Nationals Arm Race

"… the reason you win or lose is darn near always the same – pitching.” — Earl Weaver

Predicting 9/1 callup and 40-man Roster moves


Will Brad Peacock continue his meteoric rise up the organization with a 9/1 callup? Photo

Davey Johnson has already called for them.  Jordan Zimmermann‘s innings limit necessitates one of them.  Livan‘s woes beg for one of them.  Who are they?  Starting Pitching prospects.  And when the calendar hits September 1st, the day MLB rosters can expand, we should be seeing a few of them make their way to the Nats roster.  We’re probably going to see guys already on the 40-man make appearances (Chris MarreroCorey Brown?), but who else?

But, the signings of Anthony Rendon and Matt Purke filled the two empty slots on the 40-man roster created by the trades of Jerry Hairston and Jason Marquis.  So if you believe reports that the Nats are calling up the likes of Steve Lombardozzi, Brad Peacock and Tom Milone (in addition to adding Stephen Strasburg back to the active roster for a September 6th or 7th re-debut), then we’ve got some 40-man moves to make.

Here’s my predictions on how the team will make room for 4 new 40-man players (remember, Strasburg is currently on the 60-day DL and does not count towards the 40 active players on the “40-man” roster).

  • Move Adam LaRoche and Cole Kimball to the 60-day DL.  These are procedural moves that could have been done weeks ago, but the team hasn’t had the need.  Both are clearly done for the season and can easily be moved off.
  • Move Doug Slaten to the 60-day dl.  We’ve heard very little news on Slaten since he was put on the DL, which means he’s probably not featuring in the team’s plans for 2011 and can be moved off the 40-man.  We may end up flat out releasing the guy too; he performed so badly this year in terms of WHIP and allowing inherited runners to score that the team certainly would go looking elsewhere for a loogy.  Update: he’s just starting to do rehab stints now; I’m guessing he’ll just be released upon finishing his rehab, as we did with Chad Gaudin.
  • Re-call Adam Carr to the majors, then 60-day DL him.  He’s been out since June and this procedural move would mean that nobody needs to be released.  We can add all these 60-day DL guys back to the 40-man once all our free agents and non-tenders go through.

If there are other non 40-man guys to consider adding, I don’ t know who they may be at this point.  Brad Meyers may be reaching an innings limit (based on analysis of his usage in AAA).  There don’t seem to be any relievers in AAA (Mandel, Wilkie?) worth calling up.  We have 2 catchers active and a third (Pudge) getting ready presumably to come off the DL, so we’re set there.

Who would get dumped off the 40-man if we needed to make space?  The leading candidate would have to be the enigmatic Garrett Mock, who has put up startling bad numbers at various levels this year.  Atahualpa Severino is another candidate; having spent 2 full years on the 40-man with exactly one day in the majors.

8 Responses to 'Predicting 9/1 callup and 40-man Roster moves'

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  1. There are actually two levels of the 40 man roster question – the “September roster” and the offseason roster. Because a large number of players in the system are going to be exposed to the Rule 5 draft this offseason if they’re not moved up. These include:

    Matt Antonelli, IF (AAA)
    Archie Gilbert, 1b (AA)
    Erik Komatsu, CF (AA, picked up in the Hairston trade)
    Steve Lombardozzi, IF (AAA)
    Shairon Martis, RHP (AA)
    Brad Meyers, RHP (AAA)
    Tom Milone, LHP (AAA)
    Tyler Moore, 1b (AA)
    Derek Norris, C (AA)
    Brad Peacock, RHP (AAA)
    Josh Smoker, RHP (A+)
    Jhonathan Solano, C (AAA)

    With Harper, Purke and Rendon taking up 40 man slots, it’s getting mighty crowded. Mock has actually posted some pretty decent numbers after converting to a full-time relief pitcher. Peacock, Lombardozzi and Milone probably get the call in September, because they’ll be on the 40 man eventually anyway. With Strasburg they’ll need four spots, but they get those by DL’ing Kimball, LaRoche and Carr and DFAing Slaten.

    John C.

    24 Aug 11 at 6:21 pm

  2. I would not bring up Corey Brown. His numbers are low at Syracuse. Interesting thought about Meyers. Most people assume he be up. Agree with all the moves you would make to make room.

    How did Carr make the 40 this season anyway?

    Sec 204 Row H Seat 7

    25 Aug 11 at 9:54 am

  3. Yeah, pre rule5 decisionsis going to be a whole other post (I have a draft of it but there’s no need to do it until we get closer to the date). The rule5 decisions are going to be tough as you say. I took a quick look though and we have so many FAs we may be ok; Pudge, Ankiel, Coffey, Livan, Wang, Cora, Nix and Gomes all immediately come off the 40-man the day FA starts. So that’s 8 spots immediately available for rule5 protectees. Past that you’re looking at dumping guys that can be dumped (Mock, Severino, Slaten, Bixler, Carr), and then making some non-tender decisions (Gorzelanny).

    Of your list, i’d have an awful hard time believing we’d consider protecting some of those guys. Gilbert, Martis, Smoker, Solano aren’t worth protecting b/c nobody’s going to take them in the MLB phase. The rest are mostly no-brainers.

    Todd Boss

    25 Aug 11 at 9:54 am

  4. I wouldn’t bring up Brown either; we have too many outfielders as it is to find time for one more. Here’s Meyer’s innings work load by year. 2007: 40 pro, ? amateur. 2008: 107. 2009: 136. 2010: 30. 2011 so far: 122. He had a nice progression til 2010. Now it seems he’ll only possibly reach his 2009 numbers.

    Carr (along with Severino) were 2009 rule5 protections, since they both looked worth protecting at the time. Now? Both probably pass through waivers but maybe not, especially since a claiming team doesn’t have to give up a 40-man spot to get em. So, they’ll probably stay until the team decides they’re future-less here.

    Todd Boss

    25 Aug 11 at 10:00 am

  5. I’ll bet Slaten is not DFA’ed at all, and in fact that he’s in the bullpen at Nats Park in September. He’d pitched OK inHagerstown… AND … he’s lefthanded. Rizzo won’t part with him that easily.

    Sec 314

    25 Aug 11 at 3:06 pm

  6. […] Zimmermann replacement for the upcoming Saturday 9/3 game.  This will require a 40-man move, with alternatives mentioned in this space last […]

  7. […] the 40-man if he calls up too many guys.  As I pointed out in this space, there’s clearly maneuvering room on the 40-man.  Not sure what the problem is.  If Rizzo is still obsessed with Garrett Mock, then […]

  8. […] players Lombardozzi and Brown.  Peacock and Lombardozzi require corresponding 40-man moves, and (based on past research) we may be seeing a DFA in the next couple days.  Update: I was almost correct with the required […]

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