There is always a risk of over-emphasizing early spring training statistics. But as an analyst or even a fan of a team, you’re in a catch 22. There are players out there clearly pitching to make the team and thus their statistics and results are important. Meanwhile, you have to keep in mind that for every homer Mike Morse hits off a legitimate major league starter, he’s hitting another one off a guy who is a non-40 man minor league filler player who is pitching that game just to fill out the innings. So, when looking at these results we try to put the performance into context. If a pitcher is going against a split squad and is facing 3 regulars and 6 minor leaguers, his performance obviously has a caveat.
In the 3rd week of spring training though, starters are getting “stretched out” and the teams are starting to look more like what they will in the regular season. So the good/bad/inconclusive starts to be more important. The Nats also managed to lose 6 of these 7 games, a troubling sign for the beginning of our season.
Here’s links to Week 1 and Week 2‘s Good/Bad/Inconclusive posts. And below are the links to running commentaries (when available), wrap-ups from beat reporters and box scores (if I can find them):
- 3/13: at Marlins (running blog/gamer/box score)
- 3/14: vs Tigers (running blog/gamer/box score)
- 3/15: at Mets (running blog/gamer/box score)
- 3/16: at Astros (running blog/gamer/box score)
- 3/17: at Braves (running blog/gamer/box score)
- 3/18: vs Cardinals (running blog/gamer/box score)
- 3/19: at Mets (ss) (running blog/gamer/box score)
The Good
- Doug Slaten: he had nice rebound appearance against the Tigers on 3/14. If he mis-fires, we always have Ron Villone (kidding. Maybe.)
- Tom Gorzelanny: looked significantly improved on 3/15 over his first appearance. Final line; 4 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 3 BB, 4 K, 65 pitches, 36 strikes. He clearly tired in the last inning, issuing two of the three walks and the run. No radar gun readings to be found but the observers say he looked like a completely different pitcher. Good.
- Brian Broderick: two quick, easy outings later in the week gives him only 1 earned run in 10 2/3 innings this spring. He’s looking like a steal of a rule5 pick and may just make this team as the long-man. Or perhaps at the expense of Drew Storen (see further down).
The Bad
- Elvin Ramirez: this rule-5 acquisition has yet to appear in a game and now has a sore-shoulder that may necessitate his starting the season on the DL. I know that Rule-5 draft picks are low-risk and low-cost, but on a team like the Nationals they don’t make a lot of sense. We’re not deep enough so that we can “hide” a guy all year (as we did with Tony Blanco back in 2005), and there are more deserving pitchers on this team for the few spots that aren’t guaranteed. Perhaps we can negotiate a trade with the Mets to keep him if the team really likes him. More likely he starts the year on the DL and gets returned if we cannot negotiate a deal.
- Craig Stammen‘s 3/15 outing was probably enough to guarantee his trip to Syracuse. He gave up 3 runs on 4 hits and a walk against a decent Mets lineup. He’s looking like 4th best out of 4 for the last bullpen spot.
- Tyler Clippard: His 3/16 outing was seriously disturbing. 1ip, gave up 4 hits (3 for extra bases), 2 walks, 5 runs … a disaster. He was quoted as saying that he “lost his concentration” but one would have to think that after perhaps the third or fourth baserunner he’d get it back in a hurry. He wasn’t exactly facing the elite of the league either in the 9th inning against (possibly) the worst team in the majors.
- Drew Storen: after a bounce back performance earlier in the week, Storen gets absolutely hammered by a bunch of Cardinals scrubs you’ve never heard of on 3/18. Not good. I’m beginning to wonder if he even makes the team at this rate.
The Inconclusive/Worrisome/Concerning
- Henry Rodriguez: On March 13th our possible-closer-acquisition pitcher was FINALLY set to appear in a game. He promptly lays an egg; 1/3 of an inning, 3 walks and a hit. Clocked at 97 though, so there’s that. Management has to be irritated with this situation; the guy has no minor league options and is basically guaranteed to be on the team, yet misses weeks of camp and shows up not in full throwing shape. If this guy bombs out (as the centerpiece of the Josh Willingham deal), we’ll have given up an awful lot of offense for next to nothing. In his next appearance on 3/17, he looked remarkably better; got his fastball up to 99, threw a couple wild pitches but got some Ks on a great 90mph change-up. Most described him as “effectively wild.” Which is the real Rodriguez?
- Colin Balester: Why has Balester only gotten 5 innings in 2 weeks? His role on this team (presumably to me) is to be the long-man out of the bullpen, the Miguel Batista role from last year. He’s being treated more like an 7th/8th inning guy. Is this indicative of his lowered chances of making this team? Perhaps the plan is to have option-less Gorzelanny in that role with Balester back in AAA (he has one option left). He did pitch 2 scoreless on 3/19 to finish up the week but seems destined for AAA to start the year.
- Ross Detwiler took a step back from his spring performances on 3/16 with this line: 3 IP, 4 H, 3 R, 2 ER, 2 BB, 71p, 43 strikes. He gave up 4 consecutive base-runners, struggled with a basic sacrifice attempt from the opposing pitcher, and reportedly wasn’t as crisp with his fastball velocity as in days past. Perhaps just an off day.
- Yunesky Maya: He showed nearly the velocity we want out of him on 3/17 against a strong Braves lineup (peaking at 92, sitting between 88-91 mostly). Not quite the 93 we were told he was hitting in the DWL but perhaps he was on a fast gun. He fell victim to that which plagued him last year; the big inning. He needs to find a way to mitigate the damage if he gets down in an inning.
- Jordan Zimmermann: 5 scoreless innings on 3/13 to run his spring training streak to 11. Good velocity, good movement on his curve. His 3/18 Outing was not as nice: 4 ip, 6 runs, 8 hits, 2 walks, 0 strikeouts, 2 wp, 69 pitches and 44 strikes. He was reportedly very wild and very hittable.
- Jason Marquis: He continued his great spring, goes 5 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 2 BB, 4 K, 53 pitches, 38 strikes against the tigers on 3/14. And then he got absolutely hammered on 3/19, giving up 9 hits and 3 walks in less than 4 innings (3.2 IP, 6 ER, 9 H, 3 BB, 1 K, 1 WP, 79 pitches, 45 strikes). The first inning of 3/19 seemed to be part bad defense, part unlucky grounder locations, but he did have trouble locating his pitches all game.
Lots of “inconclusive” this week, as guys who looked good before put in bad performances. Lots of pitchers complain about a “dead arm” period late in spring training and perhaps that’s what we’re seeing overall. Next week’s games will be revealing.
Wait til you see Lannan and LIvo and you will undertand why that unnamed GM called this a terrible pitching staff. There is no other way to characterize it at this point? The hope is for the big step up by Zimmermann, Detwiler, and Maya combined perhaps with a huge start in Syracuse by 1. Tatusko, and 2. Milone. After that its catch-us-catch-can. Gaudin? Gaudin? You’re joking with Gaudin pundits!
Maybe they will get lucky and draft Gerrit Cole and sign him before August rolls around. They could sure use him!
Mark my words Gorzelanny will be this staff’s ace before too long.
peric
19 Mar 11 at 9:10 pm
The last week has absolutely been troubling. Lannan and Livan aren’t *that* bad; historically they’re #4 or #5 starters on good rotations. Same with Marquis and Gorzelanny. Only Zimmermann would be coveted by teams with strong rotations in place.
Detwiler; i’ve said this before: promising, talented, but unproven at the major league level. I read a scout’s comments (perhaps Keith Law chat) that said something to the effect of “The nats are changing his mechanics, which makes you wonder why they drafted him in the first place.” Fair point; a mechanical change on a player who has pitched this way since he was 8 or 9 just cannot mean much.
Maya; i like him, i like his arsenal and the “way” that cuban pitchers pitch. You see it in Livan, el duque. A fearlessness and guile in the way they approach the game. But he’s gotta figure out how to a) keep focused when things go against him and b) avoid the big inning.
Who knows. Perhaps this rotation is Livan, Marquis, Zimmermann, Gaudin and Detwiler by may 1st.
Can’t wait to see what the AAA rising arms can do, agree. Tatusko, Milone, even Roark or Meyers at some point.
Gerrit Cole looks like he’s going #1 overall. It’d be a shock if he didn’t go 1 or 2, let alone drop to us.
Todd Boss
19 Mar 11 at 11:14 pm
The HRod comments are right on. As terrific as Rizzo has been in drafting and minor league development, the Willingham deal had Rookie GM written all over it.
While I’m not quite as pessimistic as peric on this years team, Todd, I think you got it backwards in regards the Rule 5. 2011 is basically a lost year for the Nats, let’s be honest, and there is no better time to stash these Rule 5 guys.
If you’re ready to compete for a title, then it’s a bad time to be stashing these picks.
Besides, Broderick looks like the real deal; you have to figure the pitching-short Cardinals are banging their heads against a wall somewhere.
Mark L
20 Mar 11 at 9:26 am
Hey Mark. In theory I agree with you on the lost 2011 season w.r.t. keeping rule 5 guys. No doubt; the second Strasburg went down the entire plan for 2011 had to be changed. In that respect the Werth signing was somewhat surprising.
I think in reality though the team has gone nowhere but backwards since arriving here in 2005. I blame a lot of that on Bowden’s obsession with former Reds and tools-y players who became such a nightmare to integrate as a team that Acta had to be scuttled as a manager in favor of the more old-school Riggleman. The team lost the entirety of good will and excitement that came with a new stadium and the Lerners as owners had to be shocked at how quickly they destroyed their season ticket base (most observers believe they’ve lost more than half their season ticket holders just from 2009!). So the team is just not in a position to play for the future any more; they have to appear to be improving the team even marginally for the next few years to put themselves in a better position financially.
If the team was really playing for 2013 (as, say, the KC Royals clearly are), they’d never have even brought in the likes of Ankiel, Coffey, Hairston, basically every mid-career veteran and go completely with a lineup of prospects and these rule5 guys. They’d have a lineup something like this:
C: Pudge, Ramos (they *had* to get Pudge b/c of the state of their catcher depth pre 2010).
inf: Marrero, Espinosa, Desmond, Zimmermann backed up by Gonzalez and Lombardozzi
of: Bernadina, Morgan, Burgess, Morse and CBrown
sp: Maya, Detwiler, Livan, Lannan, Zimmermann
rp: Storen, Clippard, Burnett, Slaten, Broderick, Carr and Kimball (with ERodriguez on DL).
17 of those 25 would be on pre-arbitration salaries and the total payroll would probably be in the $28M range. It’d be the “right” thing to do but the town would absolutely howl in protest. Based on our market size and revenue potential this team should be spending closer to $90M in payroll.
I dunno. I go back and forth as a fan. Part of me says screw 2011, play the kids, see what they can do this year and regroup for 2012 when you can have a very good Strasburg-Zimmermann 1-2 punch. The other part of me says that incremental growth in terms of wins and respectability for this team is just as important in terms of attracting free agents and enabling the team to make a quick leap in a couple years. If this team can win 75 games this year, Strasburg comes back and probably improves the team 5 wins just by himself, we acquire an incrementally better #3 pitcher and hope that Maya, Detwiler and our rising AAA guys become real major league options. If you’re a 81 win team a couple of key free agent signings coupled with the natural rise of our core up and coming players can improve the team 10-12 wins very quickly. Suddenly we’re a 90 win team and still have a manageable payroll to augment and take the next steps to rise above Atlanta and Philadelphia in the division.
That’s “the plan,” right?
Todd Boss
20 Mar 11 at 12:49 pm
All good points, Todd. I’m more of a Farm seamhead than you and most, and I have to say things are going great there right now. Hagestown will have 4-5 stud prospects this year, Potomac has won 2 championships in 3 years and looks to be very good this year & Harrisburg is overflowing with pitchers.
I think all the good news this year will be coming from the minors. I remember an interview with Jim Challis at Baseball America a month or so ago and he was talking about Cole Kimball — saying that when the Nats got him he had a great arm and nothing else, no idea how to pitch. And now they’ve turned him into a stud who’s knocking at the door big time and probably would make the team if they hadn’t stuck themselves.
with all these arms with no options.
Just a more.
Mark L
20 Mar 11 at 3:46 pm