Nationals Arm Race

"… the reason you win or lose is darn near always the same – pitching.” — Earl Weaver

Nats 2015 Draftee Signing Status

28 comments

Where do we stand on our signees?

Per the MLB draft bonus tracker, which is the best information i’ve seen on draft signings, here’s where we stand on our first 10 picks:

Round Name/Position Col/HS School Signed?
2 Stevenson, Andrew* OF COL jr LSU not yet signed; just gone done playing in CWS.
2 Perkins, Blake OF HS Verrado HS (AZ) signed for $800k, $93k under slot.
3 Wiseman, Rhett* OF COL jr Vanderbilt not yet signed; still playing in CWS.
4 Rivera, Mariano Jr. RHP COL sr Iona (NY) signed for $410k, exactly slot.
5 Hearn, Taylor LHP COL jr Oklahoma Baptist U. signed for $275k, 37k under slot
6 Crownover, Matt LHP COL jr Clemson signed for $160k, 70k under slot.
7 Borne, Grant LHP COL jr Nicholls State (LA) signed for $150k, 27k under slot.
8 Glover, Koda RHP COL sr Oklahoma State signed for $200k, 34k over slot.
9 Kerian, David# 1B COL sr Illinois signed for $25k, 130k under slot
10 Guilbeau, Taylor LHP COL sr Alabama signed for $25k, 124k under slot

Total savings from top 10 picks: $93k + $37k + $70k + 27k – 34k + $130k + $124k = $447k of savings before Stevenson/Wiseman go.

My intuition is that Stevenson signs for under slot and Wiseman for slightly over slot.

What about the rest of the draft?  What have we heard?  As I was writing this post, WP’s James Wagner reports that the Nats have signed 23 of their 40 picks.  But his post included no details  Who else do we know about?  From the MLB Draft Tracker, and per the Nats Draft Tracker XLS, here’s the rest of our draft and signing status.

If 8 of the top 10 have signed, that means another 15 from rounds 11-40 have signed.  Lets do some sleuthing.

Picks 11-30 included ten 4th or 5th year seniors; I’m going to assume they’ve all already signed at this point (they have no leverage and can either choose to sign for whatever the Nats give them or opt to go to indy ball).

Here’s the 10 senior draftees from the later rounds:

Round Name/Position Col/HS School
16 Sagdal, Ian* SS COL sr Washington State U.
18 Rodriguez, Melvin* 2B COL sr Jackson State U. (MS)
19 Brandt, Clayton SS COL sr MidAmerica Nazarene U (KS)
20 Reeves, John C COL sr Rice (TX)
21 Pirro, Matt RHP COL sr Wake Forest
22 Boghosian, Adam RHP COL 5s North Greenville U. (SC)
24 Smith, Blake RHP COL sr West Virginia
28 Van Vossen, Mick RHP COL sr Michigan State U.
29 Diedrick, Philip* OF COL sr Western Kentucky U.
33 La Bruna, Angelo SS COL 5S U. Southern California

So that leaves 3 non-senior signs that likely have signed on the dotted line.  Here’s what I’ve found:

11 Lee, Andrew RHP COL jr Tennessee
12 Peterson, Tommy RHP COL jr South Florida
17 Dulin, Dalton# 2B CC Northwest Mississippi CC

11th rounder Andrew Lee has signed per his twitter page.   12th rounder Tommy Peterson has signed per his twitter page.  and 17th rounder Dalton Dulin has signed per this link.

So that’s your 23 of 40 so far.  I’m guessing that the team doesn’t sign any of the players taken in rounds 31-40 (with the exception of 5th year senior 33rd rounder Angelo La Bruna), since they’re mostly high schoolers, so in reality their target for signing is really 31 players.  So they’ve signed 23 of the 31 they could expect to sign.

If anyone has heard anything else about potential signees, chime in.

 

 

 

28 Responses to 'Nats 2015 Draftee Signing Status'

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  1. Nice sleuthing! Now comes the hard part, jettisoning players to make room for the draftees. Baseball is a constant churn of out with the old, in with the new.

    John C.

    24 Jun 15 at 12:16 pm

  2. Kevin Mooney has just signed, since the Wagner update:

    http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/bs-sp-digest-0623-20150623-story.html

    Here is the current Auburn roster to see who has made it to Upstate NY:

    http://www.milb.com/roster/index.jsp?sid=t458

    Interestingly, Fedde is listed as being on the active roster. Sandman Jr. pitched last night and struck out four in two innings.

    Last but not least, the nasty Wiseman HBP and subsequent bomb:

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/dc-sports-bog/wp/2015/06/20/nationals-third-round-pick-takes-fastball-to-neck-homers-later-in-college-world-series/

    KW

    24 Jun 15 at 12:40 pm

  3. Luke’s NationalsProspects Draft Tracker has a few more signings listed:
    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1pZpAxtq3K6SxrHb6YSe3_NF6Cay0MkeYwW1Dc2_KHrE/edit?hl=en&pli=1#gid=0

    DaveB

    24 Jun 15 at 4:10 pm

  4. Stevenson signed, significantly under slot:

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/nationals-journal/wp/2015/06/24/nationals-agree-to-terms-with-top-pick-update-on-ryan-zimmerman/

    So what are they going to do with all that extra cash??? They’ve certainly got a reserve to make sure they sign Wiseman. Whether they then throw some of the extra cash at the later HS picks will remain to be seen.

    KW

    25 Jun 15 at 5:21 am

  5. This post was likely a bad idea :-) I wrote it over the weekend when the 23 of 40 article hit but it was impossible to do all the googling necessary to confirm.

    Fedde’s not only on the active roster but he started two nights ago!

    No idea what they’re doing with all the extra cash. In explicable unless its all to throw at a 15th rounder or something.

    Todd Boss

    25 Jun 15 at 8:32 am

  6. Oops, I was out of pocket for a couple of days and missed the Fedde start. Heck, the Nats had nearly the entire 2019 rotation starting on Sunday: Jordan, Voth, Lopez, Purke, and Fedde. Actually, I think Jordan and Voth will be traded sooner or later, and Purke now is just a pipe dream. All the more reason not to get overly excited about any of the new draftees . . .

    Not a bad idea at all for a post. This stuff is hard to track down. All in all, the Nats have done a good job of getting everyone in the stable early, except Wiseman, who was tied up with the CWS until last night.

    KW

    25 Jun 15 at 9:04 am

  7. Btw, no offense to whoever is doing the Draft Tracker, but its not right so I can’t really trust it. They, for example, as we speak don’t have Koda Glover (8th pick) signed but MLB has him, with bonus of $200k for 34k over slot. I’m going strictly by what i’ve found as definitive proof of a signing; announcement on official twitter, press release from reputable source.

    Todd Boss

    25 Jun 15 at 3:19 pm

  8. FWIW, Glover is now showing up on the Auburn roster.

    KW

    25 Jun 15 at 8:09 pm

  9. Luke shows Glover, Mooney, and Stevenson being assigned to Auburn. I’m a little surprised that Stevenson didn’t want to take a little time off after the long season and CWS, but I guess it’s a good sign that he’s eager to start his pro career.

    KW

    26 Jun 15 at 8:11 am

  10. KW

    26 Jun 15 at 8:32 am

  11. Man the Nats have thrown money at positionally limited second basemen out of college recently. Is this a blind spot for them?

    Read the scouting report on Schrock. Good bat, barely can field his position at 2nd and has a below average arm. 13 errors in 51 games at second!? Bonus of $500k puts him as a mid 4th rounder.

    Tony Renda, 2nd rounder in 2012 for $500k. Jeff Kobernus, also a 2nd rounder in 2009 for $700k.

    Todd Boss

    26 Jun 15 at 8:42 am

  12. Maybe Schrock sees Uggla as his role model! I don’t think he really has that much power, though. I don’t see him being worth that bonus at all.

    I always thought the Renda pick was nuts. He would have been a nice 10th rounder. Consider this, though: Renda as a junior at Cal, with the current bats, hit five HRs. Schrock’s college HR line is 6/5/6.

    KW

    26 Jun 15 at 9:33 am

  13. A couple more reports on Schrock. Seems like he slipped due to a couple of injuries. Makes me wonder if the Nats had already negotiated with some of the HS kids and know they don’t have a shot so they decided to sign Schrock to get someone with more experience. They still have roughly $350,000 of extra bonus to work with. Depending on Wisemen that may be enough to encourage one of the HS kids like Lemiuex or Watson who have lower program committments to sign instead of going to college.

    1st report – baseballdraftreport.com “South Carolina JR 2B Max Schrock could be added to the mix above and not be out of place in the least. His career line to date isn’t too far off from Chapman especially at .281/.381/.422 with 58 BB/45 K in 446 PA. A friend in the game recently compared him to another former Fullerton star, Tim Wallach. I’m not sure I see that since the body types, handedness, and home run power all seem off to me, but it’s something to think about. I’ve run into similar issues (minus the more manageable HR totals) with a David Freese (as a hitter) comparison for Schrock. One mainstream comp (I think, can’t remember where I first saw it) for Schrock is Kyle Seager. I like that comparison not only because it’s a decent enough lens to view Schrock as a prospect (again, however, I don’t think the power expectations fit – that’s something of a trend here), but also because it’s yet another excuse to talk about my appreciation for Kyle Seager. I’ve said a lot of inane stuff at this site over the years, but one of the few strokes of competency came back in March of 2009…

    Seager’s well-rounded game (great plate discipline, slightly above-average power, good baserunner, high contact rate) make him a personal favorite of mine and as good a bet as any college hitter to settle in to a long career as a league average (at least) big leaguer.”

    2nd report from minorleagueball.com

    Max Schrock – 2B/OF – B/T: L/R – Height: 5’9″ – Weight: 180 – Previously Drafted: Yes, 28th Round, 2012

    “His glove at second has been a concern and he has been making starts in left field recently with the more sure handed Marcus Mooney handling second base duties. The bat is intriguing though, with solid gap-to-gap power from the left side. He has the best bat speed on the team and had no trouble squaring up a 93 MPH heater from Kyle Cody on Sunday for a double deep to the right-center gap (see video below). He has surprising pop for someone his size thanks to his simple, quick stroke. If you like OBP, Schrock is your guy as he carries an absurd 18-to-4 walks to strikeouts ratio on the young season and is always a tough out at the plate thanks to above average hand-eye coordination. A healthy and productive junior campaign will put him in contention for the top 5 rounds of the draft, if he can convince scouts he can develop a more reliable glove at second. For now, I would think he’s more of a 6th – 8th round guy.”

    PDowdy

    26 Jun 15 at 10:07 am

  14. Updated status per my tracking notes:
    – Not yet signed but expected to: #3 Wiseman,
    – Not signed and not likely to: #14 Lamieux, #23 Rash, #31 Sprengel, and all 7 HS picks from 34-40th round
    – Might still sign if thrown enough cash: #26 Harmening
    – Signed per draft tracker but I can’t find proof: #32 DiNatale

    Everyone else I have “proof” of signing either from MLB, twitter, press releases or their assignment to GCL/Auburn.

    Todd Boss

    26 Jun 15 at 10:26 am

  15. I have them at $355k of “extra bonus money’ right now. I wonder if Wiseman is going to cost them a chunk of that, and then they could throw the rest at either Lemieux, Rash or Harmening. Somehow I think Rash is not really signable; he’s barely pitched and may think he can improve his draft stock. Or maybe not if he gets $200k.

    Todd Boss

    26 Jun 15 at 10:27 am

  16. Watson has already been quoted as saying he’s honoring his committment to Loyola Marymount. Not that its worth anything … and it isn’t like LMU is a major baseball power.

    Todd Boss

    26 Jun 15 at 10:28 am

  17. Schrock; definitely fought through injuries this year and last, which makes his batting line even better.

    thanks for the scouting reports though. All three (these two plus MLB’s) seem to be consistent.

    Todd Boss

    26 Jun 15 at 10:29 am

  18. Good updates and good scoop on Schrock. I’m still not convinced that he was worth the big bonus, but considering the lack of middle infielders in the organization behind Turner, Difo, and Bostick, let’s hope he develops.

    Todd, do you have confirmation on the #20 pick, catcher John Clay Reeves out of Rice? He’s a senior, so he doesn’t have a lot of options, but I had not seen anything that he had signed, and he isn’t on the Auburn or GCL roster. He seemed to have a reasonably good bat for a catcher for a pick that low, particularly for someone from a high-level program.

    KW

    26 Jun 15 at 10:49 am

  19. IT is definitely nice to have 3 separate reports on a player all match up. Doesn’t happen that way all that often.

    I think Wiseman may take the slot bonus assigned. I’m not sure he is someone they go way overslot to get. None of the other draftees were overslot guys. If Stevenson went that far underslot is it possible Wiseman goes under too?

    $355k should be enough to land Wiseman and at least Harmening. I wonder about Lemuiex though. Seems like if they took him in the 14th they have at least the thought of going hard to sign him.

    PDowdy

    26 Jun 15 at 11:07 am

  20. PDowdy

    26 Jun 15 at 11:08 am

  21. I agree on Schrock KW. I could see going overslot but $400k extra was a bit much. Maybe other negotiations have broken down to where they know who is and who isn’t going to sign and they really wanted to land him so they used the remaining chunk of bonus money to make it happen but $400k could have gone a long way towards one of the HS players.

    PDowdy

    26 Jun 15 at 11:10 am

  22. Physically, Wiseman is right about the same size as Rendon . . . and den Dekker. His level of power development likely will determine how far he goes. His high strikeouts are a red flag, but not a deal-breaker. (See Taylor, Michael A.) I think Wiseman was one of the better power-potential prospects available where the Nats picked, but we’ll have to see how he develops. All in all, I like his MLB potential better than Stevenson’s.

    KW

    26 Jun 15 at 11:34 am

  23. The one thing that worries me about Wiseman, which was clearly evident to me during the CWS, is his susceptability to high pitches. He gets so low in his batting stance that he literally cannot hit pitches at the upper end of his zone. He swings under them, misses them easily. I wonder if others see what I see and if he’ll have to make some adjustments.

    Todd Boss

    26 Jun 15 at 11:37 am

  24. The Nats were able to trade that overslot 2nd round pick signing of Renda into a serviceable bullpen arm David Carpenter) with two more years of team control after this season. So while the pick may not have seemed to make sense at the time, it certainly wasn’t wasted.

    John C.

    26 Jun 15 at 11:48 am

  25. I think I take Stevenson to be a guy who will make the majors because his floor is pretty high with his speed and glove but Wiseman has more upside. He could bust very easily too though.

    Stevenson looks like your prototypical 4th outfielder but could be a Kevin Keirmaier type of player if he hits.

    PDowdy

    26 Jun 15 at 3:00 pm

  26. JohnC: a 2nd rounder who is basically an org guy from the moment he is drafted is a fail. David Carpenter is not exactly what i’d call a “great return.” He’s a right handed middle reliever. There’s hundreds of guys like Carpenter in the minors who, if given the chance, could probably match what he’s doing.

    There’s a reason Carpenter is on his 5th team. He’s been waived, he’s been DFA’d. He’s been traded for no-name minor leaguers and for managers of all things.

    Sorry if i’m not overwhelmed by what Renda turned out to be. I am of the opinion that every team’s first and second round picks should be expected to be successes.

    Todd Boss

    29 Jun 15 at 9:18 am

  27. Rizzo’s 2nd selections have been underwhelming quite often. Jeff Kobernus, Jake Johansen, Tony Renda, Destin Hood, Sammy Solis, Jordan ZImmermann, Jake Smolinski, Andrew Suarez, Blake Perkins and Andrew Stevenson are the 2nd round picks under Rizzo.

    Renda and Hood don’t look like they will contribute much. Johansen is struggling even as a relierver, Kobernus is no more than a AAAA utility guy. Obviously Suarez didn’t sign. Sammy Solis was a decent pick but has had injury troubles but till could contribute. Jake Smolinski seems to be AAAA type as well.

    We all know Jordan has been a great draft pick.

    SO that is 1 hit. 3 total misses. a couple utility guys who most likely are only AAAA. A guy who now profiles as a loogy and I can’t make any judgement on Suarez, Perkins or Stevenson at this time.

    Not great.

    PDowdy

    29 Jun 15 at 3:33 pm

  28. Totally agree on his 2nd round history.

    Todd Boss

    29 Jun 15 at 8:14 pm

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