Nationals Arm Race

"… the reason you win or lose is darn near always the same – pitching.” — Earl Weaver

Archive for the ‘ronald acuna’ tag

My 2019 MLB Awards Predictions

24 comments

Is Trout going to get shut out again? Photo Gary Vasquez/US Presswire via espn.com

Is Trout going to get shut out again? Photo Gary Vasquez/US Presswire via espn.com

Hi there.  Its time to write about the “silly season” of baseball.   Its my annual awards predictor piece.

(Important note: despite publishing this after the post-season … like the voters, I write the entirety of this at the end of September.  This is not skewed or influenced by anything that happened in the post-season.  Which is pretty important, because likely NL MVP Cody Bellinger was embarrassed in the NLDS while his competitor Anthony Rendon really out-classed him, both in that series and throughout the post-season.  Same thing with Cole versus Verlander for the NL Cy Young; after the post-season, i’m sure many would want to reconsider their votes).

Side Note: I was listening to a Ringer podcast and Bill Simmons had a very simple, elegant solution the long running debate about what the “Most Valuable Player” means.   His point about the MVP is the same as my point: how can you be the “most valuable”player on a team that only wins 75 games?  You were so valuable that you prevented that team from only winning 65 games?   Instead he thinks we should add an “Most Outstanding Performance” award in each league to identify exactly what it says; the best individual performance irrespective of the player’s impact on the playoff race.  Many times it may very well be the same player.  But a lot of the time it won’t be.  The “MOP” can be heavily driven by WAR totals, perhaps looking at all three iterations of it.

So, would MVP and MOP differ over the past few years?  Lets look.  Here’s a list of MVP winners historically, and then links to b-r’s WAR, fangraphs WAR and BP’s WAR.

  • 2018: MVPs were Christian Yelich and Mookie Betts.  MOP candidates:  Still Betts in the AL, Jacob deGrom in the NL (who won the Cy Young fwiw)
  • 2017: MVPs were Giancarlo Stanton and Jose Altuve.  MOP candidates: Aaron Judge or Corey Kluber in the AL, Max Scherzer in the NL (both pitchers mentioned won the Cy Young)
  • 2016: MVPs were Kris Bryant and Mike Trout.  MOP candidates?  Probably Trout and Bryant still, though Scherzer has a case (and he won the Cy Young here too)
  • 2015: MVPs were Bryce Harper and Josh Donaldson.  MOP candidates: Harper and Trout.  Harper was head and shoulders above anyone this season, as was Trout (who lost b/c his team was bad).
  • 2014: MVPs were Clayton Kershaw and Mike Trout: MOP candidates?  Kluber and Kershaw (both were cy Young winners).

So, of the last 10 MVPs, i’d say that half of them were not also the “MOP” that year.  That’s half the MVPs, even given more modern thinking in voting for the award.


anyway, to the predictions:

  • AL MVP:  Alex Bregman
  • NL MVP: Cody Bellinger
  • AL Cy Young: Gerrit Cole
  • NL Cy Young: Jacob deGrom
  • AL Rookie: Yordan Alvarez
  • NL Rookie: Pete Alonso
  • AL Manager: Rocco Baldelli, Minnesota
  • NL Manager: Mike Shildt, St. Louis

Discussion/Reasoning

  • AL MVP: Even though Trout plays for a crummy team, and even though he missed most of Sept with injury, I think he may win.  But Houston’s clean-up hitter Alex Bregman provides a pretty compelling case from a value perspective.  If two players have the same WAR but one plays for a 107 win team and the other’s team didn’t win 70 … i think we know who should win.  I like Betts and Matt Chapman to get votes here too.  Not sure which Yankee gets the “best player on the playoff team” votes for them.  It wouldn’t completely shock me if Trout won in a close vote, but I’ll go Bregman for now.
  • NL MVP: It was probably a neck-and-neck battle between Bellinger and Christian Yelich, who had exploded in the 2nd half to “catch” Bellinger’s monstrous first  half.  But a season-ending knee injury costs Yelich the bulk of September, likely ending his chances.  I think it goes Bellinger 1, Yelich 2, and then maybe the Nats Anthony Rendon getting some down-ballot love.  Also look for Ronald Acuna to get votes, as the “best player on the playoff team” for Atlanta.
  • AL Cy Young: Cole going away, with his teammate Justin Verlander 2nd.  What a late-career arc for Verlander.  I initially thought Verlander might get this with some sympathy votes, but Cole’s narrative was so dominant (as were his stats) and his 2nd  half so incredible that I find it hard to believe he won’t take the prize.
  • NL Cy Young.  This was absolutely Hyung Jin Ryu‘s award to lose for most of the season.  Then it looked like Scherzer’s to lose until he got hurt … which has opened the door for DeGrom to repeat.  I think Strasburg‘s ERA will look too high as compared to deGrom’s despite his career year.
  • AL Rookie: Dating back to perhaps mid last season, when it became clear that Toronto was manipulating his service time, this was Vladimir Guerrero Jr’s award to lose.  And, despite all the hype, he probably has lost it thanks to a pretty medicore first half.  it took him months to get going, eventually heating up in August to post nearly a 1,000 OPS for month.  Might be too little too late to catch Houston’s slugger Alvarez, who has top-of-the-leaderboard wRC figures.
  • NL Rookie: Alonso hit 53 homers; how can you not give him the ROY?  Understood there’s other qualified names, but Alonso’s accomplishments make him pretty famous, and makes him a shoe-in for this award.  No point in mentioning 2nd place here; this should be unanimous.
  • AL Manager: Baldelli wins the award for “most surprising AL team” to get the Mgr.  Everyone knew the Yankees and Astros would be good.  Maybe Oakland’s manager (Bob Melvin) or Tampa’s manager (Kevin Cash) gets votes or wins outright.  Maybe Yankees manager (Aaron Boone) gets some credit for navigating the myriad of injuries he has to face.
  • NL Manager: Shildt wins here out of apathy.  The NL race was mostly decided in the West before the season started, so hard to give it to Dave Roberts.  We knew Atlanta could repeat, so hard to make an argument for Brian Snitker.  the NL race was more about teams flailing that should have been better (Chicago Cubs, Washington Nationals, maybe even Philadelphia too).  Maybe i’m wrong and the press sees the recovery job the Nats did this year and gives it to Martinez.

Finalists announced on  11/5/19;  i didn’t miss any of my top candidates, but was kind of surprised by some of the finalists.


Actual Award Results added as they were awarded (updated post-publishing).  Voting results on baseball-reference.com for 2019 BBWAA awards.

  • AL MVP: Mike Trout in a close one over Bregman, 17-13 in 1st place votes
  • NL MVP: Bellinger in a tight one as well.
  • AL Cy Young: Justin Verlander 17-13 in 1st place votes over Gerrit Cole.
  • NL Cy Young: deGrom nearly unanimously, with 29/30 1st place votes.  Scherzer 3rd, Strasburg 5th, Corbin 11th.
  • AL Rookie: Alvarez unanimously.  John Means 2nd, Brandon Lowe third, Eloy Jimenez fourth, Cavan Biggio fifth.   Guerrero finished 7th, getting a handful of 3rd place votes.
  • NL Rookie: Alonso with 29/30 votes.    Mike Soroka 2nd,  Fernando Tatis Jr. 3rd.  Victor Robles finished 6th with one 3rd place vote.
  • AL Manager: Baldelli, edging out Boone.
  • NL Manager: Schildt barely over Counsell.

My prediction results: 6 for 8.    I switched out original guesses that would have had me 8 for 8 by over-thinking things.  I do like that Trout was not penalized for his performance, and kind of remained surprised Bregman didn’t win in the end.


 

Links to other awards that I didn’t predict this year (again, updated post-publishing as they’re announced)

Other links to awards worth noting


My 2018 End-of-Season Awards Predictions

11 comments

Another season, another MVP runner-up for Trout at the behest of another player? PHoto via redsox life

Another season, another MVP runner-up for Trout at the behest of another player? PHoto via redsox life

Hi there.  Its time to write about the “silly season” of baseball.   Its my annual awards predictor piece.

Here’s my predictions for how the awards will go.  Important note: This is not necessarily how I believe the awards should go, it is how I think the current electorate will vote …  though I do tend to believe that the MVP award in particular is not just about naming the WAR leader in the league.  And I also tend to favor giving a pitcher the Cy Young and a non-pitcher the MVP.  But feel free to discuss in the comments if you think i’m wrong.  I can be argumentative either way :-)

How do I think the voting will go?

  • AL MVP: Betts
  • NL MVP: Yelich
  • AL Cy Young: Snell
  • NL Cy Young: Scherzer, changed mind to deGrom after reading the tea leaves
  • AL Rookie: Ohtani
  • NL Rookie: Acuna
  • AL Manager: Melvin (Oakland)
  • NL Manager: Snitker (Atlanta)

 

Discussion/Reasoning

  • AL MVP: Mookie Betts is the best player on the best team, always a good place to start with MVP thoughts.  Yes, once again Mike Trout is having a phenomenal year, and once again he toils on the West Coast and for a team out of the playoff race.  I’m eternally sympathetic to those who think MVP should not include team performance … and i’m perennially finding myself agreeing with “old school” sentiments that ask a simple question; how can you be the most valuable player when your team isn’t a factor for most of the year.   Also in the mix would be Betts’ teammate J.D. Ramirez, the Oakland phenomenon Matt Chapman, Houston WAR leader Alex Bregman, and Cleveland stars Jose Ramirez and Francisco Lindor.  My personal hedge statement here: I’d be rather surprised if Betts did not win.
  • NL MVP: Christian Yelich has really exploded late in the season to put his name into this discussion.  But the question may end up being this: is this one of those weird years where no dominant, obvious position player candidate steps up and thus the award goes to a pitcher?  I’d suggest this might be possible … except that the top 3-4 pitching candidates all play for non-playoff teams.  And that doesn’t match the narrative.  I’m going to go with Yelich, then the top NL pitchers right behind him, with perhaps Javier Baez,  Nolan Arenado and Freddie Freeman getting some votes as their respective “best player on a playoff team” status.  Coincidentally … did you know that Anthony Rendon is 2nd in the NL in fWAR behind Yelich?  I certainly didn’t.  Personal Hedge statement: I’d still be shocked if a pitcher for a non-playoff team won here, and would find it hard to vote for one of these other position players mentioned.
  • AL Cy Young: Blake Snell.   This might be an interesting case of whether you’re wow’d by conventional stats or not.  Snell has a sub 2.00 ERA, but he’s doing it thanks to a ridiculously low BABIP, which drags down is fWAR and puts him well down the league leader list.  Meanwhile in bWAR … he’s the top AL pitcher, ahead of his competition for this award.  I think the fact that he’s put up the numbers that he has playing in the AL East and having fully 25% of his starts this year come against Boston and the Yankees is pretty amazing.  I’d vote Snell.  Also in the mix here: Verlander, Cole, Sale, Kluber, Bauer.  Personal Hedge: wouldn’t be surprised if this went to Verlander or Sale instead.
  • NL Cy Young.  Max Scherzer  Yes i’m convinced that his broaching the 300k mark put him over the top, despite the unbelievable season that Jacob deGrom had.  I could be wrong; maybe the electorate has now advanced to the point where they recognize that a guy who finished 10-9 was indeed the best pitcher of the year.  We’ll see.  Either way, I sense these guys go 1-2.  After them, look for Aaron Nola Kyle Freeland, and Patrick Corbin.  Personal Hedge: deGrom is getting enough “holy cow look at this season” buzz that it wouldn’t really surprise me if he won.  And he’d be completely deserving.  Btw, as the off-season narratives grew, I became less and less convinced I had this one right.  Writing this ahead of the awards, I think deGrom wins.
  • AL Rookie: Shohei Ohtani: it shouldn’t be close honestly.  He had a 4.0 WAR season, clubbing more than 20 homers and looking pretty darn solid on the mound before the inevitable elbow injury derailed his season and cost him 60 games or so.   Only Gleybar Torres is close; this should be a unanimous vote and I hope Ohtani comes back from injury sooner than later.  Personal Hedge: a vote against Ohtani is really a bad one honestly.
  • NL Rookie: Ronald Acuna; its Acuna or Juan Soto, both of whom had historic seasons at a young age.   Acuna’s monster September pushes him over the top, and his stat line for the season is just slightly better than Soto’s, despite the missed time.  By narrative, Soto would have this hands-down though; he advanced from Low-A to putting up a 4-win season as a 19yr old, has had perhaps the 2nd or 3rd best teen-aged season in the long history of our game, and might have been in the MVP race had the Nats won the division.  Hedge: I begrudgingly have to admit that Acuna is slightly better, and rookie status isn’t given context (ie, its not part of the equation that Soto started the year in Low-A and Acuna was in AAA and a known #1 overall prospect).
  • AL Manager: hard not to say that Bob Melvin‘s performance taking an expected also-ran to nearly 100 wins isn’t the Mgr of the year.  He’s on his like 18th starter of the year, he’s winning with a bunch of non-prospects, he’s turned trash into treasure (Blake Treinen).
  • NL Manager: Brian Snitker, who took the NL east by 8 games in a complete surprise based on nearly every pundit’s pre-season predictions.  No other NL playoff team was really this big of a “surprise” so he gets it.

 


Actual Award Results added as they were awarded (updated post-publishing).  Finalists announced 11/4/18.

My prediction results: 7 for 8 (missed on my initial deGrom prediction).

Links to other awards that I didn’t predict this year (again, updated post-publishing as they’re announced)

Other links to awards worth noting