Nationals Arm Race

Is Morgan's time running short with the Nats?

I know its early in the spring, and I know that we’re only three games in, but I wonder if the team is seriously considering whether or not Nyger Morgan is the presumed starter in CF.  Jim Riggleman was quoted as saying (paraphrased) that if the season started today, Morgan is his center-fielder.

Last season was a disaster for Morgan.  Behavioral issues, the brawls, the suspensions, the antics in the outfield, plus his serious regression at the plate.  His slash line for 2010 was .253/.319/.314.  Two things jump out there; his slugging percentage was LOWER than his OBP, and his OBP was ridiculously low for a supposed table-setting lead-off hitter.  Even his defense regressed (per UZR/150 rankings) from his stellar 2009 season.

Meanwhile, Michael Morse hit the cover off the ball last year and Roger Bernadina, while slumping badly in September (his slashline for his final 107 plate appearances was .161/.243/.215 and took his season OPS+ from somewhere in the 110 range down to its season ending 86).  Bernadina bulked up in the off-season and came ready to compete for the left fielder job while Morse has picked up right where he left off with a 2-homer game earlier this week.

Here’s the thing though; perhaps it isn’t a straight up competition between Morse and Bernadina for left field.  Perhaps the right solution is to put Bernadina in center, Morse in left and have Rick Ankiel serve as the 4th outfielder.  It would mean the probable end of Morgan with the team though.  He has an option and can be sent down, but (based on his behavior last year) its hard to believe he’ll rise to the occasion of the demotion and earn his way back up.

Some other side-effects of such a move:

• Morse can play 4 positions (1st, 3rd, left or right), meaning they’d have some infield cover if need be.
• With only 4 outfielders on the 25-man roster, we would free up a roster spot that presumably for someone like Matt Stairs, who most beat writers seem to think is making this team.  We’d be able to keep two utility infielders (selecting from Hairston, Gonzalez and Cora presumably) PLUS Stairs coming off the bench.

There are some negatives to this arrangement:

• We’d have no clear-cut leadoff man.  Bernadina does have some base stealing prowness (16 SB with only 2 CS in 2010) and showed yesterday his bunting ability.  But even during his best months in 2010 he was only maintaining about a .313 OBP.  That’s not enough for a leadoff guy.  Ian Desmond could be moved to leadoff but he makes more sense as a #2.  Danny Espinosa may eventually fit the bill as a leadoff guy but his power capabilities seem to lend him to being more of a #2 hitter himself.
• We’d take a step back in defense in Center.  Bernadina *can* play center but he’s not nearly as good at it as Morgan.  Likewise, Werth *can* play center but is truly a right fielder.

Some have said that Mike Rizzo will force the team to stick with Morgan longer than expected since he was part of Rizzo’s first big trade and he wouldn’t want to admit defeat so quickly.  To those, I say that’s fairly ridiculous.  To purposely harm the team’s performance and force the use of a sub-standard player on a team that is still rebuilding and has rookies to test out just to protect one’s ego over a player move made 2 years ago is silly.  Besides, it is clear to me the Nats “won” that trade regardless of what happens to Morgan; Milledge was flat out released in the off season and Hanrahan has pitched well but not as well as Burnett.  Even if we drop Morgan tomorrow i’d still rather have Burnett over Hanrahan (both based on performance and lefty versus righty).

The question is; how committed is the team to Morgan?  If he puts up a .200/.250/.260 April at the plate, are we going to make a change?  Might it happen if Morgan can’t put together a decent spring?