Nationals Arm Race

Jesus Flores' general reaction to his injury troubles for the past two seasons. Photo Toni Sandys/Washington Post

MASN Nats beat writer Ben Goessling touched on this same issue back in December and came to the same conclusion that I have: The Washington Nationals may have some catching depth to spare when April 1st rolls around.  We have Ivan Rodriguez and Wilson Ramos as the incumbents (having DFA’d last year’s backup Wil Nieves, since signed by Milwaukee).  But we also have former starter Jesus Flores coming back from injury and seemingly healthy.   Plus our #1 hitting prospect not named Bryce Harper is Derek Norris, also a catcher.

At the end of the spring, I think we’re going to see Flores winning out the 2nd catcher position (by virtue of his age, his experience with the team, and the memory of his 130 OPS+ numbers he put up in 2009 before getting hurt).  But there’s little value in having one of the better Catching prospects in all of baseball languishing in Syracuse while we wait to see if Pudge or Flores suffers an injury.

I can see the Nats moving Ramos or Flores if the right deal comes about.  But, the Nats probably need an entire spring training of production out of both guys to prove to other teams that they are healthy and viable candidates.  Flores might be a tough sell to teams since he missed most of the last two seasons and seems brittle … but his numbers when he’s healthy are middle-of-the-order.  Meanwhile the entire league knows what Ramos is capable of and he may be a better trade candidate.

Also factoring in is the development of Derek Norris; at this point we’re all assuming he’s going to start in AA and be ready to take over one of the two MLB catcher spots when Pudge’s contract expires after this season.  If Norris takes a huge step back or suffers a season-ending injury, then nobody is going anywhere and the Nats will plan for Ramos/Flores platoon in 2012.

The Nats still have needs at the MLB level for 2011 though; you can argue that we really could improve at LF, CF and in the starting rotation.  Meanwhile, there are several teams out there going into 2011 with question marks at catcher.  Looking at these depth charts league wide, here’s some possible trade partners (barring injury to existing guys of course):

• LA Angels: Jeff Mathis and Hank Conger are their current catcher starters.  Who?  Conger is very young but neither hit the Mendoza line for 2010.  But the Angels so badly bungled this off season they may be reticent to make any more trades.
• LA Dodgers: Gave up on Russell Martin, so going into 2011 with journeyman Rod Barajas (career .239 hitter) and AJ Ellis (turns 30 in april and has a grand total of 141 major league plate appearances to his credit).  They have starter depth (Padilla looks to be odd man out and would improve our rotation).
• Boston: Jarrod Saltalamacchia is listed as the starter over the ancient Jason Varitek; neither guy can actually hit and both are defensive liabilities.  Boston is clearly making a playoff push and may want a top-end defensive guy behind the plate for the playoffs.
• Colorado: Chris Iannetta only hit .197 last year but has shown glimpses of power in the past.  Colorado let their 2010 starter (Soto) walk but they may have a hole at the Catcher position.
• Milwaukee: we could convince the Brewers to upgrade from up and comer Jonathan Lucroy for their 2011 playoff push.  But they’ve emptied their farm system and probably have little we would want in return.
• NY Yankees: are they really expecting Russell Martin to be the savior?  Or is there going to be a C/DH platoon with him and Posada (more likely the answer).
• NY Mets: catcher has been a thorn in this team ever since the Nats “stole” Flores from them in the rule5 draft in 2006.  Now they’re going into 2011 with the very young Josh Thole as the starter.  But the Mets are a total mess right now and probably don’t make any more moves until the Madoff lawsuits are settled.
• Kansas City, Pittsburgh, San Diego and Houston teams that *could* use catcher depth but which would never purchase it given their current rebuilding status (or cheapness as a franchise).

It should be interested to see if a trade surfaces early on into the season.  We’ll see.

I cannot recall which National’s blogger used to do this (providing his/her own answers to the questions in Bill Ladson’s mailbag) but I thought i’d give it a shot.

Here’s the latest installment of his mailbag.  And here’s how i’d answer the questions he took.

Q: When does Ryan Zimmerman get a contract extension similar to the one Troy Tulowitzki received from the Rockies?

A: Probably never; odds are that he leaves our franchise for greener pastures (read, a competing team) where he immediately becomes a perennial MVP candidate and solidifies his Hall of Fame candidacy.  Because as it stands now, he’s winning only the title of “most under-rated player in the game.”  Go look at Mark Teixeira‘s stats and season-ending accomplishments just before and just after his New York signing.  Or ask Bert Blyleven why it took so long to get into the hall after playing for crummy teams his whole career.

Q: I think center fielder Nyjer Morgan played OK last year and deserves to be the leadoff hitter. I believe no one else on the current roster can hit at the top of the lineup. What do you think?

A: Morgan regressed both professionally and statistically last year, and Rizzo should have tried harder to find a replacement.  What’s probably going to happen is Morgan starting the season as a starter, he’ll hit .220 for a month and a half, and we’ll banish him to AAA before non-tendering him next off season.  I feel we should have tried harder to replace him in the off-season.

Q: If Bryce Harper has a great Spring Training, do you think the Nationals will keep him on the 25-man roster or send him to the Minors?

A: No way for one simple reason: “Super 2 status.”  Best case scenario has Harper blowing through the low-A and high-A leagues, then starting 2012 in AA before getting called up June 1st to delay his arbitration clock and play left field for the team (or perhaps moving Werth to left and starting in RF).

Q: Do you think Chien-Ming Wang could return to the form that made him one of the top pitchers with the Yankees? What is the latest on his physical condition?

A: Signs point to no after a lost 2010 season.  At least he’s less of a payroll burden this year when he misses the entire season.  By all accounts he’s supposedly at 100% but nobody knows what we’ll get until he starts throwing in Viera.  I could see him flashing promise in Viera then spending 3 months on the DL.

Q: In 2007, the Nationals came to camp with so many starting pitchers that they were drawing attention from the local media. This year, the Nationals have a similar situation as far as the number of starting pitchers. Can you tell the difference between the two years? Why should Nats fans be encouraged by this year’s class?

A: Definitely disagree here; unlike in 2007 there is almost no starter competition planned.  We have a presumptuous opening day roster of starters and only an injury or a huge spring upset will change that.  Lots of the Spring Training invite guys are going to be buried in AAA or were invited as professional courtesy for past years of service.  As far as encouragement for this year’s rotation; it is marginally better than the 5 guys who started 2010 and has some potential for improving with prospects that we value well.  It isn’t a league-leading rotation but it has some basis for growth towards 2012/2013.

Q: Do you think the Nationals need one more big-time bat or proven hitter to get them to .500 in 2011?

A: No, they need 3 more proven starters.  See Giants, San Francisco for building a winning team with a poor offense.

Q: What are the chances of the Nats making a run at Prince Fielder next offseason? It seems that one more big bat would make them a very good team.

A: Like the movie, the answer here is “Less than Zero.”  Rizzo wants UZR/150 plus-plus fielders across the board, and Fielder is absolutely NOT that.  Ladsen say’s we’re committed to LaRoche; I’d disagree with that sentiment too.  He is a 2 year stop-gap until either Chris Marrero matriculates and earns his spot or another option becomes available.

JD Martin's days could be numbered with the team. Photo courtesy of natsnewsnetwork.blogspot.com

1/19/11 Update: with the signing of reliever Todd Coffey, the team now appears to be three men over the limit.  Oh, and about 2 hours later the signing of infielder Jerry Hairston now requiring four guys to be dropped or traded.  One player has been cleared off the 40-man; the predicted JD Martin given his outright release unfortunately later in the afternoon.

Unless I’ve forgotten how to count, and unless I really do not understand the 40-man roster rules, the Nationals have been over the limit for nearly two weeks now.  They signed Adam LaRoche on 1/4/11, then made the announcement official on 1/7/11.  Answer: per Zuckerman’s posting today, “corresponding [40-man roster] moves don’t have to be made until the contract for the new player is formally processed at MLB headquarters in New York.”  LaRoche’s contract didn’t hit NY til today, so the Martin release is the corresponding move.  Still 3 to go.

Yet, here we are on 1/19/11 and no corresponding move has occurred yet.  The Nationals’ 40-man roster has been above 40 ever since.  I believe teams have to make immediate moves but do not have to make them public; a player could have been designated for assignment on 1/7/11, at which point the team has 10 days to actually decide what to do with him.  So perhaps tomorrow 1/19/11 (since we had a holiday mixed in there?) we’ll have an answer.

Likewise, Tom Gorzelanny will also require a corresponding move, since none of the 3 players traded for him were on the 40-man to start with.  With his addition (yes the trade has been announced but it will not be official until all physicals are passed) we’ll be at 42 (43 with the Coffey signing).

So, who on the current 40-man roster is next to go?  If we need to clear four spots without a major trade, then my initial guesses are:

1. Justin Maxwell: I know that Maxwell is a local and is a fan favorite, but the fact remains that we now have at least 5 outfielders with major league time last year (Werth, Ankiel, Morgan, Bernadina, and Morse) that seem to be ahead of Maxwell on the depth chart, plus a 6th outfielder prospect who will get a look prior to Maxwell at this point (CBrown).  He’s never produced at the MLB level and is now far too old to be considered a prospect.

2. J.D. Martin: Martin is probably the right-handed starter version of Maxwell.  He’s fallen down the depth chart, his name isn’t being mentioned as even competing for a rotation spot out of spring, and the argument can be made that he’s not in the top 5 players to make the AAA rotation.  He’s always had ok numbers when he’s pitched in the majors but in a power-arm league, spots for soft-tossing slight-of-frame right handers are limited.

3. The third and fourth spots are tougher.  I think #3 may end up being someone like Luis Atilano.  Mediocre MLB numbers in 2010, coming off of injury, he probably can sneak through waivers as Chico did and get assigned to AAA to try to get back.  He’ll be 26, slightly older than you want in a prospect, and he’s clearly not in the MLB rotation battle for 2011.

4. Atahualpa Severino: he has no mlb experience and is behind Slaten in the loogy battle right now.  However, other teams may see that we just added him to the 40-man last year and might take a look.  He’s a bit old for a prospect with no MLB time and he could slip through waivers.

This 4th spot is a stretch though, and I think honestly a better way to clear space may be a set of prospects trade for a veteran.  I don’t see at this point how Morse or Detwiler makes the 25-man roster, so perhaps we should look instead to package these guys for a player.

Other candidates (and their reasons for keeping them over Atilano and Martin right now) could be Mock (lively fastball, good stuff and a favorite of the organization), Martis (still young and still could prosper),  and Marrero (still too early to give up on him; needs one more season to prove he belongs but he’s clearly blocked for 2 years by LaRoche; could be a trade candidate).

The Nats lucked out and get to retain Chico's services after his DFA. Photo: Commons.wikimedia.org

The signings of Chien-Ming Wang and Rick Ankiel of last week forced the hands of the Nats, putting them 2 players above the 40-man limitation on the aptly named 40-man roster.

(Coincidentally, there was some confusion, based on the announcement of the resigning of minor leaguer Ryan Mattheus, about whether or not he was also on the 40-man, but beat writer Zuckerman cleared the situation up in his post yesterday:

For those wondering whether they needed to drop another person to make room for right-hander Ryan Mattheus, a club official explained that while Mattheus did sign a major-league contract this fall, he did so before getting outrighted to Syracuse. Basically, he’s a minor-leaguer not on the 40-man roster with a major-league contract.

Thus, we only had to clear TWO spots not three, as was speculated all week in the blogger community).

To make room on the roster, the Nats DFA’d Matt Chico and Aaron Thompson this week.  Chico made his way through the waivers process and was assigned to AAA, but we found out this morning that Thompson was claimed by Pittsburgh and we have lost our trade “bounty” for Nick Johnson from a couple years back.

Now, not that Thompson’s performance in the minors the last couple years merited his place in the future plans of the Nationals (he was pretty much awful in AA this year: 4-13 with a 5.80era, 1.59 whip and a 95/53 k/bb ratio in 136 2/3 innings) but I find the choices of players DFA’d curious.  Left handed pitchers are the hardest positions to fill, and yet we’ve released two of them.

Why risk two left-handed pitchers, one of which is still quite young and was once a coveted prospect, instead of players on the roster who clearly guys who are no longer in the plans of the team?

Cases in point:

1. Justin Maxwell.  He’s 27, he’s never come close to putting up decent numbers in the majors (career slash line: .201/.319/.379 in 260 PAs), and he’s now 8th out of 8 outfielders on our 40 man outfielder depth chart (in rough order: Werth, Morgan, Bernadina, Morse, Ankiel, Harper, CBrown and him).  Are we expecting Maxwell to make the team out of spring training?  Do we really think he’s going to beat out Bernadina, Morse, or Ankiel?  Didn’t we just acquire Brown from the A’s to eventually compete for and/or win the left fielder job?

I like Maxwell; he’s a local guy and has shown flashes of brilliance.  But he’s too old to make sense in Syracuse and its time to move on.

2. JD Martin: He will be 28 by next spring training and has career major league numbers of 6-9, 4.32 era, 1.396 whip and a 96 era+.  Not bad (actually better numbers than guys like Mock, Stammen and Detwiler) but nothing special.  He is a soft-tossing slightly built right handed pitcher in a league that is trending towards large bodied, power throwing right handers as the norm.  What exactly does Martin have that can’t be easily replicated from any AAA rotation in the minors?

And more importantly (as with Maxwell) where exactly does Martin fit into the plans for the rotation next year?  I have him ranked either 13th or 14th out of our 14 Starters right now (in rough order of value to the team Strasburg, Zimmermann, Lannan, Marquis, LHernandez, Maya, Stammen, Detwiler, Martis, Mock, Atilano,Wang, Martin, Broderick).  In other words, he’s going to have trouble cracking the AAA rotation (by my guesses, Chico, Mock, Atilano, Martis and Detwiler right now).

Dropping guys off the 40-man is always a risky affair.  Earlier this off-season lots of blogger noise was heard from the curious dropping of Juan Jaime, who was subsequently claimed by Arizona.  At the time we still had several players who we KNEW we were not going to offer arbitration (specifically Wil Nieves), so why drop a young hard-thrower?  That move didn’t make sense then and doesn’t make sense now.

Today’s moves cost us a prospect needlessly.  Lets hope the team picks the right players the next time they make a move.

Mike Rizzo answering the latest question about where the money is coming from for the Werth contract. Photo: centerfieldgate.com

Each year heading into the off-season, I make up a transactional “to-do” list for the team (as if I were the GM).  Essentially you look at the roster and kind of work backwards.  Based on the way things looked at the end of 2010, the Nationals seemed set on:

• C (Pudge, Ramos)
• most of the infield: 2b (Espinosa), SS (Desmond), 3B (Zimmerman)
• LF (Willingham)
• 3-4 starters (Lannan, Marquis, LHernandez, Zimmermann), and
• several relievers (Clippard, Burnett, Storen)

So, given this, here’s what I listed as off season priorities and where we stand post the Winter Meetings (and counting all the rumors and scuttlebutt we’ve been hearing):

Fantasy

• Power hitting reliable RF
• Top-of-the-rotation Starting Pitcher
• Better Centerfielder/Leadoff Hitter

1. In what was easily the most surprising move this team has done since relocating from Montreal, we acquired a front-line marquee FA in Jayson Werth, satisfying the “power hitting RF” fantasy requirement.  Yes there are concerns about the contract’s length and value, but hey, we’re a better team for getting him.

2. Rizzo has definitely made mention of wanting to acquire a “top of the rotation” starter but they are hard to come by this off season.  Cliff Lee is the target, and from there the list dwindled quickly to include guys who were middle of the road veterans with question marks (Vazquez, Pavano), FA starters that weren’t exactly planning on going anywhere (Lilly, Kuroda, de La Rosa, Arroyo, Garland, Padilla) and incredibly risky alternatives (Webb, Darvish, Francis).

3. Lastly, despite my desire to upgrade from Nyjer Morgan in center and leadoff (for reasons that include discipline, chemistry and performance), Rizzo seems set on the guy for the time being.  I would not be surprised to see no more movement in this area.  I advocated trading Willingham to Boston for possible spare-part outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury in a previous post, but despite Willingham’s offensive capabilities Boston may also value defense and may not really be interested in acquiring more bats this off season.

Reality

• First Baseman
• 1-2 Veteran FA pitchers
• Utility Middle Infielder

1. Acquiring a first baseman included the possibility of re-signing Adam Dunn, despite all indications that it was never to happen.  Rizzo clearly will take less power for more defense at first, and we seem destined to sign Adam LaRoche (after missing out on Carlos Pena, the player I was absolutely sure we’d get).  Frankly, for my money I’d rather have LaRoche.  He’ll sign a 2 year deal for less than any of Dunn, Pena, Konerko or Huff would have signed for, he hits for power and he is a plus defender.  I think he’s perfect until we figure out if Chris Marrero or someone even more remote (like high-A stud hitter and Nats minor leaguer of the year in 2010 Tyler Moore) becomes a possibility.  A final thought; I do NOT want to be left with Derrek Lee as the solution.  He’s a right handed hitter on a team that is now full of them.  Zimmerman, Willingham, Werth all righties; we need a lefty slugger to break up the middle of our batting order.

2. I still see the acquisition of one or two veteran FA pitchers on the horizon.  I can see us (unless someone foolishly offers him $10M) signing Brandon Webb on a one year flier.  I can see us re-signing Wang to a minor league deal with an invite to spring training.

3. The backup middle infielder is a lower priority but still important.  If Desmond/Espinosa are holding down the starting spots and Alberto Gonzalez is begrudingly serving as the primary glove-man backup, we still need a second player that can do middle infield.  Willie Harris has been that player but he really tailed off last season.  Adam Kennedy served as the backup for the right side of the infield but he clearly wants to start.  I was lobbying for Pete Orr as a nice cheap candidate; he had always produced for us when called up, could play 2nd, 3rd or even outfield.  But he signed elsewhere as a minor league FA.  Perhaps the answer is a prospect to be named (Lombardozzi?) or a FA signing.  I like David Eckstein to team him up with his hitting-coach brother but he probably wants a starting job too.  And Eckstein wouldn’t make sense unless we traded one of Desmond/Espinosa (still a possibility; see later).

Less Likely

• FA Closer
• Trade for a Veteran pitcher
• 1 veteran bullpen presence

1. There are a couple closer-types on the FA market and I can now see the Nats picking one up ala their deal with Matt Capps to cover for Storen as he grows into the spot.  Jenks, Dotel,Gregg, Hoffman, Soriano, Wood all available (Soriano a type-A though, so we wont’ get him).  I think this would make for a good piece of business and could serve as a useful trade chip mid season.

2. I can see us working out a trade with Tampa Bay to acquire Matt Garza.  Tampa wants to get rid of payroll, not add it, but perhaps we can pre-arrange a one-year deal with Willingham and flip him to Tampa.  Washington could eat some of the salary and Willingham would slot nicely into the left field spot recently vacated by Carl Crawford.  Tampa may like this deal since Willingham projects to be a type-A free agent and would net them 2 picks when he leaves (you have to think Willingham wants to get at least a 3-year deal when he hits the FA market based on his age and his proclivities for injuries).  Of course, getting rid of Willingham also puts a hole into OUR lineup, one that looks pretty promising when we get a power hitting lefty first baseman.  And we certainly would like to get some compensation picks to continue to rebuild the farm system.  More likely Tampa would ask for someone like Desmond, which would be a tough trade to swallow for a team that hasn’t really developed that many marquee players in the last 5 years.  We could trade Desmond, acquire Garza, move Espinosa to short (where he’s a better fielder anyway) then sign a short term 2nd baseman like David Eckstein or Orlando Hudson until one of our high-end 2nd base prospects (Lobardozzi, Rick Hague or Jeff Kobernus) is ready to go.

3. Lastly, with not one but TWO arms picked up in the rule5 draft, the likelihood of us acquiring any veteran bullpen arms seems nil.  Perhaps we re-sign Peralta as a long man, but we have plenty of cover there in Balester and Stammen.  We have all the arms we could want coming up (Kimball, Carr, Wilkie all project as mid-bullpen arms, and the AA team is filled with good arms with no place to move up to with so many AAA starters on the 40-man) and we have three great live arms in Storen, Clippard and Burnett already in place.

It has been a pretty fun offseason to track thus far for Nats fans.  I can’t wait to see what happens next.

Rizzo; go get this guy! Photo Bosoxinjection.com

The Red Sox’s signing of Carl Crawford to a 7yr, $142M contract (a contract undoubtedly pushed skyward by the Nats Jayson Werth deal a few days earlier)  makes for a rather imposing possible Red Sox Lineup in 2011.  Here’s a probable opening day lineup:

1. 2B Dustin Pedroia (R)
2. LF Carl Crawford (L)
3. 1B Adrian Gonzalez (L)
4. 3B Kevin Youkilis (R)
5. DH David Ortiz (L)
6. RF J.D. Drew (L)
7. SS Marco Scutaro (R)
8. C Jarrod Saltalamacchia (S)
9. CF Jacoby Ellsbury (L)

Now, one thing is immediately apparent with this lineup.  They are incredibly lefty-heavy through the heart of their order.  And in a division with CC Sabathia, probably Andy Pettitte and potentially Cliff Lee on their main competitor, this could be rather bad during key divisional games.

Clearly the Red Sox need to get some righty help in the heart of their lineup.  Enter Josh Willingham.

Trade Proposal: The Nats trade Willingham and a decent prospect (perhaps one of our AA pitchers) to the Red Sox for Jacoby Ellsbury.  Crawford slides over to center for Boston, Willingham plays left, and you have Mike Cameron as your late inning defensive replacement outfielder.

Ellsbury is exactly what the Nats need; leadoff center fielder who shows more promise and more self control than our current leadoff/CF Nyjer Morgan.  He lost most of 2010 to injury but in 2009 lead the league in stolen bases and would give us good defense in center per his uzr/150 rankings.  He’s cost contained (not yet arbitration eligible) and we’d control him for at least 3 more years.

Willingham’s approach at the plate fits the Sabremetric-thinking Red Sox; he has a high OBP, sees a lot of pitches and puts up a good OPS when healthy.  He is defensively challenged but left field at Fenway might be the best place in all of baseball to “hide” a crummy defender.  He’d give the Red Sox a righty presence in the middle of the lineup and replace a 9th place hitter with a middle of the order hitter.  He’s in the last year of arbitration but still projects to be relatively cheap (by Boston’s standards), probably earning around $6M/year.  He clearly wants to set down roots and could be a nice 3 or 4-year signing in Boston.

With Willingham, here’s a Potential Boston lineup:

1. 2B Dustin Pedroia (R)
2. CF Carl Crawford (L)
3. 3B Kevin Youkilis (R)
4. 1B Adrian Gonzalez (L)
5. LF Josh Willingham (R)
6. DH David Ortiz (L)
7. RF J.D. Drew (L)
8. SS Marco Scutaro (R)
9. C Jarrod Saltalamacchia (S)

Now they go R-L alternatively for the first 6 hitters, and if Saltamacchia catches or if Varitek gets some ABs they both switch hit and could slot above Scutaro to give even more flexibility.

Who says no first?

I'd be smoking a cigar too, if I was Jayson Werth tonight. Photo: fanshots.com

I avoided the obvious pun in the title, but clearly the 7yr $126M dollar deal we just signed with Jayson Werth is going to stir some serious blog “ink” over the next couple days.  In fact, reading some quick twitter comments from the leading reporters at the winter meetings seem to indicate that this deal has completely “shaken up” the meetings, that other teams are stunned, that rival execs are “pissed” and that this could be a game changer contract in the league.

The good:

– Jayson Werth’s numbers over the past few years are definitely strong.  He finished up last year with a 145 OPS+ figure, putting him 5th in the NL.

– Despite having clearly better numbers in his walk year, he has been a rather consistent performer when looking at his WAR figures over the past few years.  5.1, 4.9 and 5.0 over the past three seasons.  Consistent.

– He plays RF, where we’re desperately in need of a slugger.  He can also play center and left (though his UZR/150 numbers for center are god-awful).  His LF defensive value is quite good though.

– Fangraphs.com just posted analysis that essentially validates his salary as compared to the typical value of WAR on the FA market, and says that it isn’t really that bad of a contract.  For now any way; we’ll see what happens as he ages and if/when he tails off.

The immediate bad:

– 7 years guaranteed for a guy who just turned 31.  $18M (average contract value) per year for a guy in his age 37 and 38 years.  Scary.  This contract immediately becomes more or less untradable.

– We commit 7 years to a right fielder, when we have the best hitting prospect (and dedicated right fielder) in baseball in Bryce Harper slated to arrive mid-way through the contract.  I’ll guess Werth moves to LF naturally.

– Wouldn’t we have rather committed 56M on Adam Dunn instead of more than twice that for a lesser hitter?

– Intangibles: we now have an $18M/year player on the books, which is more than twice the Face of the Franchise’s 2011 number.  Problematic in the club house?  Or will the young leader recognize that his time to “get paid” is coming and that Werth’s contract is indicative of his body of work over the past few years?

– We lose a draft pick; but because our 1st rounder is protected we’ll only lose our 2nd round pick.  However, we picked up the White Sox’s pick in the Dunn deal so we still have essentially 3 first rounders in 2011’s deep draft.

I’ll say this; the addition of Werth plus the eventual addition of a first baseman (Carlos Pena or possibly Adam LaRoche) greatly greatly improves this lineup.  We’re now looking at something like this:

1. (L) Morgan CF
2. (R) Desmond SS/2b
3. (R) Zimmerman 3b
4. (L) Pena 1b
5. (R) Werth rf
6. (R) Willingham LF
7. (S) Espinosa 2nd/ss
8. (R) Pudge C
9. pitcher

A little right-handed heavy right now.  Another potential future move could be to trade Willingham for a starter and put lefty-hitting Bernadina in left.  That’d be a nice balance of R-L-R-L in the heart of the order.  This move immediately marginalizes both Bernadina and Morse though; perhaps we’ll see them moved as part of a deal to get someone like Matt Garza.

Conclusion: The Nationals have proven several times in the past two offseasons that they need to overpay to get FAs to come here.  We offered Teixeira more money than New York, and reportedly we offered De La Rosa more money than he took to return to Colorado.  I think this is the Nationals essentially “buying” their way into the discussions for free agents, now and in the future.  It’s definitely a hitter we needed, and hopefully by the time his contract reaches albatross level it won’t matter because we’ll be winning and he’ll be a part of it.

Nats fans have seen Adam Dunn do this for the last time. Photo: seasonticketdc.com

Several years ago, I began a rant about the Nats payroll levels vis-a-vis our market size that essentially continues through to today.  Washington DC as a market is clearly a large market:

• We are 7th in total population (when measured by Metropolitan Statistical Areas); just behind Miami/Ft. Lauderdale and Dallas and just ahead of  Houston and Detroit.
• We are 9th in terms of DMA TV households (just behind Atlanta/Boston and just ahead of Houston and Detroit again).

And yet, in 2010 we had the 23rd ranked payroll of the 30 teams, spending just $66M in salary (2010 opening day number).  Meanwhile the teams located in comparable cities spent much much more.  Houston had a $92m payroll, Detroit $122M, Atlanta $84M.  Miami and Boston are outliers for separate and obvious reasons (Boston essentially services the entire NE area while the Florida Marlins owners are the worst examples of owners taking advantage of the revenue sharing system in the league).

According to my estimates (available here or via the link in the Nats Creations section to the right), the Nats (as of publication) have $29M committed for 2011, and likely will have a payroll that is around $46.5M once all arbitration cases are settled.  Notice this is almost exactly $20M less than in 2010 (Dunn at $12M and Guzman at $8M neatly equal the delta).

Clearly, the Nats need to be increasing payroll.  I’m pretty sure this is one of the reasons Kasten left the team frankly; I don’t think he saw eye to eye with the Lerners in terms of payroll outlay.  Certainly not in terms of the 2009 opening day roster team, which was an abomination of a roster and successfully gutted the season ticket base and fan satisfaction leading into the new stadium.

BUT, and this is a large But, we should not just arbitrarily spend money just to spend it.  So we have a conundrum.  With Vazquez and De La Rosa off the market, the FA pitcher market is, as Jayson Stark put it, a disaster area.  With the exception of an experimental flyer on Webb, I wouldn’t want a single guy left.  Jon Heyman ranked the top 15 or so FAs and it has to be one of the weakest FA markets ever.  Of the hitters out there, we definitely could use them (especially Werth in right and Crawford in center, as well as the probable eventual signing of Pena for 1B), but the question is, will they come to Washington?  Why come to the Nats if a perennial playoff contender comes calling with more money and longer guaranteed contracts?  Isn’t that why Dunn just left?

Tom Boswell put out a post expressing some worry about the Nats and this off season, only somewhat alluding to the payroll issue.  And I agree.  Who knew that we’d be seeing a spending spree this off season, after two relatively frugal off-seasons preceding it.  Now that Dunn has left, one has to wonder what the team really should do.

I’m afraid the Nats are stuck frankly.  We have money to spend, and NEED to spend money to show some good will towards a fan base that clearly sees the Lerners as incompetent, penny pinching and too cheap to really deserve a $600M baseball team.  But, who are we going to spend this money on?  At this point the best moves seem to be to try to acquire guys via trade ( Greinke or Garza come to mind) but these guys will cost us what few prospects we actually have right now.  Is it worth it to give up 4 upper end guys to acquire 2 years of Greinke’s services?

As much as I hate to say it, I believe the best course right now is to NOT spend money, play out 2011 with what we have (and perhaps a couple of lower end, one-year FAs) and regroup for 2012.  Let our prospects play and get experience, find out if the likes of Espinosa, Desmond, Morse, Morgan, Bernadina, Ramos, Zimmermann, Maya and the rest of the bullpen are really quality guys.  Trade Willingham for more kids. Wait for Strasburg to get healthy. And go firing into NEXT off season with a vengeance.

You may not know who Brad Meyers is now, but he may be pitching for the Nats before you know it. Photo Rodger M. Wood/Wood Sports Photography

The Nats (and every other team) face an 11/19/10 deadline to add Rule5 eligible players that we want to protect to our 40-man roster. (Coincidentally, I maintain a spreadsheet online of key MLB off-season dates and their implications for the team.  The link is also available in the “NatsArm Creations” section on the links section to the right of this page).  NatsInsider.com writer Zuckerman beat me to the punch on this topic (which I wrote up last weekend but forgot to publish), but here’s some similar analysis.

Last year we added three players on 11/19/09 to protect them from the Rule5 Draft:

• Juan Jaime, rhp
• Aaron Thompson, lhp
• Atahualpa Severino, lhp

Nats bloggers/analysts at the time surmised that we were gambling by not putting on guys like Erik Arneson and Hassan Pena or even local favorite Josh Wilkie (especially after he appeared in 2009’s Arizona Fall League), but we only ended up losing Zech Zinicola to the Rule5 draft.  We lost him to Toronto, who had former Nationals executive Dana Brown picking up a player he was familiar with.  Toronto eventually returned Zinicola to the franchise, and he split time between AA and AAA as a middle reliever.

Ironically, two of last year’s Rule5 protection players are now candidates to be dropped OFF the 40-man just one year later because of Injury (in Jaime’s case) or performance (in Thompson’s case).  Severino had a very nice season and should be in the mix to be the LOOGY out of the MLB bullpen in 2011.  In fact, Jaime was taken off the 40-man on 11/18/10 for just this reason.

This year, we definitely face a number of interesting choices on what prospects to protect.  RIP NatsFarmAuthority, but at least Brian Oliver has not taken down the Draft Tracker xls, so we can see who is 2010 Rule5 eligible.   Here’s the list of guys who are at risk with some thoughts in this year’s rule5 draft.   Remember; any team that grabs one of these guys has to keep them on their MLB roster for the entire 2011 season, so the analysis is based on who realistically is in jeopardy of this situation happening with.  These are ordered by the team that they played the majority of 2010 with:

Syracuse

• Whiting, Boomer OF: light hitting speedy center fielder.  A .313 slugging percentage in the weaker AAA league just isn’t going to cut it.  He’s not in the mix for even a backup OF spot in the majors and seems destined to be an organizational guy/career minor leaguer.
• Mandel, Jeff RHP: a decent starter for the Nats over the past couple of seasons who moved to the bullpen in Syracuse towards the end of the season.  He’s not overpowering and not a high K/9 guy, and seems to be now a middle relief guy at best.  Might be worth the protection since he may be a candidate for the 2011 MLB bullpen.
• Wilkie, Josh RHP: I didn’t initially have Wilkie on the list, since we got him as an undrafted FA.  Zuckerman noted that he is rule5 eligible so we’ll discuss.  He has definitely performed for this franchise through the years, and was showcased in the 2010 AFL.  Having just finished his 5th professional season, he has methodically moved up the ranks and spent the entire 2010 in Syracuse.  He’s a middle reliever, a righty, with a good BA against and good peripheral numbers.  Is this worth protection in the draft?  Perhaps.  I feel he could compete for a spot in the MLB bullpen in 2011 but he’s behind several other proven right handed throwers and may be destined for AAA again.

Harrisburg

• Rhinehart, Bill 1B/OF: demoted towards the end of the season to Potomac.  Now a 26-yr old guy who hasn’t been successful above High-A.  Days are numbered.
• Marrero, Chris 1B/OF: our first round draft pick in 2006 and pretty much the sole first baseman prospect in the system.  He played a full season at AA and put up a decent line (.294/.350/.450) with 18 homers as a relatively young player in the league (he turned 22 in July).  I don’t know if he can turn into a producer at the MLB level and a large FA contract to Dunn or Pena could block him even further.  But he merits protection until we find out what we have with him.
• Peacock, Brad RHP: He has been a decently effective starter for the team on multiple levels, this year stepping it up in terms of K/9.  He’s at the Arizona Fall League working out of the bullpen and is putting up similar numbers there that he did in the regular season (good k/9 numbers but an eras in the mid 4s).  Putting Peacock in the AFL surely will increase his visibility, but his mediocre performance there probably guarantees his safety in the Rule5 draft.  No need to protect him, but we hope he turns into a decent middle relief option in a couple years.  11/20/10 Correction; as noted by Kilgore here, Peacock’s Draft-Follow-Evaluate status means he gets one extra year.  We’ll revist in 2011.
• Meyers, Brad RHP.  Meyers was the ace of the 2009 league winning Potomac staff and was named the Nats minor league pitcher of the year.  For 2010 he moved up to Harrisburg and was dominant in his first 6 starts there (1.47 era, 35 ks in 30 innings and under a 1.00 whip) before going down with complications to foot surgery and failing to pitch the rest of the season.  Because of this injury he seems a safe bet NOT to need protection despite his capabilities; no team is going to guarantee a 25-man roster spot all season to a guy who hasn’t pitched since June and who has never appeared above AA.  But we may want to be safer than sorry.
• Solano, Jhonatan C: another who I didn’t initially have on this list, the Nats got him as an undrafted FA in 2006 and he is rule5 eligible.  While you never like to lose catching depth out of your system, suddenly the Nats are swimming in it.  We have 4 catchers on the 40-man right now, and that’s two too many for the MLB roster as it is.  We are probably non-tendering Nieves at some point but that means one of Flores or Ramos is starting in AAA.  Derek Norris is definitely moving up to Harrisburg for 2011, so that means Solano is designed to be a backup either way.  He’s not going to get picked up in a rule5 draft, so we can leave him unprotected.

Potomac, Hagerstown or Vermont.  It is really difficult to think that any player at A-ball or below is seriously a candidate to be taken in the Rule5 draft, but we’ll zip through the candidates.

• Alaniz, Adrian RHP: put up pretty good numbers at Potomac after losing out in a rotational numbers game in spring training.  Has now spent parts of 3 straight seasons in Harrisburg but cannot stick.  He’s getting too old for A ball though and might need to show something out of spring to keep a pitching job.
• Phillabaum, Justin RHP: he’s a later-innings/8th inning guy who got hit very hard this year in Potomac.
• Beno, Martin RHP: no progress for the righty, having played the entire 2009 and 2010 seasons in high-A.
• Gibson, Glenn RHP: traded to the Rays to obtain Elijah Dukes and then released.  I guess the Nats picked him back up because they liked him enough to draft him in the first place.  Assigned to Hagerstown, demoted to Vermont after putting up an 8+ ERA.  Not a prospect.
• Erb, Shane RHP: he posted a 6.19 era at low-A this year, the LOWEST ERA he’s had in 3 years in the system.  Days are numbered in the organization.
• King, Stephen 3B: struggled between short and low A this year, and possibly still held in contempt by the organization for a 50-game drug suspension that cost him the early part of the year.  May be out of a job soon.
• Lyons, Dan, 3B: Batted .223 between low-A and high-A as a 26 year old.  Clearly too old for either level and may be outright released.

Conclusions:

If I were the Nats i’d protect Mandel, Marrero and Meyers to be safe.  With the Jaime move that would put us exactly at 40/40 on the 40-man.   At that point we possibly consider adding in Peacock or Wilkie but probably not: if one or the other of these two needed to go on, we have a few guys who could be dumped off the 40-man and probably would clear waivers.

11/20/10 update: The Nats chose to protect Marrero, Adam Carr and Cole Kimball.  In retrospect, I suppose I should have taken guys like Carr and Kimball into account.  They first became rule5 eligible last year and were not protected, and were not selected.  In the year since both have become valuable power arms out of the bullpen and are leading candidates to compete with and/or replace the likes of Batista, Peralta and Walker in the 2011 bullpen.  Next year 🙂

Is this the Nat's 2011 Opening Day Starter? (Photo deadspin.com)

By now we’ve all seen predictions of free agents in the off season.  Here’s some from Tim Dierkes, here’s the rest of the MLB trade rumors writers, here’s some by Jon Heyman, and here’s a bunch by the HardBall Times guys.   By various accounts the Nats are going to:

• Let Adam Dunn walk.
• Sign Carlos Pena to take his place
• Roll the dice on Brandon Webb
• Chase after but not obtain Cliff Lee
• Eventually sign Javier Vazquez (I really hope not)
• Maybe get Jorge de la Rosa (I hope not)
• Possibly get JJ Putz as a closer placeholder/trade bait version of Matt Capps

Note: I’ve also seen comments here and there that we’d be interested in Hisanori Takahashi, a 35yr old utility guy in the Mets bullpen or taking Kosuke Fukudome off the Cub’s hands.  The former isn’t a FA and is arbitration eligible but the Mets reportedly are non-tendering him.  The latter could be mildly intriguing; he’s a decent hitter, a decent fielder who has played center in the past.  But it doesn’t necessarily improve over a Morse/Bernadina combo.  Of course, i’m also hearing about possible trades for Zack Greinke (as covered in this blog posting) or Matt Garza.  I’d love to have either guy of course, but don’t want to give up the farm for either guy.  And now that Dan Uggla has indicated that he wants out of Florida (and honestly, given the cheap-skate way the franchise is run and the way the players are run out of town as soon as they get too expensive, who wouldn’t?), there’s all sorts of rumors about his possible destination … and the Nats are in the thick of it.

(Side note: do you start to think that the Nats are acting a little out of character this off season?  They’re attached to marquee free agents, they’re listed as “interested parties” on half the free agents out there, and they’re putting their name in the hat for all the big names on the trading block.  Is this all for real or is this severe over-compensation for the Lerner’s spending the past 5 years of acting like MLB paupers?)

So, our 2011 rotation could look like this:

1. Livan Hernandez
2. Brandon Webb
3. John Lannan
4. Javier Vazquez
5. Jordan Zimmermann

Leaving the likes of Maya, Detwiler, injury disappointment Wang and $15M bust Jason Marquis on the sidelines (to say nothing of the next tier of guys like Stammen, Atilano, Martis, Mock and Chico looking at bullpen spots or AAA).  I can’t see Sammy Solis making a Mike Leake-esque debut at the MLB level having never pitched a day in the minors, especially after his less-than-dominant AFL numbers.

The POTENTIAL of this rotation is great.  Webb’s a former Cy Young winner, Vazquez an innings eater who garnered Cy Young votes in 2009 in Atlanta.  Lannan (outside of the first half of last year) is a difficult lefty who gets a ton of ground balls and pitches at a 110 era+ level, Livan is a revalation and Zimmermann is a Matt Cain replica who could be just as dominant with mid 90s possible shutdown stuff.  The reality could be just as bad: Livan is a soft tossing righty who depends on guile and is regularly shelled, Webb hasn’t pitched in 2 years, Vazquez has lost his fastball, Zimmermann is promising but has never produced, and Lannan (our Ace) is a #4 pitcher on a good staff.  Nothing like glass is half empty/glass is half full analysis.

Our non-pitching/out-field lineup looks pretty set already for the 2011 season.

1. (L) Nyjer Morgan – CF
2. (R) Ian Desmond – 2b (yes I think he and Espinosa need to switch)
3. (R) Ryan Zimmerman – 3b
4. (L) Carlos Pena – 1b (he has to bat cleanup to go R-L-R in the heart of the order)
5. (R) Josh Willingham – LF
6. (L) Roger Bernadina/(R) Michael Morse platoon in RF
7. (R) Ivan Rodriguez – C
8. (S) Danny Espinosa – SS
9. Pitcher

I can live with that.  Frankly i’d like to see another outfielder acquisition.  I liked Bernadina and Morse’s production this year but they’re not game changers.  You really need to use your power positions on the field (first and third base, right field, left field) to hold your big boppers, and we need more production out of the RF spot.  Jayson Werth would really fit in nicely there wouldn’t he?  I guess we wait til 2012 and the introduction of Bryce Harper to fill that spot.

I also think we need to do something in center/leadoff.  Morgan’s troubles towards the end of last season are well documented, but his production wasn’t earning him playing time.  If the Red Sox acquire Carl Crawford, that might make Jacoby Ellsbury available.  His 2010 was a wash but he’d be the perfect center fielder/leadoff guy.  2009 stats: 70sbs, .301 BA and a .355 obp.

Willingham has mentioned that he would be willing to play First, and I think that’d be a great alternative if we can’t get any of the free agent 1st basement to come here.  We could go with an outfield of Bernadina, Morgan and Morse with Willingham at 1st base, giving us a decently good lineup both offensively and defensively.

It looks to be a really interesting offseason for the Nats.