Courtesy of Beyond the Boxscore, here’s a quick look at Vegas Over/Unders for teams for 2011.
– The AL East looks all jacked up. The Yankees look high. 91 wins versus 86 for the Rays? I don’t think the Rays are going to fall that far. Meanwhile Toronto won 86 games last year … do we think the trades of Marcum and Wells are going to cost them 10 wins? And the Red Sox might actually be low. They come into 2011 healthy and stacked.
– NL East: 97 wins is tough to argue with for Philly … but why isn’t Atlanta in the 90+ game range? They won 91 last year and should only improve as their young guys get better.
– Oakland; won 81 games last year, added hitting, has one of the deepest young rotations in the game … and only is predicted to improve a game and a half? I think they’re winning closer to 90 than 80 games this year.
– An aside about Detroit; what exactly are they getting for their money? $133M in payroll last year bought them a .500 season, and while they have some very bad contracts coming off the books they’re still in the 9-figure range.
– Milwaukee: this one shocks me. Only 84.5? They added Greinke and Marcum, two guys who will give them a shutdown 1-2-3 rotation. And they have a battering ram middle of the order (Weeks, Fielder, Braun and Hart).
– Lastly the Nats at 72 wins. Hmm. 3 game improvement over last year. I’d bet the over… I’ll predict that we improve 5-6 games over last year’s team. I think simply the opportunity of getting a few more “competent” starts out of guys like Marquis, Zimmermann, and Gorzelanny versus what we got out of Atilano, Martin and Olsen last year will make a huge difference. Yes we’ve lost some offense, but we’ve also improved defensively across the board.