I’m a relative newcomer to the Nats blogosphere; soon I hope to be invited to be part of the “DC Internet Baseball Writer’s Association” an unofficial BBWA-esque group of just the DC guys. Dave at Nats News Network (who sometimes references my posts … thank you!) posited these pre-season Nats predictions to the group. Here’s the sum of their answers. Since I love sharing my opinions on hypothetical questions as much as the next guy, here’s my thoughts.
1) Who will lead the Nats in home runs in 2011? Zimmerman: tough call though, I’m guessing that all three guys in the 3-4-5 range finish with close to the same numbers. I’ll guess Zimmerman goes for 30, Werth 28 and LaRoche 25. Their numbers last year respectively were 25, 27 and 25. I think Zimmerman rebounds to repeat his 2009 numbers, Werth slightly down-ticks by not having Citizens Bank Park to hit in, and LaRoche consistently continues his typical production.
2) Who will lead the Nas in RBI? Werth, if only because he’s hitting behind Zimmerman.
3) Who will lead the Nats in stolen bases? Desmond. Most will say Morgan by default. I’m thinking Morgan may not hold onto the starting job for long, and we’ll be looking at Desmond in the leadoff role before you know it.
4) Who will lead the staff in wins? Livan: I see another season of Livan going 12-12 and the rest of our squad struggling to reach 200 innings.
5) Who will lead the staff in saves? Storen: I think he’ll continue to be put into that role by virtue of his better control and more experience in the role as compared to Henry Rodriguez.
6) Which starter will lead the team in starts? Livan: no question; he hasn’t missed a start since he defected.
7) Who will pitch more innings for the Nats this season: Chien-Ming Wang, Yunesky Maya, Ross Detwiler? Yunesky Maya: I think Maya’s the first call-up and sticks in the rotation once he gets there. Wang may not get called up til May and there’s no guarantee he performs (or is healthy), while Detwiler may be trade bait on account of the logjam in the majors.
8) Who will get more at bats for the Nats this season: Rick Ankiel, Jerry Hairston, Alberto Gonzalez? Ankiel: Gonzalez is closer to getting released than making this team, and Hairston is only going to be a once a week starter. Ankiel has a legitimate chance of winning a starting role on this team.
9) Who will get more at bats for the Nats this season: Ivan Rodriguez, Jesus Flores, Wilson Ramos? Pudge. I think Pudge is still the starter and probably starts 4-5 of every 7 games this year.
10) How many all-stars will the Nats have? Who? Tough call. I’m going to be an optimist and say Two. Zimmerman and Werth. I think the team gets some recognition, especially if we’re hovering around .500 for a good portion of the season.
11) Total wins and what place in the division? 75 wins, 4th place. The Mets seem like a trainwreck and could slip to last place.
12) Single most important thing for the Nats this season? Don’t stick with under-performing starters; give our starting pitching depth a whirl and see if someone from Maya, Wang, Mock, Detwiler or even Gaudin can actually produce at the major league level.
Here’s a few other questions worth asking:
1. Who makes the squad as the #2 catcher, Flores or Ramos? I was going with Flores; older, more track record of production at the MLB level. But Ramos seems to be winning the positional battle right now. It makes sense for Flores, who hasn’t played in nearly 2 years, to put in a few games in AAA to get back into the grind.
2. Will Ryan Zimmerman have a top-5 MVP finish? I’ll say no; but as soon as the Nats are playoff contenders Zimmerman will start to become listed regularly in the MVP conversation.
3. Who will win the 5th Starter role? Barring injury, I say Gorzelanny by virtue of his (lack of) options status.
4. Is Riggleman on the hot seat at all in 2011? I say no, by all accounts the team is more professional this year and that reflects well on the manager.
5. Who “wins” the starting left fielder job? Morse. I’m going to be confident that Riggleman is going to put out the best player. Morse is hitting the cover off the ball this spring, and while Bernadina isn’t far behind Morse also was the superior hitter last year. Ankiel is falling behind and looks to be the 4th outfielder.
6. Does Morgan hold onto his starting job? Not all season, not at this rate. 5/26 in the spring with a bunch of boneheaded plays in the field and on the basepaths. I really believe that the team should give the CF starting job to Bernadina.
Let’s hope you’re dead wrong on Detweiler being trade bait.
Mark L
12 Mar 11 at 9:27 am
I thought I heard the lineup at least the 3-4-5 was going to be Werth-Zimm-Laroche that will give Zim and Laroche more RBI opportunities
Otherwise I can get with what you are putting out there
Add one more –Harper is up when rosters expand this year and feeling hitterish!!
Neil O
12 Mar 11 at 10:06 am
🙂 I should have re-read that post before publishing. I wrote it 2 weeks ago before Detwiler started tearing up spring training.
On your other thoughts about the stadium, totally agree within reason. Minnesota opened a new stadium AND spent lots of money on the team to ensure it was playoff bound. Washington opened a new stadium and threw out a team that probably wouldn’t have won the AAA International league … and guess what they have? A degraded season ticket base and jaded fans. I had 8 season tickets at the time and my entire group disgustedly dumped the tickets.
Tampa’s lease on that stadium runs for 25 more years and the state legislature just got burned badly on the Marlins stadium. They’re stuck and will be stuck for a long time. I’m more interested in seeing what happens with Oakland, which makes sense to move to San Jose if not for the Giant’s rather ridiculous geographical claims (San Jose is the same length away from SF as Baltimore is to Washington, with similar traffic issues). Meanwhile you can get from SF’s current stadium to Oaklands via a 15-minute BART ride. I know its all posturing for more money or concessions by the SF ownership group, but it is a move that needs to happen.
Todd Boss
13 Mar 11 at 12:11 pm
If Desmond is your #2 hitter (and by all accounts he is), then you’d have Desmond-Zim-Werth-LaRoche. That’s Righty-Righty-Righty-Lefty. You just cannot put three straight right handers out there in the middle of your order. Laroche needs to break that up somehow, else it is too easy for opposing managers to bring in their right handed flame throwing middle-relief guy to blow through 2-3-4.
Perhaps the answer is Desmond-LaRoche-Zimmerman-Werth. Or flip the last two. That’d break things up. Or you find someone who can hit lefty out of the two spot (Bernadina? Espinosa?) and it isn’t so bad.
I’m saying “no way” on Harper getting called up. I just cannot see it. I think he advances from low-A to AA this summer, starts 2012 in AAA and gets called up around June 1st to play the “arbitration clock” game properly. Same thing they did with Strasburg, saving millions down the road. Hey, maybe i’m wrong, but the implications of major league service time on future earnings are severe (Boswell did a good analysis on Strasburg, and the Lincecum case is pretty clear)
Todd Boss
13 Mar 11 at 12:18 pm