Nationals Arm Race

"… the reason you win or lose is darn near always the same – pitching.” — Earl Weaver

World Series Game 2 Pitching Matchup and Prediction


Game 1 went as I thought; Adam Wainwright may be unbeatable at home, but he’s shown that he’s vulnerable on the road (see the Nationals’ destroying of him in last year’s Game 5 start).  Boston jumped on him early and cruised to an 8-1 victory.

(I don’t know what that green substance was on Jon Lester‘s glove … but i’m sure we’re going to a) be reading all about it and b) it won’t be there when he pitches again in Game 5).

Game 2: Michael Wacha vs John Lackey.   Without doing a bunch of analysis, as badly as St. Louis hits lefties is as well as they hit righties.  Wacha has been unbelievable this post season (a 0.43 ERA).  Lackey has been competent but not un-hittable.  I feel like St. Louis gets a split and goes home with the series tied 1-1.

I think Carlos Beltran will be fine.  I think all the nerves and errors we saw in Game 1 will go away.  St. Louis has been here before and should be able to rebound from the series of bone-head plays that led to many of Boston’s runs.

(btw; interesting piece in the Post today about Wacha, who was drafted a few picks after the Nats took Lucas Giolito.  Lots of second-guessing going on by everyone who skipped him in the 2012 draft.  It is what it is; you setup a draft board, and if you get to your pick and Giolito is ahead of Wacha you pick him.  Albert Pujols was a 13th round pick; sometimes you miss on amateur guys.   Per the story, if Giolito had been gone the team would have taken him).

Written by Todd Boss

October 24th, 2013 at 11:53 am

2 Responses to 'World Series Game 2 Pitching Matchup and Prediction'

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  1. Lester said the green stuff was resin, to provide a better grip. Strange explanation since resin, even wet, isn’t green. Publically neither team said they’re concerned. Privately, I’ll bet there is more concern, since any foreign substance in pitcher’s glove is be illegal.

    As Boswell points out, MLB drafting is a crapshoot, especially for pitchers. Somewhat the same situation for quarterbacks, although I think there is a little more prediction success in NFL drafting. Todd, you should compare success rates, in draft positions between NFL quarterbacks and major league pitchers–in your spare time of course.


    25 Oct 13 at 10:30 am

  2. Yeah … have you ever seen flourescent green resin before? Every resin bag on any baseball mound i’ve ever seen is white powder. Maybe he got some green tinted resin from someone Irish, or perhaps from a St. Patricks day tournament.

    The “omerta” among pitchers when it comes to doctoring baseballs is hilarious. I think back to the shot of Kenny Rogers with the pinetar on his palm, clear as day, and the consensus was that the opposing manager just said “hey can you not be so obvious” because he knew his team was doing the same stuff. Its a slippery slope; if you allow just one substance then you allow them all.

    Interestingly about Wacha … Keith Law still projects him just as a #2/#3 pitcher, despite his great 2013 and postseason. He still rates Giolito higher.

    I like QB drafting/success versus pitchers. But the answer almost has to be that the success rate for pitchers is much lower. Maybe pitchers in the first round versus QBs in the first round? Yeah; lots of spare time for that one :-)

    Todd Boss

    25 Oct 13 at 10:48 am

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