Nationals Arm Race

Thanks to Masn’s Byron Kerr for the release of the Hagerstown roster on 4/4/11.  While most people will be focused on one Bryce Harper‘s inclusion on this roster, I’m interested (per the title of the blog) in the pitchers.   Here’s the list, cut-n-pasted from Kerr’s article.:

LHP Paul Applebee
RHP Sam Brown
RHP Wilson Eusebio
LHP Matt Grace
RHP Ben Graham
LHP Bobby Hansen
LHP Chad Jenkins
RHP Taylor Jordan
LHP Christopher Manno
RHP Shane McCatty
RHP Christopher McKenzie
RHP Cameron Selik
RHP Matt Swynenberg

Based on these player’s organizational roles and their status from last year, here’s how i’m guessing they play out:

Starters: Applebee, Grace, Hansen, Jenkins, Jordan
bullpen: Eusebio, McCatty, McKenzie, Selik, Brown, Manno, Swynenberg, Graham

Thoughts

• My initial prediction for the low-A rotation was: Solis, Clegg, Demny, Ott/Jenkins, Grace.  Demny and Clegg are in the high-A squad.  I thought Applebee would be in Potomac; now he seems set to repeat low-A and may be first in line to be promoted.  I thought perhaps Hansen and Jordan would be almost “inbetween” levels, having not really done that well in short-A but having a full low-A rotation.
• Swyndenberg could be in the rotation or he could be a spot starter.  He mostly was a starter last year.
• Sam Brown?  Where’d he come from?  He seems to be this guy, formerly of the Texas organization.  Did he get thrown into a trade somewhere?  He seems too young to have been a minor league free agent.
• Sammy Solis is hurt and will be on (presumably) low-A’s DL to start the year.
• Where is Billy Ott?  Ott is listed on the Auburn short-A squad, which makes no sense since it won’t start play til mid June.  He may be in extended spring.
• Hansen, Jenkins and Jordan making the jump from last year’s short-A squad.  Manno jumping straight from the GCL (the only one going to a full-season squad apparently).
• I really don’t know who will be the closer; of the list of guys there only Selik even had a save last year.

Missing from 2010:

• Ott and Hicks: they ended the year in Hagerstown’s rotation and now they’re not on any full season roster.
• Bronson: I thought he’d be in the high-A rotation; now he’s not even on any full season roster?
• Other names not on any full-season squad: Arnold, Vasquez, Weaver, Erb, Garcia, Gibson.  Weaver is a bit surprising; he seemed to be throwing decently well last year.  Perhaps he’s hurt.
• Willems: the former supp-1st rounder who retired mid 2010.
• McGeary: on the mend from tommy john surgery.

I was out of town, and away from computer for the long weekend.  A bad time to be away for my particular blog, which endeavors to talk about the pitching staffs of both the big club and the farm systems.  After announcing AAA and AA rosters earlier, the high-A and low-A rosters were announced on 4/4/11.

Here’s the slate of high-A pitchers, per Byron Kerr’s masn article.

RHP Alex Caldera
LHP Mitchell Clegg
LHP Ryan Demmin
RHP Paul Demny
RHP Marcos Frias
RHP Trevor Holder
RHP Pat Lehman
RHP Carlos Martinez
RHP Kyle Morrison
RHP Adam Olbrychowski
LHP Danny Rosenbaum
LHP Josh Smoker
RHP Rob Wort

Based on these pitcher’s roles in the past, here’s my guess as to roles for this team:

starters: Caldera, Holder, Demny, Rosenbaum, Clegg
bullpen: Frias, Smoker, Wort (closer?), Morrison, Lehman, Demmin (loogy?), CMartinez, Olbrychowski

Thoughts:

• I initially predicted Frias, Rosenbaum, Bronson, Fabian, Applebee, Lehman for this rotation.   Frias probably gets demoted to being a spot starter based on last year’s high ERA in the starter role.  Same with Lehman to a certain extent.  Clegg and Demny must have had great springs; i thought they’d be back in low-A.  Holder I thought would be moved up to AA; he may be first in line to be promoted.   We’ll see where Bronson, Fabian and Applebee end up once they announce the low-A roster.
• Where is Robinson Fabian?  I thought he’d be in the high-A rotation after getting a handful of starts last  year, but he doesn’t appear on any roster right now.
• Carlos Martinez?  He’s 27 and basically has pitched at the single-A level in our system for years.  Is this still a prospect?  Or is his placement on the roster more of a filler/rubber arm mop up guy?
• New faces to the organization: Adam Olbrychowski is our trade bounty for Justin Maxwell.  He is a converted starter who had some AA time last year but starts in high-A.  Alex Caldera was purchased from Kansas City earlier this spring training.  He was a Carolina league all star last year but struggled in AA, so he’s essentially repeating this level.
• I’m guessing Josh Smoker‘s days as a starter are over.

Missing from last year:

• Atwood, Pecina, JEstrada all either retired or were released mid 2010.
• Jaime was released and claimed, Morris was traded.
• Fabian, Dill, Phillibaum, Alaniz, Testa and Beno: no idea where these guys are.

Is Ankiel the solution for the Nats in center field? Photo by Al Bello/Getty Images via federalbaseball.com

Editors note: I was out of town last weekend and had this queued up but never hit publish :-).

MLB’s Nationals beat writer Bill Ladson hasn’t done an inbox for a few weeks, probably because he’s been busy at spring training.  Now that the regular season has started and we’ve had some debatable 25-man roster decisions made, he has published another edition of his Inbox column.  Here’s how i’d answer the questions he selects…

Q: What are you most worried about with the Nationals in 2011?

A: I’d say, in order, offense, the starting rotation, center field, and the back end of the bullpen.  I feel like we took a step backwards in terms of offense, we have improved the rotation over last year but still would probably rank this rotation 28th or 29th in the league, that Rick Ankiel in center field doesn’t really help us a ton, and that Drew Storen had such a rough spring that our end-of-game scenarios may be challenging.

Q: How do you think the Nationals will fare this season in the National League East with their off-season signings?

A: Probably the same as last year; last place.  Philadelphia and Atlanta are probably playoff bound no matter how many injuries the Phillies sustain.  Florida is probably taking a step side ways, having lost Uggla but picked up Vazquez (honestly, I don’t see how their fans don’t revolt at their perennial 87 win team doesn’t spend the $10 needed to improve themselves to be a 92 win team and challenge for the wild card).  The Nats may finish above the Mets, if only because that franchise is in such disarray right now.  They’re eating more than $20M in salary for players they’ve already released, they made no significant off-season moves and there’s serious injury question marks around 4 of their 5 best paid players (Santana, Beltran, Bay and Francisco Rodriguz).  I can see that time imploding badly and the Nats sneaking ahead of them for 4th place, maybe.

Q: If Bryce Harper has an amazing year in the Minors, is there a chance he will get a Major League callup?

A: They shouldn’t … but they may.  I would not be surprised to see the kid rocket through low-A and high-A ball.  It would be purely a late-season revenue grab to call him up, but they need to be careful on his service time accrual.  If he plays 30 days in September we’d have to keep him down an extra 30 days in 2012 to ensure he doesn’t become a super-2.  For those not clear on the implications of super-2 screwup, read this bit about the mistake the Giants made with Tim Lincecum.

That being said, i’d love to see him playing in the bigs before his 19th birthday.  That’d be fantastic.  And he may very well earn it.  His weakness in the AFL and in spring training was offspeed pitches, but its hard to fault the kid for wanting to swing and make something happen in the limited time he’s seen.  Once a full season gets going and he’s getting 4 ABs every night, he will learn patience, he will earn walks as pitchers work around him, and he’ll pick his spots.  This, more than anything else, is the lesson he needs to learn to advance in the minors.

Q: Do we see a parallel developing between Roger Bernadina and Justin Maxwell? How long do we have to wait?

A: It isn’t a bad parallel to note.  Bernadina lost the LF job, then the CF job, then the 4th outfielder job to a non-roster invitee.  He’s burning his last option as we speak.  He has a career 80 OPS+.  I openly questioned in this space why he was the presumed starter in LF all off-season, and as it turned out I was right about Morse being the better player.  I think he’ll play out the string in AAA this year and get traded for a low-level minor leaguer at the end of spring training 2012, just as we did with Morgan and Gonzalez this week.

Q: What do you think of the job general manager Mike Rizzo and manager Jim Riggleman have done since they took over in 2009?

A: I think Rizzo has done a decent job with the major league team and a pretty good job with the farm system.  I feel like he’s tried a little TOO hard to rid the team of the non-defensive hitters Willingham and Dunn, and could have gotten more for them.  I understand the Werth signing but think (like the rest of baseball) that he overpaid and strangely backloaded the contract (why back load instead of front load?  We’re actually at LESS payroll this year than last, so we could be paying him $20M this year instead of $10M and still look like we’re treading water).  He’s definitely assembled a team in his vision; defensively gifted, a bullpen full of power arms.  Next step; power rotation.

Riggleman is doing the best with what he has; I don’t believe other managers could do much better.  Most people believe we have probably the 28th or 29th best collection of talent in the majors, but we’re achieving better than 29th place.

Q: Besides Harper, which rookie impressed you during Spring Training?

A: I cannot disagree with Ladson’s selection of Cole Kimball as “most impressive rookie.”  I would not be surprised to see him called up in 2011 and to start getting high-leverage appearances.

Thanks to peric, via Sue Dienem’s NationalsProspects blog, for the AAA roster announcement today.

Here’s the roster of pitchers.

PITCHERS
Collin Balester
Adam Carr
Matt Chico
Ross Detwiler
Lee Hyde
Cole Kimball
J.D. Martin
Yunesky Maya
Tom Milone
Garrett Mock
Craig Stammen
Josh Wilkie
Based on their known roles in the organization and locations last year, here’s my guess for the pitching roles:

Starters: Detwiler, Maya, Mock, Milone, Chico
bullpen: Kimball (closer), Wilkie, Carr, Martin, Stammen, Hyde, Balester

Observations:

• I think it is pretty clear that Detwiler, Maya, Milone, and Mock are the first four starters.  I’m guessing (unlike Syracuse beat writer Tom Leo, who thinks Martin is the 5th starter) that Chico is the 5th starter for the time being, in that he’s lefty, younger and has more potential than the soft-tossing 28yr old Martin.
• The above point could change if the team decides that Chico’s ceiling is as a LOOGY.  But, Hyde seems to be that loogy role now in AAA.  Especially since 40-man member Severino is not on either the AAA or the AA roster right now.  I think he’s not long for the team and we should see a DFA announcement the next time we need a roster spot.
• I’m somewhat surprised to see Milone up here over Tatusko, if only because of age.  Both were dominant pitchers last year in AA and both merited promotion.  Milone is a 24 yr old lefty who has put up 12-5 seasons in subsequent levels in 09 and 2010.  He is perhaps another dark horse for the 2011 rotation.
• Stammen‘s conversion to the bullpen seems complete.  I hope he can make it as a middle reliever.
• Balester‘s presence is an unfortunate options game; he really deserves to be up with the big club and I hope he keeps his focus while riding the bus in Syracause.

Who is missing?

• Known releases from 2010’s team include Kown, Bergmann, and Bisenius. Kown and Bisenius were minor league free agents last year, and we cut loose Bergmann (who I believe got picked up by either Baltimore or Boston for spring training 2011).
• Where is Severino, Martis and Villone?  Villone may be in Viera to serve as a “player-coach” for a while.  Martis’ absence indicates just how far he’s fallen in the pecking order of this team.  As mentioned above, Severino’s absense means he may be dumped from the 40-man roster after losing out to Slaten in the loogy-battle in spring training.
• More interestingly: where is Oliver Perez?  I would have been certain he would have been in the AAA rotation.  I wonder if he’s sticking around Viera to work on some mechanical issues.
• Where is Tanner Roark, Rafael Martin and Adrian Alaniz?  Now that we have both the AAA and the AA rosters, we’re also missing guys like Spradlin, Dials, Novoa, Zinicola, CJames, JJones, and Leatherman.  Some we know have been released (Spradlin); others were minor league FA signings last year and probably signed elsewhere (CJames, JJones), and some may still appear in the High-A bullpen.

Can’t wait to see Potomac’s roster!

A few hours after the parent club lost their opening day game, the AA roster was announced for the start of the 2011 season.  I think it was kind of odd to announce the AA roster prior to the AAA roster, or to announce it separately than the other full season squads, but it does make for some interesting analysis already.

To borrow from Byron Kerr’s article above, here’s the 12-man pitching roster:

Pitchers:

RHP Erik Arnesen
RHP Luis Atilano
RHP Jimmy Barthmaier
RHP Erik Davis
RHP Jeff Mandel
RHP Ryan Mattheus
LHP Pat McCoy
RHP Brad Meyers
RHP Brad Peacock
RHP Hassan Pena
RHP Ryan Tatusko
LHP Cory VanAllen

Based on the roles from last year, plus the organizational status of some of these guys, here’s how I think the roles shake out:

Starters: Meyers, Peacock, Tatusko, EDavis, Arneson
bullpen: Mandel (closer), VanAllen (L), HPena, Mattheus, McCoy (L), Barthmaier, Atilano

First thoughts:

• Arneson gets dumped back to AA after pitching half the year in AAA.  This probably is due to the overflow of starters in AAA we have now, including newly signed reclamation project Oliver Perez.  Not that Arneson was a fantastic prospect for us last year, but i’m sure some people will not be happy that his advancement is being displaced by the Perez experiment.
• Atilano goes from the 40-man and pitching regularly in 2010 to passing through waivers and being assigned to AA in 2011.  This probably indicates that, unless he pitches like the 2nd coming of Tim Lincecum this year, he’s officially designated “organizational guy.”
• Mattheus may be a starter instead of Arneson, frankly.  It will be interesting to see how he does post TJ surgery.
• Tatusko: it is disappointing he’s not with the AAA squad because he definitely earned the promotion.
• Peacock and new acquisition Erik Davis start where I thought they would; no surprises here.  Same to a certain extent with Brad Meyers, who was fantastic last year before going down with injury.  He seems to be the real starter prospect on the AA squad and may feature in the 2011 rotation battle with the big club.

Now, for the surprises.  Where are these guys?

• Milone and Holder; I guess they start the year in high-A again
• Roark: where is he?  My guess would be the AAA bullpen since there’s no way he should be dumped back to high-A.
• Alaniz: not that he was a great prospect himself, but he is far too old to be starting in high-A again.  I’m guessing he’s in the AAA bullpen mix or flat out released.

Can’t wait to see the next round of announcements (which i’m hoping have not already occurred as i write this).

Did we really need a .232 pinch hitter who can't play the field? Photo Carlson/AP via nydailynews.com

As the Nats are breaking camp, they’ve announced a flurry of roster moves that are setting up the team for its opening day.  And, in a series of moves reminiscent to 2009’s opening day roster, we’re breaking camp not necessarily with the best guys on our 25-man roster, but with the best team option status (or lack of them) can assemble.

As the title of this post suggests, I understand the logic of these decisions but don’t necessarily like what it means for the team.  I think we’re weaker than we could be, and we’re keeping around veterans with no long term place for this team instead of playing guys who deserve to be on the MLB squad.  I think it sends a bad message to guys who deserve to be playing but who will be heading to Syracuse.

Both Collin Balester and Roger Bernadina seem to have missed out on roster spots so that the team would not lose players who may have trade value in Chad Gaudin and Laynce Nix respectively.

For some reason, we’re keeping Matt Stairs instead of a player who can actually help off the bench.  As pointed out by Ben Goessling, this also means that our bench is incredibly lefty-heavy and we’ll struggle with matchups later in games. Isn’t Rizzo obsessed with defense?  How does Stair’s lack of *any* discernable defensive capability fit in with his overall vision for this team?  Another Natsmosphere twitter-er asked this good question; if Adam LaRoche‘s shoulder puts him on the DL; who exactly is the backup first baseman out of this group of bench players?

So, for our final 25-man roster we’re using 4 non-roster invitees.  Gaudin makes the team and probably deserved it.  Nix makes the team and seems to be trade bait.  Stairs makes the team for some reason or another.  And Alex Cora probably (deservedly) makes the team as Alberto Gonzalez‘s replacement (who we’ve traded to San Diego for a pretty good prospect considering we would have DFA’d him in 3 days…).

I guess if we obtain prospects for Gaudin or Nix in a trade later on this season, then it would be worth the options burn on Balester and Bernadina.  I hope so; along with Detwiler and Mock, 2011 represents their final option year.

Nats fans have seen their last Nyjer Morgan tantrum

Just two days after it became rather clear that Morgan was not going to win the starting Center Field job, Rizzo dealt the player to Milwaukee for low-level infield prospect Cutter Dykstra and some cash.  Nice move by Rizzo, taking a guy we were probably going to release in a few days and getting something (anything) in return.  Dykstra is a younger player but he’s a 2nd round pick who has put up decent numbers in the lower minor leagues thus far.  Keith Law says he’s no more than an Organizational player, but something is better than nothing.

Morgan should be happy with the deal; he may not start in Milwaukee but at least he’s now on a contender instead of being a 30-yr old in AAA.

One could argue the Nats were a bit hasty on the decision; Morgan had turned around his spring, rebounding from a slow start to post a .241/.328/.315 line for the spring.  Perhaps giving him a month into the regular season to see if he could return to 2009 form would have been the right thing to do.  Unfortunately, a log-jam of outfielders in camp that were outperforming Morgan were pressing the team’s hand.

Morgan’s trade means we have no real lead-off hitter.  We probably go with Desmond but he only had a .308 obp last year.  We will replace Morgan in the outfield with a platoon between Rick Ankiel and Jerry Hairston, Jr, neither of which really is a long term solution.  We also seem set to keep Laynce Nix after his great spring, meaning that Bernadina loses the options game and will go to AAA.  My guess is that we’re keeping Nix solely to trade him and get something in value, and Bernadina should be right back up.

My guess on what happens next is something like the following: Ankiel struggles at the plate, we trade Nix and Bernadina returns to the majors as the 4th outfielder.  Then, Corey Brown recovers from his ankle issues, gets healthy in AAA, hits well and gets called up to be the new leadoff/center fielder around mid June.

One nice side-effect of the deal is the freeing up of a roster spot.  Since it is looking more and more likely that we’re keeping 2 and perhaps 3 non-roster invitees we need to make some 40man moves.  Gaudin and Nix, perhaps Stairs seem to have made this team.  We’re at 39/40 now with the Morgan move.  I can see Wang going to the 60-day DL to free up one spot but an extra spot for Stairs is tough.  Perhaps we 60-day DL Elvin Ramirez.  We could just return him flat out (though I’m not sure you are allowed to return an injured rule5 guy).  We could also look to DFA someone; Severino may be expendable with the acquisition of lefty specialist Lee Hyde.

A quick comment on the VCU run through to the final four.

It seems to me that the rise of the mid-major schools and the lack of respect given by coaches and national media is coming to a head.  Perhaps George Mason’s run in 2006 was considered truly “cinderella” but Butler’s national championship appearance last year from a one-bid conference (not to mention their fantastic performance against Duke in the final) coupled with their return this year should be enough to give the national media pause.  When are these great teams from mid-major conferences going to get their due?

Lets talk about VCU.  4th place in the CAA, usually a one-bid conference.  This year though they earned 3 bids and probably would have fared better had ODU not been matched up with Butler to start the tourney.  VCU did not receive ONE vote in the final AP poll.  They were #49 in the final RPI rankings.  Yet here’s what they have done in the tourney:

• Beat USC by 13
• Beat Georgetown by 18 (ranked in the 22-25 range towards the end of the season)
• Beat Purdue by 18 (ranked 10-12 range towards the end of the year)
• Eke by Florida State in OT 72-71 (3rd place in ACC, probably better than a #10 seed)
• Beat Kansas soundly by 10.

I’m sorry, but when you beat two teams as soundly as they beat Georgetown and Purdue, on neutral courts and on the biggest stage possible, it tells me you are a team that belongs in the discussion of the best basketball teams out there.  Georgetown apologists (and there are many in this town) will tell you Wright was just coming back from injury.  I don’t buy it; that was a senior-heavy lineup that flat out got beat.  Wright played, by the way, and VCU controlled the game from the start.

I watched the Kansas game all the way through and it was no fluke.  They lead 41-27 at the half, weathered a massive run by Kansas to start the 2nd half, made key shots to get their lead back, and never allowed Kansas to really be “in the game” for the entirety of the last 4 minutes.  This may be a “massive upset” per the same national media members who couldn’t comprehend VCU being this good, but to me it was another dominating performance by a team that clearly merited mention prior to this run.

So the question is; why did no one know about VCU if they were capable of beating top-ranked teams so soundly?

It makes you wonder; if VCU was so soundly beating teams from these major conferences, imagine where we’d be if GMU didn’t have to play Ohio State so early, or if ODU-Butler was a first-round game instead of a regional final?  ODU and GMU were clearly better teams than VCU all year but suffered from being slightly “too good” and earning 8 and 9 seeds instead of the coveted 11 seed (which has an amazingly easy path to the elite 8 if their cards fall correctly).

In my opinion, college basketball is undergoing a fundamental change.  Sure you’re going to have your blue blood teams (Duke, UNC, Kansas, Kentucky) that are always good and always have players.  But sooner or later people need to realize that the best team in a mid-major is clearly better than the 4th place team in the SEC.  Because we’re seeing it proven, again and again, on the floor.  Perhaps we can get to a point where there are more Gonzagas and Butlers in the rankings instead of Georgetowns and Louisvilles.

Week 4 is “moving week.”  Management will soon need to make all the decisions on who makes this team, and the candidates need to make statements in their appearances this week.  Bullpen members, Center Field, backup outfielders and backup infielders seem to be the four competitions yet to really be decided upon.

As with the previous 3 weeks, here’s links to Kilgore’s running game-day blogs (when he does them), Bill Ladson’s game wrap-ups and the official box score on mlb.com.

• 3/20: vs Tigers (running blog/gamer/box score)
• 3/21: at Cardinals (running blog/gamer/box score)
• 3/22: vs Astros (running blog/gamer/box score)
• 3/23: off day
• 3/24: at Tigers (running blog/gamer/box score)
• 3/25: vs Cardinals (running blog/gamer/box score)
• 3/26: at Astros (running blog/gamer/box score)

The Good

• Tom Gorzelanny: Pitched effectively on 3/20, 5 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 3 K, 84 pitches, 47 strikes.  The 2 runs were on a wind-aided homer that wasn’t that bad of a pitch.  Gorzelanny needed 84 pitches to complete 5 innings but he threw a LOT of balls.  He was getting squeezed (on one of the BBs he clearly had him for strike 3) by the umpire and he was more effective than his line shows.  One area of concern though is velocity; the MASN broadcast only had him in the upper 80s on his fastballs.  He followed this up with a similarly good 3/25 performance vs the Cards: 6ip with only 77 pitches, 4 hits and a walk, getting 5Ks.  Perhaps my earlier concerns about him will be proven unfounded.
• Brian Broderick: seems to have effectively won his spot in the bullpen by continuing his nearly scoreless spring training.  He could be a major find for this team.  The more interesting question becomes this, “who makes way?”  Because we’re also hearing that Chad Gaudin is making this team too, meaning that TWO guys who were favorites to make this team at the beginning of spring training are heading to Syracuse.
• John Lannan: a great start on 3/22 (albeit against the weak Astros) puts him in line to be our #2 starter when camp breaks.  Final line: 6IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 3 K’s, 66 pitches, 42 for strikes.  66 pitches for 6 complete innings is fantastic, even against the awful Astros.  Lets hope we’re getting the post-minor league banishment version of Lannan (6-3 record with a 3.42 era and 1.24 whip in his 10 games after returning) versus his first 14 games of 2010 (2-5, 5.76 era and 1.85 whip).
• Colin Balester continues to prove he belongs by throwing great middle relief.  He may lose out in the options dance come April 1st, but he should force his way back to Washington.  Kilgore described his curves as “untouchable” on 3/22 and says he’s easily one of the 7 best relievers in camp.
• Jordan Zimmermann: his 3/24 start was pretty good; 5 scoreless innings, giving up 5 hits and a walk, striking out 6.  He only needed 90 pitches through 5 and his fastball was sitting 94, reaching 96 (despite what the stadium radar gun was showing on TV…).  He looks like he’s slotting into the #3 starter role.

The Bad

• Stammen: optioned on 3/25 as expected.  I say this is “bad” because I feel Stammen is better than he’s shown.  His fip and xfip last year were 2nd best on the team to Strasburg (whose advanced numbers, by the way, were the best in the league by a fair margin for starters).  I think he can still be an effective back-of-the-rotation starter in the majors.  Now it seems he’s being converted to middle-relief and will enter a very jumbled mix of players in the AAA bullpen competition.  He may very well be out of a job before we know it.

The Concerning

• Most of the Bullpen: As Zuckerman notes here on NatsInsider, our supposed strength is turning into a scary liability.  Clippard, Coffey, and Storen all pitched 3/20, all three looked less than stellar and all three now have spring ERAs that would not merit their 25-man roster spots.  Storen picked in up on 3/22 with a nice 1-2-3 9th and followed it up with a really nice 1-2-3 9th on 3/25.  Clippard rebounded on 3/24 but Coffey did not.  Perhaps Coffey will be our 2011 version of Brian Bruney, a veteran reliever on a reasonable contract who gets cut very quickly into the season.  We’ll see.
• Livan Hernandez: 5 ip, 6 h, 2 er, 3 bb, 1 k, 83 pitches, 50 strikes outing on 3/21 against the STL varsity.  Zuckerman described it as a solid outing and that Livan faded a bit late.  He only threw 5 innings and he was fading!?  I know that this is what we get out of Livan generally; lots of baserunners and him pitching out of jams based on guile and experience.  But I’d like to see a bit more competence from our opening day starter.  He threw again on 3/26 and was efficient in 4 innings but left due to a neck issue (from sleeping on it wrong).

The Best #2 hitter in the league. Photo by Mitchell Layton/Getty Images North America)

The Nats apparently want to bat Werth 2nd.  At the beginning of Spring Training the plan seemed to be a lineup like this:

• Morgan-Desmond-Zimmerman-Werth-LaRoche-Morse-Espinosa-Catcher-Pitcher

which would be

• L-R-R-R-L-R-S-R-Pitcher.

This lineup was very righty heavy and with the problem of putting 3 straight right handed hitters at 2-3-4.

If Werth bats 2nd, I suppose our lineup now goes (in fact, this is more or less the lineup going today 3/26/11, with injury substitutions for Werth and LaRoche).

• Desmond-Werth-Zimmerman-LaRoche-Morse-Ankiel-Espinosa-Catcher-Pitcher

which would be

• R-R-R-L-R-L-S-R-Pitcher.

Well, how exactly does this help?  You still have three straight right-handed guys in your lineup.  And 5 of 8 hitters to boot.  We’d allow loogy matchups to eat us up in games and would still be susceptible against lefty starters.  What we need is to go with something like this:

• Desmond-Espinosa-Zimmerman-LaRoche-Werth-Ankiel-Morse-Catcher-Pitcher

which would be

• R-S-R-L-R-L-R-R-Pitcher.

or perhaps this lineup:

• Bernadina-Desmond-Zimmermann-LaRoche-Werth-Morse-Espinosa-Catcher-Pitcher

which would be

• L-R-R-L-R-R-S-R-Pitcher.

Both these later lineups are more balanced and split up the lefty-righty combos.  Of course, Espinosa isn’t ready for the #2 spot and Bernadina isn’t the ideal leadoff hitter.  So we really can’t go with these lineups from the onset.

The Nats really needed Morgan to own the leadoff and center field position this year.  By losing him we have no natural leadoff hitter any longer.  Desmond really is a #2 hitter.  It is one of the reasons I advocated for an attempted trade for someone like Jacoby Ellsbury back in the middle of the off-season.

Perhaps the solution is one Corey Brown, slated to start in AAA.  He plays center field, shows pretty good 20-20 like numbers career in the minors, and has a great OBP.  His slash line between AA and AAA for 2010 was .283/.370/.466 with 15 homers and 22 Sbs.  That sounds like a fantastic CF/leadoff options.  Oh, and he bats lefty too.  Maybe that Willingham trade wasn’t so bad after all if Brown can show some MLB value.