Nationals Arm Race

Marquis pitches his best game in a Nats uniform. Photo Drew Hallowell/Getty Images via bleacherreport.com

The big news this cycle was the manager situation clearly, but the team is playing some serious baseball right now.  Cycle #15 ended with a loss, breaking an 8-game winning streak that pulled the team out of last place in the NL East (and nearly got them to .500 on the season).   We have 3 interesting series coming up against teams with similar records to us (including the suddenly decent Pittsburgh Pirates), and it should be telling how the team does over the next couple of weeks.

Good

• John Lannan pitched a pretty clean game on 6/22 (box/gamer), giving up 1 run on 3 hits in 5 2/3s innings against Seattle, then handing off the ball to his bullpen of hard-throwers, who held and closed out the win for him.  Lannan has had a pretty amazing turnaround over the past month, lowering his ERA from 5.03 to 3.40 in 6 starts.  Lannan is such an enigma; his career ERA now stands almost exactly at 4.00, with an ERA+ just over 100.  He’s pretty much the definition of a MLB average pitcher.  The problem is, the team needs guys who are consistently better than average in order to make the next step.  I can see Lannan getting tendered next year but eventually getting beat out by one of our rising starters.
• Jason Marquis put in perhaps his best outing as a National on 6/23 (box/gamer), taking a no-hitter into the 6th and leaving the game having pitched 8 scoreless innings of 3-hit ball.  He was at 108 pitches (70 for strikes) and (from what I could tell from the stands) was getting squeezed on the strike zone.  Too bad this great outing was out-shined by the abrupt resignation of manager Jim Riggleman immediately following the game.
• Jordan Zimmermann continued his excellent streak of starts, going 7 scoreless innings friday 6/24 (box/gamer) before watching his bullpen blow his Win, then blow two more leads before the team finally won in 14 innings.  Ironically it was (arguably) our 3 best relievers who each blew saves (Storen, Coffey, Clippard).  The team also managed to use every single arm in the bullpen in the process.
• Tom Gorzelanny was an unlucky loser, pitching 7 strong innings on 6/25 (box/gamer) but getting tagged for the loss when Henry Rodriguez let inherited runs score.  The Nats squandered a golden opportunity when opposing starter John Danks had to leave the game early, a night after both teams emptied the bullpens in the 14-inning wild affair.  They couldn’t get to Bruney and they certainly couldn’t get to Peavy, getting a grand total of 2 hits in 9 innings.  Hard get your pitcher a win in those circumstances.

Bad

• In the first game of the Seattle series on 6/20 (box/gamer), Livan Hernandez continued his up-and-down season with a “down” start, giving up 5 runs (4 earned) on 10 hits through 4 innings and a couple of batters in the 5th.  The game looked like a 5-1 wipeout before the Nats improbably scored 5 in the 9th inning to get a walk off win and rescue a ND for Hernandez.

Starter Trends: last 5 starts.

MLB Trends (through gorzelanny 6/25)
Lhernandez          soso,good,bad,great,bad
Marquis                 good,good,good,bad,great
Lannan                  good,good,good,good,good
Zimmermann     good,good,great,good,great
Gorzelanny          bad,soso,bad->dl,bad,good

Relievers of Note and other News.

• So far, so good for Ryan Mattheus, who hasn’t given up a run in 3 appearances through 6/21.  He’s throwing the ball hard, he’s stranding inherited runners and he’s getting outs.  Everything you want from a middle reliever.
• Not good news for reliever Cole Kimball, who pitched through arm pain for weeks before “fessing up,” and now is being “shut down” for a couple of weeks because of continued pain.  Its still being reported as shoulder inflammation, but it sounds like it could be something much more serious.  Guys with 95mph fastballs and shoulder injuries don’t usually recover either.
• Chein-Ming Wang is *finally* going out on rehab, with a planned appearance in Hagerstown monday 6/27.  It is slightly surprising that he’s going to Hagerstown, meaning that our 5 excellent prospects there will have their rotation scrambled slightly.  I think he would have made more sense in Potomac, where the starters have been less impressive all season.  Wang’s beginning of rehab is significant; it starts the clock from a month downward before a major decision has to be made; he has no minor league options so at the end of the period he either joins the 25-man roster, goes back on the DL or gets released.

It is good to have the Face of the Franchise back. Photo unknown credit via fantasyknuckleheads.com

The Nats finally get Ryan Zimmerman back into a suddenly potent lineup, and continue their longest winning streak in several years.  How’d our guys fare heading into the weekend Interleague series with the Orioles?

Good

• Livan Hernandez pitched perhaps his best game in a Nats uniform on June 15th (box/gamer) against the powerful St. Louis lineup.  A 3-hit shutout.  Three errors and 4 bombs from his improving offense definitely helped, but he would have won this game even with his typical crummy run support.  Game score on the night: 87.  Nice.  (Verlander‘s no hitter on May 7th scored a 90, for comparison purposes).  For a nice overview of the Bill James Gamescore, and a list of the greatest pitching performances in National’s history, read Zuckerman‘s piece here.
• John Lannan continues to look like a different pitcher than earlier this season, throwing his sixth straight quality start in the St. Louis series finale on 6/16 (box/gamer).  He was denied the spoils of victory though, with Danny Espinosa‘s walkoff 3-run shot giving Burnett a victory.  The win pulled the Nats out of last place in the NL east for the first time this late in the season since perhaps 2005.
• While not quite as dominant as his past few starts, Jordan Zimmermann threw yet another quality start in saturday 6/18’s game versus Baltimore (box/gamer).  He went 6 1/3, giving up 2 runs on 8 hits for his 9th consecutive quality start.  In that time he’s driven his ERA from 4.55 to its current 3.08, good enough for 12th in the NL as of 6/19.  Can we say “second Ace” yet?

Bad

• Jason Marquis somehow willed his way out of 12 hits in less than 6 innings without giving up a dozen runs, settling for 4 against the Orioles on friday night (box/gamer).  The Orioles certainly did not hit well with RISP, and it cost them as the Nats bats continued to be hot and they extended their winning streak.
• Tom Gorzelanny‘s return from the DL was poor: he failed to get out of the 5th inning and got pounded by the Orioles to end the Nats 8-game winning streak on 6/19 (box/gamer).  He gave up 10 hits for 5 runs (4 earned) on the afternoon.  No strikeouts for the team’s leading k/9 guy, making you wonder if he’s rushed back from his injury.  His velocity seemed ok and he was pitching to contact … but the Orioles aren’t exactly a weak-hitting team.  We’ll have to hope for a stronger start next time out.

Starter Trends: Lannan and Zimmermann continue their hot streaks, Livan continues his yo-yo-ing of performances, and Marquis gets a win on a day he got hit around pretty badly.

MLB Trends (through gorzelanny 6/19)
Lhernandez         soso,soso,good,bad,great
Marquis                soso,good,good,good,bad
Lannan                  great,good,good,good,good
Zimmermann     good,good,good,great,good
Gorzelanny         good,bad,soso,bad->dl,bad

Relievers of Note

• Boy its nice to see a bullpen full of shut-down arms.  A quick glance at the ERA+ stats of our bullpen as of 6/19 offers up some pretty dominant figures.  Storen-159, Clippard-197, Rodriguez-219, Coffey-183, Mattheus-infinite (he’s yet to give up a run in two appearances).  Only Balester and Burnett have sub 100 figures.  The ERA+ is a bit deceptive for certain people (for example, Doug Slaten has a 179 figure despite a god-awful WHIP and a horrible inherited runners-scoring track record) but for the most part does a good job characterizing the performance of pitchers over the long haul.

Thoughts on the offense

• Rick Ankiel can’t seem to catch a break this season, going back on the DL to let a strained rib cage muscle heal properly.  The move was fortuitous for the Nats, who needed to activate Tom Gorzelanny to make his 6/20 start and offers a stay of execution for (likely) Brian Bixler on the active roster.
• 6 of the 8 starting hitters for this team now feature OPS+ stats > 100.  Only Desmond and Bernadina (who just missed out with a 95 OPS+) are struggling to join the hit parade.
• More importantly for our power-starved team, with 43% of the season gone we’ve got 4 players on pace to eclipse 20 homers on the season (Werth, Nix, Morse and Espinosa), and Zimmerman may pick up the pace and threaten that same mark.  Espinosa is noteworthy as the team leader, currently on pace for 27-28 homers during his rookie season, from the 2nd base position.  He may become a very valuable player indeed.

Are we about to see the last of Yunesky Maya? Photo: Al Bello/Getty Images via thenatsblog.com

In 5 starts last year; Yunesky Maya was 0-3 with a 5.88 era, a 1.577 whip and a very bad 69 ERA+.  The team lost all 5 games he pitched and he didn’t come close to even recording a quality start.

He was any one of a number of excuses.  He was “rusty.”  He was “rushed to the majors.”  He was “homesick” and he “missed his family.”  He was suffering from a “lack of competition.”  All those points were true.  The real test for Maya would be spring training 2011.

He failed to make the rotation out of the spring this past March, but you can’t fault him there.  The only rotational guy really in any jeopardy of not making the rotation (by virtue of contract or option status) was Jordan Zimmermann, and even then it was only if he was hurt.  So he (by some accounts) sulked to AAA and got pounded his first few starts before sucking it up and starting to pitch like a pro.  Because of Detwiler‘s sudden lack of performance in AAA, Maya was first to be called up to make a spot start when Gorzelanny got hurt.

All the 2010 excuses are now out the window.  He’s had a full spring, he’s rested, he should be in playing shape, and he had a bunch of AAA starts.  So, what happened?

He got lit up.  Again.

• 5/29: 6 hits and 2 walks in 4 2/3 innings.  His team bailed him out for a ND.
• 6/3: another 6 hits and 3 more walks in 4 innings plus.  His bullpen failed him and made his line look worse than it was, but still.  He took a loss and dropped his era to 8.00.
• 6/8: He actually looked great.  6ip, 4 hits, 1 run, albeit against a weaker hitting San Francisco team.  He got an early hook and his bullpen blew the game for him.
• 6/14: The coup-de-grace.  Finally going against a decent hitting team (St. Louis), Maya got pounded like a bullpen pitcher.  Only a 6run 7th inning from his offense bailed him out and gave him a ND.

Those first two starts were against San Diego and Arizona, two of the weakest hitting teams in the league.  He was clearly nibbling at the strike zone instead of commanding his pitches.  His one quality start was against San Francisco, also a weak hitting team (man that NL west just can’t hit!).  But notice what happened when he went up against a lineup of proven hitters: Pujols homer, Berkman homer, Rasmus rbi-double.  Thank god Holliday is hurt.

With Gorzelanny having finished a rehab start and looking to come back, Maya has been optioned back to AAA.

One of the reasons we drafted Maya was because of his reported “93-94” mph fastball.  That, as it turns out, as proven to be a complete myth.  Here’s his pitch f/x links for his 2011 starts:

• 5/29: 89.24mph average, a MAX speed of only 91.7.  He only looks like he even broke 90mph a handful of times on the night.
• 6/3: 88.7 average and ONLY 89.4 as a max.  89.4 as a max fastball for a right-handed starter in the major leagues?
• 6/8: 88.6 average, 90.6 max.  And this was his best game.
• 6/14: 89.1 average, max of 91.1.  The announcers said he had no movement, his fastball was flat, he was missing out over the plate and he had no control.

Yeah, he throws a gazillion different pitches.  Pitch f/x distinguishes between 6 of them, but he varies his arm slot on his fastballs and curves for even more variety.    But clearly he’s not throwing 93-94.  Whoever quoted that speed was probably on a fast gun at a stadium or was working on commission.

He’s had two shots at the big leagues and has badly underperformed both times.  If he had better stuff or commanded his pitches better, then his lack of velocity wouldn’t matter as much (see Hernandez, Livan as Exhibit 1-a).  But he doesn’t (have command), so he can’t (get around a lack of velocity).  Unfortunately for Maya and the team, it looks like his contract may be a bust.  When he goes back to AAA, it may be for good.  Perhaps he’ll make for a long-man/mop-up guy at some point.  But his career as a prospective Nationals starter seems done.

tation

Jordan Zimmermann is pitching like the "2nd ace" that we all have hoped for. Photo AP/Manuel Malce-Ceneta

The news this rotation is that Jason Marquis will drop his appeal of his undeserved 5-game suspension and serve it out.  Reason?  Because an off day in the schedule allows the rest of the starters to go on normal rest and Marquis will just move back in the rotation.  So next cycle will only have four of the five pitchers reviewed.

Good

• Jason Marquis pitched an efficient game on 6/9 (box/gamer) getting his 7th win.  6ip 3hits 1run 5k 3bb.
• John Lannan throws his fourth excellent start in a row on 6/11 (box/gamer) to get the win.  He’s now thrown four straight games with 0 or 1 run allowed and has lowered his season ERA to 3.60.  Line: 6 1/3, 6hits, 1run, 1k and 2 bbs.  Not a lot of Ks, but he didn’t need them.
• Jordan Zimmermann threw perhaps the best game any starter has thrown this year on 6/12 in San Diego (box/gamer).  7pm, 4 hits, 1 walk 0 runs and 10 strikeouts.  Too bad his team couldn’t score him any runs, so the win was left for Todd Coffey to clean up.  As was pointed out in another blog, his game score on the night was better than Strasburg‘s debut 14-k game last June.  This is Zimmermann’s 8th straight quality start, and his third straight start going 7 complete and giving up 0 or 1 runs.  You can’t ask more than that out of a starter.

Bad

• So it goes for Livan Hernandez: some good, some bad.  His start on 6/8 (box/gamer) was definitely in the bad category, getting peppered for 9 hits and 6 runs by the light-hitting Padres.
• Yunesky Maya certainly pitched his last Nationals game on 6/14 (box/gamer) for a while, and it was indicative of his previous outings.  He failed to finish 5, gave up 6 runs on 9 hits and looked completely overmatched against a good hitting team.  Stay tuned for a Maya-specific post coming up…

Starter Trends (last 5 starts only).  Lannan rebounding nicely, as is Marquis.  Zimmermann has been outer-worldly, while Maya is destined for a return to AAA.  Marquis continues to improve his trade value.

• Lhernandez      good,soso,soso,good,bad
• Marquis             bad,soso,good,good,good
• Lannan               bad,great,good,good,good
• Zimmermann  good,good,good,good,great
• Maya                   bad,soso,good,bad

Relievers of Note and other News.

• A recent spate of sub-par outings by guys in the bullpen has the team over-relying on Tyler Clippard and Drew Storen for late inning success.  We need to get Sean Burnett back in the saddle and pitching the way he did last year.  However the addition of the next guy may help.
• Ryan Mattheus gets his long awaited shot at the majors, having been added to the 40-man on 6/10/10.  Mattheus has been pitching in the minors since 2003, was our trade bounty for Joe Beimel in 2009 from the Rockies, and has fully come back from Tommy John surgery.  We were sitting at 39/40 on the 40-man after Broderick‘s dfa, so no corresponding move was needed.  His stuff looked pretty nasty during his debut on 6/14; he had a couple of Ks and looked pretty confident.  Per pitch f/x, he averaged 93 and hit 94.5 mph on his fastball and showed a huge gap between his fastball and off-speed stuff.  I’m not sure I believe that he showed 4 pitches (fast, curve, slider, change) but he definitely showed 2 fastballs (a 2 -seamer and 4-seamer) that both showed life, and he’s got a Clippard-esque delta from fastball to changeup.  If Mattheus turns into Clippard v2.0, I’d be very happy.
• Mattheus replaces Cole Kimball, who has “right shoulder inflammation”  and went on the 15-day DL.  Kimball has been pretty effective thus far, but is walking guys far too often and the rest may do him some good.  But as is apt to happen to guys getting their first shot at the bigs, he has been in pain since April and failed to tell anyone about it.  Now he’s got such bad rotator cuff inflammation he may not pitch for weeks.  Well, at least we get to see what Mattheus can do.
• Tom Gorzelanny pitched a rehab start in Syracuse on 6/13, putting him in line to re-take his rotational spot during this next cycle.  Per Ben Goessling, Gorzelanny is already back with the team and is ready to go.  Based on Maya’s last outing, I’m guessing Gorzelanny will be activated sunday morning to make his next start.

I’ve a bit behind on these rotation reviews, having captured the data but not really done any analysis.  Here’s the good/bad/soso from the 12th and 13th cycle.

During the 13th Rotation cycle, our crew had perhaps its best 5-day run since the first week of the season.  All five starts were strong.  Even Maya had a strong start, the first of his major league career.

Good

• Livan Hernandez was strong through 7 but gets loss on 6/4 (box/gamer).   Only 4 hits thru 7complete but his offense disappeared.
• Jason Marquis was excellent until he got ejected in rather ridiculous fashion on 6/5 (box/gamer).  He was ejected in a highly charged game featuring lots of HBPs and other bad blood between teams, but there’s just no way he was purposely hitting a guy on an 0-2 count.
• John Lannan looked great on 6/6 (box/gamer) but bullpen blew it.  7 innings, 4 hits and only 1 run.
• Jordan Zimmermann threw his 7th straight quality start on 6/7 (box/gamer).
• Yuniesky Maya had his best MLB start, by far, on 6/8 (box/gamer).  He got an early hook though and Burnett blew the game for him.

Relievers of Note News.

• The Nats placed Doug Slaten on the DL, called up Craig Stammen.  Slaten complained of “shooting elbow pain” that has lasted for 2 weeks, but one could see this as the continuation a convenient trend of the Nats using the DL to hide off their underperforming players.

The 12th rotation cycle started on a blisteringly hot Memorial day at the park, where the temperatures neared 100.  The Phillies were in town, which meant an invasion of Roy Halladay-jersey wearing obnoxiousness.  To make matters worse, the Nats were lined up to go against the #1-2-3 starters on the best rotation ever constructed.  How’d we fare?

Good

• Jason Marquis pitched very effectively while his teammates battered Cliff Lee for 6 runs on 5/31 (box/gamer) and he got the well deserved victory.  Line: 6 1/3, 2 runs, 8 hits, 0 walks, 4 Ks.
• John Lannan put 8 guys on in 5 1/3 innings and worked in and out of jams in pretty much every inning, but allowed only one unearned run and got his first ever victory over Philadelphia in the series finale on 6/1 (box/gamer).  A tough third game to a tough series (hot streak, two day games out of three throwing off everyone’s sleep patterns).
• Another excellent start from Jordan Zimmermann, opening up the Arizona series on 6/2 (box/gamer) with a 7inning 1run performance.  Line: 7ip, 6hits, 1run, 4ks and 1 walk.  I’d love to get an interview with Steve McCatty and find out if Zimmermann has changed his approach; he’s striking out guys at a 33% lower rate than last year.

Mediocre/Inconclusive

• Livan Hernandez opposed Roy Halladay on 5/30 (box/gamer) and did his best to keep his team in the game.  He ends up with a no decision, giving up 4 runs in 6 1/3.  He nearly pitched his way out of the game in the third, when the Phillies strung together 5 straight hits (including two solo homers).  In typical Livan fashion, he worked his way out of the jam and then pitched 3 more scoreless innings.  The offense (amazingly) really got to Halladay, and its a shame the bullpen dropped the ball after getting 4 runs on the best pitcher in baseball.
• I’m not quite ready to judge Yunesky Maya‘s 2nd (and presumably last) start as completely bad.  I think he was just unlucky, and possibly the victim of a trigger-happy manager addicted to matchup managing.  Instead of letting Maya try to get out of his own jam, he brought in Doug “The firestarter” Slaten to throw three straight balls, then groove a 3-0 fastball for a bases-clearing triple.

Relievers of Note and other Pitcher News.

• Sean Burnett blew Livan’s win for him on Monday, and has really struggled this year.  Adam Kilgore reports that Riggleman is standing by his guy, which I suppose is admirable considering the distinct lack of left-handed reliever talent we have in the system right now (in case you’re wondering, that’s close to zero.  Check out our lefty-reliever depth at this link here).
• Mark Zuckerman reports that Chien-Ming Wang is (finally) ready to leave extended spring training and go out on a rehab assignment.  This means he’s going to supplant a starter, somewhere in the system.  I’d guess he’s going to Potomac to start, as they seem to have the least-performing collection of starters right now and he’d completely overmatch the younger hitters in low-A.  The implication of his going out on a rehab assignment is this: he only gets 30 days in the minors (probably about 6 starts) before the Nats have to make a decision on what to do with him.  He has no minor league options, so in 30 days he either joins the 25-man roster, goes back on the DL or is DFA’d.  After all we’ve invested in him (and for the sake of his career), I’m hoping he still has something left.

Thoughts on the offense (dated 5/31, but still applicable right now).

All of a sudden, we have what looks like a halfway decent offense.  As of 5/31, here’s the OPS+ figures of our starting 8 out-field players:

• C: Wilson Ramos, 105
• 1B: Michael Morse, 128
• 2B: Danny Espinosa: 112
• SS: Ian Desmond: 73
• 3B: Jerry Hairston Jr: 85
• LF: Laynce Nix: 148
• CF: Roger Bernadina: 75
• RF: Jayson Werth: 117

When Ryan Zimmerman comes back (he’s sitting at 185 through 37 plate appearances) we’d have 6 of 8 positional players being above the mlb average at the plate.  That’s really good 🙂

Welcome Back Maya; will your 2nd stint be better than your 1st? Photo: via thenatsblog.com

We enter the 11th “cycle” of the rotation.  Through the first 10 times through the rotation, only Livan and Lannan have made all their starts.  Gorzelanny (as the 5th starter) missed the first rotation, Marquis missed a game in the 4th cycle because of the proliferation of DHs and rainouts, and Zimmermann missed the 5/17 phantom rain-out.

Big news this cycle: Tom Gorzelanny is going on the DL after his last start with “elbow inflammation.”  He was erratic in his last start, but this comes with no warning of any previous elbow issues.  Sunday will require someone to come up from AAA.  My guess is Maya (confirmed with his call up and 5/29 start), based partly on performance and partly because Meyers (the most deserving AAA starter) probably needs a bit more seasoning and isn’t on the 40-man.  I’m sure the team would like to keep him off the roster as long as possible at this point.  Maya last pitched on Monday, which would give him 5 days rest.  Detwiler would be going on regular rest but has not been pitching well at all.

Good

• John Lannan had nothing to show for easily his best performance on the year 5/27 (box/gamer), with Drew Storen getting both the blown save and the win when Michael Morse hit a walkoff homer.  Lannan’s line: 7 2/3, 2 hits, 0 runs, 2 walks and 5 Ks.  The performance couldn’t have come at a better time for Lannan,
• Jordan Zimmermann put in another quality start on 5/28 (box/gamer), and once again failed to get any run support.  Line: 6ip 5h 2run 1bb 4ks.

Bad

• Yunesky Maya didn’t capitalize on his 2nd shot at the major league rotation on 5/29 (box/gamer), struggling and tiring (?) in the 5th inning before getting removed.  Final line: 4 2/3, 6 hits, 4 runs, 2 walks 3 Ks.  Maya was at 90 pitches when he got the hook.  He’ll have at least one more start before Gorzelanny comes off the DL; unless he pitches 6 shutout innings or something close to it, he’s heading back.  There’s no one else (even Lannan) who is in danger of losing their spot right now.

Mediocre/Inconclusive

• Livan Hernandez had the quality start on 5/24 (box/gamer) (the first time in a while he’s gotten any sort of run support), but his bullpen conspired against him and the Nats took the loss.
• Jason Marquis leaked hits and walks all day, and gave up a homer to his counterpart Zack Greinke, en route to  his 2nd loss on the season on 5/25 (box/gamer).

Starter Trends

MLB Trends (through maya 5/29)
Lhernandez    good,bad,good,good,bad,good,soso,bad,good,good,soso
Marquis    good,good,good,soso,great,bad,good,soso,bad,soso
Lannan    good,soso,soso,bad,soso,good,really bad,good,soso,bad,bad,great
Zimmermann     good,good,good,bad,bad,good,good,great,good,good
Maya        bad
(Gorzelanny    soso,good,soso,good,great,good,bad,soso,bad->dl)

Zimmermann keeps looking better and better post TJ surgery. Photo Manuel Balce-Ceneta/AP

The Nats are in the midst of quite a struggle right now, both offensively and defensively.   3 really “bad” pitching performances to go with two good ones (both of which ended in losses).

Good

• Livan Hernandez became the latest pitcher to suffer through the Nats offensive woes, giving up just 1 run in 7 innings but taking the 1-0 loss during 5/19’s day game (gamer/box).  His team was completely shut down by the Mets backup #5 pitcher, who had a no-hitter through 5.
• Jordan Zimmerman pitched well enough to win on 5/22 (box/gamer), going through the first 6 innings scoreless and relatively unscathed, but made a mistake to Vladimir Guerrero in the 7th that ended up in the seats and gave his offensively challenged team another loss.

Bad

• Jason Marquis struggled badly, and was hurt by a Bernadina dropped flyball that was scored as a double, and was lifted after 4 in Baltimore on friday 5/20 (box/gamer).  Luckily the Nationals did a week’s worth of scoring and got the win.  His line: 4ip, 8hits, 5 runs (all earned with the badly scored Bernadina play), 3 walks and 2ks.  Upon learning that he was getting the hook prior to qualifying for the win, Marquis was highly upset.  My take?  You cannot give up 5 runs in 4 innings and expect to continue in a game.  I’m sorry; if you wanted to get that win, you needed to pitch better.
• John Lannan had a game of ups and downs on 5/21 (box/gamer); he had several clean innings, but also had a couple of bad innings.  He gave up 4 straight hits in an inning in which he’d already given up a 2-run homer to give Baltimore all they’d need to take the game.  The “meltdown” start pushes Lannan’s ERA over 5.00 and will increase calls for his demotion/replacement.
• Tom Gorzelanny got hit hard, often and deep in the 5/23 Milwaukee game (box/gamer).   5ip, 8 hits (3 of which were homers), good for 6 earned runs and the loss.  His 6ks were incidental and the damage was done early.

Starter Trends (last 5 starts only)

Lhernandez    good,soso,bad,good,good
Marquis    great,bad,good,soso,bad
Lannan    really bad,good,soso,bad,bad
Zimmermann     bad,good,good,great,good
Gorzelanny    great,good,bad,soso,bad

Relievers of Note

• Riggleman took advantage of the ridiculous 17-5 Baltimore win to get “Mr Low Leverage Reliever” Henry Rodriguez some work.  He went three innings (three!), gave up a couple of hits but had 3Ks and zero walks, a very good sign.
• Cole Kimball had his first mediocre outing on 5/21, allowing both his inherited runners to score and giving up 4 straight hits to the heart of Baltimore’s order.
• Brian Broderick‘s DFA was dated 5/14, and teams have 10 days to finalize that assignment.  We’ve heard no word on possible negotiations with St. Louis to keep Broderick up to this point, and odds are that no other team would claim him at this point (any claim would mean the claiming team would ALSO have to keep the Rule5 draftee on their active roster for the duration of the season).  I wonder if he’s about to be returned outright to St. Louis.  Update: Broderick was re-claimed by St. Louis on 5/24, ending the rule5 draftee’s Washington experiment.

Thoughts on the offense

I’m not sure what the answer is (since there’s basically nothing at AAA or AA that we could call up to augment the offense), but the downturn of the offense is getting to be ridiculous.  There’s a guy in my fantasy baseball league whose strategy is to just pick up whatever pitcher is going against the Nats, because he knows he’ll get a great outing.  Sure enough, Dillon Gee, who is probably owned in 0% of fantasy leagues, threw up this line on 5/19: 7 2/3s innings, 3 hits, 2 bbs, 3 Ks and zero runs.  Those are the kind of lines that win fantasy championships.

This is what the Park could have looked like during 5/17's "rainout." Ridiculous. Photo: AndrewClem.com

Note: Tuesday’s “rainout” of the Nats-Pirates game allowed the team to just skip Jordan Zimmermann’s start, so we’ve only got four outings in this period’s “starter cycle.”

Good

• Livan Hernandez was out-dueled for the 2nd time in a week by Anibal Sanchez on 5/14 (box/gamer), and took a loss in a game that he pitched pretty well.  line: 7ip, 6hits, 1 run.  He follows up a bad performance with a good one, as is his custom.

Bad

Mediocre/Inconclusive

• Jason Marquis may officially have a quality start in the books for his 5/15 victory over the Marlins (box/gamer) but at least one of the two earned runs he gave up in in the top of the 2nd was really “earned” and not a result of the throwing error that put Sanchez on base.  Its one of the many reasons that ERA is misleading in many cases.  That being said: he went 6 2/3, runs (2 earned), 6 hits and a walk and 2ks.  The victory makes him 5-1 on the season and should do nothing to stem the trade rumors that are sure to start dogging him now that the season is a quarter finished.
• John Lannan didn’t figure into the decision on 5/16, but he pitched decently enough (box/gamer).  Line: 6 1/3 ip, 7 hits and 4 bbs, 2 runs and 4ks.  It counts as a “good” quality start but he was putting guys on all day.  101 pitches but only 54 for strikes, indicated by the 4 walks.  He’s got a 1.6 whip on the season right now and one has to wonder if a hot starter in AAA would jeopardize his rotation spot at some point in the future.
• Tom Gorzelanny‘s 5/18 outing was hard to judge, given the weather conditions (box/gamer).  He got knocked out of the game in the 6th, having given up 8 hits and 5 walks (2 of which were intentional, but still.  One of the IBBs was done because Gorzelanny threw away a pickoff attempt, the other because he gave up a leadoff single that was stranded at 2nd).  Nearly a 2.00 whip on the day.   But it was pouring rain most of the night and both pitchers must have been struggling with their grips and control.

Starter Trends

Lhernandez    good,bad,good,good,bad,good,soso,bad,good
Marquis    good,good,good,soso,great,bad,good,soso
Lannan    good,soso,soso,bad,soso,good,really bad,good,soso
Zimmermann     good,good,good,bad,bad,good,good,great
Gorzelanny    soso,good,soso,good,great,good,bad,soso

Relievers of Note

• Cole Kimball‘s first two appearances ended with identical lines: 1ip, 1bb, 1k, nothing else.  His first appearance was in a one-run game, his second in a 4-run outing so as to save Storen’s arm.  Per pitch f/x, Kimball was throwing 93, maxing at 94.9 and throwing mostly fastballs.  There’s a massive delta between his fastball and his curve speed.  He has 4 pitches (being a former starter) but we are only really seeing 2 of them right now.  The fact that Riggleman immediately put Kimball into a one-run game within 12 hours of his call-up is as clear an indictment of Henry Rodriguez‘s continued place in the bullpen as can be said.

Thoughts on the offense

• Ankiel‘s injury may prove to be somewhat of a Wally Pipp injury, if Roger Bernadina continues to perform has he has been.   His slash line as of 5/15 is .321/.424/.393 and we’re seeing zero drop-off with his defense, high lighted by this amazing catch on 5/13 (a catch that I couldn’t believe he made either).  Its nice to see both Bernadina and Laynce Nix making statements and taking control of positions that they both “lost” in spring training.

Maybe its the 2011 haircut that is the source of Lannan’s mediocre start. Photo: Luis M. Alvarez/AP via www.timesunion.com

In his latest outing (5/16 against the Pirates), John Lannan worked around 11 base-runners in 6 and a third innings and only gave up 2 runs (one being inherited and allowed to score by Cole Kimball).  Four walks conspired to cause Lannan grief all afternoon, as well as only throwing 54 of 101 pitches for strikes.  However in the end, it was a quality start and kept the team in the game.

But are we seeing a gradual breakdown in Lannan overall?  After getting sent down in 2010, he had masterful numbers upon his return (6-3 record with a 3.42 era and 1.24 whip in his last 10 starts in 2010).  But he has not been able to carry these numbers into 2011.  Right now, his season long 2011 numbers are WORSE than his combined stats from last year, and despite only really having one egregiously bad outing (2ip, 6runs) his supporting stats are getting to be really concerning.  Here’s what concerns me specifically:

• 1.615 whip.  That’s just way too many base-runners.
• 26ks and 22bbs in 47 IP.

Perhaps I’m being nit-picky; his ERA (4.53) is almost exactly in line with his FIP and xFIP (4.50 and 4.56 respectively) meaning he’s pitching exactly as expected.  His BABIP is .323, meaning he’s been unlucky and is due for a regression of seeing-eye singles costing him hits and base-runners.  His game scores throughout the season have been relatively consistent (mostly 40s and 50s; his high on the season has been 54 and his 5/16 game was a 51).

But, more importantly, even if Lannan is the first in line to be replaced out of our current rotation, we don’t really have anyone in AAA quite yet deserving of the promotion.

The incumbent seemed to be Ross Detwiler, but he’s really struggling so far this year in AAA.  $8M man Yunesky Maya started slow and is coming around, but I want to see more Ks out of him.  Tom Milone‘s k/bb ratio is fantastic but he’s not on the 40-man (though we seem to have an empty spot right now, so perhaps that’s a non-issue).  Newly promoted Brad Meyers needs a few more AAA starts for seasoning but the evidence is there (especially after he dominated AA early in the season); his problem is lack of 40-man status as well.  Lastly Craig Stammen believe it or not may have the best case of them all; best whip, decent numbers, and outside of one bad start has been solid, but he seems to have the least “investment” of any of the starters in Syracuse and seems more likely destined for the bullpen than the MLB rotation.

Interesting decisions lay ahead, especially if Lannan has a couple bad outings in a row.  Remember; Lannan has minor league options (two of them if I read his transactions correctly).  It isn’t really a good statement to option a former opening day starter, but the team has to do what is best.

Washington won the first two games of the Florida series, but still faced a very difficult trip to Atlanta, where they are set to face the cream of the Braves’ rotation.  How did they do?

Good

• Jason Marquis got the Atlanta Series off to a nice start, pitching into the 8th on 5/10 for a victory over Tim Hudson (box/gamer).  He retired the first 9 he faced, made a mistake to Martin Prado that turned into a 4th inning homer, worked out of a jam in the 5th then cruised through 7 complete.  Two hits in the 8th turned into 2 more runs, spoiling his otherwise good line: 7 1/3, 7 hits, 2 walks, 3 runs, 3ks.
• John Lannan is an enigma; he followed up last week’s abomination with a good quality start against a playoff team in Atlanta on 5/11 (box/gamer).  Line: 6ip,5hits, 2 runs, 3bbs and 3ks.
• Jordan Zimmermann had a very dominant 103 pitch outing on 5/12 (box/gamer): 6 1/3, 5 hits, 3 runs, 2bbs and 11Ks.  Two of those 3 runs were inherited and allowed to score by Burnett.  The other was a solo HR from Chipper Jones that he absolutely crushed after Zimmermann *barely* missed with two well thrown sliders to run the count 2-0.  He missed his spot by a foot and Jones crushed it.  Our the poorly constructed bullpen conspired to blow the 4 run lead they had been given in the 7th and eventually leaked in the winning run to blow one of the better outings we’ve had out of a starter all year.

Bad

• Livan Hernandez may have reached 5 complete innings in Florida on Sunday 5/8, but he got hammered on the way there (box/gamer).  Final line: 5ip, 8hits, 2 walks, only 2Ks and 6 earned runs.  The Umpire wasn’t giving Livan the corners, and the Florida hitters just waited out his batting practice-speed fastballs to come over the plate.  Livan’s counterpart didn’t seem to mind the umpiring; Anibel Sanchez had a no-hitter through 7 and struck out 11.
• Tom Gorzelanny couldn’t get out of the 5th on 5/13 (box/gamer), putting up an unsightly line: 4 2/3ip, 8hits and a walk leading to 4 runs.  He got torched by the (very tough) first half of Florida’s lineup in the first and Riggleman yanked him when he got into trouble again in the 5th.  He was already on 88 pitches when departing.

Starter Trends

MLB Trends (through gorz 5/13)
Lhernandez    good,bad,good,good,bad,good,soso,bad,good
Marquis    good,good,good,soso,great,bad,good
Lannan    good,soso,soso,bad,soso,good,really bad,good
Zimmermann     good,good,good,bad,bad,good,good,great
Gorzelanny    soso,good,soso,good,great,good,bad

Relievers of Note

• Here’s Henry Rodriguez‘s outing on Sunday 5/8: 6 batters faced, 3 walks, 2 wild pitches, one weak grounder and two strike outs.  1 inning pitched, 1 earned run on zero hits.  27 pitches but only NINE for strikes.  This is just NOT going to cut it.  Further evidence as seen in the 5/12 game, further commented here.
• Is Sean Burnett suddenly becoming a liability out of the pen?  He retired no-one on 5/10, helping to nearly blow a 6-run lead.  He had several clean outings before that, but a stretch in mid-april has his season era near 6.00.  He’s not getting nearly the K/9 rates that he was last year (4.0 this year versus 8.9 last year).  Is his arm hurt?
• How about Drew Storen?  Riggleman still won’t commit to him as the closer, but actions speak louder than words.  As of 5/11’s game (where he earned the win by being the pitcher of record when the team scored 4 in the 11th) he’s pitched 20 2/3 innings and given up ONE run.  And we were worried about him coming out of spring training?  For all those who are talking about whether or not he’s not as “good” as Aaron Crow, you’re crazy.  Give me a shutdown closer over a middle reliever who couldn’t hack it as a starter in the minors any day.

Thoughts on the offense

Riggleman is starting to make the right decisions by playing Wilson Ramos and Laynce Nix more and more, and they’re 2 of the best 3 producing offensive players we have right now.  Its a small sample size, but Roger Bernadina looks like he may stick in the leadoff/center field spot even when Ankiel is back.

Why exactly was Slaten left in to pitch 2+ innings last night? Photo Getty Images via zimbio.com

There’s no other way to put it, after watching the unfolding of last night’s bullpen meltdown; carrying Brian Broderick and Henry Rodriguez on this team is having the effect of shortening the bullpen from 7 guys to 5, and is costing this team wins by not allowing Jim Riggleman to put in the right guys at the right time.

WP Beat reporter Adam Kilgore put it more politely, calling the carrying of two essentially worthless pitchers an “unusual roster construction.”  You know what I call it?  A GM who is hand-cuffing his manager.

I have complained in this space several times (mostly summed up here in this March 2011 post) about the implications of the Nats having 3 of their 12 pitchers (Tom Gorzelanny in addition to Broderick and Rodriguez) be essentially “locked” onto the 25-man active roster.  Its one of my main criticisms of the Josh Willingham deal in general; see my post for more opinion but to have only a right handed reliever who your manager cannot use in return for your #5 hitter of the past two years is my definition of a trade failure).  Gorzelanny has pitched much better than anticipated and his roster spot hasn’t been questioned (though for me, that wasn’t always the case either).

To say nothing of this plain fact: If you can’t trust a reliever to come into a close game and get outs, then he should NOT BE ON THE ROSTER.  Its as simple as that.  And clearly neither Broderick or Rodriguez currently falls into that category.

What is the answer?  Mike Rizzo needs to do three things, almost immediately:

1. Invent another “injury” and put Rodriguez back on the DL.  Send him to extended spring, put him back on rehab assignments and tell him he needs to either throw strikes or take a hike.
2. Call St. Louis’ GM and work out a PTBNL trade for Broderick.  Enough is enough; he projects as a #5 starter (maybe) on a team that has 4 good starters.  Is he really part of the future for this team?  Is he going to be better than any of Detwiler, Maya, Meyers, Solis, or Peacock in 2012?  Because that’s who he’s competing with for rotation spots in 2012 (figuring that at least 3 are already spoken for in Strasburg, Zimmermann and Gorzelanny).  Trade for him so you can option him to Syracuse.
3. With these two spots opened up, recall Collin Balester and call up Cole Kimball so you can actually have two useful guys in your pen who you can trust.  If you’re so in love with Rodriguez’s power, Kimball throws nearly as hard and has put up far better bb/9 numbers in AAA.  Balester has been in the majors before, put up great numbers in 2010 out of the pen, and can pitch long relief if needed as a former starter.

Its time for Rizzo to acknowledge his errors in roster construction and fix them.

(As an aside: Jim Riggleman is not totally without fault here: per Ben Goessling‘s report last night, “Todd Coffey and Tyler Clippard [needed] a night off and Drew Storen [was] being saved for a lead.”  Why let Sean Burnett stay in to get out one of Atlanta’s best hitters in Martin Prado?  Why not bring in Storen at this point and use him as the “fireman?”  Is it because he’s the “closer” and you save your closer for save situations?  I certainly hope this wasn’t his thinking.  A managers *should* use his best relievers in the highest leverage situations, and last night Storen should have been used to get out of a bases loaded jam against a tough right-handed hitter, instead of leaving in a lefty who has struggled lately.  But, this post is more about roster construction than reliever use, a topic for another day, and a larger issue in baseball in general).