In our continuing series of reviewing/reacting/criticizing Nats prospect lists as they’re released, today we got a big one. The MLBpipeline.com team (which includes senior prospect analysts Jim Callis, Jonathan Mayo, and Sam Dykstra) has released their updated top 30 rankings for our system.
Here’s the links to past analysis: Keith Law/The Athletic, Baseball America, ProspectsLive.com, Prospects1500, Prospects361. We’re still waiting for a couple major shops who generally release rankings: Fangraphs, ESPN, BleacherReport, and CBSsports.
Back to MLBPipeline’s list, which is perhaps the most respected source out there. Here’s the link to the story and the list itself.
Lets do some reactions.
- At the top, Ruiz is graduated, so they go Cavalli-House at 1-2 like everyone else.
- They’ve got our next two significant arms at 3-4 (that being Henry/Rutledge). Law had them 3-4 as well, just in the reverse order. Notably, no other shop has these two arms as high, most pushing them down in to the 6-9 range. Which tells you what I think about this source versus others.
- MLBpipeline is one of the first to rank Vaquero legitimately; they’ve got him 5th as a starting point in the system. The only other shop to even bother attempting to rank him immediately post signing was ProspectsLive (who had him 4th).
- Next three are our tertiary tier of RHP starters; in order Lara, Carrillo, Adon. No quibbling here; all three could serve as really useful arms in our system in one fashion or another. Having these three guys in the 6-8 range is completely reasonable.
- They’re high on Daylen Lile, having him at #10. But their scouting report is a little dour, projecting him as a bat first spray hitting 4th outfielder.
- Antuna: down at #12. Finally a realistic ranking of a career .238 hitter who projects as a corner OF with no power.
- Quintana continues to be all over the map: they have him #15; he’s been as high as #7 (Keith Law) and as low as #24 (Baseball America).
- Boissiere comes in at #17 … after missing BA’s entire top 30.
- Lucius Fox is #23 … one of the few times we’ve ever had a waiver claim be ranked in our prospects list.
- Several recently drafted players are in the 20s but entirely missing from BA’s list, guys like Saenz and White.
- Mason Denaburg gets #30 treatment, but Seth Romero is nowhere to be seen.
Notable missing players
- Holden Powell‘s injuries have dropped him off the radar; he needs a bounce back 2022.
- Daniel Marte: completely off the radar too.
- Tim Cate: completely unranked but is as high as #12 on Law’s list. Interesting how little he’s rated.
- Riley Adams: nowhere to be seen despite being #11 on BA’s list. I guess a backup catcher who we all think is going to play every 4th day is not a prospect.
- Mason Thompson; another guy who BA had just outside their top 10 … then suddenly he wasn’t there at all. Did he graduate rookie eligibility? I can’t tell.
Update post publishing: per commenter, Adams and Thompson have graduated … which makes you then ask, “well why the hell is he on BAs’ list?” And the answer there is … well, because i don’t know. It’d be super helpful if baseball-reference.com would have listed them as having graduated (since that’s my primary source for determining that). I’ll update my docs.
Adams and Thompson have both graduated.
James
21 Mar 22 at 2:03 pm
Yeah i figured. Of course baseball-reference.com doesn’t have them listed as having “exceeded rookie standards” so I wasn’t entirely sure.
Todd Boss
22 Mar 22 at 10:31 am
The #1 issue for the Nats is, other than starting pitching, who are they going to put at 3rd on Opening Day?
No good choices in camp.
Mark L
22 Mar 22 at 11:32 am
It’s interesting that they are the first place to (rightly) push Antuna down the list but are unaware that he’s being moved to OF. I’m sorry, but that’s been one of the biggest stories in the organization, so that calls the depth of reporting into question.
I’m sure the Nats still think of Cate as being in their top 30. After a difficult season, Law’s bullishness on him seems high, but it’s also pretty extreme for MLB to drop him from the list.
I agree that they also seem low on Quintana, but who knows since he barely played. His tools and size seem to indicate a higher ceiling than de la Rosa has. I’ve not been that impressed thus far by de la Rosa, who really struggled while “playing up” last season.
KW
23 Mar 22 at 8:49 am
We’ve all expressed dissatisfaction at how all of these lists have had trouble giving an adequate picture of the Nats’ system. Of course the bottom line is that it still isn’t a very good system. The only near-sure-thing is Ruiz, who more or less is counted as already graduated. There’s excitement about Cavalli, but also some of the gurus saying that he could still end up as a reliever. That’s a far cry from a #1-2 starter. They’ve paid House and Vaquero like they have top-level talent . . . but they also paid Antuna and Cruz the same way.
KW
23 Mar 22 at 1:01 pm
Here’s a rough attempt to categorize the guys who more or less could have MLB talent:
Star-level top-100 talent: Ruiz, House, Vaquero, Cavalli
Possible star-level ceilings: Rutledge, Lara, White, Quintana. There is divided opinion among the gurus about Quintana. Some have him with tools close to Vaquero’s; others have him below de la Rosa. Most gurus don’t have T.J. White rated highly, and presumably there’s a reason that he fell to the 5th round. But guys with legit 60/70 power grades don’t grow on trees, and he hit well in his pro debut. There is no guarantee whatsoever with any of these players, but they have some higher-level tools.
Talent to be quality MLB players: Henry, Cronin, Lile, Ramirez, Adams (already graduated). Some might put Lile in the next category, but he’s been bulking up and is still young, so there’s time for the power to come.
Heavily paid and/or hyped but still with a lot of ???: Antuna, Cruz, Infante, Adon, de la Rosa, Pineda, S. Romero, Denaburg, Boissiere. Most of these are self-explanatory to folks who follow the system. All could have MLB talent, or may never get close to an MLB field. I’m not quite sure that Pineda is good enough to be included in this club anymore, particularly since they felt they need to trade for three catchers at the deadline. I have Boissiere here for lack of a better place to put him. He was drafted fairly highly but may not have the power for a corner position. There’s a fine line between being the next Mark Grace and the next Jose Marmolejos.
Boom or bust potential: Carrillo, Parker, Frizzell. Hardly anyone mentions Frizzell, who came out of nowhere to have a monster senior season at A&M. Odds are that he won’t be able to replicate that as a pro, but if he actually clicks, he’ll be a steal.
Missing: 15-20 pitchers I could list who have MLB potential. I don’t think we’re missing the next big thing among them, though. Cate was probably the highest rated among them before last season, but he really struggled. Evan Lee got added to the 40-man, but based a lot more on potential than results. There’s a (very) outside chance that a Jake Irvin or Tyler Dyson could regain college form and emerge as a potential starter, but it’s doubtful. The same could be said for Drew Mendoza among the hitters.
Beyond Mendoza, it’s hard to think of position players not listed who have a real shot at being MLB starters. Maybe an Alu, Barrerra, or Mendez could develop into competent reserves, or a few other guys, but regulars? Probably not.
I should add that I’m not predicting huge success for any of these guys . . . or huge failure. It’s hard to truly be successful at the MLB level, though, no matter your tools or prospect rankings. Just ask Robles or Kieboom. Odds are that the Nats will get only a couple of everyday regulars out of all the guys listed, and maybe a starting pitcher or two. That may not sound like much, but it would beat their total drafted success from the last decade.
KW
23 Mar 22 at 1:49 pm
Uh oh, Robles taking them to arbitration, and after a season where he fell apart and got sent to the minors. That’s usually a one-way ticket out of town with Rizzo, but Robles would have very depressed trade value right now. That said, he isn’t essential to the everyday lineup, either, with the emergence of Thomas. If he could be moved for some pitching help, I wouldn’t be shocked.
KW
24 Mar 22 at 9:44 pm
Robles going to arb is a tough one … agree, Rizzo doesn’t seem to like being challenged. I feel like i’ve got a post or a xls somewhere that shows everyone who challenged their team in arb… may have to dig it up.
Todd Boss
27 Mar 22 at 1:19 pm
I just saw the penalties for exceeding the luxury tax, which is $230 million.
Not too bad until you get to $270 million when it is a 42.5% tax and the team drops its 1st round pick drops 10 spots. The Mets threshold, $290 million, has a 60% tax.
Mark L
30 Mar 22 at 6:32 am
At what point do we start talking about how epically bad the Nationals are shaping up to be? It’s pretty depressing. The pitching just isn’t there, and most of the hitting hasn’t been good in camp. They keep trotting Robles out there, but he didn’t get his first hit of the spring until yesterday. He’s being beaten out by the carcass of Dee Strange-Gordon, who hasn’t been good since 2017. It’s looking more and more like an Oriole lineup every day.
It doesn’t seem like the Nats are actively trying to tank, but what they’ve ended up with ain’t good. There’s certainly nothing here to inspire Soto to extend, or to encourage his lil’ bro to sign.
Looking ahead, here’s a detailed draft prospects list:
https://www.prospectslive.com/prospects-live/2022-mlb-draft-top-400-prospects
I don’t want a high school arm at #5. Looks like there will be several college bats in play. The Nats don’t need one of the catchers. I’d probably favor a college bat, although I wouldn’t mind a flyer on Elijah Green if he really does fall out of the top tier.
Is it possible that Kumar Rocker could fall to #45? (He’s #48 on this list.) In addition to Rocker, there are several top-50 college pitchers who are already down with injuries. Those types of guys sliding down a draft board are a known weakness for Mr. Rizzo.
KW
30 Mar 22 at 11:50 am
Beyond the top pick, there’s some fairly wide variation between the last list and this one:
https://www.mlb.com/prospects/draft/
KW
30 Mar 22 at 11:54 am
Todd, being a pitching guy you must be stoked that Max will be pitching Opening Day here. He’s got a bit of a tight hamstring but I can’t imagine it will keep him down.
Mark L
2 Apr 22 at 11:34 am