Nationals Arm Race

Rizzo; go get this guy! Photo Bosoxinjection.com

The Red Sox’s signing of Carl Crawford to a 7yr, $142M contract (a contract undoubtedly pushed skyward by the Nats Jayson Werth deal a few days earlier)  makes for a rather imposing possible Red Sox Lineup in 2011.  Here’s a probable opening day lineup:

1. 2B Dustin Pedroia (R)
2. LF Carl Crawford (L)
3. 1B Adrian Gonzalez (L)
4. 3B Kevin Youkilis (R)
5. DH David Ortiz (L)
6. RF J.D. Drew (L)
7. SS Marco Scutaro (R)
8. C Jarrod Saltalamacchia (S)
9. CF Jacoby Ellsbury (L)

Now, one thing is immediately apparent with this lineup.  They are incredibly lefty-heavy through the heart of their order.  And in a division with CC Sabathia, probably Andy Pettitte and potentially Cliff Lee on their main competitor, this could be rather bad during key divisional games.

Clearly the Red Sox need to get some righty help in the heart of their lineup.  Enter Josh Willingham.

Trade Proposal: The Nats trade Willingham and a decent prospect (perhaps one of our AA pitchers) to the Red Sox for Jacoby Ellsbury.  Crawford slides over to center for Boston, Willingham plays left, and you have Mike Cameron as your late inning defensive replacement outfielder.

Ellsbury is exactly what the Nats need; leadoff center fielder who shows more promise and more self control than our current leadoff/CF Nyjer Morgan.  He lost most of 2010 to injury but in 2009 lead the league in stolen bases and would give us good defense in center per his uzr/150 rankings.  He’s cost contained (not yet arbitration eligible) and we’d control him for at least 3 more years.

Willingham’s approach at the plate fits the Sabremetric-thinking Red Sox; he has a high OBP, sees a lot of pitches and puts up a good OPS when healthy.  He is defensively challenged but left field at Fenway might be the best place in all of baseball to “hide” a crummy defender.  He’d give the Red Sox a righty presence in the middle of the lineup and replace a 9th place hitter with a middle of the order hitter.  He’s in the last year of arbitration but still projects to be relatively cheap (by Boston’s standards), probably earning around $6M/year.  He clearly wants to set down roots and could be a nice 3 or 4-year signing in Boston.

With Willingham, here’s a Potential Boston lineup:

1. 2B Dustin Pedroia (R)
2. CF Carl Crawford (L)
3. 3B Kevin Youkilis (R)
4. 1B Adrian Gonzalez (L)
5. LF Josh Willingham (R)
6. DH David Ortiz (L)
7. RF J.D. Drew (L)
8. SS Marco Scutaro (R)
9. C Jarrod Saltalamacchia (S)

Now they go R-L alternatively for the first 6 hitters, and if Saltamacchia catches or if Varitek gets some ABs they both switch hit and could slot above Scutaro to give even more flexibility.

Who says no first?

I'd be smoking a cigar too, if I was Jayson Werth tonight. Photo: fanshots.com

I avoided the obvious pun in the title, but clearly the 7yr $126M dollar deal we just signed with Jayson Werth is going to stir some serious blog “ink” over the next couple days.  In fact, reading some quick twitter comments from the leading reporters at the winter meetings seem to indicate that this deal has completely “shaken up” the meetings, that other teams are stunned, that rival execs are “pissed” and that this could be a game changer contract in the league.

The good:

– Jayson Werth’s numbers over the past few years are definitely strong.  He finished up last year with a 145 OPS+ figure, putting him 5th in the NL.

– Despite having clearly better numbers in his walk year, he has been a rather consistent performer when looking at his WAR figures over the past few years.  5.1, 4.9 and 5.0 over the past three seasons.  Consistent.

– He plays RF, where we’re desperately in need of a slugger.  He can also play center and left (though his UZR/150 numbers for center are god-awful).  His LF defensive value is quite good though.

– Fangraphs.com just posted analysis that essentially validates his salary as compared to the typical value of WAR on the FA market, and says that it isn’t really that bad of a contract.  For now any way; we’ll see what happens as he ages and if/when he tails off.

The immediate bad:

– 7 years guaranteed for a guy who just turned 31.  $18M (average contract value) per year for a guy in his age 37 and 38 years.  Scary.  This contract immediately becomes more or less untradable.

– We commit 7 years to a right fielder, when we have the best hitting prospect (and dedicated right fielder) in baseball in Bryce Harper slated to arrive mid-way through the contract.  I’ll guess Werth moves to LF naturally.

– Wouldn’t we have rather committed 56M on Adam Dunn instead of more than twice that for a lesser hitter?

– Intangibles: we now have an $18M/year player on the books, which is more than twice the Face of the Franchise’s 2011 number.  Problematic in the club house?  Or will the young leader recognize that his time to “get paid” is coming and that Werth’s contract is indicative of his body of work over the past few years?

– We lose a draft pick; but because our 1st rounder is protected we’ll only lose our 2nd round pick.  However, we picked up the White Sox’s pick in the Dunn deal so we still have essentially 3 first rounders in 2011’s deep draft.

I’ll say this; the addition of Werth plus the eventual addition of a first baseman (Carlos Pena or possibly Adam LaRoche) greatly greatly improves this lineup.  We’re now looking at something like this:

1. (L) Morgan CF
2. (R) Desmond SS/2b
3. (R) Zimmerman 3b
4. (L) Pena 1b
5. (R) Werth rf
6. (R) Willingham LF
7. (S) Espinosa 2nd/ss
8. (R) Pudge C
9. pitcher

A little right-handed heavy right now.  Another potential future move could be to trade Willingham for a starter and put lefty-hitting Bernadina in left.  That’d be a nice balance of R-L-R-L in the heart of the order.  This move immediately marginalizes both Bernadina and Morse though; perhaps we’ll see them moved as part of a deal to get someone like Matt Garza.

Conclusion: The Nationals have proven several times in the past two offseasons that they need to overpay to get FAs to come here.  We offered Teixeira more money than New York, and reportedly we offered De La Rosa more money than he took to return to Colorado.  I think this is the Nationals essentially “buying” their way into the discussions for free agents, now and in the future.  It’s definitely a hitter we needed, and hopefully by the time his contract reaches albatross level it won’t matter because we’ll be winning and he’ll be a part of it.

Nats fans have seen Adam Dunn do this for the last time. Photo: seasonticketdc.com

Several years ago, I began a rant about the Nats payroll levels vis-a-vis our market size that essentially continues through to today.  Washington DC as a market is clearly a large market:

• We are 7th in total population (when measured by Metropolitan Statistical Areas); just behind Miami/Ft. Lauderdale and Dallas and just ahead of  Houston and Detroit.
• We are 9th in terms of DMA TV households (just behind Atlanta/Boston and just ahead of Houston and Detroit again).

And yet, in 2010 we had the 23rd ranked payroll of the 30 teams, spending just $66M in salary (2010 opening day number).  Meanwhile the teams located in comparable cities spent much much more.  Houston had a $92m payroll, Detroit $122M, Atlanta $84M.  Miami and Boston are outliers for separate and obvious reasons (Boston essentially services the entire NE area while the Florida Marlins owners are the worst examples of owners taking advantage of the revenue sharing system in the league).

According to my estimates (available here or via the link in the Nats Creations section to the right), the Nats (as of publication) have $29M committed for 2011, and likely will have a payroll that is around $46.5M once all arbitration cases are settled.  Notice this is almost exactly $20M less than in 2010 (Dunn at $12M and Guzman at $8M neatly equal the delta).

Clearly, the Nats need to be increasing payroll.  I’m pretty sure this is one of the reasons Kasten left the team frankly; I don’t think he saw eye to eye with the Lerners in terms of payroll outlay.  Certainly not in terms of the 2009 opening day roster team, which was an abomination of a roster and successfully gutted the season ticket base and fan satisfaction leading into the new stadium.

BUT, and this is a large But, we should not just arbitrarily spend money just to spend it.  So we have a conundrum.  With Vazquez and De La Rosa off the market, the FA pitcher market is, as Jayson Stark put it, a disaster area.  With the exception of an experimental flyer on Webb, I wouldn’t want a single guy left.  Jon Heyman ranked the top 15 or so FAs and it has to be one of the weakest FA markets ever.  Of the hitters out there, we definitely could use them (especially Werth in right and Crawford in center, as well as the probable eventual signing of Pena for 1B), but the question is, will they come to Washington?  Why come to the Nats if a perennial playoff contender comes calling with more money and longer guaranteed contracts?  Isn’t that why Dunn just left?

Tom Boswell put out a post expressing some worry about the Nats and this off season, only somewhat alluding to the payroll issue.  And I agree.  Who knew that we’d be seeing a spending spree this off season, after two relatively frugal off-seasons preceding it.  Now that Dunn has left, one has to wonder what the team really should do.

I’m afraid the Nats are stuck frankly.  We have money to spend, and NEED to spend money to show some good will towards a fan base that clearly sees the Lerners as incompetent, penny pinching and too cheap to really deserve a $600M baseball team.  But, who are we going to spend this money on?  At this point the best moves seem to be to try to acquire guys via trade ( Greinke or Garza come to mind) but these guys will cost us what few prospects we actually have right now.  Is it worth it to give up 4 upper end guys to acquire 2 years of Greinke’s services?

As much as I hate to say it, I believe the best course right now is to NOT spend money, play out 2011 with what we have (and perhaps a couple of lower end, one-year FAs) and regroup for 2012.  Let our prospects play and get experience, find out if the likes of Espinosa, Desmond, Morse, Morgan, Bernadina, Ramos, Zimmermann, Maya and the rest of the bullpen are really quality guys.  Trade Willingham for more kids. Wait for Strasburg to get healthy. And go firing into NEXT off season with a vengeance.

You may not know who Brad Meyers is now, but he may be pitching for the Nats before you know it. Photo Rodger M. Wood/Wood Sports Photography

The Nats (and every other team) face an 11/19/10 deadline to add Rule5 eligible players that we want to protect to our 40-man roster. (Coincidentally, I maintain a spreadsheet online of key MLB off-season dates and their implications for the team.  The link is also available in the “NatsArm Creations” section on the links section to the right of this page).  NatsInsider.com writer Zuckerman beat me to the punch on this topic (which I wrote up last weekend but forgot to publish), but here’s some similar analysis.

Last year we added three players on 11/19/09 to protect them from the Rule5 Draft:

• Juan Jaime, rhp
• Aaron Thompson, lhp
• Atahualpa Severino, lhp

Nats bloggers/analysts at the time surmised that we were gambling by not putting on guys like Erik Arneson and Hassan Pena or even local favorite Josh Wilkie (especially after he appeared in 2009’s Arizona Fall League), but we only ended up losing Zech Zinicola to the Rule5 draft.  We lost him to Toronto, who had former Nationals executive Dana Brown picking up a player he was familiar with.  Toronto eventually returned Zinicola to the franchise, and he split time between AA and AAA as a middle reliever.

Ironically, two of last year’s Rule5 protection players are now candidates to be dropped OFF the 40-man just one year later because of Injury (in Jaime’s case) or performance (in Thompson’s case).  Severino had a very nice season and should be in the mix to be the LOOGY out of the MLB bullpen in 2011.  In fact, Jaime was taken off the 40-man on 11/18/10 for just this reason.

This year, we definitely face a number of interesting choices on what prospects to protect.  RIP NatsFarmAuthority, but at least Brian Oliver has not taken down the Draft Tracker xls, so we can see who is 2010 Rule5 eligible.   Here’s the list of guys who are at risk with some thoughts in this year’s rule5 draft.   Remember; any team that grabs one of these guys has to keep them on their MLB roster for the entire 2011 season, so the analysis is based on who realistically is in jeopardy of this situation happening with.  These are ordered by the team that they played the majority of 2010 with:

Syracuse

• Whiting, Boomer OF: light hitting speedy center fielder.  A .313 slugging percentage in the weaker AAA league just isn’t going to cut it.  He’s not in the mix for even a backup OF spot in the majors and seems destined to be an organizational guy/career minor leaguer.
• Mandel, Jeff RHP: a decent starter for the Nats over the past couple of seasons who moved to the bullpen in Syracuse towards the end of the season.  He’s not overpowering and not a high K/9 guy, and seems to be now a middle relief guy at best.  Might be worth the protection since he may be a candidate for the 2011 MLB bullpen.
• Wilkie, Josh RHP: I didn’t initially have Wilkie on the list, since we got him as an undrafted FA.  Zuckerman noted that he is rule5 eligible so we’ll discuss.  He has definitely performed for this franchise through the years, and was showcased in the 2010 AFL.  Having just finished his 5th professional season, he has methodically moved up the ranks and spent the entire 2010 in Syracuse.  He’s a middle reliever, a righty, with a good BA against and good peripheral numbers.  Is this worth protection in the draft?  Perhaps.  I feel he could compete for a spot in the MLB bullpen in 2011 but he’s behind several other proven right handed throwers and may be destined for AAA again.

Harrisburg

• Rhinehart, Bill 1B/OF: demoted towards the end of the season to Potomac.  Now a 26-yr old guy who hasn’t been successful above High-A.  Days are numbered.
• Marrero, Chris 1B/OF: our first round draft pick in 2006 and pretty much the sole first baseman prospect in the system.  He played a full season at AA and put up a decent line (.294/.350/.450) with 18 homers as a relatively young player in the league (he turned 22 in July).  I don’t know if he can turn into a producer at the MLB level and a large FA contract to Dunn or Pena could block him even further.  But he merits protection until we find out what we have with him.
• Peacock, Brad RHP: He has been a decently effective starter for the team on multiple levels, this year stepping it up in terms of K/9.  He’s at the Arizona Fall League working out of the bullpen and is putting up similar numbers there that he did in the regular season (good k/9 numbers but an eras in the mid 4s).  Putting Peacock in the AFL surely will increase his visibility, but his mediocre performance there probably guarantees his safety in the Rule5 draft.  No need to protect him, but we hope he turns into a decent middle relief option in a couple years.  11/20/10 Correction; as noted by Kilgore here, Peacock’s Draft-Follow-Evaluate status means he gets one extra year.  We’ll revist in 2011.
• Meyers, Brad RHP.  Meyers was the ace of the 2009 league winning Potomac staff and was named the Nats minor league pitcher of the year.  For 2010 he moved up to Harrisburg and was dominant in his first 6 starts there (1.47 era, 35 ks in 30 innings and under a 1.00 whip) before going down with complications to foot surgery and failing to pitch the rest of the season.  Because of this injury he seems a safe bet NOT to need protection despite his capabilities; no team is going to guarantee a 25-man roster spot all season to a guy who hasn’t pitched since June and who has never appeared above AA.  But we may want to be safer than sorry.
• Solano, Jhonatan C: another who I didn’t initially have on this list, the Nats got him as an undrafted FA in 2006 and he is rule5 eligible.  While you never like to lose catching depth out of your system, suddenly the Nats are swimming in it.  We have 4 catchers on the 40-man right now, and that’s two too many for the MLB roster as it is.  We are probably non-tendering Nieves at some point but that means one of Flores or Ramos is starting in AAA.  Derek Norris is definitely moving up to Harrisburg for 2011, so that means Solano is designed to be a backup either way.  He’s not going to get picked up in a rule5 draft, so we can leave him unprotected.

Potomac, Hagerstown or Vermont.  It is really difficult to think that any player at A-ball or below is seriously a candidate to be taken in the Rule5 draft, but we’ll zip through the candidates.

• Alaniz, Adrian RHP: put up pretty good numbers at Potomac after losing out in a rotational numbers game in spring training.  Has now spent parts of 3 straight seasons in Harrisburg but cannot stick.  He’s getting too old for A ball though and might need to show something out of spring to keep a pitching job.
• Phillabaum, Justin RHP: he’s a later-innings/8th inning guy who got hit very hard this year in Potomac.
• Beno, Martin RHP: no progress for the righty, having played the entire 2009 and 2010 seasons in high-A.
• Gibson, Glenn RHP: traded to the Rays to obtain Elijah Dukes and then released.  I guess the Nats picked him back up because they liked him enough to draft him in the first place.  Assigned to Hagerstown, demoted to Vermont after putting up an 8+ ERA.  Not a prospect.
• Erb, Shane RHP: he posted a 6.19 era at low-A this year, the LOWEST ERA he’s had in 3 years in the system.  Days are numbered in the organization.
• King, Stephen 3B: struggled between short and low A this year, and possibly still held in contempt by the organization for a 50-game drug suspension that cost him the early part of the year.  May be out of a job soon.
• Lyons, Dan, 3B: Batted .223 between low-A and high-A as a 26 year old.  Clearly too old for either level and may be outright released.

Conclusions:

If I were the Nats i’d protect Mandel, Marrero and Meyers to be safe.  With the Jaime move that would put us exactly at 40/40 on the 40-man.   At that point we possibly consider adding in Peacock or Wilkie but probably not: if one or the other of these two needed to go on, we have a few guys who could be dumped off the 40-man and probably would clear waivers.

11/20/10 update: The Nats chose to protect Marrero, Adam Carr and Cole Kimball.  In retrospect, I suppose I should have taken guys like Carr and Kimball into account.  They first became rule5 eligible last year and were not protected, and were not selected.  In the year since both have become valuable power arms out of the bullpen and are leading candidates to compete with and/or replace the likes of Batista, Peralta and Walker in the 2011 bullpen.  Next year 🙂

Is this the Nat's 2011 Opening Day Starter? (Photo deadspin.com)

By now we’ve all seen predictions of free agents in the off season.  Here’s some from Tim Dierkes, here’s the rest of the MLB trade rumors writers, here’s some by Jon Heyman, and here’s a bunch by the HardBall Times guys.   By various accounts the Nats are going to:

• Let Adam Dunn walk.
• Sign Carlos Pena to take his place
• Roll the dice on Brandon Webb
• Chase after but not obtain Cliff Lee
• Eventually sign Javier Vazquez (I really hope not)
• Maybe get Jorge de la Rosa (I hope not)
• Possibly get JJ Putz as a closer placeholder/trade bait version of Matt Capps

Note: I’ve also seen comments here and there that we’d be interested in Hisanori Takahashi, a 35yr old utility guy in the Mets bullpen or taking Kosuke Fukudome off the Cub’s hands.  The former isn’t a FA and is arbitration eligible but the Mets reportedly are non-tendering him.  The latter could be mildly intriguing; he’s a decent hitter, a decent fielder who has played center in the past.  But it doesn’t necessarily improve over a Morse/Bernadina combo.  Of course, i’m also hearing about possible trades for Zack Greinke (as covered in this blog posting) or Matt Garza.  I’d love to have either guy of course, but don’t want to give up the farm for either guy.  And now that Dan Uggla has indicated that he wants out of Florida (and honestly, given the cheap-skate way the franchise is run and the way the players are run out of town as soon as they get too expensive, who wouldn’t?), there’s all sorts of rumors about his possible destination … and the Nats are in the thick of it.

(Side note: do you start to think that the Nats are acting a little out of character this off season?  They’re attached to marquee free agents, they’re listed as “interested parties” on half the free agents out there, and they’re putting their name in the hat for all the big names on the trading block.  Is this all for real or is this severe over-compensation for the Lerner’s spending the past 5 years of acting like MLB paupers?)

So, our 2011 rotation could look like this:

1. Livan Hernandez
2. Brandon Webb
3. John Lannan
4. Javier Vazquez
5. Jordan Zimmermann

Leaving the likes of Maya, Detwiler, injury disappointment Wang and $15M bust Jason Marquis on the sidelines (to say nothing of the next tier of guys like Stammen, Atilano, Martis, Mock and Chico looking at bullpen spots or AAA).  I can’t see Sammy Solis making a Mike Leake-esque debut at the MLB level having never pitched a day in the minors, especially after his less-than-dominant AFL numbers.

The POTENTIAL of this rotation is great.  Webb’s a former Cy Young winner, Vazquez an innings eater who garnered Cy Young votes in 2009 in Atlanta.  Lannan (outside of the first half of last year) is a difficult lefty who gets a ton of ground balls and pitches at a 110 era+ level, Livan is a revalation and Zimmermann is a Matt Cain replica who could be just as dominant with mid 90s possible shutdown stuff.  The reality could be just as bad: Livan is a soft tossing righty who depends on guile and is regularly shelled, Webb hasn’t pitched in 2 years, Vazquez has lost his fastball, Zimmermann is promising but has never produced, and Lannan (our Ace) is a #4 pitcher on a good staff.  Nothing like glass is half empty/glass is half full analysis.

Our non-pitching/out-field lineup looks pretty set already for the 2011 season.

1. (L) Nyjer Morgan – CF
2. (R) Ian Desmond – 2b (yes I think he and Espinosa need to switch)
3. (R) Ryan Zimmerman – 3b
4. (L) Carlos Pena – 1b (he has to bat cleanup to go R-L-R in the heart of the order)
5. (R) Josh Willingham – LF
6. (L) Roger Bernadina/(R) Michael Morse platoon in RF
7. (R) Ivan Rodriguez – C
8. (S) Danny Espinosa – SS
9. Pitcher

I can live with that.  Frankly i’d like to see another outfielder acquisition.  I liked Bernadina and Morse’s production this year but they’re not game changers.  You really need to use your power positions on the field (first and third base, right field, left field) to hold your big boppers, and we need more production out of the RF spot.  Jayson Werth would really fit in nicely there wouldn’t he?  I guess we wait til 2012 and the introduction of Bryce Harper to fill that spot.

I also think we need to do something in center/leadoff.  Morgan’s troubles towards the end of last season are well documented, but his production wasn’t earning him playing time.  If the Red Sox acquire Carl Crawford, that might make Jacoby Ellsbury available.  His 2010 was a wash but he’d be the perfect center fielder/leadoff guy.  2009 stats: 70sbs, .301 BA and a .355 obp.

Willingham has mentioned that he would be willing to play First, and I think that’d be a great alternative if we can’t get any of the free agent 1st basement to come here.  We could go with an outfield of Bernadina, Morgan and Morse with Willingham at 1st base, giving us a decently good lineup both offensively and defensively.

It looks to be a really interesting offseason for the Nats.

Photo by Doug Benc/Getty Images North America

As posted by other bloggers today, October 28th 2010, (especially in this post here on the Nationals Enquirer which rather eloquently titles their posting with the obvious consequence of Dunn’s Elias rating), the Nats dodged a huge bullet and will be fully compensated if Adam Dunn decides to leave via free agency (that is well, unless they do the unthinkable and fail to offer him Arbitration).  The official Elias Rankings came out and previous estimates on Dunn were slightly low (resulting in panicked posts by yours truly and others about his being a type B free agent and thus making our entire mis-handling of the contract extension even more egregiously bad).

Now, based on the rules of compensation (as explained in the Kilgore’s Nats Journal blog posting today), the first 18 picks of the 2011 draft are protected (usually first 15 but there’s a few compensation picks in there from failed draft picks in 2010).  So, IF Dunn is leaving (and the prevaling opinion seems to lean that way despite all realistic arguments against it…), what the Nats now root for is a team in the “bottom” half of the first round to be the signing team.  If this happens, we’ll get their 1st rounder AND a supplemental pick.  Otherwise we’re looking at the supplemental pick plus the signing team’s 2nd rounder.  That’s not nearly as nice of a haul frankly.

The first round draft order for 2011 goes like this, thanks to mlbtraderumors.com

Here’s the thing though; if Dunn is going to leave, then he needs to go to a team that:

a) Needs a first baseman and

b) Is REALISTICALLY in the market for Free Agents in general, and

c) Makes more sense for him to leave the Nationals for.  As in, why would he go from one last place team to another, unless the Nats insultingly refuse to offer him anything more than a 2yr deal.

Here’s a quick rundown on NL teams and their 1st basemen situation.  We focus first on the NL because of Dunn’s repeated statements that he’s not interested in becoming a full time DH.

• Nym: Ike Davis: an up and coming prospect, had a nice 2010.
• Phi: Ryan Howard: long term contract, anchor of the franchise.
• Fla: Gaby Sanchez: could be upgraded but it doesn’t matter, they’re not FA buyers.  Never are.
• Atl: Derrick Lee, who is a FA.  Troy Glaus also a FA but was awful this year. Could be a buyer, looking for a slugger to help them make the leap from WC to divisional champ.  Or they could depend on up and coming prospect Freddie Freeman.  Not listed as players in any of the early Free Agency predictions though.

• Stl: Albert Pujols; franchise player, obviously.
• Mil: Prince Fielder.  Milwaukee’s franchise player until his eventual trade/FA saga next season.
• Cin: Joey Votto; MVP candidate and not yet even to arbitration.  Best bargain in baseball right now.
• Chi: it was Derrick Lee til they traded him to Atlanta.  Possible FA buyers.  See below.
• Hou: it was Lance Berkman til they traded him.  But are they FA buyers?  I don’t think so.
• Pit: Garrett Jones: doesn’t matter, they’re not FA buyers; they’re the reason baseball has revenue sharing.

• Lad: James Loney: cost contained and home grown.  plus no FA $$ spent until ownership divorce settled.  Some reports seen saying they’ll trade Loney and go after Dunn, but sounds doubtful.
• Sdp: Adrian Gonzalez; San Diego’s marquee player.
• Sfg: Aubrey Huff: a FA and SF desperately needs hitters.  BUT Huff may have earned an extension based on his post season exploits both at bat and in the field where he’s a plus defender.  And the Giants (by virtue of a number of awful contracts) are payroll bound for the next few years.  Not major shoppers.
• Col: Todd Helton; signed through 2011, which will be the last of his 9 year contract.  His production is declining but they’ll want to stay flexible enough to go after the bumper 2011 1st basemen FA crop of Fielder, Gonzalez, and Pujols.  Won’t go after Dunn but will seek a 1-year FA.
• Ari: Adam LaRoche, who is a FA, but Arizona’s new GM values defense and doesn’t like Dunn.  Plus, they do have a decent 1B prospect in Brandon Allen.  Not buyers.

So, if he goes anywhere in the NL I think it could be either Atlanta, Chicago or (maybe) San Francisco.  Chicago already has some serious payroll issues and an underperforming team but has a ton of cash.  SF may not have the payroll flexibility to buy Dunn despite really needing him.  Atlanta only has $60M committed next year and has a bunch of arbitration cases … but they’ve spent over $100m on payroll as recently as 2 years ago and may expand it out again.

Adding in AL teams, looking at 1B solutions (I can’t see him signing up for a team that will ONLY DH him, so we have to look at teams where he splits time between 1B and DH).

• Bos: Kevin Youklis/Victor Martinez; but have a serious need for a DH if they don’t resign David Ortiz.  Interesting off season for Boston.  If they cut loose the legendary Ortiz, I can see them letting Beltre go, putting Youklis at 3rd, and then going after Dunn and selling him on splitting time between 1st and DHing when Victor Martinez needs a blow.  That’s an awful lot of “ifs” to work out though.  Update: The RedSox exercised the 2011 option on Ortiz, presumably removing them from the equation.
• Nyy: Mark Teixeira.  Plus, don’t the 2011 yankees have like 8 guys who might need to DH periodically?  My favorite subplot of the next few years is how the Yankees handle their aging core of players.  Jeter, A-Rod, Rivera, Posada, Pettitte and Rivera are all on the wrong side of 34, all make a ton of money and all need a position to play.  Where exactly does Jeter go when he cannot play SS anymore?
• Tam: Carlos Pena, a FA who will be allowed to walk.  However, Tampa won’t buy Dunn b/c they’re in massive payroll reduction mode.  I’m sure they’ve got some uber hitting prospect who will contribute an OPS+ of 140 next year.  They do have their 2010 minor league player of the year Dan Johnson, who hit THIRTY homers in AAA in just 98 games but he hasn’t exactly torn it up in his MLB experiences.
• Tor: Lyle Overbay, a FA who is 34.  Can’t see Toronto buying an aging FA w/ new GM in town who is focused on building the team the right way.
• Bal: Ty Wiggington: another aging mediocre FA.  Dunn would be *perfect* in Baltimore and at Camden, but are Orioles buyers?

• Det: Miguel Cabrera; locked in and coming off a great year.  However, they have nearly $60M coming off the books and may be looking for someone to bash and protect Cabrera.  Would mean that Dunn becomes a full time DH.
• Cws: Paul Konerko, a FA coming off a career year.  But, the consensus seems to be that the CWS won’t pursue Konerko (he’s 34 and clearly should start declining).  A dark horse candidate for Dunn.
• Min: Justin Morneau; franchise player, long term contract.
• Kc: Billy Butler; player of the future.
• Cle: Matt LaPorta, the future of this team right now and bounty from the CC Sabathia trade.

• Laa: Kendrys Morales; a key hitter whose injury helped derail their 2010 season.
• Oak: Daric Barton: up and coming hitter, only 24 but they’d never buy Dunn unless it was to flip him later.
• Sea: Russell Branyon/Casey Kotchman but they have Justin Smoak coming up (bounty for Cliff Lee).
• Tex: Had a rotating door post Smoak trade between castoff Cantu and rookie Chris Davis, but their 2009 minor league player of the year Mitch Moreland seems to have taken hold of the position.  9 homers in 47 games down the stretch plus he has come up huge in the post season.  Not buyers.  No wonder they were OK with letting Smoak go.

There’s many more AL options.  In various scenarios he could make sense for 5 or 6 AL teams.  At least Chicago, Baltimore, Boston, or Toronto.  Tampa if they weren’t going cheap.

My personal odds/guesses in order on where Dunn may go:

1. Chicago Cubs: makes the most sense and are already politicking for him.  However, rumors on the street at the start of free agency seem to indicate that the Cubs are standing pat.  They have new ownership in 2010 and a bunch of bad contracts.  After such an awful season how can the owners be compelled to throw good money after bad?
2. Chicago White Sox: instead of the North Side, he moves to the south side.  Some of the Foxsports.com team belives he’s heading here.  The White Sox won 88 games last year and may be looking to upgrade (and get younger) from Konerko.  Yes its AL, but he’d clearly be the first baseman.
3. Re-signs w/ the Nats; less likely since Rizzo can’t see the forest (40 home runs) for the trees (Dunn’s defensive liabilities).  And, he has to be insulted by the hemming and hawing that went on all season (not to mention the constant trade rumors, which clearly irritated him as the summer progressed).  There has been a 3-year deal on the table since at least August but Dunn has resisted.

Lesser possibilities but which could arise.

4. Atlanta: if the braves don’t trust prospect Freeman, they make perfect sense and Dunn would be walking into a playoff team ready to take the next step.
5. Houston; a return home  … but I don’t think they’re really shopping.
6. Detroit: A couple of Fox sportswriters seem to think he’s heading to Detroit.  If he does, its clearly a signal of defeat on his part because he’d immediately be a full time DH.
7. New York Yankees.  The Yankees do have a slight need for a DH, but it would take convincing Dunn to completely give up playing in the field as the Yankees are already stacked with future DHs.
8. Baltimore; Dunn may reach 700 career homers if playing in Camden Yards for the next 5 years with its short porch.  But, as mentioned before, if he decides to leave Washington (an up and coming franchise that could actually contend by the time his contract ends), why would he go to a place like Baltimore?  Baltimore is the 5th best team in a division that shows no signs of ever having an off year.  In fact, why would ANY marquee free agent ever go to Baltimore?
9. Oakland: listed by Ben Reiter as a dark horse for Dunn’s services.  Don’t see it.

Now, IF Dunn is absolutely leaving … who are the teams we’d be “rooting” to sign him?  Boston is best, but Atlanta or SF would be great too.  If he goes to these locations we’d own a mid-20s first rounder plus a supplemental.  If he goes to Chicago or Houston, we’re looking at a supplemental and an early 2nd rounder (or worse if these teams decide to sign TWO type-A free agents and the other is higher ranked than Dunn.  Under this scenario we’d get a supp-1st and the signing team’s 2nd rounder.  Not good).

Zack Greinke at photo day 2010. Photo by Harry How/Getty Images North America

I have kind of a love-hate relationship with Keith Law sometimes.  I think he’s a pretty darn good talent evaluator and there’s a reason he had a front office job (and now the scouting analysis job).  He even once responded to an article follow-up email I sent him where I thought he was bashing Bowden’s moves a bit to heavily (ironic in that i’m now clearly on the anti-Bowden track as he was all along).  However, I think he over-analyzes and is a bit TOO stat heavy sometimes, and I believe he over-values certain players.

In yesterday’s chat on ESPN (insider only, apologies), there were a few Washington related questions.  Here was one that I couldn’t quite believe though:

Joseph (Sacramento, CA) asks, “J.Zimmermann, Espinosa, Burgess, Detwiler for Greinke? Does this work for both sides?”

Klaw answer: “It certainly works for Washington.”

Jordan Zimmermann, Espinosa, Burgess and Detwiler for Greinke straight up.  I say, no way.  I have to disagree with Law here.

That’s trading your current #2 pitcher, your anticipated starting 2nd baseman, your best OF prospect not named Bryce Harper, and a prospect lefty starting pitcher/former 1st round draft choice (who may not have great MLB stats but is a lefty who throws mid 90s) for a potential #1 starter.  I say Potential because, if you look at Greinke’s career numbers they’re not exactly overwhelming.  Yes he had a phenomenal 2009.  What happened in 2010?  Era+ of 100 means he was MLB average.  The years before he was a good but not overpowering starter on a bad team (putting up ERA+ figures of 126 and 124; good but not great).   There’s no promise of Greinke returning to that form (though the move to the NL will certainly help).  Is he a Ron Guidry or Rick Sutcliffe pitcher (guys who had one fabulous year and then came back down to earth)?

I think I’d be interested in Greinke (who wouldn’t?) but at a lesser price.  I’d trade Zimmermann and Espinosa for him.  Justification; Zimmermann is indeed a #2 starter quality guy but would be expendable with Greinke in the fold.  Espinosa shows great promise and I like him, but we also have a couple of high-profile 2nd basemen prospects in the minors that would feature soon (Lombardozzi or Kobernus).  Perhaps I’m as guilty as Law in overvaluing our own prospects, but to me Greinke isn’t good enough to merit the trade.  If it was a better “Ace,” someone with a repeated track record of success (Felix Hernandez, Lincecum, Halladay), the haul would be easily worth it.

But for Greinke, all 4 of those guys is too much.

Photo Courtesy of Jeff Saffelle/Nats320 Blog

MLB’s beat writer Bill Ladson kicked off the National’s offseason with a post summarizing the Nat’s major off season personnel decisions (free agents to be and Arbitration candidates).  The Nats have a relatively large number of arbitration decisions to make, as well as a few free agents.

Next up, the Arbitration cases.  We have a number of them.  In relative order of salary expectations:

Amazingly Ladson thinks Willingham is a non-tender candidate.  Uh, why would we possibly do that?  He was as solid a #5 hitter as there was when he was healthy, he’s a great clubhouse guy and contributes well above his salary.  Other clear tenders include Burnett, Flores and Lannan.

Olsen, Nieves and Walker are clearly guys that we do NOT tender contracts to.  Each for different but well documented reasons.  11/6/10 Update: Olsen assigned to AAA and refused the assignment, becoming a FA.

The difficult decisions lay with the other arbitration candidates.  With Wang i’d try to appeal to his (agent’s) sense of fairness and pre-negotiate an incentive laden contract, based on the lack of a single game played for his $2M in salary last year.  Perhaps a contract of $1M plus incentives based on number of starts that push the total value to $3M if he makes more than 25 starts.  Alberto Gonzalez has apparently reached Super2 Status and we a may have an arbitration case coming, if only because Gonzalez has stated he wants a chance to start.  The problem Alberto doesn’t seem to realize is that he’s an awful hitter, putting up a 57 ops+ in about 200 ABs last year.  He’s a classic good field-no hit dominican middle infielder and I doubt he finds many suitors on the trade market.  Lastly we come to Slaten and Peralta.  Both guys were minor league FAs for us in 2010 and both pitched lights out after getting called up to fill in for injuries and poor performers (basically replacing English and Bergmann).  Are they worth tendering and paying more money or do you cut them loose and take your chances with the next crop of minor leaguers coming up?  I say stick with the known (i.e., a fantastic bullpen last year) and bring them back.

Next up, two guys who may or may not have achieved Arbitration status.  Cots and baseball-america don’t necessarily agree.

Even though Chico seems like he’s buried in AAA, he’s still a lefty starter with a somewhat decent track record who gave us one decent spot-start this year.  Morse I’m more excited for.  I believe that Morse could be a hidden gem of a starter for us if given the time.  He hit 15 homers in 293 ABs, which projects to 30 homers over a full season.  He’s athletic (played shortstop in HS and in his MLB debut season) and can clearly play all around the diamond.  Clearly he can play first base since he’s 6’5″ and is a reformed middle infielder.  If Dunn walks, I can easily see Morse playing 1st and Bernadina playing RF (barring no FA pickups).

Next up; the Free Agents…

Strasburg's Elbow Injury. Photo LarryBrownSports.com

In the past few weeks, we are hearing news reports linking the Nats to such luminary names as Cliff Lee, Matt Kemp, and Zack Greinke as off season targets.  We are willing to go $125M/5years for Lee, we’d be “interested” in Kemp and we think we can put together a package of prospects for Greinke.

Now, I don’t mean to come off as a grumpy old Nats fan.  Because I’m not; I follow this team intently, I have a rather unhealthy obsession with the minor league pitching rotations (hence the name of the blog), and I truly want the team to do better.  But each of these rumors seems more ridiculous than the last and we (along with my fellow Nats bloggers) probably should have a bit of restraint when talking about the possibilities of actually acquiring these guys.

Zach Greinke is under contract to KC through 2012, has a limited no-trade clause and will probably cost (by various accounts) at least two young MLBers plus one or more additional prospects.  I use the Roy Halladay-to the Phillies deal as a comparison.  Halladay still had an entire year on the contract and Philly had to give up two high end prospects plus a third good young player in Kyle Drabek.   If Greinke was in the last year of his contract (ala Cliff Lee this year) the price would be far less (indeed, the Rangers gave up their #1 prospect Justin Smoak but the other players were lesser ranked prospects).

Matt Kemp apparently is irritated with his club’s management, leading to spurrious trade rumors.  But Kemp is even further away from free agency than Greinke, currently on a 2 year deal and then facing one more arbitration year before being cut loose by 2013.

Here’s the rub; the Nationals really don’t HAVE the kind of prospect depth that is required to make a deal for either player.  Baseball America’s Jim Callis ranked his top 10 Nats prospects in a recent chat  and he listed them in this order:

BA’s Jim Callis’ top 10 Nats prospects (the comments are his’)
1. Bryce Harper, of: Has monster power, though he won’t match Strasburg’s immediate impact.
2. Wilson Ramos, c: Matt Capps trade freed Ramos from being blocked by Joe Mauer with Twins.
3. Derek Norris, c: Still needs to polish bat and defense, but he has power and on-base ability.
4. A.J. Cole, rhp: First-round stuff earned him $2 million as a fourth-rounder.
5. Sammy Solis, lhp: Don’t be surprised if the $1 million second-rounder outperforms Cole.
6. Danny Espinosa, ss: Solid defender has cannon arm and surprising pop (40 HR in 2009-10).
7. Chris Marrero, 1b: Best proven all-around bat in system, though little defensive value.
8. Brad Peacock, rhp: Runs his fastball up to 95, flashes solid knuckle-curve and changeup.
9. Michael Burgess, of: Power potential remains impressive, but will he make enough contact?
10. Yunesky Maya, rhp: Former Cuban national team ace got $8 million big league contract.

Note he doesn’t mention our Minor leaguer of the year Tyler Moore, or our 12th round steal Robbie Ray.

Of this list, who is really trade-able?  Probably not a single one of the top 6 right now, nor Maya or Ray.  Perhaps Norris, if we find out that Jesus Flores is indeed healthy and we decide we can cash in one of the three of our young catchers.  That leaves Marrero (who can barely play 1B and doesn’t hit nearly well enough to be a DH prospect), Peacock (22 and probably the best experienced minor league arm we have), Burgess (who now has 3 full pro seasons and still can’t hit a curveball), and Tyler Moore (great season but he did it as a 23-yr old in high-A).  Our cache of early to mid 20s arms is good (Chico, Martis, Atilano, Stammen, Balester, Detwiler, Martin, Mock to start) but not one of them has proven they can produce at a sustained level without an ERA ballooning into the 5.00 era.  Who wants to trade for a middle-relief right handed pitcher?

Lastly, there’s the Cliff Lee question.  I just finished a blog posting showing how $125/5yrs is almost guaranteed to be an albatross of a contract.  But ask yourself; why would Lee come here even if offered more money than Texas or New York will throw at him?  Why did Mark Teixeira not come to Washington despite being (allegedly) offered more money than the Yankees?  Simple reason: we’re not good enough yet.  The team needs build its farm system and thus build its product on the field, while improving in the records and begin to attract better and better free agents.  Yes, some players will just take whoever offers the most money, but most players want to get paid AND have a chance to win championships, pad their legacy, etc.  If Ryan Zimmerman played for a winning team, he’d not only have more All Star appearances by now but he’d also probably have some MVP votes.

Now, if Strasburg was healthy next year, AND we had a legitimate #2 guy (could be Zimmermann, could be someone else), AND we knew that Marquis and Livan Hernandez would serve as good back-of-the-rotation innings eaters, and we resigned Dunn to preserve a pretty fearsome 3-4-5 lineup … well that sounds a lot more promising to a marquee Free Agent, right?

Now, think about how we’d possibly look 2 years from now at the beginning of 2012.  Harper has torn through a year in the minors, Solis has made  his mlb debut and looks like the 2nd coming of Madison Bumgarner.  Strasburg looks great in rehab starts in Florida and in Potomac.  Espinosa and Desmond are settled in to their roles, Zimmermann has bounced fully back from TJ surgery and looks great, and we’ve added an outfield bat to augment what we had in 2009.  That’s an enticing story, a good young up and coming team that should be able to attract a serious FA starter to augment what is already here.

So, the entire principle behind NOT signing Adam Dunn during the summer was the 2 draft picks we would acquire (the signing team’s 1st pick and a supplimental) after he declines our arbitration offer.

Check out this link at mlbtraderumors.com.  If this site is correct, and the analysis is accurate, then Dunn has fallen just below the threshold and is now a Type B Free Agent.

From a Nats standpoint, this is an unmitigated Disaster.  Now not only is there more incentive for other teams to sign him,there’s even LESS incentive for him to take a deal from us.  And, we’ll get merely a supplimental 1st pick.

Unless the entire 2010 season was just a charade and we plan on signing him anyway.  Per Boswell there’s a 3-year deal on the table now.  But if you’re Dunn, you HAVE  to see what is out there right now, right?

Assuming that he does not consider AL teams, as he has stated he wants to continue to play the field, here’s a quick rundown on NL teams and their 1st basemen situation:

NY: Ike Davis; up and coming prospect
PHI: Ryan Howard: long term contract
Fla: Gaby Sanchez (doesn’t matter, they’re not FA buyers)
Atl: Derrick Lee, who is a FA.  Troy Glaus also a FA but was awful this year. Could be a buyer.

Stl: Pujols
mil: Prince Fielder
Cincy: Joey Votto
Chi; it was Derrick Lee til they traded him.  Possible FA buyers.
Hou; it was Lance Berkman til they traded him.  But are they FA buyers?  I don’t think so.
Pitt: Garrett Jones (doesn’t matter, they’re not FA buyers)

LA: James Loney: cost contained and home grown.  plus no FA $$ spent until ownership divorce settled.
SD: Adrian Gonzalez
SF; Aubrey Huff: a FA and SF desperately needs hitters.
Col: Todd Helton; not the greatest hitter anymore but signed through 2013.
Ariz: Adam LaRoche who is a FA but I sense Ariz is rebuilding and not FA buyers

So, if he goes anywhere I think it could be either Atlanta, Chicago or San Francisco.  Chicago already has some serious payroll issues and an underperforming team.  SF may not have the payroll flexibility to buy Dunn despite really needing him.  Atlanta only has $60M committed next year and has a bunch of arbitration cases … but they’ve spent over $100m on payroll as recently as 2 years ago and may expand it out again.

Adding in AL teams, looking at 1B solutions (I can’t see him signing up for a team that will ONLY DH him, so we have to look at teams where he splits time between 1B and DH).

Bos: Youklis/Victor Martinez
NYY: Teixeira
Tampa: Carlos Pena, a FA who will be allowed to walk.  However, Tampa won’t buy Dunn
Tor: Lyle Overbay, a FA who is 34.  Can’t see Toronto buying an aging FA w/ new GM in town.
Balt: Ty Wiggington: another aging mediocre FA.  But are Orioles buyers?

Det: Cabrera
CWS: Paul Konerko, a FA coming off a fantastic season; i see him resigning here.
Minn: Justin Morneau
KC: Billy Butler
Cle: Matt LaPorta, the future of this team right now and bounty from the CC Sabathia trade.

LAA: Kendrys Morales;
Oak; Daric Barton: up and coming hitter, only 24.
Sea: Russell Branyon/Casey Kotchman but they have Justin Smoak coming up (bounty for Cliff Lee).
Texas: Jorge Cantu/Chris Davis; rotating door post Smoak trade, but Mitch Moreland is prospect of the future.

So, from what I can tell there’s only really 4 AL teams that even have FA spots at 1B.  Chicago (resigning Konerko), Tampa (not FA players), Toronto (are they FA buyers?) and Baltimore (why would Dunn go to a WORSE team than Washington?)

I still see him focusing on the NL.  Based on this … Dunn seems like he may have options in the NL, which means our chances of having him accept a 3 year deal with us less likely.  Not good news for us in 2011.