Nationals Arm Race

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Nats 2023 Draft Class Review Rounds 11-20

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Can the nats woo 11th rounder Gavin Adams out of a FSU commitment to join the team? Photo via mlb.com

Here’s my review of the remaining players of the 2023 Draft Class, rounds 11-20.

By the way, the Draft Tracker is now updated. There are three tabs of interest for the 2023 draft:

  • Main Draft Tracker tab: shows Nats draft picks dating to 2005
  • 2023 Draft Class Worksheet, where we have schools, commits, twitter feeds, and will track signing/bonuses
  • 2023 Local Draft Class worksheet; tracking all DC/MD/VA players.

For reference below, the major Draft boards in use here are.

However, I’m not expecting these 11-20th rounders to really be on these lists. If i can find scouting reports besides on MLB’s free site, i’ll list them.

11th round: Gavin Adams, JC J2 RHP from Indian River State CC in Florida. Drafted 315 overall.

Adams is the first pick in the 11th round, the round where teams routinely try to grab players who might command a bit over-slot, since so many players picked in the rounds 8-10 are under-slot deals, pushing guys into the 11th. It isn’t clear how much $$ the Nats are going to have free; out of their $14M and change bonus pool, i’m projecting about $14M just to their top three picks, leaving not a ton of room for the rest of the class. But Adams is somewhat highly ranked all things considered, ranking #242 on MLB’s board, #171 on ESPNs, #311 on BAs site. We’ve paid a couple of 11th rounder in the $250k range over the past few years, i’d expect something similar for Adams. Will he sign? Well, the Nats had all night and all morning to find someone who would, so we have to assume he’s signing for whatever number he was offered.

BA scouting report:

Adams drew some interest as a late target in the 2022 draft, but flashed better control early in the 2023 season with Indian River State JC in Florida before struggling later in the season. The 6-foot-3 righty has a big arm and good pure stuff with a fastball that gets into the upper 90s, as well as solid feel to spin a mid-80s slider. Control remains a serious question mark and he’s mostly pitched out of the bullpen at the juco level, with 19 walks in 26.1 innings and a deep plunge in the back of his arm stroke.

12th round: Travis Sthele, Junior RHP from U-Texas Austin. Drafted 345 overall.

Sthele looked like either a Sunday starter or a mid-week starter for UT Austin this year. 5.75 ERA but a decent BAA for college. Redshirt sophomore, he was a big-time recruit coming out of college but then missed his entire freshman year with injury. He’s been basically the same guy for two years now; I wonder if he’ll want to return to school to finish his degree as a RS Junior/4th year college student versus taking a $125k bonus to try the pros. This is also the kind of guy who might be looking at Texas’ recruiting class and saying to himself, “hmm, my rotation spot might be in jeopardy, maybe I should go pro.” Seems like he may be a tougher sign.

Here’s a 2019 perfect game scouting report:

Travis Sthele is a 2020 RHP/SS with a 6-0 200 lb. frame from San Antonio, TX who attends Reagan. Strong athletic build. Rocker step delivery with a pause at the gather point, high 3/4’s to over the top arm slot with some back shoulder dip, works down the mound well with his lower half and gets good extension out front. Low 90’s fastball, topped out at 93 mph, maintained his velocity very well from the stretch, fastball is mostly straight. Slider is a good pitch when he doesn’t overthrow it, stays on top of it well and it shows nice 10/4 depth at times. Firm change up with occasional fading life. Aggressive pitching style with power stuff and will use all three pitches. Excellent student, verbal commitment to Texas.

13th round: Liam Sullivan, Junior LHP from University of Georgia Drafted 375 overall.

Third college arm in a row, after drafting just two senior signs in the first 10 rounds. Sullivan looks like he was Georgia’s Sunday starter this season, but got shelled; 5.77 ERA in 14 starts. He did manage to beat LSU this year and went to the MLB draft combine, a good indicator that he’s ready to turn pro.

BA has him ranked #278. here’s their Scouting report:

Sullivan is a physical specimen with a 6-foot-6, 245-pound frame who works from a high, three-quarter slot and has advanced command of a deep pitch mix. He got hit around a bit in 2023 and posted a 5.77 ERA over 64 innings with a 25.6% strikeout rate and 11.3% walk rate. He throws a fastball at 90-91 mph that touched 95 this spring, and will also mix in a low-80s slider, mid-70s curveball and low-80s changeup. Sullivan’s changeup was the best swing-and-miss offering for him this spring, with a 44% miss rate, though his slider has traditionally been seen as his best secondary. It’s got solid horizontal movement with spin rates around 2,400 rpm. Sullivan is a softer thrower with a maxed-out frame that doesn’t offer much in the way of future projection, so he’ll need to be more precise with his fastball and rely on mixing and matching to keep hitters off-balance and stay off the barrel in pro ball. He has the upside of a reliable, durable depth starter.

14th round: Elijah Nunez, Junior OF from TCU. Drafted 405th overall.

Nunez is a lefty-hitting speedster CF from TCU, who was a major big-time prep recruit but has become overlooked in college. Slashed .289/.400/.414 this year, not a ton of power, some SB. He was TCU’s lead-off hitter and fared decently in the post-season, getting several hits in the CWS but going 0-5 his final game. Will he sign? Does he think he can improve upon his draft position with another year after his team made the CWS? Or does he look at the backlog of OF prospects in our system and say, “geeze maybe I try my hand next year with a different org.”

I can’t find any scouting reports on the guy other than scouting his bio and stat line from college.

15th round: Mikey Tepper, junior RHP from Liberty. Drafted 435 overall.

Holy cow, the Nats drafted someone local. Tepper looks like the Saturday starter for this year’s Liberty team that under-performed; he had decent stats, a .217 BAA but an inflated ERA. He’s a xfer into Liberty from Mississippi State, where he was heavily recruited. Is he sign-able here? Maybe, maybe not. People don’t generally go to Liberty as one-and-done’s … but a guy who’s already bounced around programs may be itching to move on.

Here’s a PG scouting report on him from 2019:

Mikey Tepper is a 2020 RHP with a 6-2 190 lb. frame from Fort Mill, SC who attends Fort Mill. Medium athletic build with good overall athleticism. Deep hooked arm action in back leading to a near over the top arm slot, has some spine tilt and will fall off to the first base side at times,, arm is very fast and loose. Fastball topped out at 95 mph early before settling down in the 89-92 mph range, mostly straight with occasional glove side cutting action, gets nice plane on his fastball when down on the zone. Curveball has serious depth and bite at times, can buckle knees with its bite and depth. Flashed a change up that could develop into a solid third pitch. Big step forward as he was only hitting 89 mph last fall. Good student, verbal commitment to Mississippi State.

In other news, another college arm in the 11-20 range; I’m sensing a pattern.

16th round: Austin Amaral, Junior RHP from Stetson. Drafted 465 overall.

Another round, another college arm. This time Amaral, who seemed to be Stetson’s Friday starter this season and had excellent numbers. 3.30 ERA in 15 starts. A little under-sized at 6’0″ (despite what the below scouting report says). I like this as a flier; he seems like the kind of guy who can succeed in the lower minors before running into a wall in AA. We’ll see.

2019 PG scouting report:

Austin Amaral is a 2020 RHP/ with a 6-1 190 lb. frame from Debary, FL who attends University HS. Athletic frame with room to fill out and add strength. Primary righthanded pitcher who only pitched during the event. Small side step into a leg lift above the belt. Longer arm path with good whip and arm speed present. Extended release out in front which aids some deception to the stuff. Flashes some hard arm side life on the fastball that topped out at 92 mph during this performance. Stays connected over the rubber well and can work the fastball to either side of the plate. Drops slot on the breaking ball with good bite and sweeping action. Garners chases out of the zone from righthanded hitters. Strong two-pitch mix with good feel and pitchability as well. Good student. Named to the PG Fall Top Prospect Showcase Top Prospect List. Verbal commitment to Stetson.

17th round: Merrick Baldo, RS Junior/Senior RHP from Loyola Marymount University. 495th overall.

Another round, another college arm. Baldo appears to have been LMU’s closer this year. 4.11 ERA. A redshirt Junior who missed a ton of time while in college and may be ready to move on. He was a decent prospect coming out of HS, projected maybe as a 2nd day draft kid in 2019, but hasn’t panned out. No Scouting reports to be found.

18th round: Nate Rombach, Senior Catcher, Dallas Baptist. 525th overall.

Well, you draft this many pitchers, you need someone to catch them. Rombach was a 19th round pick by Miami out of HS but went to Texas Tech instead. After two seasons there, he transferred to DBU, where he’s started the last two seasons. He’s technically a Covid junior but this is his 4th college season and seems likely to sign. His stats were ok this year; .288/.355/.455.

19th round: James Ellwanger, a prep HS RHP from Magnolia West HS (TX). 555th overall.

All you need to know here is that Ellwanger is the 107th ranked MLB draft prospect, and thus there’s no way this kid signs for $125k in the 19th round. So he’ll honor his commitment to Dallas Baptist University. Ellwanger doesn’t appear to be anyone’s cousin on the Nat’s staff, so maybe this is some area scout’s draftee b/c he didn’t get anyone else this draft.

20th round: Isaac Ayon, junior RHP from Oregon.

An interesting pick; Ayon was set to be Oregon’s Friday starter, when an undisclosed arm injury took hold .. and knocked him out of the entire 2023 season. News reports throughout the season seemed to indicate that he was close to returning, implying this wasn’t TJ or a surgery … but he never pitched.

Is he signable? Doubt it: a Friday starter for a major baseball program like Oregon should go a lot higher. He was also in their rotation as a starter and posted a 5.77 ERA, and something tells me he won’t want to leave college with that taste in his mouth. I don’t think he’s signing.

Quick draft summary by the numbers. Out of their 20 picks:

  • 17 4-year college, 1 juco, 2 HS
  • 9 hitters, 11 pitchers.
  • 8 College Seniors, 9 College Juniors, 1 Juco, 2 HS
  • 6 guys from Texas, 3 from Florida, 2 from Louisiana.
  • 14 from this cluster of southeastern states: FL, GA, LA, OK, TX
  • 2 guys who are highly unlikely to sign, maybe a couple more who might not either.
  • I expect 17 or 18 to sign

As mentioned in the last post, this looks to me like a 3-person draft. The Nats got themselves three 1st round talents, will probably go overslot on all three of them, and make the numbers work the rest of the way. All these college arms in the 11-20 range can get thrown against a wall to see who sticks as a reliever.

Written by Todd Boss

July 12th, 2023 at 9:24 am

Posted in Draft

2023 Nats Draft Class Review: top 10 rounds

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Yohandy Morales, pictured here with Team USA but who played at Miami, was our 2nd rounder. Photo via Baseball Prospect Journal

Here’s my review of the 2023 Draft Class, with call backs to the various draft boards out there and some thoughts along the way about sign-ability, likely bonus machinations, etc.

By the way, the Draft Tracker is now updated. There are three tabs of interest for the 2023 draft:

  • Main Draft Tracker tab: shows Nats draft picks dating to 2005
  • 2023 Draft Class Worksheet, where we have schools, commits, twitter feeds, and will track signing/bonuses
  • 2023 Local Draft Class worksheet; tracking all DC/MD/VA players.

For the time being, i have a proposed draft bonus placed into the draft tracker to show how I think the bonuses may play out. I think the first 3 picks all go over-slot, 4th, 5th, 6th get around half their slot, and 7-10 all get like $10k Read on.

For reference below, the major Draft boards in use here are:

I pay for some things, not for others, so this isn’t a comprehensive list of boards out there. There are other draft boards out there (Baseball Prospectus behind a paywall, PerfectGame behind a paywall, Prospects365 & 20/80 baseball seem to be out of business), but if they don’t go beyond the top 50 or if I don’t subscribe they’re not here.

I’ll put in some scouting reports for the less well-known guys from some of the paywalled’ sites, since anyone can get scouting reports from the MLB’s main site.

So, 1-10, here’s some thoughts on the picks one by one.

1. Dylan Crews, picked 2nd overall. OF (CF) from LSU.

Ranks: #2 by MLB, #1 Law, #1 BA, #1 Fangraphs, #2 ESPN, #1 D1Baseball, #2 Prospects1500, #1 ProspectsLive, #1 CBS.

Crews speaks for himself really, but here’s BA’s scouting report:

BA Grade:65/High
Tools: Hit: 65. Power: 65. Run: 55. Field: 55. Arm: 60.

Crews was a highly-regarded prospect coming out of Lake Mary (Fla.) High, though he ultimately withdrew from the 2020 draft and made his way to Louisiana State, where he immediately became one of the best players in college baseball. He set an LSU record with 18 home runs as a freshman, then moved from right field to center field during his sophomore season and clubbed 22 more home runs and was named a Golden Spikes semifinalist. He won the award a year later and was one of the best hitters in the country in 2023, when he hit .426/.567/.713 with 18 home runs, 16 doubles, a 13.4% strikeout rate and a 20.6% walk rate, while being the focal point of an offense that won a College World Series championship against Florida. He either got a hit or drew a walk in every game of the season. Crews has a powerfully-built 6-foot, 205-pound frame and above-average or better tools across the board. He has electric, double-plus bat speed that allows him to drive the ball to all fields with authority, catch up to velocity and make late swing decisions, with great balance and strength in his lower half. After chasing a bit too much in high school, Crews has developed an advanced approach in college, with a solid eye and just a 17% chase rate in 2023. He also hits the ball harder than most players in the class, with a 96 mph average exit velocity and a 110 mph 90th percentile mark. A plus runner now, Crews should be at least above-average in the future if he slows down, and he’s a good center field defender with advanced route-running ability and instincts. He profiles as a plus defender in an outfield corner if he needs to move, with easy plus arm strength. He entered the year as the No. 1 player in the class and is the favorite to be selected first overall, with perennial all-star upside potential.

2. Yohandy Morales, picked 40th overall. 3B from Miami.

Ranks: #20 by MLB, #32 Law, #26 BA, #13 Fangraphs, #18 ESPN, #6 D1Baseball, #28 Prospects1500, #29 ProspectsLive,

I briefly posted some thoughts on Morales after day 1, but you can clearly see from the relative ranks of all these shops that Morales is a big coup to get at the top of the 2nd round. Even the most bullish guy (Law) still had him as a 1st rounder. So, since Law is low-man here’s his scouting report:

Morales looks like an easy top-10 pick when you see him walk on the field or take batting practice, or even just a few game swings where he makes contact, but he whiffs too much for that and most scouts think he’ll end up in left field or at first base, making the bat that much more important. Morales looks the part, certainly, and has a pretty swing that can produce significant power but more often puts the ball on the ground. You can beat him with velocity up or breaking stuff down and away, not dissimilar to former Florida Gator Jud Fabian, who was the Orioles’ second-round pick last year. Morales is neither natural nor easy at third and I think at least has to move to right field in pro ball. To his credit, he’s hit better in the ACC, .353/.430/.500 with just an 18.5 percent strikeout rate, and may be able to hit his way back up into the middle of the first round. There just seem to be better bets to hit in this class, between Morales’ two clear holes and the fact that a lot of the hard contact he makes comes in the form of groundballs.

BA Scouting report:

BA Grade:55/Extreme
Tools:Hit: 45. Power: 60. Run: 45. Field: 50. Arm: 60.

Morales was a talented and toolsy high school prospect who ranked as the No. 77 overall player in the 2020 draft class. He made it to campus at Miami, where he initially split time at shortstop and third base, before sliding over to the hot corner full time. Morales is a large, athletic righthanded hitter with a 6-foot-4, 225-pound frame that has plenty of strength now, but still room to add good weight in the future. He’s been a consistent producer for the Hurricanes and is a career .341/.412/.624 hitter over 172 games with 46 home runs. Morales takes big hacks, and starts his swing with a bit of a hand hitch before firing through the zone with a lengthy bat path. He has plus raw power that he generates with little effort in batting practice, and generates tons of damage on contact with a 94.2 mph average exit velocity in 2023 and a 108.9 mph 90th percentile mark. Morales has pure hit questions thanks to both the length of his swing and his pitch recognition. He chases out of the zone frequently and has long seemed to struggle identifying breaking balls, which leads him to getting out in front and off-balance at times. He missed 20% of the time vs. fastballs in 2023 compared to a 37% whiff rate on breaking balls. Morales is an average runner who has solid defensive tools at third, including solid mobility, athleticism and plus arm strength. He’ll need to become more consistent in the field and could potentially slow down as he adds strength to an already large frame.

3. Travis Sykora, picked 71st overall. HS RHP from Round Rock HS (TX).

Ranks: #40 by MLB, #36 Law, #36 BA, #34 Fangraphs, #88 ESPN, n/a D1Baseball, #39 Prospects1500, #52 ProspectsLive,

A prep high school arm. Nats havn’t drafted a HS pitcher AT ALL since Michael Cuevas in the 23rd round in 2019. He’s turned out ok; he’s currently in the AA rotation holding his own at age 22 for a $125k signing bonus. The Nats havn’t drafted a prep HS pitcher this early since Mason Denaburg in 2018, and yes its fair to say he has NOT worked out (currently on the brink of release from an injury-filled minor league career off our low-A roster). But you can see why the Nats took him here; he’s nearly across the board a 36-40th ranked prospect, and they’re getting him nearly a full round later than he was projected by the industry. ESPN/Kiley McDaniel is most bearish on him; here’s his scouting report:

A little bit of Hans Crouse about him as a big quirky righty with huge stuff: up to 100 mph, flashes plus slider and splitter. He’s a big 6-foot-6 with below-average command and is old for the class, so the worry is he’s a reliever that may benefit from two years in the SEC.

Here’s Law’s scouting report:

Sykora is probably the hardest-throwing high school pitcher in the draft class, hitting 100 mph last summer and sitting 96-98 mph with some arm-side run, pairing it with a plus splitter that has hard tumble. He’s huge at 6-foot-6, 220 pounds, but has a super-short arm action where his arm is extremely late relative to his front leg landing, which might be why his slider has velocity but not much bite or tilt. He’s 19 already, which will hurt him in analytical models and means he’ll be draft-eligible in two years if he ends up at the University of Texas. He’s one for teams that value size and arm strength over delivery or breaking stuff.

4. Andrew Pinckney, picked 102nd overall. Col Sr OF (corner) Alabama.

Ranks: #216 by MLB, #168 BA, #211 ESPN, #123 D1Baseball, #233 Prospects1500, #187 ProspectsLive,

So, a college senior in the 4th round … me thinks Sykora and perhaps Crews need some over-slot money and Pinckney’s selection here could provide some of it. $660k slot for a college senior who went undrafted last year as a junior. Now, he’s not a scrub as evidenced by the general draft slots he was projected to go (generally 215-230 range, which puts him more like an 8th rounder and a likely $200k bonus. So expect some savings here to go elsewhere. Yet another outfielder…. i guess our hopes of seeing a pitcher-heavy draft are shot.

Now, that being said, BA liked him a lot. Here’s their scouting report:

Pinckney enjoyed a strong 2022 spring and summer, and followed it up with a career season in 2023 as a right fielder for Alabama. Listed at 6-foot-3, 215 pounds, Pinckney hit .338/.442/.645 with 18 home runs, 12 doubles and a career-high 13.9% walk rate. Pinckney has impressive athleticism and loud raw tools to go with his performance, though his production has consistently come with high strikeout numbers and an aggressive approach. He missed at a 32% rate this spring and has significant contact questions versus breaking balls and offspeed pitches, and will also expand the zone too frequently against all pitch types. He does have well above-average bat speed, which translates into hard-hit balls when he does make contact, with a strong 107 mph 90th percentile exit velocity and above-average power potential. He’s primarily played right field with Alabama but has impressive athleticism, above-average speed and plus arm strength that should allow him to play all three outfield positions and get a shot at center field to start his pro career. Pinckney has made impressive strides offensively each year in his college career and if he’s able to take a step forward with his pitch recognition and contact ability he has impact upside on both sides of the ball. Pinckney redshirted in 2020 and is old for the class as a 22-year-old on draft day.

5. Marcus Brown, 138th overall pick, a SS from Oklahoma State.

Ranks: #147 BA, #214 Prospects1500, #222 ProspectsLive

Probably another value pick, in that Brown wasn’t really that highly ranked or considered. His scouting reports talk about his glove first, and he only hit .273 this year. Slot of $464k, i’ll bet we save another $200k on him on top of the $200k we probably saved on the 4th round Pinckney. His scouting reports remind me of a former Nat in Steve Lombardozzi when they say things like lefty swinging little power.

Here’s a couple scouting reports from the places that have them. BA first:

Brown began his career as a part-time second baseman for Oklahoma State, but hit well in just 24 games during his 2021 freshman season. A year later he moved into the team’s starting shortstop role and overall he’s slashed .323/.388/.436 for the Cowboys, with four home runs and 17 doubles and then was one of the best prospects in the Cape Cod League, where he played a brilliant shortstop but struggled offensively. Those offensive struggles carried over into his draft year, and Brown slashed just .273/.360/.469 with nine home runs, 10 doubles and a 16.4% strikeout rate and 5.7% walk rate. At 6-foot, 187 pounds, Brown is close to physically maxed out and is a light-hitting lefty bat now who probably won’t add much more power in the future. He has a choppy, line drive stroke that will occasionally put a ball over the fence to the pull side, but is better suited for all-fields line drive contact. His exit velocities were modest, at just 82 mph on average, and without average or even 40-grade power, he’ll need to improve his swing decisions and chase out of the zone less frequently to provide offensive value in pro ball. Brown does have solid pure bat-to-ball skills, with an 80% contact rate this spring, and he’s also done a nice job catching up to 92-plus mph velocity. While Brown currently has a light offensive profile, he’s as steady as they come defensively. He has a quick first step and silky smooth actions in the field and does a nice job creating efficient angles to the baseball, with deft footwork around the bag on double plays, and above-average arm strength.

and from Prospectslive:

Arguably the best defensive shortstop in the draft, Brown combines slick hands with good range and a plus arm to provide great defense up the middle. The bat isn’t as advanced as the glove as he struggles to drive and impact the ball but shows solid ability to make contact. There are no doubts about the glove but Brown’s draft stock and development will be tied to his offensive prosduction whether or not he can add power to his game. – Sam Capobianco

6. Gavin Dugas, drafted 165th overall, 5th year sr 2B from LSU.

Ranks: Unranked by all shops

So, On the one hand we got the cleanup hitter from the CWS champion LSU team, a guy who wasn’t half bad this year (.290/.464/.589 with 17 hrs). On the other hand, he’s unranked, even outside the top 500, of every blog/scouting shop, which probably indicates what his expectations are in terms of both signing bonus and future success. Whatever; I like this pick; he was a gamer and he hits. Lets see what he can do in pro ball. Slot value of $357k; i don’t think this is a $10k senior sign, and I think he’ll get a bit of money, but expect more slot savings.

BA Scouting report:

Dugas has been a power-over-hit infielder for Louisiana State throughout his college career, but he banked a .300 season in 2022 and came 10 points shy of repeating that in 2023. In his fifth season with the program Dugas hit .290/.464/.589 with 17 home runs, 12 doubles, a 20.5% strikeout rate and a 14.3% walk rate. Dugas looks to do damage with a pull-heavy approach and uphill bat path. His home runs almost exclusively go to the pull side and that approach has led him to leak out early and swing-and-miss against breaking balls and offspeed offerings. Dugas is a limited defender who might be pushed off the dirt in pro ball and he’ll be 23 on draft day, but his righthanded power could make him an interesting senior sign target.

7. Ryan Snell, drafted 195 overall. 5th year Sr C from Lamar.

Ranks: unranked by all shops

Well, you don’t get much more of a cost savings than a 5th year senior catcher from a no-name school. Snell’s not on any rankings; all we have to go on is his 2023 stats. And they’re solid: .317/.412/.654 for an OPS north of 1,000. He’s undersized because of course he is, but his bat seems to play. Slot value of $278k, i’ll bet he signs for almost nothing. No scouting reports anywhere that I can find, not even out of perfect game.

8. Jared Simpson, drafted 225 overall. 5th year senior LHP reliever from Iowa.

Ranks: unranked by all shops.

A 5th year senior lefty reliever from a big 10 baseball program does not scream “slot value.” Simpson had a 6.54 ERA this year, but he did have big K/9 numbers. This smells like a $10k sign.

BA Scouting report:

A 6-foot-4, 205-pound lefthander, Simpson struggled to a 6.54 ERA this spring in 42.2 innings with Iowa. He struck out a decent number of hitters with a 31.5% strikeout rate, but also walked 10.8%. His fastball sits in the low-90s but he hides the ball well and has little effort in his delivery. His sweeping slider generated a 26% miss rate this spring, and he also mixes in a shorter, mid-80s cutter that is effective. There is room for Simpson to put on productive weight which will likely translate to a couple more ticks of velocity.

9. Thomas Schultz, RHP senior from Vanderbilt, drafted 255th overall.

He threw just 13 innings out of Vanderbilt’s bullpen this year with a 5.40 ERA. Clearly a $10k level signing. No current scouting reports anywhere; here’s his PG report circa 2018:

Thomas Schultz is a 2019 RHP with a 6-6 205 lb. frame from Mount Carmel, PA who attends Our Lady Of Lourdes HS. Extra tall build, lanky and physically projectable with very long limbs. Leg lift delivery with a long and loose arm stroke, extended high 3/4’s arm slot, whippy arm action. Fastball topped out at 91 mph, works both sides of the plate well with his fastball and gets very good running life at times. Big soft curveball will show good depth at times, looks like a future slider candidate. Very projectable fastball with work to do on his secondary pitches. Very good student, verbal commitment to Vanderbilt.

10. Phillip Glasser, 5th year senior SS out of Indiana, drafted 285th overall.

Fifth year senior with no scouting reports on any shops, but he didn’t hit half bad this year (.357 starting for Indiana). Another clear senior sign slot savings bonus.

First impressions: I think the Nats took one look at their top 3 picks and have decided to basically make this a 3-man draft. I think the lion’s share of their $14M+ bonus pool is going to Crews, Morales, and Sykora, and everyone else is org-man filler. And you know what? I’m fine with that. Crews the #1 ranked prospect on most boards, Morales was a mid-1st rounder projected who fell, and Sykora was a prep kid with a massive arm projected as a mid 2nd rounder who fell as well.

The Nats have done this with drafts in the past (the Giolito draft was basically a 1-man draft for example), but at least they got 3 top-end prospects out of this one.

Written by Todd Boss

July 11th, 2023 at 9:10 am

Posted in Draft

Is Futures Game participation an indicator of future success?

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MLB released the rosters for its 2025 Futures Game, kind of a minor league all star exhibition/showcase that’s played the day before the All Star game that has been gaining traction and attention.

The Nats just sent two of our best prospects to the 2023 Futures game, a game supposedly meant to highlight prospects but ridiculously cut short to 7innings (so basically there’s no continuity of play) and streamed on a minor platform (Peacock) that few people pay for. We can tell you that our own James Wood went 0-1 with a BB while Brady House got one of just five hits on the night for the NL team based on the box score. Both those players are now on the MLB roster, and Wood is highly likely to be appearing in the actual All Star game this weekend.

In 2024, we sent our absolute best prospect in Dylan Crews, who started in the game and went 0-3 with a HBP and a SB.

This year, we’re again naming our absolute top prospect in Travis Sykora (though he had to withdraw with injury, being replaced by another top 10 prospect in Clemmey), and also sending recently promoted AAA reliever Grissom, who is barely on the top 30 prospect list. Why Grissom? Well because his dad is managing one of the teams of course. Here’s Keith Law’s preview of the event.

But lets take a step back, call out the Futures game participants for the Washington Franchise over the years, opine whether we actually sent our best prospect(s) at the time, and see if its an indicator of future success. (Note: the links in the years go to the rosters or summaries of the games).

  • 2025: Travis Sykora, Marquis Grissom, Jr., Alex Clemmey. Sykora our #1 at the moment with Susana hurt, then subsequently got hurt so Clemmey went in his place. Grissom included for familial reasons; his dad is coaching the AL futures team. So, with Sykora and Clemmey being sent while Crews, House, Lile in the majors, the Nats once again send their best. Career Outcomes: check back in a few years.
  • 2024: Dylan Crews, our clear-cut #1 and #2 in all of baseball, so we sent our best. Career Outcome: Crews now promoted and our starting RF when not hurt.
  • 2023: James Wood, Brady House. These were inarguably the top 2 ranked prospects in the system as of mid 2023, unless you had a thing for Hassell. Career outcomes: premature of course, but right now Wood looking like a star, House just called up
  • 2022: Cade Cavalli, Darren Baker. Cavalli was still #1 or #2 on most lists, joined by the likes of House, Henry, and Vaquero. Cavalli was a much higher visibility in 2022, while Baker’s inclusion was probably positional scarcity filling last year, and is really a fringe prospect.
  • 2021: Cade Cavalli was either our #1 or #2 prospect to Jackson Rutledge as of the 2021 futures game, so we sent our best.
  • 2020: No game: Covid
  • 2019: Carter Kieboom. He became our #1 prospect upon Robles promotion in June 2019. Career outcome: Man, what the heck happened to this guy. Forgot how to hit, forgot how to field, then had TJ, had a flexor Mass elbow issue, to outrighted and released.
  • 2018: Carter Kieboom, Luis Garcia. Victor Robles was set to go but got hurt, and Juan Soto was set to go but got promoted, and at this moment they were our #1 and #2 prospects. Kieboom and Garcia were not far behind though. Career outcomes: Garcia was thought to be a bust for years, but now produces as our starting 2B.
  • 2017: Victor Robles; with the departure of Giolito and the graduation of Turner, Robles became our clear #1 prospect.
  • 2016: Reynaldo Lopez: At the time of the game, Giolito and Turner were still 1-2 for us, but they went last year so we sent our #3 or #4 prospect in Lopez. Career Outcome: Lopez struggled for us, then we flipped him to CWS in the Adam Eaton trade and he pitched effectively in their bullpen as an 8th inning guy with decent numbers for a while.
  • 2015: Lucas Giolito, Trea Turner. Giolito was our top prospect for several years before getting traded. Giolito famously shipped to CWS when the Nats apparently couldn’t fix his mechanics (CWS could). Turner obviously starred for us for years.
  • 2014: Lucas Giolito, Michael Taylor. Giolito was our top prospect for several years before getting traded. Taylor was a mercurial player for us for years, now is succeeding for Minnesota.
  • 2013: A.J. Cole, Taylor Jordan. Our top prospects at the time of the game were Lucas Giolito and Brian Goodwin: Giolito was still recovering from TJ so wasn’t a candidate to go (he went the next year). Cole could never figure it out for us, so we traded him for nothing to the Yankees. He eventually became a decent bullpen guy for a couple of years before getting hurt. Jordan got to the majors and showed a flash of promise later this summer in 2013, but couldn’t cut it as a MLB starter and faded away.
  • 2012: Alex Meyer, Felipe Rivero. Anthony Rendon was our clear #1 at the time of the game and didn’t go; was he hurt? Could have been. Meyer was generally #2. Career outcomes: Meyer was yet another arm we couldn’t make work, so we turned him into Denard Span. To be fair, neither could Minnesota, who flipped him to the Angels, where he had a solid season in 2017, got hurt, and disappeared. Rivero? Flipped in the Mark Melancon deal to Pittsburgh, where he changed his name to Vazquez, then was a decent reliever until he got arrested for a litany of charges related to underage girls. I believe he’s still in prison as of this writing, but could be wrong.
  • 2011: Bryce Harper, Brad Peacock: Harper was clearly our #1 prospect at the time. Career outcomes: Peacock got flipped in the Gio Gonzalez trade, made his way to Houston and pitched pretty well for them for years. Harper of course we know the story.
  • . Peacock got flipped in the Gio Gonzalez trade, made his way to Houston and pitched pretty well for them for years. Harper of course we know the story.
  • 2010: Danny Espinosa, Eury Perez. We graduated a ton of guys this year just prior to the game, so believe it or not you can make a credible argument that Espinosa was our #1 prospect at the time of the game. Career Outcome: Espinosa hit at the mendoza line for this team for years before getting flipped to the Angels in our down 2016 season. Perez was a 4-A guy, got DFA’d in late 2014 and was claimed; he had one decent season for Atlanta then disappeared.

So, historically the Nats have really done a nice job of sending our best prospects to this show case, which can’t necessarily be said for all the teams out there. And for the most part, we’ve seen decent career outcomes for those players who we sent.

Written by Todd Boss

July 10th, 2023 at 9:31 am

Posted in Prospects

2023 Draft 1st and 2nd round reactions. Crews!

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Crews is a National. Photo via his twitter.

After months of thinking Dylan Crews was going 1-1 … a last minute shake-up in Pittsburgh’s camp led to them taking Paul Skenes and letting Crews drop to the Nats at 2nd overall.

We talked about the “why” of why this might happen:

  • Pittsburgh wants a fast-to-the-majors arm
  • Skenes would probably take a haircut off of the $9.7M slot value, giving them more money to chase HS prospects later on.
  • Crews had been posturing about not wanting to go to Pittsburgh or wanting a huge bonus.

It doesn’t matter why. What matters is that the Nationals have found themselves with the 2023 Golden Spikes award winner, the 3rd time they’ve gotten to draft such a player. The first two times worked out pretty well (Strasburg and Harper).

We’ve talked Crews to death in the media; he’s a 5-tool guy, true CF, great hit tool, speed, shows power, etc. I’m happy the team didn’t do something clever and pass on him. I think I would have preferred Skenes if we had the choice, given our lack of pitching prospect depth and our abundance of OF prospects, but that can all work itself out later.

Later on in the evening, we took Yohandy Morales in the 2nd, out of U-Miami. Fantastic pick; a guy who had a ton of mid-1st round projection who we landed with the 40th overall pick. A great defensive 3B with a mature bat, he’s going to be a fast riser. Great pick, great bat.

So, yes we already have a top 3B prospect in Brady House. Again, you worry about these things being a problem only when they become a problem. Both were shortstops in high school before moving over due to size (Morales is 6’4″ 225, House is 6’4″ 215). Maybe they pivot to a corner OF spot, maybe someone pivots to 1B. If both these guys bash their way to the majors at the same time, maybe they platoon at 3B/DH. Maybe we flip one for a #2 starter.

I do realize the team has pitching needs, and i’m betting we’ll see a ton more arms drafted the rest of the way, but it seems to me the Nats stayed true to their draft board and grabbed BPA.

Can’t wait to see what happens from here…

Written by Todd Boss

July 10th, 2023 at 9:09 am

Posted in Draft

What happens if Pirates go rogue?

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Could the Nats really get Crews? Photo via Crecent City sports

With the Nats picking #2 overall in a draft that, for months, everyone thought was basically solidified in terms of who was going #1 overall, I’ve not done my typical “Mock draft” analysis/collection work.

But, in the days leading up to the draft, we’re hearing all sorts of crazy rumors and last minute shuffling of names going right ahead of us. So, lets talk about those rumors, talk about what’s going on, and then opine as to what the Nats should do.

Rumors: Dylan Crews has given an 8-figure bonus demand, is advised by Boras, and has told Pittsburgh he doesn’t want to play for them.

Well, I can’t blame him if any of these rumors are true. Crew could very well be pushing for an 8 figure bonus, and its not that much of a reach given that slot for 1-1 this year is $9,721,000. But, we also know that Pittsburgh has in year’s past gone the “under-slot 1-1 deal” route to spread more money around in later rounds. So, there’s definitely a possibility that they could go to a player like Wyatt Langford, who most people think goes 3rd overall (slot value $8,341,700) and say to him, “hey, we’ll give you $8.5M to sign right now) and he’d be ecstatic to take it, and Pittsburg nets more than $1.2M of excess bonus money,

This is essentially what Keith Law think may be going on in his latest mock.

Is Crews being overly demanding? Could he be calling the Nats and say I want $10M and the Nats (who have 1-2 overall for slot value of $8,998,500) would say, “ok we’ll find $1M elsewhere” and Pittsburgh just says knock yourself out? Maybe. But if Crews is doing this, its a dangerous game. If he falls too far down the road with a $10M signing bonus demand, he’ll quickly find himself priced out of the market altogether. The slot for #5 overall, for example, is just $7.1M, and there’s just no way a team like Minnesota blows $3M of surplus dollars on Crews when they can land one of the prep kids Clark or Jenkins there for $3M less. And Crews would be an idiot to go back to school; his value is maxed out right now; there’s no way he gets more next year; you can only go down from 1-1. I’d also point this out; this isn’t the 2010s when you could shop around for bonus dollars with no pools defined; teams have slots, they have penalties for going over, and I don’t really believe any rumor that an agent would advise a player to give up $9.7m in search of $10m.

(full bonus pools and slot values here, by the way)

Now, could Crews be telling Pittsburgh he doesn’t want to play for them? Sure. And I wouldn’t blame him in the least. Pittsburgh is one of the worst run franchises in the sport. They went 20 years without making the playoffs, not even getting to 80 wins, from 1993 to 2013. Then after a brief playoff run, they bottomed out after 2016 and have been basically dead last since. They were the 2nd worst team in the league last year, they never spend money, and they’ve proven to be awful at player development (just look at Gerrit Cole’s numbers in Pitt versus the second he left). The largest FA contract they’ve EVER SIGNED was a 3/yr $39M deal, and the largest contract extension they’ve ever committed to was a shade over $100M. So, yeah, if you’re a generational player, do you really want to go to Pittsburgh and basically play out the string while they bumble around for another 10 years without a winning season?

Maybe Crews is telling Pittsburgh he won’t sign for less than $10M, then calling Washington and saying he’ll sign for slot. That’d be a real “screw you” to Pittsburgh by Crew’s “advisor,” but it’d guarantee that both the player and the Nats get what they want: Crews would still get $9M, he’d be out of Pittsburgh, and the Nats would get the #1 player in the draft.

Rumor: Pittsburgh wants Skenes more than Crews now.

This is what the latest BA mock draft thinks. Pittsburgh may have seen the CWS and seen Skenes’ capabilities and decided to go that way instead of dealing with whatever Crews says. If that’s the case … the Nats take Crews and are ecstatic about it. Its the easiest 1st round prep they’ve ever had to do.

What if both Crews and Skenes are still on the board?

Well, if that’s the case, and the Nats havn’t done some switcheroo promise to Crews, I think (as Law does) that they’ll sign Skenes to slot instead of blowing an extra $1M to give Crews his $10m demand. I mean, you can’t go wrong, but the Nats love the famous guy, Skenes is certainly famous, he’s right in line with our Strasburg pick, and he fits a pretty big need.

Hey, I’ll be happy with either guy. Skenes could be in the majors by June of next year, Crews will be a stud. Can’t go wrong either way .

Written by Todd Boss

July 7th, 2023 at 11:53 am

Posted in Draft,Nats in General

2023 Draft Coverage: Local draft-prospects to keep an eye on

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First draft of this post?  8/10/21 when Perfect Game updated its Virginia rankings for the 2021 prep season and added in some top-level DC area players.

The College players are mostly drawn from my 2020 Local High School draft coverage, listing guys who were HS seniors in 2020 who went to 3-year programs and who are now draft eligible.

2023 could be a real banner year for DMV guys; we legitimately have two potential 1st round high school players, which I can’t remember the last time happened, as well as several collegiate 1st rounders who project as high as top 10.

Reminder: on the Draft Tracker resource, I have a tab specifically for DC/MD/VA local players that I generally try to track each year. I’ve spec’d out the top prospects who are likely to drafted alraedy for 2023.

Major Local College Draft Prospects for 2023

  • Kyle Teel, C/Util UVA (by way of NJ hs): 2022 2nd team Pre-season d1baseball AA as a sophomore. top of 2023 collegiate draft class per D1baseball Feb 2022. Projecting as mid 1st rounder by BA for 2023. Keith Law projects as high as 6th overall.
  • Matt Shaw, 2B UMaryland. top 100 of class of 2023 per D1Baseball. Mid 2nd rounder per BA, moving up late 2022 per MLBPipeline (late 1st rounder). Law now has him mid-1st rounder.
  • Jake Gelof, 3B UVA; drastically improved power numbers sophomore year, now projecting as 2nd rounder.
  • Jack Hurley, OF, Virginia Tech. True CF, slashed .375/.452/.664 with 14 homers sophomore season.

Lesser Local College draft eligibles w/ Local Ties

  • Carter Tryce, 2B/OF ODU (by way of ?? HS). top 100 of class of 2023 per D1Baseball.
  • Jason Savacool, RHP UMaryland. top 100 of class of 2023 per D1Baseball.
  • Trey Gibson, RHP Liberty (by way of Grafton HS in Yorktown, VA): 2021 Freshman AA. top 25 of 2023 collegiate draft class pre-2022 season per D1baseball. Liberty’s Friday night starter. Mid 2nd roudner per BA fall of 2022.
  • Luke Shliger, C UMaryland. Struggled early 2023, but a C who can hit will always get drafted.

DC/MD/VA Local Prep players for 2023

  • Bryce Eldridge, RHP/1B Madison HS. #2 in the state, #18 nationally in class in Mid 2021. Huge kid 6’8″ can hit mid 90s as a sophomore, easy velocity and sinking action from huge height. USA Prime summer team, Alabama commit. Bats L, throws R. #14 in the Class per BA in Feb 2022, again in May 2022. Projecting to upper 90s as a 6’8″ thrower. Projecting as supp-1st rounder Fall2022. 18U USA baseball team. MLBPipeline Dec 2022 as at #26. Law projects going in the 1st round teens (#17).
  • Jonny Farmelo SS Westfield. #9 in 2021 state PG rankings, UVA commit. Now ranked #86 per BA’s list Feb 2022. #76 on BA’s July 2022 list. #52 MLBpipeline Dec2022. Law projecting end of 1st round possibly.
  • Cameron Johnson, LHP IMG Academy (was McNamara, Forestville, MD). #55 on BA’s Feb 2022 list. LSU commit, blew up at WWBA last October. #44 July 2022 on BA list. Mid 90s from a big guy 6’5″ wow. Area Code Games 2022. 18U USA baseball team. MLBPipeline has #50 Dec2022

Lesser DC/VA/MD prep players of note.

  • Tommy Roldan, LHP/OF Georgetown Prep via Poolesville. UVA commit, Area code Games 2022. 92 from the left hand side.
  • Brody Shawn, RHP West Potomac HS. Pop-up mid 90s velocity, Wake Forest commit. #88 on BA’s feb 2022 list.
  • Bryson Moore, RHP/1B Fairfax HS: #6 in 2021 state PG rankings, UVA commit
  • Brett Renfrow, RHP Colgan. #12 2021 PG state rankings, Virginia Tech commit
  • Jack McDonald, RHP/SS Independence . #15 2021 PG state rankings, ECU commit
  • Marcus LeClair ? position, Gonzaga HS. #18 2021 PG state rankings, UVA commit

Extended DC/MD/VA Prep players (outside DC Area) on the radar.

  • Blake Dickerson; LHP; Ocean Lakes HS, Virginia Beach, Va. Big tall lefty, Low 90s as a 17yr old. 18U USA Baseball team summer 2022. Virginia Tech commit. MLBpipeline top 100 Dec2022. Mayo called him out specifically here in his Dec 2022 newsletter.
  • Tayshaun Walton, OF (corner), IMG Academy (was Maury HS Norfolk) . #1 player in the state as of 2021, UMiami commit. #5 nationally. Could blossom into a mid-1st rounder. Dirtbags summer team, 6’3 220, tons of power. Justin Upton comp. #28 ranked by BA Feb 2022. #75 BA list July 2022, falling somewhat. Not in MLBpipeline’s top 100 Dec2022

Sources used

Written by Todd Boss

July 6th, 2023 at 11:15 am

Posted in Draft,Local Baseball

2023 HR Derby – Who is in and who should be

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So, the participants for the 2023 Home run Derby have been named. We get:

So, who SHOULD we have in the derby? Lets look at this a few different ways. Here’s your current top 10 MLB home run leaders:

  1. Shohei Ohtani (with 31 before the break, better than Judge’s 60+ pace last year)
  2. Matt Olsen
  3. Luis Robert Jr
  4. Pete Alonso
  5. Mookie Betts
  6. Ozzie Albies
  7. Jorge Soler
  8. Kyle Schwarber
  9. Adolis Garcia
  10. Ronald Acuna

So, based on the current leaders, our HR derby field has just 4 of the current top 10 HR leaders.

Here’s 2022’s HR leaders, since often the ASG is a small sample size of who’s been hot for a couple months:

  1. Judge
  2. Schwarber
  3. Mike Trout
  4. Alonso
  5. Austin Riley
  6. Yordan Alvarez
  7. Christian Walker
  8. Betts
  9. Rowdy Tellez
  10. Paul Goldschmidt

Just two of last year’s top 10 HR hitters are in the derby.

Now, since its an All Star game, meant to feature (you know) All Stars, here’s the current active list of HR leaders in the sport:

  1. Miguel Cabrera
  2. Nelson Cruz
  3. Giancarlo Stanton
  4. Mike Trout
  5. Joey Votto
  6. Evan Longoria
  7. Paul Goldschmidt
  8. Nolan Arenado
  9. Freddie Freeman
  10. JD Martinez

Not one of these top 10 active HR hitters is in the derby.

Here’s a list of active HR Derby winners:

  • 2022: Juan Soto
  • 2021: Alonso
  • 2019: Alonso
  • 2018: Bryce Harper
  • 2017: Aaron Judge
  • 2016: Stanton
  • 2015 and before: all now retired

Soto opted out, Judge is hurt, and neither Stanton or Harper is earning an all-star nod.

So, if you wanted to put together the absolute best possible HR derby roster, factoring all these lists in, here’s who you’d want. I’m including players we know are injured right now, but astericking them and then adding on players at the bottom until we get to 10.

  1. Pete Alonso: 2-time winner, top10 in HRs both this year and last year. Has to be here.
  2. Juan Soto: 2022 champ, really should be defending his title.
  3. Shohei Ohtani: 2023 active leader, defending MVP, well on his way to being 2023 AL MVP, leads majors in ISO. Its ridiculous he’s not in the derby this year.
  4. * Aaron Judge: 60+ homers last year, 2017 champ.
  5. Giancarlo Stanton. Top-10 active HR leader, 2016 champ.
  6. Kyle Schwarber: top10 in HRs both this year and last year, some of best pure power in game.
  7. Mookie Betts: top10 in HRs both this year and last year, perennial MVP candidate.
  8. * Mike Trout: future Hall of Famer who sits 4th in active HRs despite being only 31.
  9. Ronald Acuna: The guy is on pace for a 40 hr, 80 steal season and is the likely NL MVP.
  10. * Bryce Harper: the only remaining former HR derby champ not yet mentioned, on pace for 500 career homers.
  11. Paul Goldschmidt: top 10 both in 2022 and active.
  12. Luis Robert: #3 this season in both active HRs and ISO. Averaging 32 homers/162 games as a CF.
  13. Matt Olsen: #2 this season in active HRs, #2 in the league in ISO. Huge power guy.

Now, if you want some wild-cards, i’d also accept these players just because:

  • Julio Rodriguez: runner-up in 2022’s derby, last year’s ROY, one of the best young players in the game.
  • Vladimir Guerrero Jr: runner-up in 2019, huge power, big personality.
  • Randy Arozarena: exploded onto the scene, a showman.
  • Fernando Tatis Jr: another high-profile young player we need to be showcasing.
  • Austin Riley: power-first guy who finished top 10 last year.
  • Corbin Carroll: 18 homers and 24 SBs at all star break, could press for 40/40.
  • Elly De La Cruz: Talk about a debut.

Written by Todd Boss

July 6th, 2023 at 10:02 am

Posted in Awards,Baseball in General

End of June Check-in on Rotations

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Bennett probably our early Minor League POTY. Photo from OSU

We did an end of April check-in on the rotations and an End of May check-in. Here’s another look after another month.

Important links for this analysis:

We’ll start with the Majors.

Rotation: Corbin, Grey, Gore, Williams, Irvin

Changes in the last month: None. The rotation has been surprisingly static for a last place team.

Observations: Irvin officially supplanted Kuhl in the rotation after a couple of starts after his call-up, and when Kuhl came back Irvin stayed in the rotation and Kuhl went to the pen. That is, until about a week ago, when the team gave Kuhl his outright release waivers. They didn’t bother with the whole DFA dance; they knew that they were going to eat his $2M salary, so they just summarily released the guy so he could move on. Side note: Baseball is a good living: $2M for 3 month’s work.

Irvin was looking a bit shaky for a while, but his four starts in June were solid, and his last two were really good. His seasonal numbers are now about where Corbin’s are. Meanwhile, Grey has been stellar lately and has pushed his season ERA+ into the upper 120s. Williams has held his own and looks like a promising possible trade candidate for a team looking for some innings. Gore had a sketchy month that has inflated his ERA and peripherals, but still looks like the top 100 prospect he has been since high school.

Next guy to get cut/demoted: Nobody really. They’re not going to cut bait on Corbin, Williams is holding his own, the other three guys are here to stay as important pieces of the new-look future state Nats rotation. Remember; it only took the Nats three years to go from 59-103 to 98-64.

AAA Rochester:

Rotation: Peralta, Rutledge, Urena, Adon, Banda.

Changes since Last Month: Abbott got called up to the MLB pen, where he’s stayed, and Rutledge has taken his place after his late June promotion. Espino also got called up briefly but is back now, and may re-take Banda’s spot in the rotation (or not: Banda threw a decent start on 7/1; maybe he’s transitioning back to a starter role). Tommy Romero continues to be the first long man/spot starter out of the pen.

Observations; None of these starters really had a good month in June. Banda was the worst, making 5 starts, only going 19 innings in those starts, and giving up 14 ER along the way. Urena had a 5.68 ERA in June, which actually lowered his seasonal ERA of 7.17. Same with Peralta: a 5 ERA month has improved his seasonal stats. The fact that we keep giving these guys (aged 34 and 31 respectively) starts is proof positive that our pitching depth has gone to pot. Adon actually had a decent month. There’s no real point in talking about Espino; we already know he’s a better reliever than a starter, yet the team continues to push him as a starter in AAA. Rutledge got shelled in his first AAA start, but he’s more than earned the promotion.

Next guy to get promoted: Espino. But nobody’s “earning” another promotion right now.

Next guy to get demoted or released: As with last month, the moment they need a spot Urena or Peralta are gone.

AA Harrisburg:

Rotation: Cuevas, Troop, Hernandez, Saenz, Parker , plus Henry

Changes in last month: Saenz got promoted up to cover for Rutledge, when he got promoted on 6/27. Henry done with rehab and in AA but sits on the developmental list as of 6/30.

Observations: Henry’s first two starts back were horrific, so as we speak he sits on the developmental list. When Rutledge (correctly called as next guy to get promoted last month) moved up, Saenz (who had seemingly solved high-A) moved into his spot. The guy with the best month was Parker, who had a 1.35 ERA in four starts and has turned around his fortunes significantly (he was last month’s “Next guy to get demoted”). Cuevas continues to struggle (but is only 22), as does Troop (who is continuing to be the innings soaking long-man/spot starter he served in last year). Hernandez has been quietly effective with pretty amazing control; he walked just 2 guys all month.

Next guy to get promoted: Nobody really; perhaps Hernandez

Next guy to get demoted or released: I still think Cuevas looks over matched, but the first guy to make way if Henry comes back off Dev List probably is Troop.

High-A Wilmington

Rotation: Alvarez, Theophile, Lara, Luckham, Caceres, Bennett

Changes in Last month: Saenz promoted to AA (as predicted last month), Bennett promoted up from Low-A, Huff moved to bullpen

Observations: Wilmington has too many arms to put up with poor performance, which is why Chance Huff is now in the pen with his 6.12 ERA. Meanwhile, Wilmington seems to have too many starters and something may give soon. Lara continues to confound this observer, with another month of 5 ERA work on top of his 5+ ERA work all last year. Why he’s in High-A at this point is amazing, consider he couldn’t get guys out at Low-A and is incredibly young for the league. Meanwhile, Andrew Alvarez continues to impress, with a very solid month with a 1.77 ERA in his last four starts. Bennett has kept producing upon his promotion: first three stats in High-A featured a 1.29 ERA. He needs another month in Wilmington but I see nothing to indicate he shouldn’t keep on moving up. I Still think he was started way too low for a major conference Friday night starter 2nd round pick. Anyway. Caceres just got moved up and got shelled in his first start, too soon to tell. Theophile also had a solid month, lowering his seasonal era significantly. Luckham looks like the odd-man out of this rotation right now, though his ERA is much higher than it deserves to be based on his WHIP.

Next guy to get promoted: Alvarez

Next guy to get demoted or released: Lara, again.

Low-A Fredericksburg

Rotation: Lord, Cornelio, Young, Tolman, Susana, with Atencio making spot starts

Changes in Last month: Bennett promoted and replaced with Lord. Sanchez to the DL, replaced with Young. Caceres promoted, replaced with Tolman.

Observations: The Fredericksburg rotation had a great month, with all 5 of its main starters featuring sub 3.00 ERAs all month and two of them getting promoted. Cornelio had a 2.30 ERA on the month but still walks too many guys. Lord has moved up from the bullpen to take a spot in the rotation for now and his holding on, with a 2.35 ERA on the month. Same with Luke Young, who’s earned another few turns in the rotation. Susana looks the best of them with a 1.02 ERA for the month as he seems to improve month over month. Tolman got bumped up from the rookie league (as he should have been, since he’s 23) and threw zeros in his first start. Even Atencio, who was demoted out of the rotation in May, got in on the action, throwing a spot start and dealing.

Next guy to get promoted: Susana

Next guy to get demoted or released: Nobody for now.

Rookie Florida Complex League

Rotation: Zapata, Ogando, Leon, Polanco, CSanchez, Agostini

Changes in Last month: none; this is the first go-around for the FCL

Observations: First off, the concept of a “rotation” in the rookie league probably is laughable, considering the sheer number of guys on this roster and the number of off-days they get. But a semblance of an organized rotation has taken shape. Tolman started in the rotation, threw three outings giving up just one run and got moved up. The rest of this rotation? Entirely comprised of IFAs; 5 of them 2021 IFAs and Sanchez being a 22IFA. So far: Sanchez, Ogando, and Leon are getting shelled; each has an ERA in the 9 or 10 range. Polanco and Agostini are relatively competent; ERAs in the 4-5 range. Both are probably better than their ERAs; its hard to have an 5+ era with an opponent BAA of .212 as Polanco has. Last you have Zapata; 0.75 ERA through 4 starts, but he’s got a 1.50 whip, so he’s dancing out of a lot of danger.

Next guy to get promoted: Maybe Zapata, probably instead one of the bullpen guys.

Next guy to get demoted or released: Ogando or Sanchez

Dominican Summer League

Rotation: Portorreal, Farias, HMoreno, Oliveros, Rivero

Changes in the last month: none; this is the first go-around for DSL

Observations: Ok, so we know the DSL Nats are terrible (they’re 2-18 as of this writing), but it isn’t because of the pitching. Ok, its not *entirely* because of the pitching. Its primarily because their entire starting batting lineup are 2023IFAs signed in January. They’re all children. And they’re not hitting at all. (Meanwhile, one of the Dodgers’ DSL teams is 20-0 to start the season, and their other team is in 2nd place of the division. Why don’t we have two DSL teams?? Why doesn’t everyone??)

The rotation so far is up and down: Rivero only has 3 strikeouts in 10 innings; that’s not gotta cut it. Farias and Oliveros have BAAs in the .320-.340 range. Also not going to cut it. Moreno has a solid BAA but has nearly as many walks as IP. The best performer so far has been Portorreal, a 23IFA so he’s young. 5 starts, 2.45 ERA, looks solid. A great signing so far, especially for his bonus amount.

In case you’re wondering, here’s the IFA tracker for bonus amounts to get a sense of who’s supposed to be performing. Nearly all our big bonus guys were batters; the biggest bonus pitcher went to a guy on the DL all year. Portorreal got just $10k that we know about, Moreno and Rivero were 23IFAs who probably got 10k or less. The other guys in this rotation; Oliveros in 22 for >$10k and Farias, who was a 19IFA and is still in the DSL; he’s rule-5 eligible after this season!

Next guy to get promoted: Portorreal

Next guy to get released: ERivero

Conclusions: most of my predicted promotions from last month took place, and we’re getting a ton of impressive results out of Low and High-A. Still need to see Henry get back into the swing of things to make me feel better.

Written by Todd Boss

July 2nd, 2023 at 11:04 am

Posted in Majors Pitching,Minor League Pitching,Minor League Rotation Reviews

Baseball America Nats top 30 mid-season check in

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House working his way back up the rankings. Photo via primetimesportstalk.com

Now that we’re past CWS, but not yet to the draft, lets clear out some psots.

If a major prospect scouting shop publishes a top 30 list, you know i’m all over it. On June 15th, BA did so for our team. Here’s an analysis of the list, looking at players who rose/fell against BA’s list in January, as well as how BA’s rankings for a player may be out of whack with the general consensus by all the major shops.

Here’s the Mid-Season BA top 30 list in order:

BA Rank 6/15/23Last NameFirst NamePosition
1WoodJamesOF (Corner)
2Hassell IIIRobertOF (CF)
3HouseBradySS/3B
4GreenElijahOF (CF)
5CavalliCadeRHP (Starter)
6RutledgeJacksonRHP (Starter)
7VaqueroCristianOF (CF)
8BennettJakeLHP (Starter)
9SusanaJarlinRHP (Starter)
10De La RosaJeremyOF (Corner)
11LileDaylenOF (CF)
12WhiteT.J.OF (Corner)
13HenryColeRHP (Starter)
14CruzArmandoSS
15LaraAndryRHP (Starter)
16IrvinJakeRHP (Starter)
17LipscombTrey3B
18FerrerJoseLHP (Reliever)
19PinedaIsraelC
20BrzykcyZachRHP (Reliever)
21AluJake3B
22QuintanaRoismarOF (CF)
23MillasDrewC
24ParkerMitchellLHP (Starter)
25CroninMattLHP (Reliever)
26SaenzDustinLHP (Starter)
27YoungJacobOF (CF)
28BakerDarren2B
29AcevedoAndyOF
30SolanoEdwinSS

Now, here’s some observations.

  • Same top 2 for BA as in January, and confirming that Wood may be the best player we got in the whole post-World Series dumping. He’s settled a bit since his AA promotion, but still has an OPS north of .800 in AA at age 20.
  • They’ve elevated House a couple spots, and they have him higher than anyone else had him this spring at #3. Why? Because he forced his way into High-A a couple of weeks ago and looks recovered from back and wrist issues. 2023 OPS so far: .829. not bad.
  • Big Riser: Rutledge; #9 in January, #6 now and in stark contrast to other shops, one of which has him all the way down at #17. And who can blame them? So far in 2023; 11 starts, 3.18 ERA, 1.11 whip in AA. Last year in Low-A: 20 starts, 4.90 ERA, 1.39 whip. I mean, who would have predicted that you’d take a guy who couldn’t get guys out in Low-A, bump him up two levels, and suddenly he’s a top prospect again?
  • Jake Bennett bumped up 3 spots from #11 to #8. It was probably dumb to start the guy in low-A as a 2nd round pick from a major conference with CWS experience … and rightfully so, he dominated it in April and early May. Lets hope he pushes for another promotion and ends the season in AA.
  • Daylen Lile: what is going on here? BA had him at #27 in January, basically a non-prospect, now he’s #11 in the system. A true CF with some power and a ton of speed (18 SBs in 19 attempts) and he’s hitting in low-A; he needs a promotion. But where will he go? High-A has 40-man player De La Rosa in CF, AA has Hassell, AAA has Alex Call. In this humble opinion, the Nats could (finally) cut bait on Antuna, who is hitting f*cking .151 in High-A after getting outrighted off the 40-man and it confounds me why he still plays, so as to make some room for Lile or Green, both of whom may need to be promoted soon.
  • Cole Henry treads water at #13, a bit lower than other shops. Its a “show me” season for Henry, to see if he’s recovered from a major shoulder issue. My hops are not high.
  • BA has bumped up Jake Irvin, rightfully so. He may be posting a 5.25 ERA in the majors, but at least he’s in the Majors … which, remember, is the entire point of prospects. Should Irvin be ranked higher than guys like Susana (#9) or Lara (#15), who can’t get guys out in the bus league? Yes he should.
  • Trey Lipscomb gets a bump up a few spots. He’s quietly made his way to AA a year after being drafted … think about this? Lipscomb was a 3rd rounder last year and is in AA, but Bennett was a 2nd rounder and is in High-A. Why? Lipscomb may be in AA due to positional scarcity; he’s not earning it at the plate with a sub-700 OPS figure right now, and he may very well trade spots with House in a few weeks when Brady needs to get moved up and play 3B.
  • #21 Jake Alu gets back onto the rankings after being dropped out of the top 30. #21 seems about right for a 4-A corner infielder/outfielder type.
  • Quintana dumped 5 spots, and rightfully so. He’s struggling in Low-A, and they’ve moved him to be a 1B/DH type. Not good; he’s gonna have to really hit to move forward as a 1B only guy.
  • Mitchell Parker has taken a nose-dive, from #14 in Jan to #24 today. Rightfully so; he’s finally getting hit after succeeding in Low and High-A in the last couple of years. I think this was an inevitability; scouts never favored the guy, who seemed to be getting outs mostly due to deception and a funky delivery. in AA, he’s been exposed so far. One of 2 things happens from here: he either “figures out the level” in early 2024 and keeps on moving, or he’s relegated to be “funky lefty out of the pen” guy, a role that might get him to the majors faster.
  • Matt Cronin also dumped a ton of spots, from #18 in January to #25, and rightly so; he’s getting shelled in AAA as a 25-yr old lefty bullpen arm. Word of caution; if they’re a reliever in college … they better be a really, really good reliever to count on them going forward.
  • Dustin Saenz pops onto the list at #26 after not being ranked by practically anyone for a while, on the strength of his dominating low-A and getting moved to Wilmington. Unfortunately, he was already too old for low-A, made one start in high-A and got shelled. We’ll see where he goes from here.
  • Jacob Young also resurrecting his prospect career, popping in at #27. the 2021 7th rounder without a ton of prospect cred hit .300 in high-A and got moved up to AA, where he’s sharing an OF with two of our best prospects in Hassell and Wood. He’s only 23, and he’s got some speed even if he’s undersized. Should be interesting to see where he goes.
  • Another guy without much prospect love pops in at #28: Darren Baker. I mean, the guy is now in AAA, starting at 24, hitting .300. I’m not sure why he’s not a higher-ranked prospect honestly. Maybe b/c he’s got a limited ceiling as a utility 2B guy in the majors.
  • The last two guys ranked were the top 2 prospects from the 2023 IFA class, Andy Acevedo and Edwin Solano. I call these types of prospects, “Call me in 3 years if/when they show up in Florida.”

Jan 2023 top 30 players now off the list:

  • #16 Thad Ward: probably has exhausted his rookie status at this point.
  • #23 Evan Lee: what happened to this guy? Went from AFL darling to 40-man to a lefty reliever who can’t get guys out in AA at age 26.
  • #26 Gerardo Carrillo; Maybe we over-rated this guy all along. Ok, maybe *I* overrated this guy all along. Initially he presented as a more important player in the big Scherzer/Turner trade; we got back Grey, Ruiz, Carrillo, and Casey. Clearly Ruiz and Grey were the prizes, Casey a utility throw in (who’s now 27 in AA hitting .201), and we have Carrillo, who has never really shown he can get guys out above A Ball and is on the season-ending DL list right now.
  • #28 Tim Cate: BA was one of the last hold-outs on the Tim Cate prospect bandwagon in January, now even they can’t find room.
  • #29 Aldo Ramirez: 8 good starts for Low-A in 2021, and he hasn’t pitched since. Missed all of 2022, still on the 60-day dl halfway through 2023. Will he ever come back?
  • #30 Will Frizzell, the Mr. Irrelevant of the Jan 2023 list. The team over-promoted him in the off season, quickly exposed him in AA as he hit .155, now he’s back in High-A where he should have been, hitting a healthy .889 OPS figure. Problem is … he’s been a full time DH this entire year, not even taking the field at 1B. Unless he’s posting a thousand OPS figure, its hard to be a prospect like that.

Other Notable names not ranked:

  • Brenner Cox: not every prospect shop likes him, and he couldn’t even come close to cutting it in Low-A this year. Might be a wasted prep 4th rounder.
  • Jared MacKenzie: he hit .400 in low-A last year, true CF. He’s not bad. Would you put him above a 1B only guy who’s the same age but in a lower league? Probably.
  • Seth Shuman: Looked great in High-A until a sudden season ending injury (which screams TJ); no wonder he’s not on the fringes of the top 30.
  • Samuel Infante, Brandon Boissiere, Jackson Cluff: what happened to these guys?
  • Yasel Antuna: just kidding.

Written by Todd Boss

June 28th, 2023 at 2:49 pm

Posted in Prospects

2023 CWS Finals: LSU Wins!

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Requisite dogpile post-win image via usatoday

The Final of the 2023 CWS couldn’t have featured two better teams for the marquee matchup of the year. Florida entered the tournament as the #2 overall seed and was 4th in RPI, having been a mainstay in the top-25 rankings for most of the year. LSU was the #1 ranked team for a good part of the season before slipping to #7 as the tourney started, was 5th in RPI, was the 5th seed in the event, and features the likely first 2 picks in the draft.

Here’s how the finals between Florida and LSU played out. I thought that Florida had the huge advantage by virtue of setting up their rotation, and based on the fact that LSU burned its ace Paul Skenes to get into the event.

  • Game 1 LSU’s #2 starter Ty Floyd pitched the game of his life, going 8 innings with 17 Ks to keep his team in a close game. LSU chased Florida’s ace Brandon Sproat early but Florida’s bullpen held strong. LSU’s big hitters came up strong all game: Crews scored the lead off run, their cleanup hitter Dugas hit a solo homer in the 3rd, and the previous game’s hero White tied the game in the 8th with a solo shot. Like the LSU-Wake Forest CWS semi final, this went to the 11th inning, where another big bopper from LSU (their DH Beloso) blasted a homer to right for the game winning run.
  • Game 2: Florida exposed LSU’s lack of pitching depth badly, setting a CWS scoring record and making it embarrassing in the later innings, winning 24-4. Florida’s 1st round stud Wyatt Langford went 5-5, a triple shy of a cycle (he hit a double in the 8th that he just couldn’t leg out a triple on). Amazing hitting performance.
  • Game 3: We were setup for a cringe-worthy appearance from Skenes, who sits on 3 days rest from his epic 120 pitch performance, and the LSU coach probably is saying to himself, “If i don’t get some zero run innings out of my ace, we’re not winning this thing.” However, LSU’s big bats just exploded, with Dylan Crews going 4-6 with a walk, Tommy White going 4-7, and LSU ran away with it in the same way Florida ran away with game two. Sunday starter Tommy Hurd (who entered the game with an era in the 6s) had one of his best career performances, holding Florida to 2 hits in 6IP, and by the time Skenes started throwing a heavy ball in the bullpen LSU was up by a touchdown and their coach (thankfully) kept him out of the game. LSU wins a laugher 18-4 behinds 24 hits and takes home the crown for the first time since 2009.

Your 2023 College World Series Champion: LSU

Here’s some links to past years of CWS coverage here. I’ve been doing this for 10 years now! Each link below is the blog post covering that CWS final

Written by Todd Boss

June 27th, 2023 at 9:05 am

Posted in College/CWS

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