Nationals Arm Race

"… the reason you win or lose is darn near always the same – pitching.” — Earl Weaver

Fourteen week Check-in with 1-1 Draft Candidates

35 comments

Arnold seems like a lock at this point for the top 5; would the Nats pluck him for 1-1? Photo via FSU sports page

Here’s our seventh check-in on the 1-1 candidates this spring. We’re at the end of week 14 of the college season, which is also the end of the regular season for the major conferences. Next week is conference tournaments, then we get the field of 64 and regionals. We’ll continue to have stat updates but they’ll likely be tied to post-season performances going forward.

Important Draft related news and notes, plus Mocks and Draft rankings that have published since our last posting, are listed below:

  • MLBPipeline’s Jim Callis published his first official Mock Draft of the season on 5/6/25. He goes Holliday, Doyle, Anderson, Hernandez, and Arnold. Highest i’ve seen either Doyle or especially Anderson.
  • Keith Law at the Athletic released his first Mock draft on 5/7/25. He goes Holliday, Doyle, Arquette, Arnold, and Witherspoon (?), who i’ve not ever mentioned/studied once in this series. He’s Oklahoma’s Friday night RHP starter (sound familiar?).
  • Baseball America Mock Draft 3.0 on 5/12/25. They go Holliday, Arquette, Hernandez, Doyle, Arnold. Pretty high for Arquette, but more in line with my current predictions (see the bottom).
  • ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel posted a “mini-mock” and his top 150 list on 5/14/25. Of course his top 5 in the mock didn’t match his ranks. Mock went Holliday, Arnold, Hernandez, Doyle, Anderson. His ranks go Arnold, Willits, Holliday, Hernandez, Carlson. He loves the prep kids in FV.
  • MLBPipeline’s Jonathan Mayo posted his latest Mock draft on 5/15/25. Holliday, Arnold, Doyle, Arquette, Anderson. The MLB guys clearly like Anderson.

Aggregation Stats for College Baseball for Reference:

Link Block for the top guys under 1-1 consideration

Prep Players who are in the running for 1-1:

Prospects guys now removed from 1-1 discussion at this point. I’m just leaving their ranks at this point for space considerations.

Here’s some updated commentary on the players seemingly in the running.

  • Arnold had a quality start in Berkeley (you know, Cal-Berkeley, a member of the “Atlantic Coast” Conference), then got roughed up by #4 UNC in his final regular season start, giving up 4 runs in 5 IP. FSU is likely to be a top 8 seed, which means Arnold probably gets at least three more starts (ACC tournament, Regionals, and Super-Regionals) before FSU is likely done; hopefully they make the CWS for even more looks.
  • Arquette had a decent series against Long Beach State for his top-5 ranked OSU team, and his performance seems to have reached its stability point for the season. He’s now at .348/.473/.676 from .351/.472/.701 two weeks ago, almost identical numbers across the board. He seems like a lock for the top 5, but seems out of the running for 1-1 to the Nats.
  • LaViolette finally gets “cut” from this discussion list. I just don’t see him supplanting the college guys on this list for 1-1 consideration, and Callis’ mock has him nearly out of the top 10.
  • Doyle remains on this list to continue discussing now that MLBpipeline has both him and Anderson jumping Arnold in his 5/6/25 mock. He pitched amazingly well to shut down Vandy two weeks ago, 7ip 3h 0r 12K. Then he got shelled in his final regular season start against top-ranked Arkansas: 4 2/3, 11 hits (!), 8 runs. Not the lasting impression to leave with scouts. Luckily he’ll have a couple post-season starts to rebound.
  • Anderson and Doyle both sit near the top of the national K/9 ranks, and had to face down two great teams to end the season. Against #1 Arkansas, Anderson went 5 2/3r, 10/1 K/BB and gave up 2 runs. not bad. Then to finish the season at South Carolina, Anderson went 6 2/3rds and gave up just one run. Definitely finished strong, but he’s 3rd out of 3 top LHP college pitchers on most boards apparently.

Prep kids: Not much news this cycle; most Prep HS schedules are starting to wind down. In fact, I have zero updates on any of the top three prep kids

  • Holliday
  • Hernandez
  • Willits

The Race for 1-1 status: More and more I’m thinking the college arms are not in contention, while we’re seeing fast risers from the prep ranks. I now think the Nats are down to one of 3 guys: Arnold, Hernandez, and Holliday. I think they’re going to end up with Holliday.

In Week 12, I reviewed each of the top 5 teams, discussing their draft proclivities in more detail, which leads me to these guesses as to who they’ll draft. Here’s how I think they’ll pick, assuming we go Holliday 1-1.

  • Angels: close to majors, college guys: Arnold or Doyle. Maybe Arquette
  • Seattle: top-end Prep kids: Willits or more likely Hernandez
  • Colorado: college arms: Doyle or Arnold if available
  • St. Louis: college bats: LaViolette, Arquette more likely.

So my current top 5: Holliday, Arnold, Hernandez, Doyle, Arquette.

Written by Todd Boss

May 19th, 2025 at 8:23 am

Posted in Draft,Prospects

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35 Responses to 'Fourteen week Check-in with 1-1 Draft Candidates'

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  1. I mean, why bother. I guess the same could be said for sports. But whoever they draft will be a Boras client, so he’ll muddle along, have a TJ or two, then go to the Phillies.

    I’m eager to find out how the Nats’ new TV deal will manage to be worse than MASN. It’ll take some real creativity, but I have every faith they’ll come up with a worse product.

    Kevin R

    19 May 25 at 11:08 am

  2. I’m amused that after a very short lived stint being the flavor of the week, Willits is almost completely absent from the top 5 mocks, after being 1-1/2 in several a couple weeks ago.

    Any rumblings of LaViolette reentering the frame are now resoundingly quashed. His bats gone ice cold, with his AVG dropping from .315 to .259, but worst of all the strikeouts are back in the worst way with 22 K in his past 37 AB!!! Yikes.

    Interesting that there’s a growing consensus that Holliday is 1-1… but Doyle is making an interesting late charge, while whatever hype Hernandez gained a couple weeks ago has faded significantly.

    Seems increasingly evident that the Nats will go with Holliday. He’s somehow the safe pick, and has all the markings of a Rizzo guy. But with Green’s recent demotion to Florida, let’s hope he doesn’t possess similar plate approach problems.

    Will

    19 May 25 at 2:04 pm

  3. Doyle looked *awful* the other day. Unless he throws a bunch of 7ip 3h 1r 12K outings in the postseason I’m not sure he’s anything more than a reliever-projection funky arm with a lot fo velocity.

    Todd Boss

    19 May 25 at 2:35 pm

  4. Getting hit hard against one of the 5 best teams in the country is a bit different to getting hit hard by a mid-conference team, or, worse, a high school team. Doyle leads all of the NCAA Division 1 in strikeouts (137) and is 5th (of 778 with min 50 IP) in FIP (3.03).

    As I already said, I think Holliday will go 1-1, but Doyle’s numbers/performance, no matter how you spin them, project better than a reliever.

    Will

    20 May 25 at 8:55 am

  5. @Will: understood … but getting shelled isn’t helping his 1-1 status. If he’d leaked in a couple runs here and there that’s one thing but he gave up like 11 hits. He’ll get another look against a top team soon enough, since the SEC’s conference tournament will guarantee him facing a top team.

    Todd Boss

    20 May 25 at 9:33 am

  6. By the way, Off-topic fun item:

    https://www.mlb.com/milb/news/john-oliver-picks-erie-seawolves-for-rebrand

    So, i’m sure not everyone here watches John Oliver’s Last Week Tonight on HBO, but a couple of weeks ago they did a funny segment on the crazy names Minor League teams have … and came up with a gimmick; they put out a blanket offer to any one of the 150 or so minor league teams out there; their show would completely fund a re-brand for the team … with the caveat of, the team actually gets zero input into it.

    TL/DR the link above: 47 teams called them with interest. They picked the AA-affiliate of Detroit in Erie, Pennsylvania. Current mascot: “SeaWolves.”

    Hilarious quote from Erie’s team: “They wrote to us with a list of 11 good reasons to pick them, one of which was ‘The SeaWolves play baseball nowhere near the sea,’” said Oliver. “That’s a problem, Erie. We can help you fix that.”

    Todd Boss

    20 May 25 at 2:18 pm

  7. I wouldn’t hate the Nats picking Holliday. Even though there are dreaded “swing and miss” issues, his seem to be more on the level of House than Green.

    That said, particularly in a year where there isn’t a clear-cut “best player available,” I don’t see a lot of benefit to the Nats right now where they are as a franchise drafting this particular player. Their SS seems to have gotten his head screwed on straight, and their 3B prospect should be in the majors in a few weeks. There’s no spot to move Holliday to LF. On down the chain, Seaver King and Cayden Wallace have struggled thus far but are still thought of as significant INF prospects. Among the younger set, Luke Dickerson and Angel Feliz look legit for now.

    The other part of the Holliday story is that you have to calculate him still being four or five years down the road to help in the majors. A college pick is more like two or three. If you truly want a hitter, Arquette seems to profile a lot like Holliday but much more advanced in terms of development and quality of competition (albeit with the same positional questions).

    With where the Nats are right now, and really MLB pitching as a whole, to me it’s hard not to think about stockpiling starting pitching. Even though Anderson has been rising, I think the real conversation would be between Arnold and Doyle. I’ve said a hundred times that Doyle looks a whole lot more like a Rizzo pitching prospect than Arnold does.

    The caveat, of course, is that the injury risk is significantly higher with pitchers.

    Also, if you’re truly about the “best player available,” there’s some buzz that it may actually be Hernandez, but a high school RHP has never gone 1/1. With him, I’d say the same thing that I did about Holliday: are we sure that this organization, spinning its wheels in a perpetual rebuild, can afford to wait until the end of the decade for a high school pick to start helping in the majors?

    Not a mock draft, but my personal board for the Nats right now would be Doyle, Arquette, Arnold, Hernandez, Holliday. Then I’d pray that Doyle doesn’t have multiple 110-pitch outings in the postseason.

    KW

    20 May 25 at 8:22 pm

  8. In other news, ESPN/McDaniel posted an updated top 50 prospects (all prospects, not draft), and House comes in at #46, and Susana and Dickerson are explicitly referenced as just missing out. This is the first time I’ve seen Dickerson in top 100 consideration (much less top 50!). I also wonder what happened to Sykora?

    https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/45223803/top-50-2025-mlb-prospects-updated-roman-anthony-bubba-chandler-marcelo-mayer

    Will

    21 May 25 at 1:07 pm

  9. None of the college arms impress me: I’d rank them Arnold, Doyle, Anderson and then a gap to Bremner and others. Doyle scares the crap out of me. His MLBpipeline scouting report says it all: “Despite his dominance this spring, there are concerns about his ability to succeed as a starter at the next level because he has an unorthodox delivery and constantly throws with maximum intent” To me, that screams injury once he moves to a professional workload of every-5 days and Feb->Oct working. At best, its a reliever profile. You just cannot take a reliever as your 1-1 pick. Arnold isn’t much better, with a “funky arm slot” and one who gets by college hitters with a two-pitch arsenal that I worry won’t stand up to pro hitters. Maybe he’s not direct to relief but two pitchers == releiver as well.

    It’d be one thing if one of these college bats exploded … but the only exploding LaViolette did this spring was to his signing bonus. Arquette is a SS who will move to 3B, who is lesser talented and older version of Holliday. So that leaves Hernandez, who yes many believe is the best of the class. If the Nats are seriously considering him, then more power to them.

    I think the draft goes Holliday, Arnold, Hernandez, Doyle, Arquette.
    I think the future talent level is Hernandez, Holliday, a gap, then Willits, Arnold, Doyle, then the rest.

    You don’t draft for need. I don’t care if it looks like House is a gold glove 3B for a decade; Holliday can move to another position, or he can be flipped if he’s completely blocked and can’t find an OF position. Look at what happened today: Crews gets hurt, suddenly Hassell (who some in this space wanted to cut ties with last december) is in the majors and probably gets starts with Young dinged up. You just never know.

    Todd Boss

    21 May 25 at 3:25 pm

  10. @Will: I absolutely took note of the Dickerson call out. That’s awesome. And something I never thought would happen this fast.

    Todd Boss

    21 May 25 at 3:25 pm

  11. Doyle absolutely is a divisive prospect. When he popped up at #1 on Law’s first list, I was shocked, as he’s far down the ranking list for some other shops. He’s crept into the top 5 of nearly every mock now, though, indicating that there’s a lot of buzz about him. I am not in the tank for him, and share a lot of the concerns expressed, but I also think he’ll be the first from this class to reach to majors. Whether he can stay healthy there once he arrives will be the question . . . but also the question about every pitcher these days.

    How do we know that Arquette is “lesser talented” than Holliday? Yes, he’s older, but he’s also proven contact and proven power against a lot better competition than Holliday has. (Of course “proven” may be relative; we certainly thought Crews and King had proven contact when the Nats drafted them.)

    As I said above, I don’t hate Holliday. And we all know that Rizzo loves star prospects, and sometimes gets blinded by them. I’ll confess that part of my skepticism is sheer weariness of waiting-waiting-waiting for our high school picks to do something. One can go farther back than Kieboom, but with him, Denaburg, House, and Green, there’s been a hell of a lot of waiting and frustration. We hope that House is finally on the cusp, but then at one point we, and everyone else, thought Kieboom was (consensus top-20 prospect in 2020).

    If we’re being honest, this is a scary draft class. I could see this being a year where three or four of the top 10 picks never make The Show, or at least never break 5 career WAR. Who would be the “safest” pick? Probably Arquette, but I also could be convinced that he may not have a very high ceiling. Maybe Hernandez has the highest ceiling, but also one of the lowest floors, so he’d be a big risk.

    And Holliday? He doesn’t really have speed, and he’s not going to stay at shortstop. So the decision on him totally comes down to whether one believes that he will have 25-30 HR power that is ideal for a corner position, and whether he will make enough consistent contact to realize it. Gee, that sure sounds a lot like House’s draft profile . . . and why 10 other teams passed on him. (FWIW, I still like House’s ceiling more than I do those of the two HS SS’s picked ahead of him, Marcelo Meyer and Jordan Lawlar, despite their higher prospect rankings.) But there was a HS SS in that first round who has done OK for himself, a local kid from Severna Park named Merrill. Twenty-six teams passed on him. The Pads picked another local kid named Wood in the second, both right out from under our noses.

    It ain’t an exact science, to be sure!

    KW

    21 May 25 at 5:41 pm

  12. Arquette vs Holliday: i’ve seen comparisons of the two as basically the same guy; oversized hit-first SS who likely moves to 3B professionally. Here’s t heir mlb tools side by side:
    – Holliday: Hit: 50 | Power: 65 | Run: 50 | Arm: 55 | Field: 50 | Overall: 60
    – Arquette: Hit: 50 | Power: 55 | Run: 50 | Arm: 60 | Field: 50 | Overall: 55

    So, if you believe MLB Holliday projects for a lot more power, while Arquette is given a better arm, otherwise they’re equal … except that Holliday is 3 years younger, which really works with some teams’ thought processes.

    This draft class does suck though for the teams picking top. Law basically said not one guy in this 1-1 consideration would have been in last year’s top 5. it’s just a bad year to pick 1st. Ah well.

    Todd Boss

    22 May 25 at 9:36 am

  13. “it’s just a bad year to pick 1st.” Sums this whole conversation up well!

    I guess it’s karma for hitting the 1-1 jackpot in consecutive years.

    Will

    22 May 25 at 10:04 am

  14. @KW: FWIW, while I haven’t done a comprehensive survey of draft classes, I have looked at many of them. And in the ones that I’ve looked at it’s pretty standard for multiple players in the top ten to never make any impact in the bigs.

    John C.

    22 May 25 at 12:24 pm

  15. John — Yes, you’re right. But some years are worse than others, and this feels like the 2016/2017 groups.

    KW

    22 May 25 at 4:32 pm

  16. Law has a new draft ranking list:

    https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6370699/2025/05/22/2025-mlb-draft-top-100-ranking-ethan-holliday-liam-doyle/

    “It’s a weak class at the very top; I don’t think anyone on this list would have cracked the top five in 2023, or have been in consideration at 1-1 last year, for example. There is quite a bit of depth further down the list, however, especially in high school shortstops, college outfielders, and left-handed pitching at both levels. It’s a good year to go under slot with your first pick and spread some money around, and a good year to have an extra pick or two. I expect a lot of rumors of deals up top before we get to the draft, and then for most teams to flee to the safety of college players when they actually have to put something on the table. Call it cynical if you wish; I call it the wisdom of experience.”

    I would prefer that the Nats “flee to the safety of college players.”

    He has Holliday/Doyle/Arnold/Arquette/Marek Houston

    On Doyle: “The only knocks on Doyle seem to be the lack of track record prior to this year and the fact that the delivery is unorthodox, although he repeats the heck out of it and I don’t see a big red flag beyond the fact that he throws really hard. If his command and control holds up against better competition, he could be a No. 2 starter, and I wouldn’t hesitate to start him at least in Double A.”

    He’s very much the low man on Hernandez, having him way down at #21.

    KW

    22 May 25 at 4:41 pm

  17. We also shouldn’t forget the strong possibility that the Nats will be under-slot bargaining with multiple players, all the more when none of them are thought to be superstars. Perhaps they offer $8.5M to Doyle, Arquette, and Arnold and see who says “yes” the fastest.

    That’s another knock against Holliday: as a high schooler who has to be “bought out,” he’s going to want more. Is he worth $1.5-2.0M more than the other three?

    KW

    22 May 25 at 4:50 pm

  18. From Law’s chat today:

    Q: Do you see a world where a clear 1-1 separates themselves from the pack this season, or do you feel it’s a “what you see is what you get” situation for the Nationals?

    A: We’re way too late for that. Larry Bird’s not walking through that door.

    Q: Which players that could be drafted overslot later fit the Nationals MO?

    A: Tons. Look at high school players beyond the top ~30 or so on my list, just because I expect those guys above that to be gone.

    Q: You mentioned this would be a good draft for signing someone below slot, and using the money later. Do you see Rizzo doing that at 1/1, or just taking whoever he thinks is the best player- and paying full slot value?

    A: I bet they try to do both – take whoever they think is the best player but negotiate him down to something like $9 million or less. (Slot is $11 million.) I can’t imagine they pay full slot at 1 … has anyone done that in the current system? You’d be nuts to do that unless it’s Bryce Harper 2.0.

    Q: Seth Hernandez: do you remember a time when you saw such a discrepancy between your rank on him (#21) and your mock draft projection (#6 in your last mock IIRC)? Other mock draft pundits (especially at BA) seriously think he could go 1-1.

    A: He could go 1-1, if the Nats want to ignore the history of high school pitching. I rank high school pitchers lower to reflect the base rate of that category. Anyone looking at Hernandez and claiming he’s the exception is fooling themselves. Andrew Painter was the top HS arm in 2021. He blew out, and while he’s going to debut this year, I saw him last night and it’s not happening tomorrow. (I mean, they could call him up, but the guy I saw last night wasn’t ready.) I had Noble Meyer ranked around 26th in his draft class and he went 10th. I believe I had Carson Williams around 99th in his draft class and he went in the first round. So to answer your question, the discrepancy on Hernandez isn’t unusual, and reflects the evidence at hand on the track record of the best HS pitchers in any draft class.

    Q: Generally speaking, how much does a team’s current farm system affect who they will and won’t draft in a given year? The Dodgers, for example, currently seem flush with A-level outfielders and other hitters, but less so on starting pitchers close to MLB. Would that prompt them to lean toward drafting a college pitcher who might be on the roster in two years? Are some teams more likely than others to draft for need? Does strategy shift from year to year based on that year’s talent pool? Are you more likely to draft for need if you’re picking lower in the first round or in the compensation-pool range?

    A: Zero. Good organizations do not draft for need, ever. About the only thing you might consider is proximity to the majors as a tiebreaker – if you’re considering a college prospect vs a HS one, and you’re contending now, that might tip the scales to the college guy. Otherwise you risk letting a better prospect get away because you pretended you knew what your MLB club was going to need 2-5 years down the line.

    Re Seaver King: “I don’t know who tinkered with King’s swing, but he’s not the same as he was last year.”

    KW

    22 May 25 at 8:50 pm

  19. two of those questions were from me. I asked the Seth Hernandez question and I asked another one confirming hte 75% bonus slot guarantee for combine attendees, which he confirmed. Lots of good Q’s in the chat this time for KLaw.

    Todd Boss

    23 May 25 at 8:54 am

  20. I find this draft particularly interest precisely because there isn’t much “conventional wisdom.” No one is proclaiming that anyone is a “sure thing.” We’re just crossing our fingers that we don’t end up with the next Mickey Moniak.

    I’m glad someone (you) asked Law about Hernandez. I thought he would respond with some detailed concerns about Hernandez’s game, but instead he fell back on the known risk of taking a HS pitcher. He did have one thing buried deep in his profile of Hernandez that really rang my red-flag bell, though: “The four-seamer is dead straight and hitters who can catch up to the velocity can square it up, even at the high school level.” Yikes.

    That said, if there’s ever a year to take the really high risk on a high school pitcher, it might be this one. I’m not lobbying for it, but I would understand the logic of it if it happened. It’s more worth the risk when you don’t think too highly of the other options.

    KW

    23 May 25 at 1:28 pm

  21. Big move today! Lile up.

    https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/05/nationals-promote-daylen-lile-outfield-prospect-jacob-young-injured-list-shoulder.html

    I hope he goes up and proves everything I’ve ever written about him is wrong.

    Todd Boss

    23 May 25 at 1:47 pm

  22. @kw: on Hernandez … it is interesting to see the dichotomy of opinions on him this spring. Law really down on him, BA guys super high on him. Like, picking 1-1 high. A movement-less FB that even HS kids are squaring up … thats bad. Nonetheless i don’t think he’s on our radar right now; it seems like its Holliday or Arnold at this point.

    Todd Boss

    23 May 25 at 1:49 pm

  23. Obviously this is casual empiricism, but my sense is that Law is *very* quick to claim that any particular starting pitching prospect will actually end up as a reliever (for various reasons). Given that, I find it interesting that he appears to be the most bullish on Doyle of all the prospect gurus.

    Derek

    23 May 25 at 1:53 pm

  24. Derek — That’s a good observation. I did notice that Law had tagged Arnold with “reliever risk,” but not Doyle. He’s definitely high man on Doyle, but he’s doing a good job of convincing me.

    Todd — Callis and Mayo have been hyping Hernandez as well. But I agree, nearly all the outlets are backing off Hernandez being at the very top of the draft.

    There are several wild-card issues at the top of the draft. One is under-slot deals, which may have A LOT to do that we don’t see with who goes to which team, including the Nats. Another is that the Angels, M’s, and Cards are likely to take a collegian. If the Nats don’t take Holliday, I would guess that he falls to the Rockies (#4) or Pirates (#6). Same potential landing spots for Hernandez. Now Anderson is getting top-5 mention, likely not ahead of Arnold, maybe ahead of Doyle.

    KW

    23 May 25 at 5:20 pm

  25. I was just looking at the Wilmington numbers. This is why I struggle with the concept of paying millions to teenagers:

    T.J. White .200/.270/.264/.534, 28.7% K
    Elijah Green .171/.271/.260/.532, 45.7% K
    Armando Cruz .193/.228/.273/.501, 29.8% K
    Brenner Cox .142/.214/.183/.397, 43.5% K

    Note that Cruz, who has only 8 homers in 317 career games, has the highest SLG.

    Admittedly, there are no sure things among collegians either.

    When the Nats released Sammy Infante, he had 315 Ks in 1109 PAs, a .225 BA, and only 26 homers. Green has a staggering 441 Ks in 1019 PAs, a .211 BA, and 23 homers. Just sayin’.

    KW

    25 May 25 at 8:39 am

  26. Law does not like odd mechanics on prospect pitchers, no. But, he also freely admits that sometimes it works out (Chris Sale). Who has better/worse mechanics? Doyle or Arnold? Judge for yourself:

    – Doyle video: https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=2730861337114120 . A ton of video from CF camera: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Rr6_LYRMNA
    – Doyle video with side view and slomo: https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/why-liam-doyle-is-the-most-puzzling-pitcher-in-the-2025-mlb-draft/

    Doyle’s mechanics are more “violent” than Arnolds, with a max-effort delivery, a head thwack and an off-balance falling-to-third finish that has scouts scared to death. But at the same time, his arm is not trailing as bad and has more of a conventional 3/4 delivery.

    – Arnold video: behind plate only: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tjjbmRlHQBY .
    – Arnold combo/side view with slomo: https://www.mlb.com/video/2025-draft-jamie-arnold-lhp

    Arnold’s arm really trails his foot landing, which concerns me. That usually indicates overt stress on the shoulder and eventual problems. He’s more sidearm, which makes it harder for him to have pitches that work “away” from RHP. Plus side; sidearm is an easier on the arm slot.

    Between these two , if your GM job depended on it, who would you take?

    Todd Boss

    25 May 25 at 9:10 am

  27. If I genuinely felt my job was riding on it, I would pick . . . Arquette. LOL, this draft is such a crap shoot, even more so than a “normal draft.” Doyle and Arnold have both sucked in their last two outings. Are they hitting a wall, or feeling the pressure?

    Doyle’s “violent” follow through kinda reminds me of Scherzer, or some max-effort relievers like the DC Strangler.

    Between Doyle and Arnold, I’d say that Doyle has the higher ceiling but that Arnold is the safer bet. Pick your poison.

    KW

    25 May 25 at 1:03 pm

  28. Just returning to a point Law made earlier on Seaver King “I don’t know who tinkered with King’s swing, but he’s not the same as he was last year.”

    This stood out to me as highly concerning. I vividly remember an interview from Hassell when he was still with the Padres talking about tinkering with his swing, when he was rocketing up top prospect lists, which struck me as odd. Why tinker with something that’s working?

    I wonder what’s also caused King to mess with his swing? Whatever he was doing got him drafted #10 overall. If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.

    Is this Nats coaches? Is King, like Hassell, a tinkerer? Did he get bad advice?

    There’s been a number of false dawns this season, where it looked like King has broken out, including potentially yesterday where he went 4 for 10 in a doubleheader. But ultimately in May he’s batting only .250/.286/.333 which is almost identical to his season line of .241/.293/.345. There’s no power and few walks. The silver lining is, compared to April, he’s cut down on the strikeouts, and is making fewer mistakes on D. But it’s interesting to hear Law’s first hand account. It’s not much to go on, and I’d like to hear a more detailed scouting report, because something is clearly wrong with King.

    We can’t afford to miss on another 1st rounder, especially when King was a reach.

    Will

    25 May 25 at 4:30 pm

  29. Sykora with 4IP, 1H, 0R, 1BB, and 9ks in his A+ debut.

    Prediction 1: he will make fewer than 10 starts in Wilmington.

    Prediction 2: we’ve heard some people say Susana would be a strong 1/1 candidate if he was a college junior right now. People will be saying the same thing about Sykora come draft day.

    Derek

    26 May 25 at 10:24 am

  30. Will posted raves about Sykora at Nats Prospects. I hope that he stays at Wilmington long enough for Law to get a good look at him.

    As I recall, the guru knock on Sykora has been that he doesn’t have super-high velo, but that doesn’t really matter if his stuff moves in a way that guys can’t hit it. (For the reverse, see Law’s reference above about high schoolers squaring up Hernandez’s straight-line high-90s stuff.) The other great thing about Sykora is that he has three legit pitches already. There doesn’t have to be projection about him adding pitches.

    Relative to the draft discussion, I’d much rather the Nats cost-save on a collegian in the first round and spend on guys in the second or third like Sykora or Dickerson.

    KW

    26 May 25 at 11:33 am

  31. Absolute destruction of the Washington Nationals today by Rosenthal in the Athletic.

    https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6384096/2025/05/27/washington-nationals-rebuild/

    “since 2013, the Nationals have drafted and developed only three players with career bWARs above 5.0. Those three — Nick Pivetta, Erick Fedde, Jesús Luzardo — made their marks with other teams.”

    “Since winning the 2019 World Series, the Nationals rank third in the majors in losses, one behind the Pirates, 14 behind the Rockies. At 24-29 this season, they’re on pace to avoid their fifth-straight 90-loss campaign — barely.”

    TL/DR: Rizzo, who is now the 2nd longest tenured BaseballOperations director in the sport (behind Cashman/Yankees), basically is now in year 5 of a reboot/rebuild that is being propped up by the Soto trade return, some of wh om who are quickly approaching FA.

    Todd Boss

    27 May 25 at 1:43 pm

  32. There are rarely consensus opinions about any mock draft, but there’s unanimous agreement that the 2025 draft lacks a clear standout #1 overall.

    Curious to know how weak the very top of the draft is as compared to other drafts.

    So, here’s the question:

    The top 9 in the 2024 MLB draft was:

    1. Travis Bazzana
    2. Chase Burns
    3. Charlie Condon
    4. Nick Kurtz
    5. Hagen Smith
    6. Jac Caglianone
    7. JJ Wetherholt
    8. Christian Moore
    9. Konnor Griffin (the first HS player)

    If those 9 players were available for the 2025 draft how many would be taken #1 overall in this draft?

    Kurtz is the only one of the first 9 to MLB debut already (#14 Cam Smith is the other first round pick to reach MLB). Except for Condon and the HS player (Griffin), the rest of that group has already reached at least AA, and they all have been productive. Aslo, Griffin has crushed it in A ball.

    Feel like this is a good gauge to determine the strength or lack of strength of this draft.

    Pilchard

    27 May 25 at 2:34 pm

  33. Pilchard — I would take any of the top 7 from 2024 as the 1/1 in 2025. And none of those 7 likely would have gone in the top 5 of 2023.

    The money line from Rosenthal’s column: “Good teams both spend and develop. The Nationals do neither.” Todd, if you’ve got time, breaking out the key points from that column might make a good post. I’ve had a sinking feeling for a while that the Nats’ “rebuild” is just treading water at best.

    KLaw also hits hard: “College baseball coaches must be stopped from abusing pitchers’ arms: Law”

    https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6380136/2025/05/26/college-baseball-pitcher-usage-abuse/

    Admittedly, this is sort of like discovering that there’s gambling in Rick’s Cafe in Casablanca, but it’s still good to have someone with a widely read pulpit call out this terrible practice in no uncertain terms.

    KW

    27 May 25 at 6:38 pm

  34. And pick #8, Christian Moore, was widely considered a reach, because the Angels love their quick risers. On that facet, it’s hard to criticize, because Moore currently has a 1.204 OPS in AAA…

    The “consensus” top 8 player that fell was Braden Montgomery, whose leg injury scared teams away. But it’s looking foolish as Montgomery, who dropped to 12th, has a .922 OPS in A+ at the moment.

    It seems to me that Ethan Holliday compares very similarly in profile to Konnor Griffin and Bryce Rainer, who rounded out the “consensus” top 10 and went 9 and 11. Both Rainer and Griffin are performing very well in A ball, which is probably the best you could expect from Holliday at this point next year.

    On Rosenthal’s column, there’s nothing new here that we, who’ve been paying attention, haven’t already commented on before. Rosenthal, though, definitely falls on my side of the optimism spectrum compared to others here.

    With that said, I don’t think we’re as far from competing as Rosenthal is making it out to be. We MUST indeed start spending. There isn’t enough talent in the farm to by itself make us WS contenders (or even playoff contenders for that matter), but we don’t have to turn into the Dodgers, or even the Phillies, to get out of the hole we’re in.

    Just going from Trevor Williams’ 6+ ERA to Max Fried, and Josh Bell’s .150 AVG to Pete Alonso, and Poche/Sims’ 12+ ERA to David Robertson and Carlos Estevez this offseason would’ve made this team enticingly close to competitive, and it would’ve only added about $50m to our payroll, putting us under $170m and in the bottom half of the league payrolls.

    Another $50m in additions next offseason would put us firmly into playoff contention and a total payroll around $200m (right on the fringes of the top 10, but still at least $100m off of the likes of the Dodgers, Yankees, Mets, Phillies.

    It’s not that complicated. But it would take astute free agent signings, something Rizzo seems to have uniformly whiffed on this winter (not a great sign). So in my alternate alternate universe where the Lerners do open their pocketbooks, he’s dumping that money into Snell instead of Fried. Walker instead of Alonso. And Devin Williams and Kenley Jansen instead of other relievers.

    But Rizzo also needs to get active in extending these guys. It’s crazy that of all the young players we have, the only one we’ve extended is Keibert Ruiz, which also suggests some bad decision making processes.

    Will

    28 May 25 at 7:37 am

  35. The Lerners have been acting for years like a team that was looking to sell. Keep Payroll low, which makes the P&L look super enticing. “Look; we made $100M last year!” Oh, but you’re also not spending that $100M on payroll to be competitive.

    The two “triggers” for the previous run were Jayson Werth 7yr/$126M 2010 contract and Gio Gonzalaz 2011 trade (giving up Milone, Peacock, Norris, Cole). Ironically, thanks to some ill-timed injuries, suddenly guys like Hassell and Lile are getting MLB at-bats when otherwise they’d be blocked in AAA … this is exactly what the team needs in order to turn those guys (or turn the injured guys Crews & Young) into a trade asset. It’s “easy” to spend money, but you need to identify where you’re going to spend that money. Right now it seems like the team has committed most of its batting spots to prospects/youngsters: House at 3B, Abrams at SS, Garcia at 2B, Ruiz at C, Crews/Young/Wood in the OF. Not too many spots left for a big FA slugger unless you cut the cord on someone. Garcia was excellent at the plate last year, struggling this year. Ruiz the opposite, and he’s got a $50M guarantee. We’ve papered over 1B, 3B and DH with 1yrFAs who have mostly struggled this year (Bell in particular) … but if you buy a $150M 2B or 3B you’re forcing the team’s hand with House and Garcia. MLB teams aren’t stupid; if we go to them after signing a long-term FA with the prospect we just replaced and say, “give us full value” they’d laugh.

    I think the real damning things in the article are pointing directly at Rizzo. Zero impact players in the draft in a decade, multiple 1st rounders blown. His trades have been great, but his FA signings have been hit and miss. Finally after years we’re starting to gradually see some player development (fielders Crews, Young, Garcia , Starters Irvin, Parker Lord) but even there we see the wasted top-end picks: Rutledge and Henry were 1st and 2nd rounders respectively, guys who should be in the rotation and not Soroka and Williams … but they’re not. Tehy’re relievers. Along side a 17IFA Ferrer and a 20NDFA Brzycky. Those are the misses we have made time and again, which are now coming to roost.

    Imagine if we didn’t have the Scherzer/Turner and Soto Hauls: there would be no Ruiz, Grey, Gore, Abrams, Wood, Hassell, or Susana. I mean… that’s a massive portion of our current MLB roster.

    Todd Boss

    28 May 25 at 9:28 am

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