Nationals Arm Race

Harper, not quite showing the massive target on his back. Photo: Drew Angerer/The Washington Times

With another “incident” involving Bryce Harper hitting the airways, and another round of media members using no originality or doing any analysis and immediately judging Harper based on his “make-up,” I thought i’d comment.  This relates to a benches-clearing incident at West Virginia on 4/26/11.

Here’s two video links of the latest incident.  One from the RF stands, another from behind the plate (thanks to Zuckerman’s natsinsider site and csnwashington.com).  Watch very closely the first video; the strikeout occurs, Harper stands in place dropping his equipment, and while showing no reaction, no emotion and saying nothing the plate umpire advances towards the opposing pitcher, takes off his mask, and starts to tell him (the opposing pitcher) to back off.  Only after all this happens does Harper hear some “magic words” and react. By which time both benches were starting to run towards each other.  There was no brawl, just some general milling around.

Now you tell me: how is that POSSIBLY Harper’s inciting anything?  Yes, perhaps it started with Harper’s solo shot in the first, with him and the catcher clearly trading words.  Again; who is to say who said what to whom first?  For all we know Harper may have been talking trash, and for all we know the catcher may have said something along the lines of, “lucky hit you punk*ss” to Harper as he crossed the plate.

Because of his bonus, his precociousness, his 40-man roster spot, his SI cover and his accomplishments to date, Harper has such a massive target on his back that its almost impossible to judge these incidents unless you’re there, one the field, taking in the whole context of the incident.  It is absolutely unfair to post stories about what happened in Charleston with headlines like, “Harper sparks brawl in minor league game.” Then starts the whole nonsense about his “makeup.”  Each incident gives National pundits more ink to post their “concerns” over his make up, his maturity, blah blah.

People want to talk about the kid’s “makeup.”  Fine; lets talk about it.  Lesse; he graduated high school 2 years early, he’s devoutly Morman and reportedly has never drank, smoked, chewed or otherwise caroused in his life (how many of these stud-athletes-all-their-privileged-lives can say that?).  He’s got an incredible work ethic and has yet to show one iota (as far as I can tell) of behavior that indicates he’s resting on his laurels or that he’s entitled to anything that he has been given.  The Washington Post magazine did a fantastic article on Harper, his family and his upbringing a few months back, and I dare any reader to come away from that article with anything but the utmost respect for this kid and his family.

He had two ejections in his college season; one was clearly, absolutely the result of his jealous opposing team lobbing baseballs at him and doing other bush league BS in the pre-game to try to get his goat.  The second ejection was a ridiculous over-reaction from an umpire who couldn’t wait to show this hot-shot kid who was boss after he made an egregiously bad 3rd strike call (on a ball that may have been in the opposing batters box it was so far outside).  Harper didn’t slam his helmet, he didn’t turn around an scream at the umpire; he showed some displeasure over the call and then drew a line in the dirt.

You watch the videos and make your own conclusions.

Perhaps you can argue something along the lines of, “well he should know better.  He should turn the other cheek and take all this abuse because he should know how the media is going to spin it.”  Really?  At the age of 17, during your senior year of high school, were YOU that world-weary and have that kind of wisdom?  I seriously doubt it.  The problem with the media’s TMZ-esque coverage of our young athletes these days is that we continually forget that, well, they’re KIDS.  If you did something dumb as a 21yr old, well you’re a dumb*ass 21-yr old.  If a 21-yr old 2nd year NBA player does something dumb, its yet another example of a privileged athlete setting a bad example for kids who look up to him.  It is never fair reporting, and never takes into account the realities of any of the situations these kids find themselves in.

As it stands, yeah Harper probably will continue to get into jawing matches with guys who are jealous of where he has gotten himself so early and so well.  Its human nature to covet that which you so desperately want but do not yet have.  And yeah, perhaps Harper needs to turn the other cheek better.  But to blame him for these incidents and lay them at his feet whenever he naturally stands up for himself is just lazy reporting.

I’m a Harper fan.  I’m continually amazed at what he accomplishes at his age.  His college season was amazing.  So far in low-A he’s recovered from a slow-start and is currently hitting .323/.425/.645.  Playing against guys routinely 3-4 years older than him.  If he were any other normal baseball prospect in the country, he’d be finishing up his senior year in high school and getting ready for the draft.  Instead, he’s tearing up low-A ball and may very well end up in Potomac on the fast track to the majors before his 18th birthday.  All that being said, I WANT confidence and swagger out of my future slugger.  The clean-up hitter is never a soft-spoken, lead by example guy.  It is always the ego-driven, confident big-hitter who leads the way offensively for his team.

But lets try to put things in context before we judge him.

Is Brian Bixler the savior of the Nats offense? We'll see. Photo: Al Bello/Getty Images North America via zimbio.com

Most of the Nats beat reporters are posting that Jesus Flores is getting sent back down to AAA and that infielder Brian Bixler is getting the call-up.  Flores just hasn’t been getting at bats (2 pinch hitting appearances in 10 days) and he needs to get playing time if we’re going to parlay him into anything of value on the trade market.

Meanwhile, we know that Ian Desmond is imminently going on paternity leave and we’ll need a middle infielder to cover for him (since we’re already using one of our backup infielders Jerry Hairston Jr on a full time basis covering for the injured Ryan Zimmerman).

Bixler has merited a look, having played well in Spring Training and having hit pretty well down in Syracuase thus far (.326/.483/.370 in 46 plate appearances).  Maybe he’ll even feature at lead-off for a bit with such a great OBP.

Here’s the problem: Bixler’s not on our 40-man roster.  He’ll need to be added, and someone will need to be dropped off.  We’ve already dumped all three guys that we could onto the 60-day roster (Strasburg, Elvin Ramirez and Wang) and none of the 15-day DL guys would make sense.  So it looks like someone’s getting the axe.  Here’s your top candidates and my guess

1. Atahualpa Severino: He lost out on the Loogy role in the spring, and then presumably lost out on the loogy role in AAA as well.  He’s currently on the minor league “DL” but nobody heard of any injury to the guy towards the end of spring training.  We brought in Hyde and have converted Chico to situational lefties in Syracuse, making Severino pretty obsolete.  I’m guessing he’s the most expendible.
2. Lee Hyde: see my commentary in my latest minor league pitching review for why Hyde may be on the chopping block.  He was a late spring waiver acquisition from Atlanta and has been awful in Syracuse thus far.  His saving grace is that he’s a lefty.
3. Garrett Mock: his latest outing in Syracuse gives him 17 walks in 11 1/3 AAA innings in 2011.  He may get a stay of execution this time around, but I have to think his days are numbered on the 40-man.
4. Chad Gaudin: so far he’s been the least effective pitcher in our bullpen (further commented upon in my latest good/bad/indifferent post).  He may be safe for now, but may be released when both Coffey and Rodriguez are healthy and need 25-man spots at the same time.

Prediction: Severino makes way, passes through waivers and stays in extended spring training.  Unless there’s some rule about dropping a guy on your DL; if so I’d guess they would re-instate him briefly to AAA then DFA him or outright release him.

4/23/11 Update: The Nationals announced they have designated Lee Hyde for assignment, ending his Nationals tenure after just a few weeks.

Side note on the Paternity policy as it relates to the 40-man machinations: I believe the paternity leave allows a team to place a player on a temporary restricted list, which temporarily removes him from the 40-man roster.  I am having a hard time finding the actual text of the new policy; all I can find is that it is good for 24-72 hours and allows a team to replace the player on the active roster.  I would have to think that the replacement player would already have to be on the 40-man roster, so we’d still need to make a corresponding 40-man move.

Espinosa is carrying the team right now.

If I had a steady stream of questions coming in, I’d have my own mailbox edition.  As it stands though, I’ll just provide my own answers to the questions that MLB.com’s Nationals beat writer Bill Ladson selects for his semi-weekly mailbag.

Q: What’s the long-term plan for the leadoff spot? Danny Espinosa has a lot of power and deserves to be in the middle of the lineup.

A: I guess that depends on what the definition of “long term” is.  If long-term means the rest of the season, then I agree with Ladson’s assertion that Danny Espinosa is the best player we have for the lead-off spot.  He’s a switch hitter, is making good contact and can get on base better than any of the other candidates (.364 for the season thus far).  In a limited sample size last year he didn’t show this kind of patience; how quickly he’s made the adjustment to major league pitching. Theoretically we do have a prospect in Corey Brown in AAA acquired just for this purpose, and in prior AA seasons he’s shown 20-20 capabilities and good defense in center.  However he’s struggling in AAA this year (as he did last year) and he may not be an option this season.

I advocated the replacement of Nyjer Morgan in the off season, but quality leadoff-center field candidates don’t grow on trees in the Majors.  I did a quick review of all the starting CFs in the league for analysis purposes in this post about Harper and came up wanting.  I was hoping that Roger Bernadina would blossom into the role but he faltered at every step this spring training.

In the real “long-term” (i.e. 3-4 years from now) we seem to be grooming Bryce Harper to play center, so we don’t necessarily have to worry about finding a prototypical fast, defense-first, high OBP center fielder to fit into the lead off spot.  Not all lead-off hitters have to be no-power, run-first guys; Richie Weeks is doing just fine leading off for Milwaukee right now.

Personally, I agree that Espinosa could fit into this team better as a middle of the order guy, but our 3-4-5 long term is mostly set (Zimmerman-Harper-Werth).  Espinosa makes a ton of sense as a table setter, as does Desmond, so putting those guys 1-2 makes the most sense.

Q: Given his persistent shoulder problems so far this year, if Adam LaRoche has to spend time on the disabled list this season, what do you think the corresponding move by the Nats will be? Will we see Michael Morse at first base, with Roger Bernadina being called up?

A:  Ladson’s answer was to bring Bernadina up and put Morse at first.  I doubt that would happen; more likely we’d see Laynce Nix getting starts in LF with Morse at first.  Unless of course Morse continues to forget how to hit, at which point we may have to get creative.  We only have FOUR non-pitchers on the 40-man roster right now who aren’t either on the DL or in the majors; Chris Marrero, Bernadina, Harper, and Chris Brown.  Thats it; we have so little non-pitcher flexibility that continued injuries may really kill us this year.

That being said, I’ve personally played with a fully blown SLAP lesion and, while it is incredibly painful to throw, LaRoche is a first baseman who has to make a high-leverage throw perhaps once or twice a week.  Unless he manages to fully blow his rotator cuff, he should be able to gut out the season and have surgery in October.

Q: I asked Rizzo at the NatsFest why Bernadina and Matt Chico weren’t on the Major League roster and he didn’t give a solid answer. I can’t see any reason why these guys aren’t here. Do you agree?

A: The Nats were lucky (in my opinion) to retain Matt Chico after he was DFA’d in December 2010.  I was surprised by the move honestly; usually mid-20s lefties with any track record in the majors are coveted.  He now seems to be remaking himself as a lefty specialist and should compete or replace Doug Slaten in case of injury or poor performance.

Bernadina (as has been said elsewhere) lost out on the LF job, then CF job, then 4th outfielder job in spring training.  One may argue that the Nats chose to keep Nix over Bernadina more for options purposes and perhaps to leverage Nix into trade bait (since he fared so well in the Spring), but perhaps Nix just flat out impresses Riggleman more.  They’re both lefties, both play left field, but Nix is a bopper and can get the big hit. Bernadina had 460 at bats in 2010 to state his case and he didn’t.

Q: Any news on left-hander Oliver Perez?

A: Baseball America reported that Perez was placed on the minor league DL, but I (as does Sue Dinem over at www.nationalsprospects.com I suspect) think this is one of those “soft tissue” injuries that is meant to stash a player in Viera.  that being said, I’d agree with Ladson’s answer that he’s probably working with our pitching staff and trying to get back the form that earned him his big contract in the first place.  This is a complete low-risk signing for the Nats; its found money if they ever get anything from him.

Q: When is Wilson Ramos going to be the everyday catcher? Ivan Rodriguez’s offensive numbers are not good.

A: Boy, its going to be awful tough for Riggleman to bench a future Hall of Famer.  But Ramos seems like he’s stating his case with the bat every time he plays.  It is nice to have suddenly found a power hitter in a spot (catcher) that we’ve been batting 8th for years.  I’m guessing that Pudge the pro will recognize that he’s hurting the team and bite his tongue.

Q: I don’t want to get rid of Ian Desmond, but it’s clear to me and most people watching feel that he is not the answer at shortstop. When will management move him to second or Triple-A Syracuse and put Espinosa in the place he was supposed to be all along — shortstop?

A: Hear, hear!  I completely agree.  Desmond may in fact have a better arm but he is making mistakes left and right, and not just errors.  I would guess that another 35 error season will see these two switch places in spring training 2012.

Q: I am so incredibly confused why Riggleman falls in love with veterans that quite frankly look like they are past their prime.

A: If this questioner thinks Riggleman falls in love with veterans, then he must have been going psychotic watching Frank Robinson play Cristian Guzman every day for 5 months with a sub .200 batting average in 2006.  I agree with Ladson; having vets on the bench who understand their roles and serve as assistant coaches is far better than having Alberto Gonzalez whining about his playing time when clearly he wasn’t better than our options on the field.

Is Ankiel the solution for the Nats in center field? Photo by Al Bello/Getty Images via federalbaseball.com

Editors note: I was out of town last weekend and had this queued up but never hit publish :-).

MLB’s Nationals beat writer Bill Ladson hasn’t done an inbox for a few weeks, probably because he’s been busy at spring training.  Now that the regular season has started and we’ve had some debatable 25-man roster decisions made, he has published another edition of his Inbox column.  Here’s how i’d answer the questions he selects…

Q: What are you most worried about with the Nationals in 2011?

A: I’d say, in order, offense, the starting rotation, center field, and the back end of the bullpen.  I feel like we took a step backwards in terms of offense, we have improved the rotation over last year but still would probably rank this rotation 28th or 29th in the league, that Rick Ankiel in center field doesn’t really help us a ton, and that Drew Storen had such a rough spring that our end-of-game scenarios may be challenging.

Q: How do you think the Nationals will fare this season in the National League East with their off-season signings?

A: Probably the same as last year; last place.  Philadelphia and Atlanta are probably playoff bound no matter how many injuries the Phillies sustain.  Florida is probably taking a step side ways, having lost Uggla but picked up Vazquez (honestly, I don’t see how their fans don’t revolt at their perennial 87 win team doesn’t spend the $10 needed to improve themselves to be a 92 win team and challenge for the wild card).  The Nats may finish above the Mets, if only because that franchise is in such disarray right now.  They’re eating more than $20M in salary for players they’ve already released, they made no significant off-season moves and there’s serious injury question marks around 4 of their 5 best paid players (Santana, Beltran, Bay and Francisco Rodriguz).  I can see that time imploding badly and the Nats sneaking ahead of them for 4th place, maybe.

Q: If Bryce Harper has an amazing year in the Minors, is there a chance he will get a Major League callup?

A: They shouldn’t … but they may.  I would not be surprised to see the kid rocket through low-A and high-A ball.  It would be purely a late-season revenue grab to call him up, but they need to be careful on his service time accrual.  If he plays 30 days in September we’d have to keep him down an extra 30 days in 2012 to ensure he doesn’t become a super-2.  For those not clear on the implications of super-2 screwup, read this bit about the mistake the Giants made with Tim Lincecum.

That being said, i’d love to see him playing in the bigs before his 19th birthday.  That’d be fantastic.  And he may very well earn it.  His weakness in the AFL and in spring training was offspeed pitches, but its hard to fault the kid for wanting to swing and make something happen in the limited time he’s seen.  Once a full season gets going and he’s getting 4 ABs every night, he will learn patience, he will earn walks as pitchers work around him, and he’ll pick his spots.  This, more than anything else, is the lesson he needs to learn to advance in the minors.

Q: Do we see a parallel developing between Roger Bernadina and Justin Maxwell? How long do we have to wait?

A: It isn’t a bad parallel to note.  Bernadina lost the LF job, then the CF job, then the 4th outfielder job to a non-roster invitee.  He’s burning his last option as we speak.  He has a career 80 OPS+.  I openly questioned in this space why he was the presumed starter in LF all off-season, and as it turned out I was right about Morse being the better player.  I think he’ll play out the string in AAA this year and get traded for a low-level minor leaguer at the end of spring training 2012, just as we did with Morgan and Gonzalez this week.

Q: What do you think of the job general manager Mike Rizzo and manager Jim Riggleman have done since they took over in 2009?

A: I think Rizzo has done a decent job with the major league team and a pretty good job with the farm system.  I feel like he’s tried a little TOO hard to rid the team of the non-defensive hitters Willingham and Dunn, and could have gotten more for them.  I understand the Werth signing but think (like the rest of baseball) that he overpaid and strangely backloaded the contract (why back load instead of front load?  We’re actually at LESS payroll this year than last, so we could be paying him $20M this year instead of $10M and still look like we’re treading water).  He’s definitely assembled a team in his vision; defensively gifted, a bullpen full of power arms.  Next step; power rotation.

Riggleman is doing the best with what he has; I don’t believe other managers could do much better.  Most people believe we have probably the 28th or 29th best collection of talent in the majors, but we’re achieving better than 29th place.

Q: Besides Harper, which rookie impressed you during Spring Training?

A: I cannot disagree with Ladson’s selection of Cole Kimball as “most impressive rookie.”  I would not be surprised to see him called up in 2011 and to start getting high-leverage appearances.

Did we really need a .232 pinch hitter who can't play the field? Photo Carlson/AP via nydailynews.com

As the Nats are breaking camp, they’ve announced a flurry of roster moves that are setting up the team for its opening day.  And, in a series of moves reminiscent to 2009’s opening day roster, we’re breaking camp not necessarily with the best guys on our 25-man roster, but with the best team option status (or lack of them) can assemble.

As the title of this post suggests, I understand the logic of these decisions but don’t necessarily like what it means for the team.  I think we’re weaker than we could be, and we’re keeping around veterans with no long term place for this team instead of playing guys who deserve to be on the MLB squad.  I think it sends a bad message to guys who deserve to be playing but who will be heading to Syracuse.

Both Collin Balester and Roger Bernadina seem to have missed out on roster spots so that the team would not lose players who may have trade value in Chad Gaudin and Laynce Nix respectively.

For some reason, we’re keeping Matt Stairs instead of a player who can actually help off the bench.  As pointed out by Ben Goessling, this also means that our bench is incredibly lefty-heavy and we’ll struggle with matchups later in games. Isn’t Rizzo obsessed with defense?  How does Stair’s lack of *any* discernable defensive capability fit in with his overall vision for this team?  Another Natsmosphere twitter-er asked this good question; if Adam LaRoche‘s shoulder puts him on the DL; who exactly is the backup first baseman out of this group of bench players?

So, for our final 25-man roster we’re using 4 non-roster invitees.  Gaudin makes the team and probably deserved it.  Nix makes the team and seems to be trade bait.  Stairs makes the team for some reason or another.  And Alex Cora probably (deservedly) makes the team as Alberto Gonzalez‘s replacement (who we’ve traded to San Diego for a pretty good prospect considering we would have DFA’d him in 3 days…).

I guess if we obtain prospects for Gaudin or Nix in a trade later on this season, then it would be worth the options burn on Balester and Bernadina.  I hope so; along with Detwiler and Mock, 2011 represents their final option year.

Nats fans have seen their last Nyjer Morgan tantrum

Just two days after it became rather clear that Morgan was not going to win the starting Center Field job, Rizzo dealt the player to Milwaukee for low-level infield prospect Cutter Dykstra and some cash.  Nice move by Rizzo, taking a guy we were probably going to release in a few days and getting something (anything) in return.  Dykstra is a younger player but he’s a 2nd round pick who has put up decent numbers in the lower minor leagues thus far.  Keith Law says he’s no more than an Organizational player, but something is better than nothing.

Morgan should be happy with the deal; he may not start in Milwaukee but at least he’s now on a contender instead of being a 30-yr old in AAA.

One could argue the Nats were a bit hasty on the decision; Morgan had turned around his spring, rebounding from a slow start to post a .241/.328/.315 line for the spring.  Perhaps giving him a month into the regular season to see if he could return to 2009 form would have been the right thing to do.  Unfortunately, a log-jam of outfielders in camp that were outperforming Morgan were pressing the team’s hand.

Morgan’s trade means we have no real lead-off hitter.  We probably go with Desmond but he only had a .308 obp last year.  We will replace Morgan in the outfield with a platoon between Rick Ankiel and Jerry Hairston, Jr, neither of which really is a long term solution.  We also seem set to keep Laynce Nix after his great spring, meaning that Bernadina loses the options game and will go to AAA.  My guess is that we’re keeping Nix solely to trade him and get something in value, and Bernadina should be right back up.

My guess on what happens next is something like the following: Ankiel struggles at the plate, we trade Nix and Bernadina returns to the majors as the 4th outfielder.  Then, Corey Brown recovers from his ankle issues, gets healthy in AAA, hits well and gets called up to be the new leadoff/center fielder around mid June.

One nice side-effect of the deal is the freeing up of a roster spot.  Since it is looking more and more likely that we’re keeping 2 and perhaps 3 non-roster invitees we need to make some 40man moves.  Gaudin and Nix, perhaps Stairs seem to have made this team.  We’re at 39/40 now with the Morgan move.  I can see Wang going to the 60-day DL to free up one spot but an extra spot for Stairs is tough.  Perhaps we 60-day DL Elvin Ramirez.  We could just return him flat out (though I’m not sure you are allowed to return an injured rule5 guy).  We could also look to DFA someone; Severino may be expendable with the acquisition of lefty specialist Lee Hyde.

The Best #2 hitter in the league. Photo by Mitchell Layton/Getty Images North America)

The Nats apparently want to bat Werth 2nd.  At the beginning of Spring Training the plan seemed to be a lineup like this:

• Morgan-Desmond-Zimmerman-Werth-LaRoche-Morse-Espinosa-Catcher-Pitcher

which would be

• L-R-R-R-L-R-S-R-Pitcher.

This lineup was very righty heavy and with the problem of putting 3 straight right handed hitters at 2-3-4.

If Werth bats 2nd, I suppose our lineup now goes (in fact, this is more or less the lineup going today 3/26/11, with injury substitutions for Werth and LaRoche).

• Desmond-Werth-Zimmerman-LaRoche-Morse-Ankiel-Espinosa-Catcher-Pitcher

which would be

• R-R-R-L-R-L-S-R-Pitcher.

Well, how exactly does this help?  You still have three straight right-handed guys in your lineup.  And 5 of 8 hitters to boot.  We’d allow loogy matchups to eat us up in games and would still be susceptible against lefty starters.  What we need is to go with something like this:

• Desmond-Espinosa-Zimmerman-LaRoche-Werth-Ankiel-Morse-Catcher-Pitcher

which would be

• R-S-R-L-R-L-R-R-Pitcher.

or perhaps this lineup:

• Bernadina-Desmond-Zimmermann-LaRoche-Werth-Morse-Espinosa-Catcher-Pitcher

which would be

• L-R-R-L-R-R-S-R-Pitcher.

Both these later lineups are more balanced and split up the lefty-righty combos.  Of course, Espinosa isn’t ready for the #2 spot and Bernadina isn’t the ideal leadoff hitter.  So we really can’t go with these lineups from the onset.

The Nats really needed Morgan to own the leadoff and center field position this year.  By losing him we have no natural leadoff hitter any longer.  Desmond really is a #2 hitter.  It is one of the reasons I advocated for an attempted trade for someone like Jacoby Ellsbury back in the middle of the off-season.

Perhaps the solution is one Corey Brown, slated to start in AAA.  He plays center field, shows pretty good 20-20 like numbers career in the minors, and has a great OBP.  His slash line between AA and AAA for 2010 was .283/.370/.466 with 15 homers and 22 Sbs.  That sounds like a fantastic CF/leadoff options.  Oh, and he bats lefty too.  Maybe that Willingham trade wasn’t so bad after all if Brown can show some MLB value.

Commenter Mark L, in response to my statement that (paraphrased) the 2011 Nationals cannot afford to keep rule 5 picks on this team, pointed out that the team really has little chance of competing in 2011 and thus it is really the perfect time to be keeping and testing rule5 guys.

In theory I agree with this premise w.r.t. keeping rule 5 guys.  We’re not going to win the pennant in 2011.

I think in reality though the team has gone mostly backwards since arriving here in 2005 and cannot afford to ever seem as if they’re not trying to make progress.  I blame a lot of that on Bowden’s obsession with former Reds and tools-y players who became such a nightmare to integrate as a team that Acta had to be scuttled as a manager in favor of the more old-school Riggleman. The team lost the entirety of good will and excitement that came with a new stadium and the Lerners as owners had to be shocked at how quickly they destroyed their season ticket base (most observers believe they’ve lost more than half their season ticket holders just from 2009!). So the team is just not in a position to play for the future any more; they have to appear to be improving the team even marginally for the next few years to put themselves in a better position financially.

If the team was really playing for 2013 (as, say, the KC Royals clearly are), they’d never have even brought in the likes of Ankiel, Coffey, Hairston, basically every mid-career veteran and go completely with a lineup of prospects and these rule5 guys.   Arguably they wouldn’t have spent the money on Werth either.  What would the 25-man roster really look like without any FA signings?  Lets take a look:

• Catchers: Pudge, Ramos (remember, they *had* to get Pudge b/c of the state of their catcher depth pre 2010).  If you like, you can replace Pudge with someone like Flores or even Maldonado, since Norris is not ready for the majors in 2011.

• Infield: Marrero, Espinosa, Desmond, Zimmerman backed up by Gonzalez and Lombardozzi.  This would have required a serious leap of faith on the readiness of Marrero for 2011, and we’d be rushing Lombardozzi to the majors.  Perhaps we would have replaced Lombardozzi with Bixler.

• Outfield: Bernadina, Morgan, Burgess, Morse and CBrown.  I know Burgess was traded, but perhaps the team keeps him and installs him in right field knowing they wouldn’t have Werth.  Perhaps Burgess and Morse compete for right field and we bring up newly acquired CBrown as the 5th outfielder.

• Starters: Maya, Detwiler, Livan, Lannan, Zimmermann.  I leave Livan in here if only because we signed him to such a sweetheart deal.  If we don’t count Livan, we’re looking at someone like Stammen, Mock, Detwiler or Chico in that 5th spot.  Or perhaps we use Broderick as the 5th starter instead of putting him in long relief.

• Relievers: Storen, Clippard, Burnett, Slaten, Broderick, HRodriguez and Carr/Kimball (with ERodriguez on DL).  Our bullpen would have hard throwers at the back end and we’d immediately give AFL hero Kimball or Carr a shot.

Of this active roster, 17-18 would be on pre-arbitration salaries and the total payroll would probably be in the $28-30M range for the entire team. It’d be the “right” thing to do but the town would absolutely howl in protest.

I dunno. I go back and forth as a fan. Part of me says screw 2011, play the kids, see what they can do this year and regroup for 2012 when you can have a very good Strasburg-Zimmermann 1-2 punch to go along with general improvement across the rest of our younger guys.  The other part of me says that incremental growth in terms of wins and respectability for this team is just as important in terms of attracting free agents and enabling the team to make a quick leap in a couple years. If this team can win 75 games this year, Strasburg comes back and probably improves the team 5 wins just by himself, we acquire an incrementally better #3 pitcher and hope that Maya, Detwiler and our rising AAA guys become real major league options. If you’re a 81 win team a couple of key free agent signings coupled with the natural rise of our core up and coming players can improve the team 10-12 wins very quickly. Suddenly we’re a 90 win team and still have a manageable payroll to augment and take the next steps to rise above Atlanta and Philadelphia in the division.

That’s “the plan,” right?

Is Morgan's time running short with the Nats?

I know its early in the spring, and I know that we’re only three games in, but I wonder if the team is seriously considering whether or not Nyger Morgan is the presumed starter in CF.  Jim Riggleman was quoted as saying (paraphrased) that if the season started today, Morgan is his center-fielder.

Last season was a disaster for Morgan.  Behavioral issues, the brawls, the suspensions, the antics in the outfield, plus his serious regression at the plate.  His slash line for 2010 was .253/.319/.314.  Two things jump out there; his slugging percentage was LOWER than his OBP, and his OBP was ridiculously low for a supposed table-setting lead-off hitter.  Even his defense regressed (per UZR/150 rankings) from his stellar 2009 season.

Meanwhile, Michael Morse hit the cover off the ball last year and Roger Bernadina, while slumping badly in September (his slashline for his final 107 plate appearances was .161/.243/.215 and took his season OPS+ from somewhere in the 110 range down to its season ending 86).  Bernadina bulked up in the off-season and came ready to compete for the left fielder job while Morse has picked up right where he left off with a 2-homer game earlier this week.

Here’s the thing though; perhaps it isn’t a straight up competition between Morse and Bernadina for left field.  Perhaps the right solution is to put Bernadina in center, Morse in left and have Rick Ankiel serve as the 4th outfielder.  It would mean the probable end of Morgan with the team though.  He has an option and can be sent down, but (based on his behavior last year) its hard to believe he’ll rise to the occasion of the demotion and earn his way back up.

Some other side-effects of such a move:

• Morse can play 4 positions (1st, 3rd, left or right), meaning they’d have some infield cover if need be.
• With only 4 outfielders on the 25-man roster, we would free up a roster spot that presumably for someone like Matt Stairs, who most beat writers seem to think is making this team.  We’d be able to keep two utility infielders (selecting from Hairston, Gonzalez and Cora presumably) PLUS Stairs coming off the bench.

There are some negatives to this arrangement:

• We’d have no clear-cut leadoff man.  Bernadina does have some base stealing prowness (16 SB with only 2 CS in 2010) and showed yesterday his bunting ability.  But even during his best months in 2010 he was only maintaining about a .313 OBP.  That’s not enough for a leadoff guy.  Ian Desmond could be moved to leadoff but he makes more sense as a #2.  Danny Espinosa may eventually fit the bill as a leadoff guy but his power capabilities seem to lend him to being more of a #2 hitter himself.
• We’d take a step back in defense in Center.  Bernadina *can* play center but he’s not nearly as good at it as Morgan.  Likewise, Werth *can* play center but is truly a right fielder.

Some have said that Mike Rizzo will force the team to stick with Morgan longer than expected since he was part of Rizzo’s first big trade and he wouldn’t want to admit defeat so quickly.  To those, I say that’s fairly ridiculous.  To purposely harm the team’s performance and force the use of a sub-standard player on a team that is still rebuilding and has rookies to test out just to protect one’s ego over a player move made 2 years ago is silly.  Besides, it is clear to me the Nats “won” that trade regardless of what happens to Morgan; Milledge was flat out released in the off season and Hanrahan has pitched well but not as well as Burnett.  Even if we drop Morgan tomorrow i’d still rather have Burnett over Hanrahan (both based on performance and lefty versus righty).

The question is; how committed is the team to Morgan?  If he puts up a .200/.250/.260 April at the plate, are we going to make a change?  Might it happen if Morgan can’t put together a decent spring?