despite getting a called strike (because it was a sinking fastball left belt-high over the plate).  However, by the 4th inning he was back in the groove.  Suddenly he had his sinking movement back, he was starting balls over the plate and having them end on the hitter’s hands, he was throwing his changeup for strikes, and he looked pretty dominant.

In the 8th, Marquis was sitting on about 90 pitches and faced a pinch hitter for opposing starter Ryan Dempster (in a rather shocking decision by the Cubs new manager Mike Quade, taking out Dempster at that point.  Game is 0-0, he’s at 79 pitches through 7 complete innings and had given up 2 hits.  why not let him go further?  Can’t disagree with the results though; Dempster’s PH gets on, scores and earns the win for the team)  In any case, Marquis walked the pinch hitter and within a few minutes immediately showed why leadoff walks hurt.  Clippard allows the guy to steal first pitch, then a mistake to the Cubs star rookie Castro results in a run scoring double.

7 1/3 innings with 4 hits and 3 walks (though honestly a couple of those walks were really “situational” in nature as Marquis pitched around Fukodome to get a double play situation).

As Kilgore‘s WP article suggests though, you can’t win if you don’t score.  Dunn in particular cannot strikeout looking three straight times in a game like this.  Yes the strike zone is wide, and yes a couple of those calls were borderline.  But after your first couple innings, when the zone is established and you know you’re getting a ball off the outside corner and an above-the-belt strike call over the heart of the plate, professional hitters have to adjust.  Dempster did, and Dunn did not.

Verdict on Marquis: pretty promising in terms of him returning to the form that earned him the 2yr $15M contract.  At this point in the season, frankly I’m rooting for two things:

1. Starting pitcher progress building towards 2011.
2. Losses to improve their draft position next year.

It seems odd but it is the truth.  A workable Marquis fits into any decent team as a #3/#4 starter, and performances like last night’s will make him look that much better in a rotation headed by Strasburg and Zimmermann.  We’re now 53-73 on the season, on pace for a 68-94 win season and last night’s loss has officially moved us into the 6th draft pick next year.

“Never leave town when Strasburg pitches” is the general lesson learned this past weekend.  If you do, be ready to return to 100s of blog postings, rants, old-school comments from Ron Dibble, and other opinions.  Its official today, Strasburg heads to the DL with a strained flexor tendon.  The umpire of the game says he heard an audible pop and Strasburg really looked like he was in some serious discomfort. One MRI inconclusive, so now they’re going with a reactive-fluid injection to more clearly see the damage.

All I can say is, the two words “Tommy John” seem to be in play here.

If there is a silver lining, it may be one of the following observations:

– If the nats shut him down for the rest of the year (and honestly, they really should at this point), he’s still gotten in enough innings to show some progress for the year (55 in the minors, 68 in the majors).  Certainly he did not hit the team goal of 150 combined innings … but then again 150 would put him into “Verducci Effect” territory.

– This move easily allows us to bring up Jordan Zimmermann, who has been just killing minor league hitters during his extended rehab, without having to sit one of our established starters (though, I still maintain that Stammen was unfairly demoted from the rotation; look at his advanced stats on fangraphs and you’ll see he’s basically our 2nd best starter behind Strasburg).

We’re moving forward with a rotation of LHernandez, Olsen, Lannan, Marquis, and Zimmermann for now.  Detwiler seems done for the  year.  I can see Olsen possibly getting dumped (and saving a few $100k starts) to make room for Maya in a couple weeks.  Wang continues to be MIA.

Scott Olsen‘s 12th start of the season eventually ended in a 10-2 nats loss last night, though that scoreline wasn’t totally his fault.  Strange start for Olsen, who absolutely cruised through the first 5 innings (one hit and one HBP through five, lots of groundball outs, very few hard-hit balls).  He was sitting at around 60 pitches and looked like he might put up a solid 8 inning start.  Suddenly the top of the 6ths starts pinch-hit homer, then a triple, then a walk of Heyward (hardly someone you can blame pitching carefully to with a guy on third and none down).  And he gets the hook!?

Why?  Why give him the hook after two guys hit good balls in a row.  So that a guy we signed on a minor league contract earlier this year (Peralta) can come in, let both inherited runners score on back to back doubles, and ruin the game for Olsen?  That was unproductive.  Sometimes I think Riggleman over-manages and over thinks his situations.

Olsen now sits at 3-5 an ugly 5.14 era and 1.44 whip.  But his advanced stats look better.  FIP=3.51 and xFIP=4.07, which is actually 2nd best of any starter we’ve used more than once the rotation (behind Strasburg).  His BABIP is .320, meaning he’s slightly unlucky on balls in play.   He’s had three horribly games on the year that have destroyed his era/whip numbers.  But he also had a string of 4 games and 25+ innings with 2 earned runs allowed.

I think Olsen’s spot in the rotation is safe for now, but either he or Lannan probably gets the hook when we bring up Maya for a few spot starts.  But at least he’s earning a contract tender in arbitration proceedings in the off season.

The “10th day of Strasmas” was today, as wonderkid took the mound against the Arizona Diamondbacks to finish off a quick homestand.  Coincidentally, the Nats have now “overtaken” the Astros for the 8th draft pick, but it’ll be hard to maintain this pace.  He didn’t look bad but he didn’t look that good either.

Strasburg went 5 innings, gave up 5 hits, 7ks, 0 walks, 3 runs but only one earned and was lifted in-between innings sitting on 85 pitches.  The two unearned runs were due to the 3-base error Strasburg himself committed by letting a throw to first sail down the RF line, scoring a guy from 1st and putting that runner on 3rd with one out (scored on the next pitch by a routine flyball).

Most of the hits were weaker.  Reynolds had a seeing eye single through the middle, Montero had a jammed soft flyball into center, and Drew hit another relatively innocuous ball up the middle.  Chris Young turned on a fastball pretty well, hitting a sharp line drive into left but got stranded.

The best hit ball of the night was LaRoche, who has been incredibly hot lately, absolutely unloading on a 2-0 fastball that Strasburg left up and over the plate.  LaRoche’s ball was the kind of ball you swing through and don’t even feel the contact on the bat.  Definitely a mistake to a guy who made him pay.

Strasburg’s first pitch registered 101 on the TV gun (impressive considering that normally he eases into it).  He had good velocity most of the night, he had control of his curve, and he threw his change up well.  All in all, an unlucky error cost him 2 runs to blemish an otherwise pretty good line.  I think the Nats are babying him a little bit and should have let him pitch the 6th.  If he gets to 105 pitches, it isn’t the end of the world.  I’d rather see the guy stretched out to 105 than yank him at 85.  There was no pressing pinch hitter need in the bottom of the 5th either.

Editor’s Update: Apparently Strasburg was lifted mostly in part due to the 10 minute delay caused by Arizona law protesters who took to the field.  Strasburg cooled off too much as a result and Riggleman didn’t want to risk it.

As far as the game goes, Willingham hit a 2 run bomb to tie it up and get Strasburg off the hook for the loss.  Zimmerman absolutely killed a ball in the 6th to give the Nats the lead, and Clippard/Burnett/Storen closed it out for the win.

Bottom Line; not the greatest line for Strasburg and no W on the board, but he looked good and he only really had two hard hit balls off of him all night.  Looking good.

8/14 made five (5) starts now on the season for key off-season acquisition Jason Marquis.  That’s 5 starts, 5 times he’s given up as many earned runs as he had innings pitched, 5 times he has failed to pitch out of the fourth inning (!!) that’s 5 losses and 5 times the nats were completely out of it before they had a chance to get going.  2 years, $15M for a guy who wasn’t supposed to be an ace but was supposed to be a quality, eat-innings, pitch decently well as a #3 or #4 starters.  Certainly that’s what he’s been for years for various teams.

What has happened?  He was basically throwing meatball pitches up there against major league hitters.  No sink, no movement, just mid-to-upper 80s meatballs that were hit and hit hard.  Is it still physical?  He did have a minor surgical procedure a couple months ago.  Is it mental?  You need bravado to be successful in the major leagues and he might be short on it right now.

But, what should we do?  Do you sit him?  Put him in the bullpen?  DFA him?  Ask him to go to the minors (where he hasn’t been since 2003)? Replace him with someone else?

I know we have probably better options than Marquis right now.  Stammen pitched well in his last few starts and didn’t deserve to lose his rotation spot honestly.  Zimmermann is ready to come up; there’s only so much dominance of AAA pitchers that is needed.  Maya is a pro and only needs a few warmup starts.  Mock is on a rehab assignment.  Chico pitched well in a spot start against the Dodgers earlier this year.

However, we are committed to 2011 with the guy.  And Instead of turning $15M into a complete waste, i say let him work it out, let him take his lumps as he essentially repeats spring training in August against teams in the pennant race.  Its not as if the Nats are going anywhere.  The season is now about 75% complete, we’re in last place and we’re not getting any better.  All we’re playing for at this point is draft positioning (currently 8th!  we’re getting better, er i mean worse).

Of course, I’ll bet the Nats invent some nebulous “soft tissue” error soon on Marquis (my guess; elbow strain) that gives them an excuse to 15-day DL the guy and put someone better in the rotation.  It is the best solution honestly; he saves face and saves his ego and can write the whole season off to a tough injury.  We’ll see.

21 days on the nose since his last start Strasburg took the mound last night and, well, got hit.  Hard.  He gave up 6 hits and 6 earned runs (thought the last run was courtesy of Batista allowing his inherited runner to score).

4Ks and 2 walks but he was behind most of the hitters and went 3-2 more than a few times.

Those 6 hits were no flukes.  All of them were extra bases.

– A homer by Uggla (who hit a 1-2 fastball up and in and lined it into the stands.  Great swing, no mistake here.).
– A bullet of a double by Hanley Ramirez (he hit a first pitch fastball that was right down the heart of the plate the other way over the RF’s head).
– Another well hit ball by Uggla for another double (he sat on a 2-1 fastball and swung hard on it).
– Another bullet by Stanton (who sat on a 2-0 fastball and tattooed it into the leftfield corner).

– Hanley hitting a hanging 0-2 curveball for a double into left field (definitely a mistake pitch).
– finally, Gabby Sanchez hit a 1-1 ball on a line to left field.  Scored a double but should have been an error on Willingham, who gloved it but a good fielder easily makes that catch going backwards over their head.

So, what happened?  It all comes down to one primary reason: Strasburg had Zero feel for any of his pitches besides his 4-seam fastball, and even that was all over the place.  For the first time in his starts i saw a MPH reading of 101, but he couldn’t control it.  He threw six or seven curves before getting one called for a strike.  His 2-seamer kept missing the plate low.  He had so little feel for his circle-change that he only threw it once in the first 4 innings.

So he keeps running up the fastball.  Constantly behind in the count.  By the 5th inning it was clear that he was throwing it slower just to get it over (aiming it almost) and that’s why he got the yank.  This is a good hitting team.  Hanley Ramierez, Gabby Sanchez, Uggla, and Stanton did the damage.  He walked a .234 hitter twice and both times it led to Uggla getting a 2 out atbat that he shouldn’t have had.  But what we saw is that good hitters, if they know what is coming and can sit on the fastball, can hit the fastball no matter how fast it is going.

In the end, it is all rustiness.  He’ll probably be dominant again in his next start (Sunday 1:35pm game at Nats park against Arizona).

your cub reporter,
boss

As the team starts to get some clarity in their rotation (guys coming back from injury and replacing AAAA starters), I was thinking about our 2011 rotation.

2011 rotation competition (assuming everyone is healthy).  Listing all 40-man starters.

• Locks (in order): Strasburg, Zimmermann, Marquis
• Heavily Considered (in order): Maya, Wang, Detwiler, Lannan, Olsen
• FAs to be: LHernandez
• Minors/Left out: Stammen, Atilano, Martin, Chico, Mock, Martis, Thompson

I can’t imagine us actually going with the first 5 names on this list, simply because they’re all righties.  We have several decently accomplished lefties in the mix and you would have to think at least one of them will make the cut in 2011.  The team really likes Detwiler, but Lannan has been our most effective pitcher over the past few seasons.

Some other thoughts on the names on this list.

• Wang.  If he can ever regain his form when he was winning 19 games for the Yankees, then he absolutely has to be in the conversation.  But, in reality he’s no closer to returning to the majors now in August than he was when we signed him in February.  And that’s ridiculous.
• Marquis.  What the hell is wrong with this guy?  4 runs before recording an out??  $15M absolutely flushed down the drain so far.  I was certainly a proponent of this signing but you have to wonder at this point if he’s just mentally forgotten how to pitch and compete.  But, he’s signed for next year at a high figure so he has to be part of the conversation.
• Olsen.  I can see them non-tendering him again and then subsequently seeing him signing elsewhere.  I have a feeling he’s going to get really pissed if the Nats cut his starts to save money.
• Livan.  I can see him being a post-trade deadline waiver wire trade.  No way anyone is claiming him, even given his numbers.  He’s a tough case; he doesn’t overpower people but he gets results.  He’s like the next version of Jamie Moyer.   He’s absolutely been our Ace this year but will he even get offered a contract for next year?

Convenient, to say the least, that Detwiler has just been put on the 15-day DL with a hip strain.   This now makes three underperforming Nats pitchers who have suddenly taken ill just as they were set to be replaced/demoted (Atilano, Martin and now Detwiler).  In fairness, Martin has since had back surgery and moved to the 60-day DL and obviously had a serious injury.  But Detwiler?  Seems like coincident timing.

I guess I shouldn’t be complaining, since it makes a tough decision the Nats were possibly to face a bit easier.  Marquis comes off the DL and goes today for the first time since april.

Current Rotation: Livan, Marquis, Strasburg, Olsen and Lannan.

on the DL: Mock, Martin, Detwiler and Atilano

in the minors and coming soon: Zimmermann and Maya.

I’ll guess the next thing to happen will be Olsen and Lannan making way for the Zimmermann and Maya (or perhaps Strasburg reaching an innings limit and Lannan  staying in the rotation).  Olsen gets significant bonuses right now for each additional start (to the tune of $250k for his next couple starts, then $100k there after for the rest of the season).  Not that I think the Nats are cheap, but i’m sure they’ll find some justification for limiting his starts and their payroll outlay.

As it stands, they’re getting closer to the 2011 rotation they’d probably like to see out on the field (Strasburg, Zimmermann, Marquis, Maya and Lannan).  And we all think this would be a pretty good rotation.  Spring training 2011 can’t come soon enough!

Zuckerman has a good article about the conundrum the nats are about to face with respect to all the starting pitchers they have coming back or soon-to-be ready to pitch in the Majors.

Current rotation: Livan, Detwiler, Stammen, Olsen, Lannan.  In roughly that order of performance.

– Strasburg is coming back from the DL next tuesday and probably sends Stammen back to the minors for the rest of the year, possibly forever.  Stammen is just to inconsistent to depend on.  He’ll go 3 straight fantastic games then blow up.

– Marquis is soon to be off the rehab assignment (he’s now got 5 minor league starts and you only get 30 days of rehab before having to be recalled or optioned).  I don’t know who gives way for him; perhaps Olsen since Olsen has been optioned already this year and hasn’t exactly lit it up since his return from injury.

– Zimmermann has been removed from the 60-day and has been optioned to AAA; he probably gets 3-4 more starts down there and replaces Strasburg when the phenom either gets his next DL stint or reaches his innings limit.

– Maya (our new Cuban signing) just got assigned to the gulf coast league, but he wasn’t signed to a $6M contract and placed on the 40-man to pitch in the minors.  This team needs to know how he’ll pitch next year.

– Wang has yet to even start throwing by all accounts and is looking more and more like a waste of money.  Too bad.

– Livan could be a post-waiver wire trade candidate to a contender needing a rubber-armed 5th starter.  We’ve done it before (netting Chico and Mock from Arizona in 2006) but that would be cold hearted for a guy who has saved the Nats season in terms of starting pitching.  But, we could always sign him again in the off season and his removal would pave the way for a slot for one of the above.

– Other SPs on the 40-man: Atilano (dl), Martin (dl), Mock (dl), Chico (27 and seemingly stuck in AAA), Martis (23 but having a mediocre AAA season) and Thompson (young but absolutely sucking in AA) all seem to be non-factors now and going forward. In fact I’d be surprised to see half these guys in the organization next year as we promote a bunch of slightly-older AA pitchers upwards (including the two starters we got from Texas for Guzman).

You can never have enough starting pitching.

Prediction/hope for 2011 rotation: Strasburg, Zimmermann, Marquis, Maya and then whoever wins from Detwiler Olsen and Lannan in spring training next eyar).

boss

You have to like this move that Rizzo pulled off.

He turned a guy who was flat out released by Pittsburgh last year into the #2 prospect in Minnesota’s system (Wilson Ramos, a major-league ready catcher
from a defensive standpoint and probably Pudge’s understudy in a few weeks) plus a lefty reliever with staggering K/9 ratios the last two seasons (but not
so much this season, where he’s struggled a bit in high-A).
I love this move.  Capps did great for us undoubtedly and some will say that he is the reason our bullpen has stabilized this year versus last, but reality is:

• – a closer is an absolute luxury on a last place team
• – a closer can be great one year (Capps in 2010) but awful the next (Capps in 2009) and you have to sell high.
• – Saves are overrated and even mediocre bullpen guys can serve as the “closer” for a team that’s not in a pennant race.
• – The nats have a couple of very lively arms in the bullpen now that can immediately step up and open the door for the next reliever to come up (Severino?) to work towards the future.  As a last place team, that HAS to be the priority.

Now, here’s an interesting question.  Why did we get yet another upper-end catching prospect?  Right now the catching situation for the Nats looks like this:

• – Pudge; coming back to reality after a great start, signed through 2011
• – Nieves; classic good D no hit guy who is hitting .187/.223/.252 in 134 plate appearances this year and is just killing the team when he spells Pudge.  Great guy; but he’s probably getting his release inside the next couple weeks.
• – Norris: Nats #1 prospect in the minors right now; struggling after having hamate bone surgery (same surgery Zimmerman had a few years back) in high-A.  He tore up low-A and short-A though so he’ll get it back.  Question remains about him though; does he stay at Catcher?
• – Flores; another setback reporeted recently. at this point in his “recovery” he’s throwing from 90 feet and hitting off a tee.  Which is exactly what he was doing in March.  Despite everything that we expected from this kid, you almost have to write him off as a complete injury loss at this point.
• – Harper.  Catching prospect but he’ll be far faster the majors as a right fielder (which we have a need for anyway).  Boras wants him out of the catching position because it will mean more money and longer career (and thus more commissions).

thoughts?