Nationals Arm Race

What a deflating end to a great run of wins for the team. Photo credit unknown.

Jim Riggleman shocked the Natmosphere by abruptly resigning after today’s 1-0 win over Seattle (a win that gives the team 11 wins in their last 12 games and pushes them over .500 for the first time this late in the season since 2005).

I can’t blame him.  He’s more than proven his worth managing a team in the lower 1/3 of major league payroll, without its best pitcher all of 2011, missing Ryan Zimmerman for the bulk of the season and having to deal with the loss of his “other” major FA signing Adam LaRoche.  He’s worked a group of players that includes more than a few 2011 minor league free agents into the hottest team in baseball.  Mike Rizzo should have realized that picking up his option was the right thing to do.  The team let him toil as “interim manager” for months, even while vastly outperforming his predecessor (Manny Acta was 26-61 in 2009, then Riggleman went 33-42 with a group of players hampered by injuries late in the season).

Riggleman certainly has his detractors (small ball, quick hooks, sentimental pitching decisions all being mentioned) but I find it hard to believe there’s a manager out there who could have gotten more out of this group.

Flat out, the team should have picked up his 2012 option long before it came to this.

A disappointing piece of news.

A.J. Cole has quietly begun to dominate low-A ball. photo: AP

(Programming Note: as you may have noticed, i’m about 3 versions of this recurring post behind.  A long weekend away and then two weeks of quick deadlines at work and todo items at home have conspired against these posts.  I hate it when life interferes with blogging!  Anyway, I’ve kept up-to-date the trends, copied over some of the “news and notes” from the older posts and will just pick up with the 14th cycle).

The time has come to add in Short-A (starting 6/17) and GCL (6/20).  There’s 15 arms assigned to the Auburn Doubledays, and it will take a bit to determine who the starters are.  I’ll do a couple of quick posts with predictions versus actual rosters (though predicting the short-season squads is really difficult, since most of the guys there are 2011 draftees).  As always, Sue Dinem has a nice post highlighting where the Auburn roster guys came from (2010 assignment or 2011 draftee).  Lastly, Byron Kerr highlighted the opening day for the Auburn affiliate.

Here are the daily links from NationalsProspects, for reference below:

• Thursday 6/16 game reviews (Meyers, Roark, Bronson, Cole & McCatty)
• Friday 6/17 game reviews (Milone, Davis, Potomac Rained out, Ray, Demmin & Bates)
• Saturday 6/18 game reviews (Stammen, Peacock & Martinez, Holder & Demny, Jordan, Estevez)
• Sunday 6/19 game reviews (Maya, Arneson, Potomac rainout, Solis, Encarnation)
• Monday 6/20 game reviews (Detwiler, Harrisburg/Potomac/Hagerstown off, Lopez, Karns)

Good

• Brad Meyers rebounded from a string of sub-par to bad starts to take the win on 6/16.  Line: 7IP, 7H, 2ER, BB, 4K, HR.  Meyers has (to this point) kept up his unbelievable k/bb ratio (39 to 4 in AAA, 77 to 4 on the season), but has been struggled in AAA thus far (a 4.80 era and well over a hit per inning).
• Tanner Roark also rebounded on 6/16, putting in a quality start (2er in 6ip).   He still seems to have taken a severe step backwards this year (with a 6.00 era on the season) and may be pitching his way out of the team’s long term plans.
• AJ Cole struck out 9 in 5 innings on 6/16, giving him 40 (against 8 walks) in 32 low-A innings thus far.  I’ll take that from a 19yr old.
• Ryan Demmin‘s return to starting pitching on 6/17 for Auburn went well; 5IP, 3H, 1R, 1ER, 3BB, 4K.  He washed out of Potomac’s bullpen earlier in the year; lets see if he can stick in Auburn’s rotation.
• Collin Bates may not have started 6/17’s Auburn game, but he went 4 innings and clearly seems in competition for the rotation (so i’ll grade him here).  Results?  Pretty dominant: 4IP, 2H, 0R, 0BB, 3K.    Lets see if he gets a start the next time through the rotation.
• Brad Peacock got a bit unlucky on 6/17, turning 4 hits over 7 innings into 3 runs, but another 7Ks to pad his gaudy season numbers helped him to the victory.   Honestly, I’m not sure what he really has left to prove in AA; why do we keep Stammen in the AAA rotation if he’s being used out of the pen when he gets called up?
• Paul Demny had his best outing of the year on 6/18, pitching 5 innings of one-hit ball before making way for his bullpen.
• Erik Arneson put up good numbers for Harrisburg (this time) on 6/19: 3 hits and 7 Ks over 6 innings.  As i’ve said before, Arneson seems to have picked the short straw and seems to be the organization’s go-to spot starter.

Bad

• Evan Bronson got hit very hard on 6/16 on the day he seemingly took over Mitchell Clegg‘s rotation spot, giving up 11 hits in 5 and a third.
• An ugly outing for Craig Stammen, perhaps jet-lagged from his brief callup on 6/18.  Line: 3IP 6H, 5ER, BB, 2K, 2HR.
• Carlos Martinez got a spot start to cover for a Harrisburg doubleheader on 6/18, and in doing so became the 12th starter used in AA.  The result?  He showed why he’s not in the rotation, getting peppered for 6 hits and 3 runs over 4 innings.
• Wirkin Estevez had an interesting game in Auburn’s 2nd game of the season on 6/18: 3⅔ IP, 9H, 6R, 6ER, BB, 6K.   9 hits but 6 Ks in less than 4 innings?   Estevez pitched well in the DSL last year, but history has shown that it may not translate to the continental pro game.
• Yunesky Maya returned to Syracuse from a 4-game stint in the bigs, and must have been depressed for his 6/19 start.  He gave up 10 hits over 5 innings.  Unfortunately, I think he better get used to living in upstate New York for a while.  Amazingly he was in line for the victory by virtue of his team’s offense.
• Pedro Encarnation‘s first short-A start was not terrible, but wasn’t great; 3/ 2/3 innings, 3 runs, 4 walks. I’m surprised he’s in the short-A rotation, given that he’s not really shown us much during his first two pro seasons.
• A bad short-A start for Kelvin Lopez, another guy who wasn’t exactly great for us in the GCL last year.  Line: 3⅓ IP, 5H, 3R, 3ER, 2BB, 3K.

Mediocre/Inconclusive

• Shane McCatty had a run of the mill spot-start on 6/16: 4ip, 5 hits, 3 runs (2 earned).  It is the 2nd time in 2 weeks that one of the lesser bullpen arms in Hagerstown has been pressed into action.  Maybe they should have kept Garrett Mock down there for the playoff push.
• Tommy Milone had a poor start (by his standards) on 6/17, giving up 7 hits and 5 runs (4 earned) in less than 6 innings.  He continues his mastery of the strike zone though, now standing at 82ks against 5 walks on the year.  Unfortunately, his ERA has been creeping up over the past few starts, leaking runs here and there.  I still think the team could make use of him in the rotation if the need arises, this year.
• Erik Davis obviously was around the plate on 6/17, giving up 10 hits to go against 8Ks (and 0 walks) in a 6 inning effort.
• Robbie Ray wasn’t quite as dominant as we’ve come to expect on 6/17, but only gave up one run through 5 to take a no-decision.  He gave up quite a few hits and didn’t have nearly the dominant K rates as he has in previous games.  He’s still been amazingly dominant considering his age and his lack of pro experience.
• Trevor Holder‘s performance on 6/18 was probably better than his box score showed: 7 hits and 3 runs over 6 and a third, but all three runs came on one big homer.  It was enough to cost him the loss.
• Taylor Jordan had a quality start on 6/18, but nothing special.  6ip, 3 runs, a couple of Ks.  He’s continued to get wins for Hagerstown with decent numbers and not-very-dominant stuff.  But he has a sub 3.00 era and doesn’t walk a ton of guys.  I don’t know how much upside that means.
• Sammy Solis piched out the string for a Hagerstown team that was eliminated from the first half playoffs on 6/19: 4 innings, couple of earned runs, 5 ks.  Nothing bad, but nothing special.
• Another mediocre (for him) start for Ross Detwiler on 6/20: 6⅔ IP, 3H, 2R, 2ER, 4BB, 3K.  I continue to maintain he’s injured in some way or another and trying to pitch through it.
• Nathan Karns had an up-and-down rehab start in GCL (season opener on 6/20).  2⅔ IP, 1H, 0R, 2BB, 2K.  Its usually difficult to tell who the “starters” are in GCL, but we’ll do our best.

Relievers of Note and other Thoughts

• Mark Zuckerman reports that Chien-Ming Wang is (finally) ready to leave extended spring training and go out on a rehab assignment.  This means he’s going to supplant a starter, somewhere in the system.  I’d guess he’s going to Potomac to start, as they seem to have the least-performing collection of starters right now and he’d completely overmatch the younger hitters in low-A.  The implication of his going out on a rehab assignment is this: he only gets 30 days in the minors (probably about 6 starts) before the Nats have to make a decision on what to do with him.  He has no minor league options, so in 30 days he either joins the 25-man roster, goes back on the DL or is DFA’d.  After all we’ve invested in him (and for the sake of his career), I’m hoping he still has something left.
• The rotation in Harrisburg has proved challenging to keep up with; they’ve now used 11 different starters and we’re only about a 1/2 of the way through the season.  At the time of this writing I can’t tell any longer who is really in the rotation.  Tatusko seems back, but Arneson has pitched well out of the bullpen (though only mediocre as a spot-starter).  I guess its a good problem to have, as they’ve rolled to 10 straight wins recently and are getting pretty dominant performances out of 3/5ths of their rotation nearly every time out.
• Jimmy Barthmaier got slaughtered out of the pen on 6/1, which broke up a decent string of appearances for him lately.  He’s got ugly season-long numbers, is old for AA, and may be on his way out.
• Hagerstown relievers Shane McCatty and Ben Graham both got torched in a very odd 6/1 Hagerstown game.  Its the 3rd such god-awful outing for McCatty this year, sprinkled around decent ones.  Same story for Graham.  Both guys really aren’t getting the k/9 rates they need as bullpen options in the low-minors to have any shot of moving up.
• Christopher Manno numbers, as of June 1st: 25 1/3 innings, 0 earned runs, 8 hits, FOURTY strikeouts against eight walks.  As frequent commenter Mark L might say, “what does this guy have to do to get promoted??”  He proved later on in the month that he is human (giving up a few runs here and there towards the end of the first half), but he still has dominant numbers and merits a promotion.
• Ryan Mattheus looks like he’s fully recovered from 2009 Tommy John surgery, with 24 Ks in 21 innings and only 10 hits allowed through AA and AAA stints on the season.  If anything his numbers have improved at AAA.  His problem is 40-man status; he passed through waivers and was retained by the club, and I’m guessing they won’t want to put him back on until completely necessary (perhaps 9/1 callup?).  Update: he got his long awaited shot at the majors, having been added to the 40-man on 6/10/10. He replaces Cole Kimball, who has “right shoulder inflammation” (as nearly every major league pitcher does) and went on the 15-day DL. Kimball has been pretty effective thus far, but is walking guys far too often and the rest may do him some good.
• Not that Bryce Harper is involved with the pitching in Hagerstown, but I thought i’d take a quick look at how he’s faring with his latest outburst.  As of 6/3, here’s his ranks in the entire Sally League in various categories: 6th in batting average (.346), 3rd in OBP (.432), t-1st in homers, 1st in RBI, 1st in Total bases, 3rd in OPS (1.055), and he’s even t-14th in stolen bases.  Not a bad set of rankings considering he’s like the 2nd youngest guy in the league.
• Brad Peacock is starting to get noticed by some of the ESPN scouts.  Jason Grey featured Peacock on 6/2 from an NL-only fantasy perspective, noting he’s at 95mph with a “good” curve and a developing change-up.  That’s not going to be enough to be a major league starter.  Grey’s espn colleague Keith Law took a Peacock-related question on 6/2, noting that Peacock really is a one-pitch pitcher without an above-average 2nd pitch according to most scouts he’s asked about.  Neither of these reports is really that positive about Peacock’s future unfortunately.  My guess is that he will probably be told to start really working on his change-up, which reportedly has good velocity delta but not much movement and not much command.  You would have to think Peacock needs good command of that third pitch to have any shot at being a starter.
• Interesting Harrisburg moves last week: Oliver Perez going to the DL, with Arneson continuing his pin-ball assignments throughout the organization, coming back down from Syracuse.  He seems to be the designated spot-starter/moving man this season. Erik Davis was on the DL for a quick trip and regains his rotation spot, but it remains to be seen what the rotations look like after this shakes out.
• What is going on with Bobby Hansen??  He hasn’t appeared in a game for Hagerstown since 6/1, but isn’t on the DL.  He seems to have given his rotation spot to Sammy Solis … but hasn’t appeared since.  He wasn’t Hagerstown’s worst starter and had pretty good numbers as a 21-yr old in low-A.  Is he hurt?  Is he in the dog house?  Has he gone and hooked up with the manager’s daughter?
• Tom Milone is starting to get noticed by the national press.  Rob Sickels had a feature on him on 6/20, as did Rob Neyer on sbnation.com
• The busleaguesbaseball blog featured Auburn on 6/20.
• 9-lives pitcher Garrett Mock was placed on the 7-day DL in Harrisburg after two brutal starts there.   As of 6/21, here’s the list of pitchers on the 7-day DL in AA: Mock, Perez, Atilano and Chico.  In other words, a collection of guys who are all way too old for AA and are closer to their outright release than making it back to the big club.
• We may soon see a whole slew of 2011 draftees taking over rotation spots in Auburn.  Some of the “starters” we have there have not exactly impressed during their pro careers, and in some cases makes you wonder how they still have jobs.

Trends

Top 3 deserving promotion: Peacock, Ray, Milone
Top 3 whose jobs are in jeopardy: Mock, Holder, Grace

Werth is catching a lot of criticism for his performance lately. photo: Mitchell Layton/Getty Images NA

WP columnist Tom Boswell conducted his weekly chat today 6/20/11, via the Washington Post chat pages.  Boswell heavily covered the US Open and took a number of questions on Rory McIlroy and the tournament, but he did field some Nats questions.

As always, the questions below are paraphrased from their original asking for space and levity.

Q: Is Jayson Werth already a bust?
A: I think there’s some impatient Nats fans out there.  Yeah he’s hitting .232/.332/.409, but his OPS+ is still above 100, so its not like he’s having an Adam Dunn-esque season.  I think he’s struggled with the absence of his lineup protection Ryan Zimmerman and has tried too hard to carry the team and earn his contract.  Happens all the time in the first year of a massive deal, or the first year with a new team and a new stadium and a new city.

Lots of pundits flat out panned the Werth contract.  Too much money, he’s too old, he’s not a superstar.  Well, its not like the Phillies didn’t want him back; he was a coveted free agent and we overpaid because we had to.  I still maintain that if Werth had signed 7rs/$126M with New York or Boston, nobody would have said a thing (indeed, Carl Crawford signed for MORE money and is hitting worse, yet you don’t see many articles slamming Boston for such a horrible contract).  I think a lot of the flak was just the Nats perception as being cheap, and breaking that perception.

(Boswell mentions the same two players I just did, and says that he believes Werth is just “playing tight” right now.  Fair enough).

Q: Did Riggleman leave Gorzelanny in to bat in the 4th inning on 6/19, in an attempt to avoid another Marquis-blowup by taking him out prior to 5 complete innings (so that he wouldn’t qualify for the win)?

A: Maybe.  Maybe not.  Gorzelanny was giving up a LOT of hits, he had given up runs in 3 straight innings and was probably heading for an early shower.  But the Nats got 2 runs back in the bottom of the 4th and Gorzelanny wasn’t near 100 pitches on the day.  Unfortunately he went out and gave up more runs in the 5th and had to get hooked.  Managers aren’t omniscient, and Riggleman had no idea he was going to get pounded for 3 more runs.  Keep in mind as well, this was Gorzelanny’s first game back, he didn’t really have a ton of rehab time (one AAA start) and was more or less rushed back into service because of how bad Maya performed.  (Boswell didn’t really answer the question, just saying that Riggleman has to manage a group of 25 guys, each with different incentives).

Q: How would you re-align baseball, if you were commissioner for a day?  Would you keep divisions?

A: Short answer: Move Houston to AL West to create a fantastic Dallas-Houston rivalry and to create 6 divisions of 5 teams each.  Standardize the DH across the board.  Have rotating divisional focus but stick to it (not like what they do now, where its random what teams play who).  Who cares if there’s inter-league play at the end of the season; make the matchups compelling and people will come to see the games.

Another move could be to add 2 more teams and have an NFL-style playoff structure.  8 divisions of 4 teams each, with 4 division winners and two wildcards in each league.  The two wild cards play the lesser two divisional winners, giving the two best divisional winners a weekend bye and some semblance of an advantage.  Assuming you add two teams to to the AL (in Portland and San Antonio, the two current largest markets without major league baseball teams), you could have divisions like this:

This plan would preserve most of the current rivalries in baseball while creating some new ones.  Tampa moves out of the AL east but goes against two like-minded franchises in terms of building on youth in Texas and Kansas City.  The AL South has a bit more travel, but Tampa’s strong TV ratings should be maintained with 8pm start times instead of 7pm during its many central time zone trips.  San Antonio builds an instant in-division rivalry with their Houston neighbors.  The AL Central keeps its four core teams while the AL west gets an instant Seattle-Portland rivalry while keeping all its games on Pacific time.

The NL East, Central and West all make plenty of sense.  The only fault of this plan is what to do with the collection of teams that end up in the NL “South.”  You could do something a bit more radical to the existing rivalries in this plan:

Here, the Pirates join the NL east to allow Florida and Atlanta to stay close together.  The central teams now cut down on travel a little bit (though Cincinnati is closer to Pittsburgh than most any other NL team, so splitting them up doesn’t make a ton of sense).

Just some random thoughts.  (Boswell, coincidentally, completely punted on the question, saying he had no idea but that any plan done just to make life easier for the AL east doormats Toronto and Baltimore needs to be rethought.)

Q: Do the Nats move Rendon to 1st base if he hits like everyone is talking?

A: It all depends.  If he hits his way into the majors next June, then we may have to get creative where to put him (left field?)  If it takes a few years and we’re looking at FA first basemen then sure, 1st base makes perfect sense.  If its 3 years from now, Desmond is still hitting .205 and Espinosa looks like a franchise player, move Espinosa to short and install Rendon at 2nd.  Lots of options.  Way too early to decide.  Hell, we haven’t even signed the guy yet!    Boswell insinuates that perhaps its Zimmerman who makes way.  Wow, hadn’t considered that possibility.  I have a hard time believing that we’re going to move the best defensive third baseman in the majors on account of a few throwing errors.

Q: Is Bernadina part of the Nats future?

A: I have a hard time believing so.  He’s a fringe-below average major league hitter.  He can play a good center, but we’re grooming Bryce Harper to play center (I would hope).  So Bernadina is left to compete for a left field spot with guys who can adequately man the position but hit 25 homers.  (Boswell completely ignored the Bernadina question).

Q: How does Morse’s prowness defensively at 1st compare to LaRoche and Dunn?

A: He’s clearly in between, though closer to LaRoche than most would say.   So far this year in about 2/3s the innings Morse has a 4.1 UZR/150 rating, which is pretty darn good for a first time full time first baseman.  LaRoche’s was higher (at 9), not surprisingly since he’s one of the best defensive first basement in the league.  Dunn?  He was a -4 uzr/150 in 2010 for the Nats and hasn’t played 1st enough to get a rating so far in 2011.  I always thought Dunn was more agile than people gave him credit for, but that he really struggled on grounders and throws from his middle infielders.  (Boswell more or less agrees).

Q: With Morse playing 1st so well and hitting even better, is he the future first baseman?  What do we do with LaRoche?

A: A very good question.  If LaRoche is healthy, I think he’s your first baseman.  He’s signed for 2012 with a decent 2013 option.  Meanwhile, Morse clearly needs to be in the lineup.  I think the answer may be to flip Nix for a prospect and put Morse back in left when the time comes.  Its nice to have positional flexibility with your hitters.  I think you wait til next spring training and see just how LaRoche is hitting post surgery before making this determination.  (Boswell rambled about how Morse may be hitting what we can expect from Harper).

Q: What are the odds of a Beltway World Series?  Which franchise makes the playoffs first?

A: Slim to none on the first question; I can’t see Baltimore beating out its AL east rivals until they get a new ownership group and embrace the approach the Tampa Bay Rays have taken.  So therefore the immediate answer to the 2nd question is the Nats.  I personally feel that we may reasonably expect a playoff run in 2013.  Philadelphia will be aging and saddled with several major contracts (they have $86M committed to just FOUR guys for 2013 right now, and those four guys will be 36, 33, 34 and 34.  ouch) and could be caught at the top of the division.  Atlanta will still be strong, but the Nats seem to be built to peak starting in 2013.  (Boswell says the Nats have a higher ceiling and then goes on a tangent about the fan base and attendance).

Q: Would the Nats be doing themselves a disservice by trading Marquis, Livan and Gorzelanny and replacing them with lesser AAA pitchers?  Why trade veterans if they’re winning?

A: (before starting, lets discuss.  Livan is an absolute steal at $1M/year and Gorzelanny is under arbitration control for 2 more seasons.  I seriously doubt either is traded).  So lets talk about Marquis.  Yes you should absolutely trade Marquis.  Several reasons:

• He’s in a contract year and is pitching better than he would be once he gets paid.
• He’s on the wrong side of 30 and has value now.
• Did everyone forget how bad he was in 2010?
• Any contract he signs will be difficult to reap the value of as it plays out.
• He’s not an Elias typeA or typeB pitcher, so if we lose him to free agency we’ll get zero compensation.
• We’re not winning the world series this year, therefore….
• All losing teams trade off veterans at the trade deadline for prospects.  And we should too.

(Boswell thinks the 7/31 trade market is softening and that the Nats won’t take any offers, and everyone stays.  I doubt that, based on what we were getting last year for the likes of Cristian Guzman).

Q: Are the Nats (especially Desmond and Werth) taking too many first pitch fastballs?

A: Hard to answer this without empirical evidence.  Boswell thinks the team should have altered its approach against a weak starting pitcher and not let him get into so many pitcher’s counts.  Fair enough.

Q: What’s the longest someone has employed this pitcher-batting-8th lineup?

A: It has to be the Cardinals, who ran it for nearly an entire season.  Who else uses it?  (Boswell went off on Werth’s splits since going to leadoff).

It is good to have the Face of the Franchise back. Photo unknown credit via fantasyknuckleheads.com

The Nats finally get Ryan Zimmerman back into a suddenly potent lineup, and continue their longest winning streak in several years.  How’d our guys fare heading into the weekend Interleague series with the Orioles?

Good

• Livan Hernandez pitched perhaps his best game in a Nats uniform on June 15th (box/gamer) against the powerful St. Louis lineup.  A 3-hit shutout.  Three errors and 4 bombs from his improving offense definitely helped, but he would have won this game even with his typical crummy run support.  Game score on the night: 87.  Nice.  (Verlander‘s no hitter on May 7th scored a 90, for comparison purposes).  For a nice overview of the Bill James Gamescore, and a list of the greatest pitching performances in National’s history, read Zuckerman‘s piece here.
• John Lannan continues to look like a different pitcher than earlier this season, throwing his sixth straight quality start in the St. Louis series finale on 6/16 (box/gamer).  He was denied the spoils of victory though, with Danny Espinosa‘s walkoff 3-run shot giving Burnett a victory.  The win pulled the Nats out of last place in the NL east for the first time this late in the season since perhaps 2005.
• While not quite as dominant as his past few starts, Jordan Zimmermann threw yet another quality start in saturday 6/18’s game versus Baltimore (box/gamer).  He went 6 1/3, giving up 2 runs on 8 hits for his 9th consecutive quality start.  In that time he’s driven his ERA from 4.55 to its current 3.08, good enough for 12th in the NL as of 6/19.  Can we say “second Ace” yet?

Bad

• Jason Marquis somehow willed his way out of 12 hits in less than 6 innings without giving up a dozen runs, settling for 4 against the Orioles on friday night (box/gamer).  The Orioles certainly did not hit well with RISP, and it cost them as the Nats bats continued to be hot and they extended their winning streak.
• Tom Gorzelanny‘s return from the DL was poor: he failed to get out of the 5th inning and got pounded by the Orioles to end the Nats 8-game winning streak on 6/19 (box/gamer).  He gave up 10 hits for 5 runs (4 earned) on the afternoon.  No strikeouts for the team’s leading k/9 guy, making you wonder if he’s rushed back from his injury.  His velocity seemed ok and he was pitching to contact … but the Orioles aren’t exactly a weak-hitting team.  We’ll have to hope for a stronger start next time out.

Starter Trends: Lannan and Zimmermann continue their hot streaks, Livan continues his yo-yo-ing of performances, and Marquis gets a win on a day he got hit around pretty badly.

MLB Trends (through gorzelanny 6/19)
Lhernandez         soso,soso,good,bad,great
Marquis                soso,good,good,good,bad
Lannan                  great,good,good,good,good
Zimmermann     good,good,good,great,good
Gorzelanny         good,bad,soso,bad->dl,bad

Relievers of Note

• Boy its nice to see a bullpen full of shut-down arms.  A quick glance at the ERA+ stats of our bullpen as of 6/19 offers up some pretty dominant figures.  Storen-159, Clippard-197, Rodriguez-219, Coffey-183, Mattheus-infinite (he’s yet to give up a run in two appearances).  Only Balester and Burnett have sub 100 figures.  The ERA+ is a bit deceptive for certain people (for example, Doug Slaten has a 179 figure despite a god-awful WHIP and a horrible inherited runners-scoring track record) but for the most part does a good job characterizing the performance of pitchers over the long haul.

Thoughts on the offense

• Rick Ankiel can’t seem to catch a break this season, going back on the DL to let a strained rib cage muscle heal properly.  The move was fortuitous for the Nats, who needed to activate Tom Gorzelanny to make his 6/20 start and offers a stay of execution for (likely) Brian Bixler on the active roster.
• 6 of the 8 starting hitters for this team now feature OPS+ stats > 100.  Only Desmond and Bernadina (who just missed out with a 95 OPS+) are struggling to join the hit parade.
• More importantly for our power-starved team, with 43% of the season gone we’ve got 4 players on pace to eclipse 20 homers on the season (Werth, Nix, Morse and Espinosa), and Zimmerman may pick up the pace and threaten that same mark.  Espinosa is noteworthy as the team leader, currently on pace for 27-28 homers during his rookie season, from the 2nd base position.  He may become a very valuable player indeed.

Are we about to see the last of Yunesky Maya? Photo: Al Bello/Getty Images via thenatsblog.com

In 5 starts last year; Yunesky Maya was 0-3 with a 5.88 era, a 1.577 whip and a very bad 69 ERA+.  The team lost all 5 games he pitched and he didn’t come close to even recording a quality start.

He was any one of a number of excuses.  He was “rusty.”  He was “rushed to the majors.”  He was “homesick” and he “missed his family.”  He was suffering from a “lack of competition.”  All those points were true.  The real test for Maya would be spring training 2011.

He failed to make the rotation out of the spring this past March, but you can’t fault him there.  The only rotational guy really in any jeopardy of not making the rotation (by virtue of contract or option status) was Jordan Zimmermann, and even then it was only if he was hurt.  So he (by some accounts) sulked to AAA and got pounded his first few starts before sucking it up and starting to pitch like a pro.  Because of Detwiler‘s sudden lack of performance in AAA, Maya was first to be called up to make a spot start when Gorzelanny got hurt.

All the 2010 excuses are now out the window.  He’s had a full spring, he’s rested, he should be in playing shape, and he had a bunch of AAA starts.  So, what happened?

He got lit up.  Again.

• 5/29: 6 hits and 2 walks in 4 2/3 innings.  His team bailed him out for a ND.
• 6/3: another 6 hits and 3 more walks in 4 innings plus.  His bullpen failed him and made his line look worse than it was, but still.  He took a loss and dropped his era to 8.00.
• 6/8: He actually looked great.  6ip, 4 hits, 1 run, albeit against a weaker hitting San Francisco team.  He got an early hook and his bullpen blew the game for him.
• 6/14: The coup-de-grace.  Finally going against a decent hitting team (St. Louis), Maya got pounded like a bullpen pitcher.  Only a 6run 7th inning from his offense bailed him out and gave him a ND.

Those first two starts were against San Diego and Arizona, two of the weakest hitting teams in the league.  He was clearly nibbling at the strike zone instead of commanding his pitches.  His one quality start was against San Francisco, also a weak hitting team (man that NL west just can’t hit!).  But notice what happened when he went up against a lineup of proven hitters: Pujols homer, Berkman homer, Rasmus rbi-double.  Thank god Holliday is hurt.

With Gorzelanny having finished a rehab start and looking to come back, Maya has been optioned back to AAA.

One of the reasons we drafted Maya was because of his reported “93-94” mph fastball.  That, as it turns out, as proven to be a complete myth.  Here’s his pitch f/x links for his 2011 starts:

• 5/29: 89.24mph average, a MAX speed of only 91.7.  He only looks like he even broke 90mph a handful of times on the night.
• 6/3: 88.7 average and ONLY 89.4 as a max.  89.4 as a max fastball for a right-handed starter in the major leagues?
• 6/8: 88.6 average, 90.6 max.  And this was his best game.
• 6/14: 89.1 average, max of 91.1.  The announcers said he had no movement, his fastball was flat, he was missing out over the plate and he had no control.

Yeah, he throws a gazillion different pitches.  Pitch f/x distinguishes between 6 of them, but he varies his arm slot on his fastballs and curves for even more variety.    But clearly he’s not throwing 93-94.  Whoever quoted that speed was probably on a fast gun at a stadium or was working on commission.

He’s had two shots at the big leagues and has badly underperformed both times.  If he had better stuff or commanded his pitches better, then his lack of velocity wouldn’t matter as much (see Hernandez, Livan as Exhibit 1-a).  But he doesn’t (have command), so he can’t (get around a lack of velocity).  Unfortunately for Maya and the team, it looks like his contract may be a bust.  When he goes back to AAA, it may be for good.  Perhaps he’ll make for a long-man/mop-up guy at some point.  But his career as a prospective Nationals starter seems done.

tation

Jordan Zimmermann is pitching like the "2nd ace" that we all have hoped for. Photo AP/Manuel Malce-Ceneta

The news this rotation is that Jason Marquis will drop his appeal of his undeserved 5-game suspension and serve it out.  Reason?  Because an off day in the schedule allows the rest of the starters to go on normal rest and Marquis will just move back in the rotation.  So next cycle will only have four of the five pitchers reviewed.

Good

• Jason Marquis pitched an efficient game on 6/9 (box/gamer) getting his 7th win.  6ip 3hits 1run 5k 3bb.
• John Lannan throws his fourth excellent start in a row on 6/11 (box/gamer) to get the win.  He’s now thrown four straight games with 0 or 1 run allowed and has lowered his season ERA to 3.60.  Line: 6 1/3, 6hits, 1run, 1k and 2 bbs.  Not a lot of Ks, but he didn’t need them.
• Jordan Zimmermann threw perhaps the best game any starter has thrown this year on 6/12 in San Diego (box/gamer).  7pm, 4 hits, 1 walk 0 runs and 10 strikeouts.  Too bad his team couldn’t score him any runs, so the win was left for Todd Coffey to clean up.  As was pointed out in another blog, his game score on the night was better than Strasburg‘s debut 14-k game last June.  This is Zimmermann’s 8th straight quality start, and his third straight start going 7 complete and giving up 0 or 1 runs.  You can’t ask more than that out of a starter.

Bad

• So it goes for Livan Hernandez: some good, some bad.  His start on 6/8 (box/gamer) was definitely in the bad category, getting peppered for 9 hits and 6 runs by the light-hitting Padres.
• Yunesky Maya certainly pitched his last Nationals game on 6/14 (box/gamer) for a while, and it was indicative of his previous outings.  He failed to finish 5, gave up 6 runs on 9 hits and looked completely overmatched against a good hitting team.  Stay tuned for a Maya-specific post coming up…

Starter Trends (last 5 starts only).  Lannan rebounding nicely, as is Marquis.  Zimmermann has been outer-worldly, while Maya is destined for a return to AAA.  Marquis continues to improve his trade value.

• Lhernandez      good,soso,soso,good,bad
• Marquis             bad,soso,good,good,good
• Lannan               bad,great,good,good,good
• Zimmermann  good,good,good,good,great
• Maya                   bad,soso,good,bad

Relievers of Note and other News.

• A recent spate of sub-par outings by guys in the bullpen has the team over-relying on Tyler Clippard and Drew Storen for late inning success.  We need to get Sean Burnett back in the saddle and pitching the way he did last year.  However the addition of the next guy may help.
• Ryan Mattheus gets his long awaited shot at the majors, having been added to the 40-man on 6/10/10.  Mattheus has been pitching in the minors since 2003, was our trade bounty for Joe Beimel in 2009 from the Rockies, and has fully come back from Tommy John surgery.  We were sitting at 39/40 on the 40-man after Broderick‘s dfa, so no corresponding move was needed.  His stuff looked pretty nasty during his debut on 6/14; he had a couple of Ks and looked pretty confident.  Per pitch f/x, he averaged 93 and hit 94.5 mph on his fastball and showed a huge gap between his fastball and off-speed stuff.  I’m not sure I believe that he showed 4 pitches (fast, curve, slider, change) but he definitely showed 2 fastballs (a 2 -seamer and 4-seamer) that both showed life, and he’s got a Clippard-esque delta from fastball to changeup.  If Mattheus turns into Clippard v2.0, I’d be very happy.
• Mattheus replaces Cole Kimball, who has “right shoulder inflammation”  and went on the 15-day DL.  Kimball has been pretty effective thus far, but is walking guys far too often and the rest may do him some good.  But as is apt to happen to guys getting their first shot at the bigs, he has been in pain since April and failed to tell anyone about it.  Now he’s got such bad rotator cuff inflammation he may not pitch for weeks.  Well, at least we get to see what Mattheus can do.
• Tom Gorzelanny pitched a rehab start in Syracuse on 6/13, putting him in line to re-take his rotational spot during this next cycle.  Per Ben Goessling, Gorzelanny is already back with the team and is ready to go.  Based on Maya’s last outing, I’m guessing Gorzelanny will be activated sunday morning to make his next start.

I’ve a bit behind on these rotation reviews, having captured the data but not really done any analysis.  Here’s the good/bad/soso from the 12th and 13th cycle.

During the 13th Rotation cycle, our crew had perhaps its best 5-day run since the first week of the season.  All five starts were strong.  Even Maya had a strong start, the first of his major league career.

Good

• Livan Hernandez was strong through 7 but gets loss on 6/4 (box/gamer).   Only 4 hits thru 7complete but his offense disappeared.
• Jason Marquis was excellent until he got ejected in rather ridiculous fashion on 6/5 (box/gamer).  He was ejected in a highly charged game featuring lots of HBPs and other bad blood between teams, but there’s just no way he was purposely hitting a guy on an 0-2 count.
• John Lannan looked great on 6/6 (box/gamer) but bullpen blew it.  7 innings, 4 hits and only 1 run.
• Jordan Zimmermann threw his 7th straight quality start on 6/7 (box/gamer).
• Yuniesky Maya had his best MLB start, by far, on 6/8 (box/gamer).  He got an early hook though and Burnett blew the game for him.

Relievers of Note News.

• The Nats placed Doug Slaten on the DL, called up Craig Stammen.  Slaten complained of “shooting elbow pain” that has lasted for 2 weeks, but one could see this as the continuation a convenient trend of the Nats using the DL to hide off their underperforming players.

The 12th rotation cycle started on a blisteringly hot Memorial day at the park, where the temperatures neared 100.  The Phillies were in town, which meant an invasion of Roy Halladay-jersey wearing obnoxiousness.  To make matters worse, the Nats were lined up to go against the #1-2-3 starters on the best rotation ever constructed.  How’d we fare?

Good

• Jason Marquis pitched very effectively while his teammates battered Cliff Lee for 6 runs on 5/31 (box/gamer) and he got the well deserved victory.  Line: 6 1/3, 2 runs, 8 hits, 0 walks, 4 Ks.
• John Lannan put 8 guys on in 5 1/3 innings and worked in and out of jams in pretty much every inning, but allowed only one unearned run and got his first ever victory over Philadelphia in the series finale on 6/1 (box/gamer).  A tough third game to a tough series (hot streak, two day games out of three throwing off everyone’s sleep patterns).
• Another excellent start from Jordan Zimmermann, opening up the Arizona series on 6/2 (box/gamer) with a 7inning 1run performance.  Line: 7ip, 6hits, 1run, 4ks and 1 walk.  I’d love to get an interview with Steve McCatty and find out if Zimmermann has changed his approach; he’s striking out guys at a 33% lower rate than last year.

Mediocre/Inconclusive

• Livan Hernandez opposed Roy Halladay on 5/30 (box/gamer) and did his best to keep his team in the game.  He ends up with a no decision, giving up 4 runs in 6 1/3.  He nearly pitched his way out of the game in the third, when the Phillies strung together 5 straight hits (including two solo homers).  In typical Livan fashion, he worked his way out of the jam and then pitched 3 more scoreless innings.  The offense (amazingly) really got to Halladay, and its a shame the bullpen dropped the ball after getting 4 runs on the best pitcher in baseball.
• I’m not quite ready to judge Yunesky Maya‘s 2nd (and presumably last) start as completely bad.  I think he was just unlucky, and possibly the victim of a trigger-happy manager addicted to matchup managing.  Instead of letting Maya try to get out of his own jam, he brought in Doug “The firestarter” Slaten to throw three straight balls, then groove a 3-0 fastball for a bases-clearing triple.

Relievers of Note and other Pitcher News.

• Sean Burnett blew Livan’s win for him on Monday, and has really struggled this year.  Adam Kilgore reports that Riggleman is standing by his guy, which I suppose is admirable considering the distinct lack of left-handed reliever talent we have in the system right now (in case you’re wondering, that’s close to zero.  Check out our lefty-reliever depth at this link here).
• Mark Zuckerman reports that Chien-Ming Wang is (finally) ready to leave extended spring training and go out on a rehab assignment.  This means he’s going to supplant a starter, somewhere in the system.  I’d guess he’s going to Potomac to start, as they seem to have the least-performing collection of starters right now and he’d completely overmatch the younger hitters in low-A.  The implication of his going out on a rehab assignment is this: he only gets 30 days in the minors (probably about 6 starts) before the Nats have to make a decision on what to do with him.  He has no minor league options, so in 30 days he either joins the 25-man roster, goes back on the DL or is DFA’d.  After all we’ve invested in him (and for the sake of his career), I’m hoping he still has something left.

Thoughts on the offense (dated 5/31, but still applicable right now).

All of a sudden, we have what looks like a halfway decent offense.  As of 5/31, here’s the OPS+ figures of our starting 8 out-field players:

• C: Wilson Ramos, 105
• 1B: Michael Morse, 128
• 2B: Danny Espinosa: 112
• SS: Ian Desmond: 73
• 3B: Jerry Hairston Jr: 85
• LF: Laynce Nix: 148
• CF: Roger Bernadina: 75
• RF: Jayson Werth: 117

When Ryan Zimmerman comes back (he’s sitting at 185 through 37 plate appearances) we’d have 6 of 8 positional players being above the mlb average at the plate.  That’s really good 🙂

I forgot to publish my previous edition of this.  So its located below.  Meanwhile here’s the 6/20/11 edition.  I don’t think Bill’s done one of these since.  A lot of the statistics quoted were at the time of writing (6/20/11) and may be a bit dated by now.

Q: How do you think Jayson Werth has done this year, considering he hasn’t had Ryan Zimmerman, Adam LaRoche or a productive leadoff hitter in the lineup for most of the season so far?

A: He’s barely above 100 OPS+, after a number of seasons in the league top 10.  His slash line: .232/.332/.409.  I think he should be doing better no doubt and is finding out how tough it is to lead a team without much in the way of lineup protection.  (Ladson thinks he’s doing fine, when you take into account his leadership in the clubhouse).

Q: Should the Nationals trade a valuable reliever like Tyler Clippard to get a hitter that could improve the team’s offense?

A: The Nationals should make any trade, involving any player, if the return is deemed worth it.  Perhaps not Zimmerman, Strasburg or Harper, but anyone else is fair game.  That being said, I don’t think Clippard should be traded unless he fetches quite a haul, because of his importance to our bullpen.  So perhaps its a self fulfilling prophesy; we won’t trade him unless he gets valued like a front-end starter, but he’s merely an 8th inning reliever.  (Ladson more or less agrees with what i’ve written).

Q: Should Espinosa start hitting strictly right-handed?

A: Here’s his 2011 splits, and they’re pretty distinct.  He’s hitting .206 as a lefty, .315 as a righty.  But, look at his BABIP split.  .217 as a lefty and .352 as a righty.  So he’s been amazingly unlucky as a left-handed batter so far.  Despite what his splits look like, you don’t purposely get rid of a lefty-capable hitter.  He’s a rookie after all (lest we forget), and can improve his switch hitting abilities.  (Ladson agrees; let him continue to switch hit).

Q: Do you see the Nationals making many major moves at the Trade Deadline?

A: Realistically, I can see the team moving a couple of pieces (perhaps Marquis and Coffey).  I could also see them make a couple of waiver-wire trades very late in the season (Cora and Hairston).  I don’t see them acquiring any MLB players or moving any prospects.   If players like Ankiel or Gaudin were playing better, they’d be trade targets too.    (Ladson for some reason thinks the team will try to acquire a lead-off hitter and a starting pitcher, mentioning Gorzelanny as the one to be replaced.  Can’t see either move at this point in the season.  Getting a lead-off hitter will be an off-season task).

Q: Why would the Nats trade Jason Marquis? He solidifies the third spot in the rotation for 2012.

A: For all of these reasons:

• He’s in a contract year and is pitching better than he would be once he gets paid.
• He’s on the wrong side of 30 and has value now.
• Did everyone forget how bad he was in 2010?
• Any contract he signs will be difficult to reap the value of as it plays out.
• He’s not an Elias typeA or typeB pitcher, so if we lose him to free agency we’ll get zero compensation.
• We’re not winning the world series this year, therefore….
• All losing teams trade off veterans at the trade deadline for prospects.  And we should too.

2012’s rotation could very easily be the same as 2011’s, except you replace Marquis with Strasburg.

(Ladson thinks Marquis stays if we’re in the playoff race, and is dealt if we’re not.  Makes sense to me).

Q: Michael Morse has played well at first base. Is there any chance the Nationals will trade or release Adam LaRoche to make sure Morse stays at the position?

A: Release?  no way.  He’s owed a good chunk of change for 2012 ($8M plus another $1M buyout of his 2013 option).  Yes Morse has been good at 1st, but I think you move him back to left and look for Laroche back at 1st in 2012.  LaRoche is better in the field and was a pretty consistent 25hr, 100rbi guy before his injury.  Because of his injury, there’s practically no trade market for him now.  So we’re stuck with him for 2012.  (Ladson agrees with my sentiments on LaRoche).

Q: Do you think we might persuade Ivan Rodriguez to join the Giants to get some pitching in return?

A: It would make sense, but the Giants seem to be making do without Posey (they are in 1st place after all).  And they’ve made public statements saying they weren’t going to make a panic trade.  Pudge isn’t going to fetch all that much, perhaps a prospect in the low minors outside the top 20 BA rankings.  For that, its worth keeping him for 2011 and seeing if maybe even he sticks around in a backup role.  (Ladson agrees)

Q: Regarding Matt Stairs — aren’t Pudge, Laynce Nix and Marquis better designated-hitter options during Interleague Play?

A: Yes they are (well, except Marquis.  Come on; he’s a good hitting pitcher, not a good hitter).  And I continue to be amazed that Stairs is on this roster.  He is now 5/42 for the season with one extra base hit and is routinely getting fooled by mediocre middle-bullpen guys.  I believe he needs to be released/turned into a bench coach/something and have a more versatile guy brought up.  Looking at Syracuse hitters, Antonelli gives some middle infield flexiblity, Marrero is already on the 40-man and can be brought up without a corresponding move, and Aubrey has MLB experience and can play 1B.  Stairs is obviously a good guy but at the expense of a 25-man roster spot?  (Ladson says, yes those guys are probably better options).

This is a bit of an older Inbox edition (I was out of town when it dropped, and just saved the link), but I love answering questions that people don’t ask me about the Nats.  :-).  Reading from above, you’ll see some duplicated, repeated questions (especially about Pudge and Stairs).

Here’s Ladson’s 6/5/11 inbox and my answers to his questions.

Q: If the Nats were to trade Ivan Rodriguez, who do you think would be the new backup?
A: Ramos would start and I believe the team would call up Carlos Maldonado from Syracuse to be the once-a-week backup.  Maldonado has MLB experience and would know his role.  I would NOT call up Jesus Flores, who I would rather continue playing full time in AAA building up value.  (Ladson thinks it would be Flores, which I think would be a disservice to his career to have him come up and ride the bench in the Majors)

Q: What do you think the Nats will do if Matt Stairs continues his subpar hitting? Could they release him or just package him in a trade to get rid of him?
A: I *think* the Nats will just continue to let him eat a 25-man spot.  The argument is that there’s not really anyone in AAA who is earning a trip to the majors and Riggleman likes having Stairs around as a pseudo-bench coach.

I *wish* they’d just cut him and bring up someone like Chris Marrero, even if he’s not deserving, to get some more roster flexibility and to have someone who can actually play the field competently.  What Trade value does Stairs have right now?  Who wants to trade for a guy who is hitting (as of 6/13/11) 5 for 40 on the season?  His OPS+ is 16.  16?!

(Ladson asks who we’d replace him with, citing this as the reason he’s sticking around.  But he notes that Stairs could be in trouble once inter-league play is finished).

Q: Every time you answer a question about the Nats’ leadoff spot, you never mention the names of Stephen Lombardozzi or Eury Perez. Are these guys not as good as their numbers suggest, or are they that far away?
A: I think the answer needs some context.  Are we talking about leadoff for 2011 or lead-off for the future?

Lead-off in 2011 is a lost cause.  The team gambled that Nyjer Morgan would return to his 2009 numbers and chose to forget all the incidents that turned him into a character liability last season.  Suddenly we were faced with having no natural leadoff hitter in the last week of March.  Now we’re cobbling together the likes of Bernadina, Desmond, or Espinosa at the top of the lineup, none of which are good enough or suited enough for leadoff.

Longer term. Lombardozzi is an interesting possibility.  His career slash line in the minors is .297/.372/.412, and that’s been incredibly consistent throughout every level (he has almost identical numbers at every level).    He plays 2b, where suddenly we’re rather overloaded with the very good Danny Espinosa, the probable destination of 1st round draft pick Anthony Rendon, and 2009 2nd round draft pick Jeff Kobernus (though he’s struggling in Potomac as a 3rd year pro and may be a draft bust).  Perhaps the best case is moving Espinosa to SS, Lombardozzi to 2B, Rendon to 1st or left and either trading or making Desmond super-utility guy.

As for Eury Perez, he’s one of the few DSL grads hanging around in our minor league system right now.  He’s in Potomac right now but has seen a precipitous drop in his OBP at the high-A level.   As of 6/13 he has only THREE walks for the entire season (?).  Inarguably though he has speed (64 Sbs last year) and would be the perfect lead-off/center field type.  But…. isn’t Bryce Harper being groomed to play center?  Werth presumably occupies right field for the next 7 years, and Harper is athletic enough to play center (and would be a ton more valuable there).  If Perez is a plus-defender he’d be wasted in left.

My ideal 2013 lineup if everything goes well: Lombardozzi (2b), Espinosa (SS), Zimmerman (3b), Harper (cf), Werth (rf), Rendon (1b), Ramos (c), Desmond? (lf).  That’s some potential fire-power.

(Ladson succinctly agress with what i’ve said; prospects are far away, we have nobody right now, and Rizzo may make a move).

Q: When do you think we will see Ross Detwiler this season?
A: Excellent question.  Can the answer be “never?”  Detwiler has taken two massive steps backwards this year.  Instead of finally being healthy and ready to produce at the MLB level, he’s been the worst of 5 starters in Syracuse all season.  Yes, his last two starts have been quality starts, but before that he had a string of seven straight starts where he gave up 4 or more earned runs.  This for a first round draft pick who was supposed to be featuring in the majors.

I suspected he is or was hurt.  Because he was lights out in his first start of the AAA season.  Now I just don’t know whats going to happen.  Maya was the first call up to replace an injured starter, and will most likely return.  Perhaps Detwiler gets another shot if we trade Marquis or if we have another injury, but honestly Tom Milone has earned the call up far more than Detwiler. (Ladson agrees, but predicts a 9/1 callup if Detwiler improves.  duh).

Q: Nyjer Morgan was a fantastic leadoff hitter. Any chance they make a deal with Milwaukee and bring him back to D.C. where he belongs?
A: Another humorous question; this one made me laugh out loud it was so absurd.  Rizzo wanted to get rid of him so badly he took back a low-A minor leaguer with no future as trade collateral.  Morgan was a fantastic lead off hitter for the last half of 2009.  When he finally got a shot to be a full time player in 2010, he struggled badly.  His numbers are great in 2011 … but he’s a part time player.  We’re moving on.  (Ladson agrees, saying Morgan is better than what we have, but that he’s not that good a leadoff hitter).

Q: What do you think of Jim Riggleman as a manager?
A: Interesting question. I think Riggleman has done a decent job stabilizing the bullpen and getting guys to understand their roles. I think he is a bit old-fashioned in the way he manages from time to time, pulling starters a bit early to play the matchup game but also leaving guys in a batter too long. I think the fact that this team is near .500 given that they’ve gotten a grand total of 8 games out of their best hitter, their major FA acquisition is batting .236 and their first-baseman/clean up hitter is out for the season is relatively amazing.  He may be perfect for the up and coming rookie crop we expect, based on his experience and no-nonesense approach.  He doesn’t have a very good managerial track record though, so one mediocre season when the front office expects greatness and he’ll be out.  (Ladson thinks he’s an excellent manager and thinks he deserves to have his option picked up).

From Boswell’s live chat on Monday 6/13/11.  I’ll skip the non Nats questions.  As always, the questions below are mostly paraphrased from the submissions he chose.

Q: Should the Nats consider keeping Jason Marquis?
A: No way.  He’s in a contract year and is performing fantastically.  Guess what his previous best pitching year was?  That’d be his LAST contract year, in 2009.  He’s on the wrong side of 30, you’d be paying for 2011 without giving any context to what happened in 2010, you’d be blocking one of the gazillion young arms we have coming up, and you’d have to pay him much more than his current $7.5M/per contract.

You trade him at the deadline for prospects and bring up Detwiler, Meyers, or even Peacock to see what you have.  That’s what last place teams do with their soon-to-be-expiring veteran contracts.  (Boswell agrees, citing the Riggleman blowup as evidence that he’s out the door soon)

Q: Are the Nats a centerfielder and a competent starter away from being competitive?
A: Not quite.  I think we’re a center-fielder, a marquee first baseman, the return of Zimmerman, and TWO good starters on top of a healthy Strasburg and the continued development of Zimmermann away from being really competitive.  (Boswell says that we’d be “crazy not to be optimistic about the Nats” without any real analysis on this question).

Q: Is Jayson Werth the long term answer as the teams leadoff/center fielder?
A: I’m not sure if this question is a joke or not.  No, of course Werth isn’t a lead-off hitter, or a center fielder for that matter.  Riggleman was just mixing up the lineups and put Werth first.  He has far too much power to waste in a leadoff role.  He’s a RBI man, not a table-setter.  Long term this team puts Bryce Harper between Zimmerman and Werth’s right handed bats in the middle of the order and let the power game come to them.  Meanwhile if someone Desmond doesn’t pan out as a leadoff/middle infielder type you find one who can.  Harper should be groomed to play center so enable someone else to lead off.  (Boswell agrees: Werth can fill in at center, but he’s not the long term answer.  And, he’s certainly not a leadoff hitter).

Q: Would a rotation of Strasburg, Zimmermann, Lannan, Marquis and Gorzelanny be a playoff rotation?

A: Wishful thinking, I suspect.  The last few world series winners have shown you need multiple Aces and otherwise good starting pitching to have a shot.  Strasburg is a legitimate “Ace,” easily one of the best 20 pitchers in the game when he is healthy.  But … he’s only been healthy for a few weeks thus far.  We’re a long ways towards counting on him being Roy Halladay-dominant every 5 days.  Zimmermann is looking good … but he’s still up and down.  Lannan, Marquis and Gorzelanny are all 5th starters on most other squads (as is Livan for that matter).  To be successful you need two #1s, a #2 and no worse than a #3 type guy to go with your proverbial 5th starter.

Look at (say) Atlanta’s rotation right now: Lowe, Jurrjens, Hansen, Hudson, Beachy.   Jurrgens is pitching at an all-star level, Hansen is pitching even better.  The worst guy this year is Hudson, who is a work-horse and would be the National’s ace.  Plus they have two major prospects waiting in the wings in Minor and Tehran.  5 of these 7 named pitchers are 25 years of age or younger; the Braves are set for a long time.  This is what the Nationals need to emulate.

Boswell didn’t really answer the question, just talked about the pipeline of players.  I like the pipeline too, trust me, but prospects aren’t quite the same as demonstrated production on the MLB field.  That’s what we need.

Q: Should our broadcasters reference our Montreal past more frequently?

A: Eh.  I hear this complaint a bunch from other bloggers, about the fact that the current regime pays little attention to its Montreal roots.  Personally I don’t think its that big a deal.  There were two iterations of Washington teams prior to the Nats and that’s the natural historical teams to reference.  I’m sure the Texas Rangers don’t really note that they were the Washington Senators and that their previous slime-ball owners basically stole the team away from Washington in the middle of the night.  (Boswell told a story about writing about bike races).

Q: Does Jayson Werth seem like he’s stressed?

A: Probably so.  First year in a massive contract with all the ink spilled about it over the off-season, then your primary lineup protection goes down 8 games into the season.  I’d be stressed too.  The dude is intense, and playing with intensity on a losing team has to be a massive drag.  (Boswell’s answer is borderline mean when discussing Werth’s production this season.  He’s way way down on projections for rbis, extra base hits, etc).

Q: Did the selection of Anthony Rendon (and the lack of announcing his position) mean to send a message to Ryan Zimmerman about his future contract talks?

A: No, and that’s a ridiculous assertion.  There is zero chance the Nats were thinking anything except “oh my gosh I can’t believe Rendon fell to us” when they took him.  To think that the team was somehow projecting 4 years into the future in the 5 minutes they had to do draft pick analysis is crazy.

Rendon’s current position is irrelevant.  If he hits in the low minors, he’ll be promoted to the high minors.  If he continues to hit in the high minors, the team will find a place for him.  A good 3rd baseman can easily transition to 2nd, 1st, or left field.  Hell, maybe they’ll make him a catcher.

(Ironically, Boswell used almost the same language I just used.  You’ll note that I don’t actually read his answers until AFTER I type up how i’d respond).

Q: Is the Marquis situation shaping up as Adam Dunn v2.0?

A: Not at all.  Adam Dunn was a type-A free agent.  Marquis is not even close to being a type-B.  We could afford to hang onto Dunn and wait out trade offers b/c we knew he’d be worth two high draft picks.  And sure enough, his two picks turned into Alex Meyers and Brian Goodwin. Marquis’ value is never going to be as high as it will be after his current stint of decent starting pitching and we should have flipped him yesterday to a team like the Yankees.  (I’m not sure Boswell answered the question… he just mentioned that the Nats have money to spend.  Whether they spend it wisely or not remains to be seen).

Q: Can the Nats beat the large-spending teams by just growing up with players such as Espinosa, Desmond, and the like?

A: Yes (see Tampa Bay Rays) but its a lot easier to grow most of your team and augment with good FAs.  I think that’s the model this team is following right now (see the attempts to sign Zack Greinke in the off season).  The problem with the grow-the-team approach is that it takes a long time.  And this team already completely blew its first 4 seasons in Washington with incompetence in the front office and in the ownership team.  Now they’re playing catch up.  See me in 2013; if we’re not in the playoff hunt in 2013, we’ll re-boot and get a new GM and basically start over again.

Q: Which of our top 4 picks will sign?

A: Great question.  I’m predicting that Rendon, Meyer and Goodwin all sign.  Goodwin will be a tricky one but he can’t possibly want to return to school after his academic issues.  The tough sign is Purke.  If Purke plays in the Cape and doesn’t show any velocity, the Nats can’t possibly offer him 1st round money, and he’ll really have no choice but to go back to school.  That’s the right thing to do professionally.  The best bet for the Nats is for Purke to show he still has mid 90s heat and we sign him to 1st round money and get possibly the steak of last 5 drafts.  (Boswell agrees).

Q: Is Jordan Zimmermann turning into our staff 1-A to Strasburg’s #1?

A: Its a little premature to annoint him to be that good of a pitcher.  He does have 8 straight quality starts and three straight fantastic starts though.   To be 1-A you have to show this kind of production all season, season-after-season.  Not for a 6 week period.  (Boswell says, “sure looks like it” and quotes stats from these last 8 starts.)

Q: Since the Nats have played so many road games thus far, can we expect a better record here on in?

A: Marginally.  Home field is worth something like 53% historically.  Perhaps some cause for optimism lays in the fact that our rotation has performed better than expected and is only getting better, and that our lineup as it stands now is far stronger than what we fielded from day one.  Ramos over Pudge (100 to 63 ops+), Morse over Laroche (136 to 53 ops+), Nix over Bernadina (139 to 75 ops+) are good starts, but getting Zimmerman back (184 vs 76 ops+ for Hairston) will be a huge help as well.   So with a better hitting team, continued good starting pitching and improving defense … maybe this team can claw its way back to .500.  (Boswell didn’t really answer the question, just talked about the bad timing of the US open and the Baltimore-Washington series being on the same weekend).

Q: Is Bryce Harper to Larry Walker a good comparison?

A: I would say, I would expect more out of Harper frankly.  Walker was a very good hitter (3 batting titles, an MVP) but questions persist about how much of his offense was due to Coors field and the launching pad he played in.  I look more for a Ken Griffey Jr. arc of performance out of Harper.  (Boswell says that David Justice is a good goal.  I think he’s shooting low).

Q: Is John Lannan part of the future of this team?

A: Great question.  Unfortunately, I think the eventual answer is going to be No.  Lannan is a good #4 or #5 starter in a good rotation.  He’s a change of pace starter on a team of hard throwers and could slot in nicely and give a playoff team 30 starts a year.  In 3 years, if we have Strasburg, Zimmermann, Solis, Cole, Ray, Meyer, Meyers and Peacock all making statements to be in the MLB rotation, there’s just no room for guys like Lannan, Gorzelanny, Maya, or Detwiler.  Its a cruel fact, but the team will be better for it.  (Boswell kind of agrees with me on the 4-5th starter bit, quotes a lot of advanced stats on Lannan, then says we should sign  him to an extension.  I disagree; I think we trade him when our kids start coming up).

Q: Are Nationals fans over-reacting when calling for the Manager’s or GM’s head right now?

A: clearly, yes.  Riggleman has gone above and beyond with the injuries and talent of this team.  Rizzo’s goal is to rebuild on a budget.  Both guys are doing as best as they can right now.  (Boswell didn’t really answer the question..)

Q: Should the Nats trade Clippard (whose name has been in the trade rumors lately?)

A: Hell no.  He’s a vital part of the bullpen, the best guy out there, and is under arbitration control for FOUR more years.  You don’t think about trading him; you sign him to an extension to lock him up.  Well, maybe not an extension, but you certainly keep him around.  (Boswell agrees).

Phew.  Almost 2000 words.  And I only wrote a third of what Boswell wrote.

Buster Olney wrote a piece (insider ESPN, sorry) on June 12th with some interesting comments on realignment and the future structure of the league.   Specifically Olney says that the players union is FOR a two-league 15-team structure, which means that it very well may happen along with the addition of a 2nd wild card (and possible draft slotting, and perhaps trading of draft picks) in each league when the next CBA ends.

How do you organize the league, if you were to move a new team into the AL?

Two proposals:

1. Two division-less 15-team leagues, with the top 5 from each league making the playoffs.  I call this the “Guarantee that Boston and the Yankees make the playoffs for the rest of time” plan.  It certainly would make for a fairer test of the long season, and would mean that a team like Toronto would actually make the playoffs every once in a while, since they’ve been winning 85-87 games and finishing fourth.  But it eliminates the whole concept of divisional play and resembles too closely the English Premier League.

2. Three 5-team divisions in each league, taking the 3 division winners and the two next best teams.  Still a plan that favors the monstrous budgets in Boston and New York, but also guarantees that the five teams that spend the most aren’t necessarily going to be the 5 teams that make the playoffs.

Who switches leagues?  It is obviously a NL team.  Perhaps its easier to start with the teams that will NOT move leagues based on history:

• Philly, Atlanta, the Mets, St Louis, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, the Cubs, San Francisco, the Dodgers.

Also, Geographically speaking the 4-team AL West is almost certainly the division that needs to be augmented, which more or less eliminates the Nats, the Marlins (despite what Olney’s sources say.  If the Marlins moved to the AL, what division would they join?), and the Brewers (despite their having already switched leagues in recent memory).

Candidates:

• Houston: Houston Chronicle (and former WP columnist) Richard Justice wrote some compelling reasons here.
• Arizona: Has a WS victory, probably not going to move, despite its WS victory seemingly accomplished on the backs of FA acquisitions.  They had the chance to move in the mid 90s and declined.  They have an AL style ball park, offensively heavy, and could fit in nicely with the existing AL west.
• Colorado: one WS appearance since inception in 1992.
• San Diego: in the NL West since inception in 1969.  Two world series appearances.  Budget constrained and would probably struggle to compete in the AL west.

Plus, if you  moved someone out of any division except the NL Central, then immediately Houston would become a member of the NL West to replace whoever left.  By moving Houston once, you end the divisional disruption.  In fact, the more you look at it, the more you realize that Houston is really the only logical candidate to move.

Downsides to this plan?  Interleague play all year.  But really, perhaps the real answer is to eliminate the whole interleague nonsense and go towards a more NFL-style schedule where the lines are blurred.  In every other pro league the two “leagues” all play each other all year.

(By the way, Rob Neyer and Jon Paul Morosi both agree; Houston must move to the AL).

DH or no DH?  Perhaps it is just time to admit the obvious and go with all DHs and eliminate pitchers from hitting altogether.  The union wants it (it keeps older sluggers employed for longer periods of time), Fans want it (nobody likes seeing a weak #8 hitter get intentionally walked to get an automatic out of a pitcher).  About the only people who do NOT want it are good-hitting hitters like Livan and NL starters who get somewhere in the range of 30-40 extra strikeouts per year facing their counter parts.

Alex Meyer leads a very very large pack of college arms in the Nats draft class. Photo via Lex18.com

I wrote this post in three parts, after each of the draft’s three days.  Hence the groupings.

Here’s a quick breakdown of the top 10 rounds.

First day observations: Wow, that’s a lot of pitching.  8 of our first 11 picks are college arms.  Not ONE high school guy.

Looking at the next 20 rounds (where there’s less of a chance the guy pans out):

In rounds 11-30, here’s some highlights:

• A grand total of 3 high schoolers.  And I’d be shocked if any of them sign based on college commitments and their relatively low draft rankings.  I could be wrong though, especially with Williams.  We’d pretty much destroy Ole Miss’ recruiting class if we took both guys who committed there.
• 11 more pitchers, making 19 out of the first 31 players we’ve drafted in 2011 arms.

Day 3: here’s rounds 31-50

Round 31-50 stats:

• 6 high schoolers, most with very little chance of signing (why sign in the mid 30s for a pittance when you can go to college, get an education and improve your draft status and bonus money?)
• 13 of the last 20 picks non-pitchers
• A number of these 30-50th round guys are college juniors, meaning they’re likely to go back to school.
• 7 more pitchers, bringing the total in the draft to 27 pitchers overall.  Only ONE high school arm.

Coincidentally, “Sue Dinem” has already updated the Draft Tracker xls (one of my favorite Nats resources online: thanks Sue!).

In terms of the first few drat picks: i’m presuming that all Scott Boras clients will NOT sign til 10 minutes before the August 15th deadline, so that means Rendon, Meyer and Goodwin we’ll see you in Viera next spring.  Purke; he’s going to be an interesting negotiation, since he turned down top10 money 2 years ago and presumably can threaten to go back to school.  His negotiations probably go down to the wire as well.  Most likely he pitches in the Cape Cod league, and if he shows he’s got any sort of velocity coming back, we’ll offer him first round money.  Otherwise he’ll return for his third year and the Nats will get a 3rd round compensation pick in 2012.  Not the best solution for us but workable if he’s completely damaged goods.

From Turnbull on down to about the 20th round, i’m guessing everyone signs, and signs fast.   We’ve got a ton of college seniors with no place else to go, and little room for bonus money negotiation.  These guys are going to sign quickly and go directly to Auburn.

I’m a bit surprised at the pitcher focus frankly.  I perceive that we’re rather thin on positional players in our low-minors right now.   Looking at Baseball America’s top 30 for the organization at the end of 2010, the breakdown was as follows:

• Outfielders (5): Harper, Perez, Hood, Burgess, Ramirez
• Catchers (2): Norris, Ramos
• Infielders (8): Espinosa, Marrero, Lombardozzi, Hague, Sanchez, Kobernus, Martinson, Moore
• Right Handed Starters (7): Cole, Peacock, Maya, Morris, Tatusko, Meyers, Holder
• Right Handed Relievers (4): Kimball, Ramirez, Carr, Pena
• Left Handed Starters(4): Solis, Ray, Milone, Rosenbaum
• Left Handed Relievers (0)

Of these 30 players, 2 have since been traded away (Morris, Burgess) while several more are now on the 25-man roster (Ramos, Espinosa, Maya for the time being and Kimball).  That leaves a breakdown of 12 positional players and 12 pitchers in the minors at the top level of BA’s analysis.  But its hard to look at most of positional players left in the minors and really say “those guys are a sure thing.”

Now we have 26 more arms to fit in, and not a bunch more hitters frankly.  The short-A and GCL are going to be stocked with arms and probably making due with what’s left in extended spring.  There’s approximately 24-26 pitcher slots to fill in short-A and GCL … but we still have a number of arms in extended spring that will be competing.  I wonder how many guys are about to get pink slips.

Get ready for an interesting summer.