A mid-April mailbag from Nats MLB.com beat reporter Jamal Collier. Probably spurred on by these ugly numbers: 6.00, 6.43, 3.18, 6.75, 10.80, 8.10, and 11.57. Those are the current (as of 4/18/17) ERAs of the seven “original” bullpen members of your 2017 Nationals. The only one under 6 is Koda Glover, and for completion I should add that NRI Matt Albers has managed to throw 3 clean innings to help keep the bullpen ERA down.
You may be saying to yourself, “Man, the Nats bullpen has been the worst in the majors!” You’re close, but wrong. There are several teams by any measure that have actually been worse than Washington, believe it or not. By ERA, there are 3 worse teams. By fWAR, there are 2 worse teams. And by FIP there’s one bullpen worse than ours. In every case, Philadelphia’s bullpen has been even worse. So we have that going for us.
Lets get to the question. As always, I answer the question before reading Collier’s answer and sometimes edit questions for clarity.
Q: Why is the bullpen struggling?
A: Because its mid-April, because everything is Small Sample Sizes (SSS), because the Nats struck lightening in a bottle in 2016 while completely remaking their bullpen on the fly but may have struck out this year. Here’s the opening day roster bullpens over the last few years to highlight just how much turnover we’ve had:
- 2013: Soriano, Storen, Clippard, Mattheus, Stammen, Rodriguez, Duke
- 2014: Soriano, Clippard, Storen, Stammen, Blevins, Barrett, Detwiler
- 2015: Storen, Janssen, Stammen, Thornton*, Cedeno*, Barrett, Roark
- 2016: Papelbon, Treinen, Kelley, Belisle, Perez*, Rivero*, Petit
- 2017: Treinen, Kelley, Glover, Blanton, Solis*, Romero*, Perez*
- From 2013->2014: 4 holdovers, 3 new guys
- From 2014->2015: 3 holdovers, 4 new guys.
- From 2015->2016: 0 holdovers, 7 new guys
- From 2016->2017: 3 holdovers, 4 new guys
Frankly, the fact that a 100% remade bullpen was so successful last year was amazing. Perhaps now we’re seeing the downside of this lack of consistency.
I trust most of the guys in the 2017 bullpen, based on prior history. I think I know what to expect out of Treinen, Kelley, Glover, Blanton, Solis and Perez. Romero we all knew is/was a lottery ticket, and he may be DFA fodder soon. Albers the NRI could be this year’s Todd Coffey; a successful middle reliever who we got for peanuts. I think we just need some time.
That being said, lets look role by role and ask ourselves if we think this year’s bullpen is “better” than last.
- Will Treinen (as closer) be better than Papelbon? I like his chances.
- Will Kelley repeat his success of 2016? No reason not to think so
- Will Glover give the team what Treinen did last year? I’m confident.
- Is Blanton better than Belisle? Undoubtedly yes.
- Can Solis match Rivero’s lefty production? Seems like it based on what he did last year
- Is Perez the same guy he was last year? Probably.
- Can Romero be as bad as Petit was last year? Yeah, he probably could.
Maybe you don’t agree with me on these quick takes … but on a general level the message is this: the bullpen this year should be just as good as last year’s.
Collier delves into FIP to find some unluckiness, also notes its SSS. And he notes that its a MLB-wide trend; bullpens are awful everywhere for some reason this year.
Q: How much rope does Blake have left? Is he staying put only because the other options have also struggled?
A: See above: its April 18th. Treinen has 4 save opportunities, blew one (where he gave up just one hit to blow it), but his most recent outing was an ugly one necessitating some Bryce Harper heroics. My choice to close would have been Shawn Kelley honestly; more experience, more swing and miss stuff, more proven capabilities of getting guys out on both sides of the plate. But the team chose otherwise, mostly due to Kelley’s twice-repaired elbow and the need to go back to back nights. Ask yourself; how often do we need a closer to go back to back nights? Lets look at last year’s closer Mark Melancon and count how many times he pitched in back to back games for the entirety of 2016: I counted 16 times in 75 appearances. And in most of those cases, he then got several days off. I just can’t believe Kelley’s arm is SO FRAGILE that he can’t throw back to back nights.
Do you know how many times Kelley threw on back-to-back days in 2016? Take a guess. 13 times. So 13 times last year (or nearly as many as the closer Melancon) Kelley threw on back to back days, but suddenly in 2017 he’s too fragile to depend on to throw back to backs as the closer.
To get back to the question; I’m sure Glover will be closing sooner or later. It was always looking that way. How much rope does Treinen have? Probably at least til mid May.
Collier says its early, that while Treinen has had some issues there’s no change coming anytime soon.
Q: Who do you see as potential options in the Minors in case the current bullpen members don’t figure things out and changes need to be made?
A: Great question. When Albers got called and added to the active roster, it was a severe indictment of all remaining 40-man roster relievers. That’s be Rafael Martin, Trevor Gott, Austin Adams, and to a lesser extent Jimmy Cordero and Matt Grace. The first three guys are right handed options, all with MLB experience, all passed over for a guy the team signed for nothing. That tells me that the team has little to no trust in any of those three guys at the major league level right now. So who might the team call upon? Here’s some thoughts:
- From AAA: Adams is the only guy having a halfway decent season thus far; in 7 2/3rds innings he’s given up just 1 hit (!), walked 6, struck out 12. The team just re-signed Joe Nathan but I sincerely hope he’s not a legitimate option.
- From AA; the 5 best guys by WHIP are … the five starters. So that’s good I guess. Braulio Lara was an offseason MLFA with a lot of AAA time; he’s got decent AA stats right now and could be an option to move up, but not straight to the majors for me. Then there’s Ryan Brinley, who is sharing in closing duties but is young and is a total lottery ticket; a 27th rounder from 2015 who is a shock to have even made it this far. 40-man member Cordero is down here… and has a 19.62 ERA right now. Nice.
- From XST: there’s three potentially interesting names that could make sense for the bullpen: Derek Eitel, John Lannan, and Josh Outman. Eitel had solid AAA numbers last year and has been around for a while (age 29); he might be an option to look for. Outman has parts of 7 years MLB experience, some starting, some relieving and could be an option. Lastly, the new side-slinger Lannan could be a back-fill for an under-performing Loogie.
I guess the other option would be to take a starter from AAA or AA and bring him up in relief. But the AAA starters are really struggling right now. Hill is getting bombed, Voth has given up 15 hits in just 6 1/3 innings, Cole walked 5 guys in his first start, and Turner has a 1.73 whip through 2 turns. And none of these guys are really known for their blazing fastballs; they’re all command and control starters. The AA starters look better than the AAA starters, but a couple of them strategically have to stay as starters (namely Erick Fedde and Austen Williams, John Simms to a lesser extent). Jaron Long and Greg Ross are both MLFA signings who the team may not have as much invested in … perhaps they could be put into shorter relief modes and considered for bullpen spots. But that’s digging deep.
In other words … there’s not a lot of reinforcements that the team trusts right now. The MLB bullpen will be given plenty of rope to straighten themselves out.
Collier mentions Albers’ success, Nathan signing, Cotts, Adams and Gott.