Is this the Nat's 2011 Opening Day Starter? (Photo deadspin.com)
By now we’ve all seen predictions of free agents in the off season. Here’s some from Tim Dierkes, here’s the rest of the MLB trade rumors writers, here’s some by Jon Heyman, and here’s a bunch by the HardBall Times guys. By various accounts the Nats are going to:
- Let Adam Dunn walk.
- Sign Carlos Pena to take his place
- Roll the dice on Brandon Webb
- Chase after but not obtain Cliff Lee
- Eventually sign Javier Vazquez (I really hope not)
- Maybe get Jorge de la Rosa (I hope not)
- Possibly get JJ Putz as a closer placeholder/trade bait version of Matt Capps
Note: I’ve also seen comments here and there that we’d be interested in Hisanori Takahashi, a 35yr old utility guy in the Mets bullpen or taking Kosuke Fukudome off the Cub’s hands. The former isn’t a FA and is arbitration eligible but the Mets reportedly are non-tendering him. The latter could be mildly intriguing; he’s a decent hitter, a decent fielder who has played center in the past. But it doesn’t necessarily improve over a Morse/Bernadina combo. Of course, i’m also hearing about possible trades for Zack Greinke (as covered in this blog posting) or Matt Garza. I’d love to have either guy of course, but don’t want to give up the farm for either guy. And now that Dan Uggla has indicated that he wants out of Florida (and honestly, given the cheap-skate way the franchise is run and the way the players are run out of town as soon as they get too expensive, who wouldn’t?), there’s all sorts of rumors about his possible destination … and the Nats are in the thick of it.
(Side note: do you start to think that the Nats are acting a little out of character this off season? They’re attached to marquee free agents, they’re listed as “interested parties” on half the free agents out there, and they’re putting their name in the hat for all the big names on the trading block. Is this all for real or is this severe over-compensation for the Lerner’s spending the past 5 years of acting like MLB paupers?)
So, our 2011 rotation could look like this:
- Livan Hernandez
- Brandon Webb
- John Lannan
- Javier Vazquez
- Jordan Zimmermann
Leaving the likes of Maya, Detwiler, injury disappointment Wang and $15M bust Jason Marquis on the sidelines (to say nothing of the next tier of guys like Stammen, Atilano, Martis, Mock and Chico looking at bullpen spots or AAA). I can’t see Sammy Solis making a Mike Leake-esque debut at the MLB level having never pitched a day in the minors, especially after his less-than-dominant AFL numbers.
The POTENTIAL of this rotation is great. Webb’s a former Cy Young winner, Vazquez an innings eater who garnered Cy Young votes in 2009 in Atlanta. Lannan (outside of the first half of last year) is a difficult lefty who gets a ton of ground balls and pitches at a 110 era+ level, Livan is a revalation and Zimmermann is a Matt Cain replica who could be just as dominant with mid 90s possible shutdown stuff. The reality could be just as bad: Livan is a soft tossing righty who depends on guile and is regularly shelled, Webb hasn’t pitched in 2 years, Vazquez has lost his fastball, Zimmermann is promising but has never produced, and Lannan (our Ace) is a #4 pitcher on a good staff. Nothing like glass is half empty/glass is half full analysis.
Our non-pitching/out-field lineup looks pretty set already for the 2011 season.
- (L) Nyjer Morgan – CF
- (R) Ian Desmond – 2b (yes I think he and Espinosa need to switch)
- (R) Ryan Zimmerman – 3b
- (L) Carlos Pena – 1b (he has to bat cleanup to go R-L-R in the heart of the order)
- (R) Josh Willingham – LF
- (L) Roger Bernadina/(R) Michael Morse platoon in RF
- (R) Ivan Rodriguez – C
- (S) Danny Espinosa – SS
- Pitcher
I can live with that. Frankly i’d like to see another outfielder acquisition. I liked Bernadina and Morse’s production this year but they’re not game changers. You really need to use your power positions on the field (first and third base, right field, left field) to hold your big boppers, and we need more production out of the RF spot. Jayson Werth would really fit in nicely there wouldn’t he? I guess we wait til 2012 and the introduction of Bryce Harper to fill that spot.
I also think we need to do something in center/leadoff. Morgan’s troubles towards the end of last season are well documented, but his production wasn’t earning him playing time. If the Red Sox acquire Carl Crawford, that might make Jacoby Ellsbury available. His 2010 was a wash but he’d be the perfect center fielder/leadoff guy. 2009 stats: 70sbs, .301 BA and a .355 obp.
Willingham has mentioned that he would be willing to play First, and I think that’d be a great alternative if we can’t get any of the free agent 1st basement to come here. We could go with an outfield of Bernadina, Morgan and Morse with Willingham at 1st base, giving us a decently good lineup both offensively and defensively.
It looks to be a really interesting offseason for the Nats.