Nationals Arm Race

Tom Milone keeps putting up sterling numbers in AAA. Photo: Tom Priddy/Four Seam images via milb.com

Here are the daily links from NationalsProspects, for reference below:

• Tuesday 5/17 game reviews (Stammen, Martis, Demny, Grace)
• Wednesday 5/18 game reviews (Maya, Harrisburg rained out, Bronson, Applebee)
• Thursday 5/19 game reviews (Detwiler, OPerez, Rosenbaum, Cole)
• Friday 5/20 game reviews (Meyers, Harrisburg rain out, Clegg, Ray)
• Saturday 5/21 game reviews (Milone, Peacock, Holder, Hansen)

Good

• As much as I thought the Nats should have parted ways with Shairon Martis, you have to give him props for his 5/17 outing: 7IP 3H 0R 1BB 5K.
• Paul Applebee got the “suspended start” on 5/18, actually finishing the game that Grace really started the day before, and went 4⅓ 6H 1R 1ER 0BB 1K for the victory.  He scattered 6 hits effectively enough to get his 4th victory on the season.
• Oliver Perez dominated in his first Harrisburg start on 5/19: 5+ IP 1H 1R 0ER 2BB 3K.  As one would expect for a former 15-game MLB winner.
• Mitchell Clegg put in his second good outing in a row for Potomac on 5/20, putting in 7 effective innings for the win.  Line: 7IP 4H 1R 1ER 2BB 2K.
• The Robbie Ray show continues in Hagerstown, as he finally gave up a run but still threw 6 great innings on 5/20.  Line: 6IP 7H 2R 1ER 0BB 4K.  Selik got promoted after 5 great starts in a row; is it possible that the same could happen with Ray?
• Another fantastic outing for Tom Milone for Syracuse on 5/21: 7IP 3H 0R 0BB 9K.   This walk-less outing now gives Milone 44 Ks and THREE walks in 43 1/3 innings on the year.  In fact, if his one blow-up start was removed from his stats, he’d have a 2.26 ERA and a 0.85 whip.
• The Brad Peacock show continued in Harrisburg on 5/21: 6IP 1H 1R 1ER 2BB 10K 1HR.  One hit through six complete to go with 10ks.   Milb.com is now making Peacock’s starts required attendance, with this story showing up yesterday.  Peacock’s ridiculous numbers on the season?   66ks and 9 walks in 48 1/3 innings, a 0.83 whip and a 2.05 era.  These numbers dwarf what Meyers had before he earned his promotion.
• Bobby Hansen gave Hagerstown another quality start on 5/21, but his bullpen conspired to cost him a victory.  Line: 6IP 5H 2R 2ER 2BB 6K.

Bad

• Ross Detwiler was lit up in the first and left in for 5 yet was rewarded with a “win” for his work on 5/19.  Line: 5IP 5H 4R 4ER 4BB 3K.  What is going on with Detwiler?  He now has an ERA above 5.00 and a WHIP in the 1.66 range on the season and has more or less gotten hammered in 3 of his last 4 starts.  Is he hurt?
• In another example of why W/L records are meaningless as indicators of a pitcher’s value, Denny Rosenbaum got lit up in his 5/19 start: 5⅔ IP 7H 6R 6ER 4BB 4K.  Yet, because his team hit SIX homers on the day, he got a victory as Potomac out-slugged Frederick 14-6.
• See my last point: Trevor Holder had a meltdown start but still got the victory in Potomac on 5/21: 5⅓ IP 7H 5R 5ER 0BB 6K.

Mediocre/Inconclusive

• Craig Stammen had a ho-hum quality start on 5/17: 6IP 9H 3R 3ER 0BB 7K.  I guess i’m just expecting more out of a guy with 38 major league starts.
• Paul Demny had enough walks and baserunners to turn his quality start into a relatively mediocre outing for me.  Perhaps i’m a harsh judge.  Final line on 5/17: 6IP 5H 2R 2ER 3BB 4K.
• Matt Grace was struggling on 5/17 before his start got called after 3 innings.  His abbreviated line: 3IP 5H 2R 2ER 1BB 3K.
• Yunesky Maya was plagued by the “one big inning” syndrome that plagued him in September of last year, giving up 3 runs in the first and then shutting down Norfolk on 5/18.  Line: 6⅓ IP 4H 3R 3ER 1BB 2K 1HR.    After the first inning, Maya didn’t give up another hit, retired 13 straight, then got inexplicably yanked after giving up a one-out single in the 7th when he was sitting on just 71 pitches.  How do you judge such an outing?  5 no-hit and nearly perfect innings, and one inning with 4 hits and a 2-run homer.  Its officially “inconclusive.”
• Spot Starter Evan Bronson had a mediocre-teetering-on-bad outing on 5/18 in Potomac: 3⅔ IP 5H 2R 2ER 3BB 1K 1HR.  That’s 8 baserunners in less than 4 innings.  Amazingly he only gave up 2 runs despite all these baserunners.
• AJ Cole got touched up for 5 runs in 4 innings on 5/19, but showed flashes of dominance with 5Ks.  Final line: 4IP 6H 5R 2ER 0BB 5K.  He gave up 4 of the 5 runs in a messy 2nd inning where he threw a wild 3rd-strike pitch to allow on a punch-out victim, then gave up a 2-run double one play after an inning-ending error by his shortstop let in another run.   He did get a 1-2-3 4th inning, for what that’s worth.
• Brad Meyers didn’t have the worst possible outing on 5/20, but getting touched up for two homers is never a good thing.  Line: 5⅓ IP 7H 3R 3ER 0BB 3K 2HR.  The two homers were enough to give him a ND on the night.

Relievers of Note and other Thoughts

• A few pitcher moves were announced at the beginning of this cycle: Ryan Tatusko returned to Harrisburg, Ryan Mattheus rightfully earning a promotion from AA->AAA, and the enigmatic Oliver Perez reporting for duty in Harrisburg.  Tatusko clearly didn’t merit the promotion and seemed destined to return; most are calling the transaction a “paper promotion” to allow Harrisburg to do some roster maintenance w/o having to DL someone.  Meanwhile, Perez will slot right into the open rotation spot in AA and at age 30 will be nearly the oldest pitcher in the league.
• Who is making way in the Harrisburg rotation?  I thought Perez would be taking Roark‘s place but apparently not.  Tatusko’s spot was skipped but we havn’t seen him out of the bullpen yet …
• New Harrisburg closer Pat McCoy has had a string of sub-par outings lately, including a 4-run implosion to blow a game in which Martis had pitched pretty well.  This was apparently enough to put McCoy onto the DL.  Are we close to seeing Potomac’s Patrick Lehman moved up?  Perhaps not for a bit because….
• Potomac made a bunch more moves on 5/17-5/18, putting Cameron Selik and Lehman on the 7-day DL.  Replacing them was Rafael Martin and Hector Nelo.  Martin’s assignment is a bit curious; he was after all a AA all star in 2010 for Harrisburg and pitched pretty well there.  He’s 27 and is way too old for high-A ball; my guess is that he’s promoted up to replace McCoy as Harrisburg’s closer.  Nelo got dumped by Texas in April and we picked him up; he’s been stuck in A-ball within the Texas organization for 3 years.  He’s got good k/9 numbers but pretty bad ERAs over the past two seasons.  Lets see what he can do.  Meanwhile there’s no word on what Selik’s injury is; he’s had two sub-par outings thus far in high-A and the team needs a rotation spot (in theory) for Sammy Solis, so perhaps this is just administrative use of the DL for the next week or so.
• (copied this point from my MLB rotation review pending post): Brian Broderick‘s DFA was dated 5/14, and teams have 10 days to finalize that assignment.  We’ve heard no word on possible negotiations with St. Louis to keep Broderick up to this point, and odds are that no other team would claim him at this point (any claim would mean the claiming team would ALSO have to keep the Rule5 draftee on their active roster for the duration of the season).  I wonder if he’s about to be returned outright to St. Louis.
• Lastly, on 5/21 Christopher McKenzie and Chad Jenkins were “demoted” from Hagerstown to extended spring.  McKenzie struggled badly (though his final outing was good) in 6 starts, posting more walks than strikeouts.  Jenkins was similarly wild out of the pen.  I’m guessing both guys catch on with the Short-A squad for another shot at career redemption.  Both guys were middle round draft picks out of JuCo and earned some bonus money, but seemingly would be expendable if outperformed by the next draft class.

Trends

I have only included the starter trends for those that are actually in the rotations right now.  I honestly don’t know who the 5th starter is in Potomac right now; I’ve been assuming Solis will be activated from the DL to take the spot.  Perhaps it will be Bronson or Frias.  We’ll see; i think the spot comes up in two games.

AAA trends (in rotation order)
Maya        bad,soso,soso,good,great,good,soso,soso
Detwiler    good,good,soso,soso,bad,soso,bad,bad
Meyers    soso,good,soso
Milone    good,soso,soso,bad,great,good,great
Stammen    good,soso,great,bad,soso,good,soso

AA Trends:
Martis     bad,bad,soso,soso,good
OPerez    great
Peacock    soso,good,great,good,very good,bad,great,great
Roark        bad
Arneson    soso

High-A Trends:
Rosenbaum    soso,good,good,soso,good,good,soso,bad
Clegg        soso,soso,soso,unbelievably bad,soso,good,good
Holder    soso,bad,bad,soso,soso,soso,good,bad
Demny        good,bad,good,good,soso,soso

Low-A Trends:
Jordan    good,soso,good,good->dl,soso,soso
Grace        good,bad,bad,bad,good,soso,soso,soso
Cole        soso,soso
Ray        great,great,good
Hansen    soso,good,very bad,very good,soso,soso,good,good

Top 3 starters deserving promotion: Peacock, Milone, Ray
Top 3 starters whose jobs are in jeopardy: Detwiler, Holder, Grace.

Matt Stairs swings and misses at another fastball. Photo: Getty Images via zimbio.com

Lost in the shuffle of Friday’s offensive explosion in Baltimore was this line: Matt Stairs: 0-4, 2 strikeouts and 5 runners left on base hitting in the #5 hole.  The coup-de-grace for me was the inexplicable bases-loaded strikeout he had in the 4th, letting a perfect down-the-middle fastball pass right by him to end the inning.

That at-bat disgusted me.  It isn’t the first time we’ve seen Stairs let a pitch go by that he clearly was guessing otherwise on, and in the end of course the at bat didn’t matter, but its indicative of where he is now as a hitter.  On fastball counts, he’s guessing otherwise and letting pitches go by without even an offering in high-leverage situations.  But for me, if you have 2 strikes you’re not trying to hit home runs; you’re trying to put the ball in play.  It seems to me that his skills as a hitter have declined to the point where he’s depending more on guess work than his former hitting prowness to succeed at the plate.

Meanwhile, every other player in the lineup was mashing Baltimore pitching last night (well, except for Adam LaRoche, but that’s a different contract, a different defensive player, and a different story).  Our 7-8-9 hitters were 8-13 (eight hits out of the bottom three!).

I think its time to end the experiment.  For the season (as of 5/20) Stairs is 2 for 26 with no extra base hits.  He has a NEGATIVE OPS+, meaning that he’s hitting roughly 100% worse than an average major league player.  He has no defensive value and can’t pinch run when needed.  I think we need to bring up someone else from AAA.

Michael Aubrey didn’t have the worst numbers the last time he played in the majors (Baltimore in 2009), is also a lefty, can play first base if needed and (if you believe his profile’d height/weight of 6’0″ 190lbs) should be able to run the bases if needed.  We have a 40-man spot open with the DFA of Broderick and we could make this move immediately as a like-for-like replacement for Stairs.  If you didn’t want to add a guy to the roster, you could also just call up Chris Marrero, who doesn’t quite have Aubrey’s power but is hitting consistently in AAA and had 18 homers in AA last year.  Marrero could be a righty bat off the bench coupled with Ankiel’s lefty bat as a 4th outfielder/bat off the bench as well.

Either way, I think its time to make a change.

Bernadina's 5/13/11 catch has to be one of the plays of the season. Photo: Masn TV Screen shot via dc.sbnation.com

(I swear I had this post written over the weekend; i’m not copying my fellow bloggers’ ideas 🙂

The Nats have an OF problem coming.  Rick Ankiel (season slash line: .221/.302/.288 mostly out of the #2 hole) has been ably replaced in the lineup and in center field by Roger Bernadina, who is now trying to live up to the billing that the team had hoped for him all off-season (when most pundits and bloggers had annointed him the starting left fielder despite a relatively mediocre 2010 slash line of .246/.307/.384.  In his first 10 games and 38 at bats he had a .344/.447/.406 slash line hitting leadoff, to go with 4 SBs without being caught.  And he’s clearly playing lights out defense in center, with some highlight reel catches and adequate enough defense from an UZR/150 perspective.

Is Bernadina’s performance sustainable?  Probably not; his BABIP was an unnaturally high .407 (though frequent bunters will have an maintain higher BABIPs than the MLB average in the .290-.300 range).  An OBP of .450 was also not sustainable.  Sure enough, as of 5/19’s game he’s returned to a more typical .273/.360/.318 line (though I like the .360 obp from the leadoff spot).

So, if Bernadina is staying up and continuing to play, who makes way on the 25-man?  Ankiel’s return would give the team 5 outfielders on a team that can only really carry 4. Here’s some relevant contract and options details of our 5 OFers:

• Jayson Werth: Clearly he’s not going anywhere.
• Laynce Nix: He’s got 5 years of service time and would refuse an assignment to AAA, not to mention being exposed to waivers when we did so.  He’s our current clean up hitter and has wrested the starting job away from Morse.
• Michael Morse: No options left; if we ask him to go to Syracuse he has to clear waivers, and there’s teams out there sniffing around for right handed OF help (ahem, Philadelphia).
• Rick Ankiel: 5 years of service time, so he can refuse an assignment.  Plus we’re not paying him $1.5M to just let him go.
• Roger Bernadina: currently burning his 3rd and last option, but performing decently from the top of the order.

In other words, the only guy who we CAN option to the minors is Bernadina.  But can the team purposely send down a guy who has been giving them their best leadoff production all season?  I don’t think they can.

How about the rest of the bench right now?  Assuming for the time being that Hairston is the starting 3rd baseman and Ramos is the starting catcher, here’s our current bench:

• Ivan Rodriguez: Plenty of service time, plus on a $2M contract, plus he’s the backup catcher.  He’s staying (unless the Red Sox panic and trade something for him).
• Matt Stairs: Tons of service time; would refuse any outright to AAA and look for another PH job.
• Alex Cora: 11+ years of service time so could refuse outrighting.
• Brian Bixler: Very little service time, was on a minor league contract to begin with, and has options (2011 would be his 3rd option, though he’s been outrighted in the past).

I’ll editorialize about the 25-man spot that Stairs currently occupies for a moment; he is 2 for 21 on the season right now, cannot play the field, and effectively shortens the bench by one player.  If you want his veteran presence around, then DFA him and hire him as a bench coach!

Now, that being said for reasons inexplicable Stairs probably stays on the roster.  So, when Ankiel is ready to come back I’m going to guess that the team options Bixler, keeps 5 outfielders, Ankiel serves as a 4th outfielder, and Morse participates in some sort of lefty-righty platoon with Nix.

We’ll revisit this entire situation once Ryan Zimmerman is ready to play, because that’s when something has to give.

This is what the Park could have looked like during 5/17's "rainout." Ridiculous. Photo: AndrewClem.com

Note: Tuesday’s “rainout” of the Nats-Pirates game allowed the team to just skip Jordan Zimmermann’s start, so we’ve only got four outings in this period’s “starter cycle.”

Good

• Livan Hernandez was out-dueled for the 2nd time in a week by Anibal Sanchez on 5/14 (box/gamer), and took a loss in a game that he pitched pretty well.  line: 7ip, 6hits, 1 run.  He follows up a bad performance with a good one, as is his custom.

Bad

Mediocre/Inconclusive

• Jason Marquis may officially have a quality start in the books for his 5/15 victory over the Marlins (box/gamer) but at least one of the two earned runs he gave up in in the top of the 2nd was really “earned” and not a result of the throwing error that put Sanchez on base.  Its one of the many reasons that ERA is misleading in many cases.  That being said: he went 6 2/3, runs (2 earned), 6 hits and a walk and 2ks.  The victory makes him 5-1 on the season and should do nothing to stem the trade rumors that are sure to start dogging him now that the season is a quarter finished.
• John Lannan didn’t figure into the decision on 5/16, but he pitched decently enough (box/gamer).  Line: 6 1/3 ip, 7 hits and 4 bbs, 2 runs and 4ks.  It counts as a “good” quality start but he was putting guys on all day.  101 pitches but only 54 for strikes, indicated by the 4 walks.  He’s got a 1.6 whip on the season right now and one has to wonder if a hot starter in AAA would jeopardize his rotation spot at some point in the future.
• Tom Gorzelanny‘s 5/18 outing was hard to judge, given the weather conditions (box/gamer).  He got knocked out of the game in the 6th, having given up 8 hits and 5 walks (2 of which were intentional, but still.  One of the IBBs was done because Gorzelanny threw away a pickoff attempt, the other because he gave up a leadoff single that was stranded at 2nd).  Nearly a 2.00 whip on the day.   But it was pouring rain most of the night and both pitchers must have been struggling with their grips and control.

Starter Trends

Lhernandez    good,bad,good,good,bad,good,soso,bad,good
Marquis    good,good,good,soso,great,bad,good,soso
Lannan    good,soso,soso,bad,soso,good,really bad,good,soso
Zimmermann     good,good,good,bad,bad,good,good,great
Gorzelanny    soso,good,soso,good,great,good,bad,soso

Relievers of Note

• Cole Kimball‘s first two appearances ended with identical lines: 1ip, 1bb, 1k, nothing else.  His first appearance was in a one-run game, his second in a 4-run outing so as to save Storen’s arm.  Per pitch f/x, Kimball was throwing 93, maxing at 94.9 and throwing mostly fastballs.  There’s a massive delta between his fastball and his curve speed.  He has 4 pitches (being a former starter) but we are only really seeing 2 of them right now.  The fact that Riggleman immediately put Kimball into a one-run game within 12 hours of his call-up is as clear an indictment of Henry Rodriguez‘s continued place in the bullpen as can be said.

Thoughts on the offense

• Ankiel‘s injury may prove to be somewhat of a Wally Pipp injury, if Roger Bernadina continues to perform has he has been.   His slash line as of 5/15 is .321/.424/.393 and we’re seeing zero drop-off with his defense, high lighted by this amazing catch on 5/13 (a catch that I couldn’t believe he made either).  Its nice to see both Bernadina and Laynce Nix making statements and taking control of positions that they both “lost” in spring training.

Maybe its the 2011 haircut that is the source of Lannan’s mediocre start. Photo: Luis M. Alvarez/AP via www.timesunion.com

In his latest outing (5/16 against the Pirates), John Lannan worked around 11 base-runners in 6 and a third innings and only gave up 2 runs (one being inherited and allowed to score by Cole Kimball).  Four walks conspired to cause Lannan grief all afternoon, as well as only throwing 54 of 101 pitches for strikes.  However in the end, it was a quality start and kept the team in the game.

But are we seeing a gradual breakdown in Lannan overall?  After getting sent down in 2010, he had masterful numbers upon his return (6-3 record with a 3.42 era and 1.24 whip in his last 10 starts in 2010).  But he has not been able to carry these numbers into 2011.  Right now, his season long 2011 numbers are WORSE than his combined stats from last year, and despite only really having one egregiously bad outing (2ip, 6runs) his supporting stats are getting to be really concerning.  Here’s what concerns me specifically:

• 1.615 whip.  That’s just way too many base-runners.
• 26ks and 22bbs in 47 IP.

Perhaps I’m being nit-picky; his ERA (4.53) is almost exactly in line with his FIP and xFIP (4.50 and 4.56 respectively) meaning he’s pitching exactly as expected.  His BABIP is .323, meaning he’s been unlucky and is due for a regression of seeing-eye singles costing him hits and base-runners.  His game scores throughout the season have been relatively consistent (mostly 40s and 50s; his high on the season has been 54 and his 5/16 game was a 51).

But, more importantly, even if Lannan is the first in line to be replaced out of our current rotation, we don’t really have anyone in AAA quite yet deserving of the promotion.

The incumbent seemed to be Ross Detwiler, but he’s really struggling so far this year in AAA.  $8M man Yunesky Maya started slow and is coming around, but I want to see more Ks out of him.  Tom Milone‘s k/bb ratio is fantastic but he’s not on the 40-man (though we seem to have an empty spot right now, so perhaps that’s a non-issue).  Newly promoted Brad Meyers needs a few more AAA starts for seasoning but the evidence is there (especially after he dominated AA early in the season); his problem is lack of 40-man status as well.  Lastly Craig Stammen believe it or not may have the best case of them all; best whip, decent numbers, and outside of one bad start has been solid, but he seems to have the least “investment” of any of the starters in Syracuse and seems more likely destined for the bullpen than the MLB rotation.

Interesting decisions lay ahead, especially if Lannan has a couple bad outings in a row.  Remember; Lannan has minor league options (two of them if I read his transactions correctly).  It isn’t really a good statement to option a former opening day starter, but the team has to do what is best.

Brad Peacock won his 2nd Pitcher of the Week award after his performance on 5/13. Photo: Jenny Kane/The Patriot News

Here are the daily links from NationalsProspects, for reference below.  I’m going to put in starter names per day review to help keep track.

• Thursday 5/12 game reviews (Maya, Tatusko, Potomac off, Grace )
• Friday 5/13 game reviews (Detwiler, Peacock, Selik, Cole)
• Saturday 5/14 game reviews (Meyers, Harrisburg rained out, Rosenbaum, Ray )
• Sunday 5/15 game reviews (Syracuse rain out, Roark, Clegg, Hansen)
• Monday 5/16 game reviews (Syracuse rained out DH, Harrisburg off, Holder, Jordan)

Good

• All we can say about Brad Peacock‘s 5/13 outing is, “wow.”  7IP 5H 1R 1ER 1BB 14K.  14 Strikeouts in 7 innings and he was at 106 pitches when pulled.  His performance earned a writeup at milb.com, earned him a second pitcher of the week award in a month, and gives him a gaudy 56ks (versus only 7 walks) in 42 innings on the year.  He’s proving again and again to be a massive steal of a 41st round draft pick and will be pushing for a promotion soon.
• Brad Meyers picked up right where he left off from his AA days on 5/14, going for 7IP 4H 0R 0BB 8K.  After a mediocre first start, this was one of the cleaner outings the AAA staff has seen this year.  Meyers wasn’t the story of the day though: his first baseman Michael Aubrey hit FOUR homers in the game.
• Is it too early to call for Robbie Ray‘s promotion?  In his 2nd pro start on 5/14 he was as dominant as in the first: 6IP 2H 0R 1BB 7K.  I don’t call too many starts “great” but Ray’s got two of them in a row.  So far, he’s looking like a fantastic piece of drafting and signing by Mike Rizzo (he was a 12th rounder HS kid who was signed away from his college commitment to U of Arkansas for $799k last summer).  Update: Ray was also named pitcher of the week for his start.
• Mitchell Clegg had a redeeming start in Potomac on 5/15: 5⅓ IP 5H 1R 1ER 1BB 2K.  Not dominant, but pretty clean.  Its arguably his best start of the season.  Good for him, because it comes at a time when Potomac is looking for someone to replace in the rotation for Solis.
• Bobby Hansen had a nice outing on 5/15 in Hagerstown: 7IP 4H 2R 1ER 1BB 5K.  He’s now 5-1 on the season with decent anciliary numbers considering he’s yet to turn 22.
• Despite taking the loss, i’ll give Trevor Holder a “good” for his 5/16 outing in Potomac: 8IP 6H 3R 3ER 0BB 5K.   Through 7 innings, he had completely shut down Fredrick to the tune of 2hits and a hit batsman on 73 pitches.  He shouldn’t have tired in the 8th, and perhaps a reliever could have stemmed the flow of the inning, but not being there its hard to make that judgement.

Bad

• Not a good outing for Ross Detwiler on 5/13: 6⅔ 11H 4R 4ER 1BB 3K 2HR.  His season era now stands at 4.76 and he’s not getting nearly the K/9 rates that one would expect out of a guy who was threatening for a MLB rotation spot.  He’s the worst of the 5 starters in AAA right now at a time that Brian Peacock is pushing for a promotion.
• Cameron Selik isn’t experiencing the success at high-A that he did in low-A thus far, getting hammered on 5/13 for Potomac.  Line: 4⅓ IP 10H 9R 8ER 1BB 4K.  Well, at least he had 4 Ks.
• Tanner Roark‘s return to AA on 5/15 wasn’t pretty: 3⅓ IP 10H 5R 5ER 2BB 3K.  Lets hope he’s just rusty from whatever ailment kept him in extended spring training.

Mediocre/Inconclusive

• Yunesky Maya put in a so-so start 5/12: 7⅓ IP 7H 4R 3ER 1BB 3K 1HR.  A solo-homer, then a leaked run after a lead-off double in the 6th and another leadoff double led to his runs allowed.  Maya’s lesson: don’t give up leadoff doubles, since the likelihood of them scoring is something like 85%.
• Weird night for Ryan Tatusko on 5/12: he only gave up one earned run but couldn’t “get out” of the 5th inning.  Line: 4⅔ IP 6H 2R 1ER 2BB 3K.  6 hits, a couple wild pitches and 2 walks conspired for his early hook.
• Contrary to my previous post, Matt Grace has NOT yet lost his rotation spot and went for Hagerstown on 5/12.  Result: mediocre at best.  4⅓ IP 7H 4R 3ER 2BB 3K.
• AJ Cole‘s second professional start on 5/13 ended before we could really pass much judgement.  4IP 2H 1R 1ER 2BB 4K.   The one run he conceded was a lead-off walk (lead off walks kill), but otherwise he was solid.  He was lifted before the 5th, oddly.  Was he at a pitch count limit?
• Denny Rosenbaum had a soso night on 5/14: 7IP 10H 4R 3ER 3BB 5K.  Per Sue Dinem’s take, he worked his way out of jams well, and consistently got the leadoff hitter to mitigate the effects of 13 baserunners in 7 innings.
• Taylor Jordan kept his team in the game on 5/16, going 6IP 7H 3R 3ER 2BB 5K.

Relievers of Note and other Thoughts

• The big news of this cycle was going to be the assignment of Sammy Solis to Potomac on 5/11.  But then they immediately stuck him on the 7-day DL.  I’m sure there’s a reason for this procedurally but it doesn’t make much sense (perhaps they want him to start traveling with the team?  Working with Potomac’s excellent pitching coach Paul Menhart?)
• Perhaps 2nd biggest news item; the promotion of Cole Kimball, one day after I called for the move in this space.  No word yet on the corresponding move but perhaps we’ll see a wholesale shifting upwards of our closers (Mattheus, Lehman, and Manno), all of whom are excelling at their various levels so far this season.
• A slew of moves on 5/15 resulted in Erik Davis going to the DL (he limped out of his previous start), Tanner Roark replacing Davis in the AA rotation, and (curiously) Ryan Tatusko getting promoted to AAA to replace Kimball.  Roark more or less dominated AA last year; i’m hoping that this move is a temporary one before he moves up to the AAA rotation where he belongs (though his 5/15 outing didn’t help his cause).  Meanwhile, i’m guessing Davis’ DL stint is just for a few days (can you make 7-day DL moves retroactive to the day they got hurt?) since AA still needs a 5th starter.  Finally Tatusko’s promotion certainly wasn’t earned; he has an ugly 5.73 ERA and an even uglier 1.94 whip and i’m guessing is more a function of his age (he is too old for AA).  It also may be indicative of his end as a starting pitcher in the system and he’ll be tested as a reliever in AAA.
• Is Hagerstown going to a 6-man rotation for the time being?  I would have thought Grace would be the natural guy to make way for the Jordan return plus the Cole/Ray promotions, but he threw on 5/11.  McKenzie‘s spot was skipped in the rotation this cycle, so perhaps that is the answer.
• It may be a few days before we figure out who makes way for Solis in the Potomac rotation.  My previous guess was either Holder or Clegg.  I’d lean towards Clegg since Holder got so much draft bonus money.  Perhaps a topic for the next version of this post.
• Collin Balester‘s 5/13 outing didn’t speak well of his season: 4 batters faced, 4 unretired to put Syracuse’s game completely out of reach.  For someone whose promotion I was advocating, this outing didn’t help his chances.
• Hagerstown reliever Matt Syndenberg had a nice relief outing on 5/16, going 3 shutout innings to help extend the game into extra innings.   His numbers on the season aren’t great though, and this reformed starter probably needs to step it up.

Trends

AAA trends (in rotation order)
Maya        bad,soso,soso,good,great,good,soso
Detwiler    good,good,soso,soso,bad,soso,bad
Meyers    soso,good
Milone    good,soso,soso,bad,great,good
Stammen    good,soso,great,bad,soso,good

AA Trends:
Martis     bad,bad,soso,soso
Roark        bad
Peacock    soso,good,great,good,very good,bad,great
Arneson    soso

Rosenbaum    soso,good,good,soso,good,good,soso
Clegg        soso,soso,soso,unbelievably bad,soso,good
Holder    soso,bad,bad,soso,soso,soso,good
Demny        good,bad,good,good,soso,soso
Selik        soso,bad

Low-A Trends:
Jordan    good,soso,good,good->dl,soso,soso
Grace        good,bad,bad,bad,good,soso,soso
Cole        soso,soso
Ray        great,great
Hansen    soso,good,very bad,very good,soso,soso,good

Top 3 starters deserving promotion: Peacock, Milone, Jordan
Top 3 starters whose jobs are in jeopardy: Martis, Grace, Detwiler

Washington won the first two games of the Florida series, but still faced a very difficult trip to Atlanta, where they are set to face the cream of the Braves’ rotation.  How did they do?

Good

• Jason Marquis got the Atlanta Series off to a nice start, pitching into the 8th on 5/10 for a victory over Tim Hudson (box/gamer).  He retired the first 9 he faced, made a mistake to Martin Prado that turned into a 4th inning homer, worked out of a jam in the 5th then cruised through 7 complete.  Two hits in the 8th turned into 2 more runs, spoiling his otherwise good line: 7 1/3, 7 hits, 2 walks, 3 runs, 3ks.
• John Lannan is an enigma; he followed up last week’s abomination with a good quality start against a playoff team in Atlanta on 5/11 (box/gamer).  Line: 6ip,5hits, 2 runs, 3bbs and 3ks.
• Jordan Zimmermann had a very dominant 103 pitch outing on 5/12 (box/gamer): 6 1/3, 5 hits, 3 runs, 2bbs and 11Ks.  Two of those 3 runs were inherited and allowed to score by Burnett.  The other was a solo HR from Chipper Jones that he absolutely crushed after Zimmermann *barely* missed with two well thrown sliders to run the count 2-0.  He missed his spot by a foot and Jones crushed it.  Our the poorly constructed bullpen conspired to blow the 4 run lead they had been given in the 7th and eventually leaked in the winning run to blow one of the better outings we’ve had out of a starter all year.

Bad

• Livan Hernandez may have reached 5 complete innings in Florida on Sunday 5/8, but he got hammered on the way there (box/gamer).  Final line: 5ip, 8hits, 2 walks, only 2Ks and 6 earned runs.  The Umpire wasn’t giving Livan the corners, and the Florida hitters just waited out his batting practice-speed fastballs to come over the plate.  Livan’s counterpart didn’t seem to mind the umpiring; Anibel Sanchez had a no-hitter through 7 and struck out 11.
• Tom Gorzelanny couldn’t get out of the 5th on 5/13 (box/gamer), putting up an unsightly line: 4 2/3ip, 8hits and a walk leading to 4 runs.  He got torched by the (very tough) first half of Florida’s lineup in the first and Riggleman yanked him when he got into trouble again in the 5th.  He was already on 88 pitches when departing.

Starter Trends

MLB Trends (through gorz 5/13)
Lhernandez    good,bad,good,good,bad,good,soso,bad,good
Marquis    good,good,good,soso,great,bad,good
Lannan    good,soso,soso,bad,soso,good,really bad,good
Zimmermann     good,good,good,bad,bad,good,good,great
Gorzelanny    soso,good,soso,good,great,good,bad

Relievers of Note

• Here’s Henry Rodriguez‘s outing on Sunday 5/8: 6 batters faced, 3 walks, 2 wild pitches, one weak grounder and two strike outs.  1 inning pitched, 1 earned run on zero hits.  27 pitches but only NINE for strikes.  This is just NOT going to cut it.  Further evidence as seen in the 5/12 game, further commented here.
• Is Sean Burnett suddenly becoming a liability out of the pen?  He retired no-one on 5/10, helping to nearly blow a 6-run lead.  He had several clean outings before that, but a stretch in mid-april has his season era near 6.00.  He’s not getting nearly the K/9 rates that he was last year (4.0 this year versus 8.9 last year).  Is his arm hurt?
• How about Drew Storen?  Riggleman still won’t commit to him as the closer, but actions speak louder than words.  As of 5/11’s game (where he earned the win by being the pitcher of record when the team scored 4 in the 11th) he’s pitched 20 2/3 innings and given up ONE run.  And we were worried about him coming out of spring training?  For all those who are talking about whether or not he’s not as “good” as Aaron Crow, you’re crazy.  Give me a shutdown closer over a middle reliever who couldn’t hack it as a starter in the minors any day.

Thoughts on the offense

Riggleman is starting to make the right decisions by playing Wilson Ramos and Laynce Nix more and more, and they’re 2 of the best 3 producing offensive players we have right now.  Its a small sample size, but Roger Bernadina looks like he may stick in the leadoff/center field spot even when Ankiel is back.

Why exactly was Slaten left in to pitch 2+ innings last night? Photo Getty Images via zimbio.com

There’s no other way to put it, after watching the unfolding of last night’s bullpen meltdown; carrying Brian Broderick and Henry Rodriguez on this team is having the effect of shortening the bullpen from 7 guys to 5, and is costing this team wins by not allowing Jim Riggleman to put in the right guys at the right time.

WP Beat reporter Adam Kilgore put it more politely, calling the carrying of two essentially worthless pitchers an “unusual roster construction.”  You know what I call it?  A GM who is hand-cuffing his manager.

I have complained in this space several times (mostly summed up here in this March 2011 post) about the implications of the Nats having 3 of their 12 pitchers (Tom Gorzelanny in addition to Broderick and Rodriguez) be essentially “locked” onto the 25-man active roster.  Its one of my main criticisms of the Josh Willingham deal in general; see my post for more opinion but to have only a right handed reliever who your manager cannot use in return for your #5 hitter of the past two years is my definition of a trade failure).  Gorzelanny has pitched much better than anticipated and his roster spot hasn’t been questioned (though for me, that wasn’t always the case either).

To say nothing of this plain fact: If you can’t trust a reliever to come into a close game and get outs, then he should NOT BE ON THE ROSTER.  Its as simple as that.  And clearly neither Broderick or Rodriguez currently falls into that category.

What is the answer?  Mike Rizzo needs to do three things, almost immediately:

1. Invent another “injury” and put Rodriguez back on the DL.  Send him to extended spring, put him back on rehab assignments and tell him he needs to either throw strikes or take a hike.
2. Call St. Louis’ GM and work out a PTBNL trade for Broderick.  Enough is enough; he projects as a #5 starter (maybe) on a team that has 4 good starters.  Is he really part of the future for this team?  Is he going to be better than any of Detwiler, Maya, Meyers, Solis, or Peacock in 2012?  Because that’s who he’s competing with for rotation spots in 2012 (figuring that at least 3 are already spoken for in Strasburg, Zimmermann and Gorzelanny).  Trade for him so you can option him to Syracuse.
3. With these two spots opened up, recall Collin Balester and call up Cole Kimball so you can actually have two useful guys in your pen who you can trust.  If you’re so in love with Rodriguez’s power, Kimball throws nearly as hard and has put up far better bb/9 numbers in AAA.  Balester has been in the majors before, put up great numbers in 2010 out of the pen, and can pitch long relief if needed as a former starter.

Its time for Rizzo to acknowledge his errors in roster construction and fix them.

(As an aside: Jim Riggleman is not totally without fault here: per Ben Goessling‘s report last night, “Todd Coffey and Tyler Clippard [needed] a night off and Drew Storen [was] being saved for a lead.”  Why let Sean Burnett stay in to get out one of Atlanta’s best hitters in Martin Prado?  Why not bring in Storen at this point and use him as the “fireman?”  Is it because he’s the “closer” and you save your closer for save situations?  I certainly hope this wasn’t his thinking.  A managers *should* use his best relievers in the highest leverage situations, and last night Storen should have been used to get out of a bases loaded jam against a tough right-handed hitter, instead of leaving in a lefty who has struggled lately.  But, this post is more about roster construction than reliever use, a topic for another day, and a larger issue in baseball in general).

AJ Cole may have been the "name" 2010 draftee debut, but Robbie Ray stole the show. Photo: Natsnewsnetwork.blogspot.com

Lots of interesting news for the minor league rotations this time around.  The big news, (and I was as surprised by this news as Sue Dinem over at NationalsProspects.com) was the sudden promotion of both A.J. Cole and Robbie Ray to Hagerstown.  Cole’s promotion makes him the 3rd youngest pitcher in the Sally League (and Ray the 6th youngest) and is a fantastic indicator of the progress these guys have apparently made.  I thought at best they’d play in extended spring until the short seasons start, and then (maybe) play in short-A ball.

Here are the daily links from NationalsProspects, for reference below:

• Saturday 5/7 game reviews (Potomac DH, Selik Potomac Debut, Cole Hagerstown debut)
• Sunday 5/8 game reviews
• Monday 5/9 game reviews (Meyers Syracuse debut, Robbie Ray Hagerstown Debut)
• Tuesday 5/10 game reviews
• Wednesday 5/11 game reviews

Good

• We’ll give Yunesky Maya a “good” for his 5/7 outing: 6⅔ IP 5H 2R 2ER 1BB 7K.  A “real” quality start with a K/inning, only one walk and a WHIP on the day < 1.0.    The third consecutive effective outing for Maya, coupled with a loss of form out of Detwiler, may be putting Maya into the pole position for “first Chief called up” if needed.
• Potomac Ace Denny Rosenbaum put in a great 5/8 outing to salvage one win out of a four-game set against Kinston.  His outing: 7IP 6H 1R 1ER 1BB 7K.  Unfortunately he got a no-decision for his efforts.
• How about Robbie Ray‘s 5/9 Hagerstown Debut?  No-hitter through 4, just one hit (and two batters above the minimum) through 5 complete innings.  Per Kilgore, not only did he not walk a guy, he never went 3balls on anyone either.  59 pitches, 46 strikes.  Line: 5IP 1H 0R 0BB 6K.  Yeah, that’s fantastic, especially for such a young starter.  WP Beat reporter Adam Kilgore wrote up Ray’s debut here.
• Tom Milone had another excellent start in Syracuse on 5/10: 7⅔ IP 5H 3R 3ER 0BB 7K 1HR.  He was perfect through 3 and gave up just one hit through 6.  Oddly, after giving up a few sharp hits in the 7th he was brought back for the 8th, where he gave up a homer and a double before being taken out.  Perhaps the AAA manager was trying to stretch him out a bit, or get him to work through some adversity.
• Craig Stammen helped the Chiefs win their 3rd straight on 5/11 with this line: 7⅓ IP 5H 2R 2ER 0BB 6K 1HR.

Bad

• As Sue Dinem chronicled, Ryan Tatusko “labored” in his latest Harrisburg start on 5/7, giving up 9 hits (including 2 long balls) in just 3 innings pitched.
• Brad Peacock was cruising along in his 5/8 start, having retired 12 of the first 14 batters he faced before just falling apart in the 5th inning.  A walk and then 5 straight hits knocked him out of the game, giving him his worst start of the year.  Final line: 4⅓ IP 6H 5R 5ER 2BB 6K.
• Chris McKenzie got hammered again in Hagerstown on 5/8: 2IP 7H 7R 7ER 2BB 3K.  He probably loses his spot when Taylor Jordan comes off the 7-day DL.

Mediocre/Inconclusive

• Cameron Selik‘s Potomac debut on 5/7 went ok; 6IP 4H 3R 2ER 4BB 3K 2HR.  He must have been amped up for his appearance; 8 of his 10 outs were recorded by fly balls, indicating that his ball was up.  He also issued 4 walks.  Its hard to kill a guy on his debut after a well earned promotion, especially if his only two earned runs were both on homers.
• Spot Starter (presumably) Evan Bronson was the unlucky loser on 5/7, giving up just 1 earned run in 4 2/3 but taking the loss in the bottom half of the double-header.  Line: 4⅔ IP 5H 1R 1ER 2BB 0K.   We’ll have to see if Bronson takes Mitchell Clegg‘s rotation spot after a couple of serviceable outings.
• A.J. Cole‘s debut start in Hagerstown on 5/7 went ok.  His line: 3⅔ IP 5H 2R 2ER 2BB 3K 1HR.  He seemed to scatter the hits and walks well, and may have gotten a rather quick hook in the 4th (he had two outs and had just given up a single, it wasn’t as if he was getting clocked that inning).  He’s got plenty more starts to show us what he has.
• Another mediocre start from supposed ready-for-the-majors starter Ross Detwiler in Syracuse on 5/8.  6IP 6H 4R 4ER 3BB 6K.  He needs to do better; he should be dominating these weaker AAA hitters, not getting bounced around.
• Brad Meyers gets a mediocre for his first AAA start on 5/9; 5IP 5H 4R 4ER 1BB 5K.  He gave up two quick hits and a run to open the game, then retired 10 straight before leaking a 2nd run in the 4th.  In the 5th a leadoff walk came back to burn him, scoring on an infield grounder before a triple scored the 4th and last run he surrendered.  All in all, his ERA will look bad (7.20 on the night) but he only gave up 6 baserunners in 5 innings.
• Erik Arneson had a decent first AA start on 5/9, going for 5⅓ IP 5H 2R 2ER 1BB 6K.  I’m putting it mediocre on account that Arneson is 27 and should be in AAA, not putting up quality starts in AA.
• Michell Clegg‘s 5/9 start was certainly better than his last: 5IP 6H 2R 2ER 1BB 3K.  He’s still  yet to really put in a dominating start in Potomac.
• I can’t quite give Shairon Martis a “good” outing for his quality start on 5/10: 6IP 6H 2R 2ER 1BB 3K 1HR.  Perhaps its because i’m holding him to a higher standard, perhaps its because he’s not really dominating AA hitters like he should.  To me, a guy that pitched a half a season in a big-league rotation should be shutting out AA hitting.
• On the fact of it, Trevor Holder‘s 5/10 line in Potomac was pretty bad: 6⅓ IP 8H 5R 4ER 0BB 2K.  However, reading the game log you get a different story.  After giving up 2 runs in a rough 2nd inning, Holder pitched 4 relatively clean innings.  He fell apart int he 7th though, giving up 4 straight hits and 3 runs.  Still, not enough Ks for me.  Holder has yet to put in a “good” line this season and it should be just a matter of time before Frias or Bronson replaces him in the Potomac rotation.
• Bobby Hansen had a ho-hum quality start on 5/10: 6IP 7H 3R 2ER 3BB 4K.  Too many base-runners for me, despite his getting the win.
• Erik Davis‘s 5/11 start was cut short after 2 innings with a knee injury.
• Taylor Jordan‘s return from the DL in Hagerstown on 5/11 was ok: 6IP 7H 5R 2ER 0BB 0K.  I like the 6ip with no walks, but did not like his 3rd inning; he gave up 6 straight hits to give up 5 runs, though only 2 were earned because of a couple errors thrown in.  All in all, a good return back for Hagerstown’s new “Ace.”
• Paul Demny‘s 5/11 start in Potomac was just on this side of bad: 6ip 4hits, 4runs, 2 walks and 6ks.  He gave up two bombs but still hung on to get the victory.

Relievers of Note and other Thoughts

• MASN’s Byron Kerr featured Potomac’s GWU graduate Pat Lehman in this piece.  He’s definitely pitching lights out as the P-Nats closer, having only given up one run in 11 innings so far this year.
• Jimmy Barthaimer let Saturday’s 5/7 Harrisburg game get completely out of control, giving up 5 earned runs in just an inning.  It sounds as if some shaky defense and a missed call caused him to lose his focus.  It happens (especially in the minors, where neither umpires or your defense is as good as you need it to be on the mound), but you have to work around it.  To make matters worse, he followed this performance up on 5/11 by giving up 5 runs in 3 relief innings (albeit with 5 Ks).
• Matt Chico‘s attempts to convert to being a reliever continue to go badly, getting shelled on 5/11 to the tune of 2IP 5H 5R 4ER 0BB 1K 1HR.
• Selik seems to have taken Marcos Frias’ rotation spot for the time being, though the rain-out/double headers in Potomac make it somewhat difficult to tell for sure.  Someone definitely has to make way though; I can’t see the team going to a 6 man rotation.
• Jeff Mandel continues to look sharp in the Syracuse pen, holding a 0.57 whip through 7 innings.
• Cole Kimball looks nearly as good in the Syracuse pen, having yet to give up a run through 11 2/3 innings and the first week of march in the closer role.  He’s got a bit too many walks but lots of Ks and not a lot of hits.
• There must have been something in the water in Harrisburg on Sunday; after Peacock fell apart both Matt Chico and Carlos Martinez both got hammered as well, contributing to a 15-6 loss.
• Josh Smoker may be finally putting it together in Potomac; he has 1 ER in 11 2/3 innings through 5/8.  A bit too many walks, but he’s also getting lots of Ks.  He worked out of a jam quite nicely on 5/10.
• Christopher Manno keeps on cruising; 2 scoreless innings and another 2Ks on 5/8 give him a fairly ridiculous line on the season right now.  22ks versus 2bbs in 14 1/3 innings as of 5/8.  There are guys in the Potomac bullpen holding on by a thread (Wort and Olbrychowski in particular) that could make way, soon.
• Ryan Mattheus, a AA reclamation project at this point in his career, is pitching pretty well post-surgery.  One run allowed in 12 innings on the season so far.  He’s a former 40-man member and is probably a bit too experienced for AA, but it is a good sign that he’s pitching well.
• Matt Grace seems to have lost his rotation spot with Jordan’s return from the DL and the promotions of Cole and Ray.

Trends

AAA trends (in rotation order)
Maya        bad,soso,soso,good,great,good
Detwiler    good,good,soso,soso,bad,soso
Meyers    soso
Milone    good,soso,soso,bad,great,good
Stammen    good,soso,great,bad,soso,good

AA Trends:
Martis     bad,bad,soso,soso
EDavis    good,soso,good,bad,soso,incomplete (knee injury)
Tatusko    soso,bad,bad,soso,good,bad
Peacock    soso,good,great,good,very good,bad
Arneson    soso

High-A Trends:
Rosenbaum    soso,good,good,soso,good,good
Clegg        soso,soso,soso,unbelievably bad,soso
Holder    soso,bad,bad,soso,soso,soso
Demny        good,bad,good,good,soso
Selik        soso

Low-A Trends:
Jordan    good,soso,good,good->dl,soso
Cole        soso
McKenzie    good,bad,bad,bad,good
Ray        great
Hansen    soso,good,very bad,very good,soso,soso

Top 5 deserving promotion: Manno, Rosenbaum, Lehman, Kimball, Mattheus
Top 5 whose jobs are in jeopardy: McKenzie, Wort, Olbrychowski, Barthmaier, Tatusko

Despite being in our system for years, Ross Detwiler is still “really young” for AAA. Photo: Haraz Ghanbari/AP via federalbaseball.com

Following up on a previous post discussing the “age appropriateness” of pitchers in the minor leagues, I thought it would be interesting to look at the pitching staffs at the Nationals various affiliates and take a look at the ages.  NOTE: I did most of this analysis prior to the promotions of AJ Cole and Robbie Ray to Hagerstown.  I’ll put in notes about them in the appropriate section.

To review, based on dividing the ages of every pitcher in each league into quartiles, and then naming the quartiles, here’s our starting point:

Here’s an affiliate-by-affiliate look at the pitching staffs, their ages and how that age is “ranked.”  Syracuse first:

Not surprisingly, several names (Martin, Mock) are included as being “old” for the level.  Maya is a special case of course.  Ironically, a lot of these players are young or really young for the level.  Of note would be Tommy Milone, who is the 23rd youngest pitcher in the International league (out of 193 pitchers) and is holding his own in the rotation.  Ironically, Ross Detwiler “seems” to be much older than he really is, since his name has been in the minds of Nats fans for years, but he’s still quite young even for AAA.  Brad Meyers recent promotion counts him in the younger category as well, a good sign for our continued player development.

Trivia: The youngest pitcher in the International League was (at the time of this analysis) Julio Teheran, uber-Braves prospect who turned 20 in April and is seemingly ready for his MLB debut.  The rich get richer.  In fact, he did get promoted and made a start on Saturday 5/7 for Atlanta.  Meanwhile the oldest pitcher in the International league is Mark Hendrickson, who last appeared in a minor league game in 2003.  He didn’t make the Orioles’ roster out of spring and is trying to hang on.

Here’s Harrisburg:

What is concerning here is the number of “Really Old” pitchers we have on the staff in Harrisburg.  Luckily they’re all relievers, not considered key prospects going forward.  The best starter in AA (Brad Peacock) is quite young for the level (22nd youngest of 166 hurlers in the league).  Other starters in Harrisburg are on the “right side” of the median, including Davis and Martis.  Tatusko is getting too old for the level (hence my prediction that he’d be promoted prior to the season), and probable rotation replacement member Arneson is definitely too old for the level to be considered a prospect.

Interesting trivia; the oldest pitcher in the Eastern league is one Kei Igawa, who also holds the distinction of being (in my opinion) the worst FA starting pitcher ever signed based on dollars per win for the life of his contract plus posting fee.  Meanwhile the youngest AA pitcher is Detroit Tiger’s 2009 1st round pick Jacob Turner, who is holding his own after getting drafted out of high school.

Here’s Potomac:

By virtue of the number of college pitchers we’ve drafted in the past couple of  years, we have a stockpile of these guys who now make our Potomac roster seem relatively old.  Our ace in Potomac Danny Rosenbaum is almost exactly the median age of pitchers in his league (he’s listed as “old” but missed the cutoff by a few days).  Same with newly promoted Cameron Selik, who now pitches in a league where he’s almost exactly the average age.  Potomac’s 2nd most effective starter this season has been Paul Demny, who is the 15th youngest pitcher of a 112 in the league.  Its great to see such a youngster pitching so effectively.  Meanwhile Mitchell Clegg and Trevor Holder are relatively old for the level already and are struggling this year, a sign they may be moved to the bullpen or be defined as “non-prospects” sooner or later.

Lastly, here’s Hagerstown pre Cole and Ray:

All things considered, we’re fielding a relatively young-for-the-level pitching staff in Hagerstown.  The two youngest starters (Bobby Hansen and Chris McKenzie) are right at the 25th percentile cusp (so they’re still young for the league but not amazingly so).  That being said, Hansen is probably Hagerstown’s 2nd most effective starter after Taylor Jordan, and they’re both young for the league.  Even the two oldest starters in Hagerstown (Matt Grace and Paul Applebee) are both right around the median age for pitchers in the league.  Selik was very old for the league before earning his promotion, possibly a sign that his age allowed him to dominate younger guys.  Only the bullpen guys are “old” or “really old” for the league, and even they are not “overly” old.

AJ Cole and Robbie Ray, named to the team over the weekend, become the 3rd and 6th youngest pitchers in the league.  This is all the more interesting considering Ray’s sterling 5/9 debut.

Summary

The younger guys we have in Syracause are for the most part the prospects; the older guys are mostly organizational arms not likely to feature in the majors.  We are definitely “old” in both Harrisburg and Potomac, all the more concerning since both staffs are struggling.  I like how young we are in Hagerstown, considering just how well that team is playing (19-10, 1/2 game out of first having played a ton of away games so far).