Here’s Part 2 of My end of 2025 look at our system; the prospects ranked 61-125. Thanks for the feedback on the first 60 (Part 1 was here) … I’ve highlighted a few players that I may have too low (Glasser,Bazzell, Vaquero) and/or too high (Schnell, Lao) and that’ll help make this list next spring a lot tighter.
So here’s part 2: the guys ranked 61st to 125th. Yes I realize ranking prospects outside a certain threshold (top 50?) becomes kind of ridiculous. Certainly you’re splitting hairs as to whether a 23yr old hitting .210 in Low-A is even a “prospect” or not. But, with just 160 or so players in the whole domestic system, you’re getting dangerously close to attempting to just rank every single player we have under contract. Maybe I’ll get there at some point, but for now, I’ve gone from ranking 100 or so in March to 125 now, basically by just pushing down everyone who had a ranking earlier this year who got “layered” by one of the 15-20 or so guys we drafted or acquired in June and July. It probably wouldn’t be too much of a stretch to literally add all the AAA org guys, all the bullpen arms in A-ball, and the DSL guys to the bottom of this list and have a completely comprehensive ranking of every minor leaguer.
That being said, I’m super curious to hear from those who might think I’m way off on some of these 60+ guys and why. And, am I completely missing someone at this point? Still possible; there’s probably a couple of DSL guys or FCL players who had better than I noticed numbers who should be here. Looking forward to a crowd-sourced improvement on this data.
Key links guiding this:
- Big Board: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/186nm-v5F-zTCoR2Be7TFYM3e2cZ-gYi2WVqJLEkHdmc/edit?hl=en&gid=1488309175#gid=1488309175
- Draft Tracker: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Qd5DS9GlmkQOEh_zGhOvlhHK0EegqY1uJB4mLGmRBaY/edit?gid=0#gid=0
- IFA Tracker: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ksPorXhEHhtkNAGqxrJWqUFkvioMgoWhBU50uaZstc8/edit?usp=sharing
- This full ranking in a Google Sheet online: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Xs9fmb-dctE90hTS3bdozznETS-Oc3GsMuGzRo2faUc/edit?usp=sharing
OK here we go. We’ll go groupings of 10 players at a time:
61 (nr) Murphy Stehly 3B
62 (nr) Garrett Davila RHP (Reliever)
63 (nr) Jake Eder LHP (Starter)
64 (101) Branden Boissiere OF (Corner)
65 (25) Kevin Made SS
66 (41) Marquis Grissom RHP (Reliever)
67 (46) Brayan Romero RHP (Starter)
68 (94) Elijah Nunez OF (CF)
69 (48) Tyler Schoff RHP (Reliever)
70 (nr) Enmanuel Carela RHP (Starter)
Discussion: I threw some more relievers in here; Davila is a 28yr old AAA reliever MLFA who probably “shouldn’t” be a “prospect” but who had good enough numbers this year to possibly warrant a late season call-up. I wonder if he re-ups with the team for2026. Marquis Grissom slots in here, having a bit of tarnish on his previous rank despite getting to AAA. Lastly Schoff is here despite previously better rankings on account of having season-ending back muscle surgery in May.
We’ve also got some interesting starters in this group; We got Eder in the same deal as the aforementioned Sam Brown; he’s on the 40-man and has been a starter his whole career; not great career minor league numbers but as a lefty he seems like a future reliever. Romero spent nearly the whole season in the Low-A rotation with middling numbers. Carela was a mid-season rotation replacement in the DSL and had a 2.01 ERA for the season across 12 appearances and a slew of starts; he’s a 2025 IFA for the minimum bonus amount, the kind of “found gold” guy who would be amazing if he developed into anything of use.
There’s four positional players in here: Kevin Made takes a huge tumble from being a top-30 guy to this mid 60-s range: guy just can’t hit. Stehly meanwhile gets plopped into the rankings despite being a 2022 10th round senior sign, a 5th year senior out of Texas who nobody thought would go anywhere. Instead, he was the starting 3B in AA this year, with an OPS north of .900 and moving a top-10 prospect Wallace to 2B before getting a season-ending injury. Bravo; he’s the kind of prospect you root for. Lastly we have Boissiere, who was one step from a release in spring training but instead found some power this year and slugged his way to be the starting 1B in Harrisburg, holding a .810 OPS there. Lastly there’s Nunez, who didn’t necessarily merit a move to High-A but who hit decently once he got there: .808 OPS with speed and the ability to play center. He may still be too high, but once you get to the 60s it’s splitting hairs.
71 (nr) Darrel Lunar RHP (Starter)
72 (nr) Adam Bloebaum RHP (Reliever)
73 (nr) Erick Mejia RHP (Reliever)
74 (61) Schultz Thomas RHP (Reliever)
75 (100) Gabriel Agostini LHP (Reliever)
76 (nr) Travis Sthele RHP (Starter)
77 (nr) Alexander Meckley RHP (Starter)
78 (89) Liam Sullivan LHP (Starter)
79 (nr) Austin Amaral RHP (Reliever)
80 (nr) Merritt Beeker LHP (Reliever)
Here’s the section where I threw in a bunch of relievers with solid numbers. Bloebaum was an Indy league signing last May; he had a 0.67 ERA this season; you read that right. He gave up just 2 earned runs in 27 IP across low and high-A, and one of them was on a solo HR he gave up in his last appearance in June before hitting the season-ending DL trip. I can’t find any injury announcement, even on his twitter, but interestingly Bloebaum is a big Driveline pitching guy, which I didn’t necessarily know before. Is a 30yr old converted infielder a “prospect?” If you can answer that, then you have Erick Mejia here. He got a ton of work this year, and moved all the way up to AAA but is a MLFA this off-season unless he re-ups with teh team. Schultz was a multi-role guy for Harrisburg all year with solid numbers, getting several “opening” starts while the AA rotation was in flux mid season. Agostini has made it back from a major arm issue last year and is here based on potential he showed in 2022 as a starter. Amaral had sneaky good numbers for a 2023 16th rounder in AA all year and could be a big find for the team. Beeker absolutely dominated Low-A this year, to the point where I have little understanding why he wasn’t promoted up; 1.85 ERA and 78 Ks in 63 relief innings.
This also seemed like a great area to put some of our remaining full-season rotation guys, namely Sthele, Meckley, and Sullivan. Sthele has become something of a punchline at Luke’s site; he just keeps on throwing. Two straight seasons where he’s been in the rotation the entire season despite middling ERA and ancillary numbers. You know who else that sounds like? Riley Cornelio. Meckley was a relatively unheralded starter picked up in the 12th round of the 2024 draft out of Coastal Carolina; he was a mainstay in the High-A rotation all year alongside Sthele. Lastly we have Sullivan, who was dominant in Low-A but was too old for the level, being on the comeback trail from injury. I like Sullivan’s chances the best of these three going forward.
Lunar is one of just three 2024 IFAs to make it stateside so far (along with previously mentioned Feliz and backup outfielder Tavarez); he pitched in the rotation for the FCL the entire season with middling results, but is mentioned here basically because he’s here ahead of the rest of his IFA class. If you wanted to argue he should be lower, i’d probably not argue.
81 (nr) Bryan Polanco RHP (Starter)
82 (49) Carlos Tavares 1B/OF (Corner)
83 (nr) Greyson Gimenez RHP (Reliever)
84 (nr) Victor Farias RHP (Starter)
85 (57) Kyle Luckham RHP (Starter)
86 (83) Michael Cuevas RHP (Starter)
87 (51) Brenner Cox OF (CF)
88 (nr) Luke Johnson RHP (Starter)
89 (56) Chase Solesky RHP (Starter)
90 (nr) Erik Tolman LHP (Starter)
Here’s another section where we threw a bunch of starters in with various levels of success this year. Polanco somehow survived an entire year in the Low-A rotation despite turning 24 at the end of the season. Farias spent time in the FCL rotation and was moved up to be a Long Reliever in Low-A. Luckham probably has shown himself to be a AA-ceiling starter, now having two straight years of solid AA numbers but getting hit hard when moved to AAA. He doesn’t have the K/9 right now to be an effective reliever either, so I’m not sure what to do with him. Luke Johnson had great numbers as a way-too-old FCL and Low-A starter, as a 2024 senior sign for almost no money; hopefully he gets a shot in Wilmington next year. Solesky drops down after an excellent 2024 that even saw him sent to the AFL; in 2025 he was a starter for the entire year in AAA with a 5.00 ERA and perhaps has hit a plateau in terms of his progression. Tolman looked great coming off the loss of the entire 2024 season to injury, dominating High-A .. as she should have as someone who turned 26 this year. He needs more AA time to see if he’s a player we use going forward at the higher levels. He is lefty, which goes to his benefit, and perhaps his 2025 should have him slightly higher, but he’s in this range b/c he did it against kids 3-4 years younger.
Greyson Gimenez had fantastic numbers in the DSL … as a 21yr old. So, he needs to come stateside in 2026 to see if this was for real. Cuevas finally was taken out of the rotation this year and was a decent AA setup guy; can he do more?
We have a couple of outfielders in here on different trajectories: Brenner Cox was socially promoted to High-A, couldn’t hit there, went back to Low-A, still couldn’t hit, and ended the year with a .156 BA across the two levels. That’s not good. Luckily for Cox he got a massive bonus so he’ll get more time to work things out. Tavares hit really well in FCL last year; not so much this year in Low-A, hitting just .153. He signed for almost nothing as a 2023 IFA, so he’s in jeopardy already of an off-season release.
91 (76) Jeremy De La Rosa OF (Corner)
92 (105) Holden Powell RHP (Reliever)
93 (58) Angel Roman LHP (Reliever)
94 (106) Jackson Cluff SS
95 (62) T.J. White OF (Corner)
96 (50) Max Romero Jr. C
97 (nr) Chance Huff RHP (Reliever)
98 (103) Juan Obispo OF (CF)
99 (63) Marcus Brown SS/2B
100 (66) Rony Bello 2B/3B
We’ve finally moved past arms, and now have a slew of positional players in this range. Lets talk about them, because they include a bunch of names who used to be higher.
De La Rosa has slowly fallen off, and further down, prospect lists; he was as high as #13 on Fangraphs list in mid 2024, believe it or not. After another middling season at the plate (hitting .200 in High-A), he’s now basically a non prospect. Cluff improved his slash line this year as a fill-in AAA shortstop, but is now 28, was drafted in 2019, and may be hitting MLFA. White repeated High-A for the third successive year, losing some of the power he found last year but not really improving on his .650 OPS. Romero is the classic “hanging around catcher who can barely hit but keeps moving up the ranks because every team needs a twice-a-week backup to their actual catching prospect” guy, spending this year in AA. Obispo is a $600k IFA signing in Jan 2023 who repeated the DSL for the third time this year with marked improvement. Which is good … and bad. Why did it take him 3 turns in the DR? Marcus Brown looks like Troy Tulowitzki … but hits like Troy’s 2nd cousin Bubba. I suppose he has a chance to be the next Jackson Cluff; a pure SS who can barely hit but who plays the dirt as needed. Bello got a decent chunk of bonus money in jan 2025 but was relegated to the bench in his first DSL season primarily by two guys we’ve already talked about in Marconi and Cortesia, but his investment guarantees more time.
I’ve got three arms in here: Angel Roman got 13 starts this year in low-A before mercifully getting sent to the bullpen. Unfortunately he was even worse as a reliever than he was as a starter. He’s only even listed on this page because he’s a Lefty, and may have a future as a lefty reliever. Speaking of relievers, Holden Powell solved AA this year and got a bit roughed up in AAA as a middle relief->setup guy. He’s here because he made it to AAA, even if that might be his ceiling. Lastly we have Chance Huff, who was used kind of like a utility knife in AA this year, getting a few spot starts along with longer relief. He held his own; not amazing, but enough that he might have some future.
101 (52) Manuel Cabrera 1B/3B
102 (78) Leuris Portorreal RHP (Starter)
103 (54) Nick Peoples OF (Corner)
104 (80) Mikey Tepper RHP (Starter)
105 (71) Dustin Saenz LHP (Starter)
106 (75) Seth Shuman RHP (Starter)
107 (79) Gavin Dugas 2B
108 (85) Brandon Pimentel 1B
109 (nr) Vasquez Samuel RHP (Reliever)
110 (93) Andy Acevedo OF (CF)
So, in the 100+ range, we’re mostly talking about guys who used to be more highly ranked who have fallen due to declining performance. Fittingly, 9 of the 10 guys in this section were ranked higher last year but struggled this year.
On the “Starter” front, Saenz was in and out of the AA rotation this year and had passable ERA, but his swing and miss is lacking, and a 26yr old undersized RHP reliever seems like the first one to go. Shuman posted a 6.24 ERA as a 27-yr old this year and seems like a release candidate. He was in and out of the AAA rotation, but between pending veteran MLFA signings and rising Arms from AA (like Bennett, Susana, Tolman) who need to get to AAA sooner than later, I’d imagine his spot is in serious jeopardy. Tepper made just 2 starts and hit the season-long DL: it may be unfair to drop him 20-something spots, but that’s life. Portorreal gets credit for being part of the 2023 IFA crew that’s made it state-side, pitching in the FCL all season, but with little success.
I threw Vasquez in here with his solid AA relief numbers, but recognizing that he’s a Rule5 pick who was left available for a reason; he may be considered a dime a dozen in terms of capabilities and ceiling.
Cabrera has been moved completely off the 2B/SS and played almost entirely 1B and 3B this season; a .592 OPS isn’t going to cut it like that. Dugas was already super old upon his drafting; now he’s a 25yr old finishing up a .181 season in High-A and may be done for. Pimentel hit just .194 this year and as a NDFA with almost no investment, he’s in danger of an imminent release. With all due respect to Peoples, he’s now finished his 3rd pro season and his career minor league BA is .192. Acevedo is basically here on the back of his $1.3M signing bonus in 2023; he hit just .188 in the FCL this year.
111 (86) Joe Naranjo 1B
112 (65) Luke Young RHP (Reliever)
113 (60) Jack Sinclair RHP (Reliever)
114 (107) J.T. Arruda 2B
115 (92) Viandel Pena 2B
116 (99) Johnathan Thomas OF (CF)
117 (82) Jared McKenzie OF (CF)
118 (81) Elian Soto 1B/OF (Corner)
119 (98) Carlos Batista OF (Corner)
120 (84) Leodarlyn Colon RHP (Reliever)
121 (64) Everett Cooper 2B/LF
122 (68) Lucas Knowles LHP (Reliever)
123 (90) Yoander Rivero 2B
124 (95) Matt Suggs C
125 (104) Nathan Ochoa Leyva OF (Corner)
Every one of the rest of these guys is here because I managed to put them in my top 100 list back in March. Some have fallen significantly. I can’t really see any of these guys being actual “prospects” anymore, but instead of deleting them off the list they’re in the 100+ section.
We’ll talk about them in groups.
Relievers: Young earned a promotion this year but was just kind of a meh RHP middle reliever in AA. Same with Sinclair; i suppose Young’s numbers were slightly better than Sinclair’s so perhaps they should be reversed. Colon was a starter in FCL last year but now is full time relief. Knowles seems like one of those lefty rubber armed multi-role types that every team needs in the minors; he’s 27, in AA, still hanging around.
Infielders: Naranjo was a super-young MLFA last year, having signed internationally at age 16. He’s a sub 6-foot 1B who slugged less than .300; i wonder if he signed for more than one year. Arruda is kind of like Cluff-lite, in AAA but with no real pathway to the majors. Pena ended the year in AAA for some reason; as a backup 2B in AA he hit .201 this year and is basically Arruda with 2 more years of control. Cooper hit just .140 this year repeating Low-A. Rivero got moved to 2B, where he backed up our better players in Low-A while hitting .201 and ending the year on the 60-day DL.
Backup Catchers: I guess I could have also included all our backup catchers here instead of just Suggs. Basically every one of these guys is in the same boat: Lindsley and Stubbs in AAA, Suggs and Farmer in AA, Colmenares in High-A, or Fagnant/Hollified in Low-A: generally speaking these guys have batting averages in the .180-.200 range, play once a week backing up the starter, and are there more for defensive skills than prospect status.
Outfielders: Thomas actually earned a promotion to AA this year, but his primary skill seems to be stealing bases, not actually getting on base. McKenzie took a big step back while repeating High-A, hitting just .167 there this year. Juan’s brother Soto hit just .139 playing 1B/LF combo. Batista wasn’t much better, hitting .140 in FCL this year. Both Soto and Batista were decent-money 2023 IFAs who are getting socially promoted based on their bonus as opposed to their talent, but that’s going to run out at some point. Lastly we have the 125th ranked Ochoa Leyva, who had just a .493 OPS this season as he covered 2B/LF for Low-A.
Phew. Hope you’ve enjoyed this. I’d say, “did I forget anyone” but … man when ranking 125 of the players in our system, we’re getting a massive percentage of the total rosters of all our domestic teams (147 active players plus another 18-20 on the 60-Day DL), not to mention the 30 or so guys we have in the DSL. Maybe in the future we’ll rank all the way to 200.
I’m coming to this late, and will have a couple of comments on the top half of the list, but I wanted to make a general comment here first.
I certainly appreciate the scale of this effort, Todd, and this was an interesting read, but I have a real hard time conceptualizing a rubric to evaluate these non-prospects.
The ordinal part of prospect rankings always feels a bit silly to me, but it can be a helpful frame. Questions like “who would you take, Willits or Sykora?” force you to make decisions about how to weigh youth vs tools vs a track record of success vs health etc. But, frankly, “who would you take, JDLR or Angel Roman?” just does not make any sense for me.
Maybe it would be better to sort it by player type (eg post-prospects, minimally heralded teenagers, old-for-the-level folks w/ not terrible results) instead of forcing them into a single ordered list.
I’ll also say that the only names on your part 2 that are in any way on my radar are Eder, Grissom and Made, but I have all three very very fringy and, at best, with one last shot to reclaim prospect status. (And I guess if Stehly comes back next year and keeps up a 150 wRC+ in the upper minors, he’d make it on to my “fringe prospect list” but at 2.5 years older than league average it takes more than a half season of gaudy results. I think his partially displacing Wallace says more about Wallace than about Stehly.)
SMS
29 Sep 25 at 3:07 pm
Not much to dispute here. There’s not much sense in arguing someone placed 120th should be 119th, for example. But a few players I’d have placed higher:
Liam Sullivan: as you rightly point out, he’s far too old for the level, but that’s largely dictated by injury, and being old for the level due to injury didn’t hurt Bennett’s ranking, for example. In the little time Sullivan has been healthy, he’s been very good. That’s an increasingly rare feat, especially as a SP and not a reliever. I could see Sullivan being a fast riser next year, not too different from Lord in 2024. I’d have him in the top 60.
Thomas Schultz: he had a very strong 2025, and being in AA, he’s in line for an appearance in DC next year. Schultz previously was hyped up as a HS arm, but opted to go to powerhouse Vanderbilt, but got pushed to a bullpen role being among the likes of Jack Leiter and Kumar Rocker (and… teammate Jake Eder). I think there’s some potential upside still there.
Missing a bunch of the 2025 draft class:
Nick Hollifield: probably nothing special, but he’s a catcher, and the state of catching in this org is abysmal, meaning he’s got a pretty easy path to the majors, relative to 90% of the other players listed, and he’s a good deal better than the other guys you lumped into the back up catcher group, even if that’s his future role. And he performed solidly in his shortened ’25 debut (98 wRC+)
Boston Smith: didn’t appear in 2025, but statistically better than Hollifield at the same position
Jack Moroknek: still not sure why he didn’t appear in 2025, but he got the 6th biggest bonus of our draft class, and has very good college numbers. Enough here to dream on.
Juan Cruz: our 20th rounder, also didn’t appear (what’s the deal?). There’s not much out there about him, but he’s weirdly young (turned 21 3 weeks ago… how was he draft eligible?), but as a 1B/3B type, there’s also a relatively clear path to rise the ladder quickly.
Will
29 Sep 25 at 5:28 pm
Wild random stat: Jeremy de la Rosa is five months younger than Hassell and just six weeks older than Crews. We think of him as having been around forever. His career average is .227. He is what he isn’t.
Jackson Cluff actually will turn 29 in December. I wish they had given him an attaboy cup of coffee, although his career average is .219.
Murphy Stehly just turned 27 two days ago. He had college stats that caught my eye, so he’s one I have watched since he was drafted. What a spurt he was having at Harrisburg before he got hurt. He didn’t play after 7/2. He’s Rule 5 eligible, very likely won’t be protected, but he might be worth a look as an NRI in the spring. He has super-utility capability.
Marquis Grissom Jr. is also Rule 5-eligible. At only 24, with strong AA numbers, and with a pedigree, they might have to protect him. (It’s gonna be a long Rule 5 post this year!) Is he the most success of the Nats’ myriad of legacy picks? That also could be an interesting Hot Stove post. Think of the All-Star team of dads we could field . . .
I’ve always had some curiosity about 6-6, 250 lb. Liam Sullivan. Next summer will be his age-24 season, plus he’ll become Rule 5 eligible, so it will be movin’ time for him. There will be a lot of expectation for him to master both A+ and AA.
No insult intended to anyone else on this list, all of whom are extraordinarily good as baseball to have made it this far, but . . . I would be pleasantly surprised if any of them even get close to a whiff of the majors. I don’t think there’s a heck of a lot to discuss about them right now.
KW
29 Sep 25 at 7:39 pm
@SMS: one thing I ended up doing was putting a slew of like-type players together in the groupings of 10. That ended up with like an entire set of arms together, which helped with analysis.
Agree that it’s hard to distinguish between the 75th ranked guy and the 110th ranked guy, when both seem to be 25yr olds in High-A with .220 batting averages. I guess i’m preferring to keep these guys on the list instead of just deleting them and then having someone go, “but what about so-and-so” when i just cut off the list at 50 or whatever.
Todd Boss
30 Sep 25 at 10:04 am
@will: probably should have added at least a couple of the 2025 draft class as you mentioned. It’s probably safe to say that Moroknek is a “better prospect” right now than most of the High-A hangers on drafted 3 years ago who are more than likely to get cut as soon as we need the space. But I’m less inclined to put a 50k senior sign like Boston Smith on until I see him in action. Same goes for Maddox, Tohghini, Hensler.
Todd Boss
30 Sep 25 at 10:11 am
I can’t imagine undertaking a task like this, wow! As the off season creeps along it will be great to come back to this and try to come up with sleepers.
thanks for the effort!
FredMD
30 Sep 25 at 5:12 pm
Hmm, it seems my comment got eaten. The abbreviated version is that I think Boston Smith’s college performance was so elite (11th highest wRC+ among 2400 college bats), that he warrants extra attention than some of the other college seniors we drafted, like Henseler or Walsh, who I intentionally didn’t include.
There’s a surprisingly strong correlation between elite performance (even in lower quality conferences) and good performance in MILB. I lost the numbers from my un-posted comment, but looking at the highest wRC+ performers in 2021 and 2022 indicated that about half of them reached AA or above, without considering any other factor, like conference quality, age, if they were even drafted, and other more detailed scouting assessments.
That alone has me intrigued with Smith. That he also plays the most difficult position, catcher, has me very excited for his 2026 season. I just wish we could’ve gotten a glimpse this year.
Will
30 Sep 25 at 6:57 pm
Todd, I’ve had a chance to look through the top half of the list and I do have a couple comments.
One, I know most shops agree with you and have Willits at the top of the list, but I have him third. Part of that is that I’m still quite high on Susana and Sykora. I’m not as elastic as you are around injuries and don’t intend to really lower my expectations for them until/unless they have setbacks during recovery or struggle upon return. I think they’re both among the best dozen or so pitching prospects overall and are closer to FV60s than generic “top 100” prospects.
I’m also just skeptical on new draftees, and without true “generational player” hype – which no one in this class had, a strong FV50 is about as high as I can go. Now, I will say, looking forward to possibilities for next year, that if Willits rakes and earns a promotion to AA as an 18 year old, I’d be very happy to upgrade him to a 60, power be damned. But if he puts up something like a 90 wRC+ in A+ – which would still be very impressive given his age and position – I’m hard pressed to rate him over Susana or Sykora. And that latter outcome is more in line with my median expectations.
Two, I think you’ve been a little affected by recency bias in some cases. Take Lara and Cornelio as an example. Lara had a terrible year but was solid in AA as a 21 year old. He also came in with a 7 figure bonus and some decent hype. Of course you have to drop him down based on the 2025 season, but I have him in the 20s not 60th! On the flip side, Cornelio was a slot value pick in the 7th round. Pitched 2 seasons with mediocre results before figuring it out and being very impressive this season. But “figuring it out” was excelling in AA at age 25, and then having some mixed results in AAA. He’s absolutely turned himself into a prospect, but 14th is crazy. I think he fits far better around 30th. And again, if 2026 rolls through and Lara is still a disaster or Cornelio figures out AAA, I’m all for moving them at that point. But I think it’s a mistake to assume those outcomes.
Two other names that I have meaningfully higher than you are Dickerson and Vaquero. I know Dickerson struggled some in Fredericksburg, and that he’s actually not that young, but it wasn’t a disaster and his EV numbers are elite (and that nonpublic data is why FG, for instance, moved him up a full grade between 2024 and 2025). I still have him in my top 10. And Vaquero put together a pretty solid year with a wRC+ of 115 (133 in the second half) and a 10 percentage point improvement in his strikeout rate. I don’t see a reason to move him from down from where he was in spring (~20th).
I agree with others that Schnell and Lao are a bit too high, and that Bazzell and Glasser are a bit too low. I’d also have Mota 10 spots higher based on his superlative EV data. And I don’t see what you do on Davian Garcia. Even in low-A, his peripherals were nothing special, and he was pretty disastrous after his promotion to A+. I don’t think he’s really even a prospect and should be somewhere in the 50s or something.
SMS
1 Oct 25 at 4:18 pm
@SMS: this is great feedback. Every player who has been mentioned by name as being an outlier with good explanation is someone i’m flagging for re-consideration later this off-season. I can’t really disagree with anyone’s logic. This (along with MLFA departures, trade acquisitions, Jan IFA signings, etc) will help shape this list, then take into consideration the “professional” takes next spring for a better top to bottom roster. Heck, maybe next March I go 150 deep.
Todd Boss
1 Oct 25 at 5:31 pm
Somewhat related: MLB Pipeline updated their top 100, and 3 Nats feature as before: https://www.mlb.com/milb/news/updated-top-100-prospects-list-for-october-2025?t=mlb-pipeline-coverage
They fall somewhere between you, Todd, and SMS, and have Willits at 15, Sykora at 49 and Susana at 87. Susana was one of the biggest tumblers going from 68 to 87. Weirdly, Sykora didn’t take nearly as much of a fall, despite having potentially a longer recovery time…
I’d also fall closer to SMS. I think it was over at NatsProspects, but right before Sykora got injured, I pointed out that he was having indisputably the best pitching season in all of minor league baseball. That remains his upside, even if injuries put a damper on him realizing that outcome. That alone should keep him our top prospect in my opinion, while acknowledging there’s some serious risk baked in.
Susana too was having a very, very good season before his injury, but on the whole was merely one the best pitchers in the minors. With Susana there’s more warning flags. He struggles much more with his command compared to Sykora, and has all the same injury risks. That suggests his path to a lights out reliever is more likely than Sykora, but with huge upside.
Then behind them I’d place Willits. I’m highly encouraged by his brief cameo this season, and again we’re dealing with small sample sizes, but his performance was EXACTLY what the scouting reports predicted. .300/.397/.360: really good and advanced hit and on base skills, but very limited power. I might’ve expected more than 2 SB attempts with a .397 OBP and his reputed speed, but I’m not worried about it, particularly because he flashed his speed more generally on the base paths rather than via SBs. It’s all especially impressive that he did this as THE(?) youngest player in A ball! But without developing significant power, he looks like a high-floor, low-ceiling kind of guy (which is a super weird way to describe a 17 year old). I’ll be keenly watching if he can tap into more power, as this is his biggest limiting skill, and again, he’s 17 so who knows how he’ll develop physically, but I haven’t seen any scouting report project this to be a strong skill of his. I’d then have Willits ahead of Clemmey, who had a breakout season, but his numbers pale in comparison to Susana and Sykora’s, Morales, Bennett, etc. But given Clemmey’s age, I think he merits serious consideration for top 100 lists.
Will
3 Oct 25 at 4:12 am
Here’s a side note, although it does speak directly to Paul Toboni’s personal experience in the need to look a little deeper with prospects.
After reading that Toboni played at Cal, plus knowing the Nats had a couple of former prospects from there, I looked to see what he did and who he played with. Toboni’s “career” at Cal, such as it was, was 32 plate appearances across two seasons that resulted in three singles and two walks.
He did, however, have a couple of interesting teammates in 2011 (in the same number of games for each):
A: .332/.366/.434, 14 doubles, 2 triples, 3 homers, 44 RBI, 9 SB
B: .275/.371/.415, 11 doubles, 3 triples, 5 homers, 35 RBI, 9 SB
A went in the 2d round of the 2012 draft; B in the 6th round of the 2011 draft. Which one would you take?
Player A (our guy Tony Renda) made 67 MLB plate appearances (although I never understood why). Player B (Marcus Semien) will make a guaranteed $217M and likely end up with close to 60 WAR.
I do wonder whether Renda got a World Series ring with the Red Sox in 2018. He appeared in one regular-season game, during which he pinch ran and scored a run but is not recorded as playing the field.
KW
3 Oct 25 at 2:10 pm
Back to the main conversation. I’d agree with SMS that Sykora and Susana have higher potential ceilings than Willits, but also with more risk, particularly now with significant injuries are part of the equation. Will is right that Sykora was tracking as one of THE best pitchers in the minors before the injury, a potential ace (although some question whether he has “ace” velo).
I’ve said my piece about Willits and don’t want to keep repeating it. With quite limited power, he’s got a narrow path to success: high average, gap power, stolen bases, and above-average defense.
The other part of the Willits equation is that the Nats have invested heavily in young middle infielders, including King, Dickerson, and Coy James. Not all of them are going to play, no matter their draft or bonus status. I have no idea who will make it and who won’t, and neither does anything else. MLB.com still has Dickerson at #4 on their Nats’ list. (It’s also useful to note that Toboni and the folks he’ll bring in didn’t draft any of them, so these players shouldn’t get the draft-status favoritism that the bunch who picked them might have shown. One hopes they will be evaluated on merit alone.)
I like Clemmey a lot, and it’s still hard to fully project him as he could add 20-30 pounds and really become a beast.
A lot of people in the organization (err, formerly in the organization!) were really high on Bennett before he got hurt. It will be interesting to see how dominant he can be in AZ.
Morales and Petry seem somewhat interchangeable to me — power bat 1B/DH types, although Petry seems slated for OF in AZ (Why???). Morales showed significant gap power this year (31 doubles in 128 games), and like others here I’m not sure why the gurus don’t give him more respect. He should be an NRI in the spring and get some significant MLB-level game action.
Also of note: I think all of us will be disappointed if there isn’t a fair amount of trade action under the new regime. Some of these top prospects likely will be leaving, while others are arriving. One disadvantage in all of this is that the new staffers won’t have been able to do their own internal scouting and evaluation. That will be coming, though, and it will be good to have fresh eyes on these folks.
Presumably they’ve already had fresh eyes on the numbers, which show that Nat hitters K too much and don’t know how to take walks. Please bring in better hitting coaches with a different philosophy.
KW
3 Oct 25 at 3:03 pm
MLBpipeline’s dropping Susana 20 places but not Sykora is inexplicable. Susana’s injury is non-arm related! And he’s scheduled to be back early 2026. Sykora is a UCL, a year out, more likely a year and a half.
Either way, the combination of injury and Willit’s potential is why they’re in the 1-2-3 order that MLB has them. And, if those two weren’t hurt they’d be 1-2-3 on my list as well, instead of being 4th and 5th behind healthy arms Clemmey and Bennett.
Todd Boss
3 Oct 25 at 3:25 pm
One thing that has really struck me in the playoffs thus far is how many role-player guys there are on these really good teams. That gives me some hope that the Nats can turn things around without it having to be all driven by spending.
There’s a massive BUT, however, and one that will be fully evident to the front office: the Nats don’t play baseball well, in either the majors or the minors. At the MLB level they were 29th in defensive fWAR, 28th in walks and BB%, 25th in OBP, 28th in pitching fWAR, FIP, K9, and BB9. There is no worse defensive middle infield than Abrams/Garcia. Garcia is a poster child for coming up through the system all the way to the majors but having no idea how to play defense. It’s sort of a “why Johnny can’t read” indictment of the whole system.
Of the younger players, the only one grading out well defensively so far is House, not counting Young, whose bat argues that he really shouldn’t be playing every day. Crews and Wood both had good defensive reputations, but those skills haven’t really been evident yet. And while everyone loves what Lile has done at the plate, he’s a defensive liability.
So please, please bring in people who will teach them how to play the game, at all levels.
KW
3 Oct 25 at 3:55 pm
Todd, has there been specific reporting on Susana’s injury recovery timeline? Over at NatsProspects, there were suggestions Susana would miss most of 2026 recovering. If he’s slated to be back in early 2026 (what does that mean? February or June? And does that mean that’s when he’s allowed to start throwing a ball again? Or when we can expect him to be throwing in competitive games?) then that might slightly change my rating.
Will
3 Oct 25 at 4:28 pm
In other news, all this prospect talk had me check out what Ethan Holliday is up to. He had a decent line of .239/.357/.380 in 18 games, but that obscures his nearly 40% K%. Yikes. Looks a heck of a lot like Elijah Green’s debut season.
Will
3 Oct 25 at 4:40 pm
I didn’t want Holliday, specifically for that reason. High K rates stall progress. I wanted a college arm.
KW
3 Oct 25 at 5:51 pm
Susana Injury: https://www.mlb.com/news/nationals-injuries-and-roster-moves
Well, he’s not on the 9/28/25 version, but he was on a previous version. Surgery, rehab expected to persist into the early part of 2026 season. MLBtraderumors reporeted basically the same.
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/09/nationals-prospect-jarlin-susana-undergoes-lat-surgery.html
Todd Boss
6 Oct 25 at 2:29 pm
Thanks Todd.
Also imagine if we didn’t buck conventional wisdom and signed the 10th best prospect with our 10th pick in 2024… what an outing from Yesavage yesterday! So many missed opportunities to turn this franchise around.
Will
6 Oct 25 at 2:36 pm
I’m not sure what to think about the Nats passing on Yesevage, b/c he ended up going 20th. That’s 10 other teams who also passed on him, and he was just in a different tier of prospects.
I continue to be most irritated by the passing on Montgomery. Griffen didn’t get to us (man, what a different feeling we’d have about our farm system if we’d gotten Konnor Griffen), and Rainer (prep kid) just didn’t seem like our fit at the time.
Doesn’t matter: the decision makers for the 2024 draft are now entirely gone, from top to bottom. In theory, it won’t happen again. We’ll be at almost the exact same spot (11th overall) in next year’s draft, so we’ll have another shot.
Todd Boss
7 Oct 25 at 10:04 am