Nationals Arm Race

Stairs' performance lately led to Boswell answering the same question about him, twice. Photo: Carlson/AP via nydailynews.com

Boswell’s 5/31 chat; my answers to his questions.  I skipped the non-Nats questions, figuring that anyone could argue about Pujols, the Mets and what not.  I’ve paraphrased/shortened most of the rambling “questions” into single sentences, and have split “questions” that asked for multiple answers.

Q: (paraphrased): Should the Nats Release Stairs?  (This question was asked twice, at the beginning and later on).
A: Yes, they really should.  I continue to fail to see the utility of having Matt Stairs around.  I’ve talked at length about this point at various times in the past on this blog.  (Boswell agrees … says that he “looks awful,” but later on asks why we’re fixated on Stairs and that there’s bigger problems.  True, but right now i’d rather see Marrero batting .100 instead of Stairs.).

Q:(paraphrased): Should the Nats send Desmond to AAA to work on his hitting?
A: No, if only because there’s not really anyone decent to replace him.  What is the value of sitting or demoting Ian Desmond so that we can give a ton of at bats to Alex Cora or Brian Bixler?  Zero.  Unless we had a promising SS prospect in the minors worth seeing, there’d be no reason to sit Desmond right now.  (Boswell agrees, saying that Desmond has had “a million bush league at-bats”).

The only possible scenario that may eventually make sense; move Espinosa to short, demote/sit Desmond and bring up someone like Lombardozzi, Kobernus or Hague to play 2nd.  Except, Lombardozzi is not nearly ready for this move and isn’t on the 40-man, Kobernus is really struggling and looks like a draft bust, and Hague is halfway into his first pro season.  To say nothing of the fact that any move to bring Espinosa to a new position would be done in the spring, not in June.  (Ironically, Boswell mentioned this scenario .. but in his answer to the NEXT question).

Q: (paraphrased): Should Rizzo focus on hitting in the 2011 draft?
A: Yes … but the major league draft is always about getting the “best player available.”  Unlike a sport like basketball (where the existence of a small forward on a roster prevents a team like Portland from drafting Michael Jordan since you draft for need in the NBA), you cannot project what can happen to a major league roster over the course of the 4-5 years it takes to develop players.  Just because we have Ryan Zimmerman now, does not mean we should ignore drafting and developing 3rd basemen for the next 5 years.  If for no other reason than a good defensive 3rd baseman easily makes a switch to another position (2nd or 1st or even left field) if his bat turns out to be too valuable to keep out of the majors.

Now, that being said, the 2011 draft is college pitcher heavy.  So the first pick is almost guaranteed to be a college arm.  You take what comes to you, in many ways.  At #23, if a great college arm has dropped, you take him there as well.  (Future blog note; stay tuned for a review of the Nats choices and likely picks at #6).

Personally, I think the modern baseball team construction is about developing pitching first, and then buying hitting on the open market if you need to.  So, even given that we’re relatively thin on hitters at the lower levels, I don’t have a problem getting more and better arms if that’s what pops up on the radar.

(Boswell agrees, says, “go pitching,” noting that the Nats limiting factor is developing 1-2-3 starters).

Q: (paraphrased): What value does BABIP give?
A: For context, Boswell’s latest column was about Espinosa and the fact that he has a ridiculously low BABIP right now.

As Boswell notes, BABIP gives a context of just how lucky or unlucky a hitter (or pitcher for that matter) has been.  A pitcher with a low BABIP (like Tom Gorzelanny for us right now at .239) is eventually going to return to the mean.  A pitcher with a high BABIP is most likely unlucky and probably will experience a natural lowering of his ERA over time.

One factor to remember; a high-bunter will maintain an above average BABIP (like our favorite ex-leadoff hitter Nyger Morgan).  And, a skilled directional hitter (such as Rod Carew as mentioned by Boswell, but also someone like Wade Boggs) can maintain a higher-than league average BABIP just based on skill.  Ty Cobb, generally considered one of the best bunters of all time in addition to being one of the most prolific and skill ful hitters, maintained a .378 career BABIP.  That’s pretty amazing.

(Boswell more or less agreed with what I wrote).

Q: (paraphrased) Do we think that Riggleman’s style of managing has cost the team lately?
A: The team is awful in one-run games right now, and Boswell included a slight “dig” at Riggleman, quoting Earl Weaver‘s “play for one run early, lose by one run late” idiom and calling Riggleman a “small ball” manager.  Coincidentally, this column rankled Riggleman, who responded the next day with a blunt rebuttal.

To a certain degree I agree with the anti-small ball, anti-giving up outs sentiment; i’m not sure I like bunting guys over in the first or 2nd innings, assuming you’re not going to get to a starter.  Look at the 5/31 game; the Nats and their 2nd worst offense in the league hit THREE homers off of Halladay.  Who would have thought that?

That being said, I find it really tough to blame Riggleman for this team’s performance, at all.  Zimmerman out, LaRoche batting .187, Ankiel not much better.  These were the guts of this team’s proposed lineup and they’ve been missing or horrible all season.  The pitching staff management has been good for the most part.  We’re 2 games below our pythagorean W/L record but that’s probably mostly due to the outlier 17-5 game in Baltimore.

Riggleman isn’t the reason this team is 22-31; injuries are.  Blame the injuries, not the manager.  Well, injuries and an artificially low payroll for this market (but that’s another topic).

(Boswell doesn’t like Riggleman’s small-ball mentality and thinks he overmanages, as far as I can tell).

Q: Based on Zimmerman’s injury and LaRoche’s lack of productivity, does this team still have a shot to reach 75 wins?
A: They’re 22-31 now, on pace for 67 wins and a worse record than last year.  To finish with 75 wins they have to go 53-56 the rest of the way out.

Sorry, they’re not going to be a .500 team from here on out.  The bullpen is showing signs of wear, the starters are slowly declining to the point where all 5 are below a 100 era+, and there’s really nobody to bring up from AAA to stem the flow (as we saw on sunday with Maya’s mauling).

Getting back to last year’s 69 wins is a new team goal, frankly.

(Boswell somehow thinks the team still has a shot to reach 75 wins …. ).

Q: (paraphased) Are the Nats losing due to lack of talent, lack of fundamentals, or lack of accountability?
A: I’d say its lack of offensive talent.  Fundamentally you do see things here or there (bad decisions by fielders or baserunning errors) but the errors are way down lately.  Accountability?  Yes there was the Werth blowup recently, and perhaps he was pissed at some rookie behaviors.  We’ll never know; he clammed up and stopped talking to the press about it.

(Boswell lays the blame on Rizzo, interestingly.  Not sure I agree; how is a lack of production on the field the fault of Kasten’s departure from the club?  I do agree with Boswell in saying that this non-story will pass once the team has a winning streak).

Q: (paraphrased) Do the owners care that Nats-Phillies games in Washington become essentially Philly home games?
A: Personally, I don’t think the Lerners care.  They see a big gate, lots of revenue, lots of beers sold and lots of hot dogs consumed.  If they could schedule 81 home games against the phillies and make an extra $50M in gate, they’d be completely happy.

And that is kinda sad.  Its clear they’re running the franchise as a business and have profit targets in mind.  That sucks for fans b/c it means we’ll never really get a free-spending, open the checkbooks and go for it kind of owner.  Personally I hope some sort of payroll modifications are put into the next CBA, if only to prevent potential abuses of revenue sharing from profit-minded owners (see Lerner, Jeffrey or Nutting, Robert).

(Boswell didn’t directly address any opinion of the Lerners … just alluded to how he thinks he was a bad ass when he was in his teens).

Q: (paraphrased): How does the Nats farm system rank right now for positional players?
A: Most pundits don’t rank positional versus pitchers when looking at farm systems, but generally speaking the major analysts have the Nats farm system in the middle of the pack (12th-13th) right now.  It is slightly top heavy b/c of Harper.

A quick look at the system seems to show some good starters (Cole, Ray, Solis) and good hitters (Kelso, Harper) in low-A, scattered bright spots in high-A (Hague, Hood), a couple of bright spots in AA (Peacock, Lombardozzi, Norris) and a couple of very interesting arms in AAA (Meyer, Milone).  But that’s not enough depth, at all.

(Boswell thinks the system is weak).

Q: What is the future plans of these players: Moore, Norris, Lombardozzi, Detwiler and Balester?
A: Moore was old for Potomac last year but is doing well enough in AA.  Even if he doesn’t hit 30 homers he’s still an interesting prospect for now.  Norris is absolutely a future MLB catcher; he’s struggled post wrist surgery.  Lombardozzi could be at the least a good MLB utility infielder and i’m hoping he moves up and replaces the likes of Cora/Bixler/Hairston on the mlb roster.  Detwiler i’m concerned about; he’s not pitching well at all right now in AAA and I think he’s hurt.  Balester did well in a relief mode late last season and should be on the MLB roster if not for option statuses of several guys in that pen.  Longer term he has a live arm and should stick as a righty option for the extended future.

(Boswell doesn’t think as much of Balester as I do, but likes Norris and Lombardozzi).

Q: Are the veterans jumping ship on Riggleman (based on Werth comments and Marquis blow-up)?
A: I don’t think so … its way too early.  Its 50 games into a 7 year career for Werth.  He’s competitive, serious  and doesn’t like to lose.  The team has lost a bunch of games lately.  I think that’s all the Werth comments were about.

Marquis’ irritation in having an easy win taken away from him was understandable; he’s in a contract year, he’s taken plenty of losses in games where he’s pitched well enough to earn the win, and he felt like he should have been given that “free” win as a result.  I would have been pissed as well.

This whole team is veterans who should know their roles.  Cora, Hairston, Ankiel, Nix … every acquisition in the offseason was a vet.

(Boswell inexplicably reminds us that Riggleman and Boras are best buddies … in the context of what?  Because Werth is represented by Boras, somehow Werth will cut Riggleman a break?)

Q; (paraphrased) Was Alex Cora’s base-running really a gaffe?
A: Yes, absolutely.  He said he was running on contact, which is a mistake.  He HAS to make sure that ball clears the pitcher and watch the pitcher begin to make a 1-6-3 double play attempt.  (Boswell thinks Cora was right, which I disagree with, but also says it was a bad break, which is true).

Q: Is the Nats record in one-run games all Riggleman’s fault?
A: I’m sure he has something to do with it, but i don’t think you can put it all at his feet.  Boswell points out that Riggleman’s record versus the pythagorean is a massive outlier in comparison to top managers in the game  historically, and lists his “sentimental” managing as a result.  Hard to argue against that.  But its also much harder to win one-run games when you have an offense that barely scores 3.5 runs a game while your pitching staff usually gives up 4.

Q: (paraphrased): Is Davey Johnson waiting in the wings for Riggleman’s job?
A: Maybe.  who knows.  Put a better product on the field before killing the manager.  (Boswell says the team needs to spend more money in its manager budget).

That was fun!  He took a gazillion questions.

Do you really think Albert Pujols will leave St. Louis? Photo unknown source via fantasyknuckleheads.com

Here’s the latest in a recurring theme.  Bill Ladson posted his own answers to the following reader questions.

Q: What’s the long-term plan for the leadoff spot?
A: I think the team had hoped that Corey Brown (obtained in the Josh Willingham deal) would be further along in his AAA development than he has shown thus far.  As of today he’s hitting .202/.322/.323 and only has two stolen bases on the season.  That’s really not going to cut it.

I thought center field/lead-off hitter was a major area of concern going into the off-season, and thought (rightly) that Nyger Morgan‘s tenure was close to being done with the team after his erratic behavior and precipitous offensive decline last season.  But, center field is a really tough position to find and fill (see this older post that looked at the makeup of each of the 30 CF starters at the time … there’s not a ton of major names on that list), and the team entered spring training with Morgan penciled in as the starter.

Short Term (as in the next two years): I think we’ll continue to use Roger Bernadina in the role, unless Brown somehow remember how to hit.  2012 we’ll see more of the same.  Unless we can work a trade for someone that makes sense (see the BJ Upton question below).

Long Term (2013 and beyond): we’ll hope that one of our middle infield hitters owns the role.  I’d love to see Danny Espinosa or Ian Desmond blossom in that spot, but they both are struggling this year and both strike out, a lot.

(Ladson honestly didn’t have an answer … citing the lack of anyone in the minors to provide help.  Yeah, that’s true too).

Q: (paraphrased) Is the team going to trade Pudge Rodriguez?

A: I don’t believe they will.  I think its bad to assume that you can just magically trade a veteran.  Remember, Pudge is hitting .202 on the season right now with very little pop.  He looks every one of his 39 years.  Yes he’s still a great defensive catcher and he still has a great arm, but who would want him?  We keep hearing rumors (Boston, now San Francisco with Buster Posey‘s injury), but I think any trade we’d make would have to include nearly all his remaining salary, and we’d be looking at a low-level prospect in return.  For that kind of payment, why not just keep him through the rest of his contract so that Flores can stay in AAA and play every day.  (Ladson thinks that Pudge will be dealt, but he thinks the team is trading most every veteran no matter how poorly they’re hitting).

Q: (paraphrased) Is Wilson Ramos the everyday catcher?

A: Not yet, but he should be.  So far this year he’s gotten 127 plate appearances to Pudge’s 79, giving him about 60% of the at bats.  In a normal catcher platoon you’d have the backup going once-a-week or so (by way of comparison, Atlanta’s Brian McCann has 82% of his team’s catcher at-bats right now, and Matt Weiters has about 77%).  Part of that is out of respect to Pudge as the future hall of famer, and part of that is natural breaking in of a rookie.  But on a team that didn’t have Pudge as the backup, Ramos would be in the 80% range of playing for sure.  (Ladson says he’ll be the full time catcher in the 2nd half for sure).
Q: (paraphrased) Is the team really interested in BJ Upton?

A: I would be, if I was Rizzo.  He’s the exact prototypical leadoff/center fielder that this team desperately needs right now.  He’s not the best hitter (career 103 ops+) but he gets on base a lot (.345 career obp) and steals a ton of bases and has a career 4.9 uzr/150 in center field.  He’ll be a FA after next season, so odds are the Rays aren’t going to trade him unless they get good prospects in return.  Perhaps we look at him as a FA signing for the 2013 season, with the idea of putting Harper in Left field.  (Ladson says we did scout him earlier, but it was just normal scouting.  He doesn’t think Upton is any better than what we currently have offensively, which I rather disagree with).

Q: How is Chien-Ming Wang’s rehab going? Can we expect him in the Majors soon?

A: Short answer: poorly and never.  We have heard very little about Wang other than reports at the end of spring training that he was still months away from pitching.  Personally, I took that as a very bad omen.  It seems to be the same place he was in at this time last year.  He’s made no rehabilitation progress in nearly two years despite several million dollars of salary expended.  Not only do I not think he’s going to be in the majors soon, I’ll be shocked if he even goes out on a rehab assignment.  Reason?  Rehab assignments have time limits, Wang has no options remaining, meaning he’d have to be cut loose if he wasn’t ready to join the majors.  Frankly, I think he’s done.  (Ladson states the obvious; Wang will not pitch in a major or minor league game in the first half of the season).

Q: Have you heard any updates as to whether first baseman Chris Marrero’s defense is improving?

A: Marrero has definitely cut down on his errors in AAA, and is hitting decently enough.  I was of the opinion that he should have been called up to replace LaRoche on the MLB roster, but the timing worked out to re-call Rick Ankiel from his rehab assignment (where he was busy striking out repeatedly in AA-games).  The team line was that Marrero needs to play a whole season in AAA for some reason.  I say, with LaRoche’s injury and Zimmerman’s extended absense, this season is nearly lost already and to give the kid some playing time.  (Ladson says his defense is vastly improved).

Q: Who do the Nats envision playing first base in the future — Prince Fielder, Albert Pujols, some lesser free agent, Marrero, a future draftee? What’s the long-term strategy there?

A: Pujols will never leave St. Louis.  Fielder probably signs with the Chicago Cubs, one of the only major-payroll teams that don’t have a first baseman locked up for $100M long term (Yankees = Teixeira, Red Sox = Gonzalez, Phillies = Howard, and the Mets & Dodgers are not going to be buying anyone until ownership situations are resolved).  Fielder to the Cubs makes perfect sense and they’ll pay him enough to make it worth his while.  Rizzo would never buy Fielder.  He’s not “defensive minded” and doesn’t fit the mold of what Rizzo wants to put on the field.  LaRoche was exactly what he wanted (well, except for the shredded shoulder that is).

Long Term strategy: i’ll bet they continue to sign one or two year contracts with decent hitters who happen to be good fielders (LaRoche, Derrick Lee, even Carlos Pena to a certain extent) until the team produces someone that fits the bill.

(Ladson thinks the team will trade for a 1B or sign another FA in the off season.  I seriously doubt that.  LaRoche is signed through 2012 and will be back.  It isn’t a career ending injury, just season-ending.  He’ll play in 2012).

Tom Boswell from the Washington Post (Photo via pbs.org)

I like Tom Boswell‘s WP chats.  They’re usually scheduled 11am mondays (they used to be on Wednesdays) and unlike many Washington area sportswriters takes a large amount of baseball related questions.  He usually writes long-winded interesting responses that usually include nuggets of information that you’ve never really heard elsewhere.  His latest chat featured a ton of interesting questions that I thought I’d take a stab at (my answers first, then an interpretation of Boswell’s.  In most cases i’ve paraphrased the question for levity).

Q: Is Riggleman’s job in danger?

A: In danger??  If anything, Riggleman should be asking for a pay raise.  His best player has played in 7 games, his two major FA acquisitions are hitting .172 and .247, and his GM handed him a bullpen that was 3/7ths unusable.  Yet the team is hovering around .500 and is a mediocre offense away from having a winning record. (Boswell Agrees).

Q: (paraphrased) Should the Nats keep Matt Stairs?

A: My answer is pretty clear: No, we should DFA him right now and bring up either Marrero or Aubrey from AAA to give the team a fighting chance at some more offense off the bench.   (Boswell thinks Stairs is sticking around because the AAA alternatives are mediocre and because Stairs is as good a defensive firstbase-man as Morse or Marrero.  I’m sorry, but I have a real hard time believing that.  Morse is a converted short-stop!  And Marrero is actually playing every day, as opposed to what Stairs has been doing for the past 3 years of his career (namely, sitting on his ass for 8 innings and then swinging out of it in the 9th a few times a week).

Q: (paraphrased): How much blame does Rizzo’s roster creation deserve for our last place team?

A: A fair question; one can certainly nit-pick the Willingham trade (as I have done in this space), complain about the bullpen construction (as I have also done in this space) and question the $126M Jayson Werth signing (along with every other MLB pundit on the internet).  But, you have to also acknowledge his moves that have paid off (Nix, Coffey, and Hairston signings, Gorzelanny trade in particular).  For me, I still think we sacrificed Willingham and his offense at the alter of increased defensive prowness in left field (where we now have the defensively challenged Nix patrolling) and we’re seeing it in the lineup.  You don’t just replace #5 hitters who consistently put up 130 OPS+ numbers.  (Boswell posted some unnerving slash lines for the road outputs of both Willingham and Werth that show they’re essentially equal hitters.  Great).

Q: (paraphrased) Did the Nationals play scheduling games with the quick-draw 5/17 phantom rainout?

A: Yes, they did.  Instead of barely getting above gate for a Tuesday afternoon game while the kids are in school, the team cancelled the game early and (most likely) schedules it as a day/night doubleheader on the first Saturday in July when the Pirates come back to town.  In addition, they got to skip a turn for Jordan Zimmermann, guaranteeing one more start later in the year.   Its too bad, since we were planning on attending, but a 1pm game on Saturday in July will be fun too.  (Boswell more or less agreed, also noting that our bullpen was fried and could use a day off).

Q: (paraphrased) Is MLB actively trying to weed out PED users?

A: No, nor can or will they ever.  Those older vets who were around during the Steroid hey-dey are for the most part nearing retirement or already admitted users … but there’s no retroactive penalties for someone like Alex Rodriguez.  All he has to look forward to is a series of $30M checks, increasing irrelevance as his skills erode, eventual daily front-page ostracism from the NY papers as he nears the end of his ridiculous contract, and then a 5-year debate over how many votes he’ll eventually get (but not be elected) in his first year of Hall of Fame eligibility.  (Boswell more or less agrees).

Now, do I believe that baseball has rid itself of PEDs now?  More or less I say yes.  Anyone caught now is simply labeled a moron, and the players now see the stigma attached to their accomplishments if they get caught.  I think this is directly related to the rather steep decline we’ve seen in offense over the past few seasons and marks a dawn of a new, interesting age in the game.

Q: Are there more injuries now than before in Baseball?

A: I don’t get a sense that more injuries are occurring this year versus years past.  The Nats havn’t lost a single start to injury (a vast change from 2010).   Of course, I have no research to back it up.  There’s a great injury database online that is worth investigating if you are so inclined.  (Boswell more or less agrees).

Q: (paraphrased) Is Adam LaRoche’s lack of production really because of his shoulder injury?

A: Yeah, I think it is.  A slight shoulder injury for a first-baseman isn’t too difficult to get around; its not like you’re making a dozen high-leverage throws across the diamond per week.  But a really bad shoulder injury will affect your swing.  I’m predicting a DL stint for LaRoche ((Update: sure enough he went on the DL 5/24) and just hoping that he doesn’t elect/be forced into Labrum surgery (which would blow the season for him and be a pretty significant blow to any chance this team had of realistically improving their record this year).  (Boswell thinks he’s going to “rest” for a bit and compares LaRoche to Jason Marquis last year).

Q: Were the Umpires “sending a message” with the odd Bernadina call on sunday?

A: I don’t think so.  But man the Nats have been on the receiving end of a lot of really bad calls lately.  Rizzo certainly let it be known that he thinks that’s the case.  Coincidentally, one of the major reasons pitchers need to be 100% stoic on the mound is near immediate and continual umpire retribution.  I watched Yunesky Maya openly gripe about ball/strike calls in a game last september and within a few pitches was called for a balk.  At the very least the umpire will eliminate the outside corners, which greatly reduces a pitcher’s effectiveness.  (Boswell thinks there may be some conspiracy theory involved).

Q: How long will it take the team to fill the gaping holes it has in its lineup?

A: Perhaps a couple years, and a lot of money.  Unlike pitching, teams can acquire hitting in free agency relatively quickly.  Thinking of where we need to be in 2013; we’re set on RF, CF (Harper), 3B, 2B and C.  We may need to look for help in LF, SS, and 1B.  Ironically, two of those positions are the two spots you can hide sluggers.  We may just live with Desmond hitting .220 at shortstop.  But there’s lots of slugger options that can fill those two spots.   A quick peek at the pre-2013 FA list shows some guys we could target.  How about BJ Upton or Curtis Granderson?  (Boswell thinks all 8 healthy starters this year are as good as last year’s team.  I disagree.  A ton of pop and power left in Dunn and Willingham).  I don’t think spending the farm on Albert Pujols or Prince Fielder is the answer either.

Q: Did Wilson Ramos make the wrong call on the 0-2 curve that cost the Nationals yesterday’s game?

A: Can’t say an 0-2 curve is the worst call out there.  Usually with free swingers on 0-2 you go with either a rising fastball at their eyes or a curve that starts over the plate and ends up so far outside they can’t hit it with a broom.  Zimmermann flat out missed with his curve; he said he was “trying to bounce it” and instead left it over the plate for a gopher ball.  Every pitcher makes mistakes; great hitters turn those mistakes into homers.  (Boswell agrees)

This was fun; i’m going to do this again next week!

Matt Stairs swings and misses at another fastball. Photo: Getty Images via zimbio.com

Lost in the shuffle of Friday’s offensive explosion in Baltimore was this line: Matt Stairs: 0-4, 2 strikeouts and 5 runners left on base hitting in the #5 hole.  The coup-de-grace for me was the inexplicable bases-loaded strikeout he had in the 4th, letting a perfect down-the-middle fastball pass right by him to end the inning.

That at-bat disgusted me.  It isn’t the first time we’ve seen Stairs let a pitch go by that he clearly was guessing otherwise on, and in the end of course the at bat didn’t matter, but its indicative of where he is now as a hitter.  On fastball counts, he’s guessing otherwise and letting pitches go by without even an offering in high-leverage situations.  But for me, if you have 2 strikes you’re not trying to hit home runs; you’re trying to put the ball in play.  It seems to me that his skills as a hitter have declined to the point where he’s depending more on guess work than his former hitting prowness to succeed at the plate.

Meanwhile, every other player in the lineup was mashing Baltimore pitching last night (well, except for Adam LaRoche, but that’s a different contract, a different defensive player, and a different story).  Our 7-8-9 hitters were 8-13 (eight hits out of the bottom three!).

I think its time to end the experiment.  For the season (as of 5/20) Stairs is 2 for 26 with no extra base hits.  He has a NEGATIVE OPS+, meaning that he’s hitting roughly 100% worse than an average major league player.  He has no defensive value and can’t pinch run when needed.  I think we need to bring up someone else from AAA.

Michael Aubrey didn’t have the worst numbers the last time he played in the majors (Baltimore in 2009), is also a lefty, can play first base if needed and (if you believe his profile’d height/weight of 6’0″ 190lbs) should be able to run the bases if needed.  We have a 40-man spot open with the DFA of Broderick and we could make this move immediately as a like-for-like replacement for Stairs.  If you didn’t want to add a guy to the roster, you could also just call up Chris Marrero, who doesn’t quite have Aubrey’s power but is hitting consistently in AAA and had 18 homers in AA last year.  Marrero could be a righty bat off the bench coupled with Ankiel’s lefty bat as a 4th outfielder/bat off the bench as well.

Either way, I think its time to make a change.

Bernadina's 5/13/11 catch has to be one of the plays of the season. Photo: Masn TV Screen shot via dc.sbnation.com

(I swear I had this post written over the weekend; i’m not copying my fellow bloggers’ ideas 🙂

The Nats have an OF problem coming.  Rick Ankiel (season slash line: .221/.302/.288 mostly out of the #2 hole) has been ably replaced in the lineup and in center field by Roger Bernadina, who is now trying to live up to the billing that the team had hoped for him all off-season (when most pundits and bloggers had annointed him the starting left fielder despite a relatively mediocre 2010 slash line of .246/.307/.384.  In his first 10 games and 38 at bats he had a .344/.447/.406 slash line hitting leadoff, to go with 4 SBs without being caught.  And he’s clearly playing lights out defense in center, with some highlight reel catches and adequate enough defense from an UZR/150 perspective.

Is Bernadina’s performance sustainable?  Probably not; his BABIP was an unnaturally high .407 (though frequent bunters will have an maintain higher BABIPs than the MLB average in the .290-.300 range).  An OBP of .450 was also not sustainable.  Sure enough, as of 5/19’s game he’s returned to a more typical .273/.360/.318 line (though I like the .360 obp from the leadoff spot).

So, if Bernadina is staying up and continuing to play, who makes way on the 25-man?  Ankiel’s return would give the team 5 outfielders on a team that can only really carry 4. Here’s some relevant contract and options details of our 5 OFers:

• Jayson Werth: Clearly he’s not going anywhere.
• Laynce Nix: He’s got 5 years of service time and would refuse an assignment to AAA, not to mention being exposed to waivers when we did so.  He’s our current clean up hitter and has wrested the starting job away from Morse.
• Michael Morse: No options left; if we ask him to go to Syracuse he has to clear waivers, and there’s teams out there sniffing around for right handed OF help (ahem, Philadelphia).
• Rick Ankiel: 5 years of service time, so he can refuse an assignment.  Plus we’re not paying him $1.5M to just let him go.
• Roger Bernadina: currently burning his 3rd and last option, but performing decently from the top of the order.

In other words, the only guy who we CAN option to the minors is Bernadina.  But can the team purposely send down a guy who has been giving them their best leadoff production all season?  I don’t think they can.

How about the rest of the bench right now?  Assuming for the time being that Hairston is the starting 3rd baseman and Ramos is the starting catcher, here’s our current bench:

• Ivan Rodriguez: Plenty of service time, plus on a $2M contract, plus he’s the backup catcher.  He’s staying (unless the Red Sox panic and trade something for him).
• Matt Stairs: Tons of service time; would refuse any outright to AAA and look for another PH job.
• Alex Cora: 11+ years of service time so could refuse outrighting.
• Brian Bixler: Very little service time, was on a minor league contract to begin with, and has options (2011 would be his 3rd option, though he’s been outrighted in the past).

I’ll editorialize about the 25-man spot that Stairs currently occupies for a moment; he is 2 for 21 on the season right now, cannot play the field, and effectively shortens the bench by one player.  If you want his veteran presence around, then DFA him and hire him as a bench coach!

Now, that being said for reasons inexplicable Stairs probably stays on the roster.  So, when Ankiel is ready to come back I’m going to guess that the team options Bixler, keeps 5 outfielders, Ankiel serves as a 4th outfielder, and Morse participates in some sort of lefty-righty platoon with Nix.

We’ll revisit this entire situation once Ryan Zimmerman is ready to play, because that’s when something has to give.

Harper, not quite showing the massive target on his back. Photo: Drew Angerer/The Washington Times

With another “incident” involving Bryce Harper hitting the airways, and another round of media members using no originality or doing any analysis and immediately judging Harper based on his “make-up,” I thought i’d comment.  This relates to a benches-clearing incident at West Virginia on 4/26/11.

Here’s two video links of the latest incident.  One from the RF stands, another from behind the plate (thanks to Zuckerman’s natsinsider site and csnwashington.com).  Watch very closely the first video; the strikeout occurs, Harper stands in place dropping his equipment, and while showing no reaction, no emotion and saying nothing the plate umpire advances towards the opposing pitcher, takes off his mask, and starts to tell him (the opposing pitcher) to back off.  Only after all this happens does Harper hear some “magic words” and react. By which time both benches were starting to run towards each other.  There was no brawl, just some general milling around.

Now you tell me: how is that POSSIBLY Harper’s inciting anything?  Yes, perhaps it started with Harper’s solo shot in the first, with him and the catcher clearly trading words.  Again; who is to say who said what to whom first?  For all we know Harper may have been talking trash, and for all we know the catcher may have said something along the lines of, “lucky hit you punk*ss” to Harper as he crossed the plate.

Because of his bonus, his precociousness, his 40-man roster spot, his SI cover and his accomplishments to date, Harper has such a massive target on his back that its almost impossible to judge these incidents unless you’re there, one the field, taking in the whole context of the incident.  It is absolutely unfair to post stories about what happened in Charleston with headlines like, “Harper sparks brawl in minor league game.” Then starts the whole nonsense about his “makeup.”  Each incident gives National pundits more ink to post their “concerns” over his make up, his maturity, blah blah.

People want to talk about the kid’s “makeup.”  Fine; lets talk about it.  Lesse; he graduated high school 2 years early, he’s devoutly Morman and reportedly has never drank, smoked, chewed or otherwise caroused in his life (how many of these stud-athletes-all-their-privileged-lives can say that?).  He’s got an incredible work ethic and has yet to show one iota (as far as I can tell) of behavior that indicates he’s resting on his laurels or that he’s entitled to anything that he has been given.  The Washington Post magazine did a fantastic article on Harper, his family and his upbringing a few months back, and I dare any reader to come away from that article with anything but the utmost respect for this kid and his family.

He had two ejections in his college season; one was clearly, absolutely the result of his jealous opposing team lobbing baseballs at him and doing other bush league BS in the pre-game to try to get his goat.  The second ejection was a ridiculous over-reaction from an umpire who couldn’t wait to show this hot-shot kid who was boss after he made an egregiously bad 3rd strike call (on a ball that may have been in the opposing batters box it was so far outside).  Harper didn’t slam his helmet, he didn’t turn around an scream at the umpire; he showed some displeasure over the call and then drew a line in the dirt.

You watch the videos and make your own conclusions.

Perhaps you can argue something along the lines of, “well he should know better.  He should turn the other cheek and take all this abuse because he should know how the media is going to spin it.”  Really?  At the age of 17, during your senior year of high school, were YOU that world-weary and have that kind of wisdom?  I seriously doubt it.  The problem with the media’s TMZ-esque coverage of our young athletes these days is that we continually forget that, well, they’re KIDS.  If you did something dumb as a 21yr old, well you’re a dumb*ass 21-yr old.  If a 21-yr old 2nd year NBA player does something dumb, its yet another example of a privileged athlete setting a bad example for kids who look up to him.  It is never fair reporting, and never takes into account the realities of any of the situations these kids find themselves in.

As it stands, yeah Harper probably will continue to get into jawing matches with guys who are jealous of where he has gotten himself so early and so well.  Its human nature to covet that which you so desperately want but do not yet have.  And yeah, perhaps Harper needs to turn the other cheek better.  But to blame him for these incidents and lay them at his feet whenever he naturally stands up for himself is just lazy reporting.

I’m a Harper fan.  I’m continually amazed at what he accomplishes at his age.  His college season was amazing.  So far in low-A he’s recovered from a slow-start and is currently hitting .323/.425/.645.  Playing against guys routinely 3-4 years older than him.  If he were any other normal baseball prospect in the country, he’d be finishing up his senior year in high school and getting ready for the draft.  Instead, he’s tearing up low-A ball and may very well end up in Potomac on the fast track to the majors before his 18th birthday.  All that being said, I WANT confidence and swagger out of my future slugger.  The clean-up hitter is never a soft-spoken, lead by example guy.  It is always the ego-driven, confident big-hitter who leads the way offensively for his team.

But lets try to put things in context before we judge him.

Is Brian Bixler the savior of the Nats offense? We'll see. Photo: Al Bello/Getty Images North America via zimbio.com

Most of the Nats beat reporters are posting that Jesus Flores is getting sent back down to AAA and that infielder Brian Bixler is getting the call-up.  Flores just hasn’t been getting at bats (2 pinch hitting appearances in 10 days) and he needs to get playing time if we’re going to parlay him into anything of value on the trade market.

Meanwhile, we know that Ian Desmond is imminently going on paternity leave and we’ll need a middle infielder to cover for him (since we’re already using one of our backup infielders Jerry Hairston Jr on a full time basis covering for the injured Ryan Zimmerman).

Bixler has merited a look, having played well in Spring Training and having hit pretty well down in Syracuase thus far (.326/.483/.370 in 46 plate appearances).  Maybe he’ll even feature at lead-off for a bit with such a great OBP.

Here’s the problem: Bixler’s not on our 40-man roster.  He’ll need to be added, and someone will need to be dropped off.  We’ve already dumped all three guys that we could onto the 60-day roster (Strasburg, Elvin Ramirez and Wang) and none of the 15-day DL guys would make sense.  So it looks like someone’s getting the axe.  Here’s your top candidates and my guess

1. Atahualpa Severino: He lost out on the Loogy role in the spring, and then presumably lost out on the loogy role in AAA as well.  He’s currently on the minor league “DL” but nobody heard of any injury to the guy towards the end of spring training.  We brought in Hyde and have converted Chico to situational lefties in Syracuse, making Severino pretty obsolete.  I’m guessing he’s the most expendible.
2. Lee Hyde: see my commentary in my latest minor league pitching review for why Hyde may be on the chopping block.  He was a late spring waiver acquisition from Atlanta and has been awful in Syracuse thus far.  His saving grace is that he’s a lefty.
3. Garrett Mock: his latest outing in Syracuse gives him 17 walks in 11 1/3 AAA innings in 2011.  He may get a stay of execution this time around, but I have to think his days are numbered on the 40-man.
4. Chad Gaudin: so far he’s been the least effective pitcher in our bullpen (further commented upon in my latest good/bad/indifferent post).  He may be safe for now, but may be released when both Coffey and Rodriguez are healthy and need 25-man spots at the same time.

Prediction: Severino makes way, passes through waivers and stays in extended spring training.  Unless there’s some rule about dropping a guy on your DL; if so I’d guess they would re-instate him briefly to AAA then DFA him or outright release him.

4/23/11 Update: The Nationals announced they have designated Lee Hyde for assignment, ending his Nationals tenure after just a few weeks.

Side note on the Paternity policy as it relates to the 40-man machinations: I believe the paternity leave allows a team to place a player on a temporary restricted list, which temporarily removes him from the 40-man roster.  I am having a hard time finding the actual text of the new policy; all I can find is that it is good for 24-72 hours and allows a team to replace the player on the active roster.  I would have to think that the replacement player would already have to be on the 40-man roster, so we’d still need to make a corresponding 40-man move.

Espinosa is carrying the team right now.

If I had a steady stream of questions coming in, I’d have my own mailbox edition.  As it stands though, I’ll just provide my own answers to the questions that MLB.com’s Nationals beat writer Bill Ladson selects for his semi-weekly mailbag.

Q: What’s the long-term plan for the leadoff spot? Danny Espinosa has a lot of power and deserves to be in the middle of the lineup.

A: I guess that depends on what the definition of “long term” is.  If long-term means the rest of the season, then I agree with Ladson’s assertion that Danny Espinosa is the best player we have for the lead-off spot.  He’s a switch hitter, is making good contact and can get on base better than any of the other candidates (.364 for the season thus far).  In a limited sample size last year he didn’t show this kind of patience; how quickly he’s made the adjustment to major league pitching. Theoretically we do have a prospect in Corey Brown in AAA acquired just for this purpose, and in prior AA seasons he’s shown 20-20 capabilities and good defense in center.  However he’s struggling in AAA this year (as he did last year) and he may not be an option this season.

I advocated the replacement of Nyjer Morgan in the off season, but quality leadoff-center field candidates don’t grow on trees in the Majors.  I did a quick review of all the starting CFs in the league for analysis purposes in this post about Harper and came up wanting.  I was hoping that Roger Bernadina would blossom into the role but he faltered at every step this spring training.

In the real “long-term” (i.e. 3-4 years from now) we seem to be grooming Bryce Harper to play center, so we don’t necessarily have to worry about finding a prototypical fast, defense-first, high OBP center fielder to fit into the lead off spot.  Not all lead-off hitters have to be no-power, run-first guys; Richie Weeks is doing just fine leading off for Milwaukee right now.

Personally, I agree that Espinosa could fit into this team better as a middle of the order guy, but our 3-4-5 long term is mostly set (Zimmerman-Harper-Werth).  Espinosa makes a ton of sense as a table setter, as does Desmond, so putting those guys 1-2 makes the most sense.

Q: Given his persistent shoulder problems so far this year, if Adam LaRoche has to spend time on the disabled list this season, what do you think the corresponding move by the Nats will be? Will we see Michael Morse at first base, with Roger Bernadina being called up?

A:  Ladson’s answer was to bring Bernadina up and put Morse at first.  I doubt that would happen; more likely we’d see Laynce Nix getting starts in LF with Morse at first.  Unless of course Morse continues to forget how to hit, at which point we may have to get creative.  We only have FOUR non-pitchers on the 40-man roster right now who aren’t either on the DL or in the majors; Chris Marrero, Bernadina, Harper, and Chris Brown.  Thats it; we have so little non-pitcher flexibility that continued injuries may really kill us this year.

That being said, I’ve personally played with a fully blown SLAP lesion and, while it is incredibly painful to throw, LaRoche is a first baseman who has to make a high-leverage throw perhaps once or twice a week.  Unless he manages to fully blow his rotator cuff, he should be able to gut out the season and have surgery in October.

Q: I asked Rizzo at the NatsFest why Bernadina and Matt Chico weren’t on the Major League roster and he didn’t give a solid answer. I can’t see any reason why these guys aren’t here. Do you agree?

A: The Nats were lucky (in my opinion) to retain Matt Chico after he was DFA’d in December 2010.  I was surprised by the move honestly; usually mid-20s lefties with any track record in the majors are coveted.  He now seems to be remaking himself as a lefty specialist and should compete or replace Doug Slaten in case of injury or poor performance.

Bernadina (as has been said elsewhere) lost out on the LF job, then CF job, then 4th outfielder job in spring training.  One may argue that the Nats chose to keep Nix over Bernadina more for options purposes and perhaps to leverage Nix into trade bait (since he fared so well in the Spring), but perhaps Nix just flat out impresses Riggleman more.  They’re both lefties, both play left field, but Nix is a bopper and can get the big hit. Bernadina had 460 at bats in 2010 to state his case and he didn’t.

Q: Any news on left-hander Oliver Perez?

A: Baseball America reported that Perez was placed on the minor league DL, but I (as does Sue Dinem over at www.nationalsprospects.com I suspect) think this is one of those “soft tissue” injuries that is meant to stash a player in Viera.  that being said, I’d agree with Ladson’s answer that he’s probably working with our pitching staff and trying to get back the form that earned him his big contract in the first place.  This is a complete low-risk signing for the Nats; its found money if they ever get anything from him.

Q: When is Wilson Ramos going to be the everyday catcher? Ivan Rodriguez’s offensive numbers are not good.

A: Boy, its going to be awful tough for Riggleman to bench a future Hall of Famer.  But Ramos seems like he’s stating his case with the bat every time he plays.  It is nice to have suddenly found a power hitter in a spot (catcher) that we’ve been batting 8th for years.  I’m guessing that Pudge the pro will recognize that he’s hurting the team and bite his tongue.

Q: I don’t want to get rid of Ian Desmond, but it’s clear to me and most people watching feel that he is not the answer at shortstop. When will management move him to second or Triple-A Syracuse and put Espinosa in the place he was supposed to be all along — shortstop?

A: Hear, hear!  I completely agree.  Desmond may in fact have a better arm but he is making mistakes left and right, and not just errors.  I would guess that another 35 error season will see these two switch places in spring training 2012.

Q: I am so incredibly confused why Riggleman falls in love with veterans that quite frankly look like they are past their prime.

A: If this questioner thinks Riggleman falls in love with veterans, then he must have been going psychotic watching Frank Robinson play Cristian Guzman every day for 5 months with a sub .200 batting average in 2006.  I agree with Ladson; having vets on the bench who understand their roles and serve as assistant coaches is far better than having Alberto Gonzalez whining about his playing time when clearly he wasn’t better than our options on the field.

Is Ankiel the solution for the Nats in center field? Photo by Al Bello/Getty Images via federalbaseball.com

Editors note: I was out of town last weekend and had this queued up but never hit publish :-).

MLB’s Nationals beat writer Bill Ladson hasn’t done an inbox for a few weeks, probably because he’s been busy at spring training.  Now that the regular season has started and we’ve had some debatable 25-man roster decisions made, he has published another edition of his Inbox column.  Here’s how i’d answer the questions he selects…

Q: What are you most worried about with the Nationals in 2011?

A: I’d say, in order, offense, the starting rotation, center field, and the back end of the bullpen.  I feel like we took a step backwards in terms of offense, we have improved the rotation over last year but still would probably rank this rotation 28th or 29th in the league, that Rick Ankiel in center field doesn’t really help us a ton, and that Drew Storen had such a rough spring that our end-of-game scenarios may be challenging.

Q: How do you think the Nationals will fare this season in the National League East with their off-season signings?

A: Probably the same as last year; last place.  Philadelphia and Atlanta are probably playoff bound no matter how many injuries the Phillies sustain.  Florida is probably taking a step side ways, having lost Uggla but picked up Vazquez (honestly, I don’t see how their fans don’t revolt at their perennial 87 win team doesn’t spend the $10 needed to improve themselves to be a 92 win team and challenge for the wild card).  The Nats may finish above the Mets, if only because that franchise is in such disarray right now.  They’re eating more than $20M in salary for players they’ve already released, they made no significant off-season moves and there’s serious injury question marks around 4 of their 5 best paid players (Santana, Beltran, Bay and Francisco Rodriguz).  I can see that time imploding badly and the Nats sneaking ahead of them for 4th place, maybe.

Q: If Bryce Harper has an amazing year in the Minors, is there a chance he will get a Major League callup?

A: They shouldn’t … but they may.  I would not be surprised to see the kid rocket through low-A and high-A ball.  It would be purely a late-season revenue grab to call him up, but they need to be careful on his service time accrual.  If he plays 30 days in September we’d have to keep him down an extra 30 days in 2012 to ensure he doesn’t become a super-2.  For those not clear on the implications of super-2 screwup, read this bit about the mistake the Giants made with Tim Lincecum.

That being said, i’d love to see him playing in the bigs before his 19th birthday.  That’d be fantastic.  And he may very well earn it.  His weakness in the AFL and in spring training was offspeed pitches, but its hard to fault the kid for wanting to swing and make something happen in the limited time he’s seen.  Once a full season gets going and he’s getting 4 ABs every night, he will learn patience, he will earn walks as pitchers work around him, and he’ll pick his spots.  This, more than anything else, is the lesson he needs to learn to advance in the minors.

Q: Do we see a parallel developing between Roger Bernadina and Justin Maxwell? How long do we have to wait?

A: It isn’t a bad parallel to note.  Bernadina lost the LF job, then the CF job, then the 4th outfielder job to a non-roster invitee.  He’s burning his last option as we speak.  He has a career 80 OPS+.  I openly questioned in this space why he was the presumed starter in LF all off-season, and as it turned out I was right about Morse being the better player.  I think he’ll play out the string in AAA this year and get traded for a low-level minor leaguer at the end of spring training 2012, just as we did with Morgan and Gonzalez this week.

Q: What do you think of the job general manager Mike Rizzo and manager Jim Riggleman have done since they took over in 2009?

A: I think Rizzo has done a decent job with the major league team and a pretty good job with the farm system.  I feel like he’s tried a little TOO hard to rid the team of the non-defensive hitters Willingham and Dunn, and could have gotten more for them.  I understand the Werth signing but think (like the rest of baseball) that he overpaid and strangely backloaded the contract (why back load instead of front load?  We’re actually at LESS payroll this year than last, so we could be paying him $20M this year instead of $10M and still look like we’re treading water).  He’s definitely assembled a team in his vision; defensively gifted, a bullpen full of power arms.  Next step; power rotation.

Riggleman is doing the best with what he has; I don’t believe other managers could do much better.  Most people believe we have probably the 28th or 29th best collection of talent in the majors, but we’re achieving better than 29th place.

Q: Besides Harper, which rookie impressed you during Spring Training?

A: I cannot disagree with Ladson’s selection of Cole Kimball as “most impressive rookie.”  I would not be surprised to see him called up in 2011 and to start getting high-leverage appearances.

Did we really need a .232 pinch hitter who can't play the field? Photo Carlson/AP via nydailynews.com

As the Nats are breaking camp, they’ve announced a flurry of roster moves that are setting up the team for its opening day.  And, in a series of moves reminiscent to 2009’s opening day roster, we’re breaking camp not necessarily with the best guys on our 25-man roster, but with the best team option status (or lack of them) can assemble.

As the title of this post suggests, I understand the logic of these decisions but don’t necessarily like what it means for the team.  I think we’re weaker than we could be, and we’re keeping around veterans with no long term place for this team instead of playing guys who deserve to be on the MLB squad.  I think it sends a bad message to guys who deserve to be playing but who will be heading to Syracuse.

Both Collin Balester and Roger Bernadina seem to have missed out on roster spots so that the team would not lose players who may have trade value in Chad Gaudin and Laynce Nix respectively.

For some reason, we’re keeping Matt Stairs instead of a player who can actually help off the bench.  As pointed out by Ben Goessling, this also means that our bench is incredibly lefty-heavy and we’ll struggle with matchups later in games. Isn’t Rizzo obsessed with defense?  How does Stair’s lack of *any* discernable defensive capability fit in with his overall vision for this team?  Another Natsmosphere twitter-er asked this good question; if Adam LaRoche‘s shoulder puts him on the DL; who exactly is the backup first baseman out of this group of bench players?

So, for our final 25-man roster we’re using 4 non-roster invitees.  Gaudin makes the team and probably deserved it.  Nix makes the team and seems to be trade bait.  Stairs makes the team for some reason or another.  And Alex Cora probably (deservedly) makes the team as Alberto Gonzalez‘s replacement (who we’ve traded to San Diego for a pretty good prospect considering we would have DFA’d him in 3 days…).

I guess if we obtain prospects for Gaudin or Nix in a trade later on this season, then it would be worth the options burn on Balester and Bernadina.  I hope so; along with Detwiler and Mock, 2011 represents their final option year.