Nationals Arm Race

I'm going to miss the Warpaint. Photo thebiglead.com

I am being facetious of course.  You’ll probably never see more ink about a meaningless spring training game than this one, but phenom Bryce Harper‘s professional debut is worth the effort.  In the Nats 9-3 win yesterday over the Mets Harper batted twice and struck out twice.  He faced two journeymen relievers and fell victim to the same culpret that caused him to strike out frequently in the AFL: the off speed pitch.

It doesn’t mean he cannot hit them; it means he is still a jumpy, antsy 18-yr old who is probably like a kid in the candy store right now and he is over-eager to swing and show everyone who he is.  The key to hitting off speed stuff is patience.  You have to look for the fastball and adjust for the offspeed stuff.  He’s not there yet, and that (in the absence of all the other reasons) is the primary reason he needs minor league time.  He needs time to get into the routine, to learn how to play games every day for 4 months, to adjust for slumps, to play the game “slow” instead of excited fast.

Remember, if he was playing by the rules he’d be in his senior year of high school right now.  That’s hard to fathom really.  And we gloss over that fact all the time (kinda like the way we glossed over Michelle Wie competing on the LPGA as a 13 yr old.  A 13yr old!  She made the cut at the Womens US Open at the same age you and I were in 7th grade.  Still kinda amazing).  So, lets enjoy him in major league camp while he’s there and then wait for him to (hopefully) tear up Hagerstown and Potomac this summer.

Morse did nothing but mash in 2010. Why are the Nats trying so hard to NOT use him in 2011? Photo hardballtalk.nbcsports.com

(Ironically, as I was penning/researching this posting all three leading Nats beat writers wrote similar articles.  Hmm.  Perhaps we’re all onto something.  Here’s links to Zuckerman, Goessling and Kilgore‘s similar articles.  Something must have happened in camp today…)

(Coincidentally, i’m also assuming that Rick Ankiel is a backup/fall back plan and nothing more.  He’s had exactly ONE impressive hitting season and was worse than Nyjer Morgan last year splitting time between the Royals, the Braves and the DL.  But it is concievable that Ankiel is “competing” for the LF job as well).

Mike Morse turned out to be one of the bright storylines for the team at the plate last year, posting a very respectable 2010 slash line of .289/.352/.519 and hitting 15 homers in just 293 at bats for a season OPS+ of 133 (3rd on the team behind Dunn and Zimmerman, just ahead of Willingham).   He’s a former infielder who moves around well despite being a big guy and can play four positions relatively easily (both corner infield and both corner outfield positions).

Roger Bernadina meanwhile posted this 2010 slash line: .246/.307/.384 in 461 plate appearances.  He had 11 homers and provided very good outfield defense with capabilities at all three positions.

So, given that the Nats traded away two of their best four hitters last year and clearly seem set to take a small step backwards in offensive production, why exactly is the presumed starter in left field not automatically going to be Morse?

The arguments i’ve heard are variations of three themes: lefty-righty splits at the plate, defense and balance of our lefty-righty hitters on the bench.  Lets discuss each item.

1. Lefty-Righty Splits: the knock on Morse is that he cannot hit right handed pitchers.  He mashes lefties but struggles against righties.  Is this true?  According to his 2010 splits, he clearly hits lefties better (he hit .295 versus .287 against right handers) but more significantly his slugging percentage split is significantly different (.466 versus .625 against lefties).  So clearly he doesn’t hit for as much power against right handers.

The thing is, his performance as a righty versus other righties is still pretty good as compared to the league.  His “sOPS+” values (sOPS+ being his Split league adjusted OPS value) was 126, meaning that he’s about 26% better than the league average for righty-righty matchups.

So, lets quickly look at Bernadina’s splits.  Turns out, Bernadina actually hits lefties BETTER than righties, but his best slugging figure (.429 against lefties) is worse than Morse’s weakest slugging figure.

Conclusion: Morse may be slightly weaker against righties, but he’s better against either arm than Bernadina.  He is closer to a #5 hitter in terms of power while Bernadina is a #2/#7 hitter.

2. Defense: Bernadina is clearly a better outfielder, and has a fantastic career UZR/150 rating in left.  He posted a 13.3 for 2010 and has a career 11.8.  Meanwhile Morse isn’t exactly Reggie Jackson patrolling left field but he’s not bad either.  In very limited LF career stats he has a 15.2 uzr/150 rating in left.  He’s significantly worse in Right … but then again that’s why we bought 7 years of Jayson Werth.

Meanwhile, Morse is also a very good first baseman and has logged time at SS and 3B.  Bernadina is purely an outfielder but can play center in a pinch.

But here’s the thing; you don’t NEED a star quality defender in left field!  Not at the expense of greatly needed offense anyway.  That’s why Josh Willingham still has a job and that’s why Manny Ramirez was able to play in Boston (and in the NL) for so long.

Conclusion: Bernadina’s better in left, but both bring defensive flexibilty to the table.

3. Lefty-Right balance in the lineup.  Morse is a righty, Bernadina a lefty.  Lets look at the probable 25-man roster out-field players.

• Lefty only: Morgan, Bernadina, LaRoche, Ankiel
• Righty only: Pudge, Ramos/Flores, Desmond, Zimmerman, Werth, Hairston, Gonzalez
• Switch Hitters: Espinosa

But, of the presumed starters only Morgan and LaRoche are lefties.  Espinosa switch-hits but he’s probably stuck in the 8-hole until he improves on last year’s tailoff at the plate.  So, if we start Morse we’re looking at a lineup that probably goes L-R-R-L-R-R-R-S-Pitcher.  Three straight right-handed hitters after LaRoche.  If we replace Morse with Bernadina the lineup probably goes L-R-R-L-R-L-R-S-Pitcher, a much better balance.

Of course, we also have one Matt Stairs in camp and people are talking about him making the team as a designated pinch hitter.  I have an awful hard time believing this, but if it happens (at the probable expense of Albert Gonzalez), then having Morse on the bench as a right-handed hitting counterpart to Stairs makes a bit of sense.  Certainly having Bernadina, Ankiel AND Stairs on the bench makes no sense.  But, since Stairs brings no defensive value to the team we’d be incredibly thin at infield backup positions without Morse in the fold.

Conclusion: unclear until we see how Stairs looks in spring training.

In conclusion, there are arguments on both sides for/against either Morse or Bernadina in left.  Perhaps we’ll be surprised by Morse in left and Bernadina in center with Ankiel an able backup (certainly a possibility if Morgan does not improve on last year’s performance).  But I find it hard to believe we’re going to sit Morse over Bernadina or Ankiel at the beginning of the season.

Is Wang bamboozling the Nats? See last question/answer. Photo copyright the Washington Nationals

(Nats blogger Harper at Nationals Baseball used to post his own answers to Ladson’s inbox questions in the past.  I always loved the idea and have been emulating it.  See here for last week’s version.  Thanks to the commenter who let me provide proper attribution…)

Q: With Adam Dunn and Josh Willingham out of the picture, do you think Jayson Werth and Adam LaRoche can pick up the slack on offense?

A: Not likely.  In Dunn and Willingham we have given up an awful lot of offense.  Dunn’s 38 homers, 103 rbis and 138 ops+, while Willingham’s injury-shortened season had him producing at a 129 ops+ rate.  Both these figures were top-10 in the NL (if qualifying).  Werth posted a career-best 145 OPS+ last  year in a hitters park; before that he was routinely producing at the 128-130 OPS+ range.  Meanwhile LaRoche is coming off a career-worst OPS+ value of just 106 (albeit in a pitcher’s park in Arizona).  He can be expected to produce a bit better than that, but he’s also an incredibly slow starter.

Remember; Werth and Laroche were brought in not only for offense but for their stellar defense.  Rizzo seems convinced that you can make up for less offense with better defense.  2011 will be a grand experiment.

Q: The other day the Twins announced that they were open to trading Francisco Liriano. Because he wasn’t able to bring in a No. 1 starter, do you think general manager Mike Rizzo would go after Liriano pretty hard? I have a feeling the Twins might want Ian Desmond though.

A: Liriano is an ace-quality starter who is one of the best strikeout pitchers in the game.  He should be completely recovered from injury.  If offered Liriano straight up for Desmond you have to make that deal (we move Espinosa to short, play hairston for a year and bring up Lombardozzi or Kobernicus more quickly).  Desmond has promise but he’s not Derek Jeter.

Q: It looks like Albert Pujols will be available via trade or free agency. What are the odds the Nationals get him? And don’t say LaRoche to me, because he’s a fine player, but he’s not Pujols.

A: Pujols won’t be traded.  That would be the equivalent of St. Louis telling its fans that they purposely got rid of the best hitter since Ted Williams.  He’ll hit FA, and St. Louis will come up with the money.  Or maybe they won’t and they’ll offer him enough money that the franchise looks like they tried and that the blame will fall on Pujols for being greedy.

Even if he DID hit free agency, I think a 10 year $280M contract (probably what it takes to get him) would be a franchise crippling mistake for the Nats.  In the last few years of that deal he’ll be an aging defensive liability stuck with an untradable amount of money.  You cannot have half your payroll tied up in two guys.  Ask Texas how that went when A-Rod made $25M and the rest of the team combined made the same.  The Nats need to stick to the plan, develop players and grow the payroll organically.

Q: If the Nationals are to trade Nyjer Morgan, could they trade him to the D-backs for Justin Upton?

A: Chalk this up to “dumb trade rumors.”  Why in the world would Arizona trade away a cost contained young proven major league outfielder for a headcase, malcontent, undisciplined player who only had a .319 OBP from the lead off position in 2010?  Upton’s name was all over trade rumors a few months back and he didn’t move because Arizona would have to be blown away by the offer.  We’re talking multiple high-end prospects, not a below replacement-level centerfielder.

Q: Michael Young recently asked the Rangers to trade him. If Texas is willing to eat some salary and take a Danny Espinosa or a Stephen Lombardozzi in exchange, Young would be a great acquisition for D.C. What do you think?

A: Where would he play?  He’s too old and slow to feature at middle infield any longer, and we already have a 1st baseman and 3rd baseman under contract.  He’s declining at the plate. Oh and he makes a ridiculous amount of money and he has a limited trade list of teams he’ll accept trades to. And he earns his 10 and 5 rights soon, giving him full no-trade.

The Young-Texas situation is a mess, but you cannot blame Young for acting the way he has.  He is a leader on that team, has been there forever.  He has moved positions several times (for Kinsler, Soriano and Andrus), and then the team goes and buys a 3rd baseman in Beltre and tells Young he’s going to be mr utility/occasional DH guy.  We’re talking about a 6-time allstar with a gold glove at shortstop in 2008.  The Rangers really should have managed expectations with him prior to acquiring his replacement.  Poor general management there.

Q: Matt Stairs, who has excelled over the years as a pinch-hitter, is a non-roster invitee with the Nationals. Should Rizzo devote a roster space to someone relegated to pinch-hitting duties?

A: No way.  Stairs got a roster invite on a complete shot-in-the-dark whim.  Why would we possibly waste a 25-man spot on a guy who can only pinch hit?  Doesn’t this completely go against Rizzo’s pro-defense concept?  If you have Morse in the super-utility role he can come out and get the big hit … but he can also play 4 positions for you.  Stairs can play one: the bench.

Q: Why did Rizzo go out of his way to tell the media that Chien-Ming Wang would be 100-percent ready for Spring Training, when everyone knew he wouldn’t be?

A: Maybe it was a Taiwanese translator error.  Because 4 hours into spring training we’re already hearing that Wang will start on the DL because he doesn’t have the shoulder strength.

Well, what the hell was he doing all winter?  Wasn’t the idea for him to GAIN the shoulder strength he needed over the winter months and show up in Viera ready to go?  Now we’re hearing that he’s “taking it slow” and expects to start on the DL.  Now, if he is healthy and can contribute, then starting on the DL actually helps the team (Wang is out of options and cannot just be assigned to AAA without visiting waivers).

It is concerning though; did we just give him more money to sit around and rehab another season?  I’m starting to wonder if this isn’t some sort of immoral story he’s told the team to milk one more paycheck out of baseball before returning home.

The Chosen One ... in Center? Photo: Sports Illustrated

CBSsports.com’s Evan Brunell has an interesting story out there quoting our precocious #1 draft pick Bryce Harper about a possible position change coming.  Apparently the plan is to move the kid to Center Field and groom him there instead of at Right.  And it is music to my ears.

I initially thought that Jayson Werth would make way and move to Left when the kid was ready to come up.  But that really makes little sense for Werth and for the team.  Werth is a plus defender in right, has a good arm and can man that position for most of his 7 year contract.  You can “hide” poorer defensive players in left field (see Ramirez, Manny) since they don’t have to stop the first to third base runner.  Meanwhile, we clearly have an issue in Center field in terms of productivity and there are not a lot of upper-end defensive centerfielders in this league who can also hit.  Certainly there are very very few who can hit for power.  If Harper can play a serviceable center field that might be the best possible move for him.

Using rotoworld.com’s depth chart rankings, here’s the canonical list of starting centerfielders in the league right now, organized by their hitting prowness:

Light Hitting speedster types: Jacoby Ellisbury, Alex Rios, Austin Jackson, Lorenzo Cain, Peter Borjous, Denard Span, Coco Crisp, Julio Borbon, Rajai Davis, Dexter Fowler, Chris Coughlan (if he can transition to the position), Carlos Gomez, Nyger Morgan, Michael Bourn, Cameron Maybin, Andres Torres,

Slightly better than light hitting guys: Shane Victorino, Andrew McCutchen,

Medium Power (20 homer guys): Adam Jones, Curtis Granderson, Franklin Gutierrez, BJ Upton (maybe), Nate McLough (when he’s not in AAA), Chris Young, Marlon Byrd, Drew Stubbs, Colby Rasums (if LaRussa will play him).

Power hitters/30-30 guys: Grady Sizemore (if healthy), Carlos Beltran (when he was younger), Matt Kemp.

So, basically there’s ONE center fielder in the game who seems to be a safe bet to hit 30 homers on a regular basis.  More than half the starters in Center in baseball will be lucky to hit more than a handful of homers this year.

If Harper shows up in the league with 40 homer power, he could be a very special guy.

The closest Wang has ever come to pitching for our franchise. Photo Nats320/Jeff Saffelle

After asking myself the question, “Does player XYZ have any more options?” several times this year I decided to update Brian Oliver’s 2010 version of this post (available on his cherished yet idle website) for this year’s version of the Nats 40-man roster.

Here’s the key rules when it comes to Options (read here for a longer narrative form missive).

• If a player is on the 40-man but not on the 25-man (active) roster, then they have to be placed on “optional assignment” to the minors for the year and they “burn” an option year.
• If a player spends 20 days or less in the minors in a given year, then an option is not “burned.”
• A player only gets three such “option years” while under contract to a given team; if they have been on optional assignment 3 years and are attempted to be optioned to the minors a 4th time, they are subject to waivers.
• If a players has less than 5 years of professional service (at any level), the club can petition and usually obtain a forth optional year.  See this link at Baseball America for clarity on this (Thanks Sue Dienem).  The only way this really happens is if a guy gets added to the 40-man immediately after the draft and doesn’t languish in the minors, or if a player has a ton of injuries that eat up his minor league seasons.
• If a player spends the entire year on the DL, or if the only minor league time is on a rehab assignment, then an option year is NOT burned.
• If a player has MORE than 5 years of service, then according to the Basic Agreement that player can only be optionally assigned with his written approval.  In other words, the player can refuse such an assignment and immediately become a free agent.

And, before we go any further, here’s a great link defining how service time is calculated on mlbtraderumors.com.  This is important, because the credited years of service directly impacts whether or not a team can request a fourth option year.  The policy for both service time and Optional assignments are defined in the Collective Bargaining Agreement, Section XXI, though further details about Optional assignments are located in attachments, letters from attorneys and other sections of the CBA.

We’ll divide the 40-man roster candidates into several sections.  In all cases the service times listed are at the beginning of 2010, since Cot’s site has not  yet updated them for the 2010 season.  I didn’t bother to try to do the calculations, since they’re incredibly complex.  Years of service are listed in years.days, and a “year” of service is exactly 172 days.  So for example Pudge’s 18.109 means he has 18 full seasons plus an additional 109 days.

Section 1: Veterans who can refuse demotion based on Service Time.

Once a player has 5 or more years of Major League Service, the can refuse assignments to the minor leagues.  Therefore options are irrelevant on our older players; if they perform badly enough to be removed from the 25-man roster, odds are they’d demand to be released and would not accept an assignment to AAA.

The only real 25-man question mark for me is Todd Coffey.  I’m listing him here assuming that the full season in Milwaukee put him over the 5 year threshold for service.  This is notable though; it virtually guarantees him one of the 7 bullpen spots and means the likelihood of someone like Cole Kimball, Adam Carr, Colin Balester, or Craig Stammen making the roster is significantly lowered.

Section 2: Players who have Options available but are MLB entrenched

Strasburg is a special case; he’ll move immediately to the 60-day DL and probably stay there til september, at which point he’ll make some rehab starts and likely not ever get to use an optional assignment.  As for the rest,  theoretically any of these guys could be sent down mid-2011 without any say, much as we did with John Lannan mid last year.  However, they are all slated to be starters and to be important members of the 2011 team.  I could see Espinosa or Morgan hitting a rough patch at the plate and getting sent down to work on their swings, but the rest should be fixtures at the MLB level going forward.  Zimmerman may have graduated to the first section but his option status is pretty much irrelevant; he’s our marquee player and won’t be optioned to the minors.  He’s halfway to being a 10 and 5 guy (meaning he gets automatic no-trade status).

Section 3: Players who have Options Available and thus will Jeopardize their ability to make the 25-man roster out of spring.

First off, I believe Luis Atilano is going to be the next 40-man victim, but even if he was retained in favor of another he has little shot of making the team out of the spring, and will eventually be cut loose from the 40-man roster.  Maya‘s status will depend on his spring training but in all likelihood he’s starting the year in AAA (see the next section for some reasoning as to why).   Whoever loses the backup catcher role will burn the last of their remaining options, making a trade even more likely in the near future for one of Ramos or Flores.  Detwiler‘s well timed injury last year allowed him to pitch in the minors on an extended rehab assignment, then get called back up to the Majors without burning an option; that last option probably gets burned in 2010 as he seems 7th or 8th in line for 5 rotation spots.  Similarly to Detwiler, Garrett Mock‘s injury diagnosis so soon after being optioned (after blowing his first start) allowed the Nats to cancel the option, put him on the 60-day DL and save his services for one more year.

Lastly both Balester and Stammen have options left and both may end up using them this year; I see these two players competing for the long man/spot starter position with Coffey and Henry Rodriguez, which is bad news since Rodriguez is out of options (see next section).  2/11/11 update: Stammen may not have burned an option in 2010 by virtue of spending fewer than 20 days in the minors, per Sue Dinem.

Section 4: Players who have No Options available

A caveat before moving on; while some of these players have no options left, some of them have so little service time that the team may petition the league for a fourth option year.  Such petitions (if i’m reading the rules correctly) do not occur until the end of spring training and thus we do not know who may be subject to this rule.

Now, here’s where the roster decisions become rather interesting.  Lots of these players listed here are in open competitions for spots this spring and their lack of options may be telling.  Lets go section by section:

• Chein-Ming Wang:  He’s seemingly just a few days short of the 5 year requirement to refuse assignment, but the Nats wouldn’t possibly have given him a major league deal if they were out of options and essentially had to guarantee him a major league spot.  My guess is either the Nats are going to look to start him on the DL, claiming some post-rehab injury if he doesn’t make the starting rotation or peitition the league for a fourth option year.
• Tom Gorzelanny: he has no options left, is signed to a $2M contract and will be either the 5th starter or a long man out of the bullpen.  This fact pretty much guarantees that he makes the opening day roster and almost certainly guarantees that Maya, Wang and Detwiler (barring spring training injury or huge shock) are starting the year in the minors.
• Burnett, Morse, Bernadina, Clippard: All four of these guys are expected to make the roster rather easily, so no option issues should exist.  The one question mark could be Morse, who despite hitting the cover off the ball last year watched the Nats systematically bring in player after player to compete with him for his bench role in 2011.  We signed Ankiel, we traded for Corey Brown, and then invited four other outfielders to spring training.  My guess is that the Nats will keep 5 outfielders though and he’ll be safe.
• Slaten signed a relatively modest deal for $695K for the year, and really only faces competition from one guy for the loogy spot (Severino, who has never pitched in the majors before).  So the odds are high that he makes the team in that role.  He’s out of options, has been DFA’d in the past and passed through waivers with our team once before, but his performance last year would probably result in his being claimed this year.
• Alberto Gonzalez: He also settled pre-arbitration for $700k but hit badly last year, made noise about wanting to be a starter, and watched the Nats bring in Hairston, Cora, and Cintron to compete with him for the utility infielder.  If he doesn’t have a good spring, there is little value in keeping him on the 40-man roster.
• Henry Rodriguez: out of options, and someone we gave up Willingham to get, so he’s basically guaranteed a 25-man spot.  This (as noted above) essentially eliminates the possibility of someone like Kimball, Carr, or Stammen to make the team.

2/11/11 update: Sue Dinem points out that Bernadina did NOT burn an option in 2010, having only spent a few days in the minors.  This is important as it may lead to him to be sent down if we decide to keep one extra outfielder.

Section 5:rule 5 pickups that have no chance of making the team

The two remaining players on the 40-man right now not previously mentioned are our two rule5 pickups Elvin Ramirez and Brian Broderick.  I feel neither guy has any chance of making our 25-man roster, and both will be either returned or a trade negotiated.  Because both were never on a 40-man, they both have zero service time and all 3 options remaining at this point.

Coincidentally, here’s my prediction on the opening day 25-man roster, based on the above analysis:

• SP: LHernandez, Zimmermann, Lannan, Marquis, Gorzelanny
  RP: Burnett, Slaten, Clippard, Storen, Balester, HRodriguez, Coffey
  C: IRodriguez, Flores
  INF: Desmond, RZimmerman, AGonzalez, Espinosa, LaRoche, Hairston
  OF: Bernadina, Morgan, Morse, Werth, Ankiel

5 outfielders, Flores over Ramos and Gorzelanny over Maya and Detwiler.

Jesus Flores' general reaction to his injury troubles for the past two seasons. Photo Toni Sandys/Washington Post

MASN Nats beat writer Ben Goessling touched on this same issue back in December and came to the same conclusion that I have: The Washington Nationals may have some catching depth to spare when April 1st rolls around.  We have Ivan Rodriguez and Wilson Ramos as the incumbents (having DFA’d last year’s backup Wil Nieves, since signed by Milwaukee).  But we also have former starter Jesus Flores coming back from injury and seemingly healthy.   Plus our #1 hitting prospect not named Bryce Harper is Derek Norris, also a catcher.

At the end of the spring, I think we’re going to see Flores winning out the 2nd catcher position (by virtue of his age, his experience with the team, and the memory of his 130 OPS+ numbers he put up in 2009 before getting hurt).  But there’s little value in having one of the better Catching prospects in all of baseball languishing in Syracuse while we wait to see if Pudge or Flores suffers an injury.

I can see the Nats moving Ramos or Flores if the right deal comes about.  But, the Nats probably need an entire spring training of production out of both guys to prove to other teams that they are healthy and viable candidates.  Flores might be a tough sell to teams since he missed most of the last two seasons and seems brittle … but his numbers when he’s healthy are middle-of-the-order.  Meanwhile the entire league knows what Ramos is capable of and he may be a better trade candidate.

Also factoring in is the development of Derek Norris; at this point we’re all assuming he’s going to start in AA and be ready to take over one of the two MLB catcher spots when Pudge’s contract expires after this season.  If Norris takes a huge step back or suffers a season-ending injury, then nobody is going anywhere and the Nats will plan for Ramos/Flores platoon in 2012.

The Nats still have needs at the MLB level for 2011 though; you can argue that we really could improve at LF, CF and in the starting rotation.  Meanwhile, there are several teams out there going into 2011 with question marks at catcher.  Looking at these depth charts league wide, here’s some possible trade partners (barring injury to existing guys of course):

• LA Angels: Jeff Mathis and Hank Conger are their current catcher starters.  Who?  Conger is very young but neither hit the Mendoza line for 2010.  But the Angels so badly bungled this off season they may be reticent to make any more trades.
• LA Dodgers: Gave up on Russell Martin, so going into 2011 with journeyman Rod Barajas (career .239 hitter) and AJ Ellis (turns 30 in april and has a grand total of 141 major league plate appearances to his credit).  They have starter depth (Padilla looks to be odd man out and would improve our rotation).
• Boston: Jarrod Saltalamacchia is listed as the starter over the ancient Jason Varitek; neither guy can actually hit and both are defensive liabilities.  Boston is clearly making a playoff push and may want a top-end defensive guy behind the plate for the playoffs.
• Colorado: Chris Iannetta only hit .197 last year but has shown glimpses of power in the past.  Colorado let their 2010 starter (Soto) walk but they may have a hole at the Catcher position.
• Milwaukee: we could convince the Brewers to upgrade from up and comer Jonathan Lucroy for their 2011 playoff push.  But they’ve emptied their farm system and probably have little we would want in return.
• NY Yankees: are they really expecting Russell Martin to be the savior?  Or is there going to be a C/DH platoon with him and Posada (more likely the answer).
• NY Mets: catcher has been a thorn in this team ever since the Nats “stole” Flores from them in the rule5 draft in 2006.  Now they’re going into 2011 with the very young Josh Thole as the starter.  But the Mets are a total mess right now and probably don’t make any more moves until the Madoff lawsuits are settled.
• Kansas City, Pittsburgh, San Diego and Houston teams that *could* use catcher depth but which would never purchase it given their current rebuilding status (or cheapness as a franchise).

It should be interested to see if a trade surfaces early on into the season.  We’ll see.

I cannot recall which National’s blogger used to do this (providing his/her own answers to the questions in Bill Ladson’s mailbag) but I thought i’d give it a shot.

Here’s the latest installment of his mailbag.  And here’s how i’d answer the questions he took.

Q: When does Ryan Zimmerman get a contract extension similar to the one Troy Tulowitzki received from the Rockies?

A: Probably never; odds are that he leaves our franchise for greener pastures (read, a competing team) where he immediately becomes a perennial MVP candidate and solidifies his Hall of Fame candidacy.  Because as it stands now, he’s winning only the title of “most under-rated player in the game.”  Go look at Mark Teixeira‘s stats and season-ending accomplishments just before and just after his New York signing.  Or ask Bert Blyleven why it took so long to get into the hall after playing for crummy teams his whole career.

Q: I think center fielder Nyjer Morgan played OK last year and deserves to be the leadoff hitter. I believe no one else on the current roster can hit at the top of the lineup. What do you think?

A: Morgan regressed both professionally and statistically last year, and Rizzo should have tried harder to find a replacement.  What’s probably going to happen is Morgan starting the season as a starter, he’ll hit .220 for a month and a half, and we’ll banish him to AAA before non-tendering him next off season.  I feel we should have tried harder to replace him in the off-season.

Q: If Bryce Harper has a great Spring Training, do you think the Nationals will keep him on the 25-man roster or send him to the Minors?

A: No way for one simple reason: “Super 2 status.”  Best case scenario has Harper blowing through the low-A and high-A leagues, then starting 2012 in AA before getting called up June 1st to delay his arbitration clock and play left field for the team (or perhaps moving Werth to left and starting in RF).

Q: Do you think Chien-Ming Wang could return to the form that made him one of the top pitchers with the Yankees? What is the latest on his physical condition?

A: Signs point to no after a lost 2010 season.  At least he’s less of a payroll burden this year when he misses the entire season.  By all accounts he’s supposedly at 100% but nobody knows what we’ll get until he starts throwing in Viera.  I could see him flashing promise in Viera then spending 3 months on the DL.

Q: In 2007, the Nationals came to camp with so many starting pitchers that they were drawing attention from the local media. This year, the Nationals have a similar situation as far as the number of starting pitchers. Can you tell the difference between the two years? Why should Nats fans be encouraged by this year’s class?

A: Definitely disagree here; unlike in 2007 there is almost no starter competition planned.  We have a presumptuous opening day roster of starters and only an injury or a huge spring upset will change that.  Lots of the Spring Training invite guys are going to be buried in AAA or were invited as professional courtesy for past years of service.  As far as encouragement for this year’s rotation; it is marginally better than the 5 guys who started 2010 and has some potential for improving with prospects that we value well.  It isn’t a league-leading rotation but it has some basis for growth towards 2012/2013.

Q: Do you think the Nationals need one more big-time bat or proven hitter to get them to .500 in 2011?

A: No, they need 3 more proven starters.  See Giants, San Francisco for building a winning team with a poor offense.

Q: What are the chances of the Nats making a run at Prince Fielder next offseason? It seems that one more big bat would make them a very good team.

A: Like the movie, the answer here is “Less than Zero.”  Rizzo wants UZR/150 plus-plus fielders across the board, and Fielder is absolutely NOT that.  Ladsen say’s we’re committed to LaRoche; I’d disagree with that sentiment too.  He is a 2 year stop-gap until either Chris Marrero matriculates and earns his spot or another option becomes available.

JD Martin's days could be numbered with the team. Photo courtesy of natsnewsnetwork.blogspot.com

1/19/11 Update: with the signing of reliever Todd Coffey, the team now appears to be three men over the limit.  Oh, and about 2 hours later the signing of infielder Jerry Hairston now requiring four guys to be dropped or traded.  One player has been cleared off the 40-man; the predicted JD Martin given his outright release unfortunately later in the afternoon.

Unless I’ve forgotten how to count, and unless I really do not understand the 40-man roster rules, the Nationals have been over the limit for nearly two weeks now.  They signed Adam LaRoche on 1/4/11, then made the announcement official on 1/7/11.  Answer: per Zuckerman’s posting today, “corresponding [40-man roster] moves don’t have to be made until the contract for the new player is formally processed at MLB headquarters in New York.”  LaRoche’s contract didn’t hit NY til today, so the Martin release is the corresponding move.  Still 3 to go.

Yet, here we are on 1/19/11 and no corresponding move has occurred yet.  The Nationals’ 40-man roster has been above 40 ever since.  I believe teams have to make immediate moves but do not have to make them public; a player could have been designated for assignment on 1/7/11, at which point the team has 10 days to actually decide what to do with him.  So perhaps tomorrow 1/19/11 (since we had a holiday mixed in there?) we’ll have an answer.

Likewise, Tom Gorzelanny will also require a corresponding move, since none of the 3 players traded for him were on the 40-man to start with.  With his addition (yes the trade has been announced but it will not be official until all physicals are passed) we’ll be at 42 (43 with the Coffey signing).

So, who on the current 40-man roster is next to go?  If we need to clear four spots without a major trade, then my initial guesses are:

1. Justin Maxwell: I know that Maxwell is a local and is a fan favorite, but the fact remains that we now have at least 5 outfielders with major league time last year (Werth, Ankiel, Morgan, Bernadina, and Morse) that seem to be ahead of Maxwell on the depth chart, plus a 6th outfielder prospect who will get a look prior to Maxwell at this point (CBrown).  He’s never produced at the MLB level and is now far too old to be considered a prospect.

2. J.D. Martin: Martin is probably the right-handed starter version of Maxwell.  He’s fallen down the depth chart, his name isn’t being mentioned as even competing for a rotation spot out of spring, and the argument can be made that he’s not in the top 5 players to make the AAA rotation.  He’s always had ok numbers when he’s pitched in the majors but in a power-arm league, spots for soft-tossing slight-of-frame right handers are limited.

3. The third and fourth spots are tougher.  I think #3 may end up being someone like Luis Atilano.  Mediocre MLB numbers in 2010, coming off of injury, he probably can sneak through waivers as Chico did and get assigned to AAA to try to get back.  He’ll be 26, slightly older than you want in a prospect, and he’s clearly not in the MLB rotation battle for 2011.

4. Atahualpa Severino: he has no mlb experience and is behind Slaten in the loogy battle right now.  However, other teams may see that we just added him to the 40-man last year and might take a look.  He’s a bit old for a prospect with no MLB time and he could slip through waivers.

This 4th spot is a stretch though, and I think honestly a better way to clear space may be a set of prospects trade for a veteran.  I don’t see at this point how Morse or Detwiler makes the 25-man roster, so perhaps we should look instead to package these guys for a player.

Other candidates (and their reasons for keeping them over Atilano and Martin right now) could be Mock (lively fastball, good stuff and a favorite of the organization), Martis (still young and still could prosper),  and Marrero (still too early to give up on him; needs one more season to prove he belongs but he’s clearly blocked for 2 years by LaRoche; could be a trade candidate).

The Nats lucked out and get to retain Chico's services after his DFA. Photo: Commons.wikimedia.org

The signings of Chien-Ming Wang and Rick Ankiel of last week forced the hands of the Nats, putting them 2 players above the 40-man limitation on the aptly named 40-man roster.

(Coincidentally, there was some confusion, based on the announcement of the resigning of minor leaguer Ryan Mattheus, about whether or not he was also on the 40-man, but beat writer Zuckerman cleared the situation up in his post yesterday:

For those wondering whether they needed to drop another person to make room for right-hander Ryan Mattheus, a club official explained that while Mattheus did sign a major-league contract this fall, he did so before getting outrighted to Syracuse. Basically, he’s a minor-leaguer not on the 40-man roster with a major-league contract.

Thus, we only had to clear TWO spots not three, as was speculated all week in the blogger community).

To make room on the roster, the Nats DFA’d Matt Chico and Aaron Thompson this week.  Chico made his way through the waivers process and was assigned to AAA, but we found out this morning that Thompson was claimed by Pittsburgh and we have lost our trade “bounty” for Nick Johnson from a couple years back.

Now, not that Thompson’s performance in the minors the last couple years merited his place in the future plans of the Nationals (he was pretty much awful in AA this year: 4-13 with a 5.80era, 1.59 whip and a 95/53 k/bb ratio in 136 2/3 innings) but I find the choices of players DFA’d curious.  Left handed pitchers are the hardest positions to fill, and yet we’ve released two of them.

Why risk two left-handed pitchers, one of which is still quite young and was once a coveted prospect, instead of players on the roster who clearly guys who are no longer in the plans of the team?

Cases in point:

1. Justin Maxwell.  He’s 27, he’s never come close to putting up decent numbers in the majors (career slash line: .201/.319/.379 in 260 PAs), and he’s now 8th out of 8 outfielders on our 40 man outfielder depth chart (in rough order: Werth, Morgan, Bernadina, Morse, Ankiel, Harper, CBrown and him).  Are we expecting Maxwell to make the team out of spring training?  Do we really think he’s going to beat out Bernadina, Morse, or Ankiel?  Didn’t we just acquire Brown from the A’s to eventually compete for and/or win the left fielder job?

I like Maxwell; he’s a local guy and has shown flashes of brilliance.  But he’s too old to make sense in Syracuse and its time to move on.

2. JD Martin: He will be 28 by next spring training and has career major league numbers of 6-9, 4.32 era, 1.396 whip and a 96 era+.  Not bad (actually better numbers than guys like Mock, Stammen and Detwiler) but nothing special.  He is a soft-tossing slightly built right handed pitcher in a league that is trending towards large bodied, power throwing right handers as the norm.  What exactly does Martin have that can’t be easily replicated from any AAA rotation in the minors?

And more importantly (as with Maxwell) where exactly does Martin fit into the plans for the rotation next year?  I have him ranked either 13th or 14th out of our 14 Starters right now (in rough order of value to the team Strasburg, Zimmermann, Lannan, Marquis, LHernandez, Maya, Stammen, Detwiler, Martis, Mock, Atilano,Wang, Martin, Broderick).  In other words, he’s going to have trouble cracking the AAA rotation (by my guesses, Chico, Mock, Atilano, Martis and Detwiler right now).

Dropping guys off the 40-man is always a risky affair.  Earlier this off-season lots of blogger noise was heard from the curious dropping of Juan Jaime, who was subsequently claimed by Arizona.  At the time we still had several players who we KNEW we were not going to offer arbitration (specifically Wil Nieves), so why drop a young hard-thrower?  That move didn’t make sense then and doesn’t make sense now.

Today’s moves cost us a prospect needlessly.  Lets hope the team picks the right players the next time they make a move.

Mike Rizzo answering the latest question about where the money is coming from for the Werth contract. Photo: centerfieldgate.com

Each year heading into the off-season, I make up a transactional “to-do” list for the team (as if I were the GM).  Essentially you look at the roster and kind of work backwards.  Based on the way things looked at the end of 2010, the Nationals seemed set on:

• C (Pudge, Ramos)
• most of the infield: 2b (Espinosa), SS (Desmond), 3B (Zimmerman)
• LF (Willingham)
• 3-4 starters (Lannan, Marquis, LHernandez, Zimmermann), and
• several relievers (Clippard, Burnett, Storen)

So, given this, here’s what I listed as off season priorities and where we stand post the Winter Meetings (and counting all the rumors and scuttlebutt we’ve been hearing):

Fantasy

• Power hitting reliable RF
• Top-of-the-rotation Starting Pitcher
• Better Centerfielder/Leadoff Hitter

1. In what was easily the most surprising move this team has done since relocating from Montreal, we acquired a front-line marquee FA in Jayson Werth, satisfying the “power hitting RF” fantasy requirement.  Yes there are concerns about the contract’s length and value, but hey, we’re a better team for getting him.

2. Rizzo has definitely made mention of wanting to acquire a “top of the rotation” starter but they are hard to come by this off season.  Cliff Lee is the target, and from there the list dwindled quickly to include guys who were middle of the road veterans with question marks (Vazquez, Pavano), FA starters that weren’t exactly planning on going anywhere (Lilly, Kuroda, de La Rosa, Arroyo, Garland, Padilla) and incredibly risky alternatives (Webb, Darvish, Francis).

3. Lastly, despite my desire to upgrade from Nyjer Morgan in center and leadoff (for reasons that include discipline, chemistry and performance), Rizzo seems set on the guy for the time being.  I would not be surprised to see no more movement in this area.  I advocated trading Willingham to Boston for possible spare-part outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury in a previous post, but despite Willingham’s offensive capabilities Boston may also value defense and may not really be interested in acquiring more bats this off season.

Reality

• First Baseman
• 1-2 Veteran FA pitchers
• Utility Middle Infielder

1. Acquiring a first baseman included the possibility of re-signing Adam Dunn, despite all indications that it was never to happen.  Rizzo clearly will take less power for more defense at first, and we seem destined to sign Adam LaRoche (after missing out on Carlos Pena, the player I was absolutely sure we’d get).  Frankly, for my money I’d rather have LaRoche.  He’ll sign a 2 year deal for less than any of Dunn, Pena, Konerko or Huff would have signed for, he hits for power and he is a plus defender.  I think he’s perfect until we figure out if Chris Marrero or someone even more remote (like high-A stud hitter and Nats minor leaguer of the year in 2010 Tyler Moore) becomes a possibility.  A final thought; I do NOT want to be left with Derrek Lee as the solution.  He’s a right handed hitter on a team that is now full of them.  Zimmerman, Willingham, Werth all righties; we need a lefty slugger to break up the middle of our batting order.

2. I still see the acquisition of one or two veteran FA pitchers on the horizon.  I can see us (unless someone foolishly offers him $10M) signing Brandon Webb on a one year flier.  I can see us re-signing Wang to a minor league deal with an invite to spring training.

3. The backup middle infielder is a lower priority but still important.  If Desmond/Espinosa are holding down the starting spots and Alberto Gonzalez is begrudingly serving as the primary glove-man backup, we still need a second player that can do middle infield.  Willie Harris has been that player but he really tailed off last season.  Adam Kennedy served as the backup for the right side of the infield but he clearly wants to start.  I was lobbying for Pete Orr as a nice cheap candidate; he had always produced for us when called up, could play 2nd, 3rd or even outfield.  But he signed elsewhere as a minor league FA.  Perhaps the answer is a prospect to be named (Lombardozzi?) or a FA signing.  I like David Eckstein to team him up with his hitting-coach brother but he probably wants a starting job too.  And Eckstein wouldn’t make sense unless we traded one of Desmond/Espinosa (still a possibility; see later).

Less Likely

• FA Closer
• Trade for a Veteran pitcher
• 1 veteran bullpen presence

1. There are a couple closer-types on the FA market and I can now see the Nats picking one up ala their deal with Matt Capps to cover for Storen as he grows into the spot.  Jenks, Dotel,Gregg, Hoffman, Soriano, Wood all available (Soriano a type-A though, so we wont’ get him).  I think this would make for a good piece of business and could serve as a useful trade chip mid season.

2. I can see us working out a trade with Tampa Bay to acquire Matt Garza.  Tampa wants to get rid of payroll, not add it, but perhaps we can pre-arrange a one-year deal with Willingham and flip him to Tampa.  Washington could eat some of the salary and Willingham would slot nicely into the left field spot recently vacated by Carl Crawford.  Tampa may like this deal since Willingham projects to be a type-A free agent and would net them 2 picks when he leaves (you have to think Willingham wants to get at least a 3-year deal when he hits the FA market based on his age and his proclivities for injuries).  Of course, getting rid of Willingham also puts a hole into OUR lineup, one that looks pretty promising when we get a power hitting lefty first baseman.  And we certainly would like to get some compensation picks to continue to rebuild the farm system.  More likely Tampa would ask for someone like Desmond, which would be a tough trade to swallow for a team that hasn’t really developed that many marquee players in the last 5 years.  We could trade Desmond, acquire Garza, move Espinosa to short (where he’s a better fielder anyway) then sign a short term 2nd baseman like David Eckstein or Orlando Hudson until one of our high-end 2nd base prospects (Lobardozzi, Rick Hague or Jeff Kobernus) is ready to go.

3. Lastly, with not one but TWO arms picked up in the rule5 draft, the likelihood of us acquiring any veteran bullpen arms seems nil.  Perhaps we re-sign Peralta as a long man, but we have plenty of cover there in Balester and Stammen.  We have all the arms we could want coming up (Kimball, Carr, Wilkie all project as mid-bullpen arms, and the AA team is filled with good arms with no place to move up to with so many AAA starters on the 40-man) and we have three great live arms in Storen, Clippard and Burnett already in place.

It has been a pretty fun offseason to track thus far for Nats fans.  I can’t wait to see what happens next.