Nationals Arm Race

"… the reason you win or lose is darn near always the same – pitching.” — Earl Weaver

Papelbon for Pivetta: good trade, bad karma?


Hopefully, this won't be what we remember him for.  Photo via (yes its a site)

Hopefully, this won’t be what we remember him for. Photo via (yes its a site)

So, by now we’ve all heard the news.  The Nats acquired disgruntled Phillies closer Jonathan Papelbon for 2013 4th rounder Nick Pivetta, newly promoted to AA.

On the plus side, the Phillies pick up all of his remaining 2015 salary (roughly $4.5M), and Papelbon pre-negotiated his 2016 option at a slightly lower figure ($11M with $3M deferred).  This is no 2-month rental; this is a strategic decision to go with him for the next two years.  So in that respect, what the Nats get versus what they gave up is pretty durn good.  Pivetta is a decent prospect who had a great first half for Potomac and just earned a promotion to AA (where he’s gotten hit around a bit in his first couple of starts).  But in terms of what the team is giving up, Pivetta is a “minor prospect” (mostly on the outside of our top 10 lists) and is perhaps no better than 13th or so on our starter depth chart (just off the top of my head, Scherzer, Strasburg, Zimmermann, Fister, Gonzalez, Ross, Roark, Cole, Jordan, Hill, Treinen, Espino, Voth and Giolito ahead of him), so the Nats trade from a surplus/depth for a position of need.

As a side-effect of the acquisition, AAA catcher Dan Butler was DFA’d to make room on the 40-man roster. Butler has been struggling in AAA and may pass through waivers, but if he doesn’t suddenly the Nats have zero catcher depth on the active roster.  So that’s a risk i’m surprised they took (if it were me, I could have named several other guys I would have risked versus Butler first).

My concern with this deal is more on the non-quantifiable side.  What message does this send to your team?  Drew Storen has been *excellent* this year, has remade his mechanics and (as noted elsewhere) has the 2nd best ERA of any reliever in the game over the last two years.  He’s been just as good a closer as Papelbon this year, and for his troubles gets demoted out of the closer spot.  Storen’s future compensation is *directly* tied to the number of saves (however arbitrary and useless that statistic may be) he earns, and now the team has told him “hey, we know you’ve been awesome but too bad you’re no longer going to have the opportunity to earn saves and therefore we’ll argue against you in arbitration to that end.”  Its no wonder Storen was immediately quoted as wanting to “explore his options” with his representation.

Lets also just say that it would not surprise this observer in the least if Storen’s performance fell off a cliff in the coming months.

You can argue that winning creates clubhouse chemistry; that’s your perogative.  You can talk about how the old Yankees “25 men, 25 cabs” had no problem winning and you can disclaim the chemistry factors that seemed to be in play with recent teams like the 2013 Red Sox or last year’s Royals.  Fair enough.  You can make the argument that these guys are all highly paid and should just accept whatever role is given to them … but lets be honest here; MLB players are human, they have egos, and (especially in the case of a reliever) they want to be the closer.  More to the point, when they do everything management asks of them and still get replaced, its hard not to blame them for being disgruntled.  This isn’t like when the Nats demoted John Lannan: Storen didn’t get beat out in spring training; he’s been absolutely stellar for the past two years.

Is this yet another reaction to Storen’s post-season record?  Lets all say it together: “short sample sizes.”  Storen has a grand total of 5 1/3 post-season innings.  Papelbon’s numbers in the post season are great (a 1.00 ERA in 27 innings), but he hasn’t pitched in October in 6 years.  Clayton Kershaw has a 5+ ERA in the post-season and nobody’s talking about replacing him.  You look for excellence in the regular season and hope it plays out in the post-season.

Two years ago, the management over-reacted to Storen’s post-season performance by over-paying (and burning a first round pick) on a closer in Rafael Soriano who, it should be noted, was himself demoted from the closer role in favor of the man he replaced by the time the deal was done.  Lets just hope that we’re not standing here in September of 2016 with Papelbon and his waning velocity ballooning to a 4+ ERA in his walks year with the ever-steady Storen right back in the same role…

I would have much preferred the team find some middle-to-later innings relievers to strengthen things in the 7th and 8th innings and not upset what Storen has established.  But it isn’t my team.  I just hope Storen can take the high road (much like Tanner Roark has been forced to do) and goes back to being a team player.

A few other excellent takes on the trade I recommend:

Post-publishing update: Joe Posnanski wrote a column 2 weeks onward, crucifying Rizzo and this trade (calling it “The Worst trade of the Season”) for its intangible impact on the team, echoing many of the same sentiments expressed here.


33 Responses to 'Papelbon for Pivetta: good trade, bad karma?'

Subscribe to comments with RSS or TrackBack to 'Papelbon for Pivetta: good trade, bad karma?'.

  1. Dislike the trade. It doesn’t improve the 9th, limits flexibility, adds payroll and who knows what it does for clubhouse chemistry. I agree with 99% of your post. #teamstoren

    The one disagreement is on dfa’ing butler. That was the best move. Severino is a perfectly suitable emergency catcher as is Lerud, so those guys can be summoned and added to the 40 man when needed. Essentially, this kicks the 40 man discussion down the road until we need that 3rd catcher again.

    Andrew R

    29 Jul 15 at 9:52 am

  2. Good player, bad guy.
    You pretty much HAVE to trade Storen at the end of the season now.
    I also agree with everything you said.

    The ’25 players 25 cabs’ line was about the ’70’s Red Sox. Used later whenever needed.

    Mark L

    29 Jul 15 at 9:59 am

  3. 25 players/25 cabs; always thought that was a Yankee thing during the Reggie Jackson tumultuous years. Ironic given what just went down with him in Cooperstown. But thanks for the historical clarification.

    Todd Boss

    29 Jul 15 at 10:14 am

  4. AndrewR; on Butler: I didn’t like removing him as a short term safety net. If Lobaton gets hurt tomorrow, what do the nats do? I would have much preferred keeping Butler and dfa’ing someone like Erik Davis who is clearly not in the teams’ plans any longer. No argument on Butler versus Severino necessarily … but why force that move prematurely?

    That being said, maybe the team has already made this determination internally and made the move as per your thoughts. Totally fair assessment.

    Todd Boss

    29 Jul 15 at 10:17 am

  5. As I see it, this trade isn’t about Storen. It’s about Aaron Barrett, Blake Treinen, Sammy Solis and, to a lesser extent, Tanner Roark. Storen has been excellent, but the middle relief has been spotty at best. Rivero has impressed. Janssen has come around. Even Thornton has improved (his velocity is up a tick or two from earlier in the season) – although the team has been very careful about using Thornton to avoid overtaxing his arm at his age. No, this trade doesn’t improve the 9th. But it sure as hell improves the 8th, and by extension the 7th and 6th as well.

    I’m not into psychoanalysis of players – and I think that “mental issues” are an easy crutch to explain stuff we don’t understand or indeed is a result of random [stuff]. Not that it doesn’t exist and isn’t important, but it’s unknowable and complete speculation. I think that Storen’s struggles in 2013 had a lot more to do with his mechanics than his attitude. He got his mechanics straightened out and actually learned how to at least try to hold baserunners and became great again.

    Having Storen and Papelbon at the back end of the bullpen is the Nats’ own version of Miller and Betances at the back end of the Yankees bullpen. I don’t like Papelbon, but the Nats have had players that I don’t like before (Paul LoDuca, Elijah Dukes, Lastings Milledge, Felipe Lopez) and I’ve managed to put that aside. I don’t doubt that I can do that with the Nats and Papelbon as well.

    John C.

    29 Jul 15 at 10:37 am

  6. Yep, they must have decided that Severino is the next man up. And is Lerud that much worse than Butler. Erik Davis is surely gone soon also. Also didn’t Leon just get released if we need an old friend?

    Andrew R

    29 Jul 15 at 10:38 am

  7. Yeah I remember seeing Leon getting DFA’d … and I thought I saw Solano getting released too earlier this year. I think Leon got outrighted to AAA New Orleans by Miami. So the nats had a chance to claim him and did not. is the DFA limbo tracker, an excellent little tool. But Leon (despite beign listed as in DFA status on is not on the DFA tracker, so maybe he’s already been outrighted?

    Todd Boss

    29 Jul 15 at 11:18 am

  8. Any idea how Burriss was out-righted without passing through waivers? I was concerned we would lose him?

    Andrew R

    29 Jul 15 at 11:22 am

  9. Burriss: That did seem awfully fast didn’t it? Unless he was DFA’d “quietly” a while ago and just passed on through?

    Todd Boss

    29 Jul 15 at 11:29 am

  10. Morse and Latos to the Dodgers. Not sure where Mikey will actually play in LA-LA Land, though; might have been just a salary dump.

    My thoughts are mostly in line with John’s. The Nats went from shaky in the 8th to having the best 8th-inning guy in baseball, whichever one of them it is (probably Storen). And it’s not just the 8th. There have been two or three games over the last couple of weeks where the Nats were either tied or one run down in the 9th, and Matt elected not to have Storen pitch the top of the inning. Some of those got out of hand quickly, including the Dodger game that got Treinen demoted. Anyway, we can now use our “noncloser” in those spots.

    I’m not really trusting Barrett or Roark right now. Janssen seems to be rounding into what was promised, though, and Rivero looks very confident out there. I’m guessing they will option Solis for Pimplebrain’s 25-man spot.

    Yeah, I don’t like him, either, but maybe he’s just misunderstood. The Nats certainly would have had good clubhouse intel on him from Werth.

    Are there any deals left for the Nats? MLB Trade Rumors still has them looking at guys like Parra and Venable. That report has me wondering about Span’s condition, as there’s no need for a 5th OF of that level if Span comes back.

    I’m still not trusting that RZim will hold up, but he was better than I expected last night. But geez, guys, start winning some games!


    29 Jul 15 at 12:35 pm

  11. Storen == best 8th inning guy in baseball. Agreed, *if* he doesn’t take a mental dump thanks to his undeserved demotion. When the Nats got Soriano to demote him, he had all winter to recover his ego and he still went from a 2.37ERA to a 4.52 ERA. Now he has 24 hours until his next game. And, if you read between the lines of my post, I kind of expect him to do just that.

    Why would we replace Taylor right now, if Span is out extendendly? Taylor has been on fire the last week. 2 homers, 3SBs, .333 BA and a hefty OPS.

    Todd Boss

    29 Jul 15 at 1:49 pm

  12. Wow, seeing what the Reds and Padres wanted for closers makes me like the Pap deal even more. The Pods made trades right and left that they shouldn’t have made over the winter, now they’re overvaluing their assets as the clock ticks. But really, they shouldn’t trade Kimbrel if they think they have any chance to get good over the next couple of years. They really should get whatever they can for Upton and other expiring contracts, though. The Reds are obviously overvaluing 1.5 years of Chapman as well. They’re not going to be good next year, and they really should move him. I don’t really care if they don’t, though.

    For Pap, the Nats gave up one guy, Pivetta, who as Todd noted was well down the Nats’ pecking order and more than likely will end up a reliever. Is Chapman *that* much more valuable than Pap? Nope.

    Yeah, Storen will be somewhat peeved. We all would be. Do the Nats try to sooth him by trying to talk extension now? Do the Nats really want to extend him?

    And yeah, Pap has attitude. We were told that Escobar did as well. Haven’t heard a peep about that this season. He’s fun to watch. In fact, it’s interesting how much edgier the Nats are getting. Fiery Scherzer is now the face of the pitching staff instead of the laconic Stras and JZimm. Harper is the indisputable leader on the field, not the stoic Face of the Franchise. And now we get an edgy closer as well. Is this by design? Is this the edge that more reflects Matt Williams? Or what Rizzo has wanted all along? Or is it just more by chance? And, most of all, will it make any difference in the postseason?


    29 Jul 15 at 5:57 pm

  13. When the Soriano signing was announced a couple years ago, I remember reading there were rumors it was an ownership move rather than Rizzo. Made sense at the time, because Soriano didn’t really seem like a Rizzo guy, and supposedly Ted Lerner wanted a championship before he died and lots of people lost confidence in Storen after his Game 5 LDS meltdown. I certainly could be wrong, but this Papelbon trade has that same feel to me, mainly because it doesn’t entirely make sense (we didn’t need a closer), and Rizzo’s moves normally make sense to me even when I disagree with them. After his Game 2 LDS hiccup last postseason, I can only imagine that some people have even less confidence in Storen, despite his excellent regular season this year (regular seasons never having been his problem). Maybe I’m wrong, though. Maybe this is all Rizzo.

    Regarding Storen’s reaction, I hope I’m right about this, but I don’t think he’ll implode this time, because there are distinctions from the 2012-13 offseason. Then, he was singlehandedly responsible for blowing a two run lead in a deciding game of a series that was his first playoff experience, then saw the team replace him before throwing another pitch. This time, he allowed a tying run in Game 2 of an LDS that went four games last postseason, and that the Nats lost for multiple reasons, coupled with the fact that he came back immediately this year and pitched brilliantly. Difference: last time, even he might have questioned his ability to bounce back; this year, he already has bounced back.

    Of course, I may just be inventing reasons to be optimistic…


    29 Jul 15 at 7:27 pm

  14. I think Soriano was on the Lerners, but this was Rizzo. After a day to get used to it, I think this move both was, and wasn’t, about Storen. First and foremost it was to bring in another high quality bullpen arm (not about Storen). But the fact that it was a closer, and not McGee or Smith or someone without an established closing history, suggests to me that Rizzo isn’t completely comfortable with Storen as his only closing option in the playoffs, small sample or not. I can’t prove it, nor can I shake the feeling that it was part of the calculus.

    Lost in all this Storen und Drang is that Jannsen has been excellent lately, so if he has returned to his Blue Jay form, the pen looks ok now (although I wouldn’t scream if they got another good arm, especially a lefty).

    But even though Pap seems like a Poop, if he performs well, I expect I’ll be fine with him, and if he struggles, I’ll probably despise him. But hey, whatever.

    Bigger thing is that they need to start playing better. The playoffs are far from guaranteed. And I would still like them to pick up a good bat, preferably a LH who can play 1b or a corner OF.


    29 Jul 15 at 8:04 pm

  15. Good grief, the Twitterverse is exploding. Carlos Gomez to the Mets for Wheeler and Flores (and maybe Lagares); Braves, Dodgers and Marlins in a major trade with Alex Wood, Latos, Hector Olivera (don’t know to whom) and god knows what else.

    Meanwhile, back in Natsville, Bryce for President. Feels like they’d be 10 games under .500 without him.

    And Werth looks old. Not at bat. In the field, running. Just slow moving, like he needs a good yoga program or something.


    29 Jul 15 at 9:21 pm

  16. For whatever it’s worth, Papelbon is sure saying all the right things:

    Love the fact that he called Drew before the trade went through. He was also chatting up Drew in the ‘pen last night. Drew then went out and dominated. Janssen looked strong again, too.

    The cure to what ails the Nats: 1-800-BHARPER. Wow. Only 900 feet or so of HRs. Time for him to get super hot again for a couple of weeks.

    Had to laugh at the Mets this morning hearing that their big trade fell through. The Dodgers just got a lot scarier, though, although admittedly, Latos and Wood are pretty average. “Average” is a lot better than LA had at the back end of its rotation, though. They also got Johnson and Morse. Not sure how they’re going to add that many guys to their 25-man. Olivera should become a significant part of the Braves’ rebuild.


    30 Jul 15 at 5:59 am

  17. That Dodger trade was weird: Marlins just dump $$ not get a prospect for 2016, which isn’t a surprise, but also lose Morse for 2016; I like Alex Wood but he doesn’t seem LAD’s type, so I wouldn’t be shocked to see him packaged with Holmes or someone for Price; and ATL, who is dismantling everyone, trades a top prospect a 30 yr old now player.

    I was shocked to see the Mets deal fall through, I went to bed hearing it was done, and Flores was crying on the field. I’ll bet they go with the other CarGo for Wheeler now, seems hard to stop here after all the leaks.

    I thought Philly did reasonably well in the Hamels trade.

    Bryce’s second homer was one of the farthest I’ve seen him hit. Anyone get an estimated distance?


    30 Jul 15 at 7:01 am

  18. You know, if Papelbon “did all the right stuff” and was concilatory to Storen, that could have completely remade this narrative in my mind. That WP link was heartening.

    Todd Boss

    30 Jul 15 at 10:01 am

  19. Harper’s 2nd homer: had it only at 420 feet! I could not believe that estimate; it looked like an absolute monster. Santangelo couldn’t stop talking about it.

    I *hate* the Atl-LA deal if it eventually goes through; adding both latos and Wood to the LA rotation makes them that much more difficult to beat in the post season.

    Todd Boss

    30 Jul 15 at 10:02 am

  20. I thought it looked like the second HR landed within 15-20 feet of the “465” sign. I wasn’t sure if that was the distance or the section. It sure seemed to be in that neighborhood of distance. Bryce hasn’t quite been squaring up balls since the All-Star break, but he seems to have remedied that issue.


    30 Jul 15 at 10:13 am

  21. On Harper’s HR, it was rocked but I think the distance calculation includes the arc – although it hit in the upper deck, it was by that time moving much more vertically (down, obviously) than horizontally. Still … crushed.

    John C.

    30 Jul 15 at 10:55 am

  22. I still don’t really get ATL’s side of that deal, though. Even assuming Olivera is good, they are dismantling for a 2017 start and he’ll be 32 by then, and they give up Wood plus a top 100 prospect, even one whose luster is down a bit. And they get a comp pick, I guess.

    Just seems closer to the Markakis deal than any of their other ones.

    I am not sure Wood stays with LAD. He’s good not great, and they like their stars out there.


    30 Jul 15 at 11:23 am

  23. AND Atlanta gave up Peraza, who would have made a lot more sense for them over the longer term than the aging Olivera. I don’t get it at all. The Dodgers seem to have made out like bandits and with Wood and Peraza have gotten solid, cheap young pieces who could be with them a long time. Having ATL down will help the Nats in the division, but the WS road through Chavez Ravine just got tougher.


    30 Jul 15 at 11:56 am

  24. I’m sure Wood stays in LA; look at their rotation changes in the last week. They went from Kershaw-Greinke-Anderson-Bolsinger and either an unhealthy Beachy or the youngester Thomas to this juggernaut: Kershaw, Greinke, Anderson, Latos and Wood? That’s a pretty good improvement. That’s two ones, a 2 in Wood and at least a 3 in Latos.

    Is that a better rotation than the Nats now? Might be unless Strasburg remembers how to be an Ace.

    Todd Boss

    30 Jul 15 at 2:29 pm

  25. I’d say LAD’s rotation is better than ours, but primarily because of the strength of their top 2. I don’t think Wood is a 2; I’d say a 4, maybe a 3 if he recovers his K rate.

    But it seems like you are right that he is staying with LAD now that Price is a Blue Jay.

    Where does Lind go, I wonder.


    30 Jul 15 at 2:43 pm

  26. Wally you’re a harsh grader. Wood has a career 3.10 ERA and 119 ERA+. He had a 2.78 ERA and a k/9 across 170 innings last year; that’s solid.

    Todd Boss

    30 Jul 15 at 2:57 pm

  27. Yeah, could be, but I kind of look at it like this:
    #1 = top 10-15 pitchers
    #2 = 15-35
    #3 = 35-60
    #4 = 60-100
    #5 = 100-200

    So when I say he isn’t a #2, I just mean I don’t think he’s one of the top 35 pitchers. For us, probably only Scherzer is a #1, and I’d have Stras and JZ as #2s, albeit near the top of that bracket.

    Partly it’s due to Wood not demonstrating the ability to put up 200 IPs. His rate stats make him a solid #3 in my mind, but then you have to decide how durable you think he is going to be, which is why I came out where I did.


    30 Jul 15 at 6:47 pm

  28. Definition of a #1: I could swear I’ve typed this up at some point but couldn’t find it quickly. Maybe it was in an old “ceiling post.” Yup here it was:

    Now, keep in mind this was dated pre 2011 season, so some of the names used as examples are wrong now. But we’re close. I started with Aces being a bit more lenient (top 15-20) instead of top 10-15) and then just working my way down from there. I still think both Scherzer and Strasburg are #1s (with a caveat on Strasburg’s 2015), Zimmermann a 2, Gio a 3 and Fister a 4.

    #1 starter is one of the best 15-20 pitchers in the league, someone who you’re genuinely surprised if he performs badly on a given day, mentioned in Cy Young conversations. Verlander, Lincecum, Halladay.
    #2 starter: a slight step down from your elite, but still a reliable starter. The “robin” to the ace’s “batman.” I’m thinking Matt Cain, Chad Billingsly, Cole Hamels, Clay Buchholz as examples. Not the best guy on their rotation but a great #2 guy.
    #3: better than your league average pitcher, someone who is solid, consistent innings eater and who routinely gives you quality starts but not much more than that. I’m thinking someone like a Jonathan Sanchez, Derek Holland, Edwin Jackson, someone like that.
    #4: is basically someone defined as someone who’s a slight step above the back-of-the-rotation guy, a mlb veteran guy who knows how to pitch but doesn’t have the best stuff to really go much beyond. John Lannan is a great example of a #4 starter. Freddie Garcia, John Lackey, Jon Garland, Jason Marquis are other examples.
    #5: just good enough to fill out your rotation. Starters at the back end who all you’re hoping for is 6 innings and keeping your team in the game. On our team, Livan Hernandez, Tom Gorzelanny, Craig Stammen in past years.

    Todd Boss

    31 Jul 15 at 12:38 pm

  29. If I switch to your definition, can you change the picture or new post it? I am good with the Papelbon crotch grab at this point.

    Mets are making this a race. I’ve stayed away from most Nats blog during this series, since I can do without all the self-flagellation we do, but I can imagine Matty is getting reamed a fair bit. For my part, I don’t think he is a good in-game manager, and his BP usage is probably hurting to a degree but the criticism is usually overblown. I’ll almost never criticize a move like leaving in Ross to face Duda, or even the intentional walk to Cespedes, but I do knock him for the most basic of things: I’d like to see our best pitchers pitch the most often, especially in a series like this. So two one-run losses without seeing Storen or Papelbon just doesn’t cut it for me.

    But much more importantly, it starts as always with the offense. Not going to win many games at this pace. I understand that the injured guys have just gotten back and it takes time, but it’s soon getting to the point where the reasons, legit or otherwise, just aren’t going to matter.

    Last point is, the Nats came in three games up with the Mets coming off all that trade deadline embarrassment and crushing loss to SD, yet we seemed to be the tight ones. Harp getting tossed; Zim showing uncharacteristic anger when Escobar didn’t tag on his liner in the 1st inning yesterday, … Today will be interesting.


    2 Aug 15 at 1:31 pm

  30. I’m not panicking with the series sweep this weekend; we were away from home going against a hot team, against their 3 best hurlers, in 3 games where the Mets had the starting pitching advantage in all three games.

    They have two easy home series to get healthy on before a tough west coast trip, then another series of easy home games.

    Todd Boss

    3 Aug 15 at 9:26 am

  31. We poke fun at Boz all the time, but he is quite right about a key point: DC is still in adolescence as a baseball town. These type of “lost weekends” happen fairly regularly in a real pennant race. It seems like the Bosox and Yanks have swept each other a zillion times at key moments over the years. It’s baseball. It’s a LONG season.

    A little cause for concern? Sure. The hitting is nowhere near where it needs to be, which is why I was begging for a bat at the deadline. Rendon is back and hitting the ball hard, though. RZim, despite a poor rehab stint, has also hit it hard and got it out of the park. Werth concerns me, however, and obviously MW as well, as he quickly moved him down the lineup. He looks no better than Clint Robinson staggering around LF, either.

    On the mound, Ross is obviously the real deal, to go into a hostile environment in a pennant race and pitch like that. That tells me a billion times more than glowing reports from AA. I think he is going to get shut down sooner or later, though. As with Wally, I have no beef with Ross going back out for the 7th. Duda is en fuego, and perhaps the Nats should have done more to pitch around him than they did.

    My issue with bullpen usage is that neither Storen or Papelbon saw the field on Friday or Saturday as the Nats lost both games while their best relievers sat. I hate “the book” protocol on closer usage.

    So on we go. The Mets have been terrible away from Citi, and the Nats get to come home. We’ve always wondered if the Nats might be better in the postseason if they had been pushed more in the previous 162. Perhaps now we’ll find out.


    3 Aug 15 at 9:34 am

  32. I’ll do a quickie little post on the last 16 games of this team and the ridiculous gauntlet of pitching they’ve had to face.

    bullpen usage: cannot disagree. Matt Williams; 2014 Manager of the Year!

    Todd Boss

    3 Aug 15 at 9:47 am

  33. If you’re still on this thread:–the-mets-are-on-fire-and-trying-to-validate-themselves–like-so-many-others-064151636-mlb.html

    This is Jeff Passan killing Matt Williams’ decision making this weekend.

    Todd Boss

    3 Aug 15 at 12:48 pm

Leave a Reply