Nationals Arm Race

"… the reason you win or lose is darn near always the same – pitching.” — Earl Weaver

Keith Law’s Prospect Rankings released

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Law is the first pundit to put House as our #1 prospect. By the time he’s done, House may end up eclipsing our current record holder for most #1 listings (Lucas Giolito). Photo via primetimesportstalk.com

February is definitely prospect month, and one of the leading analysts out there is The Athletic’s Keith Law. On Monday 2/7/22 he released his system ranks, and then on XXX he released the NL East team’s prospect rankings, including our weary Nationals.

First, a couple thoughts on his system rankings. Law’s approach to evaluation definitely prioritizes ceiling over floor, and definitely discounts things you can find in abundance (RH relievers) versus scarcity (Catchers, top-end SPs, Shortstops, etc). And when it comes to evaluating entire systems, I feel like he goes well deeper than the best 3-4 guys in a system. So there’s some wild variations between his system rankings and a place like Baseball America’s, which ill go into briefly here.

Law’s top 5 systems: LA Dodgers, Seattle, Arizona, Tampa, Toronto.
BA’s top 5 systems: Seattle, Tampa, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Kansas City.

Not too far off … until you see where BA ranked Law’s #1 team (they had LA 8th) and where BA had Toronto (19th!). That’s some wild variation. They also wildly disagreed on some middle of the road teams, for similar reasons. I sense that BA is star-driven, Law’s is depth-driven. That being said … both shops had the exact same bottom 7 teams, just in slightly different order.

Washington comes in at #27 for Keith, #26 for BA coincidentally. Law does not include Ruiz as a prospect because he’s exhausted his rookie status per the new rules … this is something BA didn’t bother to adjudicate yet (nor any other prospect ranking shop), so I wonder if that didn’t ding the system a peg or two. Otherwise, Law’s evaluation of our system is this: improved from dead last last year, but two of our best arms got hurt, otherwise might be better.


OK, lets get to the individual players, which was released on 2/14/22. I know the Athletic is behind a paywall, so i’m going to be respectful of that and not post his list 1-x. You can glean the rankings though from my comments here.

Law’s methodology, which I always seem to need to repeat, is as follows: he’s more ceiling than floor. He could care less about fantasy. He discounts relievers. He is skeptical of bad mechanics in pitchers. He is definitely more “conservative” in projections of players. He is skeptical of 16-yr old DSL players and often waits until they perform in a domestic league. So, with those observations … here’s some thoughts on his player rankings.

  • (Reminder: no Ruiz, who likely was our #1)
  • #1: House. First time a pundit has named House #1. Says he hits the ball harder than any player in the 2021 draft (prep or college), is almost guaranteed to move to 3B at his size, but he has a chance to basically be Aaron Judge but on the dirt. Yeah. Sign me up.
  • #2 Cavalli. Law notes his struggles at AAA, but also isn’t that concerned. He thinks Cavalli’s worst-case scenario (barring a massive arm injury of course) is a workhorse #2 or #3 starter for the next decade. Sign me up.
  • He’s somewhat bullish on Rutledge (#3), but is worried about effort-full short arm action continuing his litany of injuries as we saw in 2021. Don’t be surprised if he’s converted to a reliver if he has another 30-inning season, though if the dude can’t even throw 30 innings without getting hurt … he’s not going to cut it as a reliever either.
  • #4 is Henry … upside of a #2 starter if his elbow holds up. We’ll see in 2022 how well it can hold up.
  • He loves #5 Adon, noting the same thing i’ve noticed; easy arm action. Its like we’re looking at a young Livan Hernandez.
  • He’s very high on Roismar Quintana, ranking him #7 when other shops have him well lower (BA had him #25).
  • He’s a bit lower on both Antuna and Lara than other places, which i’m in agreement with on both cases. Antuna at #8 is about where i’d like to see him. He was surprised Lara got to the majors and sees him as a #4 starter

Interestingly, Law’s top 10 and BA’s top 10 (excluding Quintana) have the exact same names, just in slightly different orders. There’s a bit more variations when looking at some of the more bloggier/fantasy focused sites we have lists for (Prospects1500.com, ProspectsLive.com, Prospects361.com), but so far the two biggest/most professional pundits are pretty aligned.

  • Law is one of the higher guys on Lile, having him at #11. I’m concerned that Lile can’t project as a center fielder at 6’0″, which means he’s gonna have to mash as a corner OF to be of any value. It means he’s gonna have to add power to his frame and power to his game.
  • He’s highest man so far on Tim Cate, at #12, noting that he may be headed to the pen based on his inability to get AA hitters out this year.
  • Jake Irvin at #14 (remember him?) Irvin’s been away so long that BA didn’t even have him in their top 40 (!!), and only one of other blog sites even mentioned him (Prospects1500 at #36). Law clearly remembers him, and expects him to come back. He may be the only one.
  • Perhaps an indictment of the system … or perhaps a sneaky good find, but he has Lucious Fox, our waiver claim from last fall, at #15. He thinks Fox could literally make it to the majors this year as a utility infielder backup.
  • At #19 and #20 he has two guys who basically sound the same: Evan Lee and Mitchell Parker. Both lefties, both with fantastic K/9 rates despite middling velocity, both have to have everything go right to turn into a 5th starter in the bigs. I guess there’s worse things to have in your system.

In his Honorable Mention section, he did call out some fan favorites, including T.J. White (reminding us that White was incredibly young for the class, getting drafted two weeks before turning 18, which means we basically got a high school Junior who put up those numbers), Boissiere, Barley, Brzycky, etc.

Notable names not on Law’s list:

  • Seth Romero, who he called out as someone who has completely fallen out of consideration specifically.
  • He also does not have our new $3.9M guy Cristian Vaquero, perhaps because of the timing of the signing and perhaps because we have zero to go on except a large bonus figure and huge hype (remember this when you see other shops rank the guy #4).
  • He does not have guys like Mason Thompson, Riley Adams, or Donovan Casey. Perhaps because they project as spare parts (middle reliever, backup catcher, 4th outfielder), as opposed to scarcity positions (starting C, starting pitcher, SS, CF).

All in all, a solid list with solid analysis.


New Feature: trying to build an all-prospects future team just based on a pundit’s rankings. Here’s what we’d have here:

  • Catchers: Ruiz and Riley Adams I suppose
  • Starting Rotation: Grey, Cavalli, Henry, Lara, Adon, Irvin and Saenz as a swingman/depth
  • Bullpen: Rutledge, Carrillo, Cate, Cronin, Ramirez, Lee, Parker, Brzykcy
  • Infield: House at 3B, Cruz at SS, Garcia at 2B, White at 1B, with backups like Infante, Fox, Barley
  • Outfield: Vaquero in Center, Quintana/Antuna in left, De la Rosa in right, with depth in Lile and Boissiere.

I mean, that’s not a bad lineup to look forward to…

Written by Todd Boss

February 14th, 2022 at 9:50 am

16 Responses to 'Keith Law’s Prospect Rankings released'

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  1. Thanks Todd. The best part of Keith Law is he lives in Wilmington, so we’ll have lots of scouting there.

    After reading this, it enforces how much fun Fredericksburg can be this year. Lara and the kid mashers.

    Mark L

    14 Feb 22 at 11:24 am

  2. Amen re House. That’s what I thought at the time of the draft, that the Nats got the highest-ceiling hitter in the draft, perhaps by far. There’s no “projecting” that has to be done about his frame, or his power. Now, there’s also no guarantee that he makes it, but I like his odds better than the whole crop of “projectable” HS shortstops drafted ahead of him.

    Interesting that Law still believes in Rutledge so much. We’ll see. Also interesting re Cate and Irvin. There wasn’t much redeeming about Cate’s performance in 2021, and unlike Rutledge, he wasn’t injured. Don’t know whether Todd or Law has confused Adon and Lara, but Adon was the one who got the MLB look at the end of the season. His stats at A+ and AA weren’t good at all, though, so I’m not sure what they see in him. Lara is the younger fireballer. As Mark notes, he’ll be in Fredericksburg, probably in the rotation with Denaburg and Saenz.

    Todd, I share your concerns about Lile and corner power. He’s one of those “projectable” high schoolers, but it seems that only a few actually develop real power. That’s why I’m more excited about White than Lile and don’t really understand their relative draft positions. (I did see some post on one of the lists that Lile has put on 17 pounds this offseason, though.)

    Along the same lines, I have little confidence that De La Rosa will develop corner power. The Nats see something in him, and in Antuna, but there’s nothing in the stats of either of them so far to justify high rankings at this point.

    Speaking of power, my dark horse who no one is talking about is Will Frizzell. He had one golden season for Texas A&M last spring. Is it real? I don’t know, but that’s more tangle to me than all the projectable guys.

    Quintana is the international man of mystery. Played all of seven games in 2021. FanGraphs guys have been high on him.

    As for Lucius Fox, ranking him makes more sense than ranking Cluff, who several lists have at around the same ranking. Cluff had a good turn in the AFL but was awful in the regular season. At thee same time, I don’t see a significant MLB upside for Fox, either.

    KW

    14 Feb 22 at 8:06 pm

  3. Might be fun to have a separate post the all-prospects future team. BA has long done something similar, projecting the lineup five years in the future (but not exclusively including prospects).

    Of course a whole lot of the Nats’ future revolves around whether Soto is still in the middle of the Nats’ order by that time. In the meantime, they’ve got a significant problem with the holes left by failing prospects — Kieboom, Robles, S. Romero, maybe Garcia, maybe Denaburg and Rutledge. And other than Ruiz and maybe Cavilli, there’s not a lot of help on the horizon of the next year or two.

    Actually if it were me betting on Cavalli, I’d trade him right now at what seems like max value. I’d love to be wrong about him, and I know that he’s still learning how to pitch, but he also still has a relatively low floor. Alex Meyer was a can’t-miss guy, but the bird in the hand of Span proved to be a lot more valuable than the two in the bush that Meyer never turned out to be.

    KW

    14 Feb 22 at 8:26 pm

  4. So, on Cavalli … he sputtered in AAA after rising two levels and pitching all year, then arrived at a near-MLB level with a new baseball and ran out of gas.

    I don’t think he’s Alex Meyer. Meyer had a big arm but only two pitches and questionable mechanics. Cavalli is much more of an athlete (remember he was a 2-way player in college) and is in a much better position to turn into an innings eater. That’s incredibly valulable.

    I’d rather have what he could become right now, versus what he could fetch in trade value.

    Todd Boss

    15 Feb 22 at 10:19 am

  5. KW: Definitely useful to do an “all prospects” post … i did that super fast and didn’t even include soto.

    Todd Boss

    15 Feb 22 at 10:33 am

  6. Okay, KW, you’re now in 1st place for the worst idea of 2022. It will take a big one to dethrone you.

    Mark L

    15 Feb 22 at 11:14 am

  7. “Worst idea” being trade Cavalli? Heck yeah, I’d do it in a heartbeat. I’d want an established star-level player in return, though. If you can get Josh Bell for Crowe plus a Latin lottery ticket (Yean posted a 6.08 ERA), I’d want someone at least as good in return.

    My reasoning is based more on the overall team situation than it is the player. I do have one particular nagging concern about the player, though: he gets hit too much for his supposed dominant stuff, including 12 hits per 9 when he reached AAA. This has been an issue for Cavalli all the way back to college. I see a stat like that — not just with him, but with anyone — and immediately think that he doesn’t have enough movement to go with his velocity. Yes, he was a two-way player, so yes, he’s still learning how to pitch. We’ll see. But it’s at least a yellow flag.

    Also, organization-wide I just don’t trust them to draft and develop starters. The last one who they drafted (or signed internationally) and developed in-house for an effective MLB starter for them was . . . Stras. Just because they keep letting Fedde start doesn’t mean that he’s a “starter.”

    This gets to the overriding reason that I’m suggesting a high-profile trade, and not just one: they can’t field a competitive team right now. They have no starting pitchers who were both healthy and reasonably effective last season. They have only three of eight field positions filled with above-average players (Soto, Bell, and Ruiz). Their bullpen is Swiss cheese. They won only four more games than the Pirates. I get NO sense that the ownership, management, and fan base have any patience for a five-year rebuild and waiting for House and his generation, though. Therefore, they’ve got to make bold moves. They did at the trade deadline, and that was the right call, but to really put together a competitive squad, they’re going to have to do a lot more. That means trades of whatever assets they have. Cavalli certainly is one of those.

    The alternative is a team filled with guys like Escobar and Maikel Franco . . . aka, Orioles South.

    KW

    15 Feb 22 at 1:20 pm

  8. Trading Cavalli. Ok, well, in a vacuum ANY player could be traded … if we got enough value in return. I mean, if Toronto came to us and said, “hey we’ll trade you Vlad Jr straight up for Cavalli” yeah we’d flip him in a heartbeat. But that’s the rub; what’s appropriate value back for a guy whose range of outcomes seems to be anywhere between Alex Meyer and Lance Lynn?

    If he can become a #2 starter who eats innings with a double digit k/9 rate … that’s a $20M/year player.

    Agree; the Nats have not been good at developing pitchers lately. But … Cavalli doesn’t need to be developed. He was a 1st round pick nearly fully formed who hit AAA last year. His remaining development falls into the “tweaking” versus “developing” categories.

    Actually, the fact that they’re goint to suck in 2022 is a great argument to KEEP nearly all these young players and just let them frigging play. No more yanking up and down Robles/Garcia/Kieboom, no more hemming ahd hawing over what bargain basement veteran FA we can get to Catch; just go with the kids. At the end of 2022 … we’ll know a heck of a lot more about these guys, and some of them might very well just make it happen.

    Todd Boss

    15 Feb 22 at 2:18 pm

  9. Yeah, but they don’t look like they’re going to let them play. C. Hernandez by trade is a 2B, which seems to be Garcia’s best position, although Hernandez also has played some 3B, which is Kieboom’s supposed best position. Then they signed Franco, re-signed Escobar (presumably to start as SS?), signed Fox, Strange-Gordon, basically every half-baked infielder available. Doesn’t look like a lot of confidence in letting Garcia and Kieboom play.

    Lane Thomas flat-out was better than Robles last year. I don’t know what to do with Robles. He wouldn’t have much trade value (yeah, the guy who once could have brought Realmuto, allegedly). I have seen some chatter of putting Robles back in CF and platooning Thomas and Yadiel in LF . . . but that ignores that Thomas was better than Robles.

    The Nats really are in a pickle, and a lot of it has to do with the failed/slow development of Robles, Kieboom, Garcia, Fedde, Romero, et al. It’s just very difficult to maintain success when so much of your top-tier talent doesn’t pan out, even when you manage to find an all-time gem in Soto.

    KW

    15 Feb 22 at 3:23 pm

  10. If the Nationals bench prospects so they can play 1year FAs in 2022, a year they’re clearly tanking, then the entire front office should be fired.

    Todd Boss

    15 Feb 22 at 5:23 pm

  11. This is officially Day 2 of the season being delayed as pitchers & catchers were to report yesterday.

    Mark L

    16 Feb 22 at 7:03 am

  12. I don’t disagree that the organization has reached a depth where it would benefit from a commitment to at least of a couple of years of a demi-rebuild. (There’s no way they go into the full five-year total tank thing.) But . . . I REALLY have a hard time seeing Mark Lerner and Rizzo signing off on this approach. I also have a hard time imagining the conversation between the two of them, where Rizzo has to explain why they’re in this situation, basically because he and his staff have totally screwed up a decade of drafting. More power to Riz for assembling a championship roster, but the piper is now being paid for all of those empty drafts.

    The other 800-pound gorilla in this room is the Boras/Soto axis and the thoroughly reasonable pronouncement that Soto won’t think about extending unless and until he/they are convinced that the Nats are moving back toward contention. That issue is a significant piece of this puzzle. And it’s not just Juan, it’s likely Elian too. Harper and Rendon walked without the franchise really making much effort to keep them, but it feels like it would be an even bigger blow to the fan base if the same thing happens with Soto.

    Now, whether the front office has a clue about how to put the team back into contention remains to be seen. Pre-lockout chatter about chasing Schwarber doesn’t indicate that they have a real grasp of where the problem areas are. Post-trade-deadline, the offense actually stayed quite productive. The pitching was the real dumpster fire, both starters and relievers. If they’ve got $80M or so to spend, 50-60 of that needs to be on pitching.

    KW

    16 Feb 22 at 7:49 am

  13. And farewell to Mr. Face of the Franchise, who apparently decided he didn’t want to endure the insanity of the lockout. Despite his walkoff heroics, I’d argue that this was his biggest hit as a Nat. It’s the one that convinced his brethren that they could beat this guy and win this thing:

    https://sportsnaut.com/watch-ryan-zimmerman-blasts-hr-off-gerrit-cole-in-game-1-of-world-series/

    Of course his second-biggest may have been the broken-bat single in the wild card that kept hope alive.

    KW

    16 Feb 22 at 7:58 am

  14. Juan Soto has just confirmed that the Nats offered him a 13 year $350 million contract before the lockout and that he blew him off.
    Enjoy him now because he will be gone as soon as he can.

    Mark L

    16 Feb 22 at 2:59 pm

  15. Soto’s declining of the offer. I’m … well, are we sure that was a good deal for Soto?
    – $350 would be 3rd largest amount ever guaranteed, but ..
    – 13/$350 greatly UNDER values his per-year production. That’s less than $27/year AAV, which is outside the top 20 of AAV in the hsitory of the game.

    Furthermore, he’s 22. This would buy out his age 23-35 years. Which leaves him at age 35 out of contract. Most of these guys are signing big deals that take them well through their 30s so they’re not left holding the bag.

    Look, the guy is a Boras client. You can count on one hand the number of Boras clients who have signed pre-FA deals. Its what Boras does; you hire him to create value. Soto makes a ton of sense to go to NY and crush for the DR market in New York as a lefty in that stadium … he may be worth a $400M deal. can’t begrudge him for waiting it out.

    Todd Boss

    16 Feb 22 at 4:29 pm

  16. […] the links to past analysis: Keith Law/The Athletic, Baseball America, ProspectsLive.com, Prospects1500, Prospects361. We’re still waiting for a […]

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