Nationals Arm Race

We just posted a quick reaction to the 1-1 pick Eli Willits. Here’s a run through the first 10 picks, for all of Day 1 and Day 2 of the draft, showing where the various prospect ranking shops ranked our picks, with some thoughts and bonus projections.

Here’s the two main draft tracker resources you need and that I’m updating this week in as close to real-time as I can given my current employment status :-):

• Nationals Draft Tracker: this is the long-running Google XLS with all our picks dating to 2005. There’s two tabs here: the main page with every pick, then a deeper-dive 2025 Draft pick with slot bonus breakdowns and other information on each pick.
• MLB’s Draft Tracker, the best of various options of Draft Trackers out there.

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Here’s links to major Prospect Rankings shops that I’ll reference below when assessing the “value” of the pick.

• Baseball America top 500 (paywall)
• The Athletic/Keith Law top 100 Draft board, (paywall)
• MLBpipeline expanded top 250 Draft Board
• Fangraphs FV-based Draft Board
• ESPN Top 250 Draft Prospects for 2025
• Prospects1500 Top 250 Draft board released 7/7/25
• Baseball Prospectus MLB Draft Big Board for 2025 posted 7/3/25 (paywall)
• ProspectsLive Final Top 400 Draft board released 7/12/25 (paywall past top 10)

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• 1st Round, 1st Overall: Eli Willits, Prep SS from Fort Cobb-Broxton HS in Oklahoma.

Ranks by major shops: BA=3, Law=8, MLB=5, Fangraphs=5, Prospects1500=6, ESPN=3

As already discussed, this was a shock pick to most pundits and the industry, who had the Nats taking either Anderson or Holliday for the most part. Willits is still a top 5 player on nearly every draft board (Keith Law being the low-man on him, citing lack of power). A lot of the shops talk about his floor being easy to attain, so there’s that. For me, I think he’s a #5 overall pick projection who made it to 1-1 probably by cutting a deal, so we’ll see how much savings the team got (probably in the $3M range) and how they can spread it out amongst the rest of the draft. Committed to Oklahoma, where his dad is on staff, but he’ll never get there.

• 2nd round #49 overall: Ethan Petry, a 4th year College Jr 1B/OF from U of South Carolina

Ranks by major shops: BA=36, Law=68, MLB=59, Fangraphs=104, Prospects1500=44, ESPN=75

Petry pretty clearly is a slugger. He’s got 60s and 65s for his power grade amongst the various shops, and is probably a LF/1B/DH type in pro ball. He has posted solid power numbers throughout his career, with pretty impressive 110mph+ EVs. One scouting report even said he could have been in the mix for 1-1 if he was better defensively (which seems like a stretch) An interesting pick here, and one that (like the Willits pick) seems to be more analytics driven (his eye popping EV). Is this an over- or under-slot pick? Is he getting $1.98m here? I’ll bet he signs for a bit under-slot.

• 3rd round #80 overall: Landon Harmon, RHP prep from East Union Attendance Center HS (MS)

Ranks by major shops: BA=65, Law=95, MLB=48, Fangraphs=31, Prospects1500=65, ESPN=76

Mississippi State commit who is tall (6-5) with a huge fastball (has hit 100) but mechanical concerns (well at least if you believe Keith Law, who thinks everyone has mechanical issues). Yes, he’s a prep right hander in an organization that hasn’t done a great job producing them over the last decade, but has been a bit better as of late with Sykora and Clemmey and even Cuevas, who was a prep 21st rounder and who still is active). We’ll see. this seems like a slightly over-slot deal here, and if you pay him like an early 2nd rounder (i.e. throw in another $1M on top of his slot $1m) he could sign. Should be interesting to see what he signs for. Committed to Mississippi State.

• 4th round #111 overall: Miguel Sime Jr, RHP prep from Poly Prep Country Day School (NY)

Ranks by major shops: BA=88, Law=nr, MLB=86, Fangraphs=120/HM, Prospects1500=nr, ESPN=nr

Four picks into the new regime and we already have more prep kids drafted than the last 5 drafts combined. Ok, no that’s not quite true… but its close. Sime is from a northern school but has apparently been at every showcase held for the last two years. MLB gives him a 70 grade on his fastball, no small feat. He was at the NHSI that I covered earlier this year, and per BA’s scouting report “held upper-90s velocity for more than 100 pitches” against the Corona HS team that had both Carlson and Hernandez. Wow. This is a big guy: 6’3″ 235 already, that’s like linebacker sized. Hitting 99, sitting 95-96. I’m guessing it takes another extra $750 to get him to sign. Committed to LSU, not that that matters anymore. I like him on paper for sure.

• 5th Round #142 overall Coy James, a prep SS from Davie HS (NC)

Ranks by major shops: BA=49, Law=nr, MLB=94, Fangraphs=66, Prospects1500=59, ESPN=69

He’s a 6’0″ shortstop who most of the scouts list as one of the best pure hitters in the class. he was an U18 starter as an underclassman, and per reports has “explosive power” despite being a SS. James went into the 2025 prospect season as a slam dunk top 10 pick, projected as high as #10 by BA’s ranks at the time. So what happened? Scouting reports say he gained weight, which added power but caused him to lose athleticism. It sounds to me like someone in the Nats org fell in love with him at a combine somewhere and figures they can get him in shape. He projects like a 20-homer slugging 2B in the pros, and apparently has a “strong commitment” to ole Miss. I’ll bet he nabs near 1st round money ($2.5M or more) and this could be where a lot of our savings goes.

• 6th round: #171 overall: Boston Smith, Col Sr. C/OF from Wright State
• 7th round: #201 overall: Julian Tonghini, Col Sr RHP from Arizona
• 8th round: #231 overall: Riley Maddox, Col Sr RHP from Ole Miss
• 9th round: #261 overall: Wyatt Henseler, Col Sr 2B/3B from Texas A&M
• 10th round: #291 overall: Hunter Hines, Col Sr 1B from Mississippi State.

Ranks by major shops: none

So, it’s now pretty clear that this is going to be a 5-man draft. With all due respect to these guys, they are drafted in these spots for one reason: Bonus $$ savings. Every one of these guys is a 4th or 5th year senior with no leverage, and they all probably agreed to sign for $10k (or less), which nets a collective $1.3m or so for the team to throw at other players. There’s no real scouting reports available on any of them.

Of course, this team has had some decent results out of these senior sign/throw away picks lately. Jackson Ross signed for just $2k last year and has already earned a promotion to High-A. Glasser is in AA now as a $10k signing in 2023. Murphy Sthehy the same; in AA as a $10k signing in 2022. Our backup catcher in AAA is Brad Lindsly; he signed for just $20k in the Covid year and is still going. So, these players do matter and can have an impact.

That being said, here’s a quick look at each of them, primarily looking at stats from their colleges and bio:

• Boston Smith at Wright State was a monster at the plate this year, with a 1.274 OPS slashing .332/.500/.774 with 26 homers. He hit three homers in his first three games at the CWS Vanderbilt regional, helping Wright State to eliminate the #1 seed and certainly making an impression.
• Julian Tonghini at Arizona was a back of the bullpen type; 22 games, 25 IP. Not great numbers from an ERA or WHIP perspective but struck out 44 guys in 25IP. I’m sure that’s what the team is looking at; decent value reliever who is old enough to get through the lower minors fast and see if he’s got what it takes to stick.
• Riley Maddox was in Ole Miss’ rotation all year and struggled, 5.56 ERA, 1.45 whip. 69/30 K/BB in 69 IP. He regressed a bit from his Jr. season, where he also made every start.
• Wyatt Henseler at Texas A&M: .319/.423/.562 for the season. He was a grad student at TAMU, having done four years at UPenn. He was a 2nd team pre-season All American at D1baseball.com, and certainly hit like it. If he put these numbers up as a Coll Jr he’d be a 4th or 5th rounder; instead he’s a no-leverage 9th rounder for us. He played both 2B and 3B in college and probably can do the same in for us. I’ll bet he can hit in pro ball and I like this pick.
• Hunter Hines from Mississippi State slashed .280/.380/.578 as their primary 1B all year. Big guy, 6’3″ 210, lefty swinger. He was first team all-SEC as a sophomore, starting to get some traction, but lost some of that traction in the last two years. Still, he took over the all-time lead in homers late in the 2025 season at the program, besting the record formerly held by Rafael Palmeiro. He seems like a pure masher who is destined for 1B/DH levels, but that’s worth a gamble for sure.

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So, that being said, Here’s what I think the team does with its bonus dollars.

• Willits: slot $11M. I bet he signs for a bit more than the $8.1M that the 5th overall slot was guaranteed for (his projection in most mocks): call it $8.5M, so $2.5M savings.
• Picks 6-10: total bonus pool: $1.33M, $10k each so $50k less, plus the 5% cushion leads to $1.3M in savings.
• Petry: slot $1.98M, I’ll bet he signs for a bit less: call it $1.75M for $250k of savings.

So that would give the team right around $4M to work with before the 5% cushion.

• Harmon: slot of $1M, add another $1.5M = $2.5M bonus, or around the end of the 1st comp round.
• Sime: slot of $687k, add another $1M = $1.6M bonus, or around mid 2nd round
• James: slot of $508k, add $1.5M = $2M bonus, or around the beginning of 2nd round.

Something like this.

I’ll post the 11th->20th round picks in another post.

Though I was traveling all weekend (bad timing to try to cover a Sunday evening event properly), I was able to tape and quickly watch the first 15 minutes or so of the 2025 draft to catch the top picks.

To say that the mock drafters were wrong all spring would be a huge understatement, starting at the top.

The Nats come out of nowhere to pick Eli Willits out of an Oklahoma HS at 1-1. Nobody all spring had Willits on the Nats’ radar, and I (and the MLB TV pundits) were in shock.

My quick thoughts: this really sends a weird message from the team. They just fired their long-standing GM presumably because they were disappointed in the direction of the team … then instead of drafting a polished college guy who might be able to contribute with the current set of stars we have, we draft the youngest ever player to go 1-1 in Willits, who reclassified from the 2026 class and who likely does appear in the majors for half a decade. Willits certainly was a highly ranked player, and ranked a lot higher on some teams’ draft boards simply because of his age. He’s 6′ 1″ 180 pure SS switch hitter whose father was a dirt-balling utility guy in the majors for a few years and who looked like a cut-rate Pete Rose at the plate.

Can’t say I like this pick, at all. I think Anderson is closer to a MLB rotation, I think Doyle could be in a bullpen role in the majors right now, and I think Holliday projects to be a far better player. I can only assume that they got a massive deal on the bonus, which will allow them to “stock up” on more prep kids in the next two days.

Does this pick (and its cascading effects on the rest of the draft) represent a monumental shift in the front office’s thinking now that Rizzo is gone? Maybe. But it certainly doesn’t portend well to the fanbase who have seen 5 straight losing seasons to pick a 17 yr old. Yes, I get it, you don’t draft for “need.” But you also don’t ignore context of where you are as a franchise and where you’re going. To me, this pick sends the following message: “We don’t think we’ve got it, even with Gore and Wood and Abrams and Crews and House, so we’re getting set for the future.” Especially if the pick was made to save dollars for more prep kids today and tomorrow.

We seem to have saved the weirdest list for last. While all other pundits release their “pre-season” prospect lists before the actual season starts, Fangraphs and Eric Longenhagen waited until nearly the All Star break to release their list, the 29th of the 30 lists to get published (only Houston remains).

So, what does this list represent? Does it represent the state of our prospects before the season started and before we saw leaps forward from the likes of Lord, or Henry, or Sykora? Or, does it represent where these players sat in terms of reputation before a pitch was thrown? Honestly, its hard to gauge, based on this list, since on the one hand it still has Crews at #1, but on the other it clearly takes into account 2025 performance in some cases already (for example, having Dickerson at #6 when he ranked him #27 at the same time last year or ranking Henry in the top 10).

So, I’m not sure how to critique this list honestly.

Here’s the top 39:

Rank	Last Name	First Name	Position
1	Dylan	Crews	OF (CF)
2	Travis	Sykora	RHP (Starter)
3	Jarlin	Susana	RHP (Starter)
4	Brady	House	SS/3B
5	Daylen	Lile	OF (CF)
6	Luke	Dickerson	SS/CF
7	Seaver	King	SS
8	Cade	Cavalli	RHP (Starter)
9	Jake	Bennett	LHP (Starter)
10	Cole	Henry	RHP (Starter)
11	Caleb	Lomavita	C
12	Alex	Clemmey	LHP (Starter)
13	Daniel	Hernandez	C
14	Yoel	Tejada Jr.	RHP (Starter)
15	Victor	Hurtado	OF
16	Cristian	Vaquero	OF (CF)
17	Robert	Hassell III	OF (CF)
18	Kevin	Bazzell	C/3B
19	Andry	Lara	RHP (Starter)
20	Tyler	Stuart	RHP (Starter)
21	Jackson	Kent	LHP (Starter)
22	Dashyll	Tejeda	OF (CF)
23	Marconi	German	SS
24	Zach	Brzykcy	RHP (Reliever)
25	Orlando	Ribalta	RHP (reliever)
26	Jackson	Rutledge	RHP (Starter)
27	Kevin	Made	SS
28	Sir Jamison	Jones	CA
29	Angel	Feliz	3B/SS
30	Brayan	Cortesia	SS
31	Brad	Lord	RHP (Starter)
32	Darren	Baker	2B
33	Marquis	Grissom	RHP (Reliever)
34	Yohandy	Morales	3B
35	Jorgelys	Mota	SS
36	Cornelio	Riley	RHP (Starter)
37	Erick	Mejia	RHP
38	Jose	Feliz	RHP (Starter)
39	Carlos	Tavares	OF

Here’s some thoughts.

• Crews still at 1-1, despite exhausting any semblance of rookie eligibility about a week into the 2025 season.
• 2-3-4 as expected. Susana not dinged for the “TJ-sounding” injury he seems to have, which would probably impact his lofty ranking otherwise and, based on the wholesale dumping of other prospects who got hurt, doesn’t seem to make any sense.
• Dickerson at #6, as he should now and going forward. Which .. ok did they take into account his hot start or was this pre-season ranking? Last year, Dickerson was #27 on this list. So there’s your answer.
• Cole Henry all the way up to #10. Clearly this takes into account his sudden ability to get MLB batters out in the bullpen. Last year: not ranked, meaning he was in the upper 30s at best.
• Clemmey is “only” at #12, which I find kind of ridiculous. I mean, what more do you want the kid to do? He literally just turned 20, has put up two straight months of sub 2.00 ERA, and seems likely to get promoted to AA before the season is out. And he’s behind a pitcher in Bennett who’s four years older and who can’t seem to throw more than 3 innings at a time right now?
• Daniel Hernandez at #13 is super bullish. And now is as good of a time as any to point out the “flaws” in the Fangraphs FV system and how it ranks prospects. Longenhagen’s system basically values ceiling with a significant downgrading of the floor. So, you see a guy like Hernandez, who just turned 17 and who is currently slashing .208/.269/.264 as a catcher in the DSL (he’s caught about half the games, DH’d the other half) ranked nearly in the top 10 but players like Andrew Alvarez and Andrew Pinckney, who are in AAA right now producing, are not even in his top 39. Hernandez at #13 is asinine. Putting him inside the top 20 is nearly as dumb. I had him #37 before the season started, and he’s likely falling 20-30 spots the next time I do the ranks.
• Vaquero at #16. What exactly has this guy done to have him ranked that high at this point in his career, besides get a $4.9M bonus?
• Hassell dumped down to #17 in a season where he forced a promotion to the majors and where he’s got a 1.000 OPS in AAA … one spot ahead of Bazzell at #18, who’s hitting like .150 in A-ball. Make it make sense.
• A first time mention for one German Marconi. A 2025 IFA signing for a reasonable $400k in January, he’s got a pretty impressive slash line right now in DSL: .269/.491/.513 for an OPS north of 1.000. He’s got 24 walks and 17 strikeouts; that’s unheard of. This is the first time I’ve seen him on any prospect lists, and clearly he’s one to watch.
• Longenhagen’s system also overrates relievers. Except … when it doesn’t. Ok quick quiz: which reliever who’s made it to the major leagues this year do you think is higher rated? Ribalta, Brzycky, Rutledge, or Lord? If you guessed Lord, who has a 111 ERA+ in 33 appearances … you’d be wrong! Lord is ranked 4th out of these four. I guess in his system actual performance on the field doesn’t actually count.
• Made comes in at #27, which was about right for pre-season, but which may be low now given his offensive explosion so far this year.
• Ok, so Hernandez is ranked #13 right? And he’s hitting at the Mendoza line. Meanwhile, Brayan Cortesia, who got 5x the bonus dollars in January at $1.9M … is currently slashing .477/.558/.523 in the DSL … and he’s ranked 30th while Hernandez is 13th?? Really?
• Morales at #34. Wow. I mean, just wow. Of course, Fangraphs doesn’t rate Morales at all; last year they had him at #19. I mean, what’s the guy gotta do? Get to AAA at age 23 despite injuries and then hold your own there? That’s gotta be worth something right?
• Erick Frigging Mejia at #37. OK this is just trolling us right?

OK, so there’s a lot of problems in this list. But here’s some of the names not even in the top 40:

• Cayden Wallace, mostly a top 10 player on other lists; outside the top 40? Only if you think this season has completely erased all his past seasons and scouting reports.
• Andrew Pinckney, as noted; nowhere to be seen despite being in AAA
• Andrew Alvarez, because being a serviceable AAA starter is meaningless.
• Elijah Green; ok well I can understand this based on his performance … but he’s still all tooled up right?
• No Armando Cruz? Lots of love for big bonus low-performers like Hurtado and Vaquero but not Cruz? Makes no sense.

Phew. It took them until July to release this list. Maybe they should just go with what they had in March; couldn’t be much worse.

Here’s the three month check-in with all our top 20 (and some) prospects. All seasonal stats as of 7/1/25, though the whole point of this article is to see how these players are doing in the last month. I’m a little late posting this … since we’ve had a ton of “news” happen, so I havn’t updated this post for anything that’s happened in the last nine days (like, for example, Cavalli getting shelled last night).

#1. Dylan Crews OF (CF): Missed all of May with oblique issue. Was not hitting well before hand. Temperature: on ice.

#2 Travis Sykora RHP (Starter): Just promoted to AA, his 2nd promotion in as many months. He’s our #1 prospect on all lists right now and it will be super interesting to see how he fares in AA. Temperature: red hot.

#3 Brady House SS/3B: Promoted to MLB, has basically been the starter at 3B. Slashed just .231/.268/.288 for the month of June. Not great. Not much power shown so far. Paul deJong just came off the DL (though his slash line is even worse) so I wonder what the team will do here. Temperature: Hot for making majors, not hot for his MLB performance so far.

#4 Jarlin Susana RHP (Starter). Zero news on his grade 1 UCL sprain; zero June activity.. Temperature: on ice.

# 5 Seaver King SS. took a big step back in June: .218/.259/.307. Is it possible he’s just too high in his first pro season? Maybe they should have left him in Wilmington (even if its an awful hitter’s park). Temperature: getting colder.

# 6 Yohandy Morales 1B/3B: has not taken to AAA pitching so far, slashing just .207/.289.331 in Rochester so far. Temperature: Warm for getting to AA at age 23, code so far in the league.

#7 Cayden Wallace 2B/3B: was awful in June: .169/.218/.211 for the month. Weren’t there some who thought this was a better 3B prospect than House this past off-season? Phew. Temperature: ice cold.

# 8 Cade Cavalli RHP (Starter): Five starts in AAA after finally returning from nearly 2 years out for TJ, and he’s not really impressing. Interestingly though Fangraphs just did a piece on him. He talks a ton about changes he’s making to his approach, introduction of new pitches, working on a 2-seamer, mixing up speeds, etc. I think his up and down results in AAA so far can be explained a bit, and I’m a bit less worried than others. If you’re in the anti-Cavalli camp right now, give this article a read and see if it changes your mind. Temperature: Warming up.

#9 Alex Clemmey LHP (Starter): His June was just as good as his May; 1.45 ERA, .197 BAA against. He’s already due for another promotion, and I wonder if he’s starting to put his name into consideration for some top-100 lists as a 19yr old dominating in High-A. Temperature: getting hot.

# 10 Robert Hassell III OF (CF): Got 21 games in the Majors when we had some OF issues, but struggled (.218/.228/269) and is now back in AAA. He continues to be a healthy hitter in AAA (OPS north of 1.000 in June), and hopefully gets another shot at the Majors soon. Temperature: hot for getting there, cold in MLB.

#11 Caleb Lomavita C: Solid June: .295/.371/.346. Love the OBP, wish for more power. He’s only 5′ 10″ so maybe a gap contact hitter is his ceiling. Temperature: Staying Warm.

# 12 Luke Dickerson SS/CF: It was great to see Dickerson quickly hit his way out of the complex league, but his time in Low-A so far has been a struggle. He’s slashing just .223/.327/.338 so far in F’burg. So, pump the brakes a bit. Also, remember that if he were playing by the D1 rules, he’d be taking his freshman summer in some random wood-bat league near his home in Jersey. Temperature: luke warm.

# 13 Andry Lara RHP (Starter): did a bunch of rehab starts in A-ball, then was optioned to AA instead of AAA (odd for a 40-man roster who pretty much proved he had solved AA last year) and promptly got shelled in his first game back. He’s now got a 10 ERA in AAA this year and a 20 ERA in AA. Is he still hurt? Temperature: very cold.

#14 Tyler Stuart RHP (Starter): his first month back in AA post injury did not go well: 5 games, 6 ERA, and now he’s back on the DL as of this writing. Harrisburg now has nearly an entire rotation on its DL (Susana, Stuart, Knowles, Atencio). Temperature: chilly.

#15 Daylen Lile OF (CF): his slash line in the majors so far (.221/.274/.338) hasn’t been great, but he’s the one they’ve kept up for now instead of the likes of Hassell, Yepez, Chapparo, Tena, etc. He’s getting playing time too, often at the expense of Young or Call oddly. Temperature: hot for getting there, cool in MLB

#16 Kevin Bazzell C/3B: continues to disappoint. .213/.367/.234 in June. He’s got zero power and isn’t hitting well enough to maintain his spot. Temperature: ice cold.

#17 Jake Bennett LHP (Starter): Bennett continues to be brought back slowly, doing just 3IP in each of his starts. So far he’s been nearly unhittable and efficient in these starts. Hoping to see him stretch out and get to AA by year’s end. Temperature: getting warmer.

#18 Brad Lord RHP (Starter/Reliever): fun fact: as of this writing Lord is 4th on the damn team in bWAR for the season. 3.28 ERA in 30 appearances/57 IP as of this writing. 18th round draft pick. What a win for the player dev and for the draft team. Temperature: Red Hot all around.

#19 Angel Feliz 3B/SS: cooled from his hot start, hitting just .238 in May. Still a win for getting to FCL after just one year in DSL. Temperature: cooled off

#20 Andrew Pinckney OF (Corner): struggling in AAA: .203/.329/.344 for June. Still getting starts in AAA, which is something positive for the 24yr old, but not doing much with it so far. Temperature: cold

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Notables #20 and above by the Level they mostly played in in June 2025.

In MLB:

• #35 Jackson Rutledge gave up 10 runs in 10 June MLB innings; that’s not going to cut it.
• #36 Cole Henry continues to hold his own in the MLB pen; his FIP flatters his ERA but he’s got a positive bWAR and that’s awesome for someone I was afraid was going to be out of baseball.

in AAA:

• #32 Darren Baker had a solid June in AAA: .317/.427/.400. If we manage to flip any of our MLB utility infielders Baker should get another shot.
• #38 Drew Millas hit well in AAA in June .286/.357/.469, which helped him get the call-up to the majors. This positive mention of Millas won’t
• Both our 1B/DH “prospects” Yepez and Chapparo are now back in AAA; #31 Chapparo probably losing out in a numbers game for now, but Yepez was DFA’d and outrighted in what probably is a dagger for his time with Washington.
• #41 Marquis Grissom Jr bounced back after a tough month after getting promoted; he’s in the Futures Game but probably not on merit.

In AA:

• #47 Phillip Glasser SS bounced back after a great April and an awful May with this June slash line: .329/.426/.482. Why hasn’t he moved up? Nowhere to play him: he’s played basically 2B and LF this year: AAA has too many 2B already (Baker, Lipscomb, Arruda) and too many guys who are limited to a corner OF/DH spot (Baker, Schnell, Yepez/Chapparo).
• #25 Kevin Made: wow; he’s alive. And crushing AA pitching: .352/.410/.444 in June. Phew. Not bad for a glove-first prospect. Why not move him up? Because Nasim Nunez is clogging the AAA SS position with his Mendoza line batting average. I dunno; maybe its time to cut bait here.

In High-A:

• #39 Sam Peterson got promoted and was basically High-A’s best hitter in June: .286/.370/.400.
• #88 Miguel Gomez cruised for the month in the closer role with a sub 1.00 ERA.

In Low-A:

• #90 Yoander Rivero was the teams’ best hitter in June … and just hit the DL.
• #96 Pablo Aldonis is making a name for himself in the bullpen.
• #42 Robert Cranz dominated again in June and just earned a promotion.

In FCL:

• #23 Elijah Green officially was sent to the FCL, hopefully to re-work everything. So far? .229/.386/.286. 13/9 K/BB in 12 games. Ok, so that’s an improvement. Interesting that he’s taking so many walks all of a sudden; is that wild pitching or is that him showing plate discipline as part of his reworking? The team has so much invested in him, it’ll be interesting to see what they come up with.
• #44 Jose Feliz, continues to remain one of the best starters in FCL.
• #45 Dashyll Tejeda, remains hot: .315/.351/.407 in June after similar numbers in May. Great to see.
• #72 Sir Jamison Jones: improved greatly this month; .308/.440/.615. Wow. Love those numbers. Another month and he’s gonna have to move up just like Dickerson did.

In the DSL, here’s how the first month went for the six DSL guys i’ve got on my top 100 list. These are all position players, ironic in that the strength of our DSL team right now seems to be its rotation.

• #22 Victor Hurtado, our big-money 2024 guy, not impressing yet again in 2025. .259/.429/.296. He’s listed as a corner OF; need to see more power here.
• #29 Brayan Cortesia has wasted no time making his introduction post signing in January: June: .440/.481/.520. He’s 11 for 25 with some doubles, so SSS but a solid start.
• #37 Daniel Hernandez, who’s starting to get some prospect love in other shops, struggling to start hitting just .213 for the month. Listed as a C when signing but a DH so far for DSL.
• #66: Rony Bello: .801 OPS to start the season.
• #70 Hector Liriano: hitting .152 as a 1B? that’s not going to cut it.
• #103 Juan Obispo is hitting .313 in very limited action so far.

Lost in the CWS and draft content shuffle, we got an updated top 30 from Baseball America last week. We don’t get too many mid-season revampings of the top 30 Prospects, especially from some of the main pundits (who have lots of other stuff to cover mid-season, like draft scouting), but Baseball America has made it happen. So here’s their 6/6/25 updated Nats top 30.

This is worth a recap post, because there’s a huge amount of change and churn here. They haven’t just graduated a couple players and moved everyone else up a slot. They’ve really given some thought to moving players around, enough so that I’m going to list where they’re ranked now and where they were back in January.

Rank	Jan 25 Rank	Last Name	First Name	Position
1	2	Sykora	Travis	RHP (Starter)
2	3	Susana	Jarlin	RHP (Starter)
3	4	House	Brady	SS/3B
4	6	Clemmey	Alex	LHP (Starter)
5	11	Dickerson	Luke	SS/CF
6	10	Lile	Daylen	OF (CF)
7	7	Cavalli	Cade	RHP (Starter)
8	5	King	Seaver	SS
9	8	Lomavita	Caleb	C
10	12	Hassell III	Robert	OF (CF)
11	13	Bennett	Jake	LHP (Starter)
12	22	Morales	Yohandy	3B
13	15	Feliz	Angel	3B/SS
14	40+	Henry	Cole	RHP (Starter)
15	29	Lord	Brad	RHP (Starter)
16	9	Wallace	Cayden	2B/3B
17	14	Bazzell	Kevin	C/3B
18	17	Cortesia	Brayan	SS
19	25	Stuart	Tyler	RHP (Starter)
20	36	Kent	Jackson	LHP (Starter)
21	26	Hernandez	Daniel	C
22	19	Lara	Andry	RHP (Starter)
23	40+	Riley	Cornelio	RHP (Starter)
24	35	Tejada Jr.	Yoel	RHP (Reliever)
25	40+	Mota	Jorgelys	SS
26	16	Pinckney	Andrew	OF (Corner)
27	40+	Davian	Garcia	RHP (Starter)
28	23	Green	Elijah	OF (CF)
29	28	Vaquero	Cristian	OF (CF)
30	24	Cranz	Robert	RHP (Reliever)

So, lets get into it:

• Jan 2025’s #1 Crews has graduated, of course.
• 2-3-4 from January just moved up a spot each, making Sykora our #1 on their list. It’s the first time Sykora has officially been #1 on any list that I track or am aware of.
• Seaver King, despite being promoted recently takes a dip on their list, dropping from #5 to #8. Fair. He’s not had the glitzy pro debut we were hoping for.
• Dickerson gets a huge bump with his impressive pro debut, which has already resulted in a promotion.
• Lile gets credit for his excellent 2025 season, which has resulted in his graduation to the majors, and gets ranked at #6, the highest he’s been on any list either. He hasn’t been hitting necessarily awesome in his majors stint, but lots of players struggle in their debut.
• Morales, as we discussed ad naseum during the off-season, had been relatively unfairly dropped on a lot of lists for a hand injury that we know takes a while to come back from … well he’s back. He’s now in AAA, and BA jumped him 10 spots from January to June.
• Cole Henry! Outside BA’s top 40 six months ago, now he’s firmly in the MLB bullpen and listed at #14 here, one spot ahead of Lord, which … well, come on, who is more valuable to the MLB team? A guy who throws an inning every other day or a guy who has proven he can pitch in the rotation or in relief at the MLB level? Honestly, it won’t matter in a couple of months b/c both seem set to graduate from the prospect ranks soon anyway.
• Wallace gets dumped a slew of spots. Fair. He’s struggled this year and has done nothing to show any improvement or any push upwards.
• Bazzell only dropped a few spots: surprised he’s not penalized more for his slow pro start
• Jackson Kent gets due recognition for the solid start to his pro career in High-A.
• Riley Cornelio makes his debut on any prospect list anywhere, coming in at #23. After years of mediocre ERAs and stats, he’s put it together so far in 2025, and is now in AA.
• Yoel Tejeda, the FSU draftee from last year, is dealing in Low-A. The above table lists him as a Reliever initally, but he’s proven to be a solid starter so far in 2025. He may get a promotion to High-A at the mid-season at this rate.
• Davian Garcia is another Low-A 2024 starter who’s holding his own. His numbers aren’t quite as good as Tejeda, but the FGCU 6th rounder certainly has promise. Also as with Cornelio, this is first time on any prospect list.
• Pinckney and Green take understandable dips on the rankings. Though Pinckney is in AAA, he’s struggling. Green has been mysteriously non-transacted to XST, perhaps the team finally fed up with his 2K/game rate.
• Super reliever prospect Cranz, inexplicably ranked #24 in January, hangs on to the last spot at #30. I’m not sure why they dumped him so far: he’s got a .108 BAA so far as the closer in Low-A.

Highest guys on my ranking not to be mentioned here:

• Hurtado our big 2024 IFA bonus guy, still in DSL. Its early.
• Glove-first SS guys like Ramirez Jr., Made; still not really hitting.
• Armando Cruz, our big 2021 IFA bonus guy, struggling in Wilmington.
• Alvarez; may have been opening day starter in AAA but seems not to really be a prospect.
• Brzycky: BA had him #21 earlier this year and he’s been promoted; why dump him based on 11 MLB innings? He hasn’t graduated. I dunno.
• 4-A types like Baker, Nunez, Chapparo. I think BA thinks of them as spare parts as opposed to prospects.
• Millas: #18 in January, not out of the top 30. Interesting. I know theres plenty of people who think Millas is better than Adams who read this … he’s basically done nothing this year.
• Lastly, most of the guys in the BA 31-40 range from January are nowhere to be found on the new list; probably still treading water in that range on their internal lists.

Here’s our eighth check-in on the 1-1 candidates this spring. This week summarizes the post season play for our top prospects (conference tourneys, regionals, and super regionals) and talks about the mocks and other draft content that’s popped up lately. High Schoolers are done, with zero new news to report about the top prep candidates.

Important Draft related news and notes, plus Mocks and Draft rankings that have published since our last posting, are listed below:

• Keith Law at the Athletic released his 2025 Draft board top 100 ranking on 5/21/25. He ranks them Holliday, Doyle, Arnold, Arquette, Houston. He has Hernandez all the way down at #21.
• Law then held a Chat on May 22nd where we got his thoughts on some 1-1 related stuff.
• ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel posted his latest mock draft on 5/28/25. He goes Holliday, Doyle, Anderson, Arquette, and Willits. He has Hernandez falling to #9, but also admits he could go anywhere inbetween.
• Baseball America released their 2025 Draft Top 500, adding another 100 names from their April edition. This is probably the last draft board they’ll release. They’ve updated their ranks, which i’ve cross-correlated in the player block below. They now go Holliday, Hernandez, Willits, Arquette, Arnold.
• MLBPipeline updated their Draft board on 5/28/25, expanding it to 200. There’s been significant movement in the top 10, with Anderson flying up the board from #9 a month ago to #3 now. Top 5: Holliday, Hernandez, Anderson, Arnold, Willits. As with the BA update, all the MLB ranks below are updated to be current.
• MLBPiepline’s Jim Callis came out with a new mock draft on 5/29/25: he claims the Nats are following 7-8 players but also seems confident with Holliday at 1-1. His top 5: Holliday, Doyle, Anderson, Arnold, Willits.
• MLBPipeline’s Jonathan Mayo then popped up with his latest mock on 6/5/25 with a big shocker at the top: He thinks Washington is now going LSU’s Anderson 1-1. top 5: Anderson, Doyle, Arquette, Holliday, Arnold. Very college heavy, all four major D1 players off board by 5th pick. Interesting.

Aggregation Stats for College Baseball for Reference:

• Fangraphs Standard Hitting, Advanced Hitting
• Fangraphs Standard Pitching, Advanced Pitching
• Baseball-Reference College Home Page
• NCAA Division 1 Baseball Stats Home Page
• D1Baseball.com Stats Home Page
• D1Baseball.com Conference tournament Central

Draft Boards (not mocks): these are major shops Prospect Ranking lists, usually with Scouting reports, video, tool grades, etc.

• MLBpipeline 5/29/25, expanded top 200 Draft Board. 5/29/25
• Baseball America top 500 updated 5/28/25.
• Keith Law Top 100 Big Board 5/22/25

Link Block for the top guys under 1-1 consideration

• Jamie Arnold, LHP, Florida State. FSU stats & box Scores, MLB (#4), BA (#5), PL (#1)
• Aiva Arquette, SS, Oregon State. OSU stats & box scores, MLB (#6), BA (#4), PL (#7)
• Liam Doyle, LHP, Tennessee. Tenn stats & box scores, MLB (#9), BA (#8), PL (#10+)
• Kade Anderson, LHP, LSU. LSU Stats & box scores, MLB (#3), BA (#6), PL (#10+)

Prep Players who are in the running for 1-1:

• Ethan Holliday, SS/3B, Stillwater HS (OK). MLB (#1), BA (#1), ProspectsLive (#4)
• Seth Hernandez, RHP, Corona HS (CA). MLB (#2), BA (#2), ProspectsLive (#2)
• Eli Willits, SS, Fort Cobb HS (OK). MLB (#5), BA (#3), ProspectsLive (#9)

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Here’s some updated commentary on the players seemingly in the running; all four had significant post season stats to discuss:

• Arnold got knocked around a bit by Duke in the ACC tournament ( 5ip, 5runs), then got the win against Mississippi State with a 7ip 13K 119 pitch appearance in the Regionals. FSU won their regional, so we got one last start from Arnold in the super regional losing effort: 6.2, 1R, 6 hits, 9/1 K/BB on 113 pitches. Can’t ask for much more than that.
• Arquette had two weeks off thanks to Oregon State’s lack of a conference tournament, then went to town in the Regional, going 9-23 with a homer in the finale as OSU got stretched as a regional host but advanced. In the super regional: 5-13 with a walk and a bunch of runs scored; not bad.
• Doyle had an abbreviated start in the SEC tournament against Texas, going just 3.2 and giving up 6 hits/4 runs. He needed 79 pitches to not even get out of the 4th. Then in regionals, Tennessee threw him in the first game oddly, where he predictably dominated Miami of Ohio with 11Ks over 6.2 innings for the win. Ok, so far so good … but then Tennessee puts him BACK on the mound in the regional final to close it out and he’s throwing 99 on two days rest in basically the highest leverage situation he’s ever faced as a player. Not. Good. I’d be scared to death he just did serious arm damage to himself. He’ll get another start in four days. Finally in the Super Regional he had to go against Arkansas, a team that shelled him earlier in the year … and he got hit again in his final start: 3.2 5h 5r, 2WP, 1HBP, and yanked in the 4th. Not a great look for evaluators getting their final look at the guy, and I think his chances of going 1-1 are finished.
• Anderson got the start in the SEC tournament opener and dominated Texas A&M, 6ip, 12Ks and got lifted with just 84 pitches. Then in the regional he went game 2 against Dallas Baptist and threw an absolute gem: 7ip, 4hits, 0 runs 11/2 K/BB on 106 pitches. In the super Regional game one, Anderson got hit: 7r (6 earned) on 9 hits in 7ip .. however its worth noting that LSU was up 10-1 by the time Anderson gave up these runs. It’s entirely possible he just cruised through the last two innings to give the bullpen a break. He’s the only one of these players to make to Omaha.

Prep kids:

• Holliday: season complete.
• Hernandez: season complete.
• Willits: season complete.

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The Race for 1-1 status: I still think we’re on Holliday. Anderson has clearly supplanted both Arnold and Doyle in the “big three college lefties” ranking, but I don’t think its enough to get past Holliday.

So my current top 5 prediction: Holliday, Anderson, Hernandez, Doyle, Arquette.

Here’s the two month check-in with all our top 20 (and some) prospects. All stats as of 6/1/25. I dove a bit deeper into any starter in my 6/1 rotation check in, but i’ll repeat some of the info here. Note: all stats were as of 6/1 and I know some stuff has happened since so i’ll add in last three days updates.

#1. Dylan Crews OF (CF): was slashing just .167/.308/.352 in May to lower his already poor seasonal numbers when he tweaked something in his left side and hit the DL with an oblique injury. This is the kind of injury that can derail a season. So much for that Rookie of the Year hopes. How concerned should we be long-term? I really was hoping for him to hit the ground running and he just hasn’t. Temperature: on ice.

#2 Travis Sykora RHP (Starter): off the DL, inexplicably started in low-A, so far unhittable in High-A too. He’s now 21, so its time to get him out of A-Ball. Temperature: red hot.

#3 Brady House SS/3B: Continuing to hit in AAA; .284/.339/.500 slash line for May. Would like to see abit more OBP, but he’s definitely starting to get the team to ask questions about the sh*t-show they’re throwing out at 3B in the majors. Temperature: hotter.

#4 Jarlin Susana RHP (Starter). Hit the DL with a “grade 1 UCL strain.” Which in Nats parlance probably means two months off, an attempted start, and TJ surgery. Temperature: on ice.

# 5 Seaver King SS. King has been improving. His May slash line: .291/.321/.408. Not bad. Still not where we’d like to see him based on the performance of some players we passed up to take him. All that said, just after we wrote this we learned he’s reportedly being promoted to AA (perhaps by the time you read this). Mentioned in the comments is a reminder of how hard it is to hit in Wilmington. Here’s King’s home/road splits so far in 2025: home: .214/.275/.286. Road: 305/.337/.463. Ok, well that’s pretty clear. Maybe we need to keep reminding ourselves not to judge Wilmington hitters too harshly, again. Temperature: warming a bit

# 6 Yohandy Morales 1B/3B: Earned a promotion to AAA. .326/.396/.463 in May. That’s awesome. Maybe he continues to mash in AAA and lets the Nats sunset our ridiculous .150-hitting DH Josh Bell. Temperature: pretty warm.

#7 Cayden Wallace 2B/3B: struggling in AA. He had a marginally better May than April, but still only hit .212 for the month. That’s not good enough for a top-10 prospect, nor is it one that’s going to push for a promotion. He continues to split time between 2B and 3B, though honestly after watching him earlier this spring he seems like a 2B longer term. Which is good, if House turns out to have a years-long lock on the position. Temperature: still cold.

# 8 Cade Cavalli RHP (Starter): he’s back, he’s embarrassing hitters in AAA ( 25/6 K/BB in 16 IP) and I think we see him in the majors inside of a month. hallelujah! Temperature: Warming fast.

#9 Alex Clemmey LHP (Starter): He’s starting to heat up. 1.59 ERA, a ton of Ks, but too many walks in May. You’re not going to keep a starter with a 1.59 ERA in the league for long. Temperature: heating up.

# 10 Robert Hassell III OF (CF): Really started to hit the ball in AAA in May (.330./.356/.500), then got a callup to cover for the injured Young and has held his own in his MLB debut so far: .268/.268/.351). Can’t ask for much more there. Lots of naysayers are eating crow on him right now. Oh, and man he’s fast. Temperature: hot

#11 Caleb Lomavita C: Continuing his solid pro debut; his average and OBP dipped in May, but his power spiked up. Remember, he’s a catcher; if he can mainitain a .800 OPS figure and have plus defense, we’ll be ecstatic. Temperature: Staying Warm.

# 12 Luke Dickerson SS/CF: quickly got promoted out of the FCL and is now hitting well in Low-A: .293/.403/.466 so far playing exclusively SS for Fredericksburg. Great debut so far. I’m so cynical on prep kids that we draft not working out … that i’m shocked he’s this good this quick. Temperature: Red Hot.

# 13 Andry Lara RHP (Starter): He hit the DL in late April and spent the entire month of May there. I have no idea what the injury is, nor is he appearing on the Nats official injury report. Temperature: cold.

#14 Tyler Stuart RHP (Starter): My last-month worries about a TJ are gone: he’s made four rehab starts and has dominated in them. As he should, as someone who solved AA last year and who needs to be in AAA. Great news that he’ll be back soon. Postwriting; he’s been taken off DL and optioned to AA for the time being. Hopefully not there for long. Temperature: hope to warm up soon.

#15 Daylen Lile OF (CF): His hot hitting continued in AAA after his promotion last month, which earned him a MLB call up, where he’s been covering for the Young/Crews injuries for weeks now. He’s not lighting MLB on fire, but he’s 22 in the majors. All due credit. Temperature: red hot.

#16 Kevin Bazzell C/3B: after hitting .115 in April, he’s improved a bunch; he hit .245 in May. Still not the .280/.380/.450 slash line i’d like to see out of a college slugger. Definitely a disappointing debut. Temperature: cool

#17 Jake Bennett LHP (Starter): Bennett made 3 starts to open the month, but now hasn’t pitched since May 11th. Uh oh. Would love to know what is going on here, if anyone has intel. Temperature: very cold.

#18 Brad Lord RHP (Starter): continues to be a multi-role pitcher in the MLB pen and he’s holding firm with a 95 ERA+ for the year. Temperature: red hot for the development, decently warm for production.

#19 Angel Feliz 3B/SS: promoted stateside for the FCL 2025 season and is cruising so far: .333/.420/.467 in a month in Florida. That’s great to see. Temperature: hot

#20 Andrew Pinckney OF (Corner): holding steady with mediocre slash lines playing RF for AAA. He’s officially been passed on the OF depth chart by both Hassell and Lile, and the next time they need an OF call-up it might not be Pinckney even then. Temperature: cold

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Notables #20 and above by the Level they started 2025:

in AAA:

• #28 Andrew Alvarez LHP (Starter) saw his AAA numbers fall. I feel like, when the time comes for a real prospect to rise and needs a AAA spot, he may soon be in trouble. Right now there’s three AAA starters on the DL (Stuart, Ogasawara, Lara) and all three are “better” prospects than Alvaraz, as much as I like him. Maybe he can find a home in the bullpen, especially as a lefty.
• #31 Andres Chapparo 1B has been optioned to AAA post injury stint thanks to a squeeze on the MLB roster; he’s still a “prospect” and has been (unsurprisingly) tearing up AAA. If Rizzo parts ways with millions of dollars of unproducing relievers, what’s to stop him from parting ways with millions of dollars of unproducing DHs (Josh Bell)?
• #35 Jackson Rutledge RHP (Starter->Reliever) has stepped back for the MLB bullpen, but has been a better option than the three veterans they’ve now released (Sims, Poche, Lopez).

In AA:

• #36 Cole Henry RHP (starter->reliever) has become one of the best relievers in the MLB bullpen. Can’t say i saw this coming.
• #41 Marquis Grissom RHP (Reliever) has been shelled in AAA and isn’t anywhere close to knocking on the door.
• #47 Phillip Glasser SS has cooled from his hot start.
• #50 Max Romero C is making the team forget about its younger Catching depth with a .339/.386/.519 May in AA.
• #75 Seth Shuman RHP earned a promotion to AAA, where he’s struggling to hold onto it.

In High-A:

• #23 Elijah Green has been unofficially demoted to rookie ball in an undocumented move probably meant to not embarrass him. He has no official ABs since May 17th.
• #26 Jackson Kent continues to pitch well and won’t be a #26 prospect for long.
• #27 Armando Cruz continues to struggle at the plate.
• #51 Brenner Cox had the lowest OPS for Wilmington for the month at just .387.

In Low-A:

• #21 Christhian Vaquero is not really improving at the plate.
• #42 Robert Cranz had a solid month; 9ip, 2hits, 14/3 K/BB. Still would like to see him in the rotation.
• #43 Randal Diaz only hit .194 for the month.

In FCL:

• #44 Jose Feliz, a 23IFA RHP has been FCL’s best starter so far: 24/4 K/BB in 5 starts with a near 3.00 ERA.
• #45 Dashyll Tejeda, also a 23IFA and with Feliz the two best players out of that class so far, has started out hot: .300/.488/.367 with his move stateside.
• #72 Sir Jamison Jones: slow out of the gate at .214 for the month.

Its College Baseball post-season time, something we’ve followed in this space for years. Here’s a quick guide to the CWS 2025 post season. The field of 64 was announced on Memorial Day Weekend at Noon, so here’s a preview of this coming weekend’s 16 regional events.

First off, some resources for you.

• Your final top 25 heading into the post-season according to d1baseball, baseballamerica, and usatoday Coaches poll.
• Local teams in the rankings: it’s a really down year for area college: there’s not one Virginia team anywhere near the top 25 this year. In fact, there’s not a single VOTE for a DC/MD/VA college team in the final USA Today poll.
• WarrenNolan’s RPI rankings are a very important part of the seeding and selection process, as we’ll discuss in a bit.
• Here’s D1Baseball.com’s Tournament Central, my favorite place to track the tourney.
• Here’s the NCAA.com field of 64 Bracket with some great data points at NCAA.com

Your top 8 seeds and favorites to make Omaha, in order, along with their RPI and their Strength of Schedule (SoS) denoted:

1. Vanderbilt (42-16): RPI #1, SoS #2
2. Texas (42-12): RPI #4, SoS #19
3. Arkansas (43-13): RPI #5, SoS #14
4. Auburn (38-18): RPI #3, SoS #1
5. North Carolina (42-12): #6 RPI, #23 SoS
6. LSU (43-14): #10 RPI, #36 SoS
7. Georgia (42-15): #2 RPI, #4 SoS
8. Oregon State (41-12-1): #7 RPI, #42 SoS

There’s definitely some interesting stuff to digest here. Vanderbilt finished 4th in the SEC regular season but won the post-season title, which vaulted them above Texas for #1. They’ve been RPI #1 for a bit, so no surprise here. Texas won the SEC regular season title by two games over Arkansas, who gets the #3 national seed. UNC finished 3rd in the ACC regular season but won the ACC title, likely cementing their slot as a top 8 seed. Interestingly Georgia Tech was the ACC regular season winner but didn’t even get a hosting spot. LSU sneaks into a regional spot at the expense of #8 RPI Coastal Carolina, likely a nod to the amazing atmosphere at LSU’s home stadium. Lastly the orphaned Oregon State team more than earned its #7 seed with its barnstorming season. There’s no easy outs amongst the top 8 seeds.

The National seeds 9-16 and the other regional hosts go as follows:

• #9 Florida State (38-14) : #14 RPI, #24 SoS
• #10 Ole Miss (40-19): #12 RPI, #5 SoS
• #11 Clemson (44-16): #9 RPI, #16 SoS
• #12 Oregon (42-14): #16 RPI, #35 SoS
• #13 Coastal Carolina (48-11): #8 RPI, #66 SoS
• #14 Tennessee (43-16): #11 RPI, #12 SoS
• #15 UCLA (42-16): #15 RPI, #22 SoS
• #16 Southern Miss (44-14): #19 RPI, #67 SoS

Unlike 2024, there’s no real hosting shocks here. Oregon remains a host despite losing early in the Big 10 conference tournament. Ole Miss made a huge run to the SEC tourney final and will be a tough out. Alabama ends up being the highest RPI team to not host (#13), likely due to an early exit in the SEC tournament and a 16-14 league record.

Local DC/MD/VA local teams in the tourney:

None. Last year there were three Virginia teams in the field of 64, including UVA as a national seed. This year, not so much. West Virginia is in, along with nearby Carolina schools like ECU and Coastal Carolina that sometimes recruit in the state. This year, nothing.

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Quick Regional Thoughts

Here’s one sentence or so on each regional

1. Vanderbilt (42-16): The #1 seeds get a super easy regional with their #2 as RPI #32 Louisville. No upsets here, but Louisville has a big-time arm that could throw a monkey wrench into the plans.
2. Texas (42-12) gets a really easy regional, with three mid-majors and no real threats.
3. Arkansas (43-13) gets the Big East champ Creighton as a #3 seed, a bit troubling, but may not even see them. Their #2 seed is Kansas, not exactly a baseball powerhouse this year.
4. Auburn (38-18): gets NC state as their 2nd seed, and gets Stetson, who got into the tournament in controversial fashion when their conference tournament got rained out.
5. North Carolina (42-12) was not done any favors by the committee, getting #2 Oklahoma and the big10 tourney champs Nebraska as a #3. Ouch.
6. LSU (43-14) will have Dallas Baptist to contend with (#20 RPI), but otherwise has an easy draw.
7. Georgia (42-15) gets two storied programs in Duke and Oklahoma State, but both programs struggled this year against Quadrant-1 schools.
8. Oregon State (41-12-1) has a pretty manageable regional that includes TCU and USC in down years.
9. Florida State (38-14) gets the team with the best record in the land in Northeastern (48-9 with a 25-2 in-confernece record), but they have almost no Q1 experience.
10. Ole Miss (40-19) comes in red-hot, having made the SEC tourney final. For their troubles they get ACC regular season champ Georgia Tech, but being hosts will make the difference here.
11. Clemson (44-16) struggled at season’s end and has a tricky regional that includes West Virginia and the controversial Kentucky, who squeaked into this draw as the last of 13 SEC teams in the tourney.
12. Oregon (42-14): Upset watch here: Oregon has two tough teams in Arizona and Cal Poly to contend with.
13. Coastal Carolina (48-11): They’ll have to prove their lofty RPI here; they have to deal with Florida. Florida is certainly battle tested: 28 of their 58 games were against Q1 schools.
14. Tennessee (43-16): probably saves their Ace for Wake Forest in game two and should cruise in a relatively easy regional.
15. UCLA (42-16): gets three other West Coast teams, any of whom seem to be possible to win here. UC Irvine, Arizona State, and Fresno State all have major college baseball pedigree, and California college baseball is just different.
16. Southern Miss (44-14); the mid-major has to contend with both Alabama, who arguably should have had a host, AND Miami. Ouch.

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Prospect Watch. We’ve talked the top guys to death, but here’s where they’re playing. By region, here’s some guys to watch that are like top 50 college prospects in this year’s draft:

D1baseball.com’s Prospect Watch post is here as well.

CBS sports RJ Anderson had top 10 prospects to watch post as well.

1. Vanderbilt Regional: Vandy could have to contend with Supp-1st projected Alabama ace Patrick Forbes in game 2 of their regional.
2. Texas Regional: Texas’ speedy OF Max Belyeu is a late 1st round projection.
3. Arkansas Regional: their transfer SS Wehiwa Aloy projects as back of 1st round now, and they have a big left in Zach Root who’s a supp-1st rounder projection.
4. Auburn Regional: their big hitter is Ike Irish a C/OF type.
5. North Carolina Regional: UNC’s catcher Luke Stevenson projects as a late 1st rounder. Oklahoma’s ace Kyson Witherspoon could face UNC in game 2.
6. LSU Regional: left ace Kade Anderson will lead the way for LSU.
7. Georgia Regional: Georgia is really a team effort; they only have one top 200 projected draft player in OF/1B Tre Phelps
8. Oregon State Regional: top-5 projected pick Aiva Arquette stars for OSU.
9. Florida State Regional: FSU’s ace Jamie Arnold likely goes game 2.
10. Ole Miss Regional: Ole Miss’ big arm is Mason Morris, a likely 3rd rounder.
11. Clemson Regional: their leading hitter Cam Cannarella was on upper 1st round watch early, but has faded.
12. Oregon Regional: Arizona’s leading hitter Brendan Summerhill leads their attack.
13. Coastal Carolina Regional: Their leading prospect is C Caden Bodine, who has seen his star really fade this season.
14. Tennessee Regional: top-5 projected Liam Doyle will have scouts out for sure. Tennessee also has mid-1st rounder Gavin Kilen and supp-1st round Andrew Fischer in the lineup. Wake’s Marek Houston has top-5 buzz and would be a great matchup when Doyle pitches. Wake also has late 1st rounder Ethan Conrad in the OF.
15. UCLA Regional: there’s a slew of 3rd and 4th rounders amongst all the teams here, typical for a California-heavy regional.
16. Southern Miss Regional: Southern Miss is led by ace RHP JB Middleton, a late 1st round projection. He could face off in game 2 against Alabama’s Riley Quick, a Fastball/Slider guy who also projects in the same range.

Top 1st round prospects whose team outright missed the post season:

• TAMU and Jace LaViolette, projected 1-1 to begin the year, now a mid-1st rounder.
• UC Santa Barbara and Tyler Bremner: how his stock has fallen this year.
• Indiana and Devin Taylor got a couple of shout outs, but he’s pushed back to end of 1st round.

We’ll circle back next week with Regional recaps and Super Regional projections. We probably will also return with a check-in on the 1-1 candidates in our regular series.

Here’s our seventh check-in on the 1-1 candidates this spring. We’re at the end of week 14 of the college season, which is also the end of the regular season for the major conferences. Next week is conference tournaments, then we get the field of 64 and regionals. We’ll continue to have stat updates but they’ll likely be tied to post-season performances going forward.

Important Draft related news and notes, plus Mocks and Draft rankings that have published since our last posting, are listed below:

• MLBPipeline’s Jim Callis published his first official Mock Draft of the season on 5/6/25. He goes Holliday, Doyle, Anderson, Hernandez, and Arnold. Highest i’ve seen either Doyle or especially Anderson.
• Keith Law at the Athletic released his first Mock draft on 5/7/25. He goes Holliday, Doyle, Arquette, Arnold, and Witherspoon (?), who i’ve not ever mentioned/studied once in this series. He’s Oklahoma’s Friday night RHP starter (sound familiar?).
• Baseball America Mock Draft 3.0 on 5/12/25. They go Holliday, Arquette, Hernandez, Doyle, Arnold. Pretty high for Arquette, but more in line with my current predictions (see the bottom).
• ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel posted a “mini-mock” and his top 150 list on 5/14/25. Of course his top 5 in the mock didn’t match his ranks. Mock went Holliday, Arnold, Hernandez, Doyle, Anderson. His ranks go Arnold, Willits, Holliday, Hernandez, Carlson. He loves the prep kids in FV.
• MLBPipeline’s Jonathan Mayo posted his latest Mock draft on 5/15/25. Holliday, Arnold, Doyle, Arquette, Anderson. The MLB guys clearly like Anderson.

Aggregation Stats for College Baseball for Reference:

• Fangraphs Standard Hitting, Advanced Hitting
• Fangraphs Standard Pitching, Advanced Pitching
• Baseball-Reference College Home Page
• NCAA Division 1 Baseball Stats Home Page
• D1Baseball.com Stats Home Page
• MLBpipeline top 150 updated 4/29/25
• Baseball America top 400 updated 4/30/25

Link Block for the top guys under 1-1 consideration

• Jamie Arnold, LHP, Florida State. FSU stats & box Scores, MLB (#3), BA (#1), PL (#1)
• Aiva Arquette, SS, Oregon State. OSU stats & box scores, MLB (#5), BA (#4), PL (#7)
• Liam Doyle, LHP, Tennessee. Tenn stats & box scores, MLB (#10), BA (#11), PL (#10+)
• Kade Anderson, LHP, LSU. LSU Stats & box scores, MLB (#9), BA (#12), PL (#10+)

Prep Players who are in the running for 1-1:

• Ethan Holliday, SS/3B, Stillwater HS (OK). MLB (#1), BA (#2), ProspectsLive (#4)
• Seth Hernandez, RHP, Corona HS (CA). MLB (#2), BA (#3), ProspectsLive (#2)
• Eli Willits, SS, Fort Cobb HS (OK). MLB (#4), BA (#6), ProspectsLive (#9)

Prospects guys now removed from 1-1 discussion at this point. I’m just leaving their ranks at this point for space considerations.

• Cam Canarella, CF, Clemson. MLBPipeline rpt (#38), BA (#25)
• Gavin Kilen, 2B, Tennessee. MLBPipeline rpt (#16), BA (#18)
• Devin Taylor, OF, Indiana. MLBPipeline rpt (#23), BA (#38)
• Brendan Summerhill, OF, Arizona. MLBPipeline rpt (#22), BA (#24)
• Tyler Bremner, RHP, UC Santa Barbara. MLBPipeline rpt (#17), BA (#13)
• Kayson Cunningham, SS, Johnson HS (TX). MLB (#6), BA (#9), PL (#10)
• Marek Houston, SS, Wake Forest. BA (#7), PL (#10+)
• Billy Carlson, SS/RHP Corona HS (CA). MLB (#6), BA (#8), PL (#3)
• Kyson Witherspoon, RHP, Oklahoma. Only here b/c Law had him in a top-5 mock.
• Jace LaViolette, CF, Texas A&M. TAMU stats & Box Scores, MLB (#7), BA (#5), PL (#5)

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Here’s some updated commentary on the players seemingly in the running.

• Arnold had a quality start in Berkeley (you know, Cal-Berkeley, a member of the “Atlantic Coast” Conference), then got roughed up by #4 UNC in his final regular season start, giving up 4 runs in 5 IP. FSU is likely to be a top 8 seed, which means Arnold probably gets at least three more starts (ACC tournament, Regionals, and Super-Regionals) before FSU is likely done; hopefully they make the CWS for even more looks.
• Arquette had a decent series against Long Beach State for his top-5 ranked OSU team, and his performance seems to have reached its stability point for the season. He’s now at .348/.473/.676 from .351/.472/.701 two weeks ago, almost identical numbers across the board. He seems like a lock for the top 5, but seems out of the running for 1-1 to the Nats.
• LaViolette finally gets “cut” from this discussion list. I just don’t see him supplanting the college guys on this list for 1-1 consideration, and Callis’ mock has him nearly out of the top 10.
• Doyle remains on this list to continue discussing now that MLBpipeline has both him and Anderson jumping Arnold in his 5/6/25 mock. He pitched amazingly well to shut down Vandy two weeks ago, 7ip 3h 0r 12K. Then he got shelled in his final regular season start against top-ranked Arkansas: 4 2/3, 11 hits (!), 8 runs. Not the lasting impression to leave with scouts. Luckily he’ll have a couple post-season starts to rebound.
• Anderson and Doyle both sit near the top of the national K/9 ranks, and had to face down two great teams to end the season. Against #1 Arkansas, Anderson went 5 2/3r, 10/1 K/BB and gave up 2 runs. not bad. Then to finish the season at South Carolina, Anderson went 6 2/3rds and gave up just one run. Definitely finished strong, but he’s 3rd out of 3 top LHP college pitchers on most boards apparently.

Prep kids: Not much news this cycle; most Prep HS schedules are starting to wind down. In fact, I have zero updates on any of the top three prep kids

• Holliday
• Hernandez
• Willits

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The Race for 1-1 status: More and more I’m thinking the college arms are not in contention, while we’re seeing fast risers from the prep ranks. I now think the Nats are down to one of 3 guys: Arnold, Hernandez, and Holliday. I think they’re going to end up with Holliday.

In Week 12, I reviewed each of the top 5 teams, discussing their draft proclivities in more detail, which leads me to these guesses as to who they’ll draft. Here’s how I think they’ll pick, assuming we go Holliday 1-1.

• Angels: close to majors, college guys: Arnold or Doyle. Maybe Arquette
• Seattle: top-end Prep kids: Willits or more likely Hernandez
• Colorado: college arms: Doyle or Arnold if available
• St. Louis: college bats: LaViolette, Arquette more likely.

So my current top 5: Holliday, Arnold, Hernandez, Doyle, Arquette.

Before we get too far away from May 1st … Here’s a one-month check in on our 20 prospects plus other notables in the system.

I published my Nats Prospect Rankings back in March, and the xls is here online. I have not updated it since, though we have had some movement (Crews graduated, Reifert returned, Garcia released). I’ll use my rankings as a guide to review players here. I’ll use a quick “hot or not” grading system for their start to the 2025 season.

Here’s my top 20 and a quick heat check on how they’re doing, plus notables ranked above 20 worth mentioning. All stats were as of 5/1/25, the day I wrote this. I realize that today 5/6 some of the below has already changed …

#1. Dylan Crews OF (CF): had a brutal start to the season (getting one hit in his first 7 games) and is clawing his way out. Slash line sits at .212/.241/.356. He is projecting for a 20/20 season believe it or not, but he’s not impressing the ROY voters so far. His big concern right now is that he’s not walking, at all. He has just 3 walks on the year against 31 whiffs. Temperature: cold, but warming up.

#2 Travis Sykora RHP (Starter): on the low-A DL, recovering from off-season hip surgery. Not considered a major injury, should debut in High-A mid-season. The team initially said he’d be out until at least May. Temperature: TBD.

#3 Brady House SS/3B: Cruising in AAA. .292/.356/.500 slash line for the month. This is drastically improved over last year’s AAA line of .250/.280/.375. Another month of this and the current Nats 3B solution of Rosario/Tena may be replaced. Temperature: hot.

#4 Jarlin Susana RHP (Starter). Susana’s AA debut has been solid: 3.91 era, 1.5 whip and 35/17 K/BB in 23 innings. Too many walks of course, but i like that his K rate is so high even as he’s now pitching against AA hitters. You can’t ask for much more from a 21yr old in AA. Temperature: warm.

# 5 Seaver King SS. No easy way to say this: King is struggling in High-a. .233/.300/.356. 27 Ks in 19 games. I was hoping for more from his debut. Temperature: cold

# 6 Yohandy Morales 1B/3B: .246/.306/.491 in AA, which is up and down a bit from his AA line last year. He’s showing more power, but less patience (just 4 walks this month). Playing mostly 1B now, so the power is nice. Temperature: luke warm.

#7 Cayden Wallace 2B/3B: struggling in AA. .202/.250/.333. Has been playing mostly 3B but has some 2B starts filled in, a position he may have to grow more accustomed to given House’s performance ahead of him. Maybe its the fact that the Texas League has a bunch of hitter’s parks but Wallace has yet to really produce in the Eastern League. Temperature: cold

# 8 Cade Cavalli RHP (Starter): has now made rehab starts in three levels, and sits in Rochester. As discussed in my April check-in, there’s a ready made spot in the rotation right now for him, when he’s ready to go. It’s hard to gauge where he is based on him blowing away A-ball hitters, so we’ll have to see how he looks in the majors. Temperature: TBD.

#9 Alex Clemmey LHP (Starter): He’s struggling with control so far in his High-A debut. 27/20 K/BB in 18IP right now, which isn’t helping his WHIP or his ERA. Of course, he’s 19 in high-A. So no notes really. Temperature: holding steady.

# 10 Robert Hassell III OF (CF): .240/.296/.280 in AAA. He has little power and no walks. With a full MLB outfield, Hassell needs to show us something. Temperature: cool.

#11 Caleb Lomavita C: Solid pro debut so far: .302/.397/.365 in High-A starting full time. He needs more walks, and needs to hit for more power, but can’t argue with a .300 hitter. Temperature: Warm.

# 12 Luke Dickerson SS/CF: sitting in XST, yet to debut. Temperature: TBD.

# 13 Andry Lara RHP (Starter): Lara has been shelled for a 9 ERA and a .368 BAA in his AAA debut. This shouldn’t be a surprise: the team has over-promoted him basically his entire career. He had a .363 ERA in 19 AA starts last year; was that enough to prove he needed to move up? Honestly, I think he needed another month in AA but now he’s learning the AAA ropes on the fly. Temperature: cool.

#14 Tyler Stuart RHP (Starter): He is sitting on the 7 day DL in AA, apparently has an “elbow issue” that the team “hopes” isn’t serious but that he is out “indefinitely” for now. This sounds to me like months of PT, one rehab start and TJ surgery. That’s definitely a loss for this team, assuming he’s out til mid 2026. Temperature: cool.

#15 Daylen Lile OF (CF): just finished off a super month in AA slashing .319/.340/.505 and earned a promotion to AAA as of the day of this writing. He’s kept his Ks down, and has a .500 slugging with just two homers in the month, showing a ton of gap power. I’ve been bearish on him forever and may have to change my tune. His promotion was predicated by the release of Stone Garrett, who just never could recover from his broken leg and now makes way for Lile’s spot in the AAA outfield. Temperature: red hot.

#16 Kevin Bazzell C/3B: is really struggling in Low-A: .115/.201/.148 for the month. Ouch. He only has 8 Ks in 15 games/61Abs, so that’s not bad. But this is not sustainable. Temperature: ice cold.

#17 Jake Bennett LHP (Starter): As of this writing, has been activated to Low-A to make his first pro start since 2023, after missing all of last year rehabbing TJ. Our forgotten prospect, who was in the 8-10 range after his pro debut but now has drifted down into the deep teens. If he can return to his promise and his scouting report, he could be an important down-ballot prospect for this team. Temperature: tbd

#18 Brad Lord RHP (Starter): can’t ask for much more here: just an 18th rounder who made the team out of spring training and who is now getting MLB starts. His numbers are mediocre in the majors, but his success story is top notch. He’s a massive success story for this team’s player development and amateur scouting department. Temperature: red hot for the development, luke warm for the production.

#19 Angel Feliz 3B/SS: on the DSL roster for now, may get promoted stateside for the FCL 2025 season. Temperature: tbd

#20 Andrew Pinckney OF (Corner): slashing .233/.333/.349 as a starting corner OF in AAA. For now he’s starting, but may need to improve production.

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Notables #20 and above by the Level they started 2025:

in AAA:

• #28 Andrew Alvarez LHP (Starter) got the opening day start for AAA and been holding his own but has a 1.50 whip and may see his numbers regress to the mean a bit.

• #35 Jackson Rutledge RHP (Starter->Reliever) has been stellar in the MLB bullpen, after the team finally wised up and moved him to relief.

In AA:

• # 36 Cole Henry RHP (starter->reliever) has gotten promoted twice already and is now contributing in the MLB bullpen. His numbers in the majors aren’t stellar, but he’s there.

• # 41 Marquis Grissom RHP (Reliever) has already gotten promoted to AAA and should slot into the AAA closer role. He could be someone to replace an underperforming MLB reliever soon.

• # 47 Phillip Glasser SS is destroying AA pitching right now: .373/.418/.471. Not bad for a $20k bonus senior draft pick.

In High-A:

• #23 Elijah Green is still not hitting. .176/.265/.324 with 40 (!) strikeouts in 21 games. I’m just not sure what to say here. He should still be in Low-A until he learns how to hit.

• #26 Jackson Kent’s pro debut has gone great (though he got shelled in his last April start). Even with the poor outing he’s got a 30/6 K/BB, a 1.05 whip, a .217 BAA. That’s promising and he may be moving up in prospect ranks soon.

• #27 Armando Cruz is at .192/.222/.250.

• #51 Brenner Cox is at .167/.231/.217 with 31 Ks in 16 games. Just not cutting it and i’m not sure why he was promoted out of Low-A.

In Low-A:

• #21 Christhian Vaquero is marginally improving his slash line, showing some power this year. .244/.320/.395.

• #42 Robert Cranz, the sudden top 30 prospect on BA and Law’s lists, has a .161 BAA in the closer role but is walking nearly a guy an inning. So, good and bad.

• #43 Randal Diaz, also surprisingly on Law’s top 20 list for the system, is struggling out of the gate. .230/.326/.270.