Baines comes from out of nowhere to get elected to the Hall. Photo via BroBible.
Last week, we heard that Lee Smith and Harold Baines were selected by this 16-person “Today’s Game Era Committee” to be in the Hall of Fame.
Honestly, I’m not sure why we pay so much attention to this institution at this point; literally every decision they make seems to be in direct conflict with what the general consensus of the sport’s fandom thinks makes sense.
- Too many players on the ballot? By all means, don’t expand the ballot.
- Too many players on the ballot needing more years to get elected? Oh, lets shorten the amount of time players can stay on the ballot. Of course!
- Tired of seeing illogical votes? The writers themselves voted to make their votes public … but the Hall of Fame said no.
- Old-timey players found out to be relatively unworthy due to new knowledge of the game? Oh, lets ignore years/decades of writer voting and just hand them a spot in the hall.
Lets talk about them one at a time
Smith aged off the ballot after 15 years in 2017, getting 34.2% of the electorate vote his final year, peaking just above 50% in one of his years on the ballot. He was a journeyman closer (8 teams in 18 years) with a gazillion saves (478) and a 3.00+ ERA with a middling bWAR figure (29.4), 16% of which came in his best season. We talked about him for years; he was a mediocre to good closer, nothing special, and came into the ballot at a time where there was a huge glut of candidates as well as better/more famous closers in the discussion. He made 7 all-star teams and had three Cy Young leading seasons back when people thought that saves were actually worthy of voting for (to wit, he finished 2nd in Cy Young voting in 1991 b/c he led the league in saves with 47 saves … and had a 2.3 bWAR season. Meanwhile, last year Tanner Roark, you know the guy who a lot of Nats fans were convinced we should non-tender due to his crummy performance … he posted a 3.0 bWAR for 2018. Yeah; even a replacement level starter right now is more valuable than an all-star closer).
That is a hall of famer?
Meanwhile Baines was even more of a journey-man; playing 22 seasons across 5 franchises and hanging around as a lefty DH type with a solid bat but not highlight power. He accumulated 38.7 bWAR in his long career, his career apex being a 4.3 bWAR season in 1984. He made 6 all-star teams and never sniffed even a top5 MVP vote. He hung on the ballot getting just north of the 5% threshold for several years, then was dropped off when the glut of candidates started in 2011. That’s right; people lost their minds because Jack Morris got in despite his 3.90 ERA and peaking at 61.5% of the HoF vote … yet Baines is now in despite never getting more than 7% (!) in any year and having a career BA of .289. His best argument for getting into the Hall seems to his high career hit total (2,866), which will now also be the eventual argument for the likes of Omar Vizquel (career hits: 2,877) and Johnny Damon (career hits: 2,769) to also get added by a chummy veterans committee filled with current employees and former managers.
That’s a hall of famer??
.289 will not be the lowest batting average for any Hall of Famer (not like Morris’ 3.90 being the highest ERA). Not by a long shot; there’s plenty of guys in the .250-.270 range or lower. But many of those who have these lower averages also have 500 homers, or are 10x gold glove winners. Or have some other redeeming qualities. Baines was often not even the best player on his own team, let alone the league.
I mean, good for him. He gets to make a speech and join a pretty exclusive club. He’ll also basically serve as a low-end benchmark going forward for comparison purposes.
But most of the rest of the baseball world is pretty troubled by this. I’ve always thought that a committee would do a better job of electing players to the Hall, in the same vein that the NFL selection committee seems to do a pretty good job. But clearly not THIS committee, that includes the arrogant and patently-anti-analytical Joe Morgan (whose letter to the electorate literally led some respected writers to quit the process), and the equally arrogant Tony la Russa, who failed so spectacularly in management with Arizona recently and literally used game winning RBI during an on-screen interview to defend the selection of Baines while claiming anyone who argues against Baines are using “weak *ss superficial bullsh*t.”
Wow.
Whatever. I’m sure we’ll get some good candidates elected and can argue for or against them during the slow period in early January like always. But the inclusion of Smith and Baines while the likes of Edgar Martinez and Mike Mussina (in particular) is yet another nail in the coffin of believe-ability for the Hall of Fame as an institution.