Nationals Arm Race

Ahead of the 2025 draft, which has no real consensus for 1-1 and the possibility of a risky HS kid taking at the top, I thought it’d be fun to document my own personal reactions to our 1-1 picks, in the immediate aftermath, then see how my writing aged. When, as it turned out, we DID take a risky HS kid at the top (but not the one most of us thought), I wasn’t aghast necessarily, but surprised. And it got me thinking: I’m on record writing these instant reactions for years; how have my “hot takes” aged?

So, here’s a fun “hindsight is 20/20” look at my instant reactions to see if I was spot on or way off.

If we had multiple 1st rounders I’ll just talk about the first one (only comes up once with the Kieboom/Dunning draft), and in years we lost a pick I’ll discuss why and opine on those moves too (happened twice, in 2013 and 2015, and for now won’t happen again with new CBA rules).

Useful links for this read: Nats Draft Tracker (all our picks as a franchise with signing bonuses since 2005), and the Baseball-Reference.com Draft Database link right to Nats 1st rounders.

• 2025: Eli Willits, Prep SS from Oklahoma HS. 1st overall, bonus tbd. My instant reaction from earlier this week: I think its safe to say I would have preferred Kade Anderson as a closer-to-the-majors player, as opposed to a 17yr old we won’t see for years.

• 2024: Seaver King, SS, Wake Forest. 10th overall, $5.1M bonus. NatsArmRace instant Reaction July 2024. My instant reaction at the time summarized: this was a surprise, under-slot pick, thought they should have taken someone else, and felt this was a reach (most shops had him ranked in the 17-19 range). I wanted them to take Branden Montgomery (who went 2 picks later) … who of course is slashing .345/.433/.582 in his pro debut in Kannapolis (perhaps to be expected since its Low-A). King has not started his pro career well, thought he is in a hitter’s death valley in Wilmington.

Interesting quote from the post: “Seaver King did not appear in a SINGLE MOCK draft in the top 10 that I can recall, nor was he ever associated with a Nats pick at #10. This is coming out of LF for sure.“

• 2023: Dylan Crews, OF, LSU. 2nd overall, $9M bonus. NatsArmRace instant Reaction July 2023. My instant reaction at the time summarized: happy to get Crews, who was the 1-1 projection for most of the draft season and the Golden Spikes winner. Thought I did say by the time the draft rolled around that I would have preferred we get Skenes Of course, as it has turned out Skenes has been a generational 1-1 player… but he was off the board for us. Crews is in the majors now, which is a big step for prospect development, but has not hit nearly as well in his debut as we would have liked. See the below quote:

Interesting quote from the post: “I think I would have preferred Skenes if we had the choice, given our lack of pitching prospect depth and our abundance of OF prospects, but that can all work itself out later.“

• 2022: Elijah Green, OF, IMG Academy (FL). 5th overall, $6.5M bonus. NatsArmRace instant Reaction July 2022. My instant reaction at the time summarized: I didn’t really commit to an opinion one way or the other, interestingly. I threw up some scouting report text instead of providing strong opinion one way or the other. I do seem to defend the pick slightly, as per the below quote. Right now, this pick is looking terrible, with Green back in the FCL trying to fix his contact issues.

Interesting quote from the post: “I understand there’s people who hate this pick. It is an upside pick, clearly. This pick is about ceiling, not floor. This is about picking someone who might be the next Ken Griffey; a guy who’s already 6’3″ with 70 power who also has 70 speed.“

• 2021: Brady House, 3B, Winder Barrow HS (GA). 11th overall, $5M bonus. NatsArmRace instant Reaction July 2021. My instant reaction at the time summarized: I was ecstatic that House fell to us at #11. Plain and simple. I loved this pick. Right now it’s aging decently, with House in the majors and getting his sea legs.

Interesting quote from the post: “Suffice it to say; I like this pick. Yes he’s a prep kid, meaning he’s of no real immediate help, but based on our 2021 team and the turnover we likely face this coming off-season, we may be entering a rebuilding phase anyway, and House could be part of a crew that helps kick-start the franchise in a few years.“

• 2020: Cade Cavalli, RHP, Oklahoma. 22nd overall, $3.027M bonus. NatsArmRace instant Reaction June 2020. My instant reaction at the time summarized: I found that he hit all the markers for a solid RHP starter, but was concerned about his lack of pitching track record in college. I don’t think I knew his name before he got picked. This pick is not aging well frankly: two lost seasons to injury, and his AAA performance in 2025 leaves much to be desired. Is he a washout? No, not yet, but he’s nearly 27 now and needs to be in the majors contributing.

Interesting quote from the post: “Cavalli is a speculative, scouting-first pick; he has little track record to go on, and this is the kind of pick that you can regret later on if he doesn’t work out.“

• 2019: Jackson Rutledge, RHP, San Jacinto College North (TX). 17th overall, $3.45M bonus. NatsArmRace instant Reaction June 2019. My instant reaction at the time summarized: I was happy with the pick, and they seemed to get a bit of a steal on a player ranked higher than they got him. This take, and the pick, have not aged well; while he’s made the majors he has a 6 ERA there.

Interesting quote from the post: “He throws over the top, is up to 98-99 on the fastball with a mid 80s cutter, a wipe out slider, a 12-6 curve and some deception due to what’s described as “unusual short arm” mechanics.  I’m hoping we’re getting something closer to Randy Johnson and not a rehashing of Jake Johansen.“

• 2018: Mason Denaburg, RHP, Merritt Island HS (FL). 27th overall, $3M bonus. NatsArmRace instant Reaction June 2018. My instant reaction at the time summarized: I liked the pick, getting a player projected to go mid-1st but who fell because of a minor injury (an omen perhaps). This take didn’t age well, and Denaburg never got out of a-ball.

Interesting quote from the post: “This pick is consistent with the behavior we saw when the team selected Lucas Giolito; high-value guy getting picked about 15 spots lower than he should have.“

• 2017: Seth Romero, LHP, Houston. 25th overall, $2.8M bonus. NatsArmRace instant Reaction June 2017. My instant reaction at the time summarized: Hated it. Well, at least I got this one right at the time. See the below quote:

Interesting quote from the post: “Well, the worrisome situation came to pass; the Nats couldn’t help themselves and drafted perhaps the draft’s biggest knucklehead.  His list of transgressions at Houston were large and dumb; fights with teammates, weight/conditioning issues, drug issues.”

• 2016: Carter Kieboom, SS, Walton HS (GA). 28th overall, $2M bonus. NatsArmRace instant Reaction June 2016. My instant reaction at the time summarized: I was surprised they went with a prep kid, but the scouting report called him one of the best hitters in the class.

Interesting quote from the post: “Described consistently as a great hitter, one of the best prep hitters in the class, he currently plays SS but is projected to move to 3B.“

• 2015: No 1st round pick; lost for Max Scherzer signing. Can’t complain about that. Again, like in 2012, thanks to our league best record in 2014, it would have been the 31st overall pick, hence feeding into the thought process that it wasn’t nearly as valuable as if it were in the teens.

• 2014: Erick Fedde, RHP, UNLV. 18th overall, $2.5M bonus. NatsArmRace instant Reaction June 2014. My instant reaction at the time summarized: I didn’t like the pick, calling it an overdraft of a guy with a blown out elbow before even starting his pro career.

Interesting quote from the post: “He’s a Scott Boras client, he was a HS teammate of Bryce Harper, and he’s rehabbing a torn UCL, so he fits in nicely with the Nats on several levels.  It was easy to see why the mock drafts were all over the Nats taking Fedde.“

• 2013: No 1st round pick; lost for Rafael Soriano signing, which I was lukewarm about at the time and grew to really hate as we learned how much of a knee-jerk reaction it was to Storen’s 2012 NLDS meltdown and of Lerner’s influence on player acquisition at the time. It would have been #33 overall, since we were the best team in 2012, so it’s not like we lost a super high pick. That was the argument the team made to forgo the pick with a Class-A FA signing.

• 2012: Lucas Giolito, RHP, Harvard-Westlake HS (CA). 16th overall, $2.9M bonus. NatsArmRace instant Reaction June 2012. My instant reaction at the time summarized: I was really worried about the amount of trust the Nats were putting into surgeons with our draft class.

Interesting quote from the post: “Giolito, if healthy, was in the mix for 1-1.  As was Purke.  As was Rendon.  All three fell because of injury concerns.  So clearly these are top-end talents, each individually worth the risk.  But all three within two draft classes?“

• 2011: Anthony Rendon, 3B, Rice. 6th overall, $6M bonus. NatsArmRace instant Reaction June 2011. My instant reaction at the time summarized: Absolutely ecstatic that we got Rendon. In fact, I distinctly remember being on a live-chat text chain with friends that night and my jaw dropping in amazement as Rendon was skipped over pick after pick. Remember; this guy was the Golden Spikes winner as a SOPHOMORE in college.

Interesting quote from the post: “I still can’t quite believe that Rendon fell to us.  I thought for sure he was going #2 or #3 overall.“

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I started the blog in mid June 2010, so I missed opining on our 1st overall pick Bryce Harper that year. I’m sure I liked it 🙂

So, how did my opinions age? Mostly decent.

I seemed to like:

• Rendon, Denaburg, Rutledge, House, Crews

I was lukewarm on:

• Kieboom, Giolito, Cavalli, Green, King, Willits

And I disliked:

• Fedde, Romero

So, not the best track record of Hot Takes. We’ll see how 2025 ages.

This is a running post with all star notes for the team, updated for 2025. It includes a complete history of our All Star selections dating to the franchise’s beginnings in 2005, and may look familiar as I recycle the old content every year.

Nats All Star Game Trivia: none of these have updated for our 2025 selections.

• All-time leader in Nats all-star appearances: Bryce Harper and Max Scherzer, both with 6 appearances with the Nats.  (these numbers are only appearances with us, not including other franchises)
• All-time leader in All-Star Game starts: Harper, who had 5 starts.
• Total number of Starters in the history of the Franchise: Now is 11; Harper 5 times, Scherzer 3 times, and one each for Soriano, Murphy, Zimmerman.
• Most all-star players named in a single year: 5 in both 2016 and 2017.
• Least all-star game players named in a single year: 1 in multiple years during the “dark years” of 2006 through 2011, and now again in the early 2020s as the team rebuilds.
• Most unlikely All-Star: Probably Dmitri Young or Cristian Guzman, both being the “someone has to make the all star team” nominations in our 100 loss period in the late 2000s.

(* == All-Star game starter)

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2025

• Nationals All-Star Representative: James Wood, MacKenzie Gore (both 1st timers)
• Snubs: CJ Abrams
• Narrative: No surprises here; both Wood and Gore have been near league-best this season. Is it surprising the team got two ASG representatives as a last-place team? Absolutely. Last year’s AS rep Abrams, if we were a 1st place team instead of last place, likely would have gotten his 2nd AS naming since he enters the AS break with a 144 OPS+ figure but is skipped due to the deep SS field in the National League. Wood also got into the HR derby (which we didn’t separately cover this year) but went one-round and out.

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2024

• Nationals All-Star Representative: CJ Abrams, Kyle Finnegan (both 1st time)
• Snubs: Trevor Williams (on dl)
• Narrative: Abrams was initially our sole representative until Finnegan was added at the last minute as an injury replacement. Williams should have been the named representative, sitting in the top 10 in most pitching categories, but got hurt a few weeks before the ASG and probably won’t return for weeks afterwards. We have a couple other players putting up decent seasons (Winker, Irvin) but none really All Star worthy.

Four Ex-nats appeared in the 2024 ASG, three of them starters (Harper, Turner, Soto). Amazingly Reynaldo Lopez represented Atlanta. Erick Fedde didn’t make the ASG but is considered one of the best trade prospects of the year. Wish we could have gotten these two guys to pitch like this for us.

2023

• Nationals All-Star Representative: Josiah Grey (1st)
• Snubs: None really
• Narrative. The Nats were bad this year, and were one of those teams that had to dig deep to find a sole representative. Grey was our opening day starter and was our best starter for the bulk of the year. We had some other players who ended up having decent seasons (Candelario, Thomas, Harvey) but they would have too much competition in their respective positions to earn a spot.

2022

• Nationals All-Star Representative: Juan Soto (2nd)
• Snubs: Josh Bell
• Narrative. Soto gets his 2nd ASG appearance, probably more on reputation than performance for 2022. He’s only hitting .243 as of the naming, but is getting on base at nearly a .400 clip thanks to his league-leading walk figure. Meanwhile, the best hitter on the team by far is Bell, who is snubbed from making his own 2nd ASG appearance likely a couple of weeks before he’s traded to a contender. Well, when you’re a last place team, you’re only getting one guy on the roster. Soto also gets into the Home Run Derby, which he wins. However, the story of the week was the leaking of contract talks breaking down, with Soto turning down a $440M deal and the team announcing they’re entertaining trade talks.

2021

• Nationals All-Star representatives: Trea Turner, Juan Soto, Kyle Schwarber, Max Scherzer* (substitute addition)
• Possible Snubs: none
• Narrative: The Nats scuffle into the all-star week on fumes thanks to losing 7 of 9 against NL West teams and suffering perhaps one too many injuries. Scherzer was not initially named, which I immediately listed as a huge snub. But then not only was he added as a replacement player … he was then named the damn starter. How is that possible? Anyway, among our other named players Schwarber’s injury prevents him from playing, but Soto gets into the Home Run derby, where he upsets #1 seed Shohei Ohtani before losing in the next round.

2020

• Nationals All-Star representatives: (No Game)
• Who would have made it: Juan Soto
• Narrative: Covid-19 forced the cancellation of the ASG and the shortening of the season from 162 to 60 games. Nonetheless, the season that Juan Soto put up should have been recognized, even un-officially. He hit .351/.490/.695 in 47 games for an astounding 221 OPS+ figure, the 33rd best ever season posted by this figure. But, since Soto got hit with Covid and had to miss the first two weeks … he did not qualify for batting titles and was left out of the ASG and MVP conversations.

2019

• Nationals All-Star representatives: Max Scherzer, Anthony Rendon
• Possible Snubs: Juan Soto, Stephen Strasburg, Howie Kendrick, Trevor Rosenthal (just kidding)
• Narrative: Rendon finally is named to an all-star team, having played in the shadows of other more well-known NL third basemen for  years.  Arbitrary Endpoints: Rendon is 7th in baseball among hitters in total fWAR since 2014.  7th.  In the entire league.  And this is his first ASG.  Meanwhile Scherzer is the obvious pick, though i’m not sure he gets the start this year.  Scherzer leads the NL in bWAR … but Hyun-Jin Ryu is having an amazing season and could get the nod (indeed, he has).  Soto’s numbers are solid, as good as his rookie campaign, but he started slow and the story-line surrounding the Nats this season has overshadowed his production.  Strasburg actually has more bWAR than Rendon … but his numbers are solid, not all-star good.  Kendrick would never have gotten a nod, but he should be a shoe-in for comeback player of the year for the season he’s having.  Others of note: Sean Doolittle was amazing for most of the first half but has tired and his numbers slipped.  Patrick Corbin‘s debut season has been solid, not flashy, and he has the same issues as Strasburg had.

Post publishing update: neither of our two representatives are actually going to Cleveland.  Rendon staying home to rehab a nagging quad injury, and Scherzer is traveling but will not pitch b/c he threw a start just ahead of the game.  Both players were replaced by non-Nats … which was a shame b/c a like-for-like with Strasburg for Scherzer seemed like the right thing to do.

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2018

• Nationals All-Star representatives: Bryce Harper*, Max Scherzer*, Sean Doolittle
• Possible Snubs: Juan Soto, Trea Turner, Anthony Rendon
• Narrative: For the home-town All Star Game, Harper gets the starting nod from the fans despite his abhorrent season at the plate (his slash line on 7/8/18: .219/.371/.475).  However, by making the ASG, Harper now keeps his promise to participate in the Home Run Derby one last time before hitting free agency.   There’s no real “snubs” on this Nationals team; The #2 player on the team in terms of seasonal bWAR is Trea Turner but he’s not exactly having a head-turning season.  He was named to the “last 5 ballot” but was a huge long-shot to make it (update; he didn’t: the very deserving Jesus Aguilar did).  Anthony Rendon is having his typical under-rated season and got no love from the voters over the more famous Nolan Arenado (a common refrain when it comes to Gold Gloves/Silver Sluggers too).  None of our starters besides Scherzer are really deserving; Stephen Strasburg was having a decent but not spectacular season but missed a month and is on the D/L.  Nor is any of the bullpen past Doolittle.  Its an odd-season where a team-wide malaise is contributing to the team hovering at .500 at the All Star Break.  Only Juan Soto really is deserving … but he was never going to make the ASG (not when recent more spectacular rookies failed to make it) and thanks to his missing all of April and most of May he wasn’t on any ballots and may struggle to win the RoY over guys who have played longer this season.  Scherzer is named to the team on 7/8/18 was named the  NL starter for the 2nd year running on 7/16/18.

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2017

• Nationals All-Star representatives: Bryce Harper*, Daniel Murphy*, Ryan Zimmerman*, Max Scherzer*, Stephen Strasburg
• Snubs: Anthony Rendon, Gio Gonzalez
• Narrative: For the second  year in a row, the Nats are well and properly represented in the All Star Game.  We have three starters named in the field, including Zimmerman who beats out a slew of 1B sluggers in the NL to not only make the team but get his first start.  Its also likely i’ll be editing this post and adding in Scherzer as an additional starter; he is the obvious choice to start the game for the NL given his first half production (7/10/17 update: yes indeed we did).  Rendon is having a very quiet solid season and is in the “last 5” popular vote, but he seems unlikely to win given that last year’s MVP Kris Bryant is also in the voting (Update: neither guy got in).  Gonzalez misses out despite having a better first half than Strasburg by nearly any statistic; he’s having a career year but seems unlikely to get rewarded with his 3rd ASG appearance.  There’s no other real snub from our 2017 team; certainly there’s nobody in the bullpen meriting a spot, and Trea Turner‘s torrid 2016 2nd half did not translate into the 2017 season (not to mention, he’s had two separate D/L trips).  Once again i’m slightly perturbed that Harper continues to refuse to participate in the HR derby; why the reticence?  Its a fun event that is quickly becoming better than the actual game itself and practically every other slugger is participating.  Is he afraid to lose?  On a larger scale, i’m really happy to see (finally) that deserving rookies are named: Aaron Judge and Cody Bellinger are both named and are both on the inside track for ROY awards; too many times in the past we see deserving rookies unnamed.  On July 10th, the fourth Nat starter was named: Scherzer got the starting pitcher nod, a first for the Nats.  August Update: Rendon’s omission is looking even more ridiculous; he’s top 5 in the league in bWAR.

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2016

• Nationals All-Star representatives: Bryce Harper*, Stephen Strasburg, Daniel Murphy, Wilson Ramos, Max Scherzer (named as replacement for Strasburg on 7/8/16),
• Possible Snubs: Danny Espinosa, Tanner Roark
• Narrative: The four obvious candidates from the Nats this year were all initially correctly selected, though voting shenanigans out of Chicago elected Ben Zobrist over Daniel Murphy by a scant 500 votes.   I thought perhaps Strasburg would have a chance to start the game, given his 12-0 record, but it seems the team pre-empted any such thought when Scherzer’s naming occurred.  For the first time writing this post, I can’t really name any “snubs” and the team has (finally?) earned the proper respect it deserves in terms of naming its players properly.  Espinosa had a week for the ages just prior to the end of voting but really stood little chance of selection in the grand scheme of things.  He’s not really a “snub” but is worthy of mention based on his resurgent year.  At the break, Espinosa ranked 3rd in NL fWAR but 7th or 8th in bWAR thanks to differing defensive value metrics, so maybe/maybe not on him being a “snub.”  As pointed out in the comments, even I missed the sneaky good season Roark is having; he’s 12th in the NL in bWAR at the break and 9th in fWAR but was left off in favor of any number of starters that stand below him in value rankings.  Unfortunately for fans (and for Harper’s “Make Baseball Fun again” campaign, he opted to skip the Home Run Derby again.  I guess its kind of like the NBA superstars skipping the dunk contest; the Union should really do a better job of helping out in this regard.  The new format is fantastic and makes the event watchable again; is it ego keeping him from getting beat by someone like Giancarlo Stanton?

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2015

• Nationals All-Star representatives: Bryce Harper*, Max Scherzer
• Possible Snubs: Yunel Escobar, Drew Storen
• Narrative: Harper not only made it in as a starter for the 2nd time, he led the NL in votes, setting a MLB record for total votes received.  This is no surprise; Harper’s easily in the MVP lead for the NL thanks to his amazing first half (his split at the half-way point of the season: .347/.474/.722 with 25 homers and an astounding 225 OPS+).  I guess he won’t be earning the “Most overrated player” award next year.  That Harper is electing to skip the Home run derby in a disappointment; his father is nursing an arm injury can cannot throw to him in the event.  In a weird year for the Nats, the only other regular worth mentioning is newly acquired Escobar, who is hitting above .300 and filling in ably at multiple positions that, prior to this year, he had never played.  Storen is having another excellent regular season … but at a time when mandatory members from each team often leads to other closers being selected (there are 5 NL closers and 7 AL relievers), the odds of him making the All-Star team were always going to be slim.  Scherzer deservedly makes the team and probably would have been the NL starter; he’s got sub 2.00 ERA and FIP and leads all NL pitchers in WAR at the mid-way point of the season.  But his turn came up in the final game of the first half, making him ineligible for the game and forcing his replacement on the roster.

As a side note, the 2015 All-Star game will go down as the “Ballot-Gate” game thanks to MLB’s short-sighted plan to allow 30+ online ballots per email address.  This led to severe “ballot stuffing” by the Kansas City Royals fans, led to MLB  having to eliminate 60 million+ fraudulent ballots, but still led to several Royals being elected starters over more deserving candidates.

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2014

• Nationals All-Star representative: Jordan Zimmermann (Update post-publishing: Zimmermann strained a bicep, and had to withdraw from the ASG.  For a bit it looked like the Nats wouldn’t even have a representative, until Tyler Clippard was named on 7/13/14).
• Possible Snubs: Adam LaRoche, Anthony Rendon, Rafael Soriano, Drew Storen
• Narrative: Zimmermann’s been the best SP on the best pitching staff in the majors this year, and thus earns his spot.  I find it somewhat odd that a first place team (or near to it) gets just one representative on the team (as discussed above).  Rendon tried to make the team via the “last man in” voting, but historically Nationals have not fared well in this competition (especially when better known players from large markets are in the competition, aka Anthony Rizzo from the Chicago Cubs), and indeed Rendon finished 4th in the last-man voting.  LaRoche is having a very good season, almost single handedly carrying the Nats offense while major parts were out injured, but he’s never going to beat out the slew of great NL first basemen (Joey Votto couldn’t even get into this game).  Soriano has quietly put together one of the best seasons of any closer in the game; at the time of this writing he has a 1.03 ERA and a .829 whip; those are Dennis Eckersley numbers.  But, the farce that is the all-star game selection criteria (having to select one player from each team) means that teams need a representative, and deserving guys like Soriano get squeezed.  Then, Soriano indignantly said he wouldn’t even go if named as a replacement … likely leading to Clippard’s replacement selection.  The same goes for non-closer Storen, who sports a sub 2.00 ERA on the year.  Advanced stats columnists (Keith Law) also think that Stephen Strasburg is a snub but I’m not entirely sure: he may lead the NL in K’s right now and have far better advanced numbers than “traditional,” but its hard to make an argument that a guy with a 7-6 record and a 3.50+ ERA is all-star worthy.

2013

• Nationals All-Star representatives: Bryce Harper*, Jordan Zimmermann
• Snubs: Stephen Strasburg, Ian Desmond
• Narrative: Harper comes in 3rd in the NL outfielder voting, ahead of some big-time names, to become only the second Nationals position player elected as an All-Star starter.  He was 4th in the final pre-selection vote, so a big last minute push got him the starter spot.   Harper also becomes the first National to participate in the Home Run Derby.   Zimmermann was 12-3 heading into the game and was on mid-season Cy Young short lists in July in a breakout season.  Strasburg’s advanced stats are all better than Zimmermann’s, but his W/L record (4-6 as the ASG) means he’s not an all-star.  It also probably doesn’t help that he missed a few weeks.  Desmond loses out to Troy Tulowitzki, Everth Cabrera and Jean Segura.  Tulowitzki was having a very solid year and was a deserving elected starter, while Cabrera and Segura are both having breakout seasons.  Desmond was on the “Final vote” roster, but my vote (and most others’ I’m guessing) would be for Yasiel Puig there ([Editor Update: Desmond and Puig lost out to Freddie Freeman: I still wished that Puig finds a way onto the roster but ultimately he did not and I believe the ASG was diminished because of it).   Gio Gonzalez, Ryan Zimmerman, and Rafael Soriano are all having solid but unspectacular years and miss out behind those having great seasons.

2012

• Nationals All-Star representatives: Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez, Ian Desmond, Bryce Harper
• Possible Snubs: Adam LaRoche, Craig Stammen
• Narrative: The two SPs Strasburg and Gonzalez were the obvious candidates, and my personal prediction was that they’d be the only two candidates selected.  Gonzalez’ first half was a prelude to his 21-win, 3rd place Cy Young season.  The inclusion of Desmond is a surprise, but also a testament to how far he’s come as a player in 2012.  Harper was a last-minute injury replacement, but had earned his spot by virtue of his fast start as one of the youngest players in the league.  Of the “snubs,” LaRoche has had a fantastic come back season in 2012 but fared little shot against better, more well-known NL first basemen.  Stammen was our best bullpen arm, but like LaRoche fared little chance of getting selected during a year when the Nats had two deserving pitchers selected.

2011

• Nationals All-Star representatives: Tyler Clippard
• Possible Snubs: Danny Espinosa, Michael Morse, Drew Storen, Jordan Zimmermann
• Narrative: While Clippard was (arguably) the Nats best and most important reliever, I think Zimmermann was a more rightful choice.  He was 10th in the league in ERA at the time of the selections and has put in a series of dominant performances.  Meanwhile Espinosa was on pace for a 28-homer season and almost a certain Rookie-of-the-Year award (though a precipitous fall-off in the 2nd half cost him any realistic shot at the ROY), and perhaps both players are just too young to be known around the league.  Lastly Morse is certainly known and he merited a spot in the “last man in” vote sponsored by MLB (though he fared little chance against popular players in this last-man-in voting).

2010

• Nationals All-Star representatives: Matt Capps
• Possible Snubs: Adam Dunn, Josh Willingham, Ryan Zimmerman, Stephen Strasburg
• Narrative: Capps was clearly deserving, having a breakout season as a closer after his off-season non-tender from the Pirates.  The 3-4-5 hitters Zimmerman-Dunn-Willingham all had dominant offensive seasons as the team improved markedly from its 103-loss season.  But perhaps the surprise non-inclusion was Strasburg, who despite only having a few starts as of the all-star break was already the talk of baseball.  I think MLB missed a great PR opportunity to name him to the team to give him the exposure that the rest of the national media expected.  But in the end, Capps was a deserving candidate and I can’t argue that our hitters did anything special enough to merit inclusion.

2009

• Nationals All-Star representatives: Ryan Zimmerman
• Possible Snubs: Adam Dunn
• Narrative: The addition of Dunn and Willingham to the lineup gave Zimmerman the protection he never had, and he produced with his career-best season.  His first and deserved all-star appearance en-route to a 33 homer season.  Dunn continued his monster homer totals with little all-star recognition.

2008

• Nationals All-Star representatives: Cristian Guzman
• Possible Snubs: Jon Rauch
• Narrative: The first of two “hitting rock-bottom” seasons for the team; no one really merited selection.  Zimmerman was coming off of hamate-bone surgery in November 2007 and the team was more or less awful across the board.  Rauch performed ably after Cordero went down with season-ending (and basically career-ending) shoulder surgery.   Guzman’s selection a great example of why one-per-team rules don’t make any sense.  Guzman ended up playing far longer than he deserved in the game itself by virtue of the 15-inning affair.

2007

• Nationals All-Star representatives: Dmitri Young
• Possible Snubs: Ryan Zimmerman, Shawn Hill (though I wouldn’t argue for either)
• Narrative: Young gets a deserved all-star appearance en route to comeback player of the year.  Zimmerman played a full season but didn’t dominate.  Our 2007 staff gave starts to 13 different players, most of whom were out of the league within the next year or two.  Not a good team.

2006

• Nationals All-Star representatives: Alfonso Soriano*
• Possible Snubs: Nick Johnson, Ryan Zimmerman, Chad Cordero
• Narrative: Soriano made the team as an elected starter, the first time the Nats have had such an honor.  Our pitching staff took massive steps backwards and no starter came even close to meriting a spot.  Cordero was good but not lights out as he had been in 2005.  Soriano’s 40-40 season is a poster child for “contract year” production and he has failed to come close to such production since.  The team was poor and getting worse.  Johnson had a career year but got overshadowed by bigger, better first basemen in the league (a recurring theme for our first basemen over the years).

2005

• Nationals All-Star representatives: Livan Hernandez, Chad Cordero
• Possible Snubs: Nick Johnson, John Patterson.
• Narrative: The Nats went into the All Star break surprisingly in first place, having run to a 50-31 record by the halfway point.  Should a first place team have gotten more than just two representatives?  Perhaps.  But the team was filled with non-stars and played far over its head to go 50-31 (as evidenced by the reverse 31-50 record the rest of the way).

With the draft now compressed to just two days, we’ve had to punch out a ton of content real quickly. Here was our quick reaction to the 1-1 pick Eli Willits, then we did a post on the first 10 rounds of picks, which seemed to include one top pick with a big haircut, one near-slot slugger, three prep kids who need over-slot deals, then five senior signs.

Here’s the rest of our draft, which comprises guys we’ve never heard of but will nonetheless lookup their stats where available and pass some judgement.

Here’s the two main draft tracker resources you need and that I’m updating this week once the draft is complete.

• Nationals Draft Tracker: this is the long-running Google XLS with all our picks dating to 2005. There’s two tabs here: the main page with every pick, then a deeper-dive 2025 Draft pick with slot bonus breakdowns and other information on each pick.
• MLB’s Draft Tracker, the best of various options of Draft Trackers out there.

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Here’s links to major Prospect Rankings shops that I’ll reference below when assessing the “value” of the pick. I’m not expecting a ton of the 11-20th rounds to have any top-XXX rankings honestly.

• Baseball America top 500 (paywall)
• The Athletic/Keith Law top 100 Draft board, (paywall)
• MLBpipeline expanded top 250 Draft Board
• Fangraphs FV-based Draft Board
• ESPN Top 250 Draft Prospects for 2025
• Prospects1500 Top 250 Draft board released 7/7/25
• Baseball Prospectus MLB Draft Big Board for 2025 posted 7/3/25 (paywall)
• ProspectsLive Final Top 400 Draft board released 7/12/25 (paywall past top 10)

Other useful tools while evaluating these guys:

• MLB 2025 Combine Attendees:
• D1baseball Transfer Portal at d1baseball.com, also same at Baseball America, both paywall

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• 11th Round, #321 Overall: Jack Moroknek, Coll Jr. OF from Butler

Ranks by major shops: BA=398

Morokneck is listed as a “Coll Sr” on MLB’s draft tracker, but he is finishing up his third year of college. He came into school old, so he’s already turned 22. I’m calling him a Coll Jr. irrespective of what MLBpipeline says. He was Butler’s leading hitter this year, slashing .372/.443/.702 with power. He’s a 6’3″ classical big guy corner OF (he played a lot of RF for Butler) and the BA scouting profile shows promise. In a repeating trend, his scouting report talks about his elite Exit Velocity (EV), putting him at 90% percentile for D1. This is not the first time we’ve seen EV listed prominently for a player the team has drafted, and I have to believe this is a specific marker our new-fangled scouting department is focusing on.

11th rounders are always an interesting set of players, often with the talent level to have been more like a 5th/6th rounder and often commanding a premium over the $150k figure, so Morokneck will be one to keep an eye on. We’ve mostly tried out College Arms who slipped out of the top 10 with our 11th rounders as of late, often throwing an extra $100k at them, and have had varying success.

• 12th Round: #351 overall: Ben Moore, Coll JR LHP from Old Dominion

Ranks by major shops: MLB=237, BA=243

A local kid! He’s from ODU in Norfolk by way of Linganore HS in Frederick, MD. Ben Moore began the 2025 season as the #64 ranked prospect by BA … but by season’s end he had fallen out of the top 10 rounds. He went from the bullpen for ODU his first two years into the rotation this year and struggled: 6.64 ERA, 1.68 whip. He was just generally wild: 32 walks and 12 HBPs in 63 innings, and despite having a fastball up to 97 he averaged less than a K/inning. So, that’s not a great 2025, but clearly he had some near 2nd round potential before the season. The team has to be betting on this prior reputation, similarly to the way the Angels were betting on Tyler Bremner’s pre-2025 season promise by picking him 2nd overall. Is he signable? Absolutely; he went to the MLB combine, and you don’t go to the combine if you’re not looking to get drafted and start playing pro. I can’t see any reason he wouldn’t go for the $150k slot.

• 13th round: #381 overall: Tucker Biven, Coll Jr. RHP from Louisville

Ranks: BA=347

Biven served as a swing-man for top-10 ranked Louisville team this year, getting both starts and saves throughout the year. He didn’t have the greatest stats this year and certainly took a step back from his 2024 season, where he had better numbers. 2025 stats; 23 appearances, 5 starts, 43ip, 3.71 ERA, 1.58 whip. Is he signable? He still has eligibility and did not attend the combine. But, if he’s projecting to the Louisville bullpen again in 2026, what does he have left to prove? He could end up in a senior sign 7th round situation offered $10k, versus gambling on a guaranteed $150k payday today. I think he signs.

• 14th round: #411 overall: Nick Hollifield, Coll Jr. C from UAB

Seems like a middle of the road college catcher; not great hitting stats, got a nod for a mid-season Buster Posey nomination award (goes to the best college catcher). Slashed .266/.376/.415 this year. Was a rock behind the plate for UAB, making 50+ starts this year. Will he sign? This season was his best offensively, so if he wants to play professionally now’s the time. I think he signs.

• 15th round: #441 overall: Jacob Walsh, Coll Sr 1B from Oregon

Senior 1B, decent stats this year, 1,000 OPS with 19 homers and some SB. Attended the MLB combine, which clearly did him some favors as we pick him up. Was the Oregon career HR record holder after his JUNIOR year, only extended it in his Sr. season. Lefty, big guy, but also was named to some all-conference Defensive teams. Seems like a decent prospect.

• 16th Round: #471 overall: Levi Huesman, Coll Jr LHP from Vanderbilt

Huseman is at Vanderbilt by way of Richmond baseball powerhouse Hanover HS. He was initially at Coastal Carolina but xferred in for his sophomore season. This year, he threw just 16 innings this year: 20/4 K/BB in those ip with solid 2.81 ERA. He was a 17th rounder out of HS but went to college, now he’s a 16th rounder after his Junior year. He did not go to the MLB combine. He’s been barely used out of Vandy’s pen for two years now, and I wonder if he wants to stick around for another year of pitching an inning a week. Seems like he’d be signable.

• 17th round: #501 overall: Bryce Molinaro, Coll Jr 3B from Penn State

Penn State is not exactly a baseball powerhouse. And Molinaro wasn’t exactly an offensive superstar there this year, slashing .267/.373/.502 for the season. He’s a PA kid who initially went to St. Johns and who then redshirted and transferred, so technically he’s a RS Sophomore. He was a lot better last year, slashing .329/.409/.560 as a RS freshman. If he signed, he’d be signing low honestly. He did not attend the MLB combine. I think the combination of his downturn in performance, his now attending Penn State as a PA resident (PA guys are completely enamored of Penn State), and the fact that he still has two years of eligibility means he’s going to stay in school and won’t sign.

• 18th round: #531 overall: Owen Puk, Coll Sr RHP from Florida International

Puk posted a 4.91 ERA/1.39 whip with decent K/9 but some control issues (23 walks in 40 ip plus 11 WPs) as a sat/sun “starter” for FIU this year. I put “starter” in quotes because he usually only went 3-4 innings, often less, resulting in just 40IP cross 15 appearances. He’s technically a RS junior, having missed all of 2023 getting Tommy John. If you recognize the unique last name you should: he’s the brother of AJ Puk, who was a 6th overall pick a decade ago by Oakland and who is in the majors now. So, Owen isn’t nearly the prospect AJ was, but isn’t a bad bet based on pedigree for an 18th rounder. He’s done four years in school and should sign.

• 19th Round: #561: Mason Pike Prep HS RHP/SS from Puyallup HS (WA)

Ranks: MLB=135, BA=68.

So, we get our one prep backup plan pick here in the 19th round. The Nats have generally used their 19th or 20th picks to grab a big-name prep kid who’s slipped out of signing range as insurance in case one of their negotiations goes south with the kids they grabbed in the 1st-5th rounds. I guarantee you Pike would sign for the overage we’d planned on spending there. He’s a 2-way Oregon State commit who BA had ranked #31 at season’s beginning, so we’re talking a 1st-2nd round talent. He’s a switch hitter with a bunch of 60 tool grades, can hit 97 on the mound but otherwise is mostly being evaluated as a SS. He’ll play both ways if/when he gets to college.

• 20th round: #591 overall: Juan Cruz, 1B Coll Jr from Alabama State University

BA ranked 474

Our 20th rounder is intriguing: Juan Cruz, huge 1B from Alabama State (6’5″ 240) who attended the MLB combine as a junior. His numbers this year are impressive: .420/.481/.690 for a gaudy 1.171 OPS figure. He’s technically a Redshirt sophomore, but he went to the MLB combine this year, which I’m reading like others as his intent to get drafted and sign. He crushed the ball last year to earn all-conference Freshman of the year, and was SWAC player of the year in 2025. I see one caveat here: he’s in the transfer portal and has committed to move to Georgia. Does he want to roll the dice with a season in the SEC, or to turn pro having dominated his league? We’ll see.

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So, a decent balance of arms and position players from 11-20, a couple of guys with solid college stats that might turn out solid. 9 of the 10 picks here were college guys with the one insurance prep kid as an exception.

I’ve updated the Draft Tracker’s 2025 draft with this data, and will start to be on the lookout for signings and NDFAs. I’ll also populate the social media links of these players, since that’s where they often tip their hat to signings or inclinations of returning to school.

We just posted a quick reaction to the 1-1 pick Eli Willits. Here’s a run through the first 10 picks, for all of Day 1 and Day 2 of the draft, showing where the various prospect ranking shops ranked our picks, with some thoughts and bonus projections.

Here’s the two main draft tracker resources you need and that I’m updating this week in as close to real-time as I can given my current employment status :-):

• Nationals Draft Tracker: this is the long-running Google XLS with all our picks dating to 2005. There’s two tabs here: the main page with every pick, then a deeper-dive 2025 Draft pick with slot bonus breakdowns and other information on each pick.
• MLB’s Draft Tracker, the best of various options of Draft Trackers out there.

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Here’s links to major Prospect Rankings shops that I’ll reference below when assessing the “value” of the pick.

• Baseball America top 500 (paywall)
• The Athletic/Keith Law top 100 Draft board, (paywall)
• MLBpipeline expanded top 250 Draft Board
• Fangraphs FV-based Draft Board
• ESPN Top 250 Draft Prospects for 2025
• Prospects1500 Top 250 Draft board released 7/7/25
• Baseball Prospectus MLB Draft Big Board for 2025 posted 7/3/25 (paywall)
• ProspectsLive Final Top 400 Draft board released 7/12/25 (paywall past top 10)

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• 1st Round, 1st Overall: Eli Willits, Prep SS from Fort Cobb-Broxton HS in Oklahoma.

Ranks by major shops: BA=3, Law=8, MLB=5, Fangraphs=5, Prospects1500=6, ESPN=3

As already discussed, this was a shock pick to most pundits and the industry, who had the Nats taking either Anderson or Holliday for the most part. Willits is still a top 5 player on nearly every draft board (Keith Law being the low-man on him, citing lack of power). A lot of the shops talk about his floor being easy to attain, so there’s that. For me, I think he’s a #5 overall pick projection who made it to 1-1 probably by cutting a deal, so we’ll see how much savings the team got (probably in the $3M range) and how they can spread it out amongst the rest of the draft. Committed to Oklahoma, where his dad is on staff, but he’ll never get there.

• 2nd round #49 overall: Ethan Petry, a 4th year College Jr 1B/OF from U of South Carolina

Ranks by major shops: BA=36, Law=68, MLB=59, Fangraphs=104, Prospects1500=44, ESPN=75

Petry pretty clearly is a slugger. He’s got 60s and 65s for his power grade amongst the various shops, and is probably a LF/1B/DH type in pro ball. He has posted solid power numbers throughout his career, with pretty impressive 110mph+ EVs. One scouting report even said he could have been in the mix for 1-1 if he was better defensively (which seems like a stretch) An interesting pick here, and one that (like the Willits pick) seems to be more analytics driven (his eye popping EV). Is this an over- or under-slot pick? Is he getting $1.98m here? I’ll bet he signs for a bit under-slot.

• 3rd round #80 overall: Landon Harmon, RHP prep from East Union Attendance Center HS (MS)

Ranks by major shops: BA=65, Law=95, MLB=48, Fangraphs=31, Prospects1500=65, ESPN=76

Mississippi State commit who is tall (6-5) with a huge fastball (has hit 100) but mechanical concerns (well at least if you believe Keith Law, who thinks everyone has mechanical issues). Yes, he’s a prep right hander in an organization that hasn’t done a great job producing them over the last decade, but has been a bit better as of late with Sykora and Clemmey and even Cuevas, who was a prep 21st rounder and who still is active). We’ll see. this seems like a slightly over-slot deal here, and if you pay him like an early 2nd rounder (i.e. throw in another $1M on top of his slot $1m) he could sign. Should be interesting to see what he signs for. Committed to Mississippi State.

• 4th round #111 overall: Miguel Sime Jr, RHP prep from Poly Prep Country Day School (NY)

Ranks by major shops: BA=88, Law=nr, MLB=86, Fangraphs=120/HM, Prospects1500=nr, ESPN=nr

Four picks into the new regime and we already have more prep kids drafted than the last 5 drafts combined. Ok, no that’s not quite true… but its close. Sime is from a northern school but has apparently been at every showcase held for the last two years. MLB gives him a 70 grade on his fastball, no small feat. He was at the NHSI that I covered earlier this year, and per BA’s scouting report “held upper-90s velocity for more than 100 pitches” against the Corona HS team that had both Carlson and Hernandez. Wow. This is a big guy: 6’3″ 235 already, that’s like linebacker sized. Hitting 99, sitting 95-96. I’m guessing it takes another extra $750 to get him to sign. Committed to LSU, not that that matters anymore. I like him on paper for sure.

• 5th Round #142 overall Coy James, a prep SS from Davie HS (NC)

Ranks by major shops: BA=49, Law=nr, MLB=94, Fangraphs=66, Prospects1500=59, ESPN=69

He’s a 6’0″ shortstop who most of the scouts list as one of the best pure hitters in the class. he was an U18 starter as an underclassman, and per reports has “explosive power” despite being a SS. James went into the 2025 prospect season as a slam dunk top 10 pick, projected as high as #10 by BA’s ranks at the time. So what happened? Scouting reports say he gained weight, which added power but caused him to lose athleticism. It sounds to me like someone in the Nats org fell in love with him at a combine somewhere and figures they can get him in shape. He projects like a 20-homer slugging 2B in the pros, and apparently has a “strong commitment” to ole Miss. I’ll bet he nabs near 1st round money ($2.5M or more) and this could be where a lot of our savings goes.

• 6th round: #171 overall: Boston Smith, Col Sr. C/OF from Wright State
• 7th round: #201 overall: Julian Tonghini, Col Sr RHP from Arizona
• 8th round: #231 overall: Riley Maddox, Col Sr RHP from Ole Miss
• 9th round: #261 overall: Wyatt Henseler, Col Sr 2B/3B from Texas A&M
• 10th round: #291 overall: Hunter Hines, Col Sr 1B from Mississippi State.

Ranks by major shops: none

So, it’s now pretty clear that this is going to be a 5-man draft. With all due respect to these guys, they are drafted in these spots for one reason: Bonus $$ savings. Every one of these guys is a 4th or 5th year senior with no leverage, and they all probably agreed to sign for $10k (or less), which nets a collective $1.3m or so for the team to throw at other players. There’s no real scouting reports available on any of them.

Of course, this team has had some decent results out of these senior sign/throw away picks lately. Jackson Ross signed for just $2k last year and has already earned a promotion to High-A. Glasser is in AA now as a $10k signing in 2023. Murphy Sthehy the same; in AA as a $10k signing in 2022. Our backup catcher in AAA is Brad Lindsly; he signed for just $20k in the Covid year and is still going. So, these players do matter and can have an impact.

That being said, here’s a quick look at each of them, primarily looking at stats from their colleges and bio:

• Boston Smith at Wright State was a monster at the plate this year, with a 1.274 OPS slashing .332/.500/.774 with 26 homers. He hit three homers in his first three games at the CWS Vanderbilt regional, helping Wright State to eliminate the #1 seed and certainly making an impression.
• Julian Tonghini at Arizona was a back of the bullpen type; 22 games, 25 IP. Not great numbers from an ERA or WHIP perspective but struck out 44 guys in 25IP. I’m sure that’s what the team is looking at; decent value reliever who is old enough to get through the lower minors fast and see if he’s got what it takes to stick.
• Riley Maddox was in Ole Miss’ rotation all year and struggled, 5.56 ERA, 1.45 whip. 69/30 K/BB in 69 IP. He regressed a bit from his Jr. season, where he also made every start.
• Wyatt Henseler at Texas A&M: .319/.423/.562 for the season. He was a grad student at TAMU, having done four years at UPenn. He was a 2nd team pre-season All American at D1baseball.com, and certainly hit like it. If he put these numbers up as a Coll Jr he’d be a 4th or 5th rounder; instead he’s a no-leverage 9th rounder for us. He played both 2B and 3B in college and probably can do the same in for us. I’ll bet he can hit in pro ball and I like this pick.
• Hunter Hines from Mississippi State slashed .280/.380/.578 as their primary 1B all year. Big guy, 6’3″ 210, lefty swinger. He was first team all-SEC as a sophomore, starting to get some traction, but lost some of that traction in the last two years. Still, he took over the all-time lead in homers late in the 2025 season at the program, besting the record formerly held by Rafael Palmeiro. He seems like a pure masher who is destined for 1B/DH levels, but that’s worth a gamble for sure.

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So, that being said, Here’s what I think the team does with its bonus dollars.

• Willits: slot $11M. I bet he signs for a bit more than the $8.1M that the 5th overall slot was guaranteed for (his projection in most mocks): call it $8.5M, so $2.5M savings.
• Picks 6-10: total bonus pool: $1.33M, $10k each so $50k less, plus the 5% cushion leads to $1.3M in savings.
• Petry: slot $1.98M, I’ll bet he signs for a bit less: call it $1.75M for $250k of savings.

So that would give the team right around $4M to work with before the 5% cushion.

• Harmon: slot of $1M, add another $1.5M = $2.5M bonus, or around the end of the 1st comp round.
• Sime: slot of $687k, add another $1M = $1.6M bonus, or around mid 2nd round
• James: slot of $508k, add $1.5M = $2M bonus, or around the beginning of 2nd round.

Something like this.

I’ll post the 11th->20th round picks in another post.

Though I was traveling all weekend (bad timing to try to cover a Sunday evening event properly), I was able to tape and quickly watch the first 15 minutes or so of the 2025 draft to catch the top picks.

To say that the mock drafters were wrong all spring would be a huge understatement, starting at the top.

The Nats come out of nowhere to pick Eli Willits out of an Oklahoma HS at 1-1. Nobody all spring had Willits on the Nats’ radar, and I (and the MLB TV pundits) were in shock.

My quick thoughts: this really sends a weird message from the team. They just fired their long-standing GM presumably because they were disappointed in the direction of the team … then instead of drafting a polished college guy who might be able to contribute with the current set of stars we have, we draft the youngest ever player to go 1-1 in Willits, who reclassified from the 2026 class and who likely does appear in the majors for half a decade. Willits certainly was a highly ranked player, and ranked a lot higher on some teams’ draft boards simply because of his age. He’s 6′ 1″ 180 pure SS switch hitter whose father was a dirt-balling utility guy in the majors for a few years and who looked like a cut-rate Pete Rose at the plate.

Can’t say I like this pick, at all. I think Anderson is closer to a MLB rotation, I think Doyle could be in a bullpen role in the majors right now, and I think Holliday projects to be a far better player. I can only assume that they got a massive deal on the bonus, which will allow them to “stock up” on more prep kids in the next two days.

Does this pick (and its cascading effects on the rest of the draft) represent a monumental shift in the front office’s thinking now that Rizzo is gone? Maybe. But it certainly doesn’t portend well to the fanbase who have seen 5 straight losing seasons to pick a 17 yr old. Yes, I get it, you don’t draft for “need.” But you also don’t ignore context of where you are as a franchise and where you’re going. To me, this pick sends the following message: “We don’t think we’ve got it, even with Gore and Wood and Abrams and Crews and House, so we’re getting set for the future.” Especially if the pick was made to save dollars for more prep kids today and tomorrow.

Here’s the very last post I’ll do on 1-1 predictions for this Draft season. I’ll include all the “final” mocks for our various favorite pundits, probably will have to add in more post-publishing, and will make a final prediction on the top 5.

I’m repeating this link block b/c shops are updating their Draft Board Ranks, as noted below

• MLBpipeline expanded top 250 Draft Board. updated 6/27/25
• Baseball America top 500 Board updated 6/25/25 (paywall)
• Keith Law top 100 Draft board, updated 7/1/25 (paywall I think)
• CBS Sports/RJ Anderson Top 30 Board 6/12/25
• Baseball Prospectus MLB Draft Big Board for 2025 posted 7/3/25 (paywall)
• Prospects1500 Top 250 Draft board released 7/7/25
• ProspectsLive Final Top 400 Draft board released 7/12/25 (paywall past top 10)
• ESPN Full Draft coverage Home page, including links to all mocks, boards, etc.

Final Mocks from our favorite pundits:

• Keith Law/The Athletic: 7/12/25 final mock: Anderson, Hernandez, Arquette, Holliday, Willits.
• Jim Callis/MLBPipeline 7/13/25 Final Mock: Anderson, Doyle, Hernandez, Holliday, Willits.
• Jonathan Mayo/MLBPipeline: 7/13/25 Final Mock: Anderson, Doyle, Hernandez, Holliday, Willits.
• Baseball America Staff. Final Mock 7.0 7/13/25: Anderson, Doyle, Hernandez, Holliday, Willits.
• Fangraphs/Eric Longenhagen: 2025 Mock Draft 7/13/25: Willits, Doyle, Holliday, Anderson, Carlson
• ESPN/Kiley McDaniel: Mock 3.0 7/10/25: Anderson, Doyle, Hernandez, Holliday, Willits.
• RJ Anderson/CBSSports (didn’t see one)
• Mike Axisa/CBSSports First Round Prediction 7/13/25: Anderson, Doyle, Irish, Holliday, Willits
• Prospects 1500: Final Mock 7/13/25: Anderson, Arnold, Hernandez, Holliday, Willits.
• Prospects Live Final Mock 7/12/25: Anderson, Doyle, Hernandez, Holliday, Arnold
• Baseball Prospect Journal: Mock 4.0 7/20/25: Anderson, Arnold, Arquette, Holliday, Willits
• D1Baseball/Prep Experts Mock: paywall
• Baseball Prospectus: paywall

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My current prediction for the top 5: More and more I think we’ll go Anderson, as does the rest of the industry. My final prediction:

• Anderson, Doyle, Arquette, Holliday (lock here if he doesn’t go 1-1), Arnold

I’m repeating this analysis from before on the teams in the top 5 and their proclivities with their 1st rounders, but i’ve added to it a bit as it helps guide the predictions:

Post publishing Actual top 5 picks

ACTUAL PICKS post mocks: shockers and surprises. Willits, Bremner, Anderson, Holliday, Doyle.

Almost nobody got it right: only Longenhagen, who was one of the last people to publish, got Willits right amongst the major shops. Bravo.

We seem to have saved the weirdest list for last. While all other pundits release their “pre-season” prospect lists before the actual season starts, Fangraphs and Eric Longenhagen waited until nearly the All Star break to release their list, the 29th of the 30 lists to get published (only Houston remains).

So, what does this list represent? Does it represent the state of our prospects before the season started and before we saw leaps forward from the likes of Lord, or Henry, or Sykora? Or, does it represent where these players sat in terms of reputation before a pitch was thrown? Honestly, its hard to gauge, based on this list, since on the one hand it still has Crews at #1, but on the other it clearly takes into account 2025 performance in some cases already (for example, having Dickerson at #6 when he ranked him #27 at the same time last year or ranking Henry in the top 10).

So, I’m not sure how to critique this list honestly.

Here’s the top 39:

Rank	Last Name	First Name	Position
1	Dylan	Crews	OF (CF)
2	Travis	Sykora	RHP (Starter)
3	Jarlin	Susana	RHP (Starter)
4	Brady	House	SS/3B
5	Daylen	Lile	OF (CF)
6	Luke	Dickerson	SS/CF
7	Seaver	King	SS
8	Cade	Cavalli	RHP (Starter)
9	Jake	Bennett	LHP (Starter)
10	Cole	Henry	RHP (Starter)
11	Caleb	Lomavita	C
12	Alex	Clemmey	LHP (Starter)
13	Daniel	Hernandez	C
14	Yoel	Tejada Jr.	RHP (Starter)
15	Victor	Hurtado	OF
16	Cristian	Vaquero	OF (CF)
17	Robert	Hassell III	OF (CF)
18	Kevin	Bazzell	C/3B
19	Andry	Lara	RHP (Starter)
20	Tyler	Stuart	RHP (Starter)
21	Jackson	Kent	LHP (Starter)
22	Dashyll	Tejeda	OF (CF)
23	Marconi	German	SS
24	Zach	Brzykcy	RHP (Reliever)
25	Orlando	Ribalta	RHP (reliever)
26	Jackson	Rutledge	RHP (Starter)
27	Kevin	Made	SS
28	Sir Jamison	Jones	CA
29	Angel	Feliz	3B/SS
30	Brayan	Cortesia	SS
31	Brad	Lord	RHP (Starter)
32	Darren	Baker	2B
33	Marquis	Grissom	RHP (Reliever)
34	Yohandy	Morales	3B
35	Jorgelys	Mota	SS
36	Cornelio	Riley	RHP (Starter)
37	Erick	Mejia	RHP
38	Jose	Feliz	RHP (Starter)
39	Carlos	Tavares	OF

Here’s some thoughts.

• Crews still at 1-1, despite exhausting any semblance of rookie eligibility about a week into the 2025 season.
• 2-3-4 as expected. Susana not dinged for the “TJ-sounding” injury he seems to have, which would probably impact his lofty ranking otherwise and, based on the wholesale dumping of other prospects who got hurt, doesn’t seem to make any sense.
• Dickerson at #6, as he should now and going forward. Which .. ok did they take into account his hot start or was this pre-season ranking? Last year, Dickerson was #27 on this list. So there’s your answer.
• Cole Henry all the way up to #10. Clearly this takes into account his sudden ability to get MLB batters out in the bullpen. Last year: not ranked, meaning he was in the upper 30s at best.
• Clemmey is “only” at #12, which I find kind of ridiculous. I mean, what more do you want the kid to do? He literally just turned 20, has put up two straight months of sub 2.00 ERA, and seems likely to get promoted to AA before the season is out. And he’s behind a pitcher in Bennett who’s four years older and who can’t seem to throw more than 3 innings at a time right now?
• Daniel Hernandez at #13 is super bullish. And now is as good of a time as any to point out the “flaws” in the Fangraphs FV system and how it ranks prospects. Longenhagen’s system basically values ceiling with a significant downgrading of the floor. So, you see a guy like Hernandez, who just turned 17 and who is currently slashing .208/.269/.264 as a catcher in the DSL (he’s caught about half the games, DH’d the other half) ranked nearly in the top 10 but players like Andrew Alvarez and Andrew Pinckney, who are in AAA right now producing, are not even in his top 39. Hernandez at #13 is asinine. Putting him inside the top 20 is nearly as dumb. I had him #37 before the season started, and he’s likely falling 20-30 spots the next time I do the ranks.
• Vaquero at #16. What exactly has this guy done to have him ranked that high at this point in his career, besides get a $4.9M bonus?
• Hassell dumped down to #17 in a season where he forced a promotion to the majors and where he’s got a 1.000 OPS in AAA … one spot ahead of Bazzell at #18, who’s hitting like .150 in A-ball. Make it make sense.
• A first time mention for one German Marconi. A 2025 IFA signing for a reasonable $400k in January, he’s got a pretty impressive slash line right now in DSL: .269/.491/.513 for an OPS north of 1.000. He’s got 24 walks and 17 strikeouts; that’s unheard of. This is the first time I’ve seen him on any prospect lists, and clearly he’s one to watch.
• Longenhagen’s system also overrates relievers. Except … when it doesn’t. Ok quick quiz: which reliever who’s made it to the major leagues this year do you think is higher rated? Ribalta, Brzycky, Rutledge, or Lord? If you guessed Lord, who has a 111 ERA+ in 33 appearances … you’d be wrong! Lord is ranked 4th out of these four. I guess in his system actual performance on the field doesn’t actually count.
• Made comes in at #27, which was about right for pre-season, but which may be low now given his offensive explosion so far this year.
• Ok, so Hernandez is ranked #13 right? And he’s hitting at the Mendoza line. Meanwhile, Brayan Cortesia, who got 5x the bonus dollars in January at $1.9M … is currently slashing .477/.558/.523 in the DSL … and he’s ranked 30th while Hernandez is 13th?? Really?
• Morales at #34. Wow. I mean, just wow. Of course, Fangraphs doesn’t rate Morales at all; last year they had him at #19. I mean, what’s the guy gotta do? Get to AAA at age 23 despite injuries and then hold your own there? That’s gotta be worth something right?
• Erick Frigging Mejia at #37. OK this is just trolling us right?

OK, so there’s a lot of problems in this list. But here’s some of the names not even in the top 40:

• Cayden Wallace, mostly a top 10 player on other lists; outside the top 40? Only if you think this season has completely erased all his past seasons and scouting reports.
• Andrew Pinckney, as noted; nowhere to be seen despite being in AAA
• Andrew Alvarez, because being a serviceable AAA starter is meaningless.
• Elijah Green; ok well I can understand this based on his performance … but he’s still all tooled up right?
• No Armando Cruz? Lots of love for big bonus low-performers like Hurtado and Vaquero but not Cruz? Makes no sense.

Phew. It took them until July to release this list. Maybe they should just go with what they had in March; couldn’t be much worse.

Here’s the three month check-in with all our top 20 (and some) prospects. All seasonal stats as of 7/1/25, though the whole point of this article is to see how these players are doing in the last month. I’m a little late posting this … since we’ve had a ton of “news” happen, so I havn’t updated this post for anything that’s happened in the last nine days (like, for example, Cavalli getting shelled last night).

#1. Dylan Crews OF (CF): Missed all of May with oblique issue. Was not hitting well before hand. Temperature: on ice.

#2 Travis Sykora RHP (Starter): Just promoted to AA, his 2nd promotion in as many months. He’s our #1 prospect on all lists right now and it will be super interesting to see how he fares in AA. Temperature: red hot.

#3 Brady House SS/3B: Promoted to MLB, has basically been the starter at 3B. Slashed just .231/.268/.288 for the month of June. Not great. Not much power shown so far. Paul deJong just came off the DL (though his slash line is even worse) so I wonder what the team will do here. Temperature: Hot for making majors, not hot for his MLB performance so far.

#4 Jarlin Susana RHP (Starter). Zero news on his grade 1 UCL sprain; zero June activity.. Temperature: on ice.

# 5 Seaver King SS. took a big step back in June: .218/.259/.307. Is it possible he’s just too high in his first pro season? Maybe they should have left him in Wilmington (even if its an awful hitter’s park). Temperature: getting colder.

# 6 Yohandy Morales 1B/3B: has not taken to AAA pitching so far, slashing just .207/.289.331 in Rochester so far. Temperature: Warm for getting to AA at age 23, code so far in the league.

#7 Cayden Wallace 2B/3B: was awful in June: .169/.218/.211 for the month. Weren’t there some who thought this was a better 3B prospect than House this past off-season? Phew. Temperature: ice cold.

# 8 Cade Cavalli RHP (Starter): Five starts in AAA after finally returning from nearly 2 years out for TJ, and he’s not really impressing. Interestingly though Fangraphs just did a piece on him. He talks a ton about changes he’s making to his approach, introduction of new pitches, working on a 2-seamer, mixing up speeds, etc. I think his up and down results in AAA so far can be explained a bit, and I’m a bit less worried than others. If you’re in the anti-Cavalli camp right now, give this article a read and see if it changes your mind. Temperature: Warming up.

#9 Alex Clemmey LHP (Starter): His June was just as good as his May; 1.45 ERA, .197 BAA against. He’s already due for another promotion, and I wonder if he’s starting to put his name into consideration for some top-100 lists as a 19yr old dominating in High-A. Temperature: getting hot.

# 10 Robert Hassell III OF (CF): Got 21 games in the Majors when we had some OF issues, but struggled (.218/.228/269) and is now back in AAA. He continues to be a healthy hitter in AAA (OPS north of 1.000 in June), and hopefully gets another shot at the Majors soon. Temperature: hot for getting there, cold in MLB.

#11 Caleb Lomavita C: Solid June: .295/.371/.346. Love the OBP, wish for more power. He’s only 5′ 10″ so maybe a gap contact hitter is his ceiling. Temperature: Staying Warm.

# 12 Luke Dickerson SS/CF: It was great to see Dickerson quickly hit his way out of the complex league, but his time in Low-A so far has been a struggle. He’s slashing just .223/.327/.338 so far in F’burg. So, pump the brakes a bit. Also, remember that if he were playing by the D1 rules, he’d be taking his freshman summer in some random wood-bat league near his home in Jersey. Temperature: luke warm.

# 13 Andry Lara RHP (Starter): did a bunch of rehab starts in A-ball, then was optioned to AA instead of AAA (odd for a 40-man roster who pretty much proved he had solved AA last year) and promptly got shelled in his first game back. He’s now got a 10 ERA in AAA this year and a 20 ERA in AA. Is he still hurt? Temperature: very cold.

#14 Tyler Stuart RHP (Starter): his first month back in AA post injury did not go well: 5 games, 6 ERA, and now he’s back on the DL as of this writing. Harrisburg now has nearly an entire rotation on its DL (Susana, Stuart, Knowles, Atencio). Temperature: chilly.

#15 Daylen Lile OF (CF): his slash line in the majors so far (.221/.274/.338) hasn’t been great, but he’s the one they’ve kept up for now instead of the likes of Hassell, Yepez, Chapparo, Tena, etc. He’s getting playing time too, often at the expense of Young or Call oddly. Temperature: hot for getting there, cool in MLB

#16 Kevin Bazzell C/3B: continues to disappoint. .213/.367/.234 in June. He’s got zero power and isn’t hitting well enough to maintain his spot. Temperature: ice cold.

#17 Jake Bennett LHP (Starter): Bennett continues to be brought back slowly, doing just 3IP in each of his starts. So far he’s been nearly unhittable and efficient in these starts. Hoping to see him stretch out and get to AA by year’s end. Temperature: getting warmer.

#18 Brad Lord RHP (Starter/Reliever): fun fact: as of this writing Lord is 4th on the damn team in bWAR for the season. 3.28 ERA in 30 appearances/57 IP as of this writing. 18th round draft pick. What a win for the player dev and for the draft team. Temperature: Red Hot all around.

#19 Angel Feliz 3B/SS: cooled from his hot start, hitting just .238 in May. Still a win for getting to FCL after just one year in DSL. Temperature: cooled off

#20 Andrew Pinckney OF (Corner): struggling in AAA: .203/.329/.344 for June. Still getting starts in AAA, which is something positive for the 24yr old, but not doing much with it so far. Temperature: cold

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Notables #20 and above by the Level they mostly played in in June 2025.

In MLB:

• #35 Jackson Rutledge gave up 10 runs in 10 June MLB innings; that’s not going to cut it.
• #36 Cole Henry continues to hold his own in the MLB pen; his FIP flatters his ERA but he’s got a positive bWAR and that’s awesome for someone I was afraid was going to be out of baseball.

in AAA:

• #32 Darren Baker had a solid June in AAA: .317/.427/.400. If we manage to flip any of our MLB utility infielders Baker should get another shot.
• #38 Drew Millas hit well in AAA in June .286/.357/.469, which helped him get the call-up to the majors. This positive mention of Millas won’t
• Both our 1B/DH “prospects” Yepez and Chapparo are now back in AAA; #31 Chapparo probably losing out in a numbers game for now, but Yepez was DFA’d and outrighted in what probably is a dagger for his time with Washington.
• #41 Marquis Grissom Jr bounced back after a tough month after getting promoted; he’s in the Futures Game but probably not on merit.

In AA:

• #47 Phillip Glasser SS bounced back after a great April and an awful May with this June slash line: .329/.426/.482. Why hasn’t he moved up? Nowhere to play him: he’s played basically 2B and LF this year: AAA has too many 2B already (Baker, Lipscomb, Arruda) and too many guys who are limited to a corner OF/DH spot (Baker, Schnell, Yepez/Chapparo).
• #25 Kevin Made: wow; he’s alive. And crushing AA pitching: .352/.410/.444 in June. Phew. Not bad for a glove-first prospect. Why not move him up? Because Nasim Nunez is clogging the AAA SS position with his Mendoza line batting average. I dunno; maybe its time to cut bait here.

In High-A:

• #39 Sam Peterson got promoted and was basically High-A’s best hitter in June: .286/.370/.400.
• #88 Miguel Gomez cruised for the month in the closer role with a sub 1.00 ERA.

In Low-A:

• #90 Yoander Rivero was the teams’ best hitter in June … and just hit the DL.
• #96 Pablo Aldonis is making a name for himself in the bullpen.
• #42 Robert Cranz dominated again in June and just earned a promotion.

In FCL:

• #23 Elijah Green officially was sent to the FCL, hopefully to re-work everything. So far? .229/.386/.286. 13/9 K/BB in 12 games. Ok, so that’s an improvement. Interesting that he’s taking so many walks all of a sudden; is that wild pitching or is that him showing plate discipline as part of his reworking? The team has so much invested in him, it’ll be interesting to see what they come up with.
• #44 Jose Feliz, continues to remain one of the best starters in FCL.
• #45 Dashyll Tejeda, remains hot: .315/.351/.407 in June after similar numbers in May. Great to see.
• #72 Sir Jamison Jones: improved greatly this month; .308/.440/.615. Wow. Love those numbers. Another month and he’s gonna have to move up just like Dickerson did.

In the DSL, here’s how the first month went for the six DSL guys i’ve got on my top 100 list. These are all position players, ironic in that the strength of our DSL team right now seems to be its rotation.

• #22 Victor Hurtado, our big-money 2024 guy, not impressing yet again in 2025. .259/.429/.296. He’s listed as a corner OF; need to see more power here.
• #29 Brayan Cortesia has wasted no time making his introduction post signing in January: June: .440/.481/.520. He’s 11 for 25 with some doubles, so SSS but a solid start.
• #37 Daniel Hernandez, who’s starting to get some prospect love in other shops, struggling to start hitting just .213 for the month. Listed as a C when signing but a DH so far for DSL.
• #66: Rony Bello: .801 OPS to start the season.
• #70 Hector Liriano: hitting .152 as a 1B? that’s not going to cut it.
• #103 Juan Obispo is hitting .313 in very limited action so far.

There’s no more games to play, no more box scores to hyper analyze. All we have now is a series of scouting/draft pundits calling sources and writing prediction pieces.

I’m repeating this link block b/c shops are updating their Draft Board Ranks, as noted below

• MLBpipeline expanded top 250 Draft Board. updated 6/27/25
• Baseball America top 500 Board updated 6/25/25 (paywall)
• Keith Law top 100 Draft board, updated 7/1/25 (paywall I think)
• CBS Sports/RJ Anderson Top 30 Board 6/12/25
• Baseball Prospectus MLB Draft Big Board for 2025 posted 7/3/25 (paywall)
• Prospects1500 Top 250 Draft board released 7/7/25
• ESPN Full Draft coverage Home page, including links to all mocks, boards, etc.

Here’s a roundup of draft content I found interesting since the last time we posted, which was right after the CWS ended and we got our last look at potential 1-1 candidate Kade Anderson.

• D1Baseball.com released their 1st, 2nd, 3rd team All-American lists. The 1st team is littered with upper-1st round names we’ve talked about all spring (Anderson, Doyle, Bodine, etc). top 5 pick Arnold didn’t make the 1st team cut, even though he might get drafted ahead of some who did. James Quinn-Irons from George Mason by way of South Lakes HS in Reston was named as a first teamer after slashing .415/.520/.726 for the season; bravo.
• An interesting article in the Athletic on 6/27/25 by Sam Blum about the “fundamental problem” the MLB Draft Combine has, specifically that many of the top players have no incentive to show up. Blum reports from the combine that there’s almost zero scouts there despite hundreds of players doing drills and bp/pitching drills made for scouting opportunities. Why is this? Teams are almost entirely interested in exactly one thing here: MRIs of pitchers. Agents (Scott Boras the leading critic of course) point out that, while teams get MRIs they don’t get analysis, and they fear teams will misinterpret things and suddenly players drop out of the top 10 and out of guaranteed dollars. Fair points all.
• Along with the release of their latest updated Top 250 board, MLBPipeline lists the “best Tools” in the draft. I found the analysis interesting for one reason: while each of the guys who were given “Best Pitch” by pitch type are names we know, Kade Anderson not only didn’t win one of the “best of” titles … he wasn’t even listed amongst those considered for ANY of the categories. Yet he’s the top ranked arm on the board. Meanwhile, they give “best power” to Holliday, over the all-or-nothing LaViolette even and despite him being a prep kid who probably doesn’t completely fill out for years. Something to think about.
• MLBpipeline’s latest mock from Jonathan Mayo came along with all the 6/27/25 content (updated board, top tools, latest Mock). He goes Anderson, Doyle, Arquette, Holliday, Arnold. This, by the way, is the exact top 5 I’ve been predicting in the case where Anderson goes 1-1 instead of Holliday.
• ESPN (Kiley McDaniel and staff) posted their 6/30/25 mock, which had a slight twist in that they allowed for trading picks AND the pundits pick who they think the teams SHOULD be picking, not who they likely well pick. It’s a subtle but important distinction that led to a slightly different mock look. They went Anderson, Doyle, Arnold, Holliday, JoJo Parker.
• Baseball America’s v5.0 Mock Draft was released on 6/30/25 with info gleaned from the combine and the end of the college season. Anderson, Doyle, Arquette, Holliday, Willits
• MLBPipeline’s 7/1/25 email newsletter (free to subscribe to) had a quick “What if Teams drafted for need” mock, and it looked slightly different than the rest of these mocks: Anderson, Arnold, Hernandez, Holliday, Doyle. Arquette drops way down this list.
• Keith Law did a 7/2/25 chat (man, remember when everyone did weekly chats??) with a ton of draft questions and a ton of Nats questions about 1-1 in the wake of his updated and final Draft Board post on 7/1/25. Worth a read.
• Baseball Prospect Journal did a staff mock on 7/3/25. I’m still up in the air about this source and its value; is it just a couple of baseball nerds like me, or do they actually have insight? they go Holliday, Anderson, Arquette, Willits, Arnold. They have Doyle dropping to 8th.
• Obviously, the 7/6/25 news that the Nats have fired Mike Rizzo and Davey Martinez looms quite large over the draft preparations the team was making.
• Baseball America held a podcast on 7/7/25 where they did reaction to Rizzo’s firing and its potential impact on the draft. They did mention one interesting tidbit; they said that Rizzo was more old-school than his scouting director and scouting staff, most of whom he hired away from more system-driven teams like Arizona and Baltimore. These guys are going to favor younger and toolsier players than Rizzo might, and it may tip the scale towards Holliday at 1-1.
• Keith Law posted his Mock 3.0 just as I was publishing this post. Anderson, Doyle, Arquette, Holliday, and Willits. This is almost exactly who i’ve got if we go Anderson 1-1.

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My current prediction for the top 5: More and more I think we’ll go Holliday

If we pick Holliday, the top 5 prediction is:

• Holliday, Anderson, Arquette, Arnold, Willits.

If we pick Anderson, I think the top 5 goes like this:

• Anderson, Doyle, Arquette, Holliday (lock here if he doesn’t go 1-1), Arnold

I’m repeating this analysis from before on the teams in the top 5 and their proclivities with their 1st rounders, but i’ve added to it a bit as it helps guide the predictions:

1. Washington: likes “famous” guys and isn’t afraid to roll with Boras clients: this is the argument for Holliday. But, they love taking big body college arms with their first picks (a moniker that describes most of the 1st rounders in the Rizzo era), which screams either Anderson or Doyle. The post season performances of all three college arms re-configured where they stand; going into the playoffs it probably want Arnold-Doyle-Anderson. Coming out of the post-season, it’s Anderson-Arnold-Doyle. I believe Anderson has separated himself from the pack and is now a worthy 1-1 pick. We’d still get a haircut on him, which helps us later on.
2. Angels: want quick to the majors college guys; they hyper promote and have had a draftee be first to debut for each draft class for 3 years running. Their last six 1st rounders have all been college players. This screams polished college arm, and Doyle seems closest to the majors. Like, Doyle could be in their bullpen in September. If Anderson is available they take him, otherwise Doyle.
3. Seattle loves prep kids at the top; 5 of last 6 picks have been HSers, all bats, no prep arms. However, none of the analysts have them on a prep kid this year. Everyone has them on Arquette. It’s entirely possible they’re looking at the prep SS (Holliday, Willits, even Carson) and saying, “Arquette is 2yrs older and a ton better).
4. Colorado can’t get FA pitchers to come to Denver, so they have to grow them. Their last six 1st rounders have all been college, and 3 of the last 4 are arms. I think they pick Arnold or Doyle, whoever’s there (likely Arnold). That being said, if Holliday is available, this is his likely floor due to the family connection in Colorado. So, its either Holliday or whatever arm is left.
5. St. Louis has 4 straight college guys in 1st; I think they end up with Arnold, since it seems clear that Anderson and Arquette will be gone in any scenario. They (like the industry) seems to have soured on Doyle, so many have them plucking the next-best prep SS in Willits. If Arnold doesn’t go here, there’s a strong likelihood he drops nearly out of the top 10.

I just happened to have the MLB network on yesterday when shocking news broke: the Nats have fired both Manager Davey Martinez and long-time General Manager Mike Rizzo by way of a typical say-nothing milquetoast “ownership announcement” from the Lerner family citing the “need for a fresh approach.”

This is the same non-speak you hear when someone who’s been fired from their job says they “need to spend more time with their family.”

The main reason the timing was their contract options; both had 2026 options due this month. If the team wanted to go in a different direction, they had to be picked up by month’s end. Perhaps the simplest answer is this: Lerner’s already knew they wanted to go in a different direction this coming off-season and decided to cut bait now instead of on July 31st and have themselves two lame duck executives for the rest of the season. However, there’s a lot more to it, at least for Rizzo’s firing.

The timing of canning Rizzo is somewhat ridiculous. The team is in the middle of draft prep, a draft where they hold the #1 overall pick and have $16.5M to dole out. Not only that, but right after the draft, its trade season, where the GM has to wheel and deal to find the best moves for a failing team. Firing Rizzo this week is a complete indictment of the ownership group’s decision making, who, if they really truly believe Mike Rizzo is the reason this team is in last place and not themselves for holding back payroll, then they’re even more delusional than we thought. I can only think there’s more to this story w/r/t canning Rizzo today. GMs generally have a massive say in the top 2-3 picks of each draft, since they’re the most money and the highest-leverage negotiations, but then the Scouting Director mostly dictates the rest of the picks. So, whacking the GM now is still “bad,” but not quite as bad for the rest of the draft.

The larger issue considering Rizzo’s tenure here is a lot more understandable. We’ve discussed the relative failure of the Rizzo regime w/r/t both player development and drafting more and more lately. Rizzo has pretty much failed at picking an impact player in the 1st or 2nd round for a decade straight at this point, and the system’s overall failure to develop impact players has extended that entire time. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal crushed Rizzo and the team in late May for this same point: quoting that article, “… since 2013, the Nationals have drafted and developed only three players with career bWARs above 5.0. Those three — Nick Pivetta, Erick Fedde, Jesús Luzardo — made their marks with other teams.” That’s so bad as to be laughable. We’ve lived through years of failed 1st rounders and an even worse track record on 2nd rounders. Seth Romero may have been the nadir of Rizzo’s draft strategy, picking a known headcase AND paying him an above slot bonus was a move that the entire baseball industry predicted ahead of time how it would work out, correctly.

It’s fair to criticize Rizzo and his staff for this. But that’s not the entire reason the team is in last place, again. They’re spending a fraction of what it takes to compete in the NL east in 2025. If the Lerner’s actually, truly believe a $113M payroll should be in playoff contention this year, then they’re even more delusional than we thought.

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For Martinez, the writing may have been on the wall for a few weeks now after his ill-thought press conference throwing his players under the bus for performance. MLB Managers don’t have long careers anymore primarily for one reason: MLB players who earn multiple times the salary of the manager can only take so much “leadership” before they tune him out. Martinez is known as a “player’s manager,” meaning he takes a softer approach, an approach where he relies on his prior on-field experiences to say to players, “dude I used to play too, listen to my advice.” Player managers are the best … until they’re not. Then suddenly a losing team takes advantage, doesn’t heed advice, and suddenly you need to swing the pendulum far to the other side of Manager types and get yourself a “Task master.” If you look back at the recent history of our managers you can kind of see this swinging back and forth:

• Martinez: Player manager
• preceded by Dusty Baker, also a player manager but an old school cross over one
• preceded by Matt Williams, a task master
• preceded by Davey Johnson, definitely a player’s manager
• preceded by Jim Riggleman, a task master
• preceded by Manny Acta, a player’s manager
• preceded by Frank Robinson, absolutely an old school task master
• preceded by Felipe Alou, absolutely a player’s manager.

Anyway, you get the point. Prepare for this team to install some old-school A-hole who whips the team into shape.

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Unfortunately, the Nats made the wrong kind of news over the weekend, looking again like the inept, bumbling organization they have been long-considered in baseball circles. Let’s hope it doesn’t result in some ridiculous decision making at the 2025 draft.