Nationals Arm Race

"… the reason you win or lose is darn near always the same – pitching.” — Earl Weaver

DC-IBWAA 2014 Poll results and my vote


Each year, David Nichols of the District Sports Page blog does a great job getting all the Nats bloggers to participate in pre-season and post-season polls, voting on awards for the team for the year.

For 2014, here’s his post-season awards as voted on by us nerd bloggers.  2013’s post-season poll results and my post here.

Here’s how I voted and why.

2014 DC-Internet Baseball Writers Association



 AWARD FIRST (5 POINTS) SECOND (3 points) THIRD (1 point)
Goose Goslin Most Valuable Player
Player most valuable to the success of the Washington Nationals
Rendon Werth LaRoche
Walter Johnson Starting Pitcher of the Year
Excellent performance as a starting pitcher
Zimmermann Fister Roark
Frederick “Firpo” Marberry Relief Pitcher of the Year
Excellent performance as a relief pitcher
Storen Clippard Soriano
Sam Rice Hitter of the Year
Excellence in all-around hitting, situational hitting and baserunning
Rendon Span Werth
Frank Howard Slugger of the Year
Excellence in power hitting
LaRoche Desmond Rendon
Joe Judge Defensive Player of the Year
Excellence in fielding
Rendon Harper Span
Mickey Vernon Comeback Player of the Year
Player who overcame biggest obstacle in the preceding season to contribute on the field
Storen Roark Barrett
Josh Gibson Humanitarian Player of the YearPlayer who meritoriously gave of himself to the community Zimmerman Desmond Ramos
Minor League Player of the Year Minor league player most destined for big league success Souza Taylor Giolito

Award by Award:

  • Team MVP: Have to go with Rendon; easily leads the team in WAR (by a nearly 3-win margin in bWAR over Werth/Span in second place).   Werth continues to steadily hold on to his skills and contribute well into his mid 30s, while LaRoche put up a great contract year performance.
  • Starter of the Year: No argument here: Zimmermann was the best starter on the year.  Fister‘s advanced stats don’t like him (his FIP is above 4.00) but he gets results.  And Roark remains the best “found gold” the Nats have had in terms of prospect matriculation since the likes of Brad Peacock.
  • Reliever of the Year: Storen‘s great bounce back  year has to put him in the lead, followed closely behind by Clippard.  Still think the Soriano acquisition was worth it?  I have him 3rd here just by virtue of his first half … and because the rest of the relievers were either long guys (Stammen, Detwiler), matchup loogies (Blevins, Thornton) or guys who spent more time in AAA than the majors (Barrett, Treinen).
  • Hitter of the Year: Rendon, Werth obvious top 3 guys, but I like what Span‘s done this year in terms of jacking his average up.  Another classic contract year performance.
  • Slugger of the year: I just went with the team leaders in homers 1-2-3.  You would have thought that Harper would be here by now.
  • Defender of the year: looking at the various advanced stats, I ended up with Rendon for his excellent work at 2B and 3B, then Harper (an excellent UZR/150 in left on the year).  Span has a negative UZR/150 in center on the year, but passes the eye test.  I’ll be curious to see how he ends up looking in the other defensive metrics.  So he gets 3rd place essentially because there’s not another regular who has a positive UZR/150 on the team.
  • Comeback player: Storen makes the most sense … his comeback has been two years in the making.  Roark isn’t really a comeback guy as much as he’s a “making the most of his chances guy.”  Neither is Barrett honestly; but there’s not a good example of someone who was hurt or really came out of nowhere to make this team better.
  • Humanitarian: Honestly I only know of two guys on the Nats who actively do humanitarian/charity stuff and that’s Zimmerman and Desmond.
  • Minor League Player of the Year.  As discussed in the comments of another post recently, for me “Minor League Player of the Year” is a completely different list than the subtitle offered of “Minor league player most destined for big league success.”  POTY for me this year went Souza, Taylor and Giolito, while the top 3 prospects in our system probably are Giolito, Cole and Taylor.

Additional Questions

1) Of the players on the current active roster (or DL), which players do you think will not be part of the organization next season?

Pitchers: Blevins, Mattheus, Ohlendorf, Soriano, Detwiler

Out-field players: Solano, Cabrera, LaRoche, Frandsen, Span, Hairston, Schierholz

I’m guessing the team declines Soriano’s option, non-tenders Ohlendorf, Mattheus and Detwiler, and DFAs Blevins after his poor season.

Of the positional players, the team won’t exercise its options on LaRoche or Span, will have to end up DFA-ing Solano (and perhaps others; I havn’t done my options analysis yet) due to having no more options, and will let veteran FAs Frandsen, Hairston and Schierholz hit free agency.  I think Cabrera is going to command too much money for the team to realistically consider him.

2) Will Ian Desmond or Jordan Zimmermann sign a contract extension before they hit the free agent market?

No.  Both will go to FA.  Desmond to the Yankees to be the next Derek Jeter, Zimmermann to highest bidder.

3) Who was the biggest pleasant surprise on this year’s team?

Rendon’s advancement and central role on the team.

4) Who was the biggest disappointment?

Zimmerman’s continued inability to stay healthy.  A close second is Harper’s injury riddled season and struggles.

5) Who is your favorite professional Nats writer?

Mark Zuckerman #1.  After him, i’ll go with Adam Kilgore 2nd and Byron Kerr third.

6) Which is your favorite non-professional Nats blog or writer?

Luke Erickson; sorry to see him take a step back.  My #2 probably is NatsGM Ryan Sullivan, #3 Luigi de Guzman of Natsradamus (when he infrequently posts).

24 Responses to 'DC-IBWAA 2014 Poll results and my vote'

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  1. While I agree with you on most points, I see the Nats bringing Span back next year. His contract option is not all that large ($9 million) and Rizzo has shown time and again that he prefers veterans over the young guys when it comes to trying to win championships.

    Next year is the last hurrah for the current squad before the free agency defections begin. As such, I expect Rizzo will want the veteran Span in CF over the rookie Taylor while the latter fine tunes his game at Syracuse and come up as an injury replacement as needed.


    1 Oct 14 at 2:50 pm

  2. Can’t argue with your logic. You can argue the Span stays or goes both ways and both ways make sense. I probably just did a coin flip on stays/goes to put down that he’s out.

    But. If Span stays, you’re also implying a number of cascading decisions:
    – Your 2015 starting OF is now set; Harper, Span, Werth
    – Your 2015 OF bench is also pretty much set too, since McLouth is under contract and you can’t really carry another OF-only guy as your utility guy
    – That means both Taylor and Souza are in AAA again. What do they have left to prove in AAA?
    – If your 2015 OF is set, that means no room for Zimmerman in LF.
    – That means LaRoche is most certainly gone since Zimmerman needs to play
    – That means Rendon to third and we’re looking at a 2nd base “problem” again.

    I mean, i’m ok with this scenario for the most part. Begrudgingly I have to admit that Span really earned his pay this year after no doing so most of last year and most of the first half.

    Todd Boss

    1 Oct 14 at 3:05 pm

  3. Here’s a thought.

    Buster Olney postulates that the A’s might be looking to move one Josh Donaldson in this coming off-season, in order to cut down on payroll implications of his monster year on his arbitration salary.

    Rizzo calls up his favorite trading partner Beane, acquires Donaldson and installs him at 3rd. Rendon goes back to second. Problem solved.

    What would you give up to acquire Donaldson? How about another 4-person trade in the same light as the Gonzalez trade? Would you move Souza, Taylor, Hill and Voth for Donaldson? Too much? Too little?

    Todd Boss

    1 Oct 14 at 4:48 pm

  4. I agree with bdrube that Span gets the option, and I agree with most of your “ripple effects”. However, I think McLouth/Souza works fine for two of the bench (and Taylor could use another year in AAA working on better contact on breaking balls). (Souza provides more flexibility than Hairston did as that 5th bench slot).
    Donaldson would be great as that fourth infielder, but I’d bet instead on either a young (lower cost) 2B, or I wouldn’t be shocked if they convince Cabrera to stick around (I don’t think he will command as big a contract as it originally appeared he might).


    1 Oct 14 at 6:04 pm

  5. Todd–wow, lots of stuff to chew on. I was actually campaigning for a trade for Donaldson last off-season. But let’s combine a couple of things here. I don’t think Clip will be back next year, either. He will cost too much for a setup man. He needs to be packaged, and the A’s need a little relief!

    I’ve always thought Voth would be a Beane target; don’t know how much interest he would have in Hill. I don’t see Hill in the Nats plans; Voth could still have an outside chance by 2016, although the Nats tend to prefer harder throwers.

    I wouldn’t trade both Taylor and Souza in a zillion years. At least one, if not both, have a future on South Capitol. If one is traded, it likely would be Souza, but I don’t know that the Nats could get full value for his potential right now. (See thread from a few days ago about how he’s undervalued as a prospect.)

    Negatives on Donaldson: his OPS dropped 85 points this year, he would cost a big package, he isn’t that great a fielder (converted catcher), and, in a perfect world, the Nats need a LH bat more. Positives: he’s a WAR machine and not a FA until 2019! Let’s do it if the price is right. Deal could include Clip plus Span’s option year, and maybe Det.

    LaRoche–I don’t see any way they bring him back. They need 1B for Zim or Werth. Span–tough call, but he’s unlikely to repeat his career year, and they may need the $9M more than they need him, with Souza and Taylor in the wings. I think they may feel out Cabrera (as Dave B says) in the $5-6M/per range, but they won’t resign him for $10M. Still, he would be insurance if Desi walks, just not *that* much better than Espy.

    Blevins may save his spot for next year if he gets on the postseason roster and does OK. He’s still cheap, and they don’t have much LHP. It would be good if they could trade Det for potential starter value, but probably not. I also think T-Mo will be gone. In theory, teams shouldn’t give anything in return, as he’s out of options (I think) and will probably be a goner anyway, but Rizzo has a knack of getting decent prospects in return for these types of guys.

    As for the other stuff, hate to admit it, but I tend to agree that both Desi and Zmnn may be gone. Desi would be the more likely to sign, but I fear that would be an overpay by the Nats, particularly in contract length. I do hope they can do a deal with Fister, but one of reasonable length–four or five years at most. Of course the Nats will be saving all of their chips for Stras. After those four, however, things cool for years–they’ve got Gio through 2018, Harper through 2019, and Rendon through 2020.

    Yeah, we’ve definitely got too much time on our hands while waiting this week!


    1 Oct 14 at 7:58 pm

  6. I don’t think that gets a Donaldson deal done, as painful as it would be for us to lose both Souza and Taylor. Maybe swap Roark for Hill? I am not saying to do it, just that is the kind of deal needed to acquire a guy that has put up two straight top 5 MVP seasons and is just about to enter arbitration.

    I wouldn’t pay the price for him, a team like the Mets or the Marlins make more sense for an overpay like that for a guy that is cheap and can be the centerpiece of their offense. I like the idea of acquiring a young MI somehow. Maybe they get creative and develop a JZimm deal to BOS for Mookie Betts, or CHI for something built around one of their MI prospects, plus something else. Unfortunately, I do not think the Nats keep either JZimm or Stras, just too much money. Maybe Fister stays. But the post-window rotation looks like Fister, Roark, Gio, Cole, Treinen, Fedde, + emerging young guys. Lots of risk there.


    2 Oct 14 at 8:00 am

  7. Forensicane: you don’t think Donaldson is a good fielder?? He’s got an UZR/150 ABOVE 10 for the last three years running at third. That’s not a statistical anomoly/one great season, that’s consistently great range. His errors have increased of course … but I’ll take a guy who gets to more balls and then periodically throws one away versus a guy who doesn’t even get to them.

    I also don’t see the A’s taking Clippard; they want to pay *less* money in salary, not more.

    Wally: I don’t think you give up Roark right now for all the tea in china. A 3+ win starting pitcher on MLB minimum salary?? That’s the most valuable thing in baseball. He’s not even arbitration eligible for TWO more seasons. So the team owns his rights for 5 more years; if he just replicates what he did in 2014 that’s 15WAR for probably something in the range of $25M over the course of that time (assuming his salaries go something like 500k-500k-4M-8M-12M).

    Todd Boss

    2 Oct 14 at 8:27 am

  8. Perhaps Clip and Span don’t end up with the frugle A’s, but Beane is a master of the third-party deal.

    I agree that Roark is untouchable. The Nats have starting pitching to deal – Det, Hill, Jordan, Voth, Treinen. That’s a better rotation than some teams fielded this year. (Jordan, of course, will be on the recovery track.) The Nats do have some great chips to deal to go out and get a major piece, like a Donaldson, without touching the core.


    2 Oct 14 at 8:57 am

  9. Donaldson is in the MVP conversation and under team control for years. Cobbling spare parts (Detwiler, Hill, Jordan, Voth, Treinen, etc) together is not going to get that done. To get Donaldson you would need to include at least one of Roark, Cole or Taylor. Plus some spare parts that might get it done.

    Giolito obviously gets it done, but that ain’t happening. Sorry Beane.

    I agree that Span’s option is picked up, the OF is set for next year, and McLouth/Souza are on the bench waiting for someone to get hurt while making a decent L/R combination. Otherwise I’m largely on board with Todd’s points and votes. Go Nats!

    John C.

    2 Oct 14 at 9:06 am

  10. Wouldn’t it be bizarre if Cole got traded back to the A’s?

    I’ll concede that “spare parts” wouldn’t get a Donaldson deal done, which is why I was including Clip and Span’s option (probably going to a third-party team). However, for a potential acquisition as big as Donaldson, dare we think the unthinkable and talk about including Zimmermann, who likely won’t be resignable? Not sure how I would feel about that; just putting it out there. Our heirs apparent, Cole and Giolitto probably aren’t ready yet, so it would be a risky move as far as the 2015 rotation is concerned.


    2 Oct 14 at 9:22 am

  11. Zimmermann is going to cost $16.5M for 2015; that’s not the type of salary the A’s generally go after straight up, much less in exchange for a top player who, although the price is going up, is still relatively cheap. This is the same reason that Clippard and Span aren’t going to be desirable to the A’s – no team control and not particularly discounted.

    John C.

    2 Oct 14 at 10:53 am

  12. No one is untouchable, at least they shouldn’t be, imo. If someone offered a package for Roark valuing him at Todd’s description of a 3WAR pitcher for the next 5 years, would you want to sell high (that kind of pitcher brings back Gio’s package of prospects) or keep him and play it out? I dunno, I should probably believe in his numbers by now (250 IPs @ 3.25 FIP, which is great), but I find myself needing some more time. I think his success is primarily around control, plate discipline (Z-swing%) and weak contact; is weak contact a skill? I am not sure. I’d bet that most trading partners wouldn’t value Roark as a perennial 3 WAR pitcher yet.

    As for whether the Nats have SPs to deal, I actually don’t agree (not counting Hill , Det or Voth, which I think aren’t valued highly), unless you mean the SPs who look likely to leave. With Stras, JZ and Fister all currently set to leave in 1-2 years, I think we need to keep Treinen, Jordan, Cole for our own depth. Trading one of the Big Three early, to quicken the roster turnover, might be the right call, if you can’t resign 1 or 2 of them.


    2 Oct 14 at 12:48 pm

  13. If Beane rated Cole, he probably wouldn’t have traded him back, right? Besides, Rizzo has to be thinking that Cole/Giolito neatly replaces Zimmermann/Fister all else considered.

    I like the third party trade idea; I think Clippard could/should be a closer somewhere. His arb pricetag won’t be too bad, so he’d make a good option for a team that wants to spend money but struggled with its closers this year (Detroit?)

    Todd Boss

    2 Oct 14 at 12:50 pm

  14. Of all the guys that come out from under team control in the next year or two, Clip seems the most likely to leave. He can legitimately claim to be one of the most effective and durable relief pitchers over the last 5 years, with high leverage and closing experience. He’ll probably get a 3 yr, $20+m deal from someone, and I see almost no way Rizzo offers that (more and more, I think the Soriano deal was a Boras-Lerner deal).


    2 Oct 14 at 1:15 pm

  15. I’ll admit, it may be crazy to think Roark is a 3 win pitcher for 5 more years. But how else do you rate him right now? For all that discounted his amazing run at the end of 2013, we present 2014.

    Roark among the 88 qualified starters in MLB this year was:
    – 17th in the game in ERA
    – 31st in FIP
    – 52nd in xFIP
    – 31st in fWAR

    His pitch-to-contact, lack of K/9 knocks down his FIP and xFIP figures, but an out is an out right? I’d be extremely happy if he was my 5th starter for years to come.

    How’s this for rotation guesses going forward?
    – 2015: same 5 as 2014 (with Treinen, Hill as backup)
    – 2016: Stras, Gio, Roark, Cole, and an acquisition to be named
    – 2017: Gio, Roark, Cole, Giolito and acquisition to be named

    this assumes we don’t really matriculate any other starters of note from the lower minors, a bad suggestion for now. Can Treinen be a 5th starter to depend on?

    Todd Boss

    2 Oct 14 at 1:16 pm

  16. I don’t think its crazy, he has done this for 250 IPs. And his FIP is great (3.25). And an added bonus is this: in 2013, he got a ridiculously high % of called strikes; that number regressed in 2014 yet he was still highly productive (which is good, its more sustainable). It is still high but now its like top 25, not top 2.

    But pretend to be on the other side for a second, and ask yourself what would you give up for him? If you believe those numbers will project out, that brings back Mookie Betts, Allen Webster plus a low minors guy. Would you do that? I can’t see Cherington doing that.

    As for the rotation, I do think Treinen can be a solid back end guy for a few years. Think they have to decide this winter who they can resign, and flip one of the others for some pieces, though. I haven’t completely given up on Jordan either if he can get and stay healthy, although I see him as a depth piece, not one of the top 5.


    2 Oct 14 at 1:38 pm

  17. Wally; agree completely. Roark will continue to be undervalued, just as Fister has always been. Which is great for the Nats while we keep him, but bad if we try to move him. So we don’t move him 🙂

    Zimmermann used to be in that underrated category too. No longer; his 19 win season, his no-hitter, his dominance this year will earn him a significant pay day. One that will have more casual fans shaking their heads, going “Who just got $120M?”

    Damn, i knew I was forgetting someone in that mix. I’m writing these responses in 30 second increments while I do real work 🙂

    Todd Boss

    2 Oct 14 at 2:00 pm

  18. I think JZimm goes closer to $150m. If Scherzer gets $175m, JZ is 2 years younger and is he really that much worse?

    Here is a Souza question from Fangraphs chat (Eno Sarris). I don’t put much stock in anyone’s particular answer, but I like to hear different viewpoints. This one seemed less thoughtful than others, and made some pretty big generalities, like strikeout problem and SSS from his debut.

    Comment From Sandy A
    What is your take on Stephen Souza’s likely ceiling?
    Eno Sarris:
    25? Hard hitting? Right-hander? Strikeout issues? No hits against righties in debut? I think maybe he’s a righty platoon bat.


    2 Oct 14 at 2:21 pm

  19. Wally, I saw that comment and posted a response in the comments section: does Souza really have strikeout issues? He doesn’t have enough plate appearances in the majors to say much either way (7 Ks in 26 PA). His K% in his first go around in AAA this year was 18.4%, virtually identical to his K% in A ball in 2012. It was a tick higher (23.5%) in AA in 2013, but if that’s the high side it’s tolerable for a guy with speed and power. And he’ll take a walk (BB in 12.8% of PA at AAA, 12.7% in AA, 14.8% in A+).

    I know that we have this idea that Souza is K-prone, but in the modern game is a K% of 18% really bad? Desmond K’s at 28.2%, Harper at 26.3%. Laroche K’s at 18.4%. Werth at 17.97%.

    John C.

    2 Oct 14 at 5:06 pm

  20. Interesting discussion. I do not see the Nats trading for Donaldson for this reason — Rizzo does not trade for players at peak trade value. Span was coming off a concussion, Gio was an all star but not the pitcher he became in 2012 (still needing to cut down on walks), and Fister was great but not glamorous. Even the discussion of Gregorius should tell us, strategically, what the FO regards as a legit target.

    With that said, I also can’t see these “back up the truck deals” happening. The team is not the 2011 team needing to acquire a Gio. The missing pieces are too close at hand — if there are missing pieces. Why blow up the farm system?

    There are two types of deals that I think could can happen.

    1) Trading one of the prospective free agents who will definitely not sign or has demands that just cannot be met because of their ripple on salary structure going forward.

    2) Trading surplus high (perceived) value minor league talent. The system has really taken a leap forward in depth; I think the instrux league and AFL will tell them a lot about what depth flexibility they have. But right now it’s upper level pitching.

    Rizzo sells higher and buys lower. He also trades surplus before it goes stale, before it becomes a 40 man issue.

    Roark? No way! Cole? Now you’re talking. He’s very young and very blocked if they sign someone else. Treinen? he certainly got quite the showcase. Jordan? Undervalued. Will not be moved. Cole and Treinen, to me are the most leverageable chips.

    Souza will not be traded (unless there is a clubhouse issue), because his skill set is not replaceable, and because I think the Nats feel his skills will play at the ML level and he will simply continue to improve. Taylor? Has that much higher a ceiling? Trading either of those would recall the Bartolo Colon and Langston fiascos which are low points for the franchise – even lower than certain free agent defections, if that is even possible.
    If God is a baseball fan, he will make Omar Minaya become an executive for Jeffrey Loria.

    Now, if you REALLY want to strategize, you think Rey Lopez is the trade chip, because his hyping is off the charts right now. We KNOW Giolito is that good.


    2 Oct 14 at 5:26 pm

  21. By the way, I agree with KW that Voth is a great example, for the reasons just mentioned. Let’s see how ballyhooed he is when the Carolina League ratings come out.

    We can dismiss a person like him who blew through two levels before tiring in AA, but just remember that Robbie Ray was the cornerstone of what brought the Nats Doug Fister last year. Yes, Ray is a lefty, but the Tigers first choice was Jordan.

    I think a lot of folks believe that Voth is the truth. Taylor Hill isn’t sexy to some of us, but was Tommy Milone? Was Nate Karns? Being valued by TB and Detroit is a statement. This system has more cards than it did at this time last year — even with a horrible injury year that took out half of its next wave. Impressive.

    But not to be taken for granted.


    2 Oct 14 at 7:08 pm

  22. Good discussion here. I think it needs to be said somewhere that a Donaldson acquisition would be *very* unlikely. I’m not sure Billy fears his salary *that* much, and if he does make him available, there would be plenty of bidders.

    That said, it would be great for the Nats if they could pull it off. Donaldson might be the best player out there at 3B or 2B whom the Nats could plug in and really improve their situation. And Beane does like the type of deals that Rizzo likes; they know how to work with each other.

    Souza would seem to be very much a Beane type of guy, with high OBP and some power. (And as John C. notes, a K rate that isn’t that concerning.) Billy might want a four-for-one deal as with Gio, or more. But remember, there were no big names or sure things going to OAK in that one, so I don’t know that it would take it in this case, either. I think Souza and Voth would be the most Beane-like targets. He might want Severino. Clippard could be included for the A’s either to keep or to flip to a third party (to the Twins for Suzuki? Ha!).

    Anyway, those are the types of chips Rizzo would trade. He doesn’t mess with the core, or at least he hasn’t since the Nats became contenders.


    2 Oct 14 at 8:41 pm

  23. I’ll start another comment about Todd’s speculative rotations for the years to come. (Again, this would be good grist for a longer Hot Stove column.)

    2015: I agree that the rotation will be the same in 2015 and should be very strong. I floated the idea of a Zimmermann trade, but it would take a *major* return to consider that, and I’m not sure many teams would be willing to give up something major to rent a guy for one year. (Did someone just holler “Dodgers”? But who do they have whom the Nats would want and would want to pay?)

    2016: Zmnn gone, but I will hold out hope that they can get Fister on a four-year deal. He would ease the transition quite a bit. We can’t expect GMs out there to keep giving Rizzo guys like Gio and Fister, can we? If Cole is going to make it, he should be ready by 2016, and perhaps Giolito gets in that mix as well, at least by mid-season.

    2017: I know, Stras will probably have joined Kershaw, Greinke, and Zimmermann in the Dodger rotation, but I do think that of all the pitchers, the Nats will make a substantial bid to keep him (perhaps too substantial). Will it be enough? Will Giolito have already had his 14 K debut in 2016, allowing the Nats to just wave goodbye? Here’s hoping they keep him, so they could have Stras, Gio, Fister, Roark, and Giolito/Cole. They would then control this group through 2018 as well, after which Gio would leave.


    2 Oct 14 at 8:58 pm

  24. John C – I agree with you, I took it as a lazy answer by Sarris based mostly on his pro debut stats, which are too small to matter. His minor league stats show a guy with slightly worse than average K rates, and while it should get a little worse in the pros, it will still be average for today’s pro game.

    Taylor might have a strikeout problem, but that is due to markedly higher K rates over a large body of work.


    3 Oct 14 at 8:12 am

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