We’re through the super regionals, and have a CWS field that is, frankly, stacked. It’s going to be a great CWS.
First, lets recap the Supers.
- #1 Wake Forest v #16 Alabama: Wake Forest squeaked out a 5-4 opener, then blasted Alabama 22-5 to move to Omaha. In 5 post-season games, Wake has outscored its opponents 75-16. Wow.
- #8 Stanford v Texas: Stanford lost the first but turned things around to squeak past Texas. In game 2, starter Quinn Matthews was allowed to finish a CG on 156 pitches despite an 8-3 lead in one of the more egregious abuses of a starter we’ve seen in the college game in some time.
- #5 LSU v #12 Kentucky: LSU blasted Kentucky in game 1 as Paul Skenes wasn’t over-worked (as we can’t say the same for Matthews), getting yanked at 101 pitches in their 14-0 win. They finished off Ky 8-3 on Sunday.
- Tennessee v Southern Miss: Tennessee came from a game down to advance past Southern Miss.
- TCU v #14 Indiana State (TCU = host instead of the seed due to Indiana State hosting the Special Olympics): this cost Indiana State, as TCU took two straight to advance.
- Oregon v Oral Roberts (Oregon = host); Oral Roberts blew a 5 run lead in game one, and STILL managed to advance, becoming just the 3rd fourth-seed from a regional to make it to Omaha since the expansion to 64 teams. (Stony Brook and Fresno State).
- #7 UVA v Duke; Duke took out UVA in game one and looked good, but UVA took the next two to advance.
- #2 Florida v #15 South Carolina: Florida took two close ones from South Carolina to advance.
Super Regional predictions vs Actual: I only got 4 of 8 in my previous predictions.
CWS Field (with original national seeds driving the teams):
- Group 1 (1,4,5,8): Wake Forest, Tennessee, LSU, Stanford
- Group 2 (2,3,6,7): Florida, TCU, Oral Roberts, UVA.
Prospect Watch. From Nats perspective all eyes are still on LSU, but now Florida is here too, meaning 3 of the likely top 5 picks are in Omaha for a star studded CWS from a prospect/scouting perspective. Here’s Keith Law’s take on the 15 major draft prospects in Omaha.
- LSU: Dylan Crews and Paul Skenes, projected to go 1st and 2nd overall
- Florida: Wyatt Langford, projected top 5 pick, along with another arm in Hurston Waldrep as a 1st round projection. A bit further down: Brandon Sproat, Josh Rivera.
- Tennessee: Chase Dollander, who was in the 1-1 mix but who has struggled, continues to build up draft sock. A bit further down: Maui Atuna.
- Wake Forest: Their RHP Rhett Lowder is a possible top 10. 3B Brock Wilken end of 1st round. A bit further down: Sean Sullivan LHP.
- Virginia: their Catcher Kyle Teel and 3B Jake Gelof both top 50 prospects.
- Stanford: SS Tommy Troy is a mid-1st rounder
- TCU 3B Brayden Taylor an end of 1st rounder
So, lots of draft talent on display in Omaha.
My Predictions?
Group 1: Wake Forest over LSU in the group final, with Tennessee getting a win and Stanford going 2 and out.
Wake leads the nation in pitching … by a full POINT in team ERA. That’s amazing. And they’re no slouches at the plate either, as we’ve seen as they’ve averaged 15 runs a game in the post-season (they’re 5th in team OPS). So that’s a very balanced team. LSU likely throws Skenes in game one against Tennessee, but Tennessee’s been using Dollander as their 2nd starter, so they’ll throw him in an elimination game against Stanford to get an LSU rematch with both teams on their 3rd starter. But LSU’s pitching depth only goes so far, and Wake basically has 3 friday night starters to blow through the draw. Unless Skenes can get another start LSU will struggle to get past Wake and falls in the national semis.
Group 2: Virginia over Florida, with TCU and Oral Roberts finishing 3rd and 4th in some order. UVA leads the nation in team BA, is third in ERA, and will find a way to win. The problem is that UVA plays Florida in the opener and has proven to be a slow starter. But they’re deep and can withstand an early loss.
final: Wake over UVA in an all-ACC CWS final despite half the regional hosts being SEC.
It’s too bad that Wake and LSU are on the same side of the bracket, and that it likely won’t be a Skenes-Lowder matchup since they won’t meet in the first game. But it likely will be Skenes-Dollander in LSU-TN.
Big matchup to start the other side of the bracket with UVA-UF.
Worth noting: LSU and Florida didn’t meet in the regular season or the SEC tournament. They’re my picks to make the final here. LSU has a stronger lineup, but the Gators have more pitching depth. I’m going to go with Langford getting to raise the trophy.
It would be fun if Oral Roberts can win a game or two and keep shaking things up.
KW
16 Jun 23 at 8:48 am
Like most Nat fans, I don’t set a lot of stock in what Bowden says, but here’s a link to his draft board if you have an Athletic subscription:
https://theathletic.com/4593526/2023/06/09/mlb-draft-top-25-prospects-2023/
FWIW, here are his grades on the Big 3:
Crews: HIT: 65 PWR: 60 RUN: 60 ARM: 55 FLD: 55
Skenes: FB: 75 SLI: 70 CH: 50 CTL: 55 CMND: 50
Langford: HIT: 60 PWR: 60 RUN: 55 ARM: 55 FLD: 50
For comparison, here are the MLB.com grades:
Crews: Hit: 70 Power: 60 Run: 60 Arm: 55 Field: 55 Overall: 65
Skenes: Fastball: 80 Slider: 70 Changeup: 50 Control: 55 Overall: 65
Langford: Hit: 60 Power: 65 Run: 55 Arm: 50 Field: 50 Overall: 60
Someone please explain to me how the Skenes command grade is only 50 (or 55) when he’s only walked 18 in 107 innings. Also, if Skenes’s FB isn’t an 80, then I don’t know what is. His easy 101-102 is ridiculous.
I think MLB has it right with Crews a 10-point hit-tool advantage on Langford, but Langford with a 5-point power advantage.
KW
16 Jun 23 at 9:09 am
Skenes maintains like a 10/1 K/BB ratio despite throwing 100 and he only has a 50 command grade? Really??
Todd Boss
16 Jun 23 at 3:16 pm
CWS starts with two wild games, with UVA on the wrong end of one of them. You’re not going to go far if your bullpen gives up five in three innings. Clutch homer by Langford to tie it. Hoos already facing a tough elimination game against equally shocked TCU.
KW
17 Jun 23 at 8:24 am
I’ve said this before, and I think Derek has too: how do the Pirates pass on Skenes? He sure as heck looks like a generational talent. I now have no doubt that the Nats would take him at #2 if he’s there.
In comparison, I’m still looking for the dominant-player quality of Crews. He’s very good, very consistent, and he doesn’t strike out much, which would be a refreshing change for the Nats’ system. Teams obviously pitch him carefully. But he may not even be the most feared power hitter on his own team.
On Friday night, Langford hit the longest homer in Omaha stadium history to tie the game.
We’ll see. Crews and Langford will each have at least two more games, probably more than that. I don’t think perceptions really will change . . . but it would be tough to think about taking a high schooler over either of them.
KW
17 Jun 23 at 10:03 pm
123 pitches for Skenes last night. He looked great again, and featured his changeup a lot more (many swings and misses). He was still pumping 100 in the 8th – but 123 pitches is too many, even if he pitches only once a week.
Derek
18 Jun 23 at 7:42 am
Yes, his NCAA tournament pitch counts have been 124, 101, and 123. Not cool. One would think that he might be shut down after the draft. LSU doesn’t trust its bullpen.
It was interesting that Tennessee didn’t start Dollander, almost assuming that he/they couldn’t beat Skenes.
KW
18 Jun 23 at 8:24 am
Also, Skenes’s 2 ER (in the 8th) were kinda bogus. The first run got on base with probably the hardest hit ball all night – a clean line drive to right center, which Crews cut off. Crews made a nice throw to beat the runner to 2B but it hit the runner. I wouldn’t have had Skenes start the 8th but they really should have pulled him here – but he stayed in. The next AB, after the batter fouled off some good fastballs with 2 strikes, the runner scored on a 47 hopper ground ball and Skenes was pulled. The bullpen allowed Skenes’s second run.
It’s 100% clear LSU doesn’t trust its bullpen. I think 110+ pitches is not great but not terrible given that Skenes pitches once a week. I’ll be really upset if they bring him back on short rest to throw an inning in an elimination game or something. That strikes me as (a) worse that a long start; and (b) something you CANNOT do if you’re also allowing him to throw 110+ pitches.
Derek
18 Jun 23 at 10:01 am
A quick and quiet exit for UVA. Florida seems to be in the driver’s seat on that side of the bracket.
A titanic clash today between Wake and LSU. Some star power in the Stanford-Tennessee elimination game as well. I assume that Dollander will get the start for the Vols.
KW
19 Jun 23 at 9:04 am