Could the Nats really get Crews? Photo via Crecent City sports
With the Nats picking #2 overall in a draft that, for months, everyone thought was basically solidified in terms of who was going #1 overall, I’ve not done my typical “Mock draft” analysis/collection work.
But, in the days leading up to the draft, we’re hearing all sorts of crazy rumors and last minute shuffling of names going right ahead of us. So, lets talk about those rumors, talk about what’s going on, and then opine as to what the Nats should do.
Rumors: Dylan Crews has given an 8-figure bonus demand, is advised by Boras, and has told Pittsburgh he doesn’t want to play for them.
Well, I can’t blame him if any of these rumors are true. Crew could very well be pushing for an 8 figure bonus, and its not that much of a reach given that slot for 1-1 this year is $9,721,000. But, we also know that Pittsburgh has in year’s past gone the “under-slot 1-1 deal” route to spread more money around in later rounds. So, there’s definitely a possibility that they could go to a player like Wyatt Langford, who most people think goes 3rd overall (slot value $8,341,700) and say to him, “hey, we’ll give you $8.5M to sign right now) and he’d be ecstatic to take it, and Pittsburg nets more than $1.2M of excess bonus money,
Is Crews being overly demanding? Could he be calling the Nats and say I want $10M and the Nats (who have 1-2 overall for slot value of $8,998,500) would say, “ok we’ll find $1M elsewhere” and Pittsburgh just says knock yourself out? Maybe. But if Crews is doing this, its a dangerous game. If he falls too far down the road with a $10M signing bonus demand, he’ll quickly find himself priced out of the market altogether. The slot for #5 overall, for example, is just $7.1M, and there’s just no way a team like Minnesota blows $3M of surplus dollars on Crews when they can land one of the prep kids Clark or Jenkins there for $3M less. And Crews would be an idiot to go back to school; his value is maxed out right now; there’s no way he gets more next year; you can only go down from 1-1. I’d also point this out; this isn’t the 2010s when you could shop around for bonus dollars with no pools defined; teams have slots, they have penalties for going over, and I don’t really believe any rumor that an agent would advise a player to give up $9.7m in search of $10m.
Now, could Crews be telling Pittsburgh he doesn’t want to play for them? Sure. And I wouldn’t blame him in the least. Pittsburgh is one of the worst run franchises in the sport. They went 20 years without making the playoffs, not even getting to 80 wins, from 1993 to 2013. Then after a brief playoff run, they bottomed out after 2016 and have been basically dead last since. They were the 2nd worst team in the league last year, they never spend money, and they’ve proven to be awful at player development (just look at Gerrit Cole’s numbers in Pitt versus the second he left). The largest FA contract they’ve EVER SIGNED was a 3/yr $39M deal, and the largest contract extension they’ve ever committed to was a shade over $100M. So, yeah, if you’re a generational player, do you really want to go to Pittsburgh and basically play out the string while they bumble around for another 10 years without a winning season?
Maybe Crews is telling Pittsburgh he won’t sign for less than $10M, then calling Washington and saying he’ll sign for slot. That’d be a real “screw you” to Pittsburgh by Crew’s “advisor,” but it’d guarantee that both the player and the Nats get what they want: Crews would still get $9M, he’d be out of Pittsburgh, and the Nats would get the #1 player in the draft.
Rumor: Pittsburgh wants Skenes more than Crews now.
This is what the latest BA mock draft thinks. Pittsburgh may have seen the CWS and seen Skenes’ capabilities and decided to go that way instead of dealing with whatever Crews says. If that’s the case … the Nats take Crews and are ecstatic about it. Its the easiest 1st round prep they’ve ever had to do.
What if both Crews and Skenes are still on the board?
Well, if that’s the case, and the Nats havn’t done some switcheroo promise to Crews, I think (as Law does) that they’ll sign Skenes to slot instead of blowing an extra $1M to give Crews his $10m demand. I mean, you can’t go wrong, but the Nats love the famous guy, Skenes is certainly famous, he’s right in line with our Strasburg pick, and he fits a pretty big need.
Hey, I’ll be happy with either guy. Skenes could be in the majors by June of next year, Crews will be a stud. Can’t go wrong either way .
First draft of this post? 8/10/21 when Perfect Game updated its Virginia rankings for the 2021 prep season and added in some top-level DC area players.
The College players are mostly drawn from my 2020 Local High School draft coverage, listing guys who were HS seniors in 2020 who went to 3-year programs and who are now draft eligible.
2023 could be a real banner year for DMV guys; we legitimately have two potential 1st round high school players, which I can’t remember the last time happened, as well as several collegiate 1st rounders who project as high as top 10.
Reminder: on the Draft Tracker resource, I have a tab specifically for DC/MD/VA local players that I generally try to track each year. I’ve spec’d out the top prospects who are likely to drafted alraedy for 2023.
Major Local College Draft Prospects for 2023
Kyle Teel, C/Util UVA (by way of NJ hs): 2022 2nd team Pre-season d1baseball AA as a sophomore. top of 2023 collegiate draft class per D1baseball Feb 2022. Projecting as mid 1st rounder by BA for 2023. Keith Law projects as high as 6th overall.
Matt Shaw, 2B UMaryland. top 100 of class of 2023 per D1Baseball. Mid 2nd rounder per BA, moving up late 2022 per MLBPipeline (late 1st rounder). Law now has him mid-1st rounder.
Jake Gelof, 3B UVA; drastically improved power numbers sophomore year, now projecting as 2nd rounder.
Jack Hurley, OF, Virginia Tech. True CF, slashed .375/.452/.664 with 14 homers sophomore season.
Lesser Local College draft eligibles w/ Local Ties
Carter Tryce, 2B/OF ODU (by way of ?? HS). top 100 of class of 2023 per D1Baseball.
Jason Savacool, RHP UMaryland. top 100 of class of 2023 per D1Baseball.
Trey Gibson, RHP Liberty (by way of Grafton HS in Yorktown, VA): 2021 Freshman AA. top 25 of 2023 collegiate draft class pre-2022 season per D1baseball. Liberty’s Friday night starter. Mid 2nd roudner per BA fall of 2022.
Luke Shliger, C UMaryland. Struggled early 2023, but a C who can hit will always get drafted.
DC/MD/VA Local Prep players for 2023
Bryce Eldridge, RHP/1B Madison HS. #2 in the state, #18 nationally in class in Mid 2021. Huge kid 6’8″ can hit mid 90s as a sophomore, easy velocity and sinking action from huge height. USA Prime summer team, Alabama commit. Bats L, throws R. #14 in the Class per BA in Feb 2022, again in May 2022. Projecting to upper 90s as a 6’8″ thrower. Projecting as supp-1st rounder Fall2022. 18U USA baseball team. MLBPipeline Dec 2022 as at #26. Law projects going in the 1st round teens (#17).
Jonny Farmelo SS Westfield. #9 in 2021 state PG rankings, UVA commit. Now ranked #86 per BA’s list Feb 2022. #76 on BA’s July 2022 list. #52 MLBpipeline Dec2022. Law projecting end of 1st round possibly.
Cameron Johnson, LHP IMG Academy (was McNamara, Forestville, MD). #55 on BA’s Feb 2022 list. LSU commit, blew up at WWBA last October. #44 July 2022 on BA list. Mid 90s from a big guy 6’5″ wow. Area Code Games 2022. 18U USA baseball team. MLBPipeline has #50 Dec2022
Lesser DC/VA/MD prep players of note.
Tommy Roldan, LHP/OF Georgetown Prep via Poolesville. UVA commit, Area code Games 2022. 92 from the left hand side.
Brody Shawn, RHP West Potomac HS. Pop-up mid 90s velocity, Wake Forest commit. #88 on BA’s feb 2022 list.
Bryson Moore, RHP/1B Fairfax HS: #6 in 2021 state PG rankings, UVA commit
Brett Renfrow, RHP Colgan. #12 2021 PG state rankings, Virginia Tech commit
Jack McDonald, RHP/SS Independence . #15 2021 PG state rankings, ECU commit
Marcus LeClair ? position, Gonzaga HS. #18 2021 PG state rankings, UVA commit
Extended DC/MD/VA Prep players (outside DC Area) on the radar.
Blake Dickerson; LHP; Ocean Lakes HS, Virginia Beach, Va. Big tall lefty, Low 90s as a 17yr old. 18U USA Baseball team summer 2022. Virginia Tech commit. MLBpipeline top 100 Dec2022. Mayo called him out specifically here in his Dec 2022 newsletter.
Tayshaun Walton, OF (corner), IMG Academy (was Maury HS Norfolk) . #1 player in the state as of 2021, UMiami commit. #5 nationally. Could blossom into a mid-1st rounder. Dirtbags summer team, 6’3 220, tons of power. Justin Upton comp. #28 ranked by BA Feb 2022. #75 BA list July 2022, falling somewhat. Not in MLBpipeline’s top 100 Dec2022
Soto opted out, Judge is hurt, and neither Stanton or Harper is earning an all-star nod.
So, if you wanted to put together the absolute best possible HR derby roster, factoring all these lists in, here’s who you’d want. I’m including players we know are injured right now, but astericking them and then adding on players at the bottom until we get to 10.
Pete Alonso: 2-time winner, top10 in HRs both this year and last year. Has to be here.
Juan Soto: 2022 champ, really should be defending his title.
Shohei Ohtani: 2023 active leader, defending MVP, well on his way to being 2023 AL MVP, leads majors in ISO. Its ridiculous he’s not in the derby this year.
* Aaron Judge: 60+ homers last year, 2017 champ.
Giancarlo Stanton. Top-10 active HR leader, 2016 champ.
Kyle Schwarber: top10 in HRs both this year and last year, some of best pure power in game.
Mookie Betts: top10 in HRs both this year and last year, perennial MVP candidate.
* Mike Trout: future Hall of Famer who sits 4th in active HRs despite being only 31.
Ronald Acuna: The guy is on pace for a 40 hr, 80 steal season and is the likely NL MVP.
* Bryce Harper: the only remaining former HR derby champ not yet mentioned, on pace for 500 career homers.
Paul Goldschmidt: top 10 both in 2022 and active.
Luis Robert: #3 this season in both active HRs and ISO. Averaging 32 homers/162 games as a CF.
Matt Olsen: #2 this season in active HRs, #2 in the league in ISO. Huge power guy.
Now, if you want some wild-cards, i’d also accept these players just because:
Julio Rodriguez: runner-up in 2022’s derby, last year’s ROY, one of the best young players in the game.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr: runner-up in 2019, huge power, big personality.
Randy Arozarena: exploded onto the scene, a showman.
Fernando Tatis Jr: another high-profile young player we need to be showcasing.
Austin Riley: power-first guy who finished top 10 last year.
Corbin Carroll: 18 homers and 24 SBs at all star break, could press for 40/40.
Big Board: the big board shows the rotations, plus the starters and the roles of the relievers as best as I can figure. Furthermore, the rotations are in the correct “order” and synced across the system.
Changes in the last month: None. The rotation has been surprisingly static for a last place team.
Observations: Irvin officially supplanted Kuhl in the rotation after a couple of starts after his call-up, and when Kuhl came back Irvin stayed in the rotation and Kuhl went to the pen. That is, until about a week ago, when the team gave Kuhl his outright release waivers. They didn’t bother with the whole DFA dance; they knew that they were going to eat his $2M salary, so they just summarily released the guy so he could move on. Side note: Baseball is a good living: $2M for 3 month’s work.
Irvin was looking a bit shaky for a while, but his four starts in June were solid, and his last two were really good. His seasonal numbers are now about where Corbin’s are. Meanwhile, Grey has been stellar lately and has pushed his season ERA+ into the upper 120s. Williams has held his own and looks like a promising possible trade candidate for a team looking for some innings. Gore had a sketchy month that has inflated his ERA and peripherals, but still looks like the top 100 prospect he has been since high school.
Next guy to get cut/demoted: Nobody really. They’re not going to cut bait on Corbin, Williams is holding his own, the other three guys are here to stay as important pieces of the new-look future state Nats rotation. Remember; it only took the Nats three years to go from 59-103 to 98-64.
AAA Rochester:
Rotation: Peralta, Rutledge, Urena, Adon, Banda.
Changes since Last Month: Abbott got called up to the MLB pen, where he’s stayed, and Rutledge has taken his place after his late June promotion. Espino also got called up briefly but is back now, and may re-take Banda’s spot in the rotation (or not: Banda threw a decent start on 7/1; maybe he’s transitioning back to a starter role). Tommy Romero continues to be the first long man/spot starter out of the pen.
Observations; None of these starters really had a good month in June. Banda was the worst, making 5 starts, only going 19 innings in those starts, and giving up 14 ER along the way. Urena had a 5.68 ERA in June, which actually lowered his seasonal ERA of 7.17. Same with Peralta: a 5 ERA month has improved his seasonal stats. The fact that we keep giving these guys (aged 34 and 31 respectively) starts is proof positive that our pitching depth has gone to pot. Adon actually had a decent month. There’s no real point in talking about Espino; we already know he’s a better reliever than a starter, yet the team continues to push him as a starter in AAA. Rutledge got shelled in his first AAA start, but he’s more than earned the promotion.
Next guy to get promoted: Espino. But nobody’s “earning” another promotion right now.
Next guy to get demoted or released: As with last month, the moment they need a spot Urena or Peralta are gone.
AA Harrisburg:
Rotation: Cuevas, Troop, Hernandez, Saenz, Parker , plus Henry
Changes in last month: Saenz got promoted up to cover for Rutledge, when he got promoted on 6/27. Henry done with rehab and in AA but sits on the developmental list as of 6/30.
Observations: Henry’s first two starts back were horrific, so as we speak he sits on the developmental list. When Rutledge (correctly called as next guy to get promoted last month) moved up, Saenz (who had seemingly solved high-A) moved into his spot. The guy with the best month was Parker, who had a 1.35 ERA in four starts and has turned around his fortunes significantly (he was last month’s “Next guy to get demoted”). Cuevas continues to struggle (but is only 22), as does Troop (who is continuing to be the innings soaking long-man/spot starter he served in last year). Hernandez has been quietly effective with pretty amazing control; he walked just 2 guys all month.
Next guy to get promoted: Nobody really; perhaps Hernandez
Next guy to get demoted or released: I still think Cuevas looks over matched, but the first guy to make way if Henry comes back off Dev List probably is Troop.
Changes in Last month: Saenz promoted to AA (as predicted last month), Bennett promoted up from Low-A, Huff moved to bullpen
Observations: Wilmington has too many arms to put up with poor performance, which is why Chance Huff is now in the pen with his 6.12 ERA. Meanwhile, Wilmington seems to have too many starters and something may give soon. Lara continues to confound this observer, with another month of 5 ERA work on top of his 5+ ERA work all last year. Why he’s in High-A at this point is amazing, consider he couldn’t get guys out at Low-A and is incredibly young for the league. Meanwhile, Andrew Alvarez continues to impress, with a very solid month with a 1.77 ERA in his last four starts. Bennett has kept producing upon his promotion: first three stats in High-A featured a 1.29 ERA. He needs another month in Wilmington but I see nothing to indicate he shouldn’t keep on moving up. I Still think he was started way too low for a major conference Friday night starter 2nd round pick. Anyway. Caceres just got moved up and got shelled in his first start, too soon to tell. Theophile also had a solid month, lowering his seasonal era significantly. Luckham looks like the odd-man out of this rotation right now, though his ERA is much higher than it deserves to be based on his WHIP.
Next guy to get promoted: Alvarez
Next guy to get demoted or released: Lara, again.
Low-A Fredericksburg
Rotation: Lord, Cornelio, Young, Tolman, Susana, with Atencio making spot starts
Changes in Last month: Bennett promoted and replaced with Lord. Sanchez to the DL, replaced with Young. Caceres promoted, replaced with Tolman.
Observations: The Fredericksburg rotation had a great month, with all 5 of its main starters featuring sub 3.00 ERAs all month and two of them getting promoted. Cornelio had a 2.30 ERA on the month but still walks too many guys. Lord has moved up from the bullpen to take a spot in the rotation for now and his holding on, with a 2.35 ERA on the month. Same with Luke Young, who’s earned another few turns in the rotation. Susana looks the best of them with a 1.02 ERA for the month as he seems to improve month over month. Tolman got bumped up from the rookie league (as he should have been, since he’s 23) and threw zeros in his first start. Even Atencio, who was demoted out of the rotation in May, got in on the action, throwing a spot start and dealing.
Next guy to get promoted: Susana
Next guy to get demoted or released: Nobody for now.
Rookie Florida Complex League
Rotation: Zapata, Ogando, Leon, Polanco, CSanchez, Agostini
Changes in Last month: none; this is the first go-around for the FCL
Observations: First off, the concept of a “rotation” in the rookie league probably is laughable, considering the sheer number of guys on this roster and the number of off-days they get. But a semblance of an organized rotation has taken shape. Tolman started in the rotation, threw three outings giving up just one run and got moved up. The rest of this rotation? Entirely comprised of IFAs; 5 of them 2021 IFAs and Sanchez being a 22IFA. So far: Sanchez, Ogando, and Leon are getting shelled; each has an ERA in the 9 or 10 range. Polanco and Agostini are relatively competent; ERAs in the 4-5 range. Both are probably better than their ERAs; its hard to have an 5+ era with an opponent BAA of .212 as Polanco has. Last you have Zapata; 0.75 ERA through 4 starts, but he’s got a 1.50 whip, so he’s dancing out of a lot of danger.
Next guy to get promoted: Maybe Zapata, probably instead one of the bullpen guys.
Next guy to get demoted or released: Ogando or Sanchez
Dominican Summer League
Rotation: Portorreal, Farias, HMoreno, Oliveros, Rivero
Changes in the last month: none; this is the first go-around for DSL
Observations: Ok, so we know the DSL Nats are terrible (they’re 2-18 as of this writing), but it isn’t because of the pitching. Ok, its not *entirely* because of the pitching. Its primarily because their entire starting batting lineup are 2023IFAs signed in January. They’re all children. And they’re not hitting at all. (Meanwhile, one of the Dodgers’ DSL teams is 20-0 to start the season, and their other team is in 2nd place of the division. Why don’t we have two DSL teams?? Why doesn’t everyone??)
The rotation so far is up and down: Rivero only has 3 strikeouts in 10 innings; that’s not gotta cut it. Farias and Oliveros have BAAs in the .320-.340 range. Also not going to cut it. Moreno has a solid BAA but has nearly as many walks as IP. The best performer so far has been Portorreal, a 23IFA so he’s young. 5 starts, 2.45 ERA, looks solid. A great signing so far, especially for his bonus amount.
In case you’re wondering, here’s the IFA tracker for bonus amounts to get a sense of who’s supposed to be performing. Nearly all our big bonus guys were batters; the biggest bonus pitcher went to a guy on the DL all year. Portorreal got just $10k that we know about, Moreno and Rivero were 23IFAs who probably got 10k or less. The other guys in this rotation; Oliveros in 22 for >$10k and Farias, who was a 19IFA and is still in the DSL; he’s rule-5 eligible after this season!
Next guy to get promoted: Portorreal
Next guy to get released: ERivero
Conclusions: most of my predicted promotions from last month took place, and we’re getting a ton of impressive results out of Low and High-A. Still need to see Henry get back into the swing of things to make me feel better.
House working his way back up the rankings. Photo via primetimesportstalk.com
Now that we’re past CWS, but not yet to the draft, lets clear out some psots.
If a major prospect scouting shop publishes a top 30 list, you know i’m all over it. On June 15th, BA did so for our team. Here’s an analysis of the list, looking at players who rose/fell against BA’s list in January, as well as how BA’s rankings for a player may be out of whack with the general consensus by all the major shops.
Here’s the Mid-Season BA top 30 list in order:
BA Rank 6/15/23
Last Name
First Name
Position
1
Wood
James
OF (Corner)
2
Hassell III
Robert
OF (CF)
3
House
Brady
SS/3B
4
Green
Elijah
OF (CF)
5
Cavalli
Cade
RHP (Starter)
6
Rutledge
Jackson
RHP (Starter)
7
Vaquero
Cristian
OF (CF)
8
Bennett
Jake
LHP (Starter)
9
Susana
Jarlin
RHP (Starter)
10
De La Rosa
Jeremy
OF (Corner)
11
Lile
Daylen
OF (CF)
12
White
T.J.
OF (Corner)
13
Henry
Cole
RHP (Starter)
14
Cruz
Armando
SS
15
Lara
Andry
RHP (Starter)
16
Irvin
Jake
RHP (Starter)
17
Lipscomb
Trey
3B
18
Ferrer
Jose
LHP (Reliever)
19
Pineda
Israel
C
20
Brzykcy
Zach
RHP (Reliever)
21
Alu
Jake
3B
22
Quintana
Roismar
OF (CF)
23
Millas
Drew
C
24
Parker
Mitchell
LHP (Starter)
25
Cronin
Matt
LHP (Reliever)
26
Saenz
Dustin
LHP (Starter)
27
Young
Jacob
OF (CF)
28
Baker
Darren
2B
29
Acevedo
Andy
OF
30
Solano
Edwin
SS
Now, here’s some observations.
Same top 2 for BA as in January, and confirming that Wood may be the best player we got in the whole post-World Series dumping. He’s settled a bit since his AA promotion, but still has an OPS north of .800 in AA at age 20.
They’ve elevated House a couple spots, and they have him higher than anyone else had him this spring at #3. Why? Because he forced his way into High-A a couple of weeks ago and looks recovered from back and wrist issues. 2023 OPS so far: .829. not bad.
Big Riser: Rutledge; #9 in January, #6 now and in stark contrast to other shops, one of which has him all the way down at #17. And who can blame them? So far in 2023; 11 starts, 3.18 ERA, 1.11 whip in AA. Last year in Low-A: 20 starts, 4.90 ERA, 1.39 whip. I mean, who would have predicted that you’d take a guy who couldn’t get guys out in Low-A, bump him up two levels, and suddenly he’s a top prospect again?
Jake Bennett bumped up 3 spots from #11 to #8. It was probably dumb to start the guy in low-A as a 2nd round pick from a major conference with CWS experience … and rightfully so, he dominated it in April and early May. Lets hope he pushes for another promotion and ends the season in AA.
Daylen Lile: what is going on here? BA had him at #27 in January, basically a non-prospect, now he’s #11 in the system. A true CF with some power and a ton of speed (18 SBs in 19 attempts) and he’s hitting in low-A; he needs a promotion. But where will he go? High-A has 40-man player De La Rosa in CF, AA has Hassell, AAA has Alex Call. In this humble opinion, the Nats could (finally) cut bait on Antuna, who is hitting f*cking .151 in High-A after getting outrighted off the 40-man and it confounds me why he still plays, so as to make some room for Lile or Green, both of whom may need to be promoted soon.
Cole Henry treads water at #13, a bit lower than other shops. Its a “show me” season for Henry, to see if he’s recovered from a major shoulder issue. My hops are not high.
BA has bumped up Jake Irvin, rightfully so. He may be posting a 5.25 ERA in the majors, but at least he’s in the Majors … which, remember, is the entire point of prospects. Should Irvin be ranked higher than guys like Susana (#9) or Lara (#15), who can’t get guys out in the bus league? Yes he should.
Trey Lipscomb gets a bump up a few spots. He’s quietly made his way to AA a year after being drafted … think about this? Lipscomb was a 3rd rounder last year and is in AA, but Bennett was a 2nd rounder and is in High-A. Why? Lipscomb may be in AA due to positional scarcity; he’s not earning it at the plate with a sub-700 OPS figure right now, and he may very well trade spots with House in a few weeks when Brady needs to get moved up and play 3B.
#21 Jake Alu gets back onto the rankings after being dropped out of the top 30. #21 seems about right for a 4-A corner infielder/outfielder type.
Quintana dumped 5 spots, and rightfully so. He’s struggling in Low-A, and they’ve moved him to be a 1B/DH type. Not good; he’s gonna have to really hit to move forward as a 1B only guy.
Mitchell Parker has taken a nose-dive, from #14 in Jan to #24 today. Rightfully so; he’s finally getting hit after succeeding in Low and High-A in the last couple of years. I think this was an inevitability; scouts never favored the guy, who seemed to be getting outs mostly due to deception and a funky delivery. in AA, he’s been exposed so far. One of 2 things happens from here: he either “figures out the level” in early 2024 and keeps on moving, or he’s relegated to be “funky lefty out of the pen” guy, a role that might get him to the majors faster.
Matt Cronin also dumped a ton of spots, from #18 in January to #25, and rightly so; he’s getting shelled in AAA as a 25-yr old lefty bullpen arm. Word of caution; if they’re a reliever in college … they better be a really, really good reliever to count on them going forward.
Dustin Saenz pops onto the list at #26 after not being ranked by practically anyone for a while, on the strength of his dominating low-A and getting moved to Wilmington. Unfortunately, he was already too old for low-A, made one start in high-A and got shelled. We’ll see where he goes from here.
Jacob Young also resurrecting his prospect career, popping in at #27. the 2021 7th rounder without a ton of prospect cred hit .300 in high-A and got moved up to AA, where he’s sharing an OF with two of our best prospects in Hassell and Wood. He’s only 23, and he’s got some speed even if he’s undersized. Should be interesting to see where he goes.
Another guy without much prospect love pops in at #28: Darren Baker. I mean, the guy is now in AAA, starting at 24, hitting .300. I’m not sure why he’s not a higher-ranked prospect honestly. Maybe b/c he’s got a limited ceiling as a utility 2B guy in the majors.
The last two guys ranked were the top 2 prospects from the 2023 IFA class, Andy Acevedo and Edwin Solano. I call these types of prospects, “Call me in 3 years if/when they show up in Florida.”
Jan 2023 top 30 players now off the list:
#16 Thad Ward: probably has exhausted his rookie status at this point.
#23 Evan Lee: what happened to this guy? Went from AFL darling to 40-man to a lefty reliever who can’t get guys out in AA at age 26.
#26 Gerardo Carrillo; Maybe we over-rated this guy all along. Ok, maybe *I* overrated this guy all along. Initially he presented as a more important player in the big Scherzer/Turner trade; we got back Grey, Ruiz, Carrillo, and Casey. Clearly Ruiz and Grey were the prizes, Casey a utility throw in (who’s now 27 in AA hitting .201), and we have Carrillo, who has never really shown he can get guys out above A Ball and is on the season-ending DL list right now.
#28 Tim Cate: BA was one of the last hold-outs on the Tim Cate prospect bandwagon in January, now even they can’t find room.
#29 Aldo Ramirez: 8 good starts for Low-A in 2021, and he hasn’t pitched since. Missed all of 2022, still on the 60-day dl halfway through 2023. Will he ever come back?
#30 Will Frizzell, the Mr. Irrelevant of the Jan 2023 list. The team over-promoted him in the off season, quickly exposed him in AA as he hit .155, now he’s back in High-A where he should have been, hitting a healthy .889 OPS figure. Problem is … he’s been a full time DH this entire year, not even taking the field at 1B. Unless he’s posting a thousand OPS figure, its hard to be a prospect like that.
Other Notable names not ranked:
Brenner Cox: not every prospect shop likes him, and he couldn’t even come close to cutting it in Low-A this year. Might be a wasted prep 4th rounder.
Jared MacKenzie: he hit .400 in low-A last year, true CF. He’s not bad. Would you put him above a 1B only guy who’s the same age but in a lower league? Probably.
Seth Shuman: Looked great in High-A until a sudden season ending injury (which screams TJ); no wonder he’s not on the fringes of the top 30.
Samuel Infante, Brandon Boissiere, Jackson Cluff: what happened to these guys?
The Final of the 2023 CWS couldn’t have featured two better teams for the marquee matchup of the year. Florida entered the tournament as the #2 overall seed and was 4th in RPI, having been a mainstay in the top-25 rankings for most of the year. LSU was the #1 ranked team for a good part of the season before slipping to #7 as the tourney started, was 5th in RPI, was the 5th seed in the event, and features the likely first 2 picks in the draft.
Here’s how the finals between Florida and LSU played out. I thought that Florida had the huge advantage by virtue of setting up their rotation, and based on the fact that LSU burned its ace Paul Skenes to get into the event.
Game 1 LSU’s #2 starter Ty Floydpitched the game of his life, going 8 innings with 17 Ks to keep his team in a close game. LSU chased Florida’s ace Brandon Sproat early but Florida’s bullpen held strong. LSU’s big hitters came up strong all game: Crews scored the lead off run, their cleanup hitter Dugas hit a solo homer in the 3rd, and the previous game’s hero White tied the game in the 8th with a solo shot. Like the LSU-Wake Forest CWS semi final, this went to the 11th inning, where another big bopper from LSU (their DH Beloso) blasted a homer to right for the game winning run.
Game 2: Florida exposed LSU’s lack of pitching depth badly, setting a CWS scoring record and making it embarrassing in the later innings, winning 24-4. Florida’s 1st round stud Wyatt Langford went 5-5, a triple shy of a cycle (he hit a double in the 8th that he just couldn’t leg out a triple on). Amazing hitting performance.
Game 3: We were setup for a cringe-worthy appearance from Skenes, who sits on 3 days rest from his epic 120 pitch performance, and the LSU coach probably is saying to himself, “If i don’t get some zero run innings out of my ace, we’re not winning this thing.” However, LSU’s big bats just exploded, with Dylan Crews going 4-6 with a walk, Tommy White going 4-7, and LSU ran away with it in the same way Florida ran away with game two. Sunday starter Tommy Hurd (who entered the game with an era in the 6s) had one of his best career performances, holding Florida to 2 hits in 6IP, and by the time Skenes started throwing a heavy ball in the bullpen LSU was up by a touchdown and their coach (thankfully) kept him out of the game. LSU wins a laugher 18-4 behinds 24 hits and takes home the crown for the first time since 2009.
Your 2023 College World Series Champion: LSU
Here’s some links to past years of CWS coverage here. I’ve been doing this for 10 years now! Each link below is the blog post covering that CWS final
We’ve seen the last of Paul Skenes’ college career.
We’re through to the CWS final in Omaha. Let’s recap the group play with some notes.
In the Top Bracket (#1 Wake Forest, Tennessee, #5 LSU, #8 Stanford)
In the opening games, Wake Forest survives a strong push from Stanford, winning a game they probably didn’t deserve to win. Meanwhile, LSU topped Tennessee behind another show of force from Paul Skenes, who threw 120+ pitches and pitched into the 8th in a game they had in hand.
In the first elimination game, Tennessee’s Chase Dollander got pulled after three innings (not a good sign for his 1st round draft prospects) but sophomore Chase Burns threw 6 shut-out innings to help eliminate Stanford.
In the winner’s bracket game, Wake Forest showed some serious mettle to get another come-from-behind win against LSU to advance to the Group final.
In the play-in game, LSU faced off against Tennessee yet again (three times in the regular season, once again a few days ago), and they won again, blanking the Volunteers 5-0 and sending them home.
In the group final, Wake Forest’s coach made a crucial, critical error allowing his beleaguered starter to pitch to LSU’s cleanup masher with 1st base open … and Cade Beloso delivered with a 3-run homer that stood up. Wake is forced into a winner-take all game, which means both Wake and LSU burn their #1 starters ahead of the CWS finals.
In the winner take all game … LSU gets to throw its ace Skenes again, and he goes against Wake’s ace Rhett Lowder. What a match-up. And it lived up to the billing, with the two aces trading zeros for 8 innings. Amazingly, Wake pulled Lowder as he sat on 88 pitches through 7; why pull him? He completely out-pitched Skenes on the night and could have probably pitched 9 complete if you gave him 110 pitches. I don’t get it. Meanwhile, Skenes needed 120 pitches to complete 8 ip; 2 hits, 1 walk, 9 Ks on the night. LSU gets a walk-off from its burly, fluffy haired, gold-chain wearing third baseman Tommy White to win the game and break Wake’s heart.
Final Group standings: LSU, Wake Forest, Tennessee, Stanford
In the Bottom Bracket (#2 Florida, TCU, Oral Roberts, #7 UVA)
In the opening games: fans couldn’t ask for two better openers in Omaha. In the first game. Oral Roberts game up 3 in the 8th but then scored 4 in the 9th to shock TCU with a 6-5 win. In the nightcap, UVA completely blew a game they had under control, giving up 3 runs in the bottom of the ninth as UVA’s coach let a reliever give up two homers (one a 456-foot rocket from top-5 draft pick Wyatt Langford, a single, a walk and a HBP to load the bases before finally going with his stopper, who promptly gave up a Sac fly to lose the game. Just a ridiculous coaching job.
In the first elimination game, UVA capitulated to TCU to become the first team eliminated, as their two big hitters went o-fer in the game.
In the winner’s bracket game, Florida edged Oral Roberts by the skin of their teeth, getting out of a bases-loaded one-out jam in the bottom of the 9th to move into the group final.
In the play-in game, Oral Roberts faced TCU again, and couldn’t repeat their magic one more time. TCU’s arms controlled the game and sent the Cinderella ORU home 6-1.
In the group final, Florida faced off against TCU slightly fresher and with their Sunday starter on tap. And the #2 team delivered, scoring a run in the top of the 9th and making it stick to edge TCU and take the group undefeated.
Final Group standings: Florida, TCU, Oral Roberts, UVA
CWS Preview and Prediction: one of the things I hate about the CWS final is that it gives the teams, who have been playing basically every day for a week, just one day off before a Sat-Sun-Mon final. This badly penalizes teams for getting their pitching stretched, and (for me) may dictate who wins. But logistically you can’t keep kids in Omaha for a month, so it is what it is.
Florida took their regional in 3 straight, so they have their starters lined up exactly as they want. #1 starter Sproat will have 8 days rest, Waldrep will have 7 days rest, and if needed Caglianone will have 5 days rest. Meanwhile, they won’t have to face Skenes again, and have a huge advantage in the final. LSU will presumably throw their Saturday starter Ty Floyd on 4 days rest, then their #3 starter Ackenhausen on 4 day’s rest, then the kitchen sink if they make it to Monday. LSU doesn’t really have a Sunday starter; they gave starts to 9 other guys besides their top two starters on the season, many of them with ERAs in the 7s. Advantage Florida.
Here’s who i think these teams will throw as starters:
Game 1 Sat 6/24: Florida’s Brandon Sproat vs LSU’s Ty Floyd
Game 2 Sun 6/25: Florida’s Hurston Waldrep vs LSU’s Nate Ackenhausen
Game 3 Mon 6/26: Florida’s Jac Caglianone vs LSU’s bullpen
Prediction: Florida in three.
Top Draft Players to watch in the final:
Florida: Wyatt Langford, projected top 5 pick. Saturday starter Hurston Waldrep as a 1st round projection. Friday night Brandon Sproat and infielder Josh Rivera are 2nd/3rd rounders.
LSU: You know the names: Skenes, Crews primarily, but big hitters White and Belosi.
Cole Henry unleasing another pitch, hoping he doesn’t incur another arm injury. Photo via mlb.com
We’ll take a quick break from CWS to talk about prospect rankings.
So, believe it or not, the final major pundit in the prospect ranking space has finally dropped its “preseason ranking” list for the Nats. Kiley McDaniel and Fangraphs released their pre-season Nats top 31 list last week (its 31 instead of a more normal number because they drive the notable prospects by their internal “Future Value” rating, and the Nats happened to have exactly 31 guys meet the threshold; other teams had many more or far fewer).
McDaniel’s list is … well, its different. I’d say that more than half his rankings are what i’d describe as wild deviations from the rest of the industry. Lets get into it. Here’s his full list:
Fangraphs Rank
Last Name
First Name
Position
Yr
1
Wood
James
OF (Corner)
2021 2nd
2
House
Brady
SS/3B
2021 1st
3
Cavalli
Cade
RHP (Starter)
2020 1st
4
Vaquero
Cristian
OF (CF)
2022 IFA
5
Henry
Cole
RHP (Starter)
2020 2nd
6
Millas
Drew
C
2019 7th
7
Hassell III
Robert
OF (CF)
2020 1st
8
Susana
Jarlin
RHP (Starter)
2022 IFA
9
Baker
Darren
2B
2021 10th
10
Lile
Daylen
OF (CF)
2021 2nd
11
Green
Elijah
OF (CF)
2022 1st
12
Rutledge
Jackson
RHP (Starter)
2019 1st
13
Bennett
Jake
LHP (Starter)
2022 2nd
14
Irvin
Jake
RHP (Starter)
2018 4th
15
Cruz
Armando
SS
2021 IFA
16
Acevedo
Andy
OF
2023 IFA
17
Pineda
Israel
C
2016 IFA
18
Shuman
Seth
RHP (Starter)
2019 6th
19
Ward
Thad
RHP (Starter)
2018 5th
20
Brzykcy
Zach
RHP (Reliever)
2020 NDFA
21
Alu
Jake
3B
2019 24th
22
Lipscomb
Trey
3B
2022 3rd
23
White
T.J.
OF (Corner)
2021 5th
24
Saenz
Dustin
LHP (Starter)
2021 4th
25
Willingham
Amos
RHP (reliever)
?
26
Parker
Mitchell
LHP (Starter)
2020 5th
27
Cate
Tim
LHP (Starter)
2018 2nd
28
Ferrer
Jose
LHP (Reliever)
2017 IFA
29
De La Rosa
Jeremy
OF (Corner)
2018 IFA
30
Ramirez
Aldo
RHP (Starter)
2018 IFA
31
Cox
Brenner
OF (CF)
2022 4th
So, commentary from the top:
The top of his list is ok: Wood, House, Cavalli, even given Cavalli’s TJ.
Vaquero at #4: we havn’t seen a rating this high for Vaquero since before the Soto trade pumped up the system with actual, real prospects and not bonus-dollar-amount prospects. This is just ridiculously speculative.
Cole Henry at #5 really puts a ton of stock into him recovering fully from TOS, which (ahem Stephen Strasburg) is just not a guarantee. Early reports on Henry are good, but so far in his collegiate and pro career he’s presenting as incredibly delicate.
Here’s where it starts getting weird: Drew frigging Millas is at #6, AHEAD of Robert Hassell. You know where MLBpipeline had Millas? 30th. Baseball America? 25th. Prospects1500? 38th. Keith Law? Not even mentioned in his top 30. I mean, i get that he’s done well so far this year, but this was supposed to be a pre-season list, and the dude hit .211 in AA last year. Furthermore, he’s projecting as a backup catcher at the MLB level! I don’t get it.
Darren Baker getting some deserved love, up at #9 when many shops don’t even rank him.
Daylen Lile at #10. He hit .219 in rookie ball two years ago then missed all of 2022 with TJ, but he’s #10 in the system ahead of a guy in Elijah Green that some pundits have at #2.
Green at #11. Crazy low, as was Hassell.
No love for Jake Bennett, dropping him out of top 10 to #13. I’m thinking his 2023 performance so far will correct that going forward.
Andy Acevedo, the next in a long line of Nats prospects ranked highly b/c they got a lot of money in the IFA signing window despite nobody knowing a thing about them. Tell me; why is a 16yr old prospect in the DSL more highly ranked, ever, than a college guy whos in AAA? I honestly wonder why anyone who’s never even made it to a domestic league is ranked, ever.
Seth Shuman gets some love at #18, though i’m not sure why. He had lesser numbers than a guy like Parker at the same level, and is out for the entirety of 2023, but he’s ranked higher.
TJ White dumped to #23 when most shops have him at #10. Did we not count 2022 for White?
Dustin Saenz ranked at #24 when nobody else is ranking him at all. Interesting, especially since he’s lighting it up right now (finally) and may get promoted soon.
A first time for Amos Willingham to get ranked anywhere; this 17th rounder from 2019 has started 2023 on a roll, being basically unhittable in AA and earning a promotion to AAA.
Tim Cate hanging on at #27, an odd choice given the other rankings here.
Lastly, Jeremy De La Rosa, a stalwart in the top 10, comes in at #29. It seems to be because fangraphs has given the guy like a 20 hit tool.
Notable Omissions:
Andry Lara: outside the top 31, Generally in the 12-15 range on other lists. I mean, I get it; the guy hasn’t performed in either low-A or high-A. He’s also 20; if he was from the US he’d be a sophomore pitching in a regional right now, not in high-A.
Roismir Quintana: outside their top 31, usually in the 15-18 range. He was on the FCL all star team last year, but apparently has been squeezed out of the low-A OF and is playing 1B this year. A 6’1″ 1B only bat better hit the tar out of the ball, and he hasn’t.
Matt Cronin: Outside top 31 on fangraphs, usually at least mentioned in the low 20s elsewhere. I guess lefty relievers don’t get a ton of prospect love.
Jared McKenzie: Not a huge omission, just noting that others have him in their mid 20s.
Gerardo Carrillo; how far this guy has fallen, from AA starter prospect to a full season injury early in 2023. Not sure what it was, but it smells like TJ.
So, at long last, that’s the end of the Nats prospect rankings for the season. Here’s a link to each list:
We’re through the super regionals, and have a CWS field that is, frankly, stacked. It’s going to be a great CWS.
First, lets recap the Supers.
#1 Wake Forest v #16 Alabama: Wake Forest squeaked out a 5-4 opener, then blasted Alabama 22-5 to move to Omaha. In 5 post-season games, Wake has outscored its opponents 75-16. Wow.
#8 Stanford v Texas: Stanford lost the first but turned things around to squeak past Texas. In game 2, starter Quinn Matthews was allowed to finish a CG on 156 pitches despite an 8-3 lead in one of the more egregious abuses of a starter we’ve seen in the college game in some time.
#5 LSU v #12 Kentucky: LSU blasted Kentucky in game 1 as Paul Skenes wasn’t over-worked (as we can’t say the same for Matthews), getting yanked at 101 pitches in their 14-0 win. They finished off Ky 8-3 on Sunday.
Tennessee v Southern Miss: Tennessee came from a game down to advance past Southern Miss.
TCU v #14 Indiana State (TCU = host instead of the seed due to Indiana State hosting the Special Olympics): this cost Indiana State, as TCU took two straight to advance.
Oregon v Oral Roberts (Oregon = host); Oral Roberts blew a 5 run lead in game one, and STILL managed to advance, becoming just the 3rd fourth-seed from a regional to make it to Omaha since the expansion to 64 teams. (Stony Brook and Fresno State).
#7 UVA v Duke; Duke took out UVA in game one and looked good, but UVA took the next two to advance.
#2 Florida v #15 South Carolina: Florida took two close ones from South Carolina to advance.
Super Regional predictions vs Actual: I only got 4 of 8 in my previous predictions.
CWS Field (with original national seeds driving the teams):
Group 1 (1,4,5,8): Wake Forest, Tennessee, LSU, Stanford
Group 2 (2,3,6,7): Florida, TCU, Oral Roberts, UVA.
Prospect Watch. From Nats perspective all eyes are still on LSU, but now Florida is here too, meaning 3 of the likely top 5 picks are in Omaha for a star studded CWS from a prospect/scouting perspective. Here’s Keith Law’s take on the 15 major draft prospects in Omaha.
LSU: Dylan Crews and Paul Skenes, projected to go 1st and 2nd overall
Florida: Wyatt Langford, projected top 5 pick, along with another arm in Hurston Waldrep as a 1st round projection. A bit further down: Brandon Sproat, Josh Rivera.
Tennessee: Chase Dollander, who was in the 1-1 mix but who has struggled, continues to build up draft sock. A bit further down: Maui Atuna.
Wake Forest: Their RHP Rhett Lowder is a possible top 10. 3B Brock Wilken end of 1st round. A bit further down: Sean Sullivan LHP.
Virginia: their Catcher Kyle Teel and 3B Jake Gelof both top 50 prospects.
Stanford: SS Tommy Troy is a mid-1st rounder
TCU 3B Brayden Taylor an end of 1st rounder
So, lots of draft talent on display in Omaha.
My Predictions?
Group 1: Wake Forest over LSU in the group final, with Tennessee getting a win and Stanford going 2 and out.
Wake leads the nation in pitching … by a full POINT in team ERA. That’s amazing. And they’re no slouches at the plate either, as we’ve seen as they’ve averaged 15 runs a game in the post-season (they’re 5th in team OPS). So that’s a very balanced team. LSU likely throws Skenes in game one against Tennessee, but Tennessee’s been using Dollander as their 2nd starter, so they’ll throw him in an elimination game against Stanford to get an LSU rematch with both teams on their 3rd starter. But LSU’s pitching depth only goes so far, and Wake basically has 3 friday night starters to blow through the draw. Unless Skenes can get another start LSU will struggle to get past Wake and falls in the national semis.
Group 2: Virginia over Florida, with TCU and Oral Roberts finishing 3rd and 4th in some order. UVA leads the nation in team BA, is third in ERA, and will find a way to win. The problem is that UVA plays Florida in the opener and has proven to be a slow starter. But they’re deep and can withstand an early loss.
final: Wake over UVA in an all-ACC CWS final despite half the regional hosts being SEC.
Your likely 1-1 overall pick, Dylan Crews from LSU
So, in years’ past, when the Nats were drafting somewhere besides the top 5, analyzing mock drafts was a lot more fun. We could look at who was predict to go at the top, then we could analyze all the myriad of names that could conceivably fall to the nats wherever they were picking.
In 2023 though, this exercise has proven to be pretty simple. There’s basically two guys who practically every pundit thinks will end up on our team, so this collecting of mock draft exercise seems futile.
Here’s some early takes on the 2023 draft class, with some mocks. By May, consensus amongst most scouts was the same top 5 in some varying order, then a gap to 6 and beyond.
Top 5 expected to be ( not necessarily in this order):
Dylan Crews, OF from LSU, is the current #1 overall projection. Hit 349/.463/.691 as a sophomore for LSU with 22 homers. Plays CF but likely a corner in pro ball at 6’0″ 200lbs of power.
Max Clark, a prep OF from Indiana with an all-Lefty speed/hit tool comparable to Jacoby Ellsbury. Possible 5-tool lefty who can hit 96 on the mound. Vanderbilt commit, isn’t getting to college. Struck out just 3 times in his entire junior season while slashing .577/.717/1.126.
Walker Jenkins, a prep corner OF from NC. Commit to UNC. Underclassman on 18U national team, Projects to 30-home run power, had more walks and homers than Ks his Junior season.
Wyatt Langford, OF, Florida. Huge bat, led Florida in slash lines in 2022 and now projects as a possible CF, turning him into an upper-end 1st rounder.
Paul Skenes, RHP, LSU: Air Force xfer who is helium guy based on Fall 2022 work. Big arm. Exploded onto the scene in Spring 2023, added velocity, now expected top 2 picks.
Other names who appeared in earlier top 5 lists but who have dropped include:
Chase Dollander, the RHP Friday starter for Tennessee in 2022. 103/13 K/BB in 79 innings, 2.39 ERA for Best team in college baseball in 2022. Shooting up draft boards with Jacob deGrom comps in 2022, but struggling in 2023. Slipping down the boards.
Jacob Gonzalez, SS from Ole Miss. Middle of the order bat, slashed .355/.443/.561 for Ole Miss his sophomore season while leading team to CWS title.
Jacob Wilson, SS Grand Canyon. All WAC as a freshman, starred for Team USA summer 2022. Stock increasing late 2022, rising up.
Here’s some early Mock Drafts that we’ve seen. Nats pick #2 but we’ll put in the top 5 for context.
BA 2023 Way Too Early mock 7/20/22 (as in, the day after the 2022 draft): Crews, Clark, Dollander, Jenkins, Gonzalez. This is before we knew that the Nats would pick #2, and there’s no way they’re leaving top-end college talent on the board in a college-rich draft to pick a prep kid like Clark.
BA 2023 Draft Class Rank 7/25/22: Clark, Crews, Jenkins, Gonzalez, Dollander. Crews would be a very, very solid pick at #2, despite our top three prospects also being OFs.
BA First Full Mock post lottery 12/7/22: Crews, Dollander, Langford, Wilson, Gonzalez. Dollander as the top arm would be great, but beware his spring season as Tennessee’s Friday night starter.
MLBPipeline Mock draft 12/15/22 with top 100 release: Crews, Dollander, Clark, Skenes, Langford. MLBPipeline notes that they went chalk to their top 100 at the top, noting that Dollander is the “best pitching prospect since Strasburg.” Fitting if the Nats get him.
So, what do I think will happen? I think Pittsburgh, a notoriously conservative franchise in the draft, will cut a small deal with Crews (giving him the same $$ that he’d get at 2nd overall) and take him 1-1. A positional player is less risky than a pitcher, always. This then lets the Nats take the big arm, the guy who everyone says is the best pitching prospect since Strasburg, and they can start him in High-A or AA like with Strasburg, with an eye on getting to the majors maybe by late 2024.
What if the Pirates take Skenes? Then the Nats trip over themselves to take Crews. I don’t care how many OF prospects we have right now … Crews is that good. I don’t buy that Langford can play CF (if he could, he’d be doing so), and I’d rather have a college guy versus a prep guy.
What if the Pirates don’t take Crews or Skenes? If this happens … I think the Nats take Skenes.
