Nationals Arm Race

We’re through the super regionals, and have a CWS field that is, frankly, stacked. It’s going to be a great CWS.

Resource links to help with this:

• Here’s D1Baseball.com’s Tournament Central, my favorite place to track the tourney.
• ESPN’s tournament coverage home page
• Here’s the NCAA.com field of 64 with some great data points at NCAA.com

First, lets recap the Supers.

• #1 Tennessee vs Evansville: Tennessee won game one 11-6, but the underdog shocked the #1 team in the nation in game two to force the deciding 3rd game. In the decided Tennessee turned it into a laugher, winning 11-1 to move on and avoid a massive upset
• #8 Florida State vs UConn: Florida State came to hit in this series, winning the first game by the astounding score of 24-4, then holding on for a 10-8 game two to move on.
• Kansas State vs #12 Virginia: UVA, who got hosting privileges as the higher seed, cruised to two straight wins to be the first team to punch their ticket.
• #4 UNC vs West Virginia: UNC had a bone-chilling come from behind win in game one, blasting two homers in the bottom of the last to go from a one-run deficit to a walk-off win. In game two, Tar Heel Star Honeycutt scored both runs in a 2-1 squeaker to send UNC to Omaha.
• #3 Texas A&M vs Oregon: TAMU held serve in game one despite losing its superstar Montgomery, then cruised to a 15-9 win to head to Omaha. I sense some sports cliche “do it for Braden” stuff going on here.
• #6 Clemson v Florida: Florida upset the hosts in game one 10-6, then the two teams played an epic 13-inning thriller that featured a 3-run rally in the top of the 9th by Clemson to send it to extras, then a walk-off double from Florida in the 13th to send them to the CWS.
• #7 Georgia v #10 NC State: NC State embarrassed Georgia on its home turf 18-1 in game one. Georgia rebounded to crush the Wolfpack 11-2 in game two, sending it to the decider. There, NC State held on with an 8-5 win to upset Georgia and head to Omaha.
• #2 Kentucky v #15 Oregon State: Kentucky blanked OSU in game one 10-0, then won a close one 3-2 to move on.

Super Regional Predictions versus Actuals

• predicted Tenn, FSU, UVA, UNC, TAMU, Florida, NC State, Kentucky
• actuals: Tenn, FSU, UVA, UNC, TAMU, Florida, NC State, Kentucky

Not bad on my predictions: I went 8 for 8.

Stats/Observations of the 8 Super Regionals.

• 6 out of 8 Super Regional Hosts to advance.
• 2 regionals went to the 3rd/deciding game: Tennessee/Evansville, Georgia/NC State
• Conference Breakdown of the eight Advancers: Four from the SEC, four from the ACC. Is anyone surprised based on the dominance of these two leagues this year?

So, your 2024 CWS Field (with original national seeds driving the teams):

• Group 1 (1,4,5,8): #1 Tennessee, #8 Florida State, #12 Virginia, #4 UNC.
• Group 2 (2,3,6,7): #3 Texas A&M, Florida, #10 NC State, #2 Kentucky

Clearly this is an ACC-SEC centric tourney, and interestingly the way the brackets bear out its mostly ACC teams in group 1 (except for #1 Tennessee) and its mostly SEC teams in Group 2 (except for NC State).

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Performance of 1st Round projected players in the Super Regionals:

Here’s a quick run through just the 1st round projected players who were active, using primarily MLBPipeline’s draft rankings for candidates. They’re listed in rough order of the way they’ll likely go in the 1st round in July.

• Charlie Condon: 3B/OF, Georgia: 0-3 with a BB in game one blowout loss. 1-4 in game 2, 1-4 with a solo HR in game 3.
• Travis Bazzana 2B/SS: Oregon State: 0-3 with a BB in game one. 1-4 with a BB and 2Ks in game 2.
• Jac Caglianone, 1B/LHP Florida: 2-4 with 3-RBI and HR in game one. 1-3 but with 3BB and another HR in game two while also getting the start and giving up 4ER in 5 2/3rds. Great super, but his bat is clearly playing more than his arm (consistent with scouting).
• Braden Montgomery, OF, Texas A&M: Walked in his first AB, then suffered a really bad-looking ankle injury trying to score later on in the inning. Twitter reports called it a “clean break” of his ankle. What a dagger of an injury for the player, a projected top-5 pick who likely falls in the draft because of this.
• J.J. Wetherholt, 2B/SS, West Virginia: 1-4 with a R in game one. 0-4 with nothing in game 2.
• Cam Smith, 3B, Florida State: 3-4 with 2R in game one blowout, 2-5 with 2R and 2BB in game 2.
• James Tibbs, OF, Florida State: 2-5 with 2BB and 4RBI in game one blowout, 5-6 (!!) with 3R, 6RBI and a HR in the 12th inning in game two to win it. Talk about a performance.
• Vance Honeycutt, CF, North Carolina: What a super regional for Honeycutt. 2-5 with 2R, 2RBI and the walk-off game winning HR in game one, then a leadoff HR
• Christian Moore, 2B, Tennessee: 1-3 with 2R, 2RBI and a HR in game one. 0-4 with 2BB in game 2.
• Billy Amick, 3B, Tennessee: 3-4 with 3R and a solo HR in game one. 1-5 with a R in game 2.
• Kaeleen Culpepper, SS, Kansas State: 1-4 with a 2RBI double in game one. 1-3 with a Sac fly in game two. Couldn’t do much to help.

Impressed: Caglianone, Honeycutt, Tibbs, Smith, Amick

Disappointed: Condon, Bazzana, Wetherholt, Moore, Culpepper

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My CWS Predictions

Top half: Tennessee should get by FSU in the opener, while UNC-UVA seems like a coin-flip to open (UVA took 2 of 3 against UNC in regular season play, but it was on home turf). I’m a little worried about Tennessee’s struggles to get by Evansville, but UVA doesn’t scare me. I think Tennessee wins the upper half.

Bottom Half: TAMU lost 2 of 3 at Florida in the regular season and I sense Florida has a chip on their shoulder this entire post-season. NC State also seems like a destiny team, so i can see those two advancing early, with Florida surprising and coming out of the bottom-half.

Final: Tennessee over Florida for the title.