Nationals Arm Race

"… the reason you win or lose is darn near always the same – pitching.” — Earl Weaver

And the winner of the #1 overall pick in the 2015 draft is…

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http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/reversestandings

Your Arizona Diamondbacks!   Here’s next year’s top 10 (click on the above link for the full first round; the Nats will pick 30th out of 31 picks next year if we keep the pick).

(Another more complete post on this topic from MinorLeagueBall, including all the comp picks, bonus allocations and whatnot.)

2015 pick #
Team 2014 W 2014 L 2014 W/L Pct
1 Arizona Diamondbacks  64 98 0.395
2 Houston Astros
3 Colorado Rockies  66 96 0.407
4 Texas Rangers  67 95 0.414
5 Houston Astros  70 92 0.432
6 Minnesota Twins  70 92 0.432
7 Boston Red Sox  71 91 0.438
8 Chicago White Sox  73 89 0.451
9 Chicago Cubs  73 89 0.451
10 Philadelphia Phillies  73 89 0.451

Houston retains the #2 overall pick after failing to sign last year’s #1 Brady Aiken.  Teams that tied in records are given priority based on last year’s W/L record, meaning that Houston picks before Minnesota, the White Sox before the Cubs and Phillies, etc.   Houston, for their prolonged incompetence, gets the 2nd and 5th pick next year, and I’m sure they’ll figure out a way to out-smart themselves and screw it up again.  And that’s if they even keep the picks: 5th rounder Jacob Nix had his deal axed when Aiken’s deal went south, thanks to the ridiculous new signing bonus rules.  Nix has filed a grievance and if the Astros are forced to honor his deal, they’ll lose one or both of these picks (and maybe more).

The Diamondbacks with their fresh and completely inexperienced General Manager Dave Stewart now have the honor of selecting one from quite a few interesting candidates for #1 overall right now.  Aiken presumably will pitch a year at JuCo and be a completely legitimate shot to go 1-1 again (assuming he doesn’t get hurt).  But he’ll also be looking for significant money.  Duke’s Michael Matuella (who is a local kid, hailing from Great Falls and who attended Georgetown Prep) has been shooting up boards.  A couple of other prep players are considered upper first round talent (Brendan Rodgers in Florida, Mike Nikorak in Pennsylvania, Kolby Allard in California).  And, with a rising class of college juniors we have more than a few big-time college guys who may push Aiken down off the top spot.  Namely, Walker Buehler from Vanderbilt, Phil Bickford (late of Cal State Fullerton) or maybe even the likes of Kyle Funkhouser (Louisville) or Carson Fuller (Vanderbilt).  In fact, Vanderbilt may be like UCLA was a few years back, with two starters selected in the top of the first round.  And like always, some one may come out of nowhere to claim the 1-1 spot with an under-slot deal, much like the Astros did in 2012.

The top 10 for next year is rounded out by four of the wealthiest clubs in the game (Boston, both Chicago teams and Philadelphia).  Which also means that along with Texas, half the teams who finished in the bottom 10 this year were among the highest spenders in terms of payroll in 2014.  You can’t fault Texas necessarily, but you can certainly continue to mock Philadelphia.  How does Frank Wren get fired but Ruben Amaro keeps his job?

2 Responses to 'And the winner of the #1 overall pick in the 2015 draft is…'

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  1. With the Nats picking 29th, it would seem a small sacrifice for them to have to surrender that pick to sign a tendered free agent. In looking over the FA lists, though, it’s hard to see a lot of guys who will get a $15+ tender, so this may be a “freer” free agent market. So the Nats keep the pick and draft yet another fire-baller who will have to have his arm reattached . . .

    KW

    13 Oct 14 at 4:41 pm

  2. Ken … i would have said that too in 2012 but the pick we gave up and the players who were on the board in 2012 so that we could have a $30M closer was pretty drastic. If its a “smart” pick so be it.

    Todd Boss

    14 Oct 14 at 11:50 am

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