Nationals Arm Race

"… the reason you win or lose is darn near always the same – pitching.” — Earl Weaver

Quick NLDS Game 1 thoughts

18 comments

Rendon came to play. Photo Nats Official via espn.com

Rendon came to play. Photo Nats Official via espn.com

Nats lose 4-3 … but showed some promise in the process.

The offense battered Clayton Kershaw for 8 hits in 5 innings but only parlayed them into 3 runs thanks to some untimely strikeouts.  Kershaw to me really struggled; pitch count way up, was missing locations badly, couldn’t throw his slider at all.   Max Scherzer seemed similarly off; the difference in the game turned out to be more of Scherzer’s mistakes ending up over the fence while Kershaw’s mistakes ended up as line drives through the infield.  I guess maybe that’s as good of a summary of the talent difference between these two guys as any.

You had to hand it to the nats hitters: Harper had good ABs, Turner had a clutch sac-fly in a key RBI situation, Zimmerman did not look overmatched at all.  Rendon continued to look like the under-rated team MVP candidate that he has looked like all year.  Severino; man have we already found our 2016 starting catcher?

Espinosa?  Yeah not so much; 0-3 with 3 strikeouts and 6 runners left on base.  That’s your game right there; not one clutch hit, not even one ball put in play from Espinosa.

I feel a lot better about the team’s chances in Game 2; when they went down 4-0 early they didn’t hang their heads; they fought back and were one clutch hit away from tying the game on numerous occasions.   As a team they were 1-10 with RISP; a common refrain for “clutchness” that we’ve talked about often.  But in reality, that’s just bad luck; if the team BA is nearly .300 then a 1-10 line is just bad timing.

If it doesn’t rain that is …. I will be at the game, hopefully.

PS: fun local connection for me personally; the loogy that hte Dodgers brought in to face Harper in the 6th?  Yeah that was Grant Dayton.  Dayton played for my dad’s Clark Griffith team 8-9 years ago and we brought him out to  play for my adult MSBL team a few times.   He even pitched for us (though he wasn’t throwing frigging 93 like he was last night back then).  Great kid, really nice guy and really cool to see him finally break through this year and reach the majors after a very long minor league career.  Too bad he did his job too well and shut down Harper 🙂

 

18 Responses to 'Quick NLDS Game 1 thoughts'

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  1. I’m not at all encouraged that the offense “showed progress” in Game 1. Like Game 2 in 2014, It was a golden opportunity wasted by the team’s continual inability to get key hit when they needed it.

    The Nats home playoff record is now 1-5 lifetime, with Werth’s walkoff salvaging a perfect negative record for the home fans.

    Karl Kolchack

    8 Oct 16 at 9:31 am

  2. You don’t think it was a good thing that they got 8 hits in 5 innings against the best pitcher in baseball? Agreed it was a golden opporunity, but at least they didn’t get shutout for 7 innings or get destroyed 10-1 like Texas.

    Todd Boss

    8 Oct 16 at 10:51 am

  3. No, actually I don’t. Kershaw was NOT Kershaw yesterday–he was really struggling to hit his spots and they should have broken he game wide open against him. Once the Dodgers bullpen came in, the lineup was shut down. Not a good omen if they are tied or losing when the starters exit the game today.

    Karl Kolchack

    8 Oct 16 at 2:48 pm

  4. I don’t either. The time for moral victories was in the regular season. They just need to find a way to win. I sure wish Dusty would at least have moved Danny back to 8th where even less would be expected of him. Nats win Game 2 only if they can hit one or two out of the park.

    MG

    8 Oct 16 at 3:16 pm

  5. We drove all the way to the d*mn stadium … we were two blocks away when the game got cancelled today. 3 hours of driving time blown there and back. Awesome job MLB! An hour later the rain had stopped.

    Todd Boss

    8 Oct 16 at 8:07 pm

  6. Game 2 is pretty much the season. It would be possible to come back after a loss, but very unlikely.

    Overall, the Nats are better than this Dodger team. But they’ve got to prove it on the field.

    Roark didn’t get the playoff start he deserved in 2014. Time for him to make this one count.

    KW

    8 Oct 16 at 9:57 pm

  7. Lobo! Bullpen has been phenomenal and Daniel Murphy, Post Season Warrior, returns. Nice to see Turner get on the board with a couple of hits too, and an SB. Zim also looking conscious and alive.

    On to LA. How awesome would it be for a Good Gio game.

    Wally

    9 Oct 16 at 5:37 pm

  8. Sheriff Lobo! Hope Todd got to use his tickets and can tell us how much of a momentum change that HR felt like in the stadium. On TV, it seemed to completely change the team’s body language.

    Murph seems to be getting locked in again. He’s making sure he makes contact, doing that Wade Boggs thing, but you would think that he’s going to start turning on pitches harder as he gets back in the flow of things. Plus he’ll get to face RHP on Monday.

    And Danny finally found a way to make contact — with his body. He sure hasn’t had any success with his bat. But he got on for Loby’s big blow.

    I hope the quick turnaround will help the team with the momentum. We’ll see. Wouldn’t it be ironic if Gio turns in a more confident start than Max and Tanner did?

    KW

    9 Oct 16 at 8:43 pm

  9. I was there. Unbelieveable atmosphere in the stadium when that homer went out. Ear splitting. Our seats were along the 1st base line so you could see what the wind was doing to fly balls to left; Lobaton hit that as pure as he’s ever hit a ball. unbelievable. Absolutely you could tell the team was hitting more freely after that; Turner finally took his first unstressed swing and promptly hit one up the middle. Murphy continues to be basically unstoppable in the post season. Great game; i’m debating where to put it on the all-time list (which, i’ll revisit and re-post after the season is over).

    Todd Boss

    10 Oct 16 at 8:46 am

  10. And hitting a lot more freely in LA, baby! That was a long slog to watch/listen to (Gm 3), but with a couple of huge payoffs.

    I’ve said it all along: the Nats are the better team. You can see it with all the mixing and matching that Roberts keeps doing with his lineup. They’ve only got half a team of “regulars,” and their bullpen looks built off the waiver wire. (Although a lot of those bullpen retreads have been getting our guys out.) Anyway, give Roberts credit for doing everything he can to try to keep them in games, but the team with the better horses should win. (Don’t blow it, guys!)

    All hail postseason Zim and Werth! Meanwhile, I think Danny may be taking his final flails as a Nat. Pretty telling when Dusty pulls him and his glove in the middle of a game even with the lead. Danny does have a .300 OBP, though — on three HBP!

    I would guess that the Dodgers will bring out Kershaw for the elimination game (as they did against the Mets last year). I would think the Nats will go with Ross and save Max for Game 5 if necessary. It will be interesting for the Dodgers with Kershaw on short rest, as they’ve really burned through their ‘pen. The Nats, meanwhile, saved Treinen and Scrabble today, and Kelley worked for the first time. Lopez hasn’t gone at all.

    KW

    10 Oct 16 at 9:03 pm

  11. If I get time, i’ll do a quickie post on where we are. We’re precisely where I thought we’d be honestly: lose to Kershaw in game one, rebound in game two, Gio the sole lefty shuts them down in game 3, and now they probably put kershaw back out in 3 days rest in game 4. Presuming we lose tonight, its game 5 in DC with Scherzer vs Hill, who they’ve already proved they can hit.

    Now … my above narrative isn’t *quite* how the series has gone of course, but the results are the same. Nats up 2-1 after three.

    The manager moves make these games pretty unwatchable honestly; last night’s game was 4 hours, 12 minutes (!!!).

    I like our chances.

    Todd Boss

    11 Oct 16 at 9:03 am

  12. http://www.csnmidatlantic.com/node/947326

    Just saw this nugget, confirming what (I think) KW posted in the comments here last week. Arizona interested in Rizzo for GM slot. great.

    Todd Boss

    11 Oct 16 at 10:27 am

  13. Well, Theo just got something reported to be around 5/$50M. Rizzo makes $2.5. He’s certainly got some bargaining power.

    If it were me, I wouldn’t go. Here, he’s got a team set up to win and keep winning. He’s gotten the people he wants throughout the organization. He knows the whims of the owners, good and bad. And he was forgiven the major mistake of Matt Williams.

    In AZ, Rizzo would be starting a major rebuild. He’d never be able to compete with the Dodger money, and the Giants aren’t going away anytime soon, either. In DC, his timing was great with the Philly implosion and the Brave teardown. Those aren’t happening in LA and SF.

    We’ll see. Rizzo deserves to have some leverage. We just have to hope that the Lerners are smart enough to keep him.

    KW

    11 Oct 16 at 12:13 pm

  14. Rizzo->Arizona front office thoughts: On the pro side for Rizzo, its his “home” and he clearly likes the place. If he gets a huge pay raise and a rise in title or responsibility, maybe its something he cannot turn down.

    On the con side: is this what Rizzo wants? Does he want to be in a situation like Theo Epstein where he’s higher upt he chain and has a GM that reports to him? Doesn’t he have more autonomy right now owning both hats? But the big problem as I see it in Arizona is ownership; they’ve now had 4 GMs in 6 years. The Stewart/LaRussa regime *GUTTED* their farm system, trading away their first round picks in 2014 and 2015 along with their 2nd rounder in 20134 for … salary relief and Shelby Miller. So that’s a huge percentage of your projected MLB talent from the last 3 drafts that he no longer has. He’s looking at a 5 year roadmap to competitiveness, and that’s before thinking about the competitive landscape of being ina division with LA and SF.

    As you say, if he gets some ridiculous deal like 5yrs/$50M how can he say no? Even if he gets canned two years in that’s his life’s salary.

    Todd Boss

    11 Oct 16 at 1:16 pm

  15. Yeah, I also thought about the gutted farm system, that resulted in little in return. It’s not a move I would make.

    I think there will be middle ground. I don’t think AZ would pay Theo money, and Rizzo is in line for a raise from the Nats. How much is “enough”? We’ll see.

    As for all the Dodger money — and they do have it, make no mistake — I keep wondering where it went when I look at the team they put on the field. I don’t mean this as trash talk; I’m talking about them having no front-line starter beyond Kershaw, a bullpen (that has been performing pretty well) with several waiver-wire type guys, Toles from Kroger, Utley and Kendrick way past their primes, etc. I give Roberts a lot of credit for making the whole better than the sum of its parts, but it sure doesn’t look like a lineup you should be able to get for $250M (of which they’re paying more than $100M to guys no longer with the team).

    KW

    11 Oct 16 at 2:04 pm

  16. Nuts, looked like they were going to pull it out. Until this team actually wins a series, I’ll be nervous.

    As for Rizzo, if he is granted permission by the Nats (no sure thing), I’ll be very concerned. Clearly feels a connection to the org; I expect that AZ know they have to offer big $$, like $5+m/yr; and I really do not see many of these guys, especially Rizzo, turned off by a challenge. Plus, it’s hard to know if Rizzo feels slighted by some of the odd ownership behavior towards him, like waiting so long to pick up his option this summer. Big, big loss for us if it happens (and it was me that speculated about it last week). But I think the Nats may not grant permission.

    Wally

    11 Oct 16 at 9:14 pm

  17. Dodgers and roster construction: I think they tried, really. But they just got shredded with injuries: http://www.rosterresource.com/mlb-los-angeles-dodgers/

    On opening day 3/5ths of their projected rotation was on the D/L (Ryu, Anderson, Bolsinger). At various points of this season, Kazmir, Kershaw, Hill, Wood, McCarthy and Frias (*all starters*) were on the D/L. Most of them technically ended the season there too and were just activated off the 15-day D/L at season’s end in a procedural move. Its ridiculous what they’ve gone through pitching wise just to get where they are.

    Todd Boss

    12 Oct 16 at 8:26 am

  18. The Dodgers took big gambles on the perennially wounded wings of McCarthy and Anderson, overpaying in both money and years. They also overpaid for Maeda. They may have been “wise” not to overbid for the aging Greinke, but his departure left them with a big hole to fill. They subsequently ended up having to make a big deadline deal to get the guy who has been their #2 starter in the playoffs. I guess we’ll find out on Thursday if he gives them “enough.” But for basically TWICE the salary hit of the Nats, you would expect them to have a bit more than “enough.”

    KW

    12 Oct 16 at 12:17 pm

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