
Here’s a quick overview of the Nats 2025 IFA class. Yesterday they signed 14 international players (6 from the Dominican Republic, another 8 from Venezuela) and sprinkled out bonuses of at least 300k to seven different guys.
Here’s a few Quick Observations, since there’s obviously limitations as to what we “know” about a bunch of teen-agers in central and south America.
2025 is a lower risk/spread the wealth bonus pool dollar year for the team
The Nats over the last decade have vacillated between high risk and low risk IFA classes, choosing in some years to put all their (bonus money) eggs in one basket and in other years to spread around the wealth.
- All in on 1-2 player classes: 2024, 2022, 2021, 2016
- Spread the Wealth classes: 2025, 2023, 2019, 2018, 2017, 2015
2025 seems to be a “spread the wealth” year, with seven announced players netting signing bonuses above $300k.
Their large bonus pool has allowed them to spread the wealth AND give out a big bonus
They’ve taken some big swings in terms of dollar amounts since Rizzo arrived: some of their biggest signing bonuses being:
- 2024: Hurtado, Victor at $2.8M
- 2022: Vaquero, Cristhian at $4.9M
- 2021: Cruz, Armando at $3.9M
- 2016: Antuna, Yasel# at $3.9M
This year’s $1.9M given to Cortesia, Brayan will be the 5th highest bonus since the Juan Soto class in 2015. But, given the four figures above and the relative “success” we’ve seen out of them … it may be considered a bargain.
Would anyone here say that their four big swings listed above have panned out? We’ve litigated Antuna to death, but right now Cruz, Vaquero, and Hurtado are not exactly trending positive. Hurtado hit just .218 in the DSL last year, Vaquero hit .190 in Low-A last year, and Cruz hit .224 mostly in low-A and isn’t even on MLBPipeline’s top 30 prospects for us anymore.
Trivia question: who’s the best Nats-selected/home grown IFA prospect in our system? Probably Andry Lara.
The Class is very Hitter-heavy
Not one of their seven big money guys is a pitcher. Among the 7, we have two Catchers, two SS, one 2B, and two OF. So, it sounds like they’re going to run it back with a lot of the DSL arms there now, most of whom are already 19-20. We’ll have to keep that in mind if we suddenly see a 20yr old starter blowing away 16-17yr olds in the DSL.
The Class is a bit old
There’s just one guy who’s 16 as of the signing date. Most of the class is 17 now and will turn 18 soon after the end of the 2015 season. One guy they signed (RHP Juan Lopez) is already 19; will he even go to the DSL?
They Still have some room in the pool
The known/announced bonus amounts total about $4.9M spread across seven guys. They announced another 7 signees. Usually if a bonus amount is not listed for an IFA, its a standard $10k. If we assume that figure for the remaining seven, then the Nats are leaving about $1.2M on the table right now. Perhaps that’s funds for later IFA signings who might pop up (they have signed IFAs outside of the Jan 15th window in the past), or perhaps the seven remaining all got 6-figure deals that eat into that remainder.
Remember: only half of these guys will ever even get to the US
Here’s a few quick stats on our recent IFA classes. Now, given that this is “early” for the more recent classes, but here’s quick stats on the size of the class and the number of players who moved domestically:
- 2024: 24 players in class, 0 moved domestically, 5 released
- 2023: 23/9/5
- 2022: 20/11/9
- 2021: 20/10/11
- 2020: 3/0/3
- 2019: 21/9/12
So, as you can see, we see roughly half these guys get released right out of the DSL, with the other half making it to the FCL. From there, usually a handful make their way up the chain a little bit, but many of them stall at the Low-A juncture, where they’re forced to go out in the world and travel for the first time.
Our IFA Tracker and the Nats big Board are now updated
Click here for the Nats IFA tracker where I’ve filled in the 2025 class.
Click here for the Nats Big Board, where i’ve put all the 2025 IFA signees into the XST section for now. Odds are they’ll all go to the DSL, but I don’t want to do that assignment until its officially announced.
Lastly, here’s some useful other links for you to peruse, if you’re interested in the IFA 2025 numbers and class:
- Bonus pools for 2025 IFA season: we were at $6.1M
- BA class overview of top prospects: we signed three in the top 100 in Brayan Cortesia, Daniel Hernandez, and Rony Bello.
- BA’s 1/15/25 top players with scouting reports.
- BA’s Jan 15 class signing tracker:
- BA’s International bonus board
- Nats 2025 class introduction story at nationals.com
Longenhagen’s The Board has short player profiles for the top 2. He’s higher on Hernandez than Cartesia, praising Hernandez’s swing but noting he has work to do defensively. As for Cartesia, he dissents a bit from Rodriquez calling him a 5 tool player, saying he’s more skiils over tools. He does line up with others on his big frame, but says he looks like an MLB backup if his hitting doesn’t develop.
JCA
16 Jan 25 at 4:15 pm
I’ve commented about the Nats’ history with Latin signees on Luke’s site so don’t want to repeat myself too much on that matter. The Nats have had so very little real success in the decade since the Soto/Robles era that it’s difficult to get too excited.
These guys are one to two years younger than high school draftees. They’re equivalent to high school juniors, without the advanced year-round development available in the States, and usually without the nutrition, and weight training, and all the rest. Compare a photo of Luke Dickerson to any of these guys.
The other big piece of the Latin puzzle now is the contraction of the minors, which makes it considerably more difficult for these guys — and for U.S. high school draftees — to get the multi-level development that they need. We look at the DSL stats and forget that it is, for all intents and purposes, a league made up of high schoolers, probably playing on fields not as nice as those at most high schools in suburban DC. Meanwhile, they’re starting many of the U.S. high school picks at full-season A-ball, where they may be facing collegiate pitchers from power conferences. That’s definitely life coming at you fast.
Also, the countdown toward Rule 5 eligibility starts one to two years earlier age-wise on the international guys than it does on the U.S. high schoolers. That’s why the Nats, and every other team, find themselves in a Rule 5 pickle every fall with promising Latin kids who haven’t played above A or A+, with no business being on the 40-man.
You still have to play the Latin game, though, and play it the best you can. But please stop ranking guys among actual prospects based on signing bonuses. The fact that Hurtado is still fairly highly ranked by several outlets after hitting .218 against high-school-level pitching is rather embarrassing. That’s not saying at all that he still can’t turn into something. He won’t even turn 18 until May. He would be considered a young high school draftee if he was a U.S. kid taken in this summer’s draft. It’s actually kind of funny how worked up we get about the $1M flyer they took on Brenner Cox when they paid Hurtado nearly three times that much, at a younger age. And he wasn’t going to go play QB for the Longhorns.
KW
16 Jan 25 at 6:03 pm
Jake Alu has retired from professional baseball.
rdExposfan
16 Jan 25 at 8:03 pm
Salute to a 24th-rounder who lived the dream and will forever be a “major leaguer” — an exclusive club of fewer than 24,000.
KW
16 Jan 25 at 8:55 pm
@KW, it is indeed frustrating to watch MLB willfully dismantle a player development model that, while imperfect, was still far superior to whatever they’re doing now.
We only need to look at the present sad state of baseball in Puerto Rico to see the future of Dominican, Venezuela and Caribbean baseball.
While MLB faces a impending crisis of waning interest in the game, they seem only intent on constructing new barriers of access in order to save a few bucks.
Will
17 Jan 25 at 7:11 am
I’m new gear to forgive me that I’ve missed the Antuna discourse. What’s the take other than “Well that signing sure didn’t work out”?
Matt
17 Jan 25 at 7:46 am
@ICA: thanks for the note. Here’s Longenhagen’s data with clickable reports on the two top guys in our IFA class: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2025-international-prospect-rankings-and-scouting-reports/ and https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/international-players .
Todd Boss
17 Jan 25 at 9:37 am
@Matt: Antuna draws the ire of Nats prospect fans not because he struggled for his entire career … but because the Nats gave him half a dozen opportunities entirely driven by his signing bonus as opposed to his performance on the field.
He was added to the 40-man ahead of December 2020 rule-5 draft; at that point in his career he had played 87 games in low-A with a .220/.293/.331 slash line at the level in 2018. He missed basically the entire 2019 season due to injury, and of course didn’t play in 2020. Putting him on the 40-man was a completely asinine decision at that point, wasting a roster spot on a player who had no business being there.
Antuna then proceeded to hit .227 in High-A in 2021, then got socially promoted to AA in 2022, where he hit .143. He got moved off of SS to a corner OF position along the way. He was finally DFA’d off the 40-man in Dec 2022, predictably passed through waivers without a claim. In 2023 he bounced around three levels, hit a combined .180 and elected MLFA after being in the system for so long.
Antuna’s 40-man appointment to avoid Rule-5 was the latest in a line of such promotions that the team did not out of protecting talent, but out of protecting its “investment.” They managed to do it again in 2022 with Jeremy De la Rosa, but no one really since.
Todd Boss
17 Jan 25 at 9:45 am
@will and KW: I remain patently dumbfounded by the short-sightedness of MLB in general w/r/t draft bonus limitations, elimination of minor league levels, and a push for an international draft.
What is the actual cost to a MLB team to field a short-season A-ball squad for a few months? Maybe $10k per player per season for a 30-man roster plus the staff? I mean, if that entire total is more than a few million i’d be shocked, yet MLB teams routinely shell out 8-figure salaries for one-year deals for middling sluggers in their 30s so they can hit .220 and get released in June.
All a short-season does is help with development of players, which is the entire frigging goal of the minors.
Todd Boss
17 Jan 25 at 9:48 am
I was interested to see that the guy the Nats drafted in the 5th round last summer, Randal Diaz, is from Puerto Rico but somehow ended up at Indiana State to play collegiate baseball. I wonder whether others from there are trying to find a college route. There’s such a rich baseball tradition from there that has totally withered now.
I’m curious to see what Diaz can do. He had big offensive numbers last spring for a team that made the NCAA tournament, albeit in a lower-tier conference.
KW
17 Jan 25 at 9:55 am
Diaz is exactly the kind of guy who would have gone straight to Short-A to play. Instead, he sat in XST the entire year after signing with no appearances.
He seems to be playing Puerto Rican winter ball.
http://mlb.com/player/randal-diaz-695538?stats=career-r-hitting-minors&year=2024
https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/team.cgi?id=a1fdd2ff
seems to be playing at least part time, hitting .222 in winter ball
Todd Boss
17 Jan 25 at 10:08 am
“Diaz is exactly the kind of guy who would have gone straight to Short-A to play” — exactly! The good ol’ NY-Penn League, one of several “rookie leagues” that got totally vaporized. I thought the complex leagues were supposed to pick up some of that slack, but they end them before any of the draftees have signed/reported. The competition in the old rookie leagues, made up mostly of college draftees, used to be really good, plus you could slip in someone like a young Juan Soto or Anderson Franco (remember him?) and see what they could do against better competition.
Wow, what a blast-from-the-past list of names on the 2016 Auburn, NY, roster that briefly included a 17-year-old kid named Soto, in his first season of pro ball:
https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/team.cgi?id=f16941ab
Ten players on that roster are highlighted as having at least gotten a cup of coffee at the MLB level.
KW
17 Jan 25 at 11:54 am
@KW, unbelievably only 4 of those 10 players played in the majors for the Nats! Gutierrez, Johnson, Perkins, Neuse, Dunning and Sharp never played for the Nats, while Barrera, Noll, Soto and Gott did (Gott was rehabbing, actually, after making his debut a season earlier for the Angels).
Will
17 Jan 25 at 4:51 pm
The problem with the assumption that the “complex leagues could pick up the slack” is … the complex leagues are already picking up the slack for DSL. We seem to promote about half our DSL guys year over year to the FCL, then add in a 16-18 player draft class … along with all of the previous year’s prep draftees, and rehabbers, and lower-level college draftees who couldn’t cut it at low-A … suddenly your FCL team is 45 players when only 9 can play at a time.
Todd Boss
17 Jan 25 at 10:55 pm
Knizner signing: fun facts about Knizner: he was born in Glen Allen (where I currently live) and is a product of the powerhouse Tuckahoe Little League. He went to Hanover HS, which won the last Virginia AAA state championship before the state split up into six divisions in 2013 with Knizner leading the way. He went to NC State, blew up, all american, and got drafted.
Hanover, by the way, is embroiled in a really bad scandal right now and has had their baseball program disbanded for the 2025 season due to hazing accusations.
Todd Boss
17 Jan 25 at 11:05 pm
Out of curiosity, I looked up Bob Uecker’s stats to see if he was really as bad as he claimed. In a word, “yes”:
.200/.293/.287, -1.0 career bWAR, 63 OPS+
Poor guy didn’t even have any luck, with a .238 BABIP. He had no career stolen bases but was caught three times (and probably had good stories about all three).
RIP to Mr. Baseball.
KW
18 Jan 25 at 1:57 pm
Knizner’s stats resemble Ueckers: career 66 OPS+
KW
18 Jan 25 at 2:12 pm
From the Auburn 2016 list, I clicked on Blake Perkins. He was drafted in 2015 but didn’t make the majors until 2023 and didn’t become a marginal regular until 2024 (81 OPS+). If it was that difficult to develop a high (2d-round) high school pick, it makes you wonder why teams are taking any high schoolers now, with the development system/leagues for younger players almost completely eliminated.
“But hey, we could get a 10-tool player like Elijah Green!” Dude could have bought a house in Fredericksburg.
KW
18 Jan 25 at 6:31 pm
So one Neanderthal didn’t vote for Ichiro. I doubt he has the guts to try to defend that vote in public, either. Sigh.
Good for CC and Wagner. Both deserving. Beltran and Andruw J progressed. Both will be in sooner or later, if not now then with an Eras committee vote.
I saw a few writers make passionate appeals for Utley, but he didn’t get significant traction. All the PED guys still stuck in purgatory.
KW
21 Jan 25 at 7:13 pm
How someone can vote for a cheater, Carlos Beltran, and refuse to vote for another PED cheater requires some pretty wild logical somersaults.
The inconsistency even within PED cheaters, David Ortiz vs Manny Ramirez, who tested positive for PEDs in the same testing round in 2003, is even wilder.
Then with the Veterans Committee, or whatever they’re calling it these days, electing whoever they feel like, while ignoring a subjective group of the actual best players of the past few decades, the HoF is becoming less and less interesting to me.
Will
22 Jan 25 at 7:33 am