Nationals Arm Race

Davey Martinez‘ moves all worked out.  He started Max Scherzer, he got 3 wipe-out innings from Stephen Strasburg in relief (his first relief appearance as a pro), he got contributions from both the guys he picked to start (Kendrick and Cabrera) and the guys he used as pinch hitters (Taylor and Zimmerman).  He got a homer from one of his marquee players (Turner) and he got the game-winning hit from his star-in-the-making (Soto).

I can’t quite believe it.  I was dismayed when the team went down 2-0 five minutes into the game.  I pretty much gave up when our 2-3-4 hitters went down meekly in the 6th.

Bravo to the team, bravo to fans.

Is this new #1 best ever Nats game?   Here’s my current top 5:

1. Werth walkoff, 2012 NLDS game 4
2. First ever home game, Apr 2005
3. Nats park opener, apr 2008
4. Lobaton homer/NLDS game 2 come back win
5. Zimmermann no-hitter to close 2014 reg season

Does this game supplant Werth walkoff?

We’ll post next once we see how the NLDS schedule shakes out.  I wonder how many days rest our two big arms need?

 

Here it is.  Its Wild Card Tuesday.

The red-hot Brewers (winners of 22 of their last 30) couldn’t quite catch the Cardinals and thus travel to DC.  Meanwhile, the suddenly hot Nationals (winners of 9 of their last 10) finished the season in destruction mode and should be fired up for the game.

Pitching Match-up: Max Scherzer; 11-7, 2.92 ERA vs Brandon Woodruff, 11-3, 3.62 ERA.

Season Series: 4-2 in favor of Milwaukee, but with a caveat.  The Nats got swept in Milwaukee in early May, when they were awful.  Woodruff pitched the series finale and dominated the Nats lineup of the day, throwing 6 innings of 4-hit, one-run, 9-K ball.  We threw Jeremy Hellickson, he got shelled, and a rare error from Anthony Rendon accounted for 3 unearned runs on the night.

When Milwaukee came to Washingotn, it was in mid August and they faced a different team: Washington took 2 of 3 at home, one game of which was the amazingly odd 15-14 game on August 17th where a tired Sean Doolittle blew a 3-run 9th inning lead and the beleagured bullpen forced the offense to extend the game three different times.  (Woodruff didn’t pitch in this series because he missed two months with an oblique injury starting in July 2019).

Scherzer hasn’t exactly lit the world on fire since his return from the D/L: in his 5 starts in September his seasonal ERA has risen half a point.

Looking at the Brewer’s splits; they walk a lot (2nd most in league), but as a team don’t actually have that great of an wRC+ figure … and that’s playing most of the season with Christian Yelich.  They hit lefties and righties about the same, so no real advantage/disadvantage there.  Their bullpen is supposedly a strength, but their bullpen macro stats (ERA/FIP/fWAR) are all middle of the pack.

Prediction: two weeks ago I would have been more pessimistic about this team.  But with Yelich out and finishing as strong as they did and basically being at full strength, I like the Nats here.  I think they put a couple runs on Woodruff early, they let Max settle in and he goes 7 innings (he’s going to be fired up, lets be honest).  Then you go 8th/9th guys w/o screwing up the LAD rotation.  That’s the hope anyway.

 

 

I posted in this space at the end of May a post called “If we’re waiving the white flag...” , which led to a rather spirited debate as to whether the team could even rebound.

Well, here we are at the end of September, and the team has clinched a wild Card spot.

Arbitrary endpoints for this team:

• May 23rd: 19-31: 2nd worst record in the NL (trailing only Miami)
• Since?  67-38; best in the NL.

Here’s my mea culpa; I lost hope in this team in May.  I gave up.  I cannot believe they turned around the season so well.   They’re still going to lose the division by 10 games, but they made it to the coin-flip game.

We won’t know the particulars of the WC game; is it going to be here or on the road?  Is it going to be against Milwaukee (likely) or will the reeling Cubs or floundering Mets pull a rabbit out of their hat to advance (not likely).  So I’ll save predictions and analysis until we know who and where we’re playing.

Congrats to the team for making it to the post season in a trying year ahead of (likely) an off-season of transition.

 

 

So, with a week to go, who’s in the lead for the #1 overall draft pick/largest bonus pool for the 2020 draft?

http://www.tankathon.com/mlb

I love that there’s an official “Tanking” page now tracking this.

With a week to go, here’s how we stack up (records as of 9/24/19).  There’s really only four teams to discuss; there’s a 7 game gap to the 5th worst team right now.

1. Detroit: 46-109, projecting to 48-114.  Remaining Schedule: home to Min, away to CWS.  Likely getting swept by Minnesota, who is pushing for playoff positioning but may get some wins against CWS.
2. Baltimore: 51-106, projecting to 53-109.  Remaining schedule: away to Tor, away to Bos.  may end up picking up a couple of wins here since all remaining teams also playing out the stretch.
3. Miami: 55-101, projecting to 57-105.  Remaining schedule: away to NYM, away to Phi.  May very well lose out, given that these two teams are finishing strong.  but seems locked into 3rd spot.
4. Kansas City: 57-100, projecting to 59-103.  Remaining schedule: home to Atl, home to Minn.  hosting all playoff teams still pushing, might lose out.

So, here’s the top 4 of next year’s draft.  At this point, it seems pretty likely that this will be the tankathon finish too.  Detroit is locked in for #1, Baltimore is pretty well locked into #2.  We might see a flip between 3 and 4 but doubtful since both teams are playing motivated squads to finish up.

So, what’s the prize of the 2020 draft?  Well, unlike 2019, when the conesnsus 1-1 overall pick Adley Rutschmann was pretty well established even at this early date, the 2020 draft isn’t consensus for #1 overall yet.   But the top few picks likely will include names from this list:

College top candidates for 2020

• Spencer Torkelson, 1B/LF Arizona State.   3rd team AA PG/Rawlings 2018 as a freshman.   2nd team d1baseball AA 2018.  2018 Collegiate USA team as freshman.  Hit 25 homers as a freshman, 22 homers as sophomore.  2nd team d1baseball.com AA as sophomore.  2nd team NCBWA AA as sophomore.   2nd team BA AA 2019 as sophomore.  2019 Collegiate National team
• Emerson Hancock, RHP Georgia.  High-90s fastball, 3-pitch guy, great sophomore numbers for #3 team in the land.  2nd team d1baseball.com AA 2019 as sophomore.  2nd team NCBWA AA as sophomore.  2nd team BA AA 2019 as sophomore
• Austin Martin, 2b/ss/3B Vanderbilt.  Slashed .410/.502/.603 as a sophomore w/ speed.  1st team d1baseball.com AA 2019 as sophomore.  Plays 6 positions, should be primary SS in 2020.  1st team BA AA 2019 as sophomore.  2019 Collegiate National team

Or, if a prep player goes:

• Pete Crow-Armstrong, OF (CF) Harvard-Westlake HS, CA.  top all-around prep position player in draft.   Vanderbilt commit.  3rd team Baseball america AA in 2019 as junior.  Maxpreps 2nd team AA as junior
• Blaze Jordan, 1B/3B DeSoto Central High School (Southaven, Mississippi).  Re-classified/graduating early.   Mississippi State commit
• Dylan Crews, OF Lake Mary HS (Fla).  LSU commit.  PG has him as #2 prep player in class, long-time member of US national teams.

The last time Detroit picked 1st overall, they got a guy in Casey Mize in 2018 who dominated high-A in 6 starts to begin the 2019 season, then threw a no-hitter in his AA debut.  He finished off AA this year with solid numbers for a 22 yr old, and could be featuring in the Detroit rotation mid-next season … that is if the team doesn’t play service time manipulation games.

 

 

 

Last post covering local baseball for 2019; this one tries to summarize all the various “Player of the Year” announcements from various shops, both local and national.

I kind of ran out of gas on this one; fighting through a dozen different paywalls and I never could find the official announcements of Virginia regional all-player lists.   But this is still a pretty good summary of the various POTY lists.

 

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Individual Player Accolades Announced

In addition to being playoff-baseball time, this is also the time of the year that we start to see player awards.  I’ll put these in as they publish, but we won’t expect most of these until the end of June.

National Lists and State breakouts as available.

• Gatorade Player of the year awards.  National POTY was Bobby Witt Jr., drafted 2nd overall in the 2019 baseball draft.
  • Maryland:  Jack Bulger, Jr. C from DeMatha.  Early commit to Vanderbilt.
  • Washington DC: Collin Bosley-Smith, Jr. RHP from Wilson.   Early commit to Duke.
  • Virginia: Nate Savino, Jr. LHP from Potomac Falls.  Early commit to UVA.

• MaxPreps High School All-Americans: Bobby Witt Jr. National POTY.   Local players: Jack Bulger (DeMatha), Lyle Miller-Green, RHP/1B from Lake Braddock named to 2nd team.
• Baseball America High School All-Americans: no POTY declared.  No local players on 1st, 2nd or 3rd teams.
• USA Today/American Family All-USA teams: Bobby Witt Jr. National POTY.  Local players: Jack Bulger (DeMatha) named to 1st team, Brett Cook from Benedictine 2nd team.  Jamari Baylor HM.
• American Baseball Coaches Association (ABCA)/Rawlings 2019 High School All Americans:  Bobby Witt named POTY.  local players Jack Bulger C DeMatha and Joe Clancy RHP Westfields named to 3rd team.
  • (Index of all ABCA/Rawlings all-american lists, High School and College, dating to 1949 (!) is at this link, and all POTYs for all levels historically at this link).
• Collegiate Baseball High School All-Americans: Bobby Witt Jr. National POTY.   Local players on 1st team: Jose Torres, SS Calvert Hall HS in Baltimore (NC State commit.).  2nd team: Jack Bulger (DeMatha), Parker Landwehr C Calvert Hall (Boston College commit).
• Perfectgame.org/Rawlings All-Americans: (unclear if they’re still doing these lists).
  • Maryland:
  • Washington DC:
  • Virginia:
• PrepBaseballReport; Brett Bady national POTY.  12th overall pick by NY Mets.
  • All Maryland Team: Ryan Calvert, RHP/1B from LaPlata HS POTY as a junior.
  • All Virginia/DC Team:  Lyle Miller-Green, RHP/1B from Lake Braddock POTY.  George Mason commit.

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DC/MD/VA Local

• Washington Post All-Met team 2019: Lyle Miller-Green, RHP/1B from Lake Braddock POTY.  George Mason commit.
  • (here’s a great list of every All-Met team named since 1990 in all sports; fantastic resource for local prep sports fans).
• The Baltimore Sun’s All-Metro Team: Jose Torres, SS Calvert Hall HS in Baltimore.  NC State commit.
• Richmond Times-Dispatch All-Metro Team: (behind a paywall)
• Virginian Pilot All-Tidewater team: Mason Dunaway, SS Hickory is POTY.  JMU commit.
• Virginia Class 6 All Region Teams
  • Region A (Tidewater) All Regional team:
  • Region B (Richmond) All Regional team:
  • Region C (Northern VA, inner suburbs) All-Regional team: Lyle Miller-Green, RHP/1B from Lake Braddock POTY.  George Mason commit.
  • Region D (Northern VA, Western Suburbs) All Regional team: Zach Agnos, RHP from Battlefield HS POTY.  ECU commit like his brother ahead of him.
• Virginia Class 5 All Region Teams
  • Region A (Tidewater area) All-Regional team:
  • Region B (Richmond) All Regional team:
  • Region C (Northern VA) All Regional team: Ben Williamson, SS Freedom-South Riding.  William & Mary commit.
  • Region D (Northwest and Western VA) All Regional team: Drew Harlow, RHP/SS Halifax county POTY.  Undecided/no commit as of 6/8/19
• Virginia Class 4 All Region Teams
  • Region A (Tidewater area) All-Regional team:
  • Region B (Richmond) All Regional team:
  • Region C (Northern VA) All Regional team: Joe Vogatsky, jr RHP/3B from Kettle Run HS POTY.   early commit to JMU.
  • Region D (Northwest and Western VA) All Regional team:
• Other Virginia All-Regional teams: harder to come by:
  • Class 3 Region B (Culpepper/Warrenton area) All Regional team: Jake (Jakob) Dudley, 1B/3B from Culpeper County HS is POTY.  No college listed.
  • Class 2 Region B (NorthWest VA) all Region Team:  T.R. Williams, Sophomore RHP from Page County POTY.
• Northern Virginia All-District teams:

• NovaBaseballMagazine Nova Nine top 100 list: Joey Kamide‘s top 100 players from the 85 high schools in the NoVa coverage area.
• NovaBaseballMagazine Nova Nine:  Lyle Miller-Green, RHP/1B from Lake Braddock POTY.  George Mason commit.
• VHSL All-State Teams: all 6 teams available from this link.
  • 6-A: Lyle Miller-Green, RHP/1B from Lake Braddock POTY.  George Mason commit.
  • 5-A: Michael Tolson RHP/oF from Stafford POTY.   Western Carolina U commit.
  • 4-A: Quade Tomlin, SS jr from Liberty Christian Academy POTY.  Liberty U commit.
  • 3-A: Jacob Critzer, C Fluvana County HS POTY.    No college commitment known.
  • 2-A: Andrew Potojecki, RHP Chatham HS (Danville) POTY.  Longwood College commit.
  • 1-A: Matthew Kleinfelter, RHP Lancaster HS POTY.   JMU commit.
• VISAA’s All-State teams
  • Division III All State Team: Tanner Schobel, SS Walsingham Academy  (Williamsburg) POTY as Junior.  Early Virginia Tech commit.
  • Division II All State Team: Jeremy Wagner, OF/RHP from the Miller School (Albemarle) POTY as Junior.  Early Austin Peay commit.
  • Division I All State Team: Aiden Kuhle, RHP/1B from Cape Henry Collegiate (Virginia Beach) POTY.  Roanoke College commit.
• Maryland All-MIAA All-State teams:
  • MIAA A division: behind a paywall
  • MIAA B division: behind a paywall
  • MIAA C division: behind a paywall
• Maryland State Association of Baseball Coaches (MSABC) All-Maryland teams: four regional all-star teams picked for exhibitions.
  • here’s a great history of the MSABC games, including past rosters.
• Maryland Brooks Robinson All-Star game rosters
• Anne-Arundel County All-Baseball team: unknown
• Montgomery County All-Baseball Team: unknown
• All Baltimore-City Baseball team: behind a paywall
• All Fredericksburg Baseball team:  Michael Tolson RHP/oF from Stafford POTY.   Western Carolina U commit.
• All WCAC: unknown
• All IAC: unknown
• All MAC: unknown

If I missed an award, or if you know of something I don’t, don’t hesitate to post.

 

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Past awards that no longer seem to be in existence:

• Louisville Slugger All-Americans: last awarded in 2016.
• National High School Coaches Association (NHSCA) POTY: last awarded in 2017.
• Under Armor All-Americans: perhaps there used to be selections, but now there’d just a game mid-July of mostly rising senior all stars.
• USA Today/American Family All-State Teams and POTYs: stopped doing state-level all-state baseball teams for 2019.

Another year, another mad scramble at the trade deadline to fortify the bullpen.

So, how does this year’s moves look?

Honestly … pretty good, all things considered.

• Acquired: Hunter Strickland, Daniel Hudson, Roenis Elias
• Traded away: Taylor Guilbeau, Elvis Alvarado, Aaron Fletcher, Kyle Johnston
• 40-man Moves to make room: DFA Javy Guerra, Michael Blazek and move Jonny Venters to 60-day DL.
• 25-man Moves to make room: Guerra, Blazek and one tbd as of this writing
• Salary acquired: just $1.233M per Mark Zuckerberg , thus staying under the Luxury tax.
• Mid-season prospect rankings of traded away assets per MLBPipeline/Baseball America/Fangraphs:
  • Taylor Guilbeau: #15 on MLB/#14 on BA/#20 on Fangraphs
  • Elvis Alvarado: unranked on all three
  • Aaron Fletcher: #21/#19/unranked on Fangraphs
  • Kyle Johnston: #27/#21/unranked on fangraphs

So, I’ll take these moves.   The team traded from strength (college-age pitching prospects) to acquire a position of need, and got some decent control with a couple of them to boot.  Irrespective of the underlying stats of these three guys … they’re upgrades over the two guys DFA’d and/or the guys who still remain in the bullpen with seasonal ERAs that start with a 4 (Wander Suero, Tony Sipp), a 5 (Matt Grace) or a 6 (Kyle Barraclough, mercifully already demoted to AA).

Strickland has been  hurt all year, and saw  his 2019 numbers take a dive from 2018, but for his career he’s still a solid player and is a good gamble.  I’m guessing whatever remnant remains of the clubhouse stemming from his ridiculous and immature plunking of Bryce Harper will talk it out and move on.   Elias’ time as Seattle’s closer has also left his numbers in decline versus last year, but he’ll step into a different role here and won’t have as many high-leverage spots.  Hudson (who was born in Lynchburg and went to ODU in Norfolk) has an interesting career, was once a very promising starter for Arizona before missing an entire season due to injury.  He was featured prominently in Jeff Passan‘s book The Arm since Hudson had to do two Tommy John’s in two years … but he’s been healthy since (relegated to the bullpen).

It seems to me that the new bullpen lineup (assuming all healthy), will go like this:

• Closer: remains Doolittle
• Setup/8th inning: Strickland and Elias
• 7th inning: Rodney, Hudson, Rainey
• longer relief: Suero, Grace/Sipp

It remains to be seen who gets optioned back; Suero has been solid for a couple of weeks, Rainey has given up just one run this month, Grace has scuffled, Sipp had treaded water, so it remains to be seen.

Will these moves win the Nats the Pennant?  Hardly.  Despite their decent form as of late, they’ve picked up just 1.5 games on Atlanta and seem to be competing for the WC.  Atlanta drastically improved their bullpen, getting better, more expensive assets, and Philly made moves to improve their rotation (moves the Nats couldn’t do b/c of salary cap issues).

Which of the traded assets am I most bummed to see go?

• Guilbeau had a fantastic year in AA, has struggled a bit in AAA in SSS and could feature as a MLB reliever for some teams.  He’s in his 5th pro season, has already been rule-5 eligible for two years, but may still be more than an org-guy.  A nice turnout for a 10th round pick.
• Elvis Alvarado: a lottery ticket, 20-yr old recently converted pitcher who’s been in the GCL “rotation” this year and has more walks than IP.
• Aaron Fletcher: a fantastic 2018 14th round pick who has shot up the Nats system this year, blowing away both Low-A and High-A and currently holding his own more or less in AA SSS.
• Kyle Johnston: Probably the most pedigree’d player moved, a 6th rounder in 2017 who has been in the Potomac rotation all year, pitching pretty well.

I think I was most interested to see how Fletcher turned out, then to see if Johnston could make the jump to AA next year.  Guilbeau may have already peaked as an org guy, and Alvarado is 5 years away.

Thoughts?

 

The 7/15/19 deadline has passed, and the Nats have their official Draft class.

The last two top-10 round players signed (CWS participants Drew Mendoza and Matt Cronin) signed with little fan-fare and suddenly we had Mendoza showing up in Hagerstown.  We learned later he signed an over-slot deal for $800k, about $181k over slot and using up basically every last penny of our 2019 bonus pool and the 5% cushion.   (nearly every penny; see below for what the Nats did with the leftover dollars): Here’s a summary of the top-10 picks and the over-slot guys counting against the cap:

Round	Overall	Name	Position	Col/HS	College or Cmtm	State	Bonus Amt	Slot Value	Savings off of Slot?
1	17	Rutledge, Jackson	RHP (Starter)	Col J2	San Jacinto College North (TX	TX	3450000	3609700	159700
3	94	Mendoza, Drew	3B	Col Jr	Florida State U	FL	800000	618200	-181800
4	123	Cronin, Matt	LHP (Reliever)	Col Jr	Arkansas	AR	464500	464500	0
5	153	Dyson, Tyler	RHP (Starter)	Col Jr	Florida	FL	500000	346800	-153200
6	183	Cluff, Jackson	SS	Col So	BYU	UT	200000	266000	66000
7	213	Peterson, Todd	RHP (Reliever)	Col Jr	LSU	LA	220000	208200	-11800
8	243	Ydens, Jeremy	OF (CF)	Col Jr	UCLA	CA	169500	169500	0
9	273	McMahon, Hunter	RHP (Starter)	Col Jr	Texas State	TX	152600	152600	0
10	303	Pratt, Andrew	C	Col Sr	Lubbock Christian	TX	10000	144100	134100
11	333	Arruda, J.T.	SS	Col Jr	Fresno State	CA	250000	125000	-125000
13	393	Randa, Jake	OF (corner)	Col J2	NW Florida State	FL	300000	125000	-175000
14	423	Knowles, Lucas	LHP (Starter)	Col J3	Central Arizona College	AZ	136980	125000	-11980

The Nats gave over-slot deals to:

• 3rd rounder Mendoza
• 5th rounder Tyler Dyson
• 7th rounder Todd Peterson
• 11th rounder J.T. Arruda
• 13th rounder Jake Randa.
• 14th rounder Lucas Knowles, who gets the $11,980 exactly left over after the Nats signed Mendoza.  It seems like they signed Mendoza, calculated their remaining dollars with the 5% cushion, and gave Knowles that number and he took it.

I especially like the 11th and 13th round deals: Arruda got 6th round money and Randa got 5th round money, so that gives our draft class some extra talent.

Meanwhile, under-slot deals given to 1st rounder Jackson Rutledge, 6th rounder  Jackson Cluff, and 10th rounder Andrew Pratt enabled these moves.  I’m especially surprised that Rutledge signed for under slot, after having fallen on most draft boards.  This usually indicates that a player will demand over-slot money, not accept under-slot money.  The team made just one Senior Sign/blatant bonus money move, the 10th round catcher Pratt.

Bonus Pool Accounting for 2019:

• Original Bonus amount for top 10 rounds: $5,979,600
• Bonus amount plus 5% cushion: $6,278,580
• Total Bonuses given counting against the cap: $6,216,600
• Total savings/space left: 0$ exactly.  As noted above, the final $11,980 went to Knowles.
• Total known Bonus money paid, all rounds: $7,536,600

the Nats paid a slew of $125k deals in the 11th-20th rounds to secure all these Juco guys.

Biggest surprise signings:

• 23rd rounder HS pick Michael Cuevas, who took the $125k to forgoe a Juco commitment and come on board out of HS
• 13th rounder Randa, who got bought out of a SEC Mississippi State transfer commitment.
• 14th rounder Knowles, who seemed like he was bailing until offered slightly more than $125k and signed.
• 32nd rounder Dylan Beasley, a college Junior who took $50k to turn pro.

Biggest surprise non-signings:

• none really: our 26th rounder college Senior Dupree Hart has yet to sign as of 7/9/19, and his twitter says he’s a “financial Advisor” with Northwestern Mutual, so he may be declining a pro baseball career.

All told, 29 of their 39 picks got signed.

Assignments for the class:

• 12 to GCL, including several college seniors who are going to be way too old for the level
• 5 who spent a few days in GCL then went to Short-A
• 9 Straight to Short-A
• 3 straight to Low-A: Mendoza, Cronin and Cluff; havn’t seen a draft pick straight to such a high level since Stephen Strasburg, unless i’m not remembering someone in particular

 

 

 

 

Now that our short-season domestic staffs have now had one full “turn” through the rotation, I thought i’d be a good time to do another rotation check-in.

We’ve done two previously, which we’ll leverage throughout here:

• 4/15/19 Good and Bad starts
• 5/15/19 Mid-May check-in

Note: I wrote much of this prior to the 7/2/19 games, so a few roster moves and observations may be missing.  Also, feel free to add in more detailed commentary for those who have studied the players more closely in a particular level; i did not do “just last month” splits on every single player so some players who have significantly improved upon slow starts (or the reverse) may be missed.

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AAA/Fresno 2019

• Rotation Now: Fedde, JRoss, McGowin, Hoover, Braymer
• Rotation Mid-May: Voth, McGowin, Copeland, Espino, MSanchez.
• Rotation to Start: McGowin, Copeland, Voth, Espino, Alvarez

Changes in the rotation since last post: Voth has earned his promotion, and then earned more starts over Fedde at the MLB level.  It looks like the “hey lets use Joe Ross as a reliever” experiment is finally over; he’s been returned to Fresno to officially get stretched out and return to the rotation.  Espino is on the DL, replaced by Hoover (who suddenly at 31 is a starter after years of pitching in relief?).  Sanchez got demoted and replaced by Braymer, who just arrived.  Lastly Copeland has been returned to the long-man/spot starter role.  The sole holdover from 6 weeks ago is McGowin … but what this doesn’t show is his own up-and-back movement.  Lots of shuffle in the Fresno rotation.

I’d like to highlight Ben Braymer though, because his being in AAA is pretty amazing.  He was an 18th round pick in 2016, signed for just $100k out of Auburn, and now sits in the AAA rotation at the edge of the majors.  I don’t think the Nats have seen such a low-round pick make it this far since perhaps Stephen Lombardozzi, a 19th rounder in 2008.

• Bullpen Now: Self, Bacus, Blazek,  Kontos, Bourque, Baez with Alvarez, Copeland as long-men/spot starters
• Bullpen mid-may:  Rainey, Hoover, Self, Bacus, Nuno, JMills*, Blazek with Alvarez as long-man/spot starter.
• Bullpen to start: AAdams, Rainey, Hoover, Nuno, Self, Cordero and Bacus  with Dragmire as a spot-starter

Changes in the bullpen since last post: Rainey promoted … and immediately became Nats bullpen savior of the week.  Hoover now in the rotation.  Nunu cut loose after posting a 7.25 ERA in 22 innings.  Mills sent back down.  Bourque was promoted to the majors from AA, then optioned back to AAA.  Baez promoted from AA.  Kontos signed.  Copeland dumped to bullpen.  Rodney signed and quickly promoted.   Lastly Cordero, who was in DFA limbo last post, was claimed by Toronto and is gone.  Phew; that’s 10 different moves for the team, just 3 guys in the same place they were 6 weeks ago, and just two stable names from day one.

Who’s hot:  Dakota Bacus continues to be the most impressive reliever in AAA, maintaining a seasonal ERA of 2.36 and a whip of 1.19.   Ross’ numbers as a starter in Fresno are respectable; 3.68 ERA in 5 starts with just 4 walks.

Who’s not?  Kontos has not been good so far, but a lot of his ERA is one bad outing in Salt Lake.  Howell has gotten shelled in basically each of his last 6-7 outings and looks toast from the stat sheets.

Who’s next guy to get the call?   I think Bacus deserves the next call-up, perhaps over Bourque even though he’s not on the 40-man.  I’d like to see Ross get the next spot start, on regular rest.

Who’s next to get the Axe?   I think the team may be reaching the end of the line with over-30 MLFA guys like Kontos and Hoover, now that they’ve got a slew of new draft picks in.

How are we doing with these mini-predictions so far?

• April: Adams and Voth to get the call, Dragmire to get the Axe.  Results?  Adams released (?), Voth now in Majors, Dragmire now demoted.
• May: Voth, Rainey to get the call.  Hoover, Mills, Sanchez, Dragmire to get the Axe.  Results:  Voth, Rainey now in Majors.  Mills, Sanchez, Dragmire demoted.  Hoover still hanging in there.

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AA/Harrisburg 2019

• Rotation Now: Mapes, Fuentes, MSanchez, Tetreault, Crowe with ALee just called up
• Rotation Mid-May: Crowe, Tetreault, Sharp, Mapes, Braymer
• Rotation to Start: Crowe, Fedde, Sharp, Mapes, Braymer*

Changes since last post: Sharp to the D/L, replaced by Fuentes.  Braymer got bumped up, replaced by MSanchez coming back down.  Lastly Lee just got promoted and may be taking someone’s spot.

• Bullpen now: Condra-Bogan, RPena, Guilbeau*,  JMills*, ABarrett, Bonnell with Dragmire spot starts.
• Bullpen Mid-May: Bourque, Condra-Bogan, RPena, Guilbeau*, ABarrett with Baez, Ondrusek, Fuentes as swingmen/spot starters
• Bullpen to start: Bourque,  Brinley, Condra-Bogan, JMills*, RPena,  Guilbeau*, ABarrett with  swingman/spot starts by Baez and MSanchez

Changes since last post: Bourque up, Baez up.  Fuentes moved from swingman to rotation.  Ondrusek bounced around, he’s currently on the AAA D/L.  Mills was up and is now back.  Bonnell was signed after being dropped by Tampa and has been pretty solid.   Venters was signed, appeared briefly and was called up for bullpen reinforcement duty.  Lastly Dragmire is dumped here after posting a double digit ERA in Fresno.

Who’s hot: Steven Fuentes has continued right where he left off in High-A, and holds a 1.80 ERA in 11 appearances/7 starts in AA.  He’s only 22.  I’m guessing we’re going to start seeing more of him on Nats top10 farm lists if he keeps this up.

Who’s not? Nobody is pitching egregiously bad honestly; Mapes and Tetreault are both posting worse than you’d like to see numbers but Tetreault is just 23 and is in AA for the first time.  Mapes is a bit more concerning; he’s now 27, in his 6th pro season, was a 30th round pick probably given a 4-figure bonus, and the team has almost nothing invested in him.

Who’s next guy to get the call?   Barrett?  I wonder what else he has to prove in AA at this point.   I’d say its a bit too early to promote Fuentes, and the rest of the rotation needs more time in AA.

Who’s next to get the Axe?  Mapes may be at the end of the line, given his draft pedigree.

How are we doing with these mini-predictions so far?

• April: Crowe, Fedde to get the call.  Sharp, Gilbeau to get the Axe.  Results?  Fedde up, the rest still hanging in there
• May: Crowe, Bourque to get the call.  Pena to get the Axe.  Results?  Bourque up, Crowe and Pena still hanging in AA.

 

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High-A/Potomac 2019

• Rotation Now: Johnston, Raquet*, Cate*, ?, MPena (the question mark is because Lee got promoted the day we were writing this)
• Rotation Mid-May: Johnston, Borne*, Raquet*, ALee, MPena.
• Rotation to Start: Johnston, Borne*, Tetreault, Raquet*, MPena, LReyes

Changes since last post: Borne to the D/L, Lee promoted.  To replace them we got Cate from Low-A and a question mark the be filled (if it were me) by Teel.   Otherwise a very steady rotation here: 3 of the 5 havn’t changed since opening day.

• Bullpen now: Bartow, German, Istler, Fletcher* with Howard*, LReyes, Pantoja, Teel*, McKinney as swingmen.
• Bullpen Mid-May: Bogucki,  McKinney,  Bartow, JRomero, LReyes, German with Howard*,  Teel* as swingmen
• Bullpen to start: Acevedo, Bogucki, Fuentes,   McKinney,  Bartow with swingman/spot starts by Howard*,  ALee,

Changes from last time:  Istler returns from XST/witness protection.  Fletcher promoted from low-A, along with Pantoja (and Teel, and Cate: we’ve seen 5 promotions so far).  Bogucki released.

Who’s hot:  I like what I see out of Teel and Fletcher so far, both mid-season promotions.  Fletcher has a 24/5 K/BB ratio since being promoted a few weeks back, and Teel has now made it to his 4th pro level since being drafted last June.   Amazingly, Reyes seems to have found his calling, going 10 straight outings without giving up a run.

Who’s not? Raquet has the worst WHIP of the rotation, and Pena the worst ERA.  Yet both remain mainstays in the Potomac bullpen.  Raquet is putting up almost identical numbers to last year, but as a high-bonus 3rd rounder probably gets more rope than a similarly producing 15th rounder.  Pena is just 22 but may be working towards another year in Potomac.

Who’s next guy to get the call?  Istler really should be in AA; he’s given up zero runs in 10 High-A innings, which shouldn’t be a surprise since he spent most of last year in AA posting a 2.53 ERA.  Why exactly is he in Potomac?

Who’s next to get the Axe?  Unclear; McKinney’s season numbers are poor but he’s pitched a number of clean outings since his return from the D/L.  Cate’s first two starts havn’t been stellar.  I don’t have a great case for anyone to get demoted or cut.

How are we doing with these mini-predictions so far?

• April: Tetreault and Fuentes up.  Reyes and Bourne to get the axe..  Results?  Both Tetreault and Fuentes since promoted.  Reyes dumped from the rotation finally, Borne on the D/L.
• May: Nobody to get the call.  Bogucki and Reyes to get the Axe.  Results?  Bogucki indeed released, Reyes demoted to the pen but succeeding in new role.

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Low-A/Hagerstown 2019

• Rotation Now: Alastre, Schaller, Irvin, Adon, Stoeckinger*
• Rotation Mid-May: Alastre, Adon, Cate*, Irvin, FPeguero.
• Rotation to Start: Alastre/Day, Adon, Cate*/Tapani, Irvin/Teel*, FPeguero/AGuillen, Strom/Stoeckinger*

Changes since last post: Cate Promoted, Peguero to the D/L.  To replace them we’ve seen Schaller promoted up from XST/GCL and Stoeckinger pulled from the tandem starter ranks.  Like with Potomac, 3 of the 5 starters the same since opening day.

• Bullpen now: Brasher, Tapani, Day, Howell, RWilliamson*, AGuillen as tandem starters/swingmen, TTurner, Vann* as conventional relievers.
• Bullpen Mid-May: Stoeckinger*, AGuillen, RWilliamson*, Tapani, Fletcher*, Day as tandem starters, Brasher, TTurner in the pen as more conventional relievers.
• Bullpen to start:  Day, Tapani, Teel, AGullen, Stoeckinger as tandem starters, German,  Fletcher* as conventional relievers.

changes since last post: Howell returns to the fold after missing all of 2018 with injury.  Fletcher promoted.  Vann (a 2018 draftee) promoted up from XST/GCL.

Who’s hot: Stoeckinger has earned his spot in the rotation (if, indeed he stays there).  2.54 ERA, 1.19 whip in 39 IP as a tandem starter this year.

Who’s not?  Alastre continues to struggle in the rotation; hes now ballooned to a 6.11 ERA and 1.71 whip on the year while repeating the level.   He’s only 21 though, so he’s got plenty of time.  Howell has struggled since his reinstatement, and he does not have a ton of time, being a lower round pick coming off injury.

Who’s next guy to get the call?  Turner has had a nifty time in the Low-A bullpen; 28 Ks in 17 innings.  I’d also say Peguero, who has the best stats of any starter, but he’s on teh D/L currently.

Who’s next to get the Axe?  Alastre.  Howell.

How are we doing with these mini-predictions so far?

• April: Peguero and Fletcher up.  Alastre to get the Axe.  Results?  Peguero hurt, Fletcher up, Alastre still in the rotation.
• May: Cate, Fletcher, Peguero up.  Brasher to get the demotion.  Results?  Peguero hurt, Fletcher and Cate up.  Brasher still holding on, having gone an entire month w/o giving up a run.

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Short-A/Auburn 2019

• rotation: NGomez, PGonzalez, CRomero, RGomez, Strom, Troop*
• tandem starters: Chu*, Galindez*/AMartinez, AHernandez*, Segura
• bullpen: JPeguero*, Willingham, Yankowsky,  Milacki, FPerez, ELee*, McMahan, McMahon, Moore, 

Its a little early to pass judgement on the starts out of Auburn, but we’ll do it anyway.   I will note though that with recent 2019 draftee assignments, there’s now TWENTY (20) arms on the squad.  So you have to wonder if we’re about to see some shedding.

Who’s hot:  Niomar Gomez has had 3 solid starts to begin the season, picking up where he left off last year.  Troop, in his 3rd pro season, has yet to give up a run while posting a 12/0 K/BB ratio in two starts and needs to be moved up.  Strom looks solid, after struggling in Low-A, and may be stuck between levels.

Who’s not?   18yr old Pedro Gonzalez has had 3 starts; in those 3 starts he’s pitched a grand total of 4 innings, given up 13 hits 5 walks and 18 total runs.  Those are Trevor Rosenthal numbers.  He had a 9.60 ERA in the GCL last  year; why exactly is he in Short-A going against college draftees 4 years his senior?

Who’s next guy to get the call?   Troop

Who’s next to get the Axe?  Gonzalez.

 

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Rookie/GCL 2019

• rotation: Denaburg, Alvarado/Seijas, Yean, Pozo, Rutledge, Peterson
• tandem starters: Hiraldo, BPena*, Beasley
• bullpen: Jameson, WSeverino, Amoroso, Dyson, Ferrer*, Cuevas, Ribalta

We’re basically one “turn” through the GCL rotation, and now we have 1st round pick Jackson Rutledge in Florida for (presumably) a short stay.  Surprise 2019 signees Michael Cuevas and  Orlando Ribalta are also here and may themselves be in the rotation (they were just assigned yesterday or today).

The Big News here is Mason Denaburg of course.  He’s finally on a team and pitching professionally.  Through two starts, he’s given up a couple runs in 7 innings, with a few too many walks.

Who’s hot:  too early

Who’s not?   too early.

Who’s next guy to get the call?  Rutledge really shouldn’t be here long.  Neither should Tyler Dyson, 5th round 2019 pick from Florida.  And neither should Todd Peterson, 7th round pick out of LSU.  Generally speaking, SEC starters are Short-A talents at worst, and should be fast tracked to Low-A

Who’s next to get the Axe? nobody.

 

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XST names of interest

• Why hasn’t Nick Wells been assigned to a level yet??  He was traded for weeks ago.
• Robbie Dickey has not pitched since 2016,  yet still remains in XST.
• 4th rounder Matt Cronin has yet to be assigned to a team; i’m really curious to see if he can move fast.

 

Two arbitrary (well, not really arbitrary) endpoints for the Nats season so far:

• Nats from opening day to the end of the 4-game sweep in NY on 5/23/19: 19-31
• Nats from that series  until Friday 6/28/19 (the halfway point exactly on the season: 22-9

I wrote the team off in this space at the end of May.  I’m honestly amazed the same team that went 19-31 suddenly was capable of going 22-9.  Did I speak too soon?  Maybe.  Fangraphs has drastically improved their playoff https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds oddsprojections for this team, from the 20% range back then to nearly 60% now.  Primarily this seems to be due to their simultaneously being bearish on the primary wild card competitors Philly, Colorado and Milwaukee.

Cynic’s view: they’ve gotten healthy thanks to lots of games against awful teams (Miami, Detroit) and mediocre-to-bad teams (Chicago WS, Cincinnati).  They also swept a divisional rival in a funk (Philly) and treaded water against  San Diego and Arizona.  Their toughest games in this entire stretch were 5 against Atlanta (going 3-2), so you have to acknowledge that.

They also get 6 straight games this week against the dregs of the league, and may very well go 5-1 or 6-0 in those games.   Which will really  make their first half suddenly look amazing.

The question is this: even if this team goes 6-0 and gets to the all star break at 48-41 … likely in the lead for or close to the WC lead … we need to remember to withhold judgement until the end of July.  Why?  Because this Nats season is hinging on the brutal 3-city post-all star trip they will be playing:

• 3 in Philly
• 2 in Baltimore
• 4 in Atlanta.
• 4 home to Colorado
• 3 home to LA
• 3 home to Atlanta

Those are some difficult series.   Yes Philly has been struggling but they’re still a division rival that just swept 4 games from the Mets.   Yes the Orioles are in last place, but they’re still an AL team that we’ve historically struggled to beat in interleague play year over year.  And then the big one: 4 straight in Atlanta.  That series takes us to basically the trade deadline.   After that the team returns home … for three of the toughest opponents they’ll face all year, and 10 games that they’ll be lucky to go .500 in.

Here’s my concern; I am skeptical the team can keep this pace up, for obvious reasons.  I’m also worried about them getting shellacked once they play good teams.  What happens if this team gets waxed in early August and is suddenly back below .500, after the trade deadline has passed?  An opportunity will be lost to flip our trade-able assets for prospects, with little chance of getting to the post season.

Of course … its worth saying that even if the team “only” gets a Wild Card … i like our odds throwing Max Scherzer in a winner-take-all game, even if it makes it that much harder to win the divisional series.

So what does the group think?  Are you back on the bandwagon now?  We’ve never seen this team go through so much turmoil in a season.

 

Here’s my annual Nationals All Star selection post.

Nats All Star Game Trivia:

• All-time leader in Nats all-star appearances: Harper with 6 appearances.  Scherzer has been named 7 times but some pre-dated his time here (he has 5 with the Nats now)
• All-time leader in All-Star Game starts: Harper, who had 5 starts.
• Total number of Starters in the history of the Franchise: Now is 10; Harper 5 times, Scherzer twice, and one each for Soriano, Murphy, Zimmerman.
• Most all-star players named in a single year: 5 in both 2016 and 2017.
• Least all-star game players named in a single year: 1 in multiple years during the “dark years” of 2006 through 2011.

(* == All-Star game starter)

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2019

• Nationals All-Star representatives: Max Scherzer, Anthony Rendon
• Possible Snubs: Juan Soto, Stephen Strasburg, Howie Kendrick, Trevor Rosenthal (just kidding)
• Narrative: Rendon finally is named to an all-star team, having played in the shadows of other more well-known NL third basemen for  years.  Arbitrary Endpoints: Rendon is 7th in baseball among hitters in total fWAR since 2014.  7th.  In the entire league.  And this is his first ASG.  Meanwhile Scherzer is the obvious pick, though i’m not sure he gets the start this year.  Scherzer leads the NL in bWAR … but Hyun-Jin Ryu is having an amazing season and could get the nod (indeed, he has).  Soto’s numbers are solid, as good as his rookie campaign, but he started slow and the story-line surrounding the Nats this season has overshadowed his production.  Strasburg actually has more bWAR than Rendon … but his numbers are solid, not all-star good.  Kendrick would never have gotten a nod, but he should be a shoe-in for comeback player of the year for the season he’s having.  Others of note: Sean Doolittle was amazing for most of the first half but has tired and his numbers slipped.  Patrick Corbin‘s debut season has been solid, not flashy, and he has the same issues as Strasburg had.

Post publishing update: neither of our two representatives are actually going to Cleveland.  Rendon staying home to rehab a nagging quad injury, and Scherzer is traveling but will not pitch b/c he threw a start just ahead of the game.  Both players were replaced by non-Nats … which was a shame b/c a like-for-like with Strasburg for Scherzer seemed like the right thing to do.

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2018

• Nationals All-Star representatives: Bryce Harper*, Max Scherzer*, Sean Doolittle
• Possible Snubs: Juan Soto, Trea Turner, Anthony Rendon
• Narrative: For the home-town All Star Game, Harper gets the starting nod from the fans despite his abhorrent season at the plate (his slash line on 7/8/18: .219/.371/.475).  However, by making the ASG, Harper now keeps his promise to participate in the Home Run Derby one last time before hitting free agency.   There’s no real “snubs” on this Nationals team; The #2 player on the team in terms of seasonal bWAR is Trea Turner but he’s not exactly having a head-turning season.  He was named to the “last 5 ballot” but was a huge long-shot to make it (update; he didn’t: the very deserving Jesus Aguilar did).  Anthony Rendon is having his typical under-rated season and got no love from the voters over the more famous Nolan Arenado (a common refrain when it comes to Gold Gloves/Silver Sluggers too).  None of our starters besides Scherzer are really deserving; Stephen Strasburg was having a decent but not spectacular season but missed a month and is on the D/L.  Nor is any of the bullpen past Doolittle.  Its an odd-season where a team-wide malaise is contributing to the team hovering at .500 at the All Star Break.  Only Juan Soto really is deserving … but he was never going to make the ASG (not when recent more spectacular rookies failed to make it) and thanks to his missing all of April and most of May he wasn’t on any ballots and may struggle to win the RoY over guys who have played longer this season.  Scherzer is named to the team on 7/8/18 was named the  NL starter for the 2nd year running on 7/16/18.

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2017

• Nationals All-Star representatives: Bryce Harper*, Daniel Murphy*, Ryan Zimmerman*, Max Scherzer*, Stephen Strasburg
• Snubs: Anthony Rendon, Gio Gonzalez
• Narrative: For the second  year in a row, the Nats are well and properly represented in the All Star Game.  We have three starters named in the field, including Zimmerman who beats out a slew of 1B sluggers in the NL to not only make the team but get his first start.  Its also likely i’ll be editing this post and adding in Scherzer as an additional starter; he is the obvious choice to start the game for the NL given his first half production (7/10/17 update: yes indeed we did).  Rendon is having a very quiet solid season and is in the “last 5” popular vote, but he seems unlikely to win given that last year’s MVP Kris Bryant is also in the voting (Update: neither guy got in).  Gonzalez misses out despite having a better first half than Strasburg by nearly any statistic; he’s having a career year but seems unlikely to get rewarded with his 3rd ASG appearance.  There’s no other real snub from our 2017 team; certainly there’s nobody in the bullpen meriting a spot, and Trea Turner‘s torrid 2016 2nd half did not translate into the 2017 season (not to mention, he’s had two separate D/L trips).  Once again i’m slightly perturbed that Harper continues to refuse to participate in the HR derby; why the reticence?  Its a fun event that is quickly becoming better than the actual game itself and practically every other slugger is participating.  Is he afraid to lose?  On a larger scale, i’m really happy to see (finally) that deserving rookies are named: Aaron Judge and Cody Bellinger are both named and are both on the inside track for ROY awards; too many times in the past we see deserving rookies unnamed.  On July 10th, the fourth Nat starter was named: Scherzer got the starting pitcher nod, a first for the Nats.  August Update: Rendon’s omission is looking even more ridiculous; he’s top 5 in the league in bWAR.

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2016

• Nationals All-Star representatives: Bryce Harper*, Stephen Strasburg, Daniel Murphy, Wilson Ramos, Max Scherzer (named as replacement for Strasburg on 7/8/16),
• Possible Snubs: Danny Espinosa, Tanner Roark
• Narrative: The four obvious candidates from the Nats this year were all initially correctly selected, though voting shenanigans out of Chicago elected Ben Zobrist over Daniel Murphy by a scant 500 votes.   I thought perhaps Strasburg would have a chance to start the game, given his 12-0 record, but it seems the team pre-empted any such thought when Scherzer’s naming occurred.  For the first time writing this post, I can’t really name any “snubs” and the team has (finally?) earned the proper respect it deserves in terms of naming its players properly.  Espinosa had a week for the ages just prior to the end of voting but really stood little chance of selection in the grand scheme of things.  He’s not really a “snub” but is worthy of mention based on his resurgent year.  At the break, Espinosa ranked 3rd in NL fWAR but 7th or 8th in bWAR thanks to differing defensive value metrics, so maybe/maybe not on him being a “snub.”  As pointed out in the comments, even I missed the sneaky good season Roark is having; he’s 12th in the NL in bWAR at the break and 9th in fWAR but was left off in favor of any number of starters that stand below him in value rankings.  Unfortunately for fans (and for Harper’s “Make Baseball Fun again” campaign, he opted to skip the Home Run Derby again.  I guess its kind of like the NBA superstars skipping the dunk contest; the Union should really do a better job of helping out in this regard.  The new format is fantastic and makes the event watchable again; is it ego keeping him from getting beat by someone like Giancarlo Stanton?

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2015

• Nationals All-Star representatives: Bryce Harper*, Max Scherzer
• Possible Snubs: Yunel Escobar, Drew Storen
• Narrative: Harper not only made it in as a starter for the 2nd time, he led the NL in votes, setting a MLB record for total votes received.  This is no surprise; Harper’s easily in the MVP lead for the NL thanks to his amazing first half (his split at the half-way point of the season: .347/.474/.722 with 25 homers and an astounding 225 OPS+).  I guess he won’t be earning the “Most overrated player” award next year.  That Harper is electing to skip the Home run derby in a disappointment; his father is nursing an arm injury can cannot throw to him in the event.  In a weird year for the Nats, the only other regular worth mentioning is newly acquired Escobar, who is hitting above .300 and filling in ably at multiple positions that, prior to this year, he had never played.  Storen is having another excellent regular season … but at a time when mandatory members from each team often leads to other closers being selected (there are 5 NL closers and 7 AL relievers), the odds of him making the All-Star team were always going to be slim.  Scherzer deservedly makes the team and probably would have been the NL starter; he’s got sub 2.00 ERA and FIP and leads all NL pitchers in WAR at the mid-way point of the season.  But his turn came up in the final game of the first half, making him ineligible for the game and forcing his replacement on the roster.

As a side note, the 2015 All-Star game will go down as the “Ballot-Gate” game thanks to MLB’s short-sighted plan to allow 30+ online ballots per email address.  This led to severe “ballot stuffing” by the Kansas City Royals fans, led to MLB  having to eliminate 60 million+ fraudulent ballots, but still led to several Royals being elected starters over more deserving candidates.

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2014

• Nationals All-Star representative: Jordan Zimmermann (Update post-publishing: Zimmermann strained a bicep, and had to withdraw from the ASG.  For a bit it looked like the Nats wouldn’t even have a representative, until Tyler Clippard was named on 7/13/14).
• Possible Snubs: Adam LaRoche, Anthony Rendon, Rafael Soriano, Drew Storen
• Narrative: Zimmermann’s been the best SP on the best pitching staff in the majors this year, and thus earns his spot.  I find it somewhat odd that a first place team (or near to it) gets just one representative on the team (as discussed above).  Rendon tried to make the team via the “last man in” voting, but historically Nationals have not fared well in this competition (especially when better known players from large markets are in the competition, aka Anthony Rizzo from the Chicago Cubs), and indeed Rendon finished 4th in the last-man voting.  LaRoche is having a very good season, almost single handedly carrying the Nats offense while major parts were out injured, but he’s never going to beat out the slew of great NL first basemen (Joey Votto couldn’t even get into this game).  Soriano has quietly put together one of the best seasons of any closer in the game; at the time of this writing he has a 1.03 ERA and a .829 whip; those are Dennis Eckersley numbers.  But, the farce that is the all-star game selection criteria (having to select one player from each team) means that teams need a representative, and deserving guys like Soriano get squeezed.  Then, Soriano indignantly said he wouldn’t even go if named as a replacement … likely leading to Clippard’s replacement selection.  The same goes for non-closer Storen, who sports a sub 2.00 ERA on the year.  Advanced stats columnists (Keith Law) also think that Stephen Strasburg is a snub but I’m not entirely sure: he may lead the NL in K’s right now and have far better advanced numbers than “traditional,” but its hard to make an argument that a guy with a 7-6 record and a 3.50+ ERA is all-star worthy.

2013

• Nationals All-Star representatives: Bryce Harper*, Jordan Zimmermann
• Snubs: Stephen Strasburg, Ian Desmond
• Narrative: Harper comes in 3rd in the NL outfielder voting, ahead of some big-time names, to become only the second Nationals position player elected as an All-Star starter.  He was 4th in the final pre-selection vote, so a big last minute push got him the starter spot.   Harper also becomes the first National to participate in the Home Run Derby.   Zimmermann was 12-3 heading into the game and was on mid-season Cy Young short lists in July in a breakout season.  Strasburg’s advanced stats are all better than Zimmermann’s, but his W/L record (4-6 as the ASG) means he’s not an all-star.  It also probably doesn’t help that he missed a few weeks.  Desmond loses out to Troy Tulowitzki, Everth Cabrera and Jean Segura.  Tulowitzki was having a very solid year and was a deserving elected starter, while Cabrera and Segura are both having breakout seasons.  Desmond was on the “Final vote” roster, but my vote (and most others’ I’m guessing) would be for Yasiel Puig there ([Editor Update: Desmond and Puig lost out to Freddie Freeman: I still wished that Puig finds a way onto the roster but ultimately he did not and I believe the ASG was diminished because of it).   Gio Gonzalez, Ryan Zimmerman, and Rafael Soriano are all having solid but unspectacular years and miss out behind those having great seasons.

2012

• Nationals All-Star representatives: Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez, Ian Desmond, Bryce Harper
• Possible Snubs: Adam LaRoche, Craig Stammen
• Narrative: The two SPs Strasburg and Gonzalez were the obvious candidates, and my personal prediction was that they’d be the only two candidates selected.  Gonzalez’ first half was a prelude to his 21-win, 3rd place Cy Young season.  The inclusion of Desmond is a surprise, but also a testament to how far he’s come as a player in 2012.  Harper was a last-minute injury replacement, but had earned his spot by virtue of his fast start as one of the youngest players in the league.  Of the “snubs,” LaRoche has had a fantastic come back season in 2012 but fared little shot against better, more well-known NL first basemen.  Stammen was our best bullpen arm, but like LaRoche fared little chance of getting selected during a year when the Nats had two deserving pitchers selected.

2011

• Nationals All-Star representatives: Tyler Clippard
• Possible Snubs: Danny Espinosa, Michael Morse, Drew Storen, Jordan Zimmermann
• Narrative: While Clippard was (arguably) the Nats best and most important reliever, I think Zimmermann was a more rightful choice.  He was 10th in the league in ERA at the time of the selections and has put in a series of dominant performances.  Meanwhile Espinosa was on pace for a 28-homer season and almost a certain Rookie-of-the-Year award (though a precipitous fall-off in the 2nd half cost him any realistic shot at the ROY), and perhaps both players are just too young to be known around the league.  Lastly Morse is certainly known and he merited a spot in the “last man in” vote sponsored by MLB (though he fared little chance against popular players in this last-man-in voting).

2010

• Nationals All-Star representatives: Matt Capps
  
• Possible Snubs: Adam Dunn, Josh Willingham, Ryan Zimmerman, Stephen Strasburg
• Narrative: Capps was clearly deserving, having a breakout season as a closer after his off-season non-tender from the Pirates.  The 3-4-5 hitters Zimmerman-Dunn-Willingham all had dominant offensive seasons as the team improved markedly from its 103-loss season.  But perhaps the surprise non-inclusion was Strasburg, who despite only having a few starts as of the all-star break was already the talk of baseball.  I think MLB missed a great PR opportunity to name him to the team to give him the exposure that the rest of the national media expected.  But in the end, Capps was a deserving candidate and I can’t argue that our hitters did anything special enough to merit inclusion.

2009

• Nationals All-Star representatives: Ryan Zimmerman
• Possible Snubs: Adam Dunn
• Narrative: The addition of Dunn and Willingham to the lineup gave Zimmerman the protection he never had, and he produced with his career-best season.  His first and deserved all-star appearance en-route to a 33 homer season.  Dunn continued his monster homer totals with little all-star recognition.

2008

• Nationals All-Star representatives: Cristian Guzman
  
• Possible Snubs: Jon Rauch
• Narrative: The first of two “hitting rock-bottom” seasons for the team; no one really merited selection.  Zimmerman was coming off of hamate-bone surgery in November 2007 and the team was more or less awful across the board.  Rauch performed ably after Cordero went down with season-ending (and basically career-ending) shoulder surgery.   Guzman’s selection a great example of why one-per-team rules don’t make any sense.  Guzman ended up playing far longer than he deserved in the game itself by virtue of the 15-inning affair.

2007

• Nationals All-Star representatives: Dmitri Young
• Possible Snubs: Ryan Zimmerman, Shawn Hill (though I wouldn’t argue for either)
• Narrative: Young gets a deserved all-star appearance en route to comeback player of the year.  Zimmerman played a full season but didn’t dominate.  Our 2007 staff gave starts to 13 different players, most of whom were out of the league within the next year or two.  Not a good team.

2006

• Nationals All-Star representatives: Alfonso Soriano*
• Possible Snubs: Nick Johnson, Ryan Zimmerman, Chad Cordero
• Narrative: Soriano made the team as an elected starter, the first time the Nats have had such an honor.  Our pitching staff took massive steps backwards and no starter came even close to meriting a spot.  Cordero was good but not lights out as he had been in 2005.  Soriano’s 40-40 season is a poster child for “contract year” production and he has failed to come close to such production since.  The team was poor and getting worse.  Johnson had a career year but got overshadowed by bigger, better first basemen in the league (a recurring theme for our first basemen over the years).

2005

• Nationals All-Star representatives: Livan Hernandez, Chad Cordero
• Possible Snubs: Nick Johnson, John Patterson.
• Narrative: The Nats went into the All Star break surprisingly in first place, having run to a 50-31 record by the halfway point.  Should a first place team have gotten more than just two representatives?  Perhaps.  But the team was filled with non-stars and played far over its head to go 50-31 (as evidenced by the reverse 31-50 record the rest of the way).