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2017 Draft coverage; Prospect ranks, important links and local players of note

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Scout-MLB-draft-central-2017-640

2016’s version of this post.

Its Draft Day!

The 2017 MLB rule-4 (Amateur) draft starts  6/12/17 at 7pm.  The MLB Network will have full coverage of the first round of picks. This post is my dumping ground of draft coverage for 2017.

This post uses last year’s format, with links to use to see draft prospect rankings, links to help cover the draft (which I personally come back to time and time again), some blurbs on local players of interest, and then links to a bunch of mock drafts.

Draft Coverage so far at NAR for 2017:

  • Local Draft prospects of note for 2017: namely, J.B. Bukauskas, Adam Haseley and Pavin Smith (see more below)
  • Mock Draft Overview for 2017.  The same top 5 names seem to appear … and the Nats are more and more rumored towards a problem child.

Draft Links of importance

  • MLB.com Official 2017 Draft Central home page.
  • MLB’s Awesome 2017 Draft Tracker; you can slice and dice the draft 10 different ways, search by schools and home states, etc.
  • Official MLB 2017 Draft Order, including slot values for the first few rounds. Nats pick 25th, then 65th, then 103rd, then 133rd and 30 more each add’l round.
  • Official Draft Bonus Pool totals for 2017.  Minnesota most with $14M, Nats have about $5.5M.
  • MLB Draft Database for all past drafts.
  • Baseball-Reference Draft Tools: links to their draft database plus some custom reports.
  • MinorLeagueBall.com’s 2017 Player profile index; an index of their profiles of all the top-end draft prospects for this year.

Here’s a slew of Draft Prospect rankings : these are NOT the same as mock drafts; these are independent rankings of the players without consideration to draft considerations.  Apologies in advance; many of these are insider/subscription.  Fork over the dollars and subscribe and support baseball coverage that you like!

(Pundits to track: D1Baseball, ESPN Law, MLBpipeline, MinorleagueBall, USAToday, BaseballAmerica, PerfectGame, Scout.com, MLBDraftReport, BeyondtheBoxScore)

Notice how nearly EVERY list has Greene as the best prospect in this draft?  That’s pretty consistent view … but there’s no chance that Greene goes #1 overall.  So thanks to the perverse risks associated with drafting prep kids, yet again we will likely see the best prospect not getting taken #1 overall.  This seems to happen nearly every year since the Strasburg/Harper drafts.   In 2011, Gerrit Cole went 1-1 when Anthony Rendon should have been.  In 2012 i think the “right guy” went 1-1 (Carlos Correa).  Imagine the Astros right now had they taken Kris Bryant instead of Mark Appel (who didn’t sign and who has yet to matriculate to the majors) in 2013 1-1 overall.  Brady Aiken 1-1 overall in 2014 was defensible at the time … but Carlos Rodon was the presumed 1-1 heading into the spring season.   I don’t think anyone disputes the Dansby Swanson 1-1 pick in 2015 (it was a weak class), but few think that Mickey Moniak was the best prospect in the 2016 class (most had it as Jason Groome or Riley Pint;  Groome fell to 12th thanks to some off-the-field stuff and is now hurt while Pint is struggling in low-A).  So its good to be the 2nd team picking this year.


Now, some news about College Players with local ties who are serious draft candidates (meaning first couple of rounds projected or present on top 100 draft ranking lists).  Note that I’ve got a far, far larger list of local players that I’ll follow-up on after the draft; these are just the significant/top 10 round types.

  • J.B. Bukauskas: has had a fantastic junior season and has become perhaps the 2nd best collegiate pitcher this class.  Still undersized … but there are some 6’0″ guys with success in the majors right now.
  • Adam Haseley: has rocketed up draft boards by being perhaps the 2nd best two way player in college baseball.  Upper 1st round talent.
  • Pavin Smith: 1B only but a sweet, solid bat.  Upper 1st round talent.

At this point, all three of these players are projecting in the first half of the first round; no other local player seems close.  There’s a slew of other local college kids mentioned in the BA top 200, which means they’re all likely 5th-8th round material.

Local Prep players of note who are serious draft candidates: none this year.  Unlike last year, where Joe Rizzo and Khalil Lee both were top 5 round picks, there’s nobody anywhere in the DC/MD/VA landscape that is threatening to be a top-end prep pick (at least as far as I can tell right now).

Nats Re-Draft players of interest: these are guys who the Nats have previously drafted but who did not sign.  Using the Nats Draft Tracker as a guide, here’s some prep guys we drafted generally in 2014 who are now rising college juniors and are bigger names in this draft:

  • Stuart Fairchild, OF from Wake Forest: we drafted him in the 38th round in 2014; he’s now perhaps projected mid 2nd round.
  • Evan Skoug, C from TCU: we drafted him in the 34th round in 2014; now he’s perhaps projected as a 3rd rounder.
  • Tommy Doyle, RHP from Flint Hill HS/UVA: we drafted him in the 35th round in 2014, probably as a hat-tip to a local kid more than a possible signee.  He’s projected as a 6th rounder after a decent career at UVA coverting to relief.
  • Quinn Brodey, RHP from Stanford: we drafted him in the 37th round in 2016; now he’s perhaps a 6th-7th rounder projected.
  • Morgan CooperRHP from UTexas; we drafted him in the 34th round last  year in 2016: he chose to stay in school to build value and now is projected as a 5th-6th rounder.
  • Tristan Clarke and Cory Voss: two Juco draftees from 2016 who are draft eligible for 2017.  Clarke started for UNO and put up solid numbers, albeit in the weaker Southland conference.  Voss only played part-time at UofA and isn’t a draft prospect.
  • Other Prep draftees in 2014 not mentioned here who are not draft prospects:

Mock Drafts

See separate Mock Draft post.


 

2016 Prep Baseball Update #5: Players of the Year/All-State lists and final rankings

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This is post #5 of High School Tourney coverage for 2016.  Here’s the schedule:

In this post, we will publish all the various Teams of the Year, players of the year and other individual accolades.  I’ve been publishing these as i found them in prior posts, but here they’re all listed as best as I can find them.

Lists in Red are pending results; I’ll update this post as the results come in even post publishing.


Individual Player Accolades 

Gatorade announced their player of the year awards on 5/24/16.  (Link to all Gatorade/USA Today players of the year per state)

  • Maryland: Spalding’s Tyler Blohm won the Maryland award.  17th round pick by Baltimore, committed to Maryland.
  • Washington DC: St. John’s Cam Remalia (by way of Waldorf, MD) won the DC award.  Committed to Coastal Carolina.
  • Virginia: Flint Hill’s Khalil Lee won the Virginia award.  3rd round draft pick and Kansas City signee.
  • Washington Post All-Met teamsJake Agnos is the 2016 All-Met Player of the year.  In two seasons for Battlefield, he was 18-0 with a 0.60 ERA and 265 strikeouts in 134 1/3rds innings.
  • (Also, here’s a fantastic list of all All-Met teams in all sports going back to 1991 that I’m spinning into a “where are they now” post to be done sometime in the future)
  • Virginia All 6-A North Regional team: Jake Agnos, LHP Battlefield (ECU commit) is the Pitcher of the year, Jared DiCesare, Chantilly (George Mason commit) is the Player of the year.
  • Virginia All 6-A South Regional teamFox Semones, SS/RHP Hylton (James Madison commit) is the Player of the Year.
  • Virginia All 5-A North Regional teamAlex Smith C from Mountain View (Navy commit) is Player of the year.
  • Virginia All 5-A South Regional teamMichael Blanchard, RHP Nansemond River (Old Dominion) is player of the year
  • Virginia All 4-A East Region teamGrey Lyttle, 3b/OF from Hanover (High Point) is 4A East player of the year.
  • Virginia All 4-A West Region teamBrendon Doyle, OF from Kettle Run (VMI) is 4A West player of the year.
  • Virginia All 3-A East Region teamNoah Murdock, RHP from Colonial Heights (Virginia commit) and Nationals 38th round draft pick,  is the player of the year
  • Virginia All 3-A West Region teamDrew Calohan, RHP from Rustberg HS is 3A West Player of the year.   Ferrum commit.
  • Virginia 2-A and 1-A All-Regional teams: pending; not sure if they’re even done.
  • VHSL All-State Teams:
    • 6A VHSL All State Team: Jake Agnos, LHP Battlefield is the 6A Player of the Year.  Committed to East Carolina.
    • 5A VHSL All State TeamMichael Blanchard, RHP from Nansemond River, is the 5A player of the year.  Committed to ODU.
    • 4A VHSL All State TeamGrey Lyttle, 3b/OF from Hanover is 4A player of the year.  Committed to High Point.
    • 3A VHSL All State Team: Drew Calohan, RHP from Rustberg HS is 3A player of the year.   Committed to Ferrum.
    • 2A VHSL All State TeamMatt Pinson, RHP from Maggie Walker (Richmond) is the 2A player of the year as a *junior*.
    • 1A VHSL All State TeamBryson Booher, RHP from Ft. Chiswell (SW of Roanoke) is the 1A player of the year.   Committed to Concord University.
  • VISAA’s All-State teams, Division I, Division II and Division III.  Khalil Lee (Flint  Hill) is the Division 1 player of the year.  Harry Brown (Greenbrier Christian) is Division II player of the year.  Andrew Lowe (Southampton Academy) is Division III player of the year.
  • VHSCA (Virginia High School Coaches Association) All-State Teams: all pending for 2016: I gave up waiting for them and published.
  • Maryland MIAA All-State teams: No POTY’s announced.  The “A” team is dominated by players from Spalding and Calvert Hall, and includes Tyler Blohm.  The “B” team is dominated by the two best B teams: Boy’s Latin and Annapolis Area Christian.
  • Prep Baseball Report VA/DC All-State Team; published 7/1/16: Jake Agnos is their player of the year.
  • NovaBaseballMagazine’s “Nova Nine” for 2016:  Jake Agnos is their player of the year.
  • NovaBaseballMagazine’s alternative “Nova Nine” lists.
  • NovaBaseballMagazine’s selection panel (made of coaches and staff) has selected All conference teams for all the Northern Virginia-based conferences; click on the “Standings” link from their home page, navigate down to the division in question, and you’ll get the final 2016 conference standings, then the results of the conference tournament, and the all conference team.  I’m not sure if these are “official” all-district teams or if these are NBM’s staff selections.
  • All Loudoun-County Team: announced 6/29/16.  Will Schroeder, RHP/SS for Loudoun County HS named POTY … as a sophomore.
  • Free Lance Star All-Fredericksburg 2016: announced 6/30/16. Alex Smith C from Mountain View (Navy commit) is Player of the year.
  • American Family Insurance All-USA Baseball TeamsRiley Pint, P from Kansas and 4th overall pick was POTY.   Tyler Blohm was 2nd team.  Nolan Jones (UVA commit) also 2nd teamer but likely signs after getting drafted in the 2nd round.
  • American Family Insurance All-State Baseball Teams: released 6/30/16.
    • Virginia: Flint Hill’s Khalil Lee won the Virginia award.  3rd round draft pick and Kansas City signee.
    • Washington DC:  St. John’s Cam Remalia (by way of Waldorf, MD) is POTY.  Committed Coastal Carolina.
    • Maryland: Spalding’s Tyler Blohm won the Maryland award.  Committed to Maryland.
  • Louisville Slugger High School All-Americans: announced on or about 6/17/16.  Zack Hess (Liberty Christian), Joe Rizzo (Oakton), Khalil Lee (Flint Hill) all first teamers.  Harold Cortijo (a junior!) from Riverdale Baptist 2nd team. 
  • American Baseball Coaches Association/ABCA/Rawlings High School All-Americans: released 6/23/16.  Khalil Lee 2nd team all-american.
  • ABCA/Rawlings High School 2016 All Region Team for the Mid-Atlantic: familiar names Khalil Lee, Joe Rizzo, and Tyler Blohm on the all-Region 2 team.
  • USA Today All-Americans: not sure if they do their own or if the multiple “American Family Insurance” teams are the official USA Today Teams.
  • Baseball America All-Americans: released 6/21/16.  No Local players named, to the chagrin of Jake Agnos proponents.
  • The Baltimore Sun’s All-Metro Team released 6/17/16.  Tyler Blohm the player of the year.
  • Richmond Times-Dispatch All-Metro teamGrey Lyttle, 3b/OF from Hanover POTY.
  • (the 2016 Richmond Times-Dispatch All-Metro team link also has prior POTYs dating to 1993).
  • Virginian Pilot All-Tidewater team: Michael Blanchard, RHP Nansemond River (Old Dominion) is player of the year.  Second Team link here.
  • (and here’s a list of the All-Tidewater players of the year since 1993 for fun)

If you know of *any* all-anyone team in a publication or official site that i’m missing, please let me know.


Local and National High School Baseball Ranking Lists: Updated for the final rankings.

  • Washington Post All Met Sports Final Area top-10 ranking: Riverdale Baptist, Spalding, St. Johns DC, Chantilly, Battlefield top 5.  Madison, who was consensus #1 for practically the entire season, doesn’t even make the top 10 after its early Regional loss.
  • NovaBaseballMagazine.com Final Rankings of all NoVA teams dated 6/13/16: Chantilly, Battlefield, Kettle Run, Mountain View, Hylton.
  • PrepBaseballReport Final VA State-Wide Power25 Rankings: Hanover, Greenbrier Christian, Liberty Christian Academy, Chantilly, Nansemond River.
  • Baltimore Sun Top-10 Poll Archives: Final 5/23/16 ranking.  Perennial power Spalding has been at the top for a good chunk of the season.  Spalding, Chesapeake AA, Severna Park 1-2-3.
  • The Virginian Pilot Top-10 for Hampton Roads area: Final 5/31/16 poll: Private school powerhouse Greenbrier Christian, Grassfield and First Colonial 1-2-3.
  • Richmond times-Dispatch Richmond-Area top-10: 6/14/16 Final poll: 4-A state champ Hanover, Collegiate, Mills Godwin 1-2-3.
  • MaxPreps All-Virginia Rankings: 6/13/16 so basically Final Virginia rankings: Hanover, Grassfield, Liberty Christian Academy, Chantilly, Paul VI.
  • USA Today’s National High School Super 25 (“Expert”) Rankings 6/22/16 Final rankings: Hanover rises to #8, Spalding rises to #13, and Chantilly gets in at #23.
  • USA Today’s National “Computer” Rankings 6/22/16: Assuming Final at this point: Hanover at an astounding #4, no other local teams ranked.
  • USA Today’s Super 25 North East & Mid Atlantic Regional Rankings 6/22/16 Final: Hanover & Spalding 1-2 in the region.  Also includes Chantilly at #5, Riverdale Baptist #7.
  • Baseball America Top 50: dated 6/16/16: Chantilly finishes #28, Riverdale Baptist #39.  Final?
  • MaxPreps “Excellent 25” ranking: 6/13/16: Hanover #21.  Final?
  • MaxPreps “Excellent 50” rankings: 6/13/16: Hanover #21 and no other local teams mentioned.  Final?
  • MaxPreps Computer Rankings 6/27/16: Hanover #5.  You have to scroll pages to find the next local teams (ranked in the 75-100 range). Final?

These National rankings are dominated by teams in Texas, Florida and California, as you might expect.  These teams can play nearly 40 games and usually have at least 15-20 under their belts before DC/MD/VA teams even get going.  So its somewhat of an accomplishment just to have a local team get some recognition.  In fact, any cold-weather state team appearing in these lists is pretty special.

Major Newspaper Links/Resources for following prep baseball around the state

Local Newspaper Coverage, including links to many local papers covering smaller jurisdictions.

Non-newspaper Links for Local and National Prep Baseball Coverage

Good Twitter accounts to follow:

  • https://twitter.com/toddeboss/lists/prepbaseball: I maintain an open list at my twitter account via this link, which contains direct links to dozens of local resources (including all the below).  Way too many retweets from the travel team accounts especially, but its a good way to keep up with local ball.
  • https://twitter.com/PBRVirginiaDC: Prep Baseball Report VA/DC coverage
  • https://twitter.com/NVBaseballMag: NoVa Baseball Magazine
  • https://twitter.com/NoVAHSBB
  • https://twitter.com/DynamicBaseball

Pre-2016 Draft coverage; mocks and local players

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Kansas prep star Riley Pint may not go #1 overall, but he'll be close. Photo via thatballsouttahere.com

Kansas prep star (and subject of Jeff Passan’s latest book “The Arm”) Riley Pint may not go #1 overall, but he’ll be close. Photo via thatballsouttahere.com

The MLB rule-4 (Amateur) draft starts tonight, 6/9/16 at 7pm.  The MLB Network will have full coverage of the first round of picks. This post is my dumping ground of draft coverage for 2016.

This post uses last year’s format, with links to use to see draft prospect rankings, links to help cover the draft (which I personally come back to time and time again), some blurbs on local players of interest, and then links to a bunch of mock drafts.

Draft Coverage so far at NAR for 2016:

  • Here’s the big post on all marquee DC/MD/VA prep players ahead of the 2016 season (only guys who are “significant” draft prospects are mentioned here).
  • Here’s the same for DC/MD/VA tied College players
  • After the draft happens, I’ll review both of the above posts and list who actually got picked and who’s going to school.

Draft Links of importance

Here’s a slew of Draft Prospect rankings : these are NOT the same as mock drafts; see further down for those.  You’re going to see the same locally tied names on nearly all of these lists; they’re all individually profiled further below.


 

Now, some news about College Players with local ties who are serious draft candidates (meaning first couple of rounds projected or present on top 100 draft ranking lists).  Note that I’ve got a far, far larger list of local players that I’ll follow-up on after the draft; these are just the significant/top 10 round types.

  • Connor Jones, UVA RHP via Great Bridge; at this point perhaps the 2nd or 3rd best college pitching prospect thanks to fall-offs from a number of other candidates.  Probably a mid-1st rounder, though some pundits (Keith Law) have him rated far lower.
  • Buddy Reed, OF from Florida via Finksburg, MD (NW of Baltimore).  Probably a late first rounder or sandwich pick, perhaps lower.
  • Matt Thaiss, UVA C who has shot up the rankings; now projected as early 2nd rounder.  Keith Law likes him as a late 1st rounder.
  • Mike Shawaryn: RHP for Maryland; stock has really fallen this season; now perhaps just a 4th rounder.  A late season push improved his draft status somewhat.
  • Andrew Knizner, C from NC State by way of Glen Allen, VA: gritty ballplayer who has played his way into perhaps 5th round discussions.
  • Errol Robinson, SS from Ole Miss by way of Maryland; struggled badly this season, dropping his stock from early 2nd round projections; no idea where he’s project to go now.

Local Prep players of note who are serious draft candidates:

  • Joe Rizzo, INF for Oakton HS.  Remains the highest ranked local draft prospect, projecting as anywhere between a mid-1st rounder and an early 2nd rounder.  South Carolina commit.  MLBpipeline.com’s write-up profiles his draft prospects the best.
  • Khalil Lee LHP/OF for Flint Hill.  Some have him 2nd-3rd round, others have him projected 4th-5th.  Part of the confusion is where to play him; he was an undersized speedy CF candidate… then suddenly flashed low 90s off the mound as a lefty starter this year.  Liberty commit.
  • Zack Hess, 1B/OF from Liberty Christian Academy (Lynchburg).  3rd round projection.  LSU commit.
  • Noah Murdock, a RHP from Colonial Heights (Richmond).  4th round projection by rank, UVA commit.
  • Garrett Stallings, RHP from Grassfield HS.  Not generally listed but may be rising, Tennessee commit.

Re-draft players of interest to Nats fans:  these are re-drafts that have come back up.  See the Draft Tracker for underclassmen draftees from last year and/or Prep draftees from 2013 who are now draft eligible again.

  • Garrett Hampson, SS from Long Beach State.  Nats 2013 26th round pick, now projecting as a 5th or 6th rounder.
  • Reid Humphreys, RHP/OF two-way player from Mississippi State.  Nats 2013 36th rounder, now projecting as a 4th/5th rounder.
  • Shaun Anderson, RHP from Florida.  Nats 2013 40th rounder, now projecting as a late 3rd rounder.
  • John Reeves, C from Rice.  Nats 2015 20th rounder who started 56 games for the CWS-bound Rice team and hit above .300; looks like a good choice to return to school.
  • Alec Rash, RHP from Missouri: Nats 23rd round pick in 2015.  Quit baseball altogether last fall to pursue collegiate basketball.
  • Blake Smith, RHP from WVA: Nats 24th round pick in 2015: posted a 2.20 ERA as West Virginia’s closer for the season with 8 saves and 25 appearances.
  • Mack Lemieux, LHP from Jupiter HS and then Palm Beach State CC.  Nats 14th round pick in 2015.

 

Mock Drafts

Every year I say i’ll stay away from the Mock Draft links … and every year I come back.  Here’s a running collection.  DCProSports.com has a master list of Mock drafts at this link that has many more than I’ve got listed below.

  • Fangraphs/Scott Moore‘s Mock #1: Groome, Senzel, Lewis, Puk, Pint.
  • BaseballAmerica/Hudson Belinsky‘s Mock #1: Groome, Senzel, Pint, Puk, Perez.
  • BaseballAmerica/Hudson Belinsky‘s Mock #2: Puk, Lewis, Pint, Moniak, Ray.
  • BaseballAmerica/John Manuel Mock #1: Puk, Lewis, Pint, Moniak, Groome.
  • BaseballAmerica/John Manual BA Mock #4: Moniak, Puk, Ray, Lewis, Pint
  • Manual Mock #5: Moniak, Puk, Lewis, Pint, Ray
  • ESPN/Keith Law Mock #1 (Insider only): Puk, Lewis, Groome, Pint, Ray.
  • ESPN/Keith Law Mock #2 (Insider only): Puk, Lewis, Groome, Moniak, Perez.
  • ESPN/Keith Law Mock #3: Puk, Lewis, Groome, Pint, Ray
  • ESPN/Keith Law Final Mock: Moniak, Puk, Lewis, Pint, Ray
  • D1baseball.com/Frankie Piliere Mock #1: Puk, Lewis, Groome, Pint, Ray.
  • D1baseball.com/Frankie Piliere Mock #2: Puk, Lewis, Ray, Groome, Perez
  • MLBPipeline.com/Jim Callis Mock #1: Puk, Senzel, Lewis, Moniak, Ray.
  • MLBPipeline.com/Jim Callis  Mock #2: Puk, Senzel, Lewis, Moniak, Perez.
  • MLBPipeline.com/Jim Callis Final Mock: Moniak, Senzel, Ray, Puk, Collins
  • MLBPipeline.com/Jonathan Mayo Mock #1: Puk, Senzel, Lewis, Groome, Perez.
  • MLBPipeline.com/Jonathan Mayo Final Mock: Moniak, Senzel, Ray, Puk, Rutherford
  • MinorLeagueBall Mock #1 Part one and Part two: Lewis, Puk, Groome, Rutherford, Moniak
  • Scout.com/Taylor Ward Mock #1: Groome, Senzel, Rutherford, Lewis, Ray
  • Scout.com/Taylor Ward Mock #2: Puk, Ray, Lewis, Groome, Rutherford.
  • Scout.com/Jeff EllisMock #1: Groome, Hansen, Puk, Moniak, Pint
  • Scout.com/Jeff EllisMock #2: Senzel, Perez, Ray, Groome, Rutherford
  • Scout.com/Jeff EllisMock #3: Garrett, Groome, Rutherford, Senzel, Perez
  • Scout.com/Jeff EllisMock #4: Puk, Perez, Ray, Moniak, Rutherford
  • Scout.com/Jeff EllisMock #5: Puk, Lewis, Pint, Moniak, Rutherford
  • Scout.com/Jeff Ellis final Mock: Moniak, Puk, Lewis, Pint, Ray
  • NatsGM.com/Ryan Sullivan‘s Mock #1: Puck, Senzel, Lewis, Groome, Perez
  • Si.com/Chris Crawford‘s Last minute Mock Draft: Puk. Lewis, Groome, Pint, Ray
  • Baseball Prospectus; have not seen any mock drafts from BP this year.
  • PerfectGame.org Mock Drafts are Insider/Premium only; this link is to their 2016 Draft Coverage home page.

 

Todd Boss’ Mock draft?  Based on my vast level of expertise (sarcasm) and the thousands of man hours i’ve put in scouting players in person and cultivating industry sources (also sarcasm), and instead reading the tea leaves of the gazillion other mock drafts, I’ll take this as my initial guess for the top 5: Puk, Lewis, Groome, Pint, Moniak

The only thing that gives me pause is this: Puk *stunk* in the regional.  4 and a third, 5 hits and 5 runs given up to UConn.  Sorry; if you’re going to go 1-1 you need to do an outing like 7ip, 4hits, 10ks, 0 walks in your swan song.  I wonder if that was enough to have Philly move to a different pick.  And Perez just got popped for failing a drug test, instantly removing him from top-5 consideration.  So, given Puk’s stinker most of the last minute mocks have Philly off of Puk and doing Moniak as an under-slot deal.  And I can’t disagree.  So my final mock will be: Moniak, Puk, Lewis, Pint, Ray

And this top 5 means that Groome and Pint (who I think are the two best talents in this draft) fall to teams outside the top 5 and they’re going to be absolutely ecstatic.

ACTUAL DRAFT Results: Moniak, Senzel, Anderson (??), Pint and Ray.  Just like everyone predicted.

Who are the Nats going to take at #28 and #29?

No frigging idea.  Lots of these Mock drafts attempt to guess, to put some names with the Nats down that far.  But consider the 2011 draft.  Everyone had Anthony Rendon going 1-1.  Suddenly he slips and the Nats grab him at #6 in a total gift.  The point is this: we have no idea how even the top 5 picks will go, so predicting what’s going to happen at pick #6 is folly, let alone #28.  Nats will take BPA, probably will mix up a safer pick (aka college arm) with a riskier pick (aka a high school bat) and go back to back $2M bonus slots.  I also like the running theory that the nats will get the Scott Boras special and “package” two Boras clients together at 28/29 and basically split the bonus pools.  Names often mentioned here include Kyle Funkhauser and the prep pitcher/basketball player Matt Manning.  One would be an over draft, one would be a steal if he gets here.  We’ll see.

 

The Race to the bottom: Phillies clinch #1 pick in 2016 draft and some candidates for that pick

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This is the most exciting thing Phillies fans have seen in the last 6 weeks. Photo phillymag.com

This is the most exciting thing Phillies fans have seen in the last 6 weeks. Photo phillymag.com

First off; congrats to the Philadelphia Phillies, who thanks to late season collapse basically have locked up the #1 overall pick in 2016.  A five game game “lead” for the #1 overall pick next  year with just nine games left on your season is pretty unassailable, especially when you look at the lineups they’re putting out as of late.  Here’s the Reverse Standings for 2015.  And here’s the official 2016 draft order from MLB.

Your Washington Nationals are drafting 18th overall.  This is a somewhat precarious spot to be; high enough to guarantee a decent talent, low enough to tempt General Managers to punt the unprotected pick with a QO-attached free agent signing.  Somehow I doubt the Nats will go that route but you never know; the departures of our nine projected free agents will free up north of $60M of 2015 payroll, and you have to think Rizzo will be spending some of that to bolster the squad.

The top of the 2016 draft looks pretty amazing, and across the board pundits are talking about the strength of the 2016 class over the 2015 class.  I heard one pundit say that just 2-3 of the guys who went top10 this year would also go top-10 next year.  Here’s the leaders in the clubhouse for #1 overall pick next summer:

  • Alex Hansen: RHP from U of Oklahoma with a huge arm (94-98), huge size (6’8″) and who is improving.
  • AJ Puk: LHP from U of Florida; 2nd in the nation in K/9 last year as a sophomore friday starter for one of the best teams in the nation in the toughest conference … and will only get better.
  • Blake Rutherford: OF from Chaminade Prep in LA; basically has starred at every prep event he can enter (18-U National team member as a *junior*, USA tourney of Stars MVP, great showing at the Area Code Games).
  • Jason Groome: LHP from the IMG Academy.  Vanderbilt commit.  another USA tourney of Stars and Area code Game all-star, sits 91 and  hits 95 as a 17-yr old.  Attends the IMG Academy, formerly the Nick Bolloteri tennis academy but now basically a pro-prep HS with a $70k annual tuition that is rapidly becoming the best athletics school in the nation irrespective of the sport.  This is good b/c IMG has great in-house talent and will play a fantastic schedule of elite Florida programs and national invite tournaments since, well, the whole point of going there is to prepare yourself for drafting.
  • Riley Pint: RHP from Kansas, LSU commit.  Sits 92-95 and can hit 98, again as a 17yr old, so he projects pretty well.

Most of the pundits I read put one of these 5 guys as the #1 overall pick this year.  The Phillies have a new management team and may go the “safer” route with a college hurler (Puk or Hansen), but the only bat on this list (Rutherford) could be the better long term player with less injury risk.

The Braves (currently slotted for #3 overall pick) have to be pretty darn excited with their prospects; no matter who the Phillies and Reds ahead of them pick, they’ll still get to choose from several #1 overall quality guys.  Being the Braves, they’ll want to go with one of the Florida kids (Puk or Groome) even though neither hails from the area (Iowa and New Jersey respectably).

Written by Todd Boss

October 4th, 2015 at 8:08 pm