We’re through the super regionals, and have a CWS field. Here’s a recap of the supers.
Resource links to help with this:
- Top 25 rankings d1baseball, baseballamerica, and usatoday Coaches poll.
- WarrenNolan’s RPI rankings
- Here’s D1Baseball.com’s Tournament Central, my favorite place to track the tourney.
- Here’s the NCAA.com field of 64 Bracket with some great data points at NCAA.com and an easier-to-read bracket.
First, lets recap the Supers.
- Louisville vs Miami: Louisville dominated visiting Miami (note: I thought Miami would get the host) 8-1 in a game where all the scoring happened in the first few innings. Miami took back game two to force the tie-breaker game Sunday. In game three, Louisville clawed back to take a close 3-2 win and advance.
- #8 Oregon State v #9 Florida State: FSU let one get away in game one, giving up 3 runs in the ninth to send the game to extras, then watching an RBI single allow OSU to walk them off. Brutal. FSU turned around to win game 2 and force the decider. In the final, both teams ran out of pitching and played to an old-school pre-BBCOR aluminum game score of 14-10 as OSU advances.
- #5 UNC v Arizona: UNC Destroyed AZ in game one 18-2. AZ fought back to win game two in a slugfest to force the 3rd game. In the final, Arizona shocked the national seed and top ranked UNC with three runs in the 8th inning to steal a 4-3 win and to claim the CWS spot.
- #4 Auburn v #13 Coastal Carolina: Coastal Carolina shocked Auburn in game one, edging them with a run in the 10th to win in extras. They followed it up with a 4-1 game two win to be the first team to punch their ticket to the CWS and to prove naysayers wrong.
- #3 Arkansas v #14 Tennessee; Arkansas got a close game 1 win 4-3, got to Doyle easily in game two and cruise into the CWS.
- #6 LSU v West Virginia: LSU battered their way to a game 1 win 16-9 and was never troubled in game two to advance easily.
- Duke v Murray State: Host Duke opened with a win, taming Murray State’s bats 7-4. Murray State got back to bashing in game two, winning 19-9 and force a Monday finish. There, Murray State persevered, even with a crazy overturned call at the end that forced them to win twice, to advance as a #4 seed, a rarity in the college game.
- UT-San Antonio v #15 UCLA: UCLA won 5-2 in the first, then blanked UTSA in the second to move on.
Super Regional Predictions versus Actuals
- predicted Miami, FSU, UNC, Auburn, Arkansas, LSU, Murray State, UTSA
- actuals: Louisville, OSU, Arizona, CCU, Arkansas, LSU, Murray State, UCLA
My predictions were awful: I went just 3 for 8 after going 8-for-8 last year in the supers.
Stats/Observations of the 8 Super Regionals.
- 5 out of 8 Super Regional Hosts to advance.
- 4 regionals went to the 3rd/deciding game.
- Conference Breakdown of the eight Advancers: 2 SEC, 1 ACC, 1 Big10, 1 Big12, 1 Independent, 1 Sun Belt, and 1 MVC. wow. What great distribution. If we were playing by the old rules … there’d be three Pac12 teams here.
- Murray State to the CWS as a #4 regional seed is super rare: it’s only happened three other times since the CWS expanded to 64 teams in 1999. Fresno State (2008, who frigging won the CWS), Stony Brook (2012), and most recently, Oral Roberts (2023).
So, your 2024 CWS Field (with original national seeds driving the teams):
- Group 1 (1,4,5,8): Louisville, Coastal Carolina, Arizona, #8 Oregon State
- Group 2 (2,3,6,7): #15 UCLA, #3 Arkansas, #6 LSU, Murray State
So, we have a pretty lopsided CWS field. Group 1 features just one national seed in OSU, while group two features three National seeds plus the crazy Cinderella Murray State.
RPIs of the CWS field: Here’s the Live/updated RPI of the field, plus the pre-CWS tournament RPI for those teams who were seeds.
- Arkansas: #1 (started #5)
- Coastal Carolina #3 (Started #8)
- Oregon State: #5 (started #7)
- UCLA #9 (started #15)
- LSU #11 (started #10)
- Arizona #19
- Louisville #29
- Murray State: #53
CCU was pretty underseeded going into the tourney and probably should have been a top 8 seed, and now they’re vindicated with a live RPI of #3, making them the favorite in the group 1.
Performance of 1st Round projected players in the Super Regionals:
I’ll summarize the performance of the few 1-1 candidates we care about in my “check-in” post coming soon.
My CWS Predictions
Top half: I think it comes down to Coastal versus Oregon State, with Oregon State heading to final.
Bottom Half: Hard not to go with an all SEC final here, with things setup for the SEC teams to be on opposite sides of the group. LSU beat Arkansas at home in a series in early May, but on a neutral field I sense Arkansas bashes their way forward. LSU only has one Kade Anderson.
Final: Arkansas over OSU
— This is a super wide-open CWS. A lot of the favorites are gone, and several of the squads have real momentum. Coastal Carolina is riding a 23-game winning streak.
— There have been several football scores in the regionals and supers. Pitching will be at a premium, particularly two or three games into the CWS for each team, after they’ve burned their top guys.
— The SEC has really dominated this tournament for the last few years, so it having only two schools advance is surprising.
— That said, Arkansas is my favorite it win it all. It’s kind of a backdoor Cinderella story, as the Hogs have been to the CWS 12 times but have never won a title.
— Speaking of the Hogs, I’m not sure why Wehiwa Aloy isn’t higher on more draft boards. He’s a true SS with 20 homers and 18 doubles. I’d pick him 50 times out of 50 over the no-power Willits. McDaniel: “Aloy has a chance to be a starting big league shortstop with plus power and that upside is rare, especially from the college ranks.” It’s not too late for a player like this to make a big move up boards, as Christian Moore did in the CWS last year.
— The two 1/1 prospects still remaining are Arquette of Oregon State and Kade Anderson of LSU. We’ll see what they can do on the big stage.
KW
10 Jun 25 at 11:05 am
I forgot to lookup the RPIs of the 8 teams: i’m adding that to the post now but repeating here:
Arkansas: #1
Coastal Carolina #3
Oregon State: #5
UCLA #9
LSU #11
Arizona #19
Louisville #29
Murray State: #53
Now, these are live RPI rankings with CWS regional and super regional results; Coastal wasn’t #3 heading into the tourney. But they were still #8 RPI before winning out. I still think its Arkansas and OSU in the final but CCU-OSU could be fun.
Todd Boss
10 Jun 25 at 11:55 am
Not related to Todd’s post, but Fangraphs has an interesting deep dive on Brady House out today: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/brady-house-is-hoping-to-be-a-building-block-in-washington/
Derek
10 Jun 25 at 1:29 pm
@ Derek — That’s a great piece on House. Thanks for sharing. He seems to understand the areas where he needs work and doesn’t seem to be in a rush. It has good intel on him lowering his hands.
KW
10 Jun 25 at 1:47 pm
KW—I agree. His attitude is encouraging (as is his year-over-year improvement in AAA). I’d feel a lot better about him if his BB% was 5 points higher, though.
Derek
10 Jun 25 at 3:35 pm
I was hoping EL would pin an updated grade on him. Preseason, he dropped House to (presumably) a FV45, but this year House’s AAA walk rate more than doubled, his ISO nearly doubled and his strikeout rate fell 3 percentage points. I’ve been wondering if that was enough to get him back to a FV50 in FG’s eyes.
SMS
10 Jun 25 at 5:54 pm
It’s a big day for prospect info, as Law finally saw Sykora:
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6414371/2025/06/10/travis-sykora-carson-benge-scouting-mets-nationals/
It’s kind of funny because he dissects things but really doesn’t pass judgment. It sure seems that he’s better than Arnold/Anderson/Doyle, and a year younger. Law always has seemed skeptical of Sykora, though.
Law also comments on Sam Peterson, basically saying that his ceiling likely is fourth OF. Frankly, if an 8th rounder makes the majors in any capacity, it’s cause for celebration.
KW
10 Jun 25 at 7:29 pm
Thanks for the links!
I think that reads like a pretty glowing review from Law. I see 1 plus pitch (splitter), 1 above average (slider) and uncommented “breaking ball” that he had (surprisingly) good command of. Like Parker, his funky delivery makes his pitches play up. So while 95-97 is merely “good” in this era, his velocity numbers don’t tell the whole story.
The biggest criticism of Sykora here is entirely solveable: his stamina. Sykora faded a bit in his 2nd time through the line up. But we knew that already with his pitch counts always being limited to around 70 his whole his career to date.
I’m also super high on Petersen. He strikes me as a “high floor” kind of guy that we seem to have a dearth of in this org (with basic plate discipline being such a common struggle among so many of our prospects, we’ve have a huge number of extremely low-floor types): the Jacob Young (until he turned into a Gold Glove CF), Andrew Pinckney type (relatively polished college prospects lacking upside at specific tools like power or CF defense). It looked like Lile was headed down this path, until he really upped his game last season.
I don’t expect Petersen to be an All Star, but he certainly looks like he has a pretty well rounded skillset to contribute in DC sooner than later. And we need a lot more of these guys who can competently fill in and eat innings. In the recent past, we’ve given this playing time to guys like Eddie Rosario, Corey Dickerson and Dee Gordon, who were both bad defenders and hitters.
On House, it’s a great interview, and interesting to hear from him directly a reflection on his weaknesses. It actually lines up perfectly with an interview Eddie Longosz did a couple days ago (watch here: https://www.mlb.com/nationals/video/eddie-longosz-on-the-progress-of-nats-top-prospects – apologies if this was posted already) Longosz said about him cutting down on chasing. Seems there’s been some discussions about this.
The rest of the interview is well worth a listen. Longosz talks briefly about Morales (happy with him quickly picking up 1B), his power quietly developing.
Interestingly, he talked about how hitting 100 for Sykora was a goal of his. And how Sykora’s 3 pitch mix (names the breaking ball Law referred to as a “split change”) and deceptive delivery are big skills of his, and how he’ll go 5 innings a couple more times, then stretched out to more innings. Also said he’ll get sent to Harrisburg soon!
He also talks about King. Doesn’t say much just that they’re happy he’s facing better competition and heating up in Harrisburg now.
Then talks about Dickerson, but just says mostly empty platitudes about swinging well and being a leader.
Then cites Trey Lipscomb and Yoel Tejeda as two underrated prospects in the system.
Will
11 Jun 25 at 6:18 am
I read Law’s piece as him “coming around” on Sykora. It’s clear he doesn’t like the delivery, but it’s also clear he likes the pitches and the results. Law in the past has referenced Chris Sale when making the point that guys can be successful starting pitchers with funky deliveries he doesn’t like.
Derek
11 Jun 25 at 9:40 am
I read Law’s piece the same: I think he liked what he saw, had his typical concerns about mechanics and repeatability of his actions. I’m glad KLaw got to see him now, b/c I sense he’s not going to be in Wilmington much longer.
Todd Boss
11 Jun 25 at 12:24 pm
Sykora pitched all of last year from the stretch. only now does it appear that was in deference to his hip. I wish he would go back to that approach, it was good enough for Stras.
FredMD
11 Jun 25 at 3:55 pm
Speaking of Sykora and working from the stretch, something to keep an eye on is his ability to limit stolen bases. This season, he’s allowed 5 SB. That doesn’t sound like a lot, but it is when you consider he’s only allowed a grand total of 12 base runners this season!
I’m not too worried, as it’s much more important he focus on mechanics rather than base runners, but it’s something to watch, and see if the SB attempts remain (relatively) very high.
Will
11 Jun 25 at 4:28 pm
Pitching exclusively from the stretch worked incredibly well for Stras. I don’t recall ever seeing it spelled out who convinced him to try that approach, but there was speculation that it was Menhart (whose departure from the organization I still lament).
KW
11 Jun 25 at 6:50 pm
CWS: It’s both brutal and curious to see that the top two remaining seeds in the tournament, #3 Arkansas and #6 LSU, have to play each other in their first CWS game. That seems about as bizarre as some of the early college football playoff matchups. Perhaps they should re-seed for Omaha?
KW
11 Jun 25 at 10:02 pm