Borrowing from my “Arbitration Tender Deadline” post from December 12th, here was my salary guesses for our seven Arbitration eligible players. Note, this was obviously done prior to the Gio Gonzalez trade and included a theoretical salary guess for Doug Slaten, despite my (correct) prediction at the time that he’d be non-tendered:
|Player||Current or 2011 Contract||2011||2012||2012 guess|
|Clippard, Tyler||1 yr/$0.443M (11)||$443,000||Arb 1||$1,700,000|
|Flores, Jesus||1 yr/$0.75M (11)||$750,000||Arb 3||$800,000|
|Gorzelanny, Tom||1 yr/$2.1M (11)||$2,100,000||Arb 3||$2,800,000|
|Lannan, John||1yr/2.75M (11)||$2,750,000||Arb 2||$4,500,000|
|Morse, Michael||1 yr/$1.05M (11)||$1,050,000||Arb 2||$3,900,000|
|Slaten, Doug||1 yr/$0.695M; (11)||$695,000||Arb 3||$900,000|
|Zimmermann, Jordan||1 yr/$0.415M (11)||$415,000||Arb 1||$1,800,000|
This week, ahead of the salary exchanging deadline, we’ve seen the Nats re-sign a slew of their players. How close was I to properly guessing the salaries of these players?
- Tyler Clippard: re-signed but terms unknown as of 1/17/12. My guess matches mostly what our beat reporters are guessing, but as of the time of this post we don’t know the exact terms.
- Jesus Flores: guessed $800k, signed for $815k. That’s pretty close, and slightly higher than I thought he’d get. He gets a modest raise from the $750k he got for 2011.
- Tom Gorzelanny: guessed 2.8M, he gets $2.7M. Again, pretty close to guessing correctly, but still surprised he earned such a raise during a year when he went from starter to reliever. That had to factor into the tempered number (a 2nd year starter in Gorzelanny’s situation probably would get something closer to Lannan’s figure).
- John Lannan: guessed $4.5M, unsettled as of 1/17/12 so they submitted competing figures: $5M from the team, $5.7M from the player. Wow; I really under-estimated what Lannan is worth. If this went to arbitration, I’d have to think the team would win.
- Michael Morse: guessed $3.9M, unsettled as of 1/17/12, so they submitted competing figures: $3.5M from the team, $5M from the player. A massive gap; my number is closer to the team’s valuation and I think Morse has really overbid what he’s worth. I think Morse loses an arbitration hearing (he made only $1M last year and certainly the concern would be that he’s a one-hit wonder).
- Doug Slaten, as we all know, was non-tendered and recently signed a minor league deal with Pittsburgh. I’m not sure what the terms of that deal would be if he made the team but would guess its somewhere below the typical veteran minimum line of $800-$850k.
- Jordan Zimmermann; guessed $1.8, he gets $2.3M in salary. I was way off here; I guess I figured that his relative youth would keep the salary lower than it may have been otherwise. This award bodes badly for the team for the next three years; if he’s at $2.3M now he’ll likely push close to $10M by the time he’s reaching his 4th time through. A good problem to have, honestly.
One last player: Gio Gonzalez as we know was arbitration eligible but signed a 5 year deal late last week, buying out all his arbitration years plus the first couple free agency years. $8M AAV is a decent club risk, and gets us a #2 level starter for about the same amount of money we were paying Jason Marquis off the open FA market.
I’m especially happy to see most of these cases settled prior to even exchanging figures. The Lerners are clearly learning (no pun intended) from past arbitration cases that they serve little purpose but to alienate players over (in the grand scheme of things) pocket change. Lets hope that they can find some middle ground on Lannan and Morse prior to needing to go before an arbitrator.