Nationals Arm Race

"… the reason you win or lose is darn near always the same – pitching.” — Earl Weaver

Vegas Over/Under wins for 2011


Courtesy of Beyond the Boxscore, here’s a quick look at Vegas Over/Unders for teams for 2011.

First thoughts looking at this:

– The AL East looks all jacked up.  The Yankees look high.  91 wins versus 86 for the Rays?  I don’t think the Rays are going to fall that far.  Meanwhile Toronto won 86 games last year … do we think the trades of Marcum and Wells are going to cost them 10 wins?  And the Red Sox might actually be low.  They come into 2011 healthy and stacked.

– NL East: 97 wins is tough to argue with for Philly … but why isn’t Atlanta in the 90+ game range?  They won 91 last year and should only improve as their young guys get better.

– Oakland; won 81 games last year, added hitting, has one of the deepest young rotations in the game … and only is predicted to improve a game and a half?  I think they’re winning closer to 90 than 80 games this year.

– An aside about Detroit; what exactly are they getting for their money?  $133M in payroll last year bought them a .500 season, and while they have some very bad contracts coming off the books they’re still in the 9-figure range.

– Milwaukee: this one shocks me.  Only 84.5?  They added Greinke and Marcum, two guys who will give them a shutdown 1-2-3 rotation.  And they have a battering ram middle of the order (Weeks, Fielder, Braun and Hart).

– Lastly the Nats at 72 wins.  Hmm.  3 game improvement over last year.  I’d bet the over… I’ll predict that we improve 5-6 games over last year’s team.  I think simply the opportunity of getting a few more “competent” starts out of guys like Marquis, Zimmermann, and Gorzelanny versus what we got out of Atilano, Martin and Olsen last year will make a huge difference.  Yes we’ve lost some offense, but we’ve also improved defensively across the board.

Written by Todd Boss

February 20th, 2011 at 8:41 am

3 Responses to 'Vegas Over/Under wins for 2011'

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  1. Given those numbers, I’d…
    – Take the under on the Yankees; They’re getting older, & lost Pettitte.
    – Think about playing the over on the White Sox; Gardenhire & the Twins are running out of ‘rabbits to pull out of the hat’.
    – Take the over on Oakland & under on the Rangers; Texas made a mess of their off-season, losing both Lee & Vlad, and then the Michael Young kerfluffle.

    In the National League, I’d…
    – Consider taking the over on the Nationals; With the improved defense & general health of the pitching staff, 75 wins sounds about right.
    – Lay off the NL Central completely; That could easily be a 4-team scrum.
    – Take the under on the Dodgers; Between the off-field McCourt divorce, and Donnie Baseball trying to control things on the field, this will end badly, I fear.


    20 Feb 11 at 9:48 am

  2. Take the over @ 72 if you think the youngsters are going to be noticeably better. There was a major downgrade on the offensive side; better defense only goes so far in baseball.

    Mark L

    20 Feb 11 at 10:00 am

  3. Nats Over/Under on wins this year thoughts:
    – Our starters will be better than last year. Marginally better but better. We gave 45 starts to Atilano, Olsen and Marquis last year, and they had ERAs of 5.15, 5.88 and 6.60 respectively. Gorzelanny may not be fantastic but he had a better ERA+ last year than anyone on the roster outside of Livan and Strasburg. Zimmermann *should* be improved and healthy.
    – I don’t think Livan will be appreciably worse than he was last year frankly. Everyone just assumes everything he did last year was luck; i don’t think so . I think he’s a craftsman who knows how to pitch and think he’ll be fine.
    – We’ll have less offense to be sure. Zimmerman won’t have the protection he needs and may have an off year.
    – The clubhouse will be more professional. By all accounts Werth and LaRoche are competitors who don’t accept losing. There’s something to be said for that in a clubhouse.
    – Defense is improved, and you have to think the younger pitchers won’t have to get as many extra outs as last year.

    I feel like we’re a few wins better than last year but not 10 wins better (Riggleman’s goal). I’d like to see them hit 75 wins.

    Todd Boss

    20 Feb 11 at 12:52 pm

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