Nationals Arm Race

I had a great idea this draft cycle. How do we tell which mock draft pundits actually do the best job of predicting the draft? Since I’ve got such hyper coverage of the draft going back a few years, this post circles back to the past few drafts, posts the actual top five players picked, then posts the final mock draft predicted top 5 from major pundits to see who is getting these things right. For the most part I have the same 8 pundits who do mocks going back to 2020.

I’ll include links to past content from this blog, which generally had links to the mock drafts leading up all the way to draft day. In each section there’s:

• Actual Draft top 5 link, which goes to baseball-reference.com’s draft database for that year.
• The Major Pundit final mock post here on nationalsarmrace.com from the day of the draft.
• Then, pundit by pundit a direct link to their final mocks published.

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2025 Draft: Actual top 5: Willits, Bremner, Anderson, Holliday, Doyle

Major Pundit final mocks

• Keith Law/The Athletic: 7/12/25 final mock: Anderson, Hernandez, Arquette, Holliday, Willits (3/5)
• Jim Callis/MLBPipeline 7/13/25 Final Mock: Anderson, Doyle, Hernandez, Holliday, Willits (4/5)
• Jonathan Mayo/MLBPipeline: 7/13/25 Final Mock: Anderson, Doyle, Hernandez, Holliday, Willits (4/5)
• Baseball America Staff. Final Mock 7.0 7/13/25: Anderson, Doyle, Hernandez, Holliday, Willits (4/5)
• ESPN/Kiley McDaniel: Mock 3.0 7/10/25: Anderson, Doyle, Hernandez, Holliday, Willits (4/5)
• Fangraphs/Eric Longenhagen: 2025 Mock 7/13/25: Willits, Doyle, Holliday, Anderson, Carlson (4/5)
• Mike Axisa/CBSSports First Round Prediction 7/13/25: Anderson, Doyle, Irish, Holliday, Willits (4/5)
• BleacherReport/Reuter: 7/12/25 final mock: Anderson, Doyle, Arquette, Holliday Willits (4/5)
• Prospects 1500: Final Mock 7/13/25: Anderson, Arnold, Hernandez, Holliday, Willits (3/5)
• Prospects Live Final Mock 7/12/25: Anderson, Doyle, Hernandez, Holliday, Arnold (3/5)
• Baseball Prospect Journal: Mock 4.0 7/20/25: Anderson, Arnold, Arquette, Holliday, Willits (3/5)

What Happened? Well, the ONLY pundit to have the Nats taking Willits 1-1 in the end was Longenhagen, but then the rest of his top 5 was way off. Willits was in nearly everyone’s top 5, but primarily going 5th to the Cards. Mostly everyone had Holliday-Colorado, but Bremner at #2 was a massive shock. The Nats parting ways with their GM a week before the draft seemed to grease the skids to go with youth versus polish, and hence the near consensus 1-1 Anderson slipped to the Mariners, who were probably shocked and ecstatic at the development. Guys frequently mentioned in the top5 all spring who slipped out: Arquette slipped to #7, Hernandez to #6, and Arnold all the way to the Athletics at #11.

Who was Closest? Longenhagen the only one to get Willits right. Most of the pundits got 4 of the top 5 right ultimately, but not in the correct order. Nobody had Bremner in the top 5.

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2024 Draft: Actual top 5: Bazzana, Burns, Condon, Kurtz, Hagen Smith.

Major Pundit final mocks:

• The Athletic/Keith Law’s Final Mock 7/14: Bazzana, Condon, Burns, Montgomery, Caglianone. (3/5)
• MLBPipeline/Jim Callis Final Mock 7/14: Wetherholt, Condon, Burns, Bazzana, Griffin (3/5)
• MLBpipeline/Mayo Final Mock 7/14: Wetherholt, Condon, Burns, Bazzana, Montgomery (3/5)
• Baseball America/Collazo Final Mock 7/14: Wetherholt, Condon, Burns, Bazzana, Caglianone (3/5)
• ESPN/KIley McDaniel Final Mock 3.1 7/14/24: Bazzana, Condon, Burns, Wetherholt, Caglianone (3/5)
• Fangraphs/Longenhagen Mock 7/11/24: Bazzana, Condon, Burns, Montgomery, Caglianone. (3/5)
• CBSsports/Mike Axisa: Final Mock 7/14/25: Bazzana, Condon, Smith, Montgomery, Caglianone (3/5)
• BleacherReport/Reuter final mock 7/13/24: Bazzana, Condon, Burns, Montgomery, Caglianone. (3/5)

What happened? Bazzana surprised many and took a haircut off the 1-1 draft slot, but word had gotten out by draft day so the best connected pundits knew. Everyone had Condon & Burns , though not in the right order. Oakland at #4 was “on” Kurtz for a while, then the industry thought they backed off, but they picked him anyway, and nobody had him in their mocks. The joke is on the industry; Kurtz is destroying MLB pitching this year for the Athletics and had a famous 4-home run game a few weeks ago. Lastly the Smith pick was a shock to everyone. Montgomery and his broken leg was in most people’s top 3; he ended up slipping past the Nats to #12.

Who was Closest? So, most everyone got 3 out of 5, with nearly everyone having the same three names at the top. Props to those who didn’t have Wetherholt going 1-1 as the “winners” of this mock draft cycle.

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2023 Draft: Actual top 5: Skenes, Crews, Clark, Langford, Jenkins.

Major Pundit final mocks (I did not do a mock draft collection in 2023)

• The Athletic/Keith Law Final Mock: Langford, Skenes, Crews, Clark, Gonzalez (4/5)
• MLBPipeline/Jim Callis Final Mock: Langford, Skenes, Crews, Clark, Jenkins (5/5)
• MLBpipeline/Jonathan Mayo Final Mock: Langford, Skenes, Crews, Clark, Gonzalez (4/5)
• Baseball America/Carlos Collazo final Mock 7/9/23: Langford, Skenes, Crews, Clark, Jenkins (5/5)
• ESPN/KIley McDaniel final mock v3.1 7/9/23: Langford, Skenes, Crews, Clark, Gonzalez (4/5)
• Fangraphs/Longenhagen mock v2.0 7/9/23: Langford, Skenes, Crews, Jenkins, Clark (5/5)
• CBSsports/Mike Axisa: final mock 7/9/23: Crews, Skenes, Langford, Clark, Teel (4/5)
• BleacherReport/Joel Reuter final mock 7/8/23: Skenes, Crews, Langford, Clark, Gonzalez (4/5)

What happened? The industry was convinced that the cheapskate Pirates were shying away from bonus demands from Crews/Boras and wanted a bat over an arm, leading them to Langford. Instead, on draft day Pittsburgh stayed true to their board and took the consensus 1-1 pick in Skenes, which then cascaded Crews to us at #2. Langford blew through the minors and looked like a steal for Texas as #4.

Who was Closest? Several pundits got the top 5 right, but only Bleacher Report had Skenes correctly going 1-1. Interestingly, the player most missed with (Gonzalez) fell to 15th in the draft (??), a weird set of events.

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2022 Draft: Actual top 5: Holliday, Jones, Rocker, Johnson, Green

Major Pundit final mocks

• Keith Law final mock 7/16/22: Holliday, Jones, Green, Collier, Nats take Parada (3/5)
• MLBpipeline Callis final mock 7/17/22: Jones, Holliday, Green, Johnson, Nats take Parada (4/5)
• MLBpipeline Mayo final mock 7/17/22: Jones, Holliday, Parada, Johnson, Nats take Lee. (3/5)
• Baseball America: Final Mock 7/15/22: Holliday, Jones, Parada, Johnson, Nats take Green. (4/5)
• ESPN McDaniel mock 3.0 7/15/22: Jones, Holliday, Parada, Collier, Nats take Berry. (2/5)
• Fangraphs/Longenhagen: mock 7/17/22: Johnson, Jones, Holliday, Neto, Nats take Parada (3/5)
• CBSsports Mike Axisa final mock 7/14/22: Johnson, Jones, Holliday, Collier, Nats take Green (4/5)
• Bleacher Report/Reuter: 7/16/22 final mock: Jones, Holliday, Johnson, Collier, Nats take Parada (3/5)

What happened? Most of the pundits got this relatively close, though there was a lot of mention of Kevin Parada in the top 5 (he ended up going 11th). Everyone had Holliday-Jones going 1-2. Some had Brooks Lee or Cam Collier in the top 5: Lee slipped to 8th while Collier went 18th (how do you go from a top 5 pick to 18th?)

Who was Closest? Baseball America was probably the closest here, getting four of the top 5, correctly predicting 1-2, and getting the Nats’ Green pick.

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2021 Draft: Actual top 5: Davis, Leiter, Jobe, Mayer, Cowser. Nats at 11 get House.

Major Pundit final mocks

• The Atlantic (Keith Law) Mock 7/9/21: Mayer, Rocker, Leiter, Davis, Watson. Nats land Jobe (3/5)
• MLBPipeline (Callis) Final Mock 7/10/21: Mayer, Leiter, Jobe, Davis, Watson. Nats take Bednar. (4/5)
• MLBPipeline (Mayo) Final Mock 7/10/21: Mayer, Leiter, House, Davis, Watson. Nats get Madden (3/5)
• Baseball America v7.0 day of: Mayer, Watson, Jobe, Leiter, Lawlar. Nats take Madden (3/5)
• ESPN/McDaniel: 7/11/21 mock: Mayer, Leiter, Jobe, Davis, Watson. Nats take Madden (4/5)
• Fangraphs/Longenhagen day-of Mock 3.0: Mayer, Leiter, Jobe, Davis, Lawlar. Nats go Madden (4/5)
• CBSsports (Axisa) Mock 7/9/21: Mayer, Lawlar, House, Leiter, Davis. Nats take Jobe (3/5)
• Bleacher Report (Reuter) mock 7/11/21: Meyer, Lawlar, Jobe, Leiter, Cowser. Nats Madden (3/5)

What happened? Pittsburgh got a big haircut off of Henry Davis at 1-1, which threw off everyone’s mock draft. Then, Rocker inexplicably slipped to #11 and the Mets, where he infamously didn’t sign due to arguments about medicals. For whatever reason, House slipped all the way to the Nats at #11 and we nabbed him, in a series of moves similar to the Rendon draft. Ty Madden, who many of the pundits had the Nats taking at #11, didn’t go until the 32nd overall pick and just made his MLB debut.

Who was Closest? Jim Callis, Longenhagen and McDaniel hit on their first four picks, just getting them in the wrong order. Props to Reuter for being the only one to mention Cowser who goes 5th

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2020 Draft: Actual top 5: Torkelson, Kierstad, Meyer, Lacy, Martin. Nats at #22 get Cavalli.

Major Pundit final mocks

• The Athletic (Keith Law) 6/10/20 Final Mock: Torkelson, Martin, Lacy, Veen, Meyer (4/5)
• MLBpipeline (Jim Callis) 6/10/20 final mock draft: Torkelson, Martin, Lacy, Veen, Meyer. (4/5)
• MLBpipeline (Jonathan Mayo) 6/10/20 final mock draft: Torkelson, Martin, Lacy, Veen, Meyer. (4/5)
• Baseball America (Collazo) 6/10/20 final Mock Draft v8.0 ; Torkelson, Martin, Lacy, Veen, Meyer (4/5)
• ESPN (Kiley McDaniel) 6/10/20 final mock draft: Torkelson, Martin, Lacy, Hancock, Meyer (4/5)
• Fangraphs (Eric Longenhagen) Mock 3.0 6/10/20: Torkelson, Martin, Lacy, Veen, Meyer (4/5)
• CBSSports (Mike Axisa): 6/9/20 final mock: Torkelson, Martin, Lacy, Veen, Hancock.  (3/5)
• Bleacher Report (Reuter): 6/10/20 final mock: Torkelson, Martin, Lacy, Veen, Meyer (4/5)

What happened? In the weird Covid year, most all the pundits were really “on” this draft, getting 4 of the top 5 correct. Everyone missed on the Orioles taking Kierstad at #2 and for good reason: He took $1.5M or so off his asking price, a deal no one could have known about.

Who was Closest? Nearly all our major pundits got 4 of 5 this year.

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Final scores? Adding up top-5 performance for the last six drafts:

• Keith Law/The Athletic: 20/30.
• Jim Callis/MLBPipeline 24/30
• Jonathan Mayo/MLBPipeline: 21/30
• Baseball America/Collazo 23/30
• ESPN/Kiley McDaniel: 21/30
• Fangraphs/Eric Longenhagen: 23/30
• Mike Axisa/CBSSports 21/30
• BleacherReport/Reuter: 21/30

So there you have it: Jim Callis is the best, closely followed by the BA’s Collazo and Fangraphs Longenhagen. Keith Law brings up the rear, having missed out on one fewer top-5 pick than the collection of Mayo, Axisa, and Reuter. Of course, it bears noting that the entire spread is 4 picks across 6 drafts, so maybe this isn’t as conclusive as I’m making it sound 🙂

Here’s the four month check-in with all our top 20 (and some) prospects. This mostly does a July focus on the prospects being mentioned, but sometimes mentions season-long stats, which are as of 8/1/25 as best as possible.

This is our prospects as I ranked them prior to the season: If i was to re-rank prospects today a big chunk of these guys would be graduated or moved. Plus, we picked up at least six guys who will feature in our top 30 at the trade deadline; i’ll put those after the top 20 in a special section to highlight their pre-Nats stats.

#1. Dylan Crews OF (CF): Missed all of May and all of June with oblique issue, but is finally doing a rehab assignment in AAA and should be back soon. Was not hitting well before hand. Temperature: on ice, 2026 possibly a lost season.

#2 Travis Sykora RHP (Starter): What a turnaround; in a month’s time he went from a promotion to AA to needing Tommy John surgery. Temperature: on ice til 2027.

#3 Brady House 3B: Is now firmly entrenched as the 3B starter, improved his slash line in July to .270/.276/.392. Only walked once in the month; that has to improve. Needs more power too but he’s trending well. Temperature: Hot for making majors, warming up in the MLB.

#4 Jarlin Susana RHP (Starter). Seems to have dodged the TJ bullet so far with his UCL Sprain; done a few rehab starts and should be back in full-time action in AA by mid-August. Temperature: hopefully warming up soon.

# 5 Seaver King SS. Another awful month for King: .221/.282/.286. I just can’t help but think that he’s been over promoted. Yeah he was a 10th overall pick, from a big conference. But he’s just not cutting it in AA. It sure looks like we got screwed in this draft: Konnor Griffin (taken just before King) is now the #1 prospect in the entire minors per Baseball America and MLBpipeline. Rainer (taken just after us): #34 by MLBpipeline in Detroit’s system. Montgomery (the guy I really wanted): #26, in AA as well, .800 ops for the season jumping up 3 levels instead of getting over-promoted to AA before he was ready. *sigh*. Temperature: cold.

# 6 Yohandy Morales 1B got hot in a hurry in AAA: .292/.360/.510 slash in July. Nice. If he could present as a legitimate 1B/DH type in the majors, we could stop buying veteran retreads and hope they turn into a trade asset. His picture reminds me of the great Michael Morse, by the way. Temperature: warming up nicely.

#7 Cayden Wallace 2B/3B: improved in July from an awful June but is still bad: .219/.301/.356. MLBPipeline has dropped him 20-some spots in their rankings, and I can’t believe i ranked him #7 in the system this spring. Phew. Temperature: ice cold.

# 8 Cade Cavalli RHP (Starter): 0-5 with a 7.50 ERA, a 1.71 WHIP and a .340 BAA. We’re running out of excuses for Cavalli upon his return from 1.5 years off. Tommy John recovery isn’t 100% guaranteed. Temperature: Not impressing.

#9 Alex Clemmey LHP (Starter): only made 3 starts in July thanks to going to the Futures game. He took a small step back in those three starts but still was solid for the month. I wonder why the team hasn’t promoted him this year; its not like Wilmington is in a playoff race. Temperature: staying hot.

# 10 Robert Hassell III OF (CF): After getting demoted from MLB after his initial call up, Hassell didn’t do what many do (which is struggle, pout, or otherwise underperform): no: he frigging tore up AAA this month: .341/.439/.473. This has earned him a return to the majors and more playing time. Can’t ask for anything more. Temperature: scorching in July, now back in the show.

#11 Caleb Lomavita C: Not a great july: .246/.269/.338. First full pro season as the full time C in Wilmington may be wearing on him. Temperature: cool.

# 12 Luke Dickerson SS: has hit a wall in Low-A: he slashed just .197/.244/.276 for the month. He’s still starting, despite the promotion of rising prospect Angel Feliz. After such a promising start I sure hope he’s not hitting a wall already. Temperature: cold

# 13 Andry Lara RHP (Reliever): has been kept on the 26-man roster as the “Tanner Rainey” of 2025: the 8th guy out of 8 who only goes into the game if the team is winning or losing by more than 6 runs. Lots of “8-GF in an 8-1 loss” type logs. And he’s getting hit. While in AAA in July he wasn’t exactly Sandy Koufax either. Eh: he’s still only 22. Temperature: cold.

#14 Tyler Stuart RHP (Starter): He left his 6/28/25 start without getting out of the first, and it was announced this week he’s undergone Tommy John. Poof: see you in 2027. Temperature: on ice for a while.

#15 Daylen Lile OF (CF): he’s now exhausted rookie status with more than 150 PAs, and he’s holding down a starting job in the Nats outfield. He now has a 97 OPS+ for the season. Can’t argue with that for a 22yr old. Temperature: hot for getting there, warming up a bit.

#16 Kevin Bazzell C: finally found his footing at the plate this month: .288/.383/.327. Where’s the power? Zero homers this season in Low-A as a college Jr draftee from a big school. The team is keeping him as the Catcher nearly full time; just a few DH games so far. Temperature: warming.

#17 Jake Bennett LHP (Starter): They babied the hell out of him in his come back, but he’s now off rehab starts and back in AA where he belongs. First two AA starts? Not good. Shelled. He needs more time.. Temperature: cold for now, hopefully warms up.

#18 Brad Lord RHP (Starter/Reliever): basically the Nats’ 2nd best pitcher this year, and now with Soroka traded and Williams hurt will be in the rotation going forward. 18th rounder; in the rotation. Temperature: Red Hot all around.

#19 Angel Feliz SS: struggled in the last month of the FCL season (.191/.304/.294) but promoted up to Low-A nonetheless. He’ll split time at SS with Dickerson the rest of the way. Temperature: cooled off

#20 Andrew Pinckney OF (CF or corner): had a very solid AAA month: .284/.363/.556. 6 homers in 21 games. He can play any of the three OF positions and has essentially split his time almost equally amongst the three this season for Rochester. Is there something here? Temperature: warming

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In honor of the trade deadline. here’s the 10 prospects we’ve acquired with their season stats and levels. They’re listed in rough order of their prospect ranking:

• Linan, Sean Paul: SP: Age 20. 3-3, 2.78 ERA, 1.09 whip as a starter in low- and high-A.
• Franklin, Christian: OF (CF) Age 25, .265/.393/.427 in AAA. 8 HR, 12 SB playing CF fulltime
• Swan, Eriq: SP Age 23 4-3, 4.43 ERA, 1.38 whip as a starter in High-A. 77/46 K/BB in 69ip.
• Cruz, Ronny: SS Age 18. .270/.314/.431 in AZL. 6 triples, 2 homers; lots of gap power.
• Randall, Josh: SP Age 22. 5-5, 3.92 ERA, 1.32 whip in Low-A this season.
• Beeter, Clayton: RP Age 26: 3.10 ERA in AAA as a setup/closer type: 33/16 K/BB in 20 ip.
• Sales, R.J.: SP Age 22: 4-3, 2.71 ERA, 1.12 whip in 16 Low-A starts.
• Eder, Jake RP (lefty): Age 26: 4.91 ERA in 8 MLB appearances this season.
• Martinez, Browm, OF, Age 18, .404/.507/.632 slash line in 18 games this year but on 60-day dl
• Brown, Sam: 1B age 23: .243/.350/.358 as a full-time 1B in AA this year.

The first 6 of these 10 guys are already in our top 30 on both BA and MLBpipeline lists. I like Sales and Martinez for the back-end of that list at some point. Eder might be a 4-A lefty reliever, and Brown might be a throw in. But we got 10 guys into the system in a week, which is great.

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Notables #20 and above by the level they mostly played in July 2025

In MLB:

• Six of the Eight relievers we now have in our MLB bullpen were Washington grown: Rutledge, Henry, Ferrer, Brzycky, Ribalta, and Lara. That’s awesome. We complain a lot about not developing players, and yeah its “just the bullpen,” but this is meaningful.
• Seven of the eight relievers in the bullpen were in the minors for this team at some point this year and have been promoted up. That’s also great to see; the farm is working.
• Now, have they been awesome? No, not really.

in AAA:

• He was a MLFA in the off-season, so not entirely a “prospect” but Nick Schnell had himself a month in AAA: .385/.449/.854 (!) for an ops of 1.303. He hit 11 homers in the month. Wow. Where does this guy fit into the OF hierarchy?
• #31 Chapparo hit just .203 for the month but still managed to slug his way to an OPS of .849.
• #32 Baker still hanging around: he hit over .300 for the month again. He’ll get his shot.
• #28 Alvarez: I know he isn’t sexy, but he seems to deserve a shot. Maybe the next time we need a starter we can add him to see what he can do.

In AA:

• #101 Brandon Boissiere certainly is putting a kickstart into his career: .324/.444/.432 for the month in AA after putting up a couple years of mendoza line BAs.
• #25 Made: remember when i was all excited b/c he hit the crap out of the ball one month? July: .156/.239/.297. Ouch.
• I was so down on Riley Cornelio last off-season I didn’t even have him in my top 100. Now? He might be the Nats minor league pitcher of the year. July in AA: 4 starts, 1.66 ERA, 0.88 whip, .147 BAA. He’s a top 25 prospect right now, might get better.

In High-A:

• #39 Sam Peterson got promoted and was basically High-A’s best hitter in June. Then, he was also the best Wilmington hitter in july, going /317/.446/.600 in that hitter’s death park in Delaware.
• SS Courtland Lawson (born in Reston!) had a nice month, slashing .297/.358/.446 … but one has to wonder what the plan is here? He was in AA all last year, barely hit, got demoted to high-A to make way for 1st rounder King, and now he’s 25 and still in A-ball in his 4th pro season.
• #79 Gavin Dugas went just 5-63 for the month (.079 BA) and, well, might be in serious trouble as a 25yr old in A-ball who was a $20k senior sign.
• #42 Cranz has picked up where he left off in Low-A. Maybe we try him as a starter?

In Low-A:

• #87 Jorgelys Mota was hitting .400 for the month and starting to push his way into top 30 area in BA and MLB when he hit the DL this month.
• Holy cow, Vaquero is hitting! .329/.361/.553 with 3 homers and a ton of XBH for the month.
• #67 Yoel Tejeda Jr and Davian Garcia (who I didn’t even rank in my top 100 pre-season) both pitched their way out of Low-A as 2024 draft picks. Garcia has the bigger draft bonus as a 6th rounder but Tejeda has had a great season too. Both now showing up in the 25-30 range of prospect lists and will finish out the year in High-A.
• #23 Elijah Green is back in full-season ball after destroying the FCL. Still only hitting .220 but his Ks are down. Not sure where they can go with this guy.

In FCL:

• The FCL is over; lots of these guys only got 5-6 innings for the month so difficult to pass judgement. Most of the guys moved up at the end of the season were more age based than performance based: the likes of Johnson, Farias, Otanez, Kane, and Montero were all 23 and still in Rookieball, so they had to move up.
• Last month’s darlings Sir Jamison Jones and Dashyll Tejada both struggled to finish out FCL. Wish the season was longer.

In the DSL, we can’t really do monthly splits so here’s a quick look at the six hitters in my top 100 pre-season. Then I’ll add in the guys newly impressing and starting to pop up in top 30 lists.

• #22 Victor Hurtado is still not hitting, slashing just .223/.370/232 for the year.
• #29 Brayan Cortesia is still crushing: .344/.459/.400.
• #37 Daniel Hernandez continues to be highly regarded on major prospect shops but it isn’t showing on the field: ..215/.270/.252.
• #66: Rony Bello has taken a nose dive since a strong start: .224/.333..343.
• #70 Hector Liriano: hitting .185 as a 1B? that’s not going to cut it.
• #103 Juan Obispo has maintained his solid line all season: .317/.388/.450.

Meanwhile, Marconi German, a 2025IFa, has exploded onto the scene: .282/.485/.538 so far this year in DSL with 7 homers as the starting SS for the team. He might be the find of the season.

On the pitching side, our DSL’s rotation ace Juan Reyes continues to lead the staff in whip despite being a starter: 9starts he’s got a 2.51 ERA and a shutout this season.

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That’s July.

This is the 4th such review of all our rotations, checking in on the latest month’s worth of production and doing some analysis. Given that the trade deadline just passed, as we go level by level I’ll discuss who is gone, who we added, and guess what may happen next.

Each team section analysis will have the same items: current rotation, changes in the last month, observations, next guy to get promoted (if its in the minors), next guy to get cut, and then a few comments about relievers.

All stats are as of 7/31/25.

Important links for this analysis:

• Big Board
• Nats MLB stats: at baseball-reference.com
• AAA Rochester stats: (all minor league stats at milb.com)
• AA Harrisburg stats
• High-A Wilmington stats
• Low-A Fredericksburg Stats
• FCL Nationals Stats
• DSL Nationals Pitching Stats

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We’ll start with the Majors.

• Opening Day 2025: Gore, Irvin, Parker, Soroka, TWilliams
• End of April 2025: Gore, Irvin, Parker, TWilliams, Lord
• End of May 2025: Gore, Irvin, Parker, Soroka, TWilliams (back to the original)
• End of June 2025: Gore, Irvin, Parker, Soroka, TWilliams
• End of July 2025: Gore, Irvin, Parker, Lord, Ogasawara

Changes since end of last Month: Two big changes: Williams got hurt, hit the DL and was announced to need a “brace” procedure: boom done for the year. He was replaced in the rotation by Lord, completing Lord’s amazing journey to the major league rotation as an 18th round pick. Then at the trade deadline we moved Soroka. This led to the recall of Ogasawara, who will take up the 5th starter spot. It was either Ogasawara or Cavalli, who has done nothing to impress since getting off the DL.

Rotation Observations: Gore’s July was .. not good. Ironic in that he started to get trade buzz just as he was driving production wise. 6.75 ERA for the month, but he didn’t get moved so now he can focus on being good the rest of the year so we can trade him this coming off-season. Irvin improved but still had a 4.55 ERA month. Parker had a 6.04 ERA in 4 July starts. Lord is being eased back into starting so is only going 3-4 innings a start, so we’ll withhold judgement. Ogasawara remains tbd.

Next guy to get cut/demoted: Ogasawara; I can’t imagine he’ll hang in the rotation and we may see Cavalli or a call-up at some point soon.

Bullpen comments: Our bullpen is now almost entirely guys who we’ve promoted from our minor leagues this season. Here was our opening day bullpen versus today (this includes 8/1 callups Ribalta, Loutus)

• Opening Day: Finnegan, Lopez, Sims, Ferrer, Poche, Salazar, Ribalta, Lord
• 8/1 post trade deadline: Ferrer, Henry, Rutledge, Pilkington, Brzycky, Loutus, Ribalta, Lara.

What churn. Finnegan traded, Lopez released, Sims released, Poche released, Salazar demoted, and Lord to the rotation. We still have a few 40-man options in AAA (Thompson, Beeter, and Eder), so I’d imagine we’ll be seeing the new guys next.

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AAA Rochester

• Opening Day 2025: Alvarez, Lara, Ogasawara, Choi, Solesky
• End of April 2025: Alvarez, Lara, Solesky, Shuman, Cavalli (rehab)
• End of May 2025: Alvarez, Solesky, Shuman, Cavalli, Sampson
• End of June 2025: Alvarez, Solesky, Shuman, Cavalli, Sampson
• End of July 2025: Alvarez, Solesky, Cavalli, Conley, tbd (was Ogasawara)

Changes since end of last month: Shuman was dumped out of the rotation (as predicted last month) for Ogasawara, Sampson was demoted to AA after getting hurt and spending some time on the DL. Ogasawara as of this writing hasn’t been replaced on the AAA roster, nor have the other promotions (I have Rochester at just 24 of 28 slots). I’d guess either Shuman back or Sampson promoted back to AAA as the 5th guy.

Rotation Observations: Ogasawara had a couple of clean starts in July after coming off DL. Alvarez and Conley’s month was 4.00 era-ish and decent if not spectacular peripherals. Solesky struggled badly; ERA above 9.00, whip above 2.00. The big news is that Cavalli just doesn’t seem to have it right now; 7.50 ERA in 5 July starts. He gave up 33 hits in 24 innings; that’s just not good enough. If he’s working on something fine, but if this is what we have, that’s not good.

Next guy to get Promoted: Though Cavalli is the sole starter on the 40-man, if a need pops up I’d add and Promote either Alvarez or Conley. Conley is 30 with no MLB time so that’d be a great story, but Alvarez deserves it too.

Next guy to get cut/demoted: Solesky; the MLFA who we got out of indy ball got crushed this month, and with some upwards pressure bubbling up from the lower levels, he may get slid out of a job.

Bullpen comments: Bravo to Pilkington for finally getting promoted after being excellent all season. Same with the likes of Loutus and Brzycky. As for the rest of the bullpen … not much good to report.

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AA Harrisburg

• Opening Day 2025: Shuman, Luckham, Saenz, Susana, Atencio
• End of April 2025: Luckham, Saenz, Susana, Choi, Soroka (rehab)
• End of May 2025: Luckham, Saenz, Choi, Cornelio, Conley (with multiple Gomez openers)
• End of June 2025: Luckham, Choi, Cornelio, Conley, Stuart with Lara, Sykora coming in at end of month.
• End of July 2025: Luckham, Choi, Cornelio, Bennett, Huff/Schultz openers (with Sampson, Sykora, Lara each getting 1 start)

Changes since end of last month: A busy month for the AA rotation: Conley got promoted, and he was mostly replaced by Bennett. Stuart pitched for a month and then hit the 60-day DL (not good). He was mostly replaced by a couple of relievers doing “opener” gigs. At the end of the month Sampson returned from AAA D/L to make a start. Lastly, the big news: Sykora made one July 5th start, hit the DL, and now he needs Tommy John. Dagger.

Rotation Observations: Susana is doing rehab starts after 2 months of radio silence; so we’ll see what happens. Luckham and Choi struggled badly in July. Bennett’s introduction to AA has not started smoothly. Sampson’s one start isn’t enough to go on, and at 33 it’s kind of ridiculous for him to be in AA. The bright spot? Frigging Riley Cornelio, who continues to tear through the minors in 2025. 1.66 ERA and 0.88 whip in AA in July. I’ve been questioning this guy for two years; suddenly he’s one of our system’s best arms. Bravo.

Next guy to get Promoted: I got the Conley promotion right from last month; this month I’d say that Sampson needs to go back up just based on age/experience. But on performance, its Cornelio. I don’t know if he’s ready yet, perhaps he continues for another month and finishes things out in AA with an eye towards starting next season in AAA.

Next guy to get cut/demoted: The answer for the 2nd month in a row is Rule-5 guy Choi. Though Luckham may have reached his ceiling as a player.

Bullpen comments: Erick Mejia’s journey back to the majors as a reliever looks great in AA: a spotless month; 7 games, 8ip, 1 hit. I’d put him in AAA right now. Junior Santos also had a zero ERA for the month, and Thomas Schultz looks great. If they move a couple of the AAA guys up, I could see a few of these AA studs moving up in turn.

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High-A Wilmington

• Opening Day 2025: Clemmey, Cornelio, Kent, Sthele, Tepper
• End of April 2025: Clemmey, Cornelio, Kent, Sthele, Arias
• End of May 2025: Clemmey, Kent, Sthele, Sykora, Bennett, Stuart (rehab) plus a bunch of spot starts
• End of June 2025: Clemmey, Kent, Sthele, Bennett, and four rehab stars from Ogasawara/Lara
• End of July 2025: Clemmey, Kent, Sthele, Tolman, Susana rehab starts plus Tejada and Garcia late.

Changes since end of last month: Bennett made 3 more dominant starts and finally got pushed up to AA where he belongs. To take his place the team moved up both Tejada and Garcia from Low-A.

Rotation Observations: As noted, Bennett posted a 1.45 ERA in 3 starts and got moved up. Clemmey continues his great season: 2.81 ERA in his 3 starts in July. Kent showed a bit of fatigue in his first pro season, driving up to a 4.85 ERA for the month. Tolman continues to be excellent and I’m not sure why he’s not permanently installed in the rotation. Garcia and Tejada’s intro to High-A wasn’t pretty; they have the rest of the season to figure it out for 2026.

However, we’re about to see some major changes here, because the team acquired THREE new High-A starters in Randall, Swan, and Linan. By my count, there’s now at least 10-11 guys on the Wilmington roster who are “starters” … which is twice what we have room for.

Next guy to get Promoted: We got Bennett right from last month; Next we’ll see Susana returned from “rehab” to AA. If it was me i’d probably move up Tolman, who’s lefty, 25 and can be both a starter and a reliever.

Next guy to get cut/demoted: For the second month, nobody really. Sthele pitched well for the month, Kent isn’t going anywhere despite having a 4.60 ERA for the season (maybe the answer is, Kent gets an invisible “injury” and gets shut down to make room for the new guys).

Bullpen comments; nobody really notable pushing for a promotion right now.

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Low-A/Fredericksburg

• Opening Day 2025: Polanco, Meckley, Tejeda, Roman, DGarcia
• End of April 2025: Polanco, Meckley, Tejeda, Roman, DGarcia with Bennett making his 2025 debut
• End of May 2025: Polanco, Meckley, Tejeda, Roman, DGarcia with two “rehab” starts from Bennett/Sykora
• End of June 2025: Polanco, Meckley, Tejeda, Roman, DGarcia, Romero
• End of July 2025: Polanco, Meckley, Romero, Sullivan, Johnson

Changes since end of last month: After months, we got some movement here. Tejeda and DGarcia (finally) moved up, Roman (finally) axed from the rotation with his 8+ seasonal ERA. They were replaced with Sullivan off the DL and Johnson finally getting promoted up from the FCL despite being 23.

Rotation Observations: Tejeda and Garcia were excellent in July and were worthy to move up. Polanco was solid again but now faces a huge crush of starters in our Low- and High-A teams. Sullivan’s debut was excellent, which is nice to see. Johnson’s 2nd low-A start was bad. Lastly Romero got hit.

However, the team has created a crush here by promoting the FCL’s two best guys at the end of the month in Farias and Feliz (the FCL season ended on July 30th), plus added Sales in the trade window. So Low-A now has 8 guys for 5 spots. (post-publish correction, thanks FredMD; the Nats promoted Angel Feliz the SS, not Jose Feliz the pitcher).

Next guy to get Promoted: They moved up Tejeda and Garcia … now there’s no room in High-A even if someone in Low-A deserved it.

Next guy to get cut/demoted: We got Roman right from last month: i’d guess the team moves Johnson to the bullpen and might sideline Romero to make room for the new additions.

Bullpen comments: They finally promoted Cranz and Aldonis. Baldo need to go next; he’s 25 and isn’t being challenged in Low-A.

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FCL/Rookie

• Opening day: Feliz, Portorreal, Farias, Johnson, Rehab starts
• End of May 2025: Feliz, Portorreal, Farias, Johnson, Lunar
• End of June 2025: Feliz, Portorreal, Farias, Lunar, Sullivan (rehab)
• End of Season/End of July 2025: Feliz, Portorreal, Farias, Lunar, Johnson

Changes since end of last month: The season ended with Sullivan back in Low-A and Johnson doing the last few starts.

Rotation Observations: Sullivan overpowered rookie ball as expected. Feliz finished off an excellent FCL season with another month of sub 2.00 ERA. Portorreal was solid but didn’t earn the promotion at the end of the season. Lunar struggled. Lastly Farias had another iffy month but got moved up to low-A nonetheless, perhaps to see if he can cut it in Low-A the rest of the way in a sink or swim move.

Next guy to get Promoted: Sullivan and Farias got moved up at the end of the season in kind of age-related moves. Feliz should have moved up based on performance.

Next guy to get cut/demoted: n/a; end of season.

Bullpen comments: they moved up Kane as they should have. Nobody else in the FCL bullpen really pitched much worth of analysis in July.

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DSL/Rookie

• Opening day: JReyes, De La Cruz, Robles, Carrasco, Mejia
• End of June 2025: JReyes, De La Cruz, Robles, Carrasco, Torrellas
• End of July 2025: JReyes, De La Cruz, Robles, Torrellas, Carela

Changes since end of last month: Carrasco moved to the bullpen, replaced by Carela. Only 7 guys have made starts this year for DSL.

Rotation Observations: There’s no splits for DSL guys, so i can’t isolate July versus the whole year. Reyes and Carela have the best season numbers so far, both with sub 3.00 ERAs. Reyes is a 23IFA and is already 20 so no surprise here. Robles and De La Cruz have both been ok but wild. Torrellas needs more time.

Next guy to get Promoted: Reyes: he was a 23IFA and is a 20yr old in DSL: time to come stateside. This is exactly what I wrote last month and it remains true. This is a perfect example of why the loss of Short-A is troublesome.

Next guy to get cut/demoted: The two moved out of the rotation so far this year (Mejia and Carrasco) are both 25IFAs, where as everyone else in the rotation right now is a 23 or 24IFa.

Bullpen comments: Juan Lopez remains the only reliever that looks like he could move stateside right now, but with FCL done it won’t happen until next spring.

The 2025 Nats trade deadline has come and gone, and I have to admit, I’m surprised at how “well” the team did in moving its assets. In five separate deals the team moved nearly every one of its expiring contracts or useful-but-spare parts pieces and netted a ton of actual prospect depth along the way.

Earlier this month I previewed what we had to offer teams, and I went over a rather pessimistic take on what I thought we’d get in return for players. As it turned out, of everyone discussed, the only three non-injured guys we didn’t manage to move were Salazar, Bell, and deJong (none really a surprise given their overall performance for the season), and then on top of that we managed to move an outfielder in Alex Call who, while we like him, was certainly spare parts given the massive amount of OF depth we have in the system (in no particular order, Wood, Crews, Young, Lile, Hassell, Pinckney all at AAA or higher).

Lets take a quick run through the moves and talk about the value of the prospects we got back, which now populate a big chunk of our top 30 on the MLBpipeline board. As the day progressed and as of right now, our Big Board is updated with all transactions, with all newly acquired players assigned to their new levels.

Executive Summary: we traded 6 guys off the active roster, got back 10 prospects, 6 of which now sit in our top 30 as per mlbpipeline’s rankings. As I list them below i’ll put their new spot in our top 30.

Trade #1: Amed Rosario traded to NYY for #24 RHP reliever Clayton Beeter, OF Browm Martinez. Beeter is a former 2nd rounder, setup type guy, 40-man roster already, and is in AAA now but may get called up since we suddenly have some bullpen spots open. Big arm, lots of Ks, lots of walks. Martinez is the proverbial lottery ticket, an 18yr old in DSL who we immediately put onto the 60-day DL upon acquisition.

Trade #2: Chafin & Garcia traded to LAA for LHP reliever Jake Eder, 1B Sam Brown. Neither Eder or Brown are top 30 prospects; Brown in AAA with some MLB time this year, while Brown is repeating AA this year. Still, not bad return for two guys we signed off the veteran/MLFA heap in May and July respectively.

Trade #3: Mike Soroka traded to CHC for #11 OF Christian Franklin, #13 SS Ronny Cruz. Franklin heads to AAA, is an undersized corner type (similar to Lile) and adds to our existing OF depth, kind of surprising acquisition given what we already have in that regard. Cruz seems to be the prize, a 3rd round prep kid drafted last year, given decent money and who has solid power grades despite being a SS.

Trade #4: Kyle Finnegan traded to Det for #23 RHP starter Josh Randall and RHP starter RJ Sales. Randall is the prize; a 3rd rounder starter who heads to High-A sinker/slider guy with a 4.18 ERA this year in Low-A and who had just been moved up to High-A (he was assigned to Wilmington for us). Sales was a 10th rounder last year who doesn’t have he same upside, though he has far better numbers in Low-A this year than Randall and reports to our Low-A directly.

Trade #5: Alex Call traded to LAD for RHP starter #10 Sean Paul Linan and RHP starter #12 Eriq Swan. Linan seems to be the prize here, a 20-yr old IFA with really good K numbers in High-A this year to go along with a 2.65ERA. They even called him up for 2 spot starts in AAA (he got shelled). But don’t sleep on former 4th rounder Swan, a strong arm type who’s relatively new to pitching but has effortless upper 90s velocity.

So, to summarize, here’s where these 10 guys are reporting:

• AAA: OF Franklin, RHP reliever Beeter, LHP reliever Eder
• AA: 1B Brown
• High-A: three new SPs Randall, Swan, Linan
• Low-A: new SP Sales
• FCL: SS Cruz
• DSL: OF Brown

Possible Minor League impacts:

AAA: Beeter and Eder are both 40-man guys and we’re suddenly down a bunch of players at the MLB level so they may get callups soon. With Call’s trade, Hassell likely gets called up so Franklin can go right into starting lineup in Rochester.

AA: Brown joins a team that just promoted 1B only Boissiere and who has 1B-only Naranjo on the roster as well; not too much playing time to split when you have three primary 1Bs. Naranjo may be odd-man out, either going back to High-A or getting released since he’s a MLFA with little investment.

High-A: Three new SPs, all of whom are decent prospects, will stress that rotation as it is made up right now, especially since the team just promoted both Tejada and Garcia. There’s just not enough innings to go around in Wilmington right now and something will have to give. Kent isn’t going anywhere, though he’s showing signs of fatigue. Tolman is kind of a swingman type but has great numbers. Sthele is a fan favorite but may be topped out and could move to the pen. They’ve already moved out Arias and Caceres. Should be interesting to see how this rotation shakes out.

Low-A: Also just added three new arms via promotion in Sullivan, Farias, and Feliz and now they have 8 starters for 5 spots. There’s not an obvious existing candidate to dump out of the rotation to make way necessarily.

FCL: well, we just assigned our $8.2M SS Willits to FCL; Cruz isn’t playing above him. We also have $2.5M SS Coy Jones there. Maybe Cruz and Jones become 2B and 3B and get SS time here and there.

DSL: Brown immediately to 60-day DL, a curious acquisition to get someone who’s hurt upon arrival.

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Judgement: love the pouring in of arms. Six arms, some of whom immediately help in the bullpen, others who might stick as starters or who add to the roster of possible relievers. Why has our bullpen been so bad lately? Because we have not had the pipeline of starters-turned-relievers that we need from the last few drafts. Now we have a bunch more candidates for that.

All in all, a solid trade deadline haul.

I got a text from an old friend who I rarely chat with yesterday while out at dinner; Travis Sykora, seemingly out of nowhere, has to have Tommy John surgery.

What a dagger.

Sykora, of course, is our top prospect (or perhaps 2nd best with the addition of Eli Willits, who most prospect shops were installing above Sykora even before this news) and was a key near-term building block that this team could point to as a contributor that could help turn the tide on this 5-6 year “rebuilding” era. Now he’s suffered a mid-season UCL injury, which as we’ve now seen recently with Cavalli, Bennett, and Grey basically turns into a 1.5 season loss (the rest of this season and all of next).

My question is this: based on this injury, the team’s current form, the recent axing of the long-time GM, and the 2025 HS-heavy draft … are we about to see a sell-off and another bottoming out?

More and More I think the answer is yes.

The 2025 draft did not get one marquee player who can help this team in the near term; we could have drafted a polished college starter in Anderson and had him on the fast track to the MLB rotation by 2027, but we didn’t; instead we blew all our money on 17=18yr olds who might show up by next decade. Grey is out until next spring. Cavalli was out for nearly 2 years and is not looking like he’s come back in AAA. We’ve just lost Sykora. Susana has a sprained UCL now and is trying to come back, but he seems like a ticking time bomb. We lost Herz to TJ. Crews remains out (and, not for nothing hasn’t exploded onto the MLB scene).

It’s just too many things to work around, not if you’re not willing to spend money.

So what would this look like? A “sell-off?” Well; it would mean MacKenzie Gore out the door. He’s still got two years of control (as does Garcia, Grey, Adams, and Thompson) but he’s the prize. But he’s the one teams have to be asking about right now. If you’re not going to even try to compete for 3 more years, and you have a top-end arm in a league starved for them, and he’s represented by Boras (which means he’s never resigning), then … cash in. Cash in and sell high.

The team is 20 games under .500; what’s the point of a near Ace starter anymore? Trade him to a team with a thousand prospects, get a haul, and go from there.

Post publish update: after writing this, i see that WP’s Barry Svrluga basically wrote the same thing. Great minds think alike.

Note: I wrote this mostly on July 9th, during a flurry of writing about the ASG, Home run derby, draft content, new prospect lists, etc. Yesterday, thanks to my forgetting to publish it, we already made a trade, so i’ve gotta get this going.

Thanks to an awful month of June, as the team barrels towards the end of July’s trade deadline, we sit with an 42-62 record, good for the 2nd worst in the National League (behind only the record breaking Colorado Rockies) and 3rd-worst in all of baseball (which won’t matter for the 2026 draft, since we’ll be kicked out of the top 10 regardless thanks to our being a “big market” team … you know, big market team that has no TV deal and spends like its based in Toledo despite being owned by a family with an estimated net worth of $6.4Billion … but i’m digressing). Our penny-pinching owner has whacked his long-time GM, who has proven quite adept at trades, and now we enter the 2025 trade bonanza with few assets other teams are targeting.

That rosy analysis notwithstanding, here’s what our trade deadline could look like.

Legit Trade Assets: Kyle Finnegan

When looking at MLB-wide trade candidate lists, the sole player we have who routinely appears on these lists is our closer, Finnegan. He’s on a one-year deal, he’s pitched very well (167 ERA+), and he’s just the kind of guy who can net a decent prospect for a playoff-chasing team looking for more bullpen help (which, lets be honest, is all of them).

Exceeeeeept…. just like last year, Finnegan has managed to engineer the destruction of his trade value right as teams started to look at him. He Blew up in successive appearances on 7/12 and again 7/18, which together raised his season ERA from 2.36 to 4.37. Awesome. he’s gone from maybe fetching a top-15 prospect to maybe fetching a couple of rookie league lottery tickets.

Likely return: couple of low-end lottery ticket prospects.

FA-to-be Starters: Mike Soroka

Soroka’s injury and underperformance makes it very unlikely he gets moved. He’s been hurt, and hasn’t pitched great even if his FIP flatters his ERA. But, if they can move him and pay the rest of his salary, maybe we can get a low-ranked/high-risk prospect, like an arm on someone’s Low-A team who’s injured. Soroka in theory can start or pitch in relief, but one of his most likely suitors (his old team Atlanta) is also out of the playoff race and are sellers.

Likely return here: nothing

FA-to-be Relievers: Law, Salazar, Chafin, Luis Garcia.

We’ve already released multiple one-year FA relievers for underperformance (Lopez, Sims, Poche), an indictment of now-departed Rizzo’s latest attempt to build a bullpen via retread FAs. Among those left, Law is done for the season with injury, Salazar has sucked, Chafin has been decent, and Garcia just got signed. I can’t see getting anything for anyone of these guys, maybe Chafin if someone wants a veteran lefty.

Likely return here: nothing

FA-to-be Position players: Bell, Rosario, DeJong

Bell and DeJong have been major disappointments from a “give a veteran a pillow contract and hope they perform enough to give us something tangible at the trade deadline” perspective. Rosario has been solid at the plate and can play basically anywhere on the field, but frankly the market for utility guy in a league where every team has 3-4 such guys stashed in AAA seems weak.

Update: I was completely wrong about Rosario’s value, and we ended up flipping him for the Yankees’ 20th ranked prospect Beeker and a solid-hitting DSL outfielder named Martinez. That’s more than I could have hoped for.

likely return here: whatever we can get.

FAs after 2026: Lowe, Williams

Williams hurt, again, and besides that has sucked and is now on the 60-day likely done for the season. Lowe is hovering around 100 OPS+ with some power but probably isn’t really raising anyone’s eyebrows for a 1B/DH replacement. He has one more Arb year next winter, is already at $10M and frankly could be a non-tender candidate if he sticks around. Could he get moved? Maybe, if we send the cash, but it’s worth remembering he was traded for a middle reliever last off-season, so the odds of getting much for him seems low.

Likely return here: nothing.

The Destroy the Fanbase confidence option: MacKenzie Gore

He’s at just $2.8M this year and has two more arb years. He will be a long shot to even get to $10M next off-season even if he finishes high in Cy Young voting, and as a pre-arb healthy Ace-level starter he would net a pretty penny. But … as we’ve discussed, rebuilding teams don’t frigging trade the cornerstone pieces of the damn rebuild. Gore is the kind of player you use to get back into respectability, not trade for assets that won’t come due for another 4 years.

I wrote all of that on July 9th before this team fired its GM and drafted four HS draftees who basically won’t appear before 2030, and I now openly question where we are as a franchise. Ownership isn’t spending money, and we’re drafting 17yr olds. I now wonder if the entire management structure is of the belief that this “rebuild” is now a failure and if we’re not preparing for a massive sell-off of our current assets who will be FAs before we can compete again. Gore is 1-A on this list, a Boras client (meaning he won’t sign an extension) who is a FA in two years. He’s healthy now, he’s in demand now, and while I don’t think he’s netting a Soto-esque package if someone offered us three legit prospects for him right now, does this team say no?

All our pre-Arb players: the rest of the team fits in here.

I see no reason to trade someone like Henry, or Wood, or Abrams, or Young, or anyone of this ilk. We want to leverage these guys while they’re still cheap and see if they turn into all stars.

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Prediction? We get what we got for Rosario, a lottery ticket for Finnegan, and maybe move one other guy for a nothing-burger prospect. It’s just where we are; nothing left to cash in, and our off-season FAs have really disappointed.

With so many “senior signs” this year (five), I thought it’d be interesting to see our history with these guys and how they’ve turned out.

For definition purposes, a “Senior Sign” is a College Senior or a college player with no remaining eligibility who is drafted usually in the 8th, 9th, or 10th round entirely to save bonus dollars on their pick to allocate that money elsewhere in the draft. Usually these players sign for $10k these days, though in the early days we often gave them $25-$30k. The deck is already stacked against these guys: the team has almost zero bonus dollars invested in them, they’re already “old” the moment they arrive in Florida, and they have to be doubly as good as a guy with even a slot bonus in order to stick around.

Not only that, but (as a senior sign himself once told me), these guys generally have finished four years of college, may even have a degree, and find themselves at 22 or even 23 heading to a spring training facility full of 18-19 yr olds coming over from the DSL who barely speak English, are just as good but 4 years younger, and who are killing themselves for a few hundred dollars a week. These guys may say to themselves, “man, these guys are just as good as me but 4 years younger and with a ton more bonus dollars” and just hang ’em up.

The concept of these senior draftee draft picks in the back half of the top 10 rounds really only begun existing and being important starting with the draft slotting/bonus cap timeframe, which was implemented starting with the 2012 draft. So, we’ll go through these Senior signs starting with the 2012 class.

2012:

• Craig Manuel, C. 10th round $25k from Rice. Played for 4 years, made it to AA as a mostly backup catcher. had some local ties (born in Rockville MD). Decent career.
• Derek Self, RHP Reliever 9th round $25k from Louisville. Played out his entire 6-year ML contract with us, made it to AAA as a solid middle reliever. That’s a great outcome.

2013:

• David Napoli, RHP reliever 8th round $15k from Tulane. Couldn’t make the jump to High-A released after three seasons.
• Jake Joyce, RHP reliever 9th round $15k from Va Tech. Got one season in Short-A bullpen, released. This is basically the floor for a senior sign; one season in the pros, then cut.
• Brennan Middleton, SS 10th round $15k sign from Tulane. Two years in Low-A, released.

2014:

• Matthew Page, OF 10th round $30k from Oklahoma Baptist: Hung around for four years, got to High-A before released.

2015:

• David Kerian, 1B 9th round $25k from Illinois: released from Short-A after two seasons in Auburn.
• Taylor Guilbeau, LHP 10th round $25k from Alabama: turned into a decently effective LHP reliever for years, flipped to Seattle to help acquire Hunter Strickland in 2019. Got called up to Seattle’s MLB team, then got hurt. Waived, claimed by AZ, outrighted in 2021, then released. Shoulder injuries are brutal sometimes. First of our Sr. Signs to make the majors, though not with us.

2016:

• Joey Harris, C 9th rounder $10k from Gonzaga: played a year in rookie ball, got hurt and missed all of 2017, then released at the end of 2018 from low-A.
• Paul Panaccionne, SS 10th rounder $10k from Grand Canyon. played parts of 3 seasons and retired.

2017:

• Jared Brasher, RHP 8th rounder $10k from Samford: a weird one: he was in his 3rd season in Low-A and was pitching decently mid 2019 season when he was suddenly released. He had a sub 3.00 ERA but a lot of walks just prior to being released. I wonder if this was off-the-field related.

2018:

• Cropley, Tyler, C 8th rounder 10k from Iowa; we released him in 2020, but he got picked up by Kansas City and made it to AAA with them, even getting an NRI to MLB camp in 2024. Released ST 2024. Not a bad career.
• Driskill, Tanner, RHP 9th 10k from Lamar; missed two full years to injury and Covid, then got shelled in 2021 and was released.
• Shaddy, Carson, 2b 10th rounder 10k from Arkansas-Fayetteville. had one short-A season then retired the next spring.

2019:

• Pratt, Andrew, C, 10th round $10k from Lubbock Christian: missed Covid year, played in 2021 at HighA, and was probably released at the end of the 2021 season. MILB.com never recorded his official release and has him officially still active.

2020:

• Lindsly, Brady, 5th round $10k Ca signing from Oklahoma: Ironic that we signed Cavalli’s college catcher to an underslot deal so we could pay him overslot the same year. But, Lindsly is active to this day, performing classic org-guy backup catcher duties with two NRIs the last two seasons to help with Spring Training catcher duty. He’s 27 now, but still has one more year before hitting 6years in the org.

2021:

• None: we didn’t have a single throw-away signing this year, likely because of the Covid year. We did sign a slew of college “seniors,” but they all likely had another year of eligibility due to the lost season.

2022:

• Stehly, Murphy, 10th round 3B from Texas $10k: As we speak, the starting 3B in AA Harrisburg (thought he just hit the DL) and is slashing .328/.417/.500 there this year. Impressive. Might be one of our best Sr. Signs yet.

2023:

Our first real major foray into draft dollar manipulation, as we needed to find an extra $1.5M or so to sign Sykora. So we punted on 5 picks and got him. Looking like a great decision so far, at least as far as Sykora’s development goes.

• Dugas, Gavin, 6th round 2B from LSU $20k; destroyed low-A pitching in 2024, hasn’t been able to keep it going in High-A but still active.
• Snell, Ryan, 7th round C from Lamar $20k; barely played in rookie league in 2023, then retired mid 2024 before taking the field.
• Simpson, Jared*, 8th round LHP from Iowa $20k: missed almost all of 2024 with injury, but has been a decent middle reliever for High-A this season. Needs to cut down on walks.
• Schultz, Thomas, 9th round RHP from Vanderbilt $20k; has earned two promotions in 2025 and is now in AA bullpen.
• Glasser, Phillip*, 10th round SS/2B from Indiana $20k. Promoted twice in 2024, now hitting .300 starting in AA as a “play anywhere” kind of guy (SS, 2B, LF, etc).

2024:

The Nats took these draft bonuses to a new low, paying two guys just $2k. I mean, did that even cover their flight to Florida?

• Ross, Jackson, 3B 9th rounder from Ole Miss $2k: Bashed his way out of Low-A in a month, struggling in High-A as we speak.
• Johnson, Luke, RHP 10th rounder from UMBC: $2k. Weird usage for Johnson so far; he’s 23 and is basically unhittable in the FCL, was promoted for a spot start (4ip, 2h, 0r) and then was sent back down. He’s just been called back to Low-A to presumably take a spot in the rotation, so we’ll see what he’s got.

2025:

Taking a page out of 2023, we have five senior signs to shake out enough cash to sign three prep kids to overslot deals. Technically Boston Smith getting $50k likely disqualifies him based on my own criteria, but it was still a huge haircut off his $386k slot.

• Boston Smith, C/OF from Wright State $50k; some scouts liked him, and the $50k versus the $5-$10k figure may have factored in here; we probably were competing with other teams looking at him as a senior sign and threw some extra dollars here.
• Julian Tonghini, RHP from Arizona $10k
• Riley Maddox, RHP from Ole Miss $10k
• Wyatt Henseler, 2B/3b from TAMU $10k
• Hunter Hines, 1B from Miss State $5k

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So, who has been the best? Probably Guilbeau, the only guy on this list to make the Majors.

The best career might be Derek Self, playing out his entire ML contract. Cropley made it to AAA for another team. Lindsley has been in AAA for a couple years now. Perhaps Stehly has the best shot right now. Clearly the deck is stacked against them.

It did not take Baseball America long to provide an updated top 30 for the Washington Nationals (and the rest of the league) post Draft, and I was surprised to see where our 1-1 pick Willits ended up. That would be atop our system rankings.

BA also took the opportunity to “graduate” a few guys and to tweak some of the rankings for players who have struggled badly this year (but, they did not seem to tweak rankings for those who have over-performed this round). They did an early June release of rankings, and now a mid July, so we have a six week differential of ranks that I’ll discuss below.

Here’s the top 30, plus a few in the 31-35 range that were likely “pushed down” by our 2025 top draft picks.

Rank	First Name	Last Name	Position
1	Eli	Willits	SS
2	Travis	Sykora	RHP (Starter)
3	Jarlin	Susana	RHP (Starter)
4	Brady	House	SS/3B
5	Alex	Clemmey	LHP (Starter)
6	Luke	Dickerson	SS/CF
7	Daylen	Lile	OF (CF)
8	Ethan	Petry	1B/OF
9	Coy	James	SS
10	Cade	Cavalli	RHP (Starter)
11	Seaver	King	SS
12	Caleb	Lomavita	C
13	Landon	Harmon	RHP
14	Robert	Hassell III	OF (CF)
15	Jake	Bennett	LHP (Starter)
16	Yohandy	Morales	3B
17	Angel	Feliz	3B/SS
18	Tyler	Stuart	RHP (Starter)
19	Miguel	Sime Jr.	RHP
20	Brayan	Cortesia	SS
21	Jackson	Kent	LHP (Starter)
22	Daniel	Hernandez	C
23	Andry	Lara	RHP (Starter)
24	Yoel	Tejada Jr.	RHP (Starter)
25	Garcia	Davian	RHP (Starter)
26	Cornelio	Riley	RHP (Starter)
27	Jorgelys	Mota	SS
28	Kevin	Bazzell	C/3B
29	Sam	Peterson	OF (CF)
30	Sir Jamison	Jones	CA
31	Cayden	Wallace	2B/3B
32	Andrew	Pinckney	OF (Corner)
33	Elijah	Green	OF (CF)
34	Cristian	Vaquero	OF (CF)
35	Robert	Cranz	RHP (Reliever)

Now for some observations and commentary.

Note: not all five of these new 2025 draft picks have signed as of this writing. I think they will sign because its 2025 and players in the top 10 don’t get drafted unless they’re going to sign, but it does bear mentioning that not all of these players are officially on the team as of this writing on 7/21/25. This mostly applies to 5th rounder James, who seems like he’s a better prospect than two of the prep kids drafted ahead of him, and I wonder if the bonus dollars are there.

• Willits enters BA’s list at 1-1, above Sykora. This is notable because Sykora was ranked 28th the last time that BA did an overall Minor League top 100 list in early July. So that also means Willits is not only starting in BA’s top 100 list for the entirety of the minors, he’s starting it likely in the 20-25 range. That’s heady territory. Crews started his pro career ranked #4 on BA’s July 2023 post draft list for some context.
• 2025 2nd Rounder Ethan Petry pops in at #8 and 5th rounder Coy James at #9. These two slot in right ahead of Cavalli, King, and Lomavita. Interesting how our 2025 picks start out ahead of our two top 2024 picks (Dickerson notwithstanding of course).
• The more i’m reading about this James guy, the more I’m thinking this 5th rounder is a massive steal.
• Landon Harmon comes in at #13, and our last big-time bonus guy from this draft Miguel Sime comes in at #19. That seems about right for untested/high risk Prep RHPs.

Those are the new guys. How about changes to existing player ranks relative to where they were last month, and accounting for the five new guys slotting in? Here’s what’s happened in the last 6 weeks:

• Players ranked 2-7 have not changed since June. Should they? Yeah probably: House is starting in the majors but is behind Susana, who has missed two months. Clemmey and Dickerson have really impressed. Lile made it to the show but hasn’t stuck in the starting lineup. Would you adjust these guys up or down a bit? Yes.
• All the players ranked around the five new names have mostly stayed ranked the same … except for those we’re about to talk about.
• Wallace has taken a massive nosedive: he was #16 six weeks ago and is now out of the top 30 entirely. Talk about a weird turn of events for him so far this season.
• Same with Bazzell: he’s been dropped more than 10 spots in the last two months.
• Minor slotting changes for Stuart (still on the DL) and Cortesia, who they inexplicably DROPPED a slot relative to his ranking in June despite him hitting .400 for the first month of the DSL. I mean, what else does the guy have to do?
• Same with Cornelio; he’s dropped relative to his ranking 6 weeks ago. Um, explain that to me like i’m a 5 year old. in 2025, Cornelio made 7 starts with a 3.03 ERA in High-A, got promoted, and has IMPROVED his numbers in AA. He’s dominating there, with a 2.32 ERA, a 1.01 whip, a .169 BAA. I mean, how does this guy get dropped down in relative rankings, even if you’re not doing a full re-evaluation?
• Sam Peterson and Sir Jamison Jones get ranked for the first time at #29 and #30.
• The five guys now pushed outside of the top 30, if I just take the five missing names from June’s rankings, are in order Wallace, Pinckney, Green, Vaquero, and Cranz. Can’t really complain about any of these five now being outside the top 30, based on who got added and how they’ve played in 2025.
• Maaaaaybe you can complain about Cranz, who’s got a 2.02 ERA this season and has crushed it, albeit in low-A as a 22yr old. But hey, he’s a reliever. I don’t think relievers, backup catchers, or utility infielders belong in the top 30 of any system, but that’s just me.

Who’s missing?

• We’ve now apparently graduated Lord, Henry, and Rutledge due to mostly service time (Lord has more than the 50 ip, while Henry & Rutledge will soon enough). They were ranked 14, 15, and in the mid-30s in June.
• No Victor Hurtado, our $2.8M bonus baby from the 2023 IFA class, who continues to struggle repeating the DSL as an 18 yr old, even if Fangraphs loves him (and has him #15 in the system).
• No Armando Cruz, our $3.9M bonus baby from the 2021 IFA class either. At some point production talks, not dollars.
• Rafael Ramirez Jr has been on the edges of top 30s since his acquisition, but has been hurt all year.
• No Kevin Made, who hit .352 in June and (so far) .088 in July.
• No Nasim Nunez, what ever you think of this guy. A glove can only take you so far (he’s hitting .196 in AAA this year).

Ahead of the 2025 draft, which has no real consensus for 1-1 and the possibility of a risky HS kid taking at the top, I thought it’d be fun to document my own personal reactions to our 1-1 picks, in the immediate aftermath, then see how my writing aged. When, as it turned out, we DID take a risky HS kid at the top (but not the one most of us thought), I wasn’t aghast necessarily, but surprised. And it got me thinking: I’m on record writing these instant reactions for years; how have my “hot takes” aged?

So, here’s a fun “hindsight is 20/20” look at my instant reactions to see if I was spot on or way off.

If we had multiple 1st rounders I’ll just talk about the first one (only comes up once with the Kieboom/Dunning draft), and in years we lost a pick I’ll discuss why and opine on those moves too (happened twice, in 2013 and 2015, and for now won’t happen again with new CBA rules).

Useful links for this read: Nats Draft Tracker (all our picks as a franchise with signing bonuses since 2005), and the Baseball-Reference.com Draft Database link right to Nats 1st rounders.

• 2025: Eli Willits, Prep SS from Oklahoma HS. 1st overall, bonus tbd. My instant reaction from earlier this week: I think its safe to say I would have preferred Kade Anderson as a closer-to-the-majors player, as opposed to a 17yr old we won’t see for years.

• 2024: Seaver King, SS, Wake Forest. 10th overall, $5.1M bonus. NatsArmRace instant Reaction July 2024. My instant reaction at the time summarized: this was a surprise, under-slot pick, thought they should have taken someone else, and felt this was a reach (most shops had him ranked in the 17-19 range). I wanted them to take Branden Montgomery (who went 2 picks later) … who of course is slashing .345/.433/.582 in his pro debut in Kannapolis (perhaps to be expected since its Low-A). King has not started his pro career well, thought he is in a hitter’s death valley in Wilmington.

Interesting quote from the post: “Seaver King did not appear in a SINGLE MOCK draft in the top 10 that I can recall, nor was he ever associated with a Nats pick at #10. This is coming out of LF for sure.“

• 2023: Dylan Crews, OF, LSU. 2nd overall, $9M bonus. NatsArmRace instant Reaction July 2023. My instant reaction at the time summarized: happy to get Crews, who was the 1-1 projection for most of the draft season and the Golden Spikes winner. Thought I did say by the time the draft rolled around that I would have preferred we get Skenes Of course, as it has turned out Skenes has been a generational 1-1 player… but he was off the board for us. Crews is in the majors now, which is a big step for prospect development, but has not hit nearly as well in his debut as we would have liked. See the below quote:

Interesting quote from the post: “I think I would have preferred Skenes if we had the choice, given our lack of pitching prospect depth and our abundance of OF prospects, but that can all work itself out later.“

• 2022: Elijah Green, OF, IMG Academy (FL). 5th overall, $6.5M bonus. NatsArmRace instant Reaction July 2022. My instant reaction at the time summarized: I didn’t really commit to an opinion one way or the other, interestingly. I threw up some scouting report text instead of providing strong opinion one way or the other. I do seem to defend the pick slightly, as per the below quote. Right now, this pick is looking terrible, with Green back in the FCL trying to fix his contact issues.

Interesting quote from the post: “I understand there’s people who hate this pick. It is an upside pick, clearly. This pick is about ceiling, not floor. This is about picking someone who might be the next Ken Griffey; a guy who’s already 6’3″ with 70 power who also has 70 speed.“

• 2021: Brady House, 3B, Winder Barrow HS (GA). 11th overall, $5M bonus. NatsArmRace instant Reaction July 2021. My instant reaction at the time summarized: I was ecstatic that House fell to us at #11. Plain and simple. I loved this pick. Right now it’s aging decently, with House in the majors and getting his sea legs.

Interesting quote from the post: “Suffice it to say; I like this pick. Yes he’s a prep kid, meaning he’s of no real immediate help, but based on our 2021 team and the turnover we likely face this coming off-season, we may be entering a rebuilding phase anyway, and House could be part of a crew that helps kick-start the franchise in a few years.“

• 2020: Cade Cavalli, RHP, Oklahoma. 22nd overall, $3.027M bonus. NatsArmRace instant Reaction June 2020. My instant reaction at the time summarized: I found that he hit all the markers for a solid RHP starter, but was concerned about his lack of pitching track record in college. I don’t think I knew his name before he got picked. This pick is not aging well frankly: two lost seasons to injury, and his AAA performance in 2025 leaves much to be desired. Is he a washout? No, not yet, but he’s nearly 27 now and needs to be in the majors contributing.

Interesting quote from the post: “Cavalli is a speculative, scouting-first pick; he has little track record to go on, and this is the kind of pick that you can regret later on if he doesn’t work out.“

• 2019: Jackson Rutledge, RHP, San Jacinto College North (TX). 17th overall, $3.45M bonus. NatsArmRace instant Reaction June 2019. My instant reaction at the time summarized: I was happy with the pick, and they seemed to get a bit of a steal on a player ranked higher than they got him. This take, and the pick, have not aged well; while he’s made the majors he has a 6 ERA there.

Interesting quote from the post: “He throws over the top, is up to 98-99 on the fastball with a mid 80s cutter, a wipe out slider, a 12-6 curve and some deception due to what’s described as “unusual short arm” mechanics.  I’m hoping we’re getting something closer to Randy Johnson and not a rehashing of Jake Johansen.“

• 2018: Mason Denaburg, RHP, Merritt Island HS (FL). 27th overall, $3M bonus. NatsArmRace instant Reaction June 2018. My instant reaction at the time summarized: I liked the pick, getting a player projected to go mid-1st but who fell because of a minor injury (an omen perhaps). This take didn’t age well, and Denaburg never got out of a-ball.

Interesting quote from the post: “This pick is consistent with the behavior we saw when the team selected Lucas Giolito; high-value guy getting picked about 15 spots lower than he should have.“

• 2017: Seth Romero, LHP, Houston. 25th overall, $2.8M bonus. NatsArmRace instant Reaction June 2017. My instant reaction at the time summarized: Hated it. Well, at least I got this one right at the time. See the below quote:

Interesting quote from the post: “Well, the worrisome situation came to pass; the Nats couldn’t help themselves and drafted perhaps the draft’s biggest knucklehead.  His list of transgressions at Houston were large and dumb; fights with teammates, weight/conditioning issues, drug issues.”

• 2016: Carter Kieboom, SS, Walton HS (GA). 28th overall, $2M bonus. NatsArmRace instant Reaction June 2016. My instant reaction at the time summarized: I was surprised they went with a prep kid, but the scouting report called him one of the best hitters in the class.

Interesting quote from the post: “Described consistently as a great hitter, one of the best prep hitters in the class, he currently plays SS but is projected to move to 3B.“

• 2015: No 1st round pick; lost for Max Scherzer signing. Can’t complain about that. Again, like in 2012, thanks to our league best record in 2014, it would have been the 31st overall pick, hence feeding into the thought process that it wasn’t nearly as valuable as if it were in the teens.

• 2014: Erick Fedde, RHP, UNLV. 18th overall, $2.5M bonus. NatsArmRace instant Reaction June 2014. My instant reaction at the time summarized: I didn’t like the pick, calling it an overdraft of a guy with a blown out elbow before even starting his pro career.

Interesting quote from the post: “He’s a Scott Boras client, he was a HS teammate of Bryce Harper, and he’s rehabbing a torn UCL, so he fits in nicely with the Nats on several levels.  It was easy to see why the mock drafts were all over the Nats taking Fedde.“

• 2013: No 1st round pick; lost for Rafael Soriano signing, which I was lukewarm about at the time and grew to really hate as we learned how much of a knee-jerk reaction it was to Storen’s 2012 NLDS meltdown and of Lerner’s influence on player acquisition at the time. It would have been #33 overall, since we were the best team in 2012, so it’s not like we lost a super high pick. That was the argument the team made to forgo the pick with a Class-A FA signing.

• 2012: Lucas Giolito, RHP, Harvard-Westlake HS (CA). 16th overall, $2.9M bonus. NatsArmRace instant Reaction June 2012. My instant reaction at the time summarized: I was really worried about the amount of trust the Nats were putting into surgeons with our draft class.

Interesting quote from the post: “Giolito, if healthy, was in the mix for 1-1.  As was Purke.  As was Rendon.  All three fell because of injury concerns.  So clearly these are top-end talents, each individually worth the risk.  But all three within two draft classes?“

• 2011: Anthony Rendon, 3B, Rice. 6th overall, $6M bonus. NatsArmRace instant Reaction June 2011. My instant reaction at the time summarized: Absolutely ecstatic that we got Rendon. In fact, I distinctly remember being on a live-chat text chain with friends that night and my jaw dropping in amazement as Rendon was skipped over pick after pick. Remember; this guy was the Golden Spikes winner as a SOPHOMORE in college.

Interesting quote from the post: “I still can’t quite believe that Rendon fell to us.  I thought for sure he was going #2 or #3 overall.“

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I started the blog in mid June 2010, so I missed opining on our 1st overall pick Bryce Harper that year. I’m sure I liked it 🙂

So, how did my opinions age? Mostly decent.

I seemed to like:

• Rendon, Denaburg, Rutledge, House, Crews

I was lukewarm on:

• Kieboom, Giolito, Cavalli, Green, King, Willits

And I disliked:

• Fedde, Romero

So, not the best track record of Hot Takes. We’ll see how 2025 ages.

This is a running post with all star notes for the team, updated for 2025. It includes a complete history of our All Star selections dating to the franchise’s beginnings in 2005, and may look familiar as I recycle the old content every year.

Nats All Star Game Trivia: none of these have updated for our 2025 selections.

• All-time leader in Nats all-star appearances: Bryce Harper and Max Scherzer, both with 6 appearances with the Nats.  (these numbers are only appearances with us, not including other franchises)
• All-time leader in All-Star Game starts: Harper, who had 5 starts.
• Total number of Starters in the history of the Franchise: Now is 11; Harper 5 times, Scherzer 3 times, and one each for Soriano, Murphy, Zimmerman.
• Most all-star players named in a single year: 5 in both 2016 and 2017.
• Least all-star game players named in a single year: 1 in multiple years during the “dark years” of 2006 through 2011, and now again in the early 2020s as the team rebuilds.
• Most unlikely All-Star: Probably Dmitri Young or Cristian Guzman, both being the “someone has to make the all star team” nominations in our 100 loss period in the late 2000s.

(* == All-Star game starter)

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2025

• Nationals All-Star Representative: James Wood, MacKenzie Gore (both 1st timers)
• Snubs: CJ Abrams
• Narrative: No surprises here; both Wood and Gore have been near league-best this season. Is it surprising the team got two ASG representatives as a last-place team? Absolutely. Last year’s AS rep Abrams, if we were a 1st place team instead of last place, likely would have gotten his 2nd AS naming since he enters the AS break with a 144 OPS+ figure but is skipped due to the deep SS field in the National League. Wood also got into the HR derby (which we didn’t separately cover this year) but went one-round and out.

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2024

• Nationals All-Star Representative: CJ Abrams, Kyle Finnegan (both 1st time)
• Snubs: Trevor Williams (on dl)
• Narrative: Abrams was initially our sole representative until Finnegan was added at the last minute as an injury replacement. Williams should have been the named representative, sitting in the top 10 in most pitching categories, but got hurt a few weeks before the ASG and probably won’t return for weeks afterwards. We have a couple other players putting up decent seasons (Winker, Irvin) but none really All Star worthy.

Four Ex-nats appeared in the 2024 ASG, three of them starters (Harper, Turner, Soto). Amazingly Reynaldo Lopez represented Atlanta. Erick Fedde didn’t make the ASG but is considered one of the best trade prospects of the year. Wish we could have gotten these two guys to pitch like this for us.

2023

• Nationals All-Star Representative: Josiah Grey (1st)
• Snubs: None really
• Narrative. The Nats were bad this year, and were one of those teams that had to dig deep to find a sole representative. Grey was our opening day starter and was our best starter for the bulk of the year. We had some other players who ended up having decent seasons (Candelario, Thomas, Harvey) but they would have too much competition in their respective positions to earn a spot.

2022

• Nationals All-Star Representative: Juan Soto (2nd)
• Snubs: Josh Bell
• Narrative. Soto gets his 2nd ASG appearance, probably more on reputation than performance for 2022. He’s only hitting .243 as of the naming, but is getting on base at nearly a .400 clip thanks to his league-leading walk figure. Meanwhile, the best hitter on the team by far is Bell, who is snubbed from making his own 2nd ASG appearance likely a couple of weeks before he’s traded to a contender. Well, when you’re a last place team, you’re only getting one guy on the roster. Soto also gets into the Home Run Derby, which he wins. However, the story of the week was the leaking of contract talks breaking down, with Soto turning down a $440M deal and the team announcing they’re entertaining trade talks.

2021

• Nationals All-Star representatives: Trea Turner, Juan Soto, Kyle Schwarber, Max Scherzer* (substitute addition)
• Possible Snubs: none
• Narrative: The Nats scuffle into the all-star week on fumes thanks to losing 7 of 9 against NL West teams and suffering perhaps one too many injuries. Scherzer was not initially named, which I immediately listed as a huge snub. But then not only was he added as a replacement player … he was then named the damn starter. How is that possible? Anyway, among our other named players Schwarber’s injury prevents him from playing, but Soto gets into the Home Run derby, where he upsets #1 seed Shohei Ohtani before losing in the next round.

2020

• Nationals All-Star representatives: (No Game)
• Who would have made it: Juan Soto
• Narrative: Covid-19 forced the cancellation of the ASG and the shortening of the season from 162 to 60 games. Nonetheless, the season that Juan Soto put up should have been recognized, even un-officially. He hit .351/.490/.695 in 47 games for an astounding 221 OPS+ figure, the 33rd best ever season posted by this figure. But, since Soto got hit with Covid and had to miss the first two weeks … he did not qualify for batting titles and was left out of the ASG and MVP conversations.

2019

• Nationals All-Star representatives: Max Scherzer, Anthony Rendon
• Possible Snubs: Juan Soto, Stephen Strasburg, Howie Kendrick, Trevor Rosenthal (just kidding)
• Narrative: Rendon finally is named to an all-star team, having played in the shadows of other more well-known NL third basemen for  years.  Arbitrary Endpoints: Rendon is 7th in baseball among hitters in total fWAR since 2014.  7th.  In the entire league.  And this is his first ASG.  Meanwhile Scherzer is the obvious pick, though i’m not sure he gets the start this year.  Scherzer leads the NL in bWAR … but Hyun-Jin Ryu is having an amazing season and could get the nod (indeed, he has).  Soto’s numbers are solid, as good as his rookie campaign, but he started slow and the story-line surrounding the Nats this season has overshadowed his production.  Strasburg actually has more bWAR than Rendon … but his numbers are solid, not all-star good.  Kendrick would never have gotten a nod, but he should be a shoe-in for comeback player of the year for the season he’s having.  Others of note: Sean Doolittle was amazing for most of the first half but has tired and his numbers slipped.  Patrick Corbin‘s debut season has been solid, not flashy, and he has the same issues as Strasburg had.

Post publishing update: neither of our two representatives are actually going to Cleveland.  Rendon staying home to rehab a nagging quad injury, and Scherzer is traveling but will not pitch b/c he threw a start just ahead of the game.  Both players were replaced by non-Nats … which was a shame b/c a like-for-like with Strasburg for Scherzer seemed like the right thing to do.

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2018

• Nationals All-Star representatives: Bryce Harper*, Max Scherzer*, Sean Doolittle
• Possible Snubs: Juan Soto, Trea Turner, Anthony Rendon
• Narrative: For the home-town All Star Game, Harper gets the starting nod from the fans despite his abhorrent season at the plate (his slash line on 7/8/18: .219/.371/.475).  However, by making the ASG, Harper now keeps his promise to participate in the Home Run Derby one last time before hitting free agency.   There’s no real “snubs” on this Nationals team; The #2 player on the team in terms of seasonal bWAR is Trea Turner but he’s not exactly having a head-turning season.  He was named to the “last 5 ballot” but was a huge long-shot to make it (update; he didn’t: the very deserving Jesus Aguilar did).  Anthony Rendon is having his typical under-rated season and got no love from the voters over the more famous Nolan Arenado (a common refrain when it comes to Gold Gloves/Silver Sluggers too).  None of our starters besides Scherzer are really deserving; Stephen Strasburg was having a decent but not spectacular season but missed a month and is on the D/L.  Nor is any of the bullpen past Doolittle.  Its an odd-season where a team-wide malaise is contributing to the team hovering at .500 at the All Star Break.  Only Juan Soto really is deserving … but he was never going to make the ASG (not when recent more spectacular rookies failed to make it) and thanks to his missing all of April and most of May he wasn’t on any ballots and may struggle to win the RoY over guys who have played longer this season.  Scherzer is named to the team on 7/8/18 was named the  NL starter for the 2nd year running on 7/16/18.

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2017

• Nationals All-Star representatives: Bryce Harper*, Daniel Murphy*, Ryan Zimmerman*, Max Scherzer*, Stephen Strasburg
• Snubs: Anthony Rendon, Gio Gonzalez
• Narrative: For the second  year in a row, the Nats are well and properly represented in the All Star Game.  We have three starters named in the field, including Zimmerman who beats out a slew of 1B sluggers in the NL to not only make the team but get his first start.  Its also likely i’ll be editing this post and adding in Scherzer as an additional starter; he is the obvious choice to start the game for the NL given his first half production (7/10/17 update: yes indeed we did).  Rendon is having a very quiet solid season and is in the “last 5” popular vote, but he seems unlikely to win given that last year’s MVP Kris Bryant is also in the voting (Update: neither guy got in).  Gonzalez misses out despite having a better first half than Strasburg by nearly any statistic; he’s having a career year but seems unlikely to get rewarded with his 3rd ASG appearance.  There’s no other real snub from our 2017 team; certainly there’s nobody in the bullpen meriting a spot, and Trea Turner‘s torrid 2016 2nd half did not translate into the 2017 season (not to mention, he’s had two separate D/L trips).  Once again i’m slightly perturbed that Harper continues to refuse to participate in the HR derby; why the reticence?  Its a fun event that is quickly becoming better than the actual game itself and practically every other slugger is participating.  Is he afraid to lose?  On a larger scale, i’m really happy to see (finally) that deserving rookies are named: Aaron Judge and Cody Bellinger are both named and are both on the inside track for ROY awards; too many times in the past we see deserving rookies unnamed.  On July 10th, the fourth Nat starter was named: Scherzer got the starting pitcher nod, a first for the Nats.  August Update: Rendon’s omission is looking even more ridiculous; he’s top 5 in the league in bWAR.

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2016

• Nationals All-Star representatives: Bryce Harper*, Stephen Strasburg, Daniel Murphy, Wilson Ramos, Max Scherzer (named as replacement for Strasburg on 7/8/16),
• Possible Snubs: Danny Espinosa, Tanner Roark
• Narrative: The four obvious candidates from the Nats this year were all initially correctly selected, though voting shenanigans out of Chicago elected Ben Zobrist over Daniel Murphy by a scant 500 votes.   I thought perhaps Strasburg would have a chance to start the game, given his 12-0 record, but it seems the team pre-empted any such thought when Scherzer’s naming occurred.  For the first time writing this post, I can’t really name any “snubs” and the team has (finally?) earned the proper respect it deserves in terms of naming its players properly.  Espinosa had a week for the ages just prior to the end of voting but really stood little chance of selection in the grand scheme of things.  He’s not really a “snub” but is worthy of mention based on his resurgent year.  At the break, Espinosa ranked 3rd in NL fWAR but 7th or 8th in bWAR thanks to differing defensive value metrics, so maybe/maybe not on him being a “snub.”  As pointed out in the comments, even I missed the sneaky good season Roark is having; he’s 12th in the NL in bWAR at the break and 9th in fWAR but was left off in favor of any number of starters that stand below him in value rankings.  Unfortunately for fans (and for Harper’s “Make Baseball Fun again” campaign, he opted to skip the Home Run Derby again.  I guess its kind of like the NBA superstars skipping the dunk contest; the Union should really do a better job of helping out in this regard.  The new format is fantastic and makes the event watchable again; is it ego keeping him from getting beat by someone like Giancarlo Stanton?

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2015

• Nationals All-Star representatives: Bryce Harper*, Max Scherzer
• Possible Snubs: Yunel Escobar, Drew Storen
• Narrative: Harper not only made it in as a starter for the 2nd time, he led the NL in votes, setting a MLB record for total votes received.  This is no surprise; Harper’s easily in the MVP lead for the NL thanks to his amazing first half (his split at the half-way point of the season: .347/.474/.722 with 25 homers and an astounding 225 OPS+).  I guess he won’t be earning the “Most overrated player” award next year.  That Harper is electing to skip the Home run derby in a disappointment; his father is nursing an arm injury can cannot throw to him in the event.  In a weird year for the Nats, the only other regular worth mentioning is newly acquired Escobar, who is hitting above .300 and filling in ably at multiple positions that, prior to this year, he had never played.  Storen is having another excellent regular season … but at a time when mandatory members from each team often leads to other closers being selected (there are 5 NL closers and 7 AL relievers), the odds of him making the All-Star team were always going to be slim.  Scherzer deservedly makes the team and probably would have been the NL starter; he’s got sub 2.00 ERA and FIP and leads all NL pitchers in WAR at the mid-way point of the season.  But his turn came up in the final game of the first half, making him ineligible for the game and forcing his replacement on the roster.

As a side note, the 2015 All-Star game will go down as the “Ballot-Gate” game thanks to MLB’s short-sighted plan to allow 30+ online ballots per email address.  This led to severe “ballot stuffing” by the Kansas City Royals fans, led to MLB  having to eliminate 60 million+ fraudulent ballots, but still led to several Royals being elected starters over more deserving candidates.

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2014

• Nationals All-Star representative: Jordan Zimmermann (Update post-publishing: Zimmermann strained a bicep, and had to withdraw from the ASG.  For a bit it looked like the Nats wouldn’t even have a representative, until Tyler Clippard was named on 7/13/14).
• Possible Snubs: Adam LaRoche, Anthony Rendon, Rafael Soriano, Drew Storen
• Narrative: Zimmermann’s been the best SP on the best pitching staff in the majors this year, and thus earns his spot.  I find it somewhat odd that a first place team (or near to it) gets just one representative on the team (as discussed above).  Rendon tried to make the team via the “last man in” voting, but historically Nationals have not fared well in this competition (especially when better known players from large markets are in the competition, aka Anthony Rizzo from the Chicago Cubs), and indeed Rendon finished 4th in the last-man voting.  LaRoche is having a very good season, almost single handedly carrying the Nats offense while major parts were out injured, but he’s never going to beat out the slew of great NL first basemen (Joey Votto couldn’t even get into this game).  Soriano has quietly put together one of the best seasons of any closer in the game; at the time of this writing he has a 1.03 ERA and a .829 whip; those are Dennis Eckersley numbers.  But, the farce that is the all-star game selection criteria (having to select one player from each team) means that teams need a representative, and deserving guys like Soriano get squeezed.  Then, Soriano indignantly said he wouldn’t even go if named as a replacement … likely leading to Clippard’s replacement selection.  The same goes for non-closer Storen, who sports a sub 2.00 ERA on the year.  Advanced stats columnists (Keith Law) also think that Stephen Strasburg is a snub but I’m not entirely sure: he may lead the NL in K’s right now and have far better advanced numbers than “traditional,” but its hard to make an argument that a guy with a 7-6 record and a 3.50+ ERA is all-star worthy.

2013

• Nationals All-Star representatives: Bryce Harper*, Jordan Zimmermann
• Snubs: Stephen Strasburg, Ian Desmond
• Narrative: Harper comes in 3rd in the NL outfielder voting, ahead of some big-time names, to become only the second Nationals position player elected as an All-Star starter.  He was 4th in the final pre-selection vote, so a big last minute push got him the starter spot.   Harper also becomes the first National to participate in the Home Run Derby.   Zimmermann was 12-3 heading into the game and was on mid-season Cy Young short lists in July in a breakout season.  Strasburg’s advanced stats are all better than Zimmermann’s, but his W/L record (4-6 as the ASG) means he’s not an all-star.  It also probably doesn’t help that he missed a few weeks.  Desmond loses out to Troy Tulowitzki, Everth Cabrera and Jean Segura.  Tulowitzki was having a very solid year and was a deserving elected starter, while Cabrera and Segura are both having breakout seasons.  Desmond was on the “Final vote” roster, but my vote (and most others’ I’m guessing) would be for Yasiel Puig there ([Editor Update: Desmond and Puig lost out to Freddie Freeman: I still wished that Puig finds a way onto the roster but ultimately he did not and I believe the ASG was diminished because of it).   Gio Gonzalez, Ryan Zimmerman, and Rafael Soriano are all having solid but unspectacular years and miss out behind those having great seasons.

2012

• Nationals All-Star representatives: Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez, Ian Desmond, Bryce Harper
• Possible Snubs: Adam LaRoche, Craig Stammen
• Narrative: The two SPs Strasburg and Gonzalez were the obvious candidates, and my personal prediction was that they’d be the only two candidates selected.  Gonzalez’ first half was a prelude to his 21-win, 3rd place Cy Young season.  The inclusion of Desmond is a surprise, but also a testament to how far he’s come as a player in 2012.  Harper was a last-minute injury replacement, but had earned his spot by virtue of his fast start as one of the youngest players in the league.  Of the “snubs,” LaRoche has had a fantastic come back season in 2012 but fared little shot against better, more well-known NL first basemen.  Stammen was our best bullpen arm, but like LaRoche fared little chance of getting selected during a year when the Nats had two deserving pitchers selected.

2011

• Nationals All-Star representatives: Tyler Clippard
• Possible Snubs: Danny Espinosa, Michael Morse, Drew Storen, Jordan Zimmermann
• Narrative: While Clippard was (arguably) the Nats best and most important reliever, I think Zimmermann was a more rightful choice.  He was 10th in the league in ERA at the time of the selections and has put in a series of dominant performances.  Meanwhile Espinosa was on pace for a 28-homer season and almost a certain Rookie-of-the-Year award (though a precipitous fall-off in the 2nd half cost him any realistic shot at the ROY), and perhaps both players are just too young to be known around the league.  Lastly Morse is certainly known and he merited a spot in the “last man in” vote sponsored by MLB (though he fared little chance against popular players in this last-man-in voting).

2010

• Nationals All-Star representatives: Matt Capps
• Possible Snubs: Adam Dunn, Josh Willingham, Ryan Zimmerman, Stephen Strasburg
• Narrative: Capps was clearly deserving, having a breakout season as a closer after his off-season non-tender from the Pirates.  The 3-4-5 hitters Zimmerman-Dunn-Willingham all had dominant offensive seasons as the team improved markedly from its 103-loss season.  But perhaps the surprise non-inclusion was Strasburg, who despite only having a few starts as of the all-star break was already the talk of baseball.  I think MLB missed a great PR opportunity to name him to the team to give him the exposure that the rest of the national media expected.  But in the end, Capps was a deserving candidate and I can’t argue that our hitters did anything special enough to merit inclusion.

2009

• Nationals All-Star representatives: Ryan Zimmerman
• Possible Snubs: Adam Dunn
• Narrative: The addition of Dunn and Willingham to the lineup gave Zimmerman the protection he never had, and he produced with his career-best season.  His first and deserved all-star appearance en-route to a 33 homer season.  Dunn continued his monster homer totals with little all-star recognition.

2008

• Nationals All-Star representatives: Cristian Guzman
• Possible Snubs: Jon Rauch
• Narrative: The first of two “hitting rock-bottom” seasons for the team; no one really merited selection.  Zimmerman was coming off of hamate-bone surgery in November 2007 and the team was more or less awful across the board.  Rauch performed ably after Cordero went down with season-ending (and basically career-ending) shoulder surgery.   Guzman’s selection a great example of why one-per-team rules don’t make any sense.  Guzman ended up playing far longer than he deserved in the game itself by virtue of the 15-inning affair.

2007

• Nationals All-Star representatives: Dmitri Young
• Possible Snubs: Ryan Zimmerman, Shawn Hill (though I wouldn’t argue for either)
• Narrative: Young gets a deserved all-star appearance en route to comeback player of the year.  Zimmerman played a full season but didn’t dominate.  Our 2007 staff gave starts to 13 different players, most of whom were out of the league within the next year or two.  Not a good team.

2006

• Nationals All-Star representatives: Alfonso Soriano*
• Possible Snubs: Nick Johnson, Ryan Zimmerman, Chad Cordero
• Narrative: Soriano made the team as an elected starter, the first time the Nats have had such an honor.  Our pitching staff took massive steps backwards and no starter came even close to meriting a spot.  Cordero was good but not lights out as he had been in 2005.  Soriano’s 40-40 season is a poster child for “contract year” production and he has failed to come close to such production since.  The team was poor and getting worse.  Johnson had a career year but got overshadowed by bigger, better first basemen in the league (a recurring theme for our first basemen over the years).

2005

• Nationals All-Star representatives: Livan Hernandez, Chad Cordero
• Possible Snubs: Nick Johnson, John Patterson.
• Narrative: The Nats went into the All Star break surprisingly in first place, having run to a 50-31 record by the halfway point.  Should a first place team have gotten more than just two representatives?  Perhaps.  But the team was filled with non-stars and played far over its head to go 50-31 (as evidenced by the reverse 31-50 record the rest of the way).