Nationals Arm Race

"… the reason you win or lose is darn near always the same – pitching.” — Earl Weaver

Obligatory 2017 Prediction Piece


I see that everyone’s already jumped the gun on predictions in the comments of the previous post.  So I’ll put it out here:

Predictions for each division:

  • NL East: Washington again but its close
  • NL Central: Cubs by a fair margin
  • NL West: Dodgers by a hair
  • NL Wild Cards: I think its San Francisco and the NY Mets again.

I know this is exactly what happened last year … but what has really changed in the NL?  Miami is significantly weakened from last year, Philly is still a couple years away, and Atlanta’s rotation looks pretty good … if the year was 2005.  I do think Washington holds off the Mets for the division, simply because the Mets’ arms just can’t hold up like ours can.

So, it seems to me we’re going to have precisely the same NLDS again.  Us versus the Dodgers.  Can we figure out how to beat them this time?

NL Champs: hard to root against the Cubs again.


  • AL East: Boston
  • AL Central: Cleveland by a lot
  • AL West: Houston
  • AL Wild Cards: Toronto and Texas

More of the same but some shuffling of the deck chairs.  The Orioles take a step back and Houston takes a big step forward.

AL Champs: Cleveland again.

So we have a WS rematch.  And this time, Cleveland comes out on top thanks to a couple of untimely injuries with the Cubs (perhaps to their aging pitching squad).


Written by Todd Boss

April 3rd, 2017 at 9:30 am

14 Responses to 'Obligatory 2017 Prediction Piece'

Subscribe to comments with RSS or TrackBack to 'Obligatory 2017 Prediction Piece'.

  1. Oh, it’s easy to “root against” the Cubs, but much harder to bet against them! But hey, the Nats already have a half-game lead over them for best record in the NL . . .

    Too much predictive stuff from me already in the last set of comments. FWIW, this is the best team the Nats have ever had. What they can accomplish will remain to be seen.


    3 Apr 17 at 9:50 am

  2. Also, Todd, the big difference between the Nats and the Mets is the quality of the lineups. The Nats’ lineup is much better. If pitching staff health is similar (and there are reasons to prefer either pitching staff from a health standpoint), the Nats ought to come out ahead based upon the quality and depth of the lineup.


    3 Apr 17 at 10:53 am

  3. Nats v Mets; definitely true. Nats have vastly improved their lineup over last year. We’re basically replacing empty production from Revere, Espinosa and Taylor with full years of healthy production of Turner and Eaton. That’s a huge win win.

    Todd Boss

    3 Apr 17 at 10:58 am

  4. Wow, just saw on MLBTR where the total Padre 25-man is making $33M this season, while the Pads still owe $34M this season of dead money to stiffs like BJ-Melvin and Shields. That’s unbelievable. Can they be relegated to AAA for not trying? And what would it take to get Preller to send us Wil Myers to go with Turner & Ross?


    3 Apr 17 at 12:52 pm

  5. Harper just homered …. and they put up the most amazing stat. He’s now hit five opening day homers. He’s played in 5 opening days. He hit 2 in 2013, then one each in 2015,2016,2017.

    Pretty amazing. I guess he gets jacked up for Opening day too!

    Todd Boss

    3 Apr 17 at 3:02 pm

  6. How about Adam Lind!

    Todd Boss

    3 Apr 17 at 3:22 pm

  7. Lind as a PH before today: .309/.389/.532, with five HRs. Make it six. Whether he plays much for Zim or not, he’s a great addition to the bench.


    3 Apr 17 at 5:28 pm

  8. Nats media predictions:

    Kick Ladson out of the dressing room!


    3 Apr 17 at 5:45 pm

  9. Great time at the park yesterday! It’s only one game, of course, but boy did Treinen look good as the closer. And how about Dusty using, gasp!, advanced matchup statistics to make the key move while Mattingly was apparently stading around with his thumb stuck somewhere the the sun doesn’t shine. If Edison Volquez is the new Marlins “ace,” they are in for a LONG season, not to mention some long games as he screws around on the mound the whole time.

    Karl Kolchak

    4 Apr 17 at 12:06 pm

  10. As for predictions, it should be pretty obvious from the smell of the Fish’s rotation that they are no threat, nor are the Braves with their 110 year old starting pitchers.
    The Phillies are improving and might challenge .500. That leaves the Mets, of course, who I think have too many injury concerns and not enough firepower.

    If Strasburg can just stay healthy and Harper rebounds, the Nats could be a real threat in October. Their 1-2-3 starting pitching punch combined with very strong lineup could compete with anyone.

    KW–I thought idiot Ladson had retired. What the heck is he basing his 84 wins prediction on, merely the fact the it is an odd numbered year? You can get better analysis from the guy pounding too many Bud Lites at your local sports bar.

    Karl Kolchak

    4 Apr 17 at 12:25 pm

  11. Random thoughts on the way to 162-0 . . .

    — Which is better news, that Zim got two hits, or that Treinen looks very much like a top-tier closer?

    — Boz just pointed out that the Nats control Treinen through ’20, Solis through ’21, and Glover through ’22. Meanwhile, the one who walked, Melancon, got rocked in his first Giant appearance. I don’t wish him ill, but I also thought the warranty on him would run out well before a four-year contract would. Also, note that the Cubbie bullpen didn’t get the job done in their first game. If they have chinks in their armor, that’s one of them.

    — The Turner-Eaton show is going to be fun, at least if Dusty lets them stay together at the top of the order. And are there any more questions about whether Trea can play shortstop?

    — About the only downer is that Werth looked old, particularly at the plate. He did have a nice catch. But he couldn’t even make good contact against some not-great arms.

    — Lind, Heisey, and Drew all have phenomenal numbers as pinch hitters, and now 25 PH homers among them. (Taylor is 1 for 20, although the one was a homer.)

    — Very pleased to see the strong start from Stras. He didn’t have the usual K total, but it looked like he was pitching more to contact and trying to stay in the game longer. And the Fish have some quality bats (pitchers, no; hitters, yes).

    — Is there any way for Bryce to teleport back to 2014 and homer in the one opening day game where he didn’t? He sure looks locked in, but then he did last April, so we’ll see how things hold.

    — And of course Murph had two hits and a vital lead-extending RBI.


    4 Apr 17 at 12:39 pm

  12. Karl, if you put the Met pitchers with the Marlin lineup, that might be a dangerous team (if Stanton says healthy). Failing that, each squad will have some deficiencies.

    Also, Thor left his start yesterday with a blister. With the Met pitchers, it always seems to be something . . . thank goodness!


    4 Apr 17 at 12:54 pm

  13. I cannot believe Ladson predicts 84 wins. Thats 11 fewer victories than last year. That means in a round about way he thinks the team will be 11 WAR weaker this year versus last. Does he think the team bus is going to crash and knock out half the starters for the year?

    Todd Boss

    4 Apr 17 at 1:08 pm

  14. […] a quick look back.  I did the obligatory seasonal prediction piece in early April 2017; how did I […]

Leave a Reply