13 for 15 on the post-season now. Got 3 of 4 yesterday; didn’t see the A’s beating Sanchez. And didn’t see the Dodgers pulling a fast one and throwing Kershaw on short rest. They really must not trust Nolasco right now.
Today’s might be the toughest games yet to pick; both ALDS game 4s are featuring the team’s #4 starters, who are the least predictable and most unreliable.
Detroit-Oakland: Straily vs Fister. A rematch of this exact scenario (Oakland visiting Detroit) on August 28th. Here’s the box score: http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/DET/DET201308280.shtml . Oakland pounded Fister that day and won 14-4. Fister finished the season very erratically, Straily finished with a handful of decent starts. Neither guy has had a start since 9/25 … so they’re working on 13+ days of rest when they’re used to just four. So you have to wonder how that’s going to play out. Honestly I see another high scoring game here and I see Oakland taking it. They’re hot, Fister’s not good, and if Oakland could so easily get to Sanchez they can easily pound Fister.
Boston-Tampa: Peavy vs Hellickson. Peavy’s faced Tampa twice this year and had basically the same line: 6ip, 3ER, quality start. One game they lost, one they won. Meanwhile Hellickson had an awful 2013, a significant step back from a guy who was considering a near ace last year. His ERA rose two full points from 2012 to 2013. However he was good in his three 2013 outings versus Boston. He’s going to have to shake off some really bad outings recently, but I think he can do it. I’m going with Tampa to force a game 5.
Picking Oakland and Tampa today.