Nationals Arm Race

"… the reason you win or lose is darn near always the same – pitching.” — Earl Weaver

Atlanta’s pending starting pitching concerns

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Is Medlen quickly approaching an innings limit?  Photo unknown via totalprosports.com

Is Kris Medlen quickly approaching an innings limit? Photo unknown via totalprosports.com

When Atlanta lost bulldog staff Ace Tim Hudson to a gruesome ankle injury last week, the Braves were able to immediately plug in the promising Alex Wood to the rotation and not really miss a beat, at least in the short term.  But an interesting point mentioned by Buster Olney in his daily ESPN Baseball Tonight podcast highlighted a dilemna that the Braves may face later this season.

Specifically; they’re depending on a lot of young arms right now who are projected to blow past 2012 and/or career innings totals, and the team may be facing a critical decision when it comes to managing innings and workload as this season progresses.  This is very much of a Tom Verducci-effect concern, which admittedly some people do not subscribe to, but some of these potential workload increases are so substantial that they cannot be ignored.

Here’s a table showing the number of innings their current set of younger starters have thrown this year (in all levels) as compared to last year (innings as of 8/1/13).  The season right now is basicaly 2/3′s over (108 of 162 games played), so I’ve used a simple 33% addition to current workloads:

Starter Age 2013 Innings to date 2013 projected 2012 ttl innings Projected delta Projected delta % increase
Mike Minor 25 144 191.52 179.33 12.19 6.36%
Julio Teheran 22 126 167.58 137.33 30.25 18.05%
Kris Medlen 27 125 166.25 151.33 14.92 8.97%
Alex Wood 22 95.33 126.7889 154.33 -27.53 -21.70%

However, this may be too simplistic a projection.  Each of their starters has about 10 starts left.  Lets assume each of them goes an average of 6 innings in each of these starts.  Now the 2013 projected totals rise a bit;

Starter Age 2013 Innings to date 2013 projected factoring 6ip/start for 10 starts 2012 ttl innings New projected delta New projected delta %
Mike Minor 25 144 204 179.33 24.67 13.76%
Julio Teheran 22 126 186 137.33 48.67 35.44%
Kris Medlen 27 125 185 151.33 33.67 22.25%
Alex Wood 22 95.33 155.33 154.33 1.03 0.67%

Mike Minor has never had any injury concerns and only really faces a small increase in the number of innings he will throw, but if he gets much above 200 innings there may be some concerns.   If he hits 204 innings, that’s a 13% workload increase over last year.

Likewise with Kris Medlen; if he makes 10 more starts and averages 6 innings a start, he’s looking at more than a 20% workload increase over last year.  Medlen is technically still coming back from Tommy John surgery done on 8/18/2010, though it isn’t as much of a concern this year as it was last (when they worked him out of the bullpen before installing him in the rotation later in the year).  A potential 20% innings increase year to year has got to be concerning for a guy with a TJ surgery in his background.

Meanwhile, Julio Teheran doesn’t have any injury history to fend with … but he’s looking at a pretty significant jump over his 2012 inning totals.  His career high was in 2011 with about 160 between the minors and majors.   But if he continues in the rotation he’ll start to get up there towards the 180 innings range, a pretty significant jump over last year.

Lastly there’s Wood, their 2nd round pick in 2012′s draft.  He has rocketed up the farm system, dominating the Sally league in his draft year, skipping high-A, then dominating AA before getting the call-up.  When you add in his college workload to his 2012 minor league numbers, he may be right in line to pitch the same number of innings as lastyear.  There’s just the small concern of a guy who this time last year was making his professional debut in low-A continuing to be effective for a major league team in a pennant race.

This analysis doesn’t include any innings analysis for Hudson (out for the year), Paul Maholm (currently on the D/L) or Brandon Beachy (just coming back from injury and without innings limitations this late in the season) since they’re either unavailable or don’t have any inning limit concerns.  Beachy had his Tommy John surgery on 6/21/13 and, while he should be healthy, still may not be 100% (to this point, his first start back was a debacle, giving up 7 runs in 3 2/3 innings).   Maholm is on the D/L now but should be off within a couple weeks (he has a “Wrist Contusion”), but he’s also their least effective starter on the year.  And of course Hudson is out until at least next spring with his broken ankle at best; his career in jeopardy at worst.

What should they do?

As you can imagine, their problem may be exacerbated because somebody has to throw post-season games (I think its safe to assume the Braves are making the post-season at this point).

This is why some questioned the Braves lack of pursuing a starter in the trade market to replace Hudson and keep Wood in the minors.  Of course, the Braves probably didn’t want to do this knowing they had Beachy coming off the D/L and Maholm returning soon too (probably pushing Wood back to AAA).   But if Teheran runs out of innings, the Braves are looking at a post-season rotation that isn’t exactly a world-beater (Minor-Maholm-Beachy and Medlen?).  Then again, that hasn’t stopped them while building a double-digit lead in the NL East.

It should be interesting to see if the Braves end up with a Stephen Strasburg shutdown-gate of their own as we head into September.

2 Responses to 'Atlanta’s pending starting pitching concerns'

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  1. Something tells me the controversy won’t be Strasburgian because, well, it doesn’t involve Strasburg, the most hyped (and hopefully not to be ultimately proven overhyped) pitching prospect–EVAH.

    bdrube

    2 Aug 13 at 5:27 pm

  2. Probably right. A better shutdown-gate that is pending that could be relatively close to Strasburg last year will actually happen in St. Louis with Shelby Miller. At 121 innings now, he threw 150 total last year. Give him 10 more starts and 60 more innings and he’s at 180 before the playoffs start. That’d be a 20% increase. tough to do with a 22yr old…

    Todd Boss

    3 Aug 13 at 4:51 pm

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