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Baseball America Mid-Season Nats top 30 Prospects Update

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You can’t ask for a better pro debut from Luke Dickerson. Photo via mlb.com

Lost in the CWS and draft content shuffle, we got an updated top 30 from Baseball America last week. We don’t get too many mid-season revampings of the top 30 Prospects, especially from some of the main pundits (who have lots of other stuff to cover mid-season, like draft scouting), but Baseball America has made it happen. So here’s their 6/6/25 updated Nats top 30.

This is worth a recap post, because there’s a huge amount of change and churn here. They haven’t just graduated a couple players and moved everyone else up a slot. They’ve really given some thought to moving players around, enough so that I’m going to list where they’re ranked now and where they were back in January.

RankJan 25 RankLast NameFirst NamePosition
12SykoraTravisRHP (Starter)
23SusanaJarlinRHP (Starter)
34HouseBradySS/3B
46ClemmeyAlexLHP (Starter)
511DickersonLukeSS/CF
610LileDaylenOF (CF)
77CavalliCadeRHP (Starter)
85KingSeaverSS
98LomavitaCalebC
1012Hassell IIIRobertOF (CF)
1113BennettJakeLHP (Starter)
1222MoralesYohandy3B
1315FelizAngel3B/SS
1440+HenryColeRHP (Starter)
1529LordBradRHP (Starter)
169WallaceCayden2B/3B
1714BazzellKevinC/3B
1817CortesiaBrayanSS
1925StuartTylerRHP (Starter)
2036KentJacksonLHP (Starter)
2126HernandezDanielC
2219LaraAndryRHP (Starter)
2340+RileyCornelioRHP (Starter)
2435Tejada Jr. YoelRHP (Reliever)
2540+MotaJorgelysSS
2616PinckneyAndrewOF (Corner)
2740+DavianGarciaRHP (Starter)
2823GreenElijahOF (CF)
2928VaqueroCristianOF (CF)
3024CranzRobertRHP (Reliever)

So, lets get into it:

  • Jan 2025’s #1 Crews has graduated, of course.
  • 2-3-4 from January just moved up a spot each, making Sykora our #1 on their list. It’s the first time Sykora has officially been #1 on any list that I track or am aware of.
  • Seaver King, despite being promoted recently takes a dip on their list, dropping from #5 to #8. Fair. He’s not had the glitzy pro debut we were hoping for.
  • Dickerson gets a huge bump with his impressive pro debut, which has already resulted in a promotion.
  • Lile gets credit for his excellent 2025 season, which has resulted in his graduation to the majors, and gets ranked at #6, the highest he’s been on any list either. He hasn’t been hitting necessarily awesome in his majors stint, but lots of players struggle in their debut.
  • Morales, as we discussed ad naseum during the off-season, had been relatively unfairly dropped on a lot of lists for a hand injury that we know takes a while to come back from … well he’s back. He’s now in AAA, and BA jumped him 10 spots from January to June.
  • Cole Henry! Outside BA’s top 40 six months ago, now he’s firmly in the MLB bullpen and listed at #14 here, one spot ahead of Lord, which … well, come on, who is more valuable to the MLB team? A guy who throws an inning every other day or a guy who has proven he can pitch in the rotation or in relief at the MLB level? Honestly, it won’t matter in a couple of months b/c both seem set to graduate from the prospect ranks soon anyway.
  • Wallace gets dumped a slew of spots. Fair. He’s struggled this year and has done nothing to show any improvement or any push upwards.
  • Bazzell only dropped a few spots: surprised he’s not penalized more for his slow pro start
  • Jackson Kent gets due recognition for the solid start to his pro career in High-A.
  • Riley Cornelio makes his debut on any prospect list anywhere, coming in at #23. After years of mediocre ERAs and stats, he’s put it together so far in 2025, and is now in AA.
  • Yoel Tejeda, the FSU draftee from last year, is dealing in Low-A. The above table lists him as a Reliever initally, but he’s proven to be a solid starter so far in 2025. He may get a promotion to High-A at the mid-season at this rate.
  • Davian Garcia is another Low-A 2024 starter who’s holding his own. His numbers aren’t quite as good as Tejeda, but the FGCU 6th rounder certainly has promise. Also as with Cornelio, this is first time on any prospect list.
  • Pinckney and Green take understandable dips on the rankings. Though Pinckney is in AAA, he’s struggling. Green has been mysteriously non-transacted to XST, perhaps the team finally fed up with his 2K/game rate.
  • Super reliever prospect Cranz, inexplicably ranked #24 in January, hangs on to the last spot at #30. I’m not sure why they dumped him so far: he’s got a .108 BAA so far as the closer in Low-A.

Highest guys on my ranking not to be mentioned here:

  • Hurtado our big 2024 IFA bonus guy, still in DSL. Its early.
  • Glove-first SS guys like Ramirez Jr., Made; still not really hitting.
  • Armando Cruz, our big 2021 IFA bonus guy, struggling in Wilmington.
  • Alvarez; may have been opening day starter in AAA but seems not to really be a prospect.
  • Brzycky: BA had him #21 earlier this year and he’s been promoted; why dump him based on 11 MLB innings? He hasn’t graduated. I dunno.
  • 4-A types like Baker, Nunez, Chapparo. I think BA thinks of them as spare parts as opposed to prospects.
  • Millas: #18 in January, not out of the top 30. Interesting. I know theres plenty of people who think Millas is better than Adams who read this … he’s basically done nothing this year.
  • Lastly, most of the guys in the BA 31-40 range from January are nowhere to be found on the new list; probably still treading water in that range on their internal lists.

Written by Todd Boss

June 12th, 2025 at 1:35 pm

Posted in Prospects

Post CWS Super Regionals Check-in with 1-1 candidates and Draft link content

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Could Kade Anderson push his way into 1-1 discussion all of a sudden? Photo via MLB.com

Here’s our eighth check-in on the 1-1 candidates this spring. This week summarizes the post season play for our top prospects (conference tourneys, regionals, and super regionals) and talks about the mocks and other draft content that’s popped up lately. High Schoolers are done, with zero new news to report about the top prep candidates.

Important Draft related news and notes, plus Mocks and Draft rankings that have published since our last posting, are listed below:

  • Keith Law at the Athletic released his 2025 Draft board top 100 ranking on 5/21/25. He ranks them Holliday, Doyle, Arnold, Arquette, Houston. He has Hernandez all the way down at #21.
  • Law then held a Chat on May 22nd where we got his thoughts on some 1-1 related stuff.
  • ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel posted his latest mock draft on 5/28/25. He goes Holliday, Doyle, Anderson, Arquette, and Willits. He has Hernandez falling to #9, but also admits he could go anywhere inbetween.
  • Baseball America released their 2025 Draft Top 500, adding another 100 names from their April edition. This is probably the last draft board they’ll release. They’ve updated their ranks, which i’ve cross-correlated in the player block below. They now go Holliday, Hernandez, Willits, Arquette, Arnold.
  • MLBPipeline updated their Draft board on 5/28/25, expanding it to 200. There’s been significant movement in the top 10, with Anderson flying up the board from #9 a month ago to #3 now. Top 5: Holliday, Hernandez, Anderson, Arnold, Willits. As with the BA update, all the MLB ranks below are updated to be current.
  • MLBPiepline’s Jim Callis came out with a new mock draft on 5/29/25: he claims the Nats are following 7-8 players but also seems confident with Holliday at 1-1. His top 5: Holliday, Doyle, Anderson, Arnold, Willits.
  • MLBPipeline’s Jonathan Mayo then popped up with his latest mock on 6/5/25 with a big shocker at the top: He thinks Washington is now going LSU’s Anderson 1-1. top 5: Anderson, Doyle, Arquette, Holliday, Arnold. Very college heavy, all four major D1 players off board by 5th pick. Interesting.

Aggregation Stats for College Baseball for Reference:

Draft Boards (not mocks): these are major shops Prospect Ranking lists, usually with Scouting reports, video, tool grades, etc.

Link Block for the top guys under 1-1 consideration

Prep Players who are in the running for 1-1:

Here’s some updated commentary on the players seemingly in the running; all four had significant post season stats to discuss:

  • Arnold got knocked around a bit by Duke in the ACC tournament ( 5ip, 5runs), then got the win against Mississippi State with a 7ip 13K 119 pitch appearance in the Regionals. FSU won their regional, so we got one last start from Arnold in the super regional losing effort: 6.2, 1R, 6 hits, 9/1 K/BB on 113 pitches. Can’t ask for much more than that.
  • Arquette had two weeks off thanks to Oregon State’s lack of a conference tournament, then went to town in the Regional, going 9-23 with a homer in the finale as OSU got stretched as a regional host but advanced. In the super regional: 5-13 with a walk and a bunch of runs scored; not bad.
  • Doyle had an abbreviated start in the SEC tournament against Texas, going just 3.2 and giving up 6 hits/4 runs. He needed 79 pitches to not even get out of the 4th. Then in regionals, Tennessee threw him in the first game oddly, where he predictably dominated Miami of Ohio with 11Ks over 6.2 innings for the win. Ok, so far so good … but then Tennessee puts him BACK on the mound in the regional final to close it out and he’s throwing 99 on two days rest in basically the highest leverage situation he’s ever faced as a player. Not. Good. I’d be scared to death he just did serious arm damage to himself. He’ll get another start in four days. Finally in the Super Regional he had to go against Arkansas, a team that shelled him earlier in the year … and he got hit again in his final start: 3.2 5h 5r, 2WP, 1HBP, and yanked in the 4th. Not a great look for evaluators getting their final look at the guy, and I think his chances of going 1-1 are finished.
  • Anderson got the start in the SEC tournament opener and dominated Texas A&M, 6ip, 12Ks and got lifted with just 84 pitches. Then in the regional he went game 2 against Dallas Baptist and threw an absolute gem: 7ip, 4hits, 0 runs 11/2 K/BB on 106 pitches. In the super Regional game one, Anderson got hit: 7r (6 earned) on 9 hits in 7ip .. however its worth noting that LSU was up 10-1 by the time Anderson gave up these runs. It’s entirely possible he just cruised through the last two innings to give the bullpen a break. He’s the only one of these players to make to Omaha.

Prep kids:

  • Holliday: season complete.
  • Hernandez: season complete.
  • Willits: season complete.

The Race for 1-1 status: I still think we’re on Holliday. Anderson has clearly supplanted both Arnold and Doyle in the “big three college lefties” ranking, but I don’t think its enough to get past Holliday.

So my current top 5 prediction: Holliday, Anderson, Hernandez, Doyle, Arquette.

Written by Todd Boss

June 9th, 2025 at 8:42 am

Posted in Draft,Prospects

Two month check-in with Nats top Prospects

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Bravo to Lile for his promotion. Photo via District on Deck.

Here’s the two month check-in with all our top 20 (and some) prospects. All stats as of 6/1/25. I dove a bit deeper into any starter in my 6/1 rotation check in, but i’ll repeat some of the info here. Note: all stats were as of 6/1 and I know some stuff has happened since so i’ll add in last three days updates.

#1. Dylan Crews OF (CF): was slashing just .167/.308/.352 in May to lower his already poor seasonal numbers when he tweaked something in his left side and hit the DL with an oblique injury. This is the kind of injury that can derail a season. So much for that Rookie of the Year hopes. How concerned should we be long-term? I really was hoping for him to hit the ground running and he just hasn’t. Temperature: on ice.

#2 Travis Sykora RHP (Starter): off the DL, inexplicably started in low-A, so far unhittable in High-A too. He’s now 21, so its time to get him out of A-Ball. Temperature: red hot.

#3 Brady House SS/3B: Continuing to hit in AAA; .284/.339/.500 slash line for May. Would like to see abit more OBP, but he’s definitely starting to get the team to ask questions about the sh*t-show they’re throwing out at 3B in the majors. Temperature: hotter.

#4 Jarlin Susana RHP (Starter). Hit the DL with a “grade 1 UCL strain.” Which in Nats parlance probably means two months off, an attempted start, and TJ surgery. Temperature: on ice.

# 5 Seaver King SS. King has been improving. His May slash line: .291/.321/.408. Not bad. Still not where we’d like to see him based on the performance of some players we passed up to take him. All that said, just after we wrote this we learned he’s reportedly being promoted to AA (perhaps by the time you read this). Mentioned in the comments is a reminder of how hard it is to hit in Wilmington. Here’s King’s home/road splits so far in 2025: home: .214/.275/.286. Road: 305/.337/.463. Ok, well that’s pretty clear. Maybe we need to keep reminding ourselves not to judge Wilmington hitters too harshly, again. Temperature: warming a bit

# 6 Yohandy Morales 1B/3B: Earned a promotion to AAA. .326/.396/.463 in May. That’s awesome. Maybe he continues to mash in AAA and lets the Nats sunset our ridiculous .150-hitting DH Josh Bell. Temperature: pretty warm.

#7 Cayden Wallace 2B/3B: struggling in AA. He had a marginally better May than April, but still only hit .212 for the month. That’s not good enough for a top-10 prospect, nor is it one that’s going to push for a promotion. He continues to split time between 2B and 3B, though honestly after watching him earlier this spring he seems like a 2B longer term. Which is good, if House turns out to have a years-long lock on the position. Temperature: still cold.

# 8 Cade Cavalli RHP (Starter): he’s back, he’s embarrassing hitters in AAA ( 25/6 K/BB in 16 IP) and I think we see him in the majors inside of a month. hallelujah! Temperature: Warming fast.

#9 Alex Clemmey LHP (Starter): He’s starting to heat up. 1.59 ERA, a ton of Ks, but too many walks in May. You’re not going to keep a starter with a 1.59 ERA in the league for long. Temperature: heating up.

# 10 Robert Hassell III OF (CF): Really started to hit the ball in AAA in May (.330./.356/.500), then got a callup to cover for the injured Young and has held his own in his MLB debut so far: .268/.268/.351). Can’t ask for much more there. Lots of naysayers are eating crow on him right now. Oh, and man he’s fast. Temperature: hot

#11 Caleb Lomavita C: Continuing his solid pro debut; his average and OBP dipped in May, but his power spiked up. Remember, he’s a catcher; if he can mainitain a .800 OPS figure and have plus defense, we’ll be ecstatic. Temperature: Staying Warm.

# 12 Luke Dickerson SS/CF: quickly got promoted out of the FCL and is now hitting well in Low-A: .293/.403/.466 so far playing exclusively SS for Fredericksburg. Great debut so far. I’m so cynical on prep kids that we draft not working out … that i’m shocked he’s this good this quick. Temperature: Red Hot.

# 13 Andry Lara RHP (Starter): He hit the DL in late April and spent the entire month of May there. I have no idea what the injury is, nor is he appearing on the Nats official injury report. Temperature: cold.

#14 Tyler Stuart RHP (Starter): My last-month worries about a TJ are gone: he’s made four rehab starts and has dominated in them. As he should, as someone who solved AA last year and who needs to be in AAA. Great news that he’ll be back soon. Postwriting; he’s been taken off DL and optioned to AA for the time being. Hopefully not there for long. Temperature: hope to warm up soon.

#15 Daylen Lile OF (CF): His hot hitting continued in AAA after his promotion last month, which earned him a MLB call up, where he’s been covering for the Young/Crews injuries for weeks now. He’s not lighting MLB on fire, but he’s 22 in the majors. All due credit. Temperature: red hot.

#16 Kevin Bazzell C/3B: after hitting .115 in April, he’s improved a bunch; he hit .245 in May. Still not the .280/.380/.450 slash line i’d like to see out of a college slugger. Definitely a disappointing debut. Temperature: cool

#17 Jake Bennett LHP (Starter): Bennett made 3 starts to open the month, but now hasn’t pitched since May 11th. Uh oh. Would love to know what is going on here, if anyone has intel. Temperature: very cold.

#18 Brad Lord RHP (Starter): continues to be a multi-role pitcher in the MLB pen and he’s holding firm with a 95 ERA+ for the year. Temperature: red hot for the development, decently warm for production.

#19 Angel Feliz 3B/SS: promoted stateside for the FCL 2025 season and is cruising so far: .333/.420/.467 in a month in Florida. That’s great to see. Temperature: hot

#20 Andrew Pinckney OF (Corner): holding steady with mediocre slash lines playing RF for AAA. He’s officially been passed on the OF depth chart by both Hassell and Lile, and the next time they need an OF call-up it might not be Pinckney even then. Temperature: cold

Notables #20 and above by the Level they started 2025:

in AAA:

  • #28 Andrew Alvarez LHP (Starter) saw his AAA numbers fall. I feel like, when the time comes for a real prospect to rise and needs a AAA spot, he may soon be in trouble. Right now there’s three AAA starters on the DL (Stuart, Ogasawara, Lara) and all three are “better” prospects than Alvaraz, as much as I like him. Maybe he can find a home in the bullpen, especially as a lefty.
  • #31 Andres Chapparo 1B has been optioned to AAA post injury stint thanks to a squeeze on the MLB roster; he’s still a “prospect” and has been (unsurprisingly) tearing up AAA. If Rizzo parts ways with millions of dollars of unproducing relievers, what’s to stop him from parting ways with millions of dollars of unproducing DHs (Josh Bell)?
  • #35 Jackson Rutledge RHP (Starter->Reliever) has stepped back for the MLB bullpen, but has been a better option than the three veterans they’ve now released (Sims, Poche, Lopez).

In AA:

  • #36 Cole Henry RHP (starter->reliever) has become one of the best relievers in the MLB bullpen. Can’t say i saw this coming.
  • #41 Marquis Grissom RHP (Reliever) has been shelled in AAA and isn’t anywhere close to knocking on the door.
  • #47 Phillip Glasser SS has cooled from his hot start.
  • #50 Max Romero C is making the team forget about its younger Catching depth with a .339/.386/.519 May in AA.
  • #75 Seth Shuman RHP earned a promotion to AAA, where he’s struggling to hold onto it.

In High-A:

  • #23 Elijah Green has been unofficially demoted to rookie ball in an undocumented move probably meant to not embarrass him. He has no official ABs since May 17th.
  • #26 Jackson Kent continues to pitch well and won’t be a #26 prospect for long.
  • #27 Armando Cruz continues to struggle at the plate.
  • #51 Brenner Cox had the lowest OPS for Wilmington for the month at just .387.

In Low-A:

  • #21 Christhian Vaquero is not really improving at the plate.
  • #42 Robert Cranz had a solid month; 9ip, 2hits, 14/3 K/BB. Still would like to see him in the rotation.
  • #43 Randal Diaz only hit .194 for the month.

In FCL:

  • #44 Jose Feliz, a 23IFA RHP has been FCL’s best starter so far: 24/4 K/BB in 5 starts with a near 3.00 ERA.
  • #45 Dashyll Tejeda, also a 23IFA and with Feliz the two best players out of that class so far, has started out hot: .300/.488/.367 with his move stateside.
  • #72 Sir Jamison Jones: slow out of the gate at .214 for the month.

Written by Todd Boss

June 4th, 2025 at 8:44 am

Posted in Prospects

2025 CWS Coverage – Field of 64 and Regional Preview

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Its College Baseball post-season time, something we’ve followed in this space for years. Here’s a quick guide to the CWS 2025 post season. The field of 64 was announced on Memorial Day Weekend at Noon, so here’s a preview of this coming weekend’s 16 regional events.

First off, some resources for you.

  • Your final top 25 heading into the post-season according to d1baseball, baseballamerica, and usatoday Coaches poll.
  • Local teams in the rankings: it’s a really down year for area college: there’s not one Virginia team anywhere near the top 25 this year. In fact, there’s not a single VOTE for a DC/MD/VA college team in the final USA Today poll.
  • WarrenNolan’s RPI rankings are a very important part of the seeding and selection process, as we’ll discuss in a bit.
  • Here’s D1Baseball.com’s Tournament Central, my favorite place to track the tourney.
  • Here’s the NCAA.com field of 64 Bracket with some great data points at NCAA.com

Your top 8 seeds and favorites to make Omaha, in order, along with their RPI and their Strength of Schedule (SoS) denoted:

  1. Vanderbilt (42-16): RPI #1, SoS #2
  2. Texas (42-12): RPI #4, SoS #19
  3. Arkansas (43-13): RPI #5, SoS #14
  4. Auburn (38-18): RPI #3, SoS #1
  5. North Carolina (42-12): #6 RPI, #23 SoS
  6. LSU (43-14): #10 RPI, #36 SoS
  7. Georgia (42-15): #2 RPI, #4 SoS
  8. Oregon State (41-12-1): #7 RPI, #42 SoS

There’s definitely some interesting stuff to digest here. Vanderbilt finished 4th in the SEC regular season but won the post-season title, which vaulted them above Texas for #1. They’ve been RPI #1 for a bit, so no surprise here. Texas won the SEC regular season title by two games over Arkansas, who gets the #3 national seed. UNC finished 3rd in the ACC regular season but won the ACC title, likely cementing their slot as a top 8 seed. Interestingly Georgia Tech was the ACC regular season winner but didn’t even get a hosting spot. LSU sneaks into a regional spot at the expense of #8 RPI Coastal Carolina, likely a nod to the amazing atmosphere at LSU’s home stadium. Lastly the orphaned Oregon State team more than earned its #7 seed with its barnstorming season. There’s no easy outs amongst the top 8 seeds.

The National seeds 9-16 and the other regional hosts go as follows:

  • #9 Florida State (38-14) : #14 RPI, #24 SoS
  • #10 Ole Miss (40-19): #12 RPI, #5 SoS
  • #11 Clemson (44-16): #9 RPI, #16 SoS
  • #12 Oregon (42-14): #16 RPI, #35 SoS
  • #13 Coastal Carolina (48-11): #8 RPI, #66 SoS
  • #14 Tennessee (43-16): #11 RPI, #12 SoS
  • #15 UCLA (42-16): #15 RPI, #22 SoS
  • #16 Southern Miss (44-14): #19 RPI, #67 SoS

Unlike 2024, there’s no real hosting shocks here. Oregon remains a host despite losing early in the Big 10 conference tournament. Ole Miss made a huge run to the SEC tourney final and will be a tough out. Alabama ends up being the highest RPI team to not host (#13), likely due to an early exit in the SEC tournament and a 16-14 league record.

Local DC/MD/VA local teams in the tourney:

None. Last year there were three Virginia teams in the field of 64, including UVA as a national seed. This year, not so much. West Virginia is in, along with nearby Carolina schools like ECU and Coastal Carolina that sometimes recruit in the state. This year, nothing.

Quick Regional Thoughts

Here’s one sentence or so on each regional

  1. Vanderbilt (42-16): The #1 seeds get a super easy regional with their #2 as RPI #32 Louisville. No upsets here, but Louisville has a big-time arm that could throw a monkey wrench into the plans.
  2. Texas (42-12) gets a really easy regional, with three mid-majors and no real threats.
  3. Arkansas (43-13) gets the Big East champ Creighton as a #3 seed, a bit troubling, but may not even see them. Their #2 seed is Kansas, not exactly a baseball powerhouse this year.
  4. Auburn (38-18): gets NC state as their 2nd seed, and gets Stetson, who got into the tournament in controversial fashion when their conference tournament got rained out.
  5. North Carolina (42-12) was not done any favors by the committee, getting #2 Oklahoma and the big10 tourney champs Nebraska as a #3. Ouch.
  6. LSU (43-14) will have Dallas Baptist to contend with (#20 RPI), but otherwise has an easy draw.
  7. Georgia (42-15) gets two storied programs in Duke and Oklahoma State, but both programs struggled this year against Quadrant-1 schools.
  8. Oregon State (41-12-1) has a pretty manageable regional that includes TCU and USC in down years.
  9. Florida State (38-14) gets the team with the best record in the land in Northeastern (48-9 with a 25-2 in-confernece record), but they have almost no Q1 experience.
  10. Ole Miss (40-19) comes in red-hot, having made the SEC tourney final. For their troubles they get ACC regular season champ Georgia Tech, but being hosts will make the difference here.
  11. Clemson (44-16) struggled at season’s end and has a tricky regional that includes West Virginia and the controversial Kentucky, who squeaked into this draw as the last of 13 SEC teams in the tourney.
  12. Oregon (42-14): Upset watch here: Oregon has two tough teams in Arizona and Cal Poly to contend with.
  13. Coastal Carolina (48-11): They’ll have to prove their lofty RPI here; they have to deal with Florida. Florida is certainly battle tested: 28 of their 58 games were against Q1 schools.
  14. Tennessee (43-16): probably saves their Ace for Wake Forest in game two and should cruise in a relatively easy regional.
  15. UCLA (42-16): gets three other West Coast teams, any of whom seem to be possible to win here. UC Irvine, Arizona State, and Fresno State all have major college baseball pedigree, and California college baseball is just different.
  16. Southern Miss (44-14); the mid-major has to contend with both Alabama, who arguably should have had a host, AND Miami. Ouch.

Prospect Watch. We’ve talked the top guys to death, but here’s where they’re playing. By region, here’s some guys to watch that are like top 50 college prospects in this year’s draft:

D1baseball.com’s Prospect Watch post is here as well.

CBS sports RJ Anderson had top 10 prospects to watch post as well.

  1. Vanderbilt Regional: Vandy could have to contend with Supp-1st projected Alabama ace Patrick Forbes in game 2 of their regional.
  2. Texas Regional: Texas’ speedy OF Max Belyeu is a late 1st round projection.
  3. Arkansas Regional: their transfer SS Wehiwa Aloy projects as back of 1st round now, and they have a big left in Zach Root who’s a supp-1st rounder projection.
  4. Auburn Regional: their big hitter is Ike Irish a C/OF type.
  5. North Carolina Regional: UNC’s catcher Luke Stevenson projects as a late 1st rounder. Oklahoma’s ace Kyson Witherspoon could face UNC in game 2.
  6. LSU Regional: left ace Kade Anderson will lead the way for LSU.
  7. Georgia Regional: Georgia is really a team effort; they only have one top 200 projected draft player in OF/1B Tre Phelps
  8. Oregon State Regional: top-5 projected pick Aiva Arquette stars for OSU.
  9. Florida State Regional: FSU’s ace Jamie Arnold likely goes game 2.
  10. Ole Miss Regional: Ole Miss’ big arm is Mason Morris, a likely 3rd rounder.
  11. Clemson Regional: their leading hitter Cam Cannarella was on upper 1st round watch early, but has faded.
  12. Oregon Regional: Arizona’s leading hitter Brendan Summerhill leads their attack.
  13. Coastal Carolina Regional: Their leading prospect is C Caden Bodine, who has seen his star really fade this season.
  14. Tennessee Regional: top-5 projected Liam Doyle will have scouts out for sure. Tennessee also has mid-1st rounder Gavin Kilen and supp-1st round Andrew Fischer in the lineup. Wake’s Marek Houston has top-5 buzz and would be a great matchup when Doyle pitches. Wake also has late 1st rounder Ethan Conrad in the OF.
  15. UCLA Regional: there’s a slew of 3rd and 4th rounders amongst all the teams here, typical for a California-heavy regional.
  16. Southern Miss Regional: Southern Miss is led by ace RHP JB Middleton, a late 1st round projection. He could face off in game 2 against Alabama’s Riley Quick, a Fastball/Slider guy who also projects in the same range.

Top 1st round prospects whose team outright missed the post season:

  • TAMU and Jace LaViolette, projected 1-1 to begin the year, now a mid-1st rounder.
  • UC Santa Barbara and Tyler Bremner: how his stock has fallen this year.
  • Indiana and Devin Taylor got a couple of shout outs, but he’s pushed back to end of 1st round.

We’ll circle back next week with Regional recaps and Super Regional projections. We probably will also return with a check-in on the 1-1 candidates in our regular series.

Written by Todd Boss

May 28th, 2025 at 11:19 am

Posted in College/CWS,Prospects

Fourteen week Check-in with 1-1 Draft Candidates

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Arnold seems like a lock at this point for the top 5; would the Nats pluck him for 1-1? Photo via FSU sports page

Here’s our seventh check-in on the 1-1 candidates this spring. We’re at the end of week 14 of the college season, which is also the end of the regular season for the major conferences. Next week is conference tournaments, then we get the field of 64 and regionals. We’ll continue to have stat updates but they’ll likely be tied to post-season performances going forward.

Important Draft related news and notes, plus Mocks and Draft rankings that have published since our last posting, are listed below:

  • MLBPipeline’s Jim Callis published his first official Mock Draft of the season on 5/6/25. He goes Holliday, Doyle, Anderson, Hernandez, and Arnold. Highest i’ve seen either Doyle or especially Anderson.
  • Keith Law at the Athletic released his first Mock draft on 5/7/25. He goes Holliday, Doyle, Arquette, Arnold, and Witherspoon (?), who i’ve not ever mentioned/studied once in this series. He’s Oklahoma’s Friday night RHP starter (sound familiar?).
  • Baseball America Mock Draft 3.0 on 5/12/25. They go Holliday, Arquette, Hernandez, Doyle, Arnold. Pretty high for Arquette, but more in line with my current predictions (see the bottom).
  • ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel posted a “mini-mock” and his top 150 list on 5/14/25. Of course his top 5 in the mock didn’t match his ranks. Mock went Holliday, Arnold, Hernandez, Doyle, Anderson. His ranks go Arnold, Willits, Holliday, Hernandez, Carlson. He loves the prep kids in FV.
  • MLBPipeline’s Jonathan Mayo posted his latest Mock draft on 5/15/25. Holliday, Arnold, Doyle, Arquette, Anderson. The MLB guys clearly like Anderson.

Aggregation Stats for College Baseball for Reference:

Link Block for the top guys under 1-1 consideration

Prep Players who are in the running for 1-1:

Prospects guys now removed from 1-1 discussion at this point. I’m just leaving their ranks at this point for space considerations.

Here’s some updated commentary on the players seemingly in the running.

  • Arnold had a quality start in Berkeley (you know, Cal-Berkeley, a member of the “Atlantic Coast” Conference), then got roughed up by #4 UNC in his final regular season start, giving up 4 runs in 5 IP. FSU is likely to be a top 8 seed, which means Arnold probably gets at least three more starts (ACC tournament, Regionals, and Super-Regionals) before FSU is likely done; hopefully they make the CWS for even more looks.
  • Arquette had a decent series against Long Beach State for his top-5 ranked OSU team, and his performance seems to have reached its stability point for the season. He’s now at .348/.473/.676 from .351/.472/.701 two weeks ago, almost identical numbers across the board. He seems like a lock for the top 5, but seems out of the running for 1-1 to the Nats.
  • LaViolette finally gets “cut” from this discussion list. I just don’t see him supplanting the college guys on this list for 1-1 consideration, and Callis’ mock has him nearly out of the top 10.
  • Doyle remains on this list to continue discussing now that MLBpipeline has both him and Anderson jumping Arnold in his 5/6/25 mock. He pitched amazingly well to shut down Vandy two weeks ago, 7ip 3h 0r 12K. Then he got shelled in his final regular season start against top-ranked Arkansas: 4 2/3, 11 hits (!), 8 runs. Not the lasting impression to leave with scouts. Luckily he’ll have a couple post-season starts to rebound.
  • Anderson and Doyle both sit near the top of the national K/9 ranks, and had to face down two great teams to end the season. Against #1 Arkansas, Anderson went 5 2/3r, 10/1 K/BB and gave up 2 runs. not bad. Then to finish the season at South Carolina, Anderson went 6 2/3rds and gave up just one run. Definitely finished strong, but he’s 3rd out of 3 top LHP college pitchers on most boards apparently.

Prep kids: Not much news this cycle; most Prep HS schedules are starting to wind down. In fact, I have zero updates on any of the top three prep kids

  • Holliday
  • Hernandez
  • Willits

The Race for 1-1 status: More and more I’m thinking the college arms are not in contention, while we’re seeing fast risers from the prep ranks. I now think the Nats are down to one of 3 guys: Arnold, Hernandez, and Holliday. I think they’re going to end up with Holliday.

In Week 12, I reviewed each of the top 5 teams, discussing their draft proclivities in more detail, which leads me to these guesses as to who they’ll draft. Here’s how I think they’ll pick, assuming we go Holliday 1-1.

  • Angels: close to majors, college guys: Arnold or Doyle. Maybe Arquette
  • Seattle: top-end Prep kids: Willits or more likely Hernandez
  • Colorado: college arms: Doyle or Arnold if available
  • St. Louis: college bats: LaViolette, Arquette more likely.

So my current top 5: Holliday, Arnold, Hernandez, Doyle, Arquette.

Written by Todd Boss

May 19th, 2025 at 8:23 am

Posted in Draft,Prospects

One Month Temperature check on the Nats top Prospects

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House pushing for a promotion. Photo via primetimesportstalk.com

Before we get too far away from May 1st … Here’s a one-month check in on our 20 prospects plus other notables in the system.

I published my Nats Prospect Rankings back in March, and the xls is here online. I have not updated it since, though we have had some movement (Crews graduated, Reifert returned, Garcia released). I’ll use my rankings as a guide to review players here. I’ll use a quick “hot or not” grading system for their start to the 2025 season.

Here’s my top 20 and a quick heat check on how they’re doing, plus notables ranked above 20 worth mentioning. All stats were as of 5/1/25, the day I wrote this. I realize that today 5/6 some of the below has already changed …

#1. Dylan Crews OF (CF): had a brutal start to the season (getting one hit in his first 7 games) and is clawing his way out. Slash line sits at .212/.241/.356. He is projecting for a 20/20 season believe it or not, but he’s not impressing the ROY voters so far. His big concern right now is that he’s not walking, at all. He has just 3 walks on the year against 31 whiffs. Temperature: cold, but warming up.

#2 Travis Sykora RHP (Starter): on the low-A DL, recovering from off-season hip surgery. Not considered a major injury, should debut in High-A mid-season. The team initially said he’d be out until at least May. Temperature: TBD.

#3 Brady House SS/3B: Cruising in AAA. .292/.356/.500 slash line for the month. This is drastically improved over last year’s AAA line of .250/.280/.375. Another month of this and the current Nats 3B solution of Rosario/Tena may be replaced. Temperature: hot.

#4 Jarlin Susana RHP (Starter). Susana’s AA debut has been solid: 3.91 era, 1.5 whip and 35/17 K/BB in 23 innings. Too many walks of course, but i like that his K rate is so high even as he’s now pitching against AA hitters. You can’t ask for much more from a 21yr old in AA. Temperature: warm.

# 5 Seaver King SS. No easy way to say this: King is struggling in High-a. .233/.300/.356. 27 Ks in 19 games. I was hoping for more from his debut. Temperature: cold

# 6 Yohandy Morales 1B/3B: .246/.306/.491 in AA, which is up and down a bit from his AA line last year. He’s showing more power, but less patience (just 4 walks this month). Playing mostly 1B now, so the power is nice. Temperature: luke warm.

#7 Cayden Wallace 2B/3B: struggling in AA. .202/.250/.333. Has been playing mostly 3B but has some 2B starts filled in, a position he may have to grow more accustomed to given House’s performance ahead of him. Maybe its the fact that the Texas League has a bunch of hitter’s parks but Wallace has yet to really produce in the Eastern League. Temperature: cold

# 8 Cade Cavalli RHP (Starter): has now made rehab starts in three levels, and sits in Rochester. As discussed in my April check-in, there’s a ready made spot in the rotation right now for him, when he’s ready to go. It’s hard to gauge where he is based on him blowing away A-ball hitters, so we’ll have to see how he looks in the majors. Temperature: TBD.

#9 Alex Clemmey LHP (Starter): He’s struggling with control so far in his High-A debut. 27/20 K/BB in 18IP right now, which isn’t helping his WHIP or his ERA. Of course, he’s 19 in high-A. So no notes really. Temperature: holding steady.

# 10 Robert Hassell III OF (CF): .240/.296/.280 in AAA. He has little power and no walks. With a full MLB outfield, Hassell needs to show us something. Temperature: cool.

#11 Caleb Lomavita C: Solid pro debut so far: .302/.397/.365 in High-A starting full time. He needs more walks, and needs to hit for more power, but can’t argue with a .300 hitter. Temperature: Warm.

# 12 Luke Dickerson SS/CF: sitting in XST, yet to debut. Temperature: TBD.

# 13 Andry Lara RHP (Starter): Lara has been shelled for a 9 ERA and a .368 BAA in his AAA debut. This shouldn’t be a surprise: the team has over-promoted him basically his entire career. He had a .363 ERA in 19 AA starts last year; was that enough to prove he needed to move up? Honestly, I think he needed another month in AA but now he’s learning the AAA ropes on the fly. Temperature: cool.

#14 Tyler Stuart RHP (Starter): He is sitting on the 7 day DL in AA, apparently has an “elbow issue” that the team “hopes” isn’t serious but that he is out “indefinitely” for now. This sounds to me like months of PT, one rehab start and TJ surgery. That’s definitely a loss for this team, assuming he’s out til mid 2026. Temperature: cool.

#15 Daylen Lile OF (CF): just finished off a super month in AA slashing .319/.340/.505 and earned a promotion to AAA as of the day of this writing. He’s kept his Ks down, and has a .500 slugging with just two homers in the month, showing a ton of gap power. I’ve been bearish on him forever and may have to change my tune. His promotion was predicated by the release of Stone Garrett, who just never could recover from his broken leg and now makes way for Lile’s spot in the AAA outfield. Temperature: red hot.

#16 Kevin Bazzell C/3B: is really struggling in Low-A: .115/.201/.148 for the month. Ouch. He only has 8 Ks in 15 games/61Abs, so that’s not bad. But this is not sustainable. Temperature: ice cold.

#17 Jake Bennett LHP (Starter): As of this writing, has been activated to Low-A to make his first pro start since 2023, after missing all of last year rehabbing TJ. Our forgotten prospect, who was in the 8-10 range after his pro debut but now has drifted down into the deep teens. If he can return to his promise and his scouting report, he could be an important down-ballot prospect for this team. Temperature: tbd

#18 Brad Lord RHP (Starter): can’t ask for much more here: just an 18th rounder who made the team out of spring training and who is now getting MLB starts. His numbers are mediocre in the majors, but his success story is top notch. He’s a massive success story for this team’s player development and amateur scouting department. Temperature: red hot for the development, luke warm for the production.

#19 Angel Feliz 3B/SS: on the DSL roster for now, may get promoted stateside for the FCL 2025 season. Temperature: tbd

#20 Andrew Pinckney OF (Corner): slashing .233/.333/.349 as a starting corner OF in AAA. For now he’s starting, but may need to improve production.

Notables #20 and above by the Level they started 2025:

in AAA:

  • #28 Andrew Alvarez LHP (Starter) got the opening day start for AAA and been holding his own but has a 1.50 whip and may see his numbers regress to the mean a bit.
  • #35 Jackson Rutledge RHP (Starter->Reliever) has been stellar in the MLB bullpen, after the team finally wised up and moved him to relief.

In AA:

  • # 36 Cole Henry RHP (starter->reliever) has gotten promoted twice already and is now contributing in the MLB bullpen. His numbers in the majors aren’t stellar, but he’s there.
  • # 41 Marquis Grissom RHP (Reliever) has already gotten promoted to AAA and should slot into the AAA closer role. He could be someone to replace an underperforming MLB reliever soon.
  • # 47 Phillip Glasser SS is destroying AA pitching right now: .373/.418/.471. Not bad for a $20k bonus senior draft pick.

In High-A:

  • #23 Elijah Green is still not hitting. .176/.265/.324 with 40 (!) strikeouts in 21 games. I’m just not sure what to say here. He should still be in Low-A until he learns how to hit.
  • #26 Jackson Kent’s pro debut has gone great (though he got shelled in his last April start). Even with the poor outing he’s got a 30/6 K/BB, a 1.05 whip, a .217 BAA. That’s promising and he may be moving up in prospect ranks soon.
  • #27 Armando Cruz is at .192/.222/.250.
  • #51 Brenner Cox is at .167/.231/.217 with 31 Ks in 16 games. Just not cutting it and i’m not sure why he was promoted out of Low-A.

In Low-A:

  • #21 Christhian Vaquero is marginally improving his slash line, showing some power this year. .244/.320/.395.
  • #42 Robert Cranz, the sudden top 30 prospect on BA and Law’s lists, has a .161 BAA in the closer role but is walking nearly a guy an inning. So, good and bad.
  • #43 Randal Diaz, also surprisingly on Law’s top 20 list for the system, is struggling out of the gate. .230/.326/.270.

Written by Todd Boss

May 6th, 2025 at 1:34 pm

Posted in Prospects

Twelve Week Check-in with 1-1 Candidates for 2025 Draft

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Could Eli Willits really go top? Photo via USA Baseball

Here’s our sixth check-in on the 1-1 candidates.

Important Draft related news and notes that have published since our last posting (Note: since i’m doing these every 2-week posts and linking to mocks as they happen, i’m going to abandon my typical annual “Mock draft collection” post. Or maybe i’ll throw it up right before the draft).

  • ProspectsLive posted its updated 250 Draft Prospects on 4/21/25. Top 5 go Arnold, Hernandez, Carlson, Holliday, LaViolette. All the rest of the top 10 are in our link block, so no surprises. I think they have Carlson too high, but can’t quibble otherwise. Detailed scouting reports on each player are here as well, and i’ve updated the link blocks below with direct links and updated ranks.
  • Baseball America’s Carlos Collazo wrote an interesting piece titled the “8 MLB Draft prospects who could go 1-1,” illustrating just how wide open this is, which of course supports why we’re keeping tabs on so many players. His analysis mirrors the list of players i’m tracking, and anyone not in his top 8 I’m dropping off the check in list.
  • Baseball America did a podcast on 4/25/25 ahead of the release of its second staff mock draft. Last time their staff member chose Hernandez 1-1; this time a BA writer took Willits, saying it came down to Willits or Arquette for him.
  • Two of the guys we’re covering here (Doyle and Anderson) faced off as Tennessee visited LSU on 4/25/25 in a battle of top 10 teams (LSU is ranked #6, Tennessee #7 by d1baseball as of gametime). I’ll discuss more about their outings below. However the game itself was pretty amazing: LSU went into the bottom of the ninth down 3-0 and scored 6 runs to win it, including a 450+ dead-center 3-run walk off homer from their best hitter Jared Jones.
  • MLPPipeline finally released an updated to its top 150 Draft board; it was pretty dated with ranks that were done in December, and we saw some significant movement. I have updated the below ranks for the updated data and wrote separately about the update and the accompanying podcast, which had several very interesting nuggets of info. I’m also going to seriously cull the below list of actively tracked players because of it.
  • ProspectsLive released its Mock Draft v2.0 on 4/30/25. They went Holliday, Arnold, Hernandez, Arquette, Willits. I can’t argue with this from a draft ranks order, but the match with the teams to their proclivities in the draft doesn’t add up; more on that at the bottom.
  • BA posted their updated top 400 on 4/30/25. There’s a slight bit of movement in the top 10 but they still have top 3 as Arnold, Holliday, and Hernandez. I’ve updated the ranks in the player snippets below but eliminated the link since its all in one place now.
  • BleacherReport’s Joel Reuter’s 4/25/25 Mock draft has the Nats going conservative. top 5 in the mock: Arnold, Arquette, Hernandez, Holliday, Houston.
  • Kiley McDaniel posted his scouting reports on the top draft candidates all in one place on 4/24/25. He also posted video snippets of the top players on his twitter feed. I’ll add his commentary to the prep players below.
  • Just as i published this on 5/5/25, MLBPipeline guys published an “Odds to go 1-1” post. Holliday, Hernandez, and Arnold. It’s basically a transcript of their podcast last week that I quoted elsewhere.

Aggregation Stats for College Baseball for Reference:

Link Block for the top guys under 1-1 consideration

Prep Players who are in the running for 1-1:

Prospects guys we’re removing from 1-1 discussion for now and why. We’ve removed a ton of names that have been in discussion this spring.

  • Cam Canarella, CF, Clemson. Clemson stats & box scores, MLBPipeline rpt (#38), BA (#25) His star has dropped since mid 2024, now projecting as a mid-1st rounder.
  • Gavin Kilen, 2B, Tennessee. Tennessee stats & box scores, MLBPipeline rpt (#16), BA (#18)He started very hot for Tennessee but is an end-of-the-1st rounder, 5’11” 2B guy. He also pulled a hamstring and hasn’t played for weeks, torpedoing his 1-1 chances.
  • Devin Taylor, OF, Indiana. Indiana stats & box scores, MLBPipeline rpt (#23), BA (#38). solid offensively but fringy defensively, so moving him down. #6 on ProspectsLive, so still some hope there.
  • Brendan Summerhill, OF, Arizona. UofA stats and box scores, MLBPipeline rpt (#22), BA (#24); he was top 10 fringe and started hot, but broke his hand in mid March and will miss a chunk of the season, crushing his chances of going higher. Was top 10, now in the 20s.
  • Tyler Bremner, RHP, UC Santa Barbara. UCSB stats & boxes, MLBPipeline rpt (#17), BA (#13). He just has not impressed against sub-standard competition like he should have, and is no longer on anyone’s radar for the top of the draft. #8 on Prospectslive. Dropped all the way to #17 by MLB; was in their top 5 to start season.
  • Kayson Cunningham, SS, Johnson HS (TX). MLB (#6), BA (#9), ProspectsLive (#10). He’s a seriously good prospect of course, but there’s 3 prep guys clearly ahead of him, so dropping him out of analysis.
  • Liam Doyle, LHP, Tennessee. Tenn stats & box scores, MLB (#10), BA (#11), PL (#10+). Despite a massive jump on MLB’s list (from #75 to #10), I don’t see him as a realistic candidate for 1-1 anymore. If the team wants a college LHP starter … they’re taking Arnold.
  • Kade Anderson, LHP, LSU. LSU Stats & box scores, MLB (#9), BA (#12), PL (#10+). Jumped from #44 to #9 on MLB’s latest draft, but despite excellent showing in 2025 he’s #3 out of #3 college LHP starters, and the Nats aren’t going to pass on Arnold or Doyle for him, so i’m going to stop hyper-tracking.
  • Marek Houston, SS, Wake Forest. WFU Stats & box scores, MLB (#12), BA (#7), PL (#10+). Jumped up a bit in the latest MLB ranks, but if the Nats are going to take a college SS … they’re taking Arquette at this point.
  • Billy Carlson, SS/RHP Corona HS (CA). MLB (#6), BA (#8), PL (#3). Despite increasing his profile all year (in part due to the fact that he plays on the same HS team as Hernandez), Carlson is like the 3rd best prep SS out of three, and for similar logic to Doyle/Anderson … if the Nats want a prep SS with a slick glove, they’ll be picking Willits.

Here’s some updated commentary.

  • LaViolette‘s TAMU team had two tough series, at #1 Texas and hosting #2 LSU. He got just one hit in each weekend series. His slash line took a dive as a result and has gone down to .276/.437/.593 (two weeks ago it was .307/.468/.693). He’s running out of time to impress the decision makers, and more and more is looking like a down-ballot draftee.
  • Arnold had two great starts over the past two weeks against top competition. He went into #17 Louisville and went 7 2/3 11/1 K/BB, gave up 2 runs. Then with FSU hosting Clemson last weekend in a battle of top 5 teams, he limited Clemson to 1 run in 6 ip despite being rather wild on the night (3 walks and 3 HBP). No word on whether Nats brass was at this start, but it would have made sense to get another look against decent competition. He continues to keep himself in the 1-1 discussion.
  • Arquette got “the visit” from Nats brass for their 11th weekend visit. Here’s the problem with Arquette succinctly stated: if you want a big power hitting SS who won’t stay on the position and has to move to 3B, then Holliday is a younger, better, more upside version. So, to me that always means Arquette is going to be “behind” Holliday if this is the stature of player the Nats are looking at. In the meantime, his slash line has cooled a bit in the last two weeks, down to .351/.472/.701 from .383/.497/.780 as OSU visited Oregon two weekends ago in a battle of two top 10 teams.
  • Doyle was absolutely amazing in a high-profile showdown at LSU on 4/25/25, going 6 2/3rds and giving up just one hit to #6 LSU in their bandbox of a stadium. 6/3 K/BB so not nearly as many Ks as normal, but he made himself some money today. Is there a world where Doyle is picked above Arnold? Maybe, but it is fading fast. Last weekend weather issues caused him to pitch twice in two innings against Arnold, something scouts and MLB execs probably cringed at.
  • Anderson looked nearly as good as his counterpart Doyle on 4/25/25: 7ip, 2runs, 11Ks. Both guys took no decisions. But, as per above, neither Doyle and Anderson are getting picked over Arnold at this point, so we’ll focus on the top guys from here on out.

Prep kids: I’ll paraphrase McDaniel’s scouting report for the prep kids, in lieu of any actual news.

  • Holliday: Word on the street is that Holliday had a hitch in his swing last year that he’s fixed, but that he’ll project as a strikeout happy, 65-grade power hitter as a pro. He’s described as an above average defender with a plus arm, and should be a top-level 3B prospect. McDaniel isn’t sold on him as 1-1.
  • Hernandez; sits mid-upper 90s, hits 100+. Plus-Plus changeup. has worked on his curve and its now above average; slider is his 4th pitch and needs work. The knock on him is that his FB is straight and will become more hittable if he loses velocity. 2nd-round talent as a 3B hitter too.
  • Carlson: turns 19 a few weeks after draft, a negative for many teams. 80-grade arm at short. has a huge swing right now, will need some fixing as a pro, but here you’re drafting for the floor of a solid pro SS with all the defensive tools.
  • Willits: hit over power, plus speed, plus defender, true SS. Solid contact, switch hitter who’s better from the left hand side. All plus tools. Super young, reclassified from 2026 class. Again mentions that many teams really over-value the age at draft.

The Race for 1-1 status: More and more I’m thinking the college arms are not in contention, while we’re seeing fast risers from the prep ranks. I now think the Nats are seriously looking at Willits for 1-1. However, they also can dream on Holliday and Hernandez. In a draft where the college guys aren’t blowing your socks off, you roll the dice on upside.

The next four teams picking are the Angels, Seattle, Colorado, and St Louis. Just off the top of my head, i these teams seem to have a drafting history like this:

  • Angels: want quick to the majors college guys; they hyper promote and have had a draftee be first to debut for each draft class for 3 years running. Their last six 1st rounders have all been college players. This screams polished college arm; aka Jamie Arnold.
  • Seattle loves prep kids at the top; 5 of last 6 picks have been HSers, all bats no prep arms. I’ll bet they take either Willits or Holliday if they’re there, but may not be able to pass on Hernandez.
  • Colorado can’t get FA pitchers to come to Denver, so they have to grow them. Their last 6 1st rounders have all been college, and 3 of the last 4 are arms. I think they pick Arnold or Doyle, whoever’s there.
  • St. Louis has 4 straight college guys in 1st; i’ll bet they are dreaming on LaViolette.

So my current top 5: Holliday, Arnold, Hernandez, Doyle, LaViolette.

Written by Todd Boss

May 5th, 2025 at 9:16 am

Posted in Draft,Prospects

MLB Pipeline drops updated ranks and interesting Draft nuggets

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I’m not sure how I feel about drafting a kid whose Twitter profile picture is this. Photo via Ethan Holliday’s X/Twitter account

The big news of today is the MLB Pipeline crew updating its Draft Ranks for the 2025 draft for the first time in months, with significant movement both within the top 10 and throughout.

The updated board is here. You can see some of the movement, but notably:

  • Ethan Holliday remains #1.
  • Arnold remains #3
  • Seth Hernandez up to #2 from #5
  • LaViolette dropped from 2 to 7, Bremner dropped all the way to 17
  • Willits up significantly.
  • Both Anderson and Doyle now in the top 10.

However, what I want to talk about was some of the interesting draft nuggets and other information points that the team talked about in the accompanying podcast that dropped last night. It’s a good listen if you’re hyper-into this stuff like I am this year.

I listened to it so you don’t have to, but here’s some of the interesting stuff I heard.

  • The analysts consensus is that the 1-1 pick is now coming down to one of just three players: Holliday, Arnold, and Hernandez.
  • The group generally thinks at this point the odds for 1st overall are Holliday 50-60%, Hernandez 20%, Arnold 10%, Arquette 3-5%, and the Field 3-5%.
  • By new draft guidelines, If a player attends the pre-draft scouting combine and takes a medical physical, teams cannot offer that player more than a 25% cut on the slot value. So 1-1 is worth $11.1M dollars; 75% of that figure is $8.3M. I was not aware of this rule. And, it really limits how much of a deal you can cut at 1-1. If everyone takes the physical, nobody’s taking a $7M bonus deal at 1-1 to give the Nats millions of dollars to spend later on.
  • The group suspects that, since the industry knows this is a weaker draft at the top that most of the top players will take physicals to force teams’ hands and force them to guarantee at least 75% of that value.
  • Burns and Condon both got $9.25M bonuses last year; Skenes and Crews got $9.2 and $9M in 2023. It seems unlikely that the Nats will have to go much higher (if at all higher) than this threshold for one of these top guys this year.
  • The group believes that the Nats, and Mike Rizzo in particular, are just the right combination of risk acceptance profile to roll the dice on being the first team to ever take a prep RHP 1-1.
  • Direct quote, “The Nationals are a ceiling organization, not a floor organization.”
  • They talked about how Rizzo is a scouting-first guy (not analytics-first, which point to younger players and safer college picks). If Rizzo thinks Hernandez is the best player, Rizzo is going to take him. Hernandez, by far, has the highest ceiling of any player in this draft; Holliday is more about the track record, and Arnold is more about floor.
  • This seems to me to be a distinct break in the Rizzo regime’s approach. If you look at the nature of our drafts for the first decade of Rizzo’s tenure, it was very college-heavy, barely ever taking a prep kid … except at the top or with major overslot deals.
  • There have been teams/times where a prep RHP came really close to going 1-1. Hunter Greene was in serious consideration for 1-1 in 2017 before Minnesota took Royce Lewis. They told a story about Rizzo at Arizona taking Max Scherzer in 2006 as a prep RHP: they drafted 11th but Rizzo had Scherzer #1 on his board.
  • (speaking of the 2006 draft: Longoria, Kershaw, and Scherzer all picked in the top 11).
  • Hernandez is not just a RHP: he’s also a significant hitting prospect. He’s a major power hitter who bats ahead of fellow 1st round pick Carlson in his high school lineup. So, there’s always some fallback options there and/or some two-way options (can’t see the Nats doing that honestly).
  • The Nats decision makers were in Oregon State to watch Arquette last weekend. We know they went to Florida State a few weeks back and saw Arnold get shelled. The entire industry was at the NHSI game where Hernandez shined, and the entire industry was at the big Oklahoma 3-team showdown where Holliday’s team played. So they’re covering their bases.
  • Both Arquette and Holliday … are represented by Scott Boras. And the Nats take a lot of Boras clients.

Anyway, I came away from this podcast with the distinct idea that the Nats are going with either Holliday or Hernandez as of this juncture. Lets hope we get some more information on both players before the draft.

Written by Todd Boss

April 30th, 2025 at 9:38 am

Posted in Draft,Prospects

Ten Week Check-in with 1-1 Candidates for 2025 Draft

12 comments

Here’s our fifth check-in on the 1-1 candidates.

Important Draft related news and notes that have published since our last posting:

  • MLBPipeline staff did a mini “mock draft” on 4/10/25 talking just about top 10 picks, and there’s absolutely a shift in the discussion. Three of the top 5 college candidates we’ve been tracking aren’t even in their top 10 as they have pivoted to prep players. The time tracking the likes of LaViolette and Bremner may be done.
  • The National High School Invitational (NHSI) event happened in this cycle, and included Corona HS with its two upper 1st round prospects. Read below for a deep-dive into Seth Hernandez in particular.
  • D1Baseball reordered their ranks for just college players and now go Arnold, Arquette, Houton, LaViolette, and Kade Anderson, who we’ll start tracking.
  • BA released their Mock Draft v2.0 on 4/14/25. Following along with their scouting report of Hernandez NHSI, they’ve got Hernandez first, saying its looking like the perfect set of circumstances to have a prep RHP go 1-1.
  • The Athletic’s Keith Law released his top 50 Draft prospects on 4/15/25: Holliday, Doyle, Arnold, Arquette, Houston. Hernandez is all the way down at #21, which is way, way out of line with the rest of the industry. But, his ranks also support Doyle’s meteoric rise.
  • Law also wrote a longer form analysis of Arnold, Carlson, and Hernandez in his Draft notes article on 4/15/25. Basically said Arnold won’t get out of the top 3, while he’s not sold on Hernandez (more on that below).
  • Kiley McDaniel published his updated Draft class ranks on 4/15/25. True to form, Kiley has some prep kids way, way up there, though he leads the line with Arnold. Remember; McDaniel’s methodology is all driven around projected Future Value, so he tends to dream on prep kids and their ceiling instead of thinking about risk. He’s got Eli Willits, a prep SS in Oklahoma, #2 on his list, primarily with an age-based analysis (he’s super young), which is crazy. McDaniel does say one interesting thing: Analytics-heavy teams like Willits and Carlson, while old-school scouting/eyeball teams like Holliday. Which do you think the Nats are? More on this later.
  • McDaniel also posted a ranking of the College Aces on 4/18/25 … with rankings that do not align with the draft ranks. McDaniel explains this in the preamble; the ranking (which has Doyle top and Arnold 4th) is who is performing NOW, versus his draft class ranks (where Arnold is top and Doyle is 12th) where he’s projecting “Future Value” of the player in the majors. Confused?
  • Two of the biggest prep prospects (Holliday and Willits) played last weekend: here’s Keith Law’s scouting report. I’ll reference it below for the two players.

Aggregation Stats for College Baseball for Reference:

Link Block for the top guys under 1-1 consideration. I’ve got this whittled down a bit. Note: the MLBPipeline report rank is a bit out of date at this point, being months old. I’m sure they’ll update it soon, and when they do i’ll re-capture the updated ranks. There’s just no way, for example, that LaViolette is still #2 or Doyle is #75 right now. The BA list was updated 3/26/25 and is better.

Prep Players who are in the running for 1-1:

Prospects guys we’re removing from 1-1 discussion for now and why. I’ll be paring the above list soon enough; there’s too many names in the mix to track every couple of weeks.

Here’s some updated commentary.

  • LaViolette: continues to improve his slash line, now hitting .307/.468/.693 (two weeks ago he was at .294/.451/.633). He destroyed Arkansas pitching on the road last weekend, going 5-12 with 4 homers and 3 walks and now has 15 dongs for the year. Is it too little too late for him to go 1-1? I think so; the narrative has already been written for him this year, but man someone’s going to get a huge bat in the first 10 picks or so. Can you imagine this guy in Colorado?
  • Arnold: We got a little bit of context for Arnold’s dip in performance; his missed start was due to a flu or illness, and he was weak for the next couple of weeks, which led to those iffy starts. He bounced back with a solid beatdown of Va Tech on 4/12 (7ip 4hits 1r 9/2 K/BB), and then his start last weekend was cancelled in the wake of the Florida State shootings. Season line: 8 starts, 4-1, 2.40 ERA, 0.97 whip, .177 BAA. 57/15 K/BB in 41 innings. I’d like to see him going deeper in games; he’s averaging just 5IP a start.
  • Bremner: gave up 4 in 6ip to UC Riverside while striking out 10 and throwing 107 pitches, then 3 in 7IP against Cal Poly while striking out 13 … and throwing 119 pitches! 119 pitches. In April. Not good. I just don’t like the hittability of Bremner, and he’s not dominating good but not the SEC teams.
  • Arquette blew up in the last two weeks, raising his slash line from .321/.439/.604 to .383/.497/.780. Unfortunately, he did this on the back of a 3-game sweep of one of the worst teams in D1 Cal State Northridge, against whom he had a 9-13 series with 4 homers and another 4 walks. That’s one way to jack up your seasonal batting average 60 points in three days. To be fair, the weekend before OSU visited Cal State Fullerton and he blasted 2 dongs there as well; he now has 15 for the season. He’s clearly a top 5 pick; but is he 1-1?
  • Doyle continues to pile on stats against top teams. He took the ball against #11 Ole Miss two weeks ago and put up a heck of a line: 8 1/3rd, 3 hits, 2 walks, 14 Ks and got lifted when he walked a guy with a one run lead in the 9th. He was at 111 pitches at that point … and probably saved his arm in the process. A week later against the solid but not top 10 Kentucky he had a more typical ace line: 7ip, 4hits, 2Runs, 9/1 K/BB, pulled at 101 pitches. For the season: 7-1 with 2.48 ERA, 0.83 whip, 104/17 K/BB in 58IP. That’s a 16 K/9 rate for an SEC pitcher.
  • Houston: first time on this list, lets take a look. For the season he’s slashing .335/.449/.589. He’s got more walks than strikeouts, has 10 homers. He has cooled significantly from earlier in the season, when he was maintaining .400 BA well into the college season, and just finished up a series against Boston College where he went just 2-10. Scouts are watching every move now. We’ll see how long Houston stays in the rarified air of possible 1-1.
  • Anderson: first time on this list, so we’ll catch up with his full season. He’s another lefty starter; apparently 2025 is going to include three front-line left handed starters in the top 10-15 picks. Anderson as of this writing has a 3.92 ERA for the year but is getting attention for 91Ks in 57 ip, Doyle-like numbers. He’s LSU’s Friday night starter, so he gets the ball against the toughest opponents. Last two weeks; he gave up 6 runs in 4 2/3rds in a loss at #9 Auburn, then he gave up 5 in 5 2/3rds hosting #10 Alabama in a no-decision. My first time looking at his stuff and while I see lots of whiffs, I also see lots of runs. He may not be long for this analysis.
  • Holliday wasn’t as impressive in his big OK prep school showdown as he may have wanted: Law reports that his BP wasn’t impressive and he waved at a couple of curves in the games that call into question his approach. His defense was improved though and Law threw out a Corey Seager comp, and Law thinks he could go “anywhere from 1st to 6th overall.” My thinking right now is this: If you want a bit of a project who could have a superstar SS/cleanup hitter ceiling, and if you trust your player development camp on the hitting side, you draft Holliday. If you’re the Nats, you let someone else assume that much risk.
  • Hernandez threw a CG in the NHSI quarter finals with this line: 7ip, 3H 1R, 0ER, 11/1 K/BB. Baseball America wrote it up and he sounds amazing: sitting mid 90s, hitting 99 in the 7th inning, showed a 70-grade changeup. There’s a ton of video showing dozens of pitches at the BA link; he has a slow, deliberate motion, hides the ball well, throws 4 pitches, got 10 swing and misses off the change. Could he go 1-1? Law’s analysis was a little less rosy, noting that Hernandez is generating velocity more with his arm than body (a huge red flag for future arm/shoulder injuries)
  • Carlson: in the same NHSI event, he… did not show up at the plate. He played SS and batted 5th behind cleanup-hitter Hernandez and went a combined 2-12 with 2 singles, a walk, and a sac fly. Their team Corona (which headed into the event the #1 ranked team in the country by every major rankings shop MaxPreps, PBR, PG, BA, SI) lost in the semis. Law’s analysis was more focused on defense, where he described Carlson as a “wizard on defense,” which bodes well and continues to support Carlson for at least the 1st round.
  • Cunningham: no news.
  • Willits is super young (he reclassified from 2206 class), which makes him a darling of some scouting projections (you’re drafting a top talent at 17yrs 7months). He’s a 6’1″ baseball rat from a baseball family who switch hits and has a 60 hit tool and 55s across the board otherwise. Law liked him all around, but the lack of power projection will keep him lower than his fellow prep hitters. But, he projects very highly with bat-to-ball skills. I don’t think he’s anywhere in the conversation for 1-1 but he is worth mentioning b/c analytical models like McDaniel’s loves him for his already high floor.

The Race for 1-1 status: I think the Nats have four names in the mix: Arnold, Doyle, Holliday, and Hernandez. If I had to guess today, i’d say they go Doyle.

Written by Todd Boss

April 21st, 2025 at 9:55 am

Posted in Draft,Prospects

Eight Weeks into Spring Season 1-1 Candidate Check In

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Doyle pushing for 1-1. Photo via his Twitter account.

Here’s our fourth check-in on the 1-1 candidates. We’ve started to get some more draft content from the typical sources now that we’re through “Prospect Season” and past opening day.

The consensus on this draft so far from pundits seems to be this: there’s no clear-cut #1 overall pick, but the draft itself is pretty deep. So, bad for us at the top but teams that have multiple picks and lots of money to work with are ecstatic about the depth of talent they’ll be selecting in the 1-Supp and 2nd rounds.

Important Draft related Links that have published since our last posting:

  • Baseball America’s top 300 Draft Prospects for 2025. Dated 3/26/25, goes Arnold, Holliday, Bremner, Hernandez, and Arquette. LaViolette at 9, Doyle 16, Kilen in the 20s, and Taylor in the 30s so i’ve removed them.
  • Prospects Live Top 100 Prep Draft Prospects was posted on 4/1/25. Interestingly they put a new name at the top over the 3 existing names; one Billy Carlson from the same Corona HS as Seth Hernandez. Wow, what a team; can you imagine having two first round talents on the same HS team? Anyway, if you want to read more scouting reports on the Prep kids in the mix, go to the above link to read about them.
  • Right after doing their top 300 list, the team did a “Staff Draft” that ended up with a very interesting name at the top: Seth Hernandez. He would famously be the first ever prep RHP to be drafted 1-1 if this were to happen, and in their podcast this week the writer who took the pick basically said that the struggles of the other candidates combined with the raw talent of Hernandez had him making the pick.
  • Keith Law was onsite for Tennessee-TAMU, and got to see several guys we’re talking about. Notes below on Doyle and LaViolette primarily.
  • Ethan Holliday’s Oklahoma HS team has a matchup coming up with national power Eli Willits, which will be well covered so we’ll finally get some scouting. Law notes that the word on the street so far is that Holliday is hitting and fielding well, which helps his 1-1 case.

Aggregation Stats for College Baseball for Reference:

Link Block for the top guys under 1-1 consideration. I’ve got this whittled to 5 for now.

Prep Players who are in the running for 1-1:

Prospects guys we’re removing from 1-1 discussion for now and why.

Here’s some updated commentary.

  • LaViolette: continues to improve his season numbers, now slashing .294/.451/.633 for the season. That’s up from 284/.434/.568 two weeks ago. He’s hit for a ton of power in the last two weeks, helped by a mid-week game against Incarnate Word where he blasted 2 dingers for 7 RBI in a day. Against Tennessee last weekend he went 0-2 against Doyle (no shame there) and an up-and-down weekend otherwise. Creeping back into respect ability; now has 10 hrs and 6 SBs in 31 games on the year. Law’s report was not rosy: 20 swings, 10 misses, and he says basically he saw strikeouts and weak contact all weekend. Law puts him as a back of the 1st rounder at this point, and I may stop reporting on him after this post.
  • Arnold: two up and down starts since we last checked in: at Notre Dame he couldn’t get out of the 5th, needing 94 pitchers to go 4 2/3rds against the not-very-impressive ND squad. A week later at home he cruised against Wake Forest, a tougher team, but still needed 98 pitches to complete 5 innings. 10 ks/2 BB, 2 hits allowed, 2 HBP. He needed 98 pitches to get through 20 batters, which says to me … he’s not hitting the plate a whole lot and is going deep into counts.
  • Bremner: got lit up by Long Beach State, giving up 5 runs and getting yanked in the 4th. Not good. Turned around and got a 7ip/4h/10k outing against UC Davis. Here’s the problem; both these teams are sub .500 Big West rivals; we’re not talking about top competition here.
  • Arquette has cooled significantly, having two straight bad weekends. He went just 1-11 at Nebraska two weeks ago, then just 2-10 at home against UC Irvine to drop his season slash line to .321/.439/.604.
  • Doyle will continue to be on this post until the very end, since he’s the Friday starter for one of the best teams in the country, in the best division. There’s not a player in this draft that we won’t get a better sense of from now until June. In the last two weeks: he gave up 9 hits and 5 runs to South Carolina in a loss (still struck out 11), then frigging no-hit Texas A&M for 6 innings before getting yanked on 96 pitches. 6ip, 0hits, 8k/2bb. Law’s impression? Good. 95-99 on the fastball, a nearly unhittable splitter as his second pitch, then two other pitches that he struggled with (a 87-90 slider and a low-80s curve). He does mention that Doyle’s arm lags, that he’s got funky mechanics, but also that he’s athletic and repeats his motion well. Still, some clear pro reliever worry, not exactly something you want out of your 1-1 pick.

The Race for 1-1 status: I think four of the 5 college guys we’re tracking are playing their way out of the top spot. Right now I think 1-1 is either Doyle or Holliday. If I had to guess how the top 5 picks go right now, I’d guess Holliday, Doyle, Arnold, Hernandez, and Arquette.

Written by Todd Boss

April 7th, 2025 at 9:09 am

Posted in Draft,Prospects

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