Your new #1 Nationals prospect, Eli Willits. Photo via MLBpipeline/Getty Images
The third of the “big 3” scouting/prospect ranking shops (BA, Fangraphs, and MLBpipeline) updated and published its system top 30s this week, so following on similar analysis with the other two shops published, I thought i’d put out a review. So, here’s a look at how Mayo/Callis and the team at the MLB Pipeline shop viewed our draft haul, along with some tweaks they made while they had our system cracked open this month.
Wait, you said MLB top 30; why are there 40 names on this list? Well, because between the draft and the trade deadline we managed to add 10 players to our top 30 list (plus an 11th who now sits in the mid 30s), and I just tacked on the next 10 players who used to be ranked a month ago to get our “top 40” instead of the top 30.
I suppose the biggest point here is this: we added 10-11 names to our top 30 prospect list within a couple weeks of each other, replacing 7-8 names who we’ve graduated this year, which is great news. Not all of these guys are going to pan out, but they’re ranked higher than the names we used to have in these spots for exactly one reason: they’re better players. If we “hit” on these 2025 draft picks in particular, we may be sitting pretty at some point soon.
The MLBpipeline team didn’t do a ton of fiddling around with the existing players ranked in the top 20 (so, for example, no dropping Sykora based on new TJ news), but in the 20-30 range we did see some movement up or down, which I’ll highlight below.
So, here’s some commentary, mostly on the 10-11 new guys:
First, a quick overview of the prospects who have graduated this year: in rough order of where they were ranked: Crews, House, Lile, Lord, Henry, Rutledge. And we’re darn close on Hassell and Ribalta. So, not a bad year for “using” the farm system.
Willits enters our system as its #1 ranked prospect, immediately supplanting both Sykora and Susana. Would I have ranked him above a healthy Sykora? No. But this is pretty consistent with where other shops are putting Willits. Fangraphs had him below both Sykora and Susana, others all have him starting #1 for us.
Here’s where Willits is being ranked in the entire minors before he plays a game: MLBPipeline #18, Baseball America #30, Fangraphs #44, Keith Law #48. So, yeah this is a big-time prospect.
2025 Draftees Harmon (3rd rounder), Petry (2nd rounder) and James (5th rounder) all pop into our top 10 list as a starting point. This is more aggressive than where BA or Fangraphs put these other three guys. The final 2025 draftee getting a $2M bonus was NYC hurler Sime, coming in at #17.
Our Trade deadline netted us 10 prospects, six of which appear in the top 30-35 range on MLB’s list. The highest ranking is AAA OF Christian Franklin, who comes in at #14 in the system.
Linan, Cruz, and Swan all pop in to our rankings in the 16-19 range as a starter.
Kent got moved up roughly 8 spots in the new rankings, a nod to his decent pro debut in High-A.
The team moved up Brayan Cortesia a few spots to account for his .327/.447/.374 line in the DSL as of this writing.
Sam Peterson is starting to get some notice, sitting #26 now, but with the influx of players below him this indicates a roughly 12-13 spot rise this year.
Vaquero’s .914 OPS month has bought him some prospect love: he still sits in the low 20s but has maintained that spot with all the acquisitions.
A debut for DSL star Marconi German, who has 8 homers and 26 SBs in 47 DSL games this year.
Tyler Stuart takes a dive; he was #15 a few weeks ago, got TJ surgery, now he’s #30.
In the 31-40 range i just tacked on players who were in the top 30 before all the trade and draft acquisitions, but who are now moved out. Here’s some notables:
Hurtado now at #31; the $2.8M signing is being outshined by Marconi and Cortesia as he repeats DSL.
the final trade acquisition who was ranked at all is Better, showing up now at #32 after getting pushed down by our 5 draftees.
Cayden Wallace, who I ranked #7 pre-season, now is #33 on this list. Phew.
Kevin Bazzell, who we drafted last year to some promise, has done so little this year that he’s now out of the top 30.
Elijah Green now sits at #38 on this list.
Is Andrew Pinckney “only” the 39th best prospect in the system? A 24yr old in his second AAA season, who can play CF and might finish the season with 20 homers? What am I missing here?
I had a great idea this draft cycle. How do we tell which mock draft pundits actually do the best job of predicting the draft? Since I’ve got such hyper coverage of the draft going back a few years, this post circles back to the past few drafts, posts the actual top five players picked, then posts the final mock draft predicted top 5 from major pundits to see who is getting these things right. For the most part I have the same 8 pundits who do mocks going back to 2020.
I’ll include links to past content from this blog, which generally had links to the mock drafts leading up all the way to draft day. In each section there’s:
Actual Draft top 5 link, which goes to baseball-reference.com’s draft database for that year.
The Major Pundit final mock post here on nationalsarmrace.com from the day of the draft.
Then, pundit by pundit a direct link to their final mocks published.
What Happened? Well, the ONLY pundit to have the Nats taking Willits 1-1 in the end was Longenhagen, but then the rest of his top 5 was way off. Willits was in nearly everyone’s top 5, but primarily going 5th to the Cards. Mostly everyone had Holliday-Colorado, but Bremner at #2 was a massive shock. The Nats parting ways with their GM a week before the draft seemed to grease the skids to go with youth versus polish, and hence the near consensus 1-1 Anderson slipped to the Mariners, who were probably shocked and ecstatic at the development. Guys frequently mentioned in the top5 all spring who slipped out: Arquette slipped to #7, Hernandez to #6, and Arnold all the way to the Athletics at #11.
Who was Closest? Longenhagen the only one to get Willits right. Most of the pundits got 4 of the top 5 right ultimately, but not in the correct order. Nobody had Bremner in the top 5.
BleacherReport/Reuter final mock 7/13/24: Bazzana, Condon, Burns, Montgomery, Caglianone. (3/5)
What happened? Bazzana surprised many and took a haircut off the 1-1 draft slot, but word had gotten out by draft day so the best connected pundits knew. Everyone had Condon & Burns , though not in the right order. Oakland at #4 was “on” Kurtz for a while, then the industry thought they backed off, but they picked him anyway, and nobody had him in their mocks. The joke is on the industry; Kurtz is destroying MLB pitching this year for the Athletics and had a famous 4-home run game a few weeks ago. Lastly the Smith pick was a shock to everyone. Montgomery and his broken leg was in most people’s top 3; he ended up slipping past the Nats to #12.
Who was Closest? So, most everyone got 3 out of 5, with nearly everyone having the same three names at the top. Props to those who didn’t have Wetherholt going 1-1 as the “winners” of this mock draft cycle.
What happened? The industry was convinced that the cheapskate Pirates were shying away from bonus demands from Crews/Boras and wanted a bat over an arm, leading them to Langford. Instead, on draft day Pittsburgh stayed true to their board and took the consensus 1-1 pick in Skenes, which then cascaded Crews to us at #2. Langford blew through the minors and looked like a steal for Texas as #4.
Who was Closest? Several pundits got the top 5 right, but only Bleacher Report had Skenes correctly going 1-1. Interestingly, the player most missed with (Gonzalez) fell to 15th in the draft (??), a weird set of events.
CBSsports Mike Axisa final mock 7/14/22: Johnson, Jones, Holliday, Collier, Nats take Green (4/5)
Bleacher Report/Reuter: 7/16/22 final mock: Jones, Holliday, Johnson, Collier, Nats take Parada (3/5)
What happened? Most of the pundits got this relatively close, though there was a lot of mention of Kevin Parada in the top 5 (he ended up going 11th). Everyone had Holliday-Jones going 1-2. Some had Brooks Lee or Cam Collier in the top 5: Lee slipped to 8th while Collier went 18th (how do you go from a top 5 pick to 18th?)
Who was Closest? Baseball America was probably the closest here, getting four of the top 5, correctly predicting 1-2, and getting the Nats’ Green pick.
What happened? Pittsburgh got a big haircut off of Henry Davis at 1-1, which threw off everyone’s mock draft. Then, Rocker inexplicably slipped to #11 and the Mets, where he infamously didn’t sign due to arguments about medicals. For whatever reason, House slipped all the way to the Nats at #11 and we nabbed him, in a series of moves similar to the Rendon draft. Ty Madden, who many of the pundits had the Nats taking at #11, didn’t go until the 32nd overall pick and just made his MLB debut.
Who was Closest? Jim Callis, Longenhagen and McDaniel hit on their first four picks, just getting them in the wrong order. Props to Reuter for being the only one to mention Cowser who goes 5th
What happened? In the weird Covid year, most all the pundits were really “on” this draft, getting 4 of the top 5 correct. Everyone missed on the Orioles taking Kierstad at #2 and for good reason: He took $1.5M or so off his asking price, a deal no one could have known about.
Who was Closest? Nearly all our major pundits got 4 of 5 this year.
Final scores? Adding up top-5 performance for the last six drafts:
Keith Law/The Athletic: 20/30.
Jim Callis/MLBPipeline 24/30
Jonathan Mayo/MLBPipeline: 21/30
Baseball America/Collazo 23/30
ESPN/Kiley McDaniel: 21/30
Fangraphs/Eric Longenhagen: 23/30
Mike Axisa/CBSSports 21/30
BleacherReport/Reuter: 21/30
So there you have it: Jim Callis is the best, closely followed by the BA’s Collazo and Fangraphs Longenhagen. Keith Law brings up the rear, having missed out on one fewer top-5 pick than the collection of Mayo, Axisa, and Reuter. Of course, it bears noting that the entire spread is 4 picks across 6 drafts, so maybe this isn’t as conclusive as I’m making it sound 🙂
Yohandy isn’t playing much at the hot corner, but he’s certainly been hot at the plate. Photo via Baseball prospect Journal
Here’s the four month check-in with all our top 20 (and some) prospects. This mostly does a July focus on the prospects being mentioned, but sometimes mentions season-long stats, which are as of 8/1/25 as best as possible.
This is our prospects as I ranked them prior to the season: If i was to re-rank prospects today a big chunk of these guys would be graduated or moved. Plus, we picked up at least six guys who will feature in our top 30 at the trade deadline; i’ll put those after the top 20 in a special section to highlight their pre-Nats stats.
#1. Dylan Crews OF (CF): Missed all of May and all of June with oblique issue, but is finally doing a rehab assignment in AAA and should be back soon. Was not hitting well before hand. Temperature: on ice, 2026 possibly a lost season.
#2 Travis Sykora RHP (Starter): What a turnaround; in a month’s time he went from a promotion to AA to needing Tommy John surgery. Temperature: on ice til 2027.
#3 Brady House 3B: Is now firmly entrenched as the 3B starter, improved his slash line in July to .270/.276/.392. Only walked once in the month; that has to improve. Needs more power too but he’s trending well. Temperature: Hot for making majors, warming up in the MLB.
#4 Jarlin Susana RHP (Starter). Seems to have dodged the TJ bullet so far with his UCL Sprain; done a few rehab starts and should be back in full-time action in AA by mid-August. Temperature: hopefully warming up soon.
# 5 Seaver King SS. Another awful month for King: .221/.282/.286. I just can’t help but think that he’s been over promoted. Yeah he was a 10th overall pick, from a big conference. But he’s just not cutting it in AA. It sure looks like we got screwed in this draft: Konnor Griffin (taken just before King) is now the #1 prospect in the entire minors per Baseball America and MLBpipeline. Rainer (taken just after us): #34 by MLBpipeline in Detroit’s system. Montgomery (the guy I really wanted): #26, in AA as well, .800 ops for the season jumping up 3 levels instead of getting over-promoted to AA before he was ready. *sigh*. Temperature: cold.
# 6 Yohandy Morales 1B got hot in a hurry in AAA: .292/.360/.510 slash in July. Nice. If he could present as a legitimate 1B/DH type in the majors, we could stop buying veteran retreads and hope they turn into a trade asset. His picture reminds me of the great Michael Morse, by the way. Temperature: warming up nicely.
#7 Cayden Wallace 2B/3B: improved in July from an awful June but is still bad: .219/.301/.356. MLBPipeline has dropped him 20-some spots in their rankings, and I can’t believe i ranked him #7 in the system this spring. Phew. Temperature: ice cold.
# 8 Cade Cavalli RHP (Starter): 0-5 with a 7.50 ERA, a 1.71 WHIP and a .340 BAA. We’re running out of excuses for Cavalli upon his return from 1.5 years off. Tommy John recovery isn’t 100% guaranteed. Temperature: Not impressing.
#9 Alex Clemmey LHP (Starter): only made 3 starts in July thanks to going to the Futures game. He took a small step back in those three starts but still was solid for the month. I wonder why the team hasn’t promoted him this year; its not like Wilmington is in a playoff race. Temperature: staying hot.
# 10 Robert Hassell III OF (CF): After getting demoted from MLB after his initial call up, Hassell didn’t do what many do (which is struggle, pout, or otherwise underperform): no: he frigging tore up AAA this month: .341/.439/.473. This has earned him a return to the majors and more playing time. Can’t ask for anything more. Temperature: scorching in July, now back in the show.
#11 Caleb Lomavita C: Not a great july: .246/.269/.338. First full pro season as the full time C in Wilmington may be wearing on him. Temperature: cool.
# 12 Luke Dickerson SS: has hit a wall in Low-A: he slashed just .197/.244/.276 for the month. He’s still starting, despite the promotion of rising prospect Angel Feliz. After such a promising start I sure hope he’s not hitting a wall already. Temperature: cold
# 13 Andry Lara RHP (Reliever): has been kept on the 26-man roster as the “Tanner Rainey” of 2025: the 8th guy out of 8 who only goes into the game if the team is winning or losing by more than 6 runs. Lots of “8-GF in an 8-1 loss” type logs. And he’s getting hit. While in AAA in July he wasn’t exactly Sandy Koufax either. Eh: he’s still only 22. Temperature: cold.
#14 Tyler Stuart RHP (Starter): He left his 6/28/25 start without getting out of the first, and it was announced this week he’s undergone Tommy John. Poof: see you in 2027. Temperature: on ice for a while.
#15 Daylen Lile OF (CF): he’s now exhausted rookie status with more than 150 PAs, and he’s holding down a starting job in the Nats outfield. He now has a 97 OPS+ for the season. Can’t argue with that for a 22yr old. Temperature: hot for getting there, warming up a bit.
#16 Kevin Bazzell C: finally found his footing at the plate this month: .288/.383/.327. Where’s the power? Zero homers this season in Low-A as a college Jr draftee from a big school. The team is keeping him as the Catcher nearly full time; just a few DH games so far. Temperature: warming.
#17 Jake Bennett LHP (Starter): They babied the hell out of him in his come back, but he’s now off rehab starts and back in AA where he belongs. First two AA starts? Not good. Shelled. He needs more time.. Temperature: cold for now, hopefully warms up.
#18 Brad Lord RHP (Starter/Reliever): basically the Nats’ 2nd best pitcher this year, and now with Soroka traded and Williams hurt will be in the rotation going forward. 18th rounder; in the rotation. Temperature: Red Hot all around.
#19 Angel Feliz SS: struggled in the last month of the FCL season (.191/.304/.294) but promoted up to Low-A nonetheless. He’ll split time at SS with Dickerson the rest of the way. Temperature: cooled off
#20 Andrew Pinckney OF (CF or corner): had a very solid AAA month: .284/.363/.556. 6 homers in 21 games. He can play any of the three OF positions and has essentially split his time almost equally amongst the three this season for Rochester. Is there something here? Temperature: warming
In honor of the trade deadline. here’s the 10 prospects we’ve acquired with their season stats and levels. They’re listed in rough order of their prospect ranking:
Linan, Sean Paul: SP: Age 20. 3-3, 2.78 ERA, 1.09 whip as a starter in low- and high-A.
Franklin, Christian: OF (CF) Age 25, .265/.393/.427 in AAA. 8 HR, 12 SB playing CF fulltime
Swan, Eriq: SP Age 23 4-3, 4.43 ERA, 1.38 whip as a starter in High-A. 77/46 K/BB in 69ip.
Cruz, Ronny: SS Age 18. .270/.314/.431 in AZL. 6 triples, 2 homers; lots of gap power.
Randall, Josh: SP Age 22. 5-5, 3.92 ERA, 1.32 whip in Low-A this season.
Beeter, Clayton: RP Age 26: 3.10 ERA in AAA as a setup/closer type: 33/16 K/BB in 20 ip.
Sales, R.J.: SP Age 22: 4-3, 2.71 ERA, 1.12 whip in 16 Low-A starts.
Eder, Jake RP (lefty): Age 26: 4.91 ERA in 8 MLB appearances this season.
Martinez, Browm, OF, Age 18, .404/.507/.632 slash line in 18 games this year but on 60-day dl
Brown, Sam: 1B age 23: .243/.350/.358 as a full-time 1B in AA this year.
The first 6 of these 10 guys are already in our top 30 on both BA and MLBpipeline lists. I like Sales and Martinez for the back-end of that list at some point. Eder might be a 4-A lefty reliever, and Brown might be a throw in. But we got 10 guys into the system in a week, which is great.
Notables #20 and above by the level they mostly played in July 2025
In MLB:
Six of the Eight relievers we now have in our MLB bullpen were Washington grown: Rutledge, Henry, Ferrer, Brzycky, Ribalta, and Lara. That’s awesome. We complain a lot about not developing players, and yeah its “just the bullpen,” but this is meaningful.
Seven of the eight relievers in the bullpen were in the minors for this team at some point this year and have been promoted up. That’s also great to see; the farm is working.
Now, have they been awesome? No, not really.
in AAA:
He was a MLFA in the off-season, so not entirely a “prospect” but Nick Schnell had himself a month in AAA: .385/.449/.854 (!) for an ops of 1.303. He hit 11 homers in the month. Wow. Where does this guy fit into the OF hierarchy?
#31 Chapparo hit just .203 for the month but still managed to slug his way to an OPS of .849.
#32 Baker still hanging around: he hit over .300 for the month again. He’ll get his shot.
#28 Alvarez: I know he isn’t sexy, but he seems to deserve a shot. Maybe the next time we need a starter we can add him to see what he can do.
In AA:
#101 Brandon Boissiere certainly is putting a kickstart into his career: .324/.444/.432 for the month in AA after putting up a couple years of mendoza line BAs.
#25 Made: remember when i was all excited b/c he hit the crap out of the ball one month? July: .156/.239/.297. Ouch.
I was so down on Riley Cornelio last off-season I didn’t even have him in my top 100. Now? He might be the Nats minor league pitcher of the year. July in AA: 4 starts, 1.66 ERA, 0.88 whip, .147 BAA. He’s a top 25 prospect right now, might get better.
In High-A:
#39 Sam Peterson got promoted and was basically High-A’s best hitter in June. Then, he was also the best Wilmington hitter in july, going /317/.446/.600 in that hitter’s death park in Delaware.
SS Courtland Lawson (born in Reston!) had a nice month, slashing .297/.358/.446 … but one has to wonder what the plan is here? He was in AA all last year, barely hit, got demoted to high-A to make way for 1st rounder King, and now he’s 25 and still in A-ball in his 4th pro season.
#79 Gavin Dugas went just 5-63 for the month (.079 BA) and, well, might be in serious trouble as a 25yr old in A-ball who was a $20k senior sign.
#42 Cranz has picked up where he left off in Low-A. Maybe we try him as a starter?
In Low-A:
#87 Jorgelys Mota was hitting .400 for the month and starting to push his way into top 30 area in BA and MLB when he hit the DL this month.
Holy cow, Vaquero is hitting! .329/.361/.553 with 3 homers and a ton of XBH for the month.
#67 Yoel Tejeda Jr and Davian Garcia (who I didn’t even rank in my top 100 pre-season) both pitched their way out of Low-A as 2024 draft picks. Garcia has the bigger draft bonus as a 6th rounder but Tejeda has had a great season too. Both now showing up in the 25-30 range of prospect lists and will finish out the year in High-A.
#23 Elijah Green is back in full-season ball after destroying the FCL. Still only hitting .220 but his Ks are down. Not sure where they can go with this guy.
In FCL:
The FCL is over; lots of these guys only got 5-6 innings for the month so difficult to pass judgement. Most of the guys moved up at the end of the season were more age based than performance based: the likes of Johnson, Farias, Otanez, Kane, and Montero were all 23 and still in Rookieball, so they had to move up.
Last month’s darlings Sir Jamison Jones and Dashyll Tejada both struggled to finish out FCL. Wish the season was longer.
In the DSL, we can’t really do monthly splits so here’s a quick look at the six hitters in my top 100 pre-season. Then I’ll add in the guys newly impressing and starting to pop up in top 30 lists.
#22 Victor Hurtado is still not hitting, slashing just .223/.370/232 for the year.
#29 Brayan Cortesia is still crushing: .344/.459/.400.
#37 Daniel Hernandez continues to be highly regarded on major prospect shops but it isn’t showing on the field: ..215/.270/.252.
#66: Rony Bello has taken a nose dive since a strong start: .224/.333..343.
#70 Hector Liriano: hitting .185 as a 1B? that’s not going to cut it.
#103 Juan Obispo has maintained his solid line all season: .317/.388/.450.
Meanwhile, Marconi German, a 2025IFa, has exploded onto the scene: .282/.485/.538 so far this year in DSL with 7 homers as the starting SS for the team. He might be the find of the season.
On the pitching side, our DSL’s rotation ace Juan Reyes continues to lead the staff in whip despite being a starter: 9starts he’s got a 2.51 ERA and a shutout this season.
Cornelio is having himself a great 2025. Photo via Nats Player Dev Twitter account.
This is the 4th such review of all our rotations, checking in on the latest month’s worth of production and doing some analysis. Given that the trade deadline just passed, as we go level by level I’ll discuss who is gone, who we added, and guess what may happen next.
Each team section analysis will have the same items: current rotation, changes in the last month, observations, next guy to get promoted (if its in the minors), next guy to get cut, and then a few comments about relievers.
Opening Day 2025: Gore, Irvin, Parker, Soroka, TWilliams
End of April 2025: Gore, Irvin, Parker, TWilliams, Lord
End of May 2025: Gore, Irvin, Parker, Soroka, TWilliams (back to the original)
End of June 2025: Gore, Irvin, Parker, Soroka, TWilliams
End of July 2025: Gore, Irvin, Parker, Lord, Ogasawara
Changes sinceend of last Month: Two big changes: Williams got hurt, hit the DL and was announced to need a “brace” procedure: boom done for the year. He was replaced in the rotation by Lord, completing Lord’s amazing journey to the major league rotation as an 18th round pick. Then at the trade deadline we moved Soroka. This led to the recall of Ogasawara, who will take up the 5th starter spot. It was either Ogasawara or Cavalli, who has done nothing to impress since getting off the DL.
Rotation Observations: Gore’s July was .. not good. Ironic in that he started to get trade buzz just as he was driving production wise. 6.75 ERA for the month, but he didn’t get moved so now he can focus on being good the rest of the year so we can trade him this coming off-season. Irvin improved but still had a 4.55 ERA month. Parker had a 6.04 ERA in 4 July starts. Lord is being eased back into starting so is only going 3-4 innings a start, so we’ll withhold judgement. Ogasawara remains tbd.
Next guy to get cut/demoted: Ogasawara; I can’t imagine he’ll hang in the rotation and we may see Cavalli or a call-up at some point soon.
Bullpen comments: Our bullpen is now almost entirely guys who we’ve promoted from our minor leagues this season. Here was our opening day bullpen versus today (this includes 8/1 callups Ribalta, Loutus)
Opening Day: Finnegan, Lopez, Sims, Ferrer, Poche, Salazar, Ribalta, Lord
What churn. Finnegan traded, Lopez released, Sims released, Poche released, Salazar demoted, and Lord to the rotation. We still have a few 40-man options in AAA (Thompson, Beeter, and Eder), so I’d imagine we’ll be seeing the new guys next.
AAA Rochester
Opening Day 2025: Alvarez, Lara, Ogasawara, Choi, Solesky
End of April 2025: Alvarez, Lara, Solesky, Shuman, Cavalli (rehab)
End of May 2025: Alvarez, Solesky, Shuman, Cavalli, Sampson
End of June 2025: Alvarez, Solesky, Shuman, Cavalli, Sampson
End of July 2025: Alvarez, Solesky, Cavalli, Conley, tbd (was Ogasawara)
Changes since end of last month: Shuman was dumped out of the rotation (as predicted last month) for Ogasawara, Sampson was demoted to AA after getting hurt and spending some time on the DL. Ogasawara as of this writing hasn’t been replaced on the AAA roster, nor have the other promotions (I have Rochester at just 24 of 28 slots). I’d guess either Shuman back or Sampson promoted back to AAA as the 5th guy.
Rotation Observations: Ogasawara had a couple of clean starts in July after coming off DL. Alvarez and Conley’s month was 4.00 era-ish and decent if not spectacular peripherals. Solesky struggled badly; ERA above 9.00, whip above 2.00. The big news is that Cavalli just doesn’t seem to have it right now; 7.50 ERA in 5 July starts. He gave up 33 hits in 24 innings; that’s just not good enough. If he’s working on something fine, but if this is what we have, that’s not good.
Next guy to get Promoted: Though Cavalli is the sole starter on the 40-man, if a need pops up I’d add and Promote either Alvarez or Conley. Conley is 30 with no MLB time so that’d be a great story, but Alvarez deserves it too.
Next guy to get cut/demoted: Solesky; the MLFA who we got out of indy ball got crushed this month, and with some upwards pressure bubbling up from the lower levels, he may get slid out of a job.
Bullpen comments: Bravo to Pilkington for finally getting promoted after being excellent all season. Same with the likes of Loutus and Brzycky. As for the rest of the bullpen … not much good to report.
AA Harrisburg
Opening Day 2025: Shuman, Luckham, Saenz, Susana, Atencio
End of April 2025: Luckham, Saenz, Susana, Choi, Soroka (rehab)
End of May 2025: Luckham, Saenz, Choi, Cornelio, Conley (with multiple Gomez openers)
End of June 2025: Luckham, Choi, Cornelio, Conley, Stuart with Lara, Sykora coming in at end of month.
End of July 2025: Luckham, Choi, Cornelio, Bennett, Huff/Schultz openers (with Sampson, Sykora, Lara each getting 1 start)
Changes since end of last month: A busy month for the AA rotation: Conley got promoted, and he was mostly replaced by Bennett. Stuart pitched for a month and then hit the 60-day DL (not good). He was mostly replaced by a couple of relievers doing “opener” gigs. At the end of the month Sampson returned from AAA D/L to make a start. Lastly, the big news: Sykora made one July 5th start, hit the DL, and now he needs Tommy John. Dagger.
Rotation Observations: Susana is doing rehab starts after 2 months of radio silence; so we’ll see what happens. Luckham and Choi struggled badly in July. Bennett’s introduction to AA has not started smoothly. Sampson’s one start isn’t enough to go on, and at 33 it’s kind of ridiculous for him to be in AA. The bright spot? Frigging Riley Cornelio, who continues to tear through the minors in 2025. 1.66 ERA and 0.88 whip in AA in July. I’ve been questioning this guy for two years; suddenly he’s one of our system’s best arms. Bravo.
Next guy to get Promoted: I got the Conley promotion right from last month; this month I’d say that Sampson needs to go back up just based on age/experience. But on performance, its Cornelio. I don’t know if he’s ready yet, perhaps he continues for another month and finishes things out in AA with an eye towards starting next season in AAA.
Next guy to get cut/demoted: The answer for the 2nd month in a row is Rule-5 guy Choi. Though Luckham may have reached his ceiling as a player.
Bullpen comments: Erick Mejia’s journey back to the majors as a reliever looks great in AA: a spotless month; 7 games, 8ip, 1 hit. I’d put him in AAA right now. Junior Santos also had a zero ERA for the month, and Thomas Schultz looks great. If they move a couple of the AAA guys up, I could see a few of these AA studs moving up in turn.
High-A Wilmington
Opening Day 2025: Clemmey, Cornelio, Kent, Sthele, Tepper
End of April 2025: Clemmey, Cornelio, Kent, Sthele, Arias
End of May 2025: Clemmey, Kent, Sthele, Sykora, Bennett, Stuart (rehab) plus a bunch of spot starts
End of June 2025: Clemmey, Kent, Sthele, Bennett, and four rehab stars from Ogasawara/Lara
End of July 2025: Clemmey, Kent, Sthele, Tolman, Susana rehab starts plus Tejada and Garcia late.
Changes since end of last month: Bennett made 3 more dominant starts and finally got pushed up to AA where he belongs. To take his place the team moved up both Tejada and Garcia from Low-A.
Rotation Observations: As noted, Bennett posted a 1.45 ERA in 3 starts and got moved up. Clemmey continues his great season: 2.81 ERA in his 3 starts in July. Kent showed a bit of fatigue in his first pro season, driving up to a 4.85 ERA for the month. Tolman continues to be excellent and I’m not sure why he’s not permanently installed in the rotation. Garcia and Tejada’s intro to High-A wasn’t pretty; they have the rest of the season to figure it out for 2026.
However, we’re about to see some major changes here, because the team acquired THREE new High-A starters in Randall, Swan, and Linan. By my count, there’s now at least 10-11 guys on the Wilmington roster who are “starters” … which is twice what we have room for.
Next guy to get Promoted: We got Bennett right from last month; Next we’ll see Susana returned from “rehab” to AA. If it was me i’d probably move up Tolman, who’s lefty, 25 and can be both a starter and a reliever.
Next guy to get cut/demoted: For the second month, nobody really. Sthele pitched well for the month, Kent isn’t going anywhere despite having a 4.60 ERA for the season (maybe the answer is, Kent gets an invisible “injury” and gets shut down to make room for the new guys).
Bullpen comments; nobody really notable pushing for a promotion right now.
Low-A/Fredericksburg
Opening Day 2025: Polanco, Meckley, Tejeda, Roman, DGarcia
End of April 2025: Polanco, Meckley, Tejeda, Roman, DGarcia with Bennett making his 2025 debut
End of May 2025: Polanco, Meckley, Tejeda, Roman, DGarcia with two “rehab” starts from Bennett/Sykora
End of June 2025: Polanco, Meckley, Tejeda, Roman, DGarcia, Romero
End of July 2025: Polanco, Meckley, Romero, Sullivan, Johnson
Changes since end of last month: After months, we got some movement here. Tejeda and DGarcia (finally) moved up, Roman (finally) axed from the rotation with his 8+ seasonal ERA. They were replaced with Sullivan off the DL and Johnson finally getting promoted up from the FCL despite being 23.
Rotation Observations: Tejeda and Garcia were excellent in July and were worthy to move up. Polanco was solid again but now faces a huge crush of starters in our Low- and High-A teams. Sullivan’s debut was excellent, which is nice to see. Johnson’s 2nd low-A start was bad. Lastly Romero got hit.
However, the team has created a crush here by promoting the FCL’s two best guys at the end of the month in Farias and Feliz (the FCL season ended on July 30th), plus added Sales in the trade window. So Low-A now has 8 guys for 5 spots. (post-publish correction, thanks FredMD; the Nats promoted Angel Feliz the SS, not Jose Feliz the pitcher).
Next guy to get Promoted: They moved up Tejeda and Garcia … now there’s no room in High-A even if someone in Low-A deserved it.
Next guy to get cut/demoted: We got Roman right from last month: i’d guess the team moves Johnson to the bullpen and might sideline Romero to make room for the new additions.
Bullpen comments: They finally promoted Cranz and Aldonis. Baldo need to go next; he’s 25 and isn’t being challenged in Low-A.
End of May 2025: Feliz, Portorreal, Farias, Johnson, Lunar
End of June 2025: Feliz, Portorreal, Farias, Lunar, Sullivan (rehab)
End of Season/End of July 2025: Feliz, Portorreal, Farias, Lunar, Johnson
Changes since end of last month: The season ended with Sullivan back in Low-A and Johnson doing the last few starts.
Rotation Observations: Sullivan overpowered rookie ball as expected. Feliz finished off an excellent FCL season with another month of sub 2.00 ERA. Portorreal was solid but didn’t earn the promotion at the end of the season. Lunar struggled. Lastly Farias had another iffy month but got moved up to low-A nonetheless, perhaps to see if he can cut it in Low-A the rest of the way in a sink or swim move.
Next guy to get Promoted: Sullivan and Farias got moved up at the end of the season in kind of age-related moves. Feliz should have moved up based on performance.
Next guy to get cut/demoted: n/a; end of season.
Bullpen comments: they moved up Kane as they should have. Nobody else in the FCL bullpen really pitched much worth of analysis in July.
DSL/Rookie
Opening day: JReyes, De La Cruz, Robles, Carrasco, Mejia
End of June 2025: JReyes, De La Cruz, Robles, Carrasco, Torrellas
End of July 2025: JReyes, De La Cruz, Robles, Torrellas, Carela
Changes since end of last month: Carrasco moved to the bullpen, replaced by Carela. Only 7 guys have made starts this year for DSL.
Rotation Observations: There’s no splits for DSL guys, so i can’t isolate July versus the whole year. Reyes and Carela have the best season numbers so far, both with sub 3.00 ERAs. Reyes is a 23IFA and is already 20 so no surprise here. Robles and De La Cruz have both been ok but wild. Torrellas needs more time.
Next guy to get Promoted: Reyes: he was a 23IFA and is a 20yr old in DSL: time to come stateside. This is exactly what I wrote last month and it remains true. This is a perfect example of why the loss of Short-A is troublesome.
Next guy to get cut/demoted: The two moved out of the rotation so far this year (Mejia and Carrasco) are both 25IFAs, where as everyone else in the rotation right now is a 23 or 24IFa.
Bullpen comments: Juan Lopez remains the only reliever that looks like he could move stateside right now, but with FCL done it won’t happen until next spring.
Alex Call was probably the biggest surprise mover at the deadline. Photo via Federal Baseball.
The 2025 Nats trade deadline has come and gone, and I have to admit, I’m surprised at how “well” the team did in moving its assets. In five separate deals the team moved nearly every one of its expiring contracts or useful-but-spare parts pieces and netted a ton of actual prospect depth along the way.
Earlier this month I previewed what we had to offer teams, and I went over a rather pessimistic take on what I thought we’d get in return for players. As it turned out, of everyone discussed, the only three non-injured guys we didn’t manage to move were Salazar, Bell, and deJong (none really a surprise given their overall performance for the season), and then on top of that we managed to move an outfielder in Alex Call who, while we like him, was certainly spare parts given the massive amount of OF depth we have in the system (in no particular order, Wood, Crews, Young, Lile, Hassell, Pinckney all at AAA or higher).
Lets take a quick run through the moves and talk about the value of the prospects we got back, which now populate a big chunk of our top 30 on the MLBpipeline board. As the day progressed and as of right now, our Big Board is updated with all transactions, with all newly acquired players assigned to their new levels.
Executive Summary: we traded 6 guys off the active roster, got back 10 prospects, 6 of which now sit in our top 30 as per mlbpipeline’s rankings. As I list them below i’ll put their new spot in our top 30.
Trade #1: Amed Rosario traded to NYY for #24 RHP reliever Clayton Beeter, OF Browm Martinez. Beeter is a former 2nd rounder, setup type guy, 40-man roster already, and is in AAA now but may get called up since we suddenly have some bullpen spots open. Big arm, lots of Ks, lots of walks. Martinez is the proverbial lottery ticket, an 18yr old in DSL who we immediately put onto the 60-day DL upon acquisition.
Trade #2: Chafin & Garcia traded to LAA for LHP reliever Jake Eder, 1B Sam Brown. Neither Eder or Brown are top 30 prospects; Brown in AAA with some MLB time this year, while Brown is repeating AA this year. Still, not bad return for two guys we signed off the veteran/MLFA heap in May and July respectively.
Trade #3: Mike Soroka traded to CHC for #11 OF Christian Franklin, #13 SS Ronny Cruz. Franklin heads to AAA, is an undersized corner type (similar to Lile) and adds to our existing OF depth, kind of surprising acquisition given what we already have in that regard. Cruz seems to be the prize, a 3rd round prep kid drafted last year, given decent money and who has solid power grades despite being a SS.
Trade #4: Kyle Finnegan traded to Det for #23 RHP starter Josh Randall and RHP starter RJ Sales. Randall is the prize; a 3rd rounder starter who heads to High-A sinker/slider guy with a 4.18 ERA this year in Low-A and who had just been moved up to High-A (he was assigned to Wilmington for us). Sales was a 10th rounder last year who doesn’t have he same upside, though he has far better numbers in Low-A this year than Randall and reports to our Low-A directly.
Trade #5: Alex Call traded to LAD for RHP starter #10 Sean Paul Linan and RHP starter #12 Eriq Swan. Linan seems to be the prize here, a 20-yr old IFA with really good K numbers in High-A this year to go along with a 2.65ERA. They even called him up for 2 spot starts in AAA (he got shelled). But don’t sleep on former 4th rounder Swan, a strong arm type who’s relatively new to pitching but has effortless upper 90s velocity.
So, to summarize, here’s where these 10 guys are reporting:
AAA: OF Franklin, RHP reliever Beeter, LHP reliever Eder
AA: 1B Brown
High-A: three new SPs Randall, Swan, Linan
Low-A: new SP Sales
FCL: SS Cruz
DSL: OF Brown
Possible Minor League impacts:
AAA: Beeter and Eder are both 40-man guys and we’re suddenly down a bunch of players at the MLB level so they may get callups soon. With Call’s trade, Hassell likely gets called up so Franklin can go right into starting lineup in Rochester.
AA: Brown joins a team that just promoted 1B only Boissiere and who has 1B-only Naranjo on the roster as well; not too much playing time to split when you have three primary 1Bs. Naranjo may be odd-man out, either going back to High-A or getting released since he’s a MLFA with little investment.
High-A: Three new SPs, all of whom are decent prospects, will stress that rotation as it is made up right now, especially since the team just promoted both Tejada and Garcia. There’s just not enough innings to go around in Wilmington right now and something will have to give. Kent isn’t going anywhere, though he’s showing signs of fatigue. Tolman is kind of a swingman type but has great numbers. Sthele is a fan favorite but may be topped out and could move to the pen. They’ve already moved out Arias and Caceres. Should be interesting to see how this rotation shakes out.
Low-A: Also just added three new arms via promotion in Sullivan, Farias, and Feliz and now they have 8 starters for 5 spots. There’s not an obvious existing candidate to dump out of the rotation to make way necessarily.
FCL: well, we just assigned our $8.2M SS Willits to FCL; Cruz isn’t playing above him. We also have $2.5M SS Coy Jones there. Maybe Cruz and Jones become 2B and 3B and get SS time here and there.
DSL: Brown immediately to 60-day DL, a curious acquisition to get someone who’s hurt upon arrival.
Judgement: love the pouring in of arms. Six arms, some of whom immediately help in the bullpen, others who might stick as starters or who add to the roster of possible relievers. Why has our bullpen been so bad lately? Because we have not had the pipeline of starters-turned-relievers that we need from the last few drafts. Now we have a bunch more candidates for that.
I got a text from an old friend who I rarely chat with yesterday while out at dinner; Travis Sykora, seemingly out of nowhere, has to have Tommy John surgery.
What a dagger.
Sykora, of course, is our top prospect (or perhaps 2nd best with the addition of Eli Willits, who most prospect shops were installing above Sykora even before this news) and was a key near-term building block that this team could point to as a contributor that could help turn the tide on this 5-6 year “rebuilding” era. Now he’s suffered a mid-season UCL injury, which as we’ve now seen recently with Cavalli, Bennett, and Grey basically turns into a 1.5 season loss (the rest of this season and all of next).
My question is this: based on this injury, the team’s current form, the recent axing of the long-time GM, and the 2025 HS-heavy draft … are we about to see a sell-off and another bottoming out?
More and More I think the answer is yes.
The 2025 draft did not get one marquee player who can help this team in the near term; we could have drafted a polished college starter in Anderson and had him on the fast track to the MLB rotation by 2027, but we didn’t; instead we blew all our money on 17=18yr olds who might show up by next decade. Grey is out until next spring. Cavalli was out for nearly 2 years and is not looking like he’s come back in AAA. We’ve just lost Sykora. Susana has a sprained UCL now and is trying to come back, but he seems like a ticking time bomb. We lost Herz to TJ. Crews remains out (and, not for nothing hasn’t exploded onto the MLB scene).
It’s just too many things to work around, not if you’re not willing to spend money.
So what would this look like? A “sell-off?” Well; it would mean MacKenzie Gore out the door. He’s still got two years of control (as does Garcia, Grey, Adams, and Thompson) but he’s the prize. But he’s the one teams have to be asking about right now. If you’re not going to even try to compete for 3 more years, and you have a top-end arm in a league starved for them, and he’s represented by Boras (which means he’s never resigning), then … cash in. Cash in and sell high.
The team is 20 games under .500; what’s the point of a near Ace starter anymore? Trade him to a team with a thousand prospects, get a haul, and go from there.
With so many “senior signs” this year (five), I thought it’d be interesting to see our history with these guys and how they’ve turned out.
For definition purposes, a “Senior Sign” is a College Senior or a college player with no remaining eligibility who is drafted usually in the 8th, 9th, or 10th round entirely to save bonus dollars on their pick to allocate that money elsewhere in the draft. Usually these players sign for $10k these days, though in the early days we often gave them $25-$30k. The deck is already stacked against these guys: the team has almost zero bonus dollars invested in them, they’re already “old” the moment they arrive in Florida, and they have to be doubly as good as a guy with even a slot bonus in order to stick around.
Not only that, but (as a senior sign himself once told me), these guys generally have finished four years of college, may even have a degree, and find themselves at 22 or even 23 heading to a spring training facility full of 18-19 yr olds coming over from the DSL who barely speak English, are just as good but 4 years younger, and who are killing themselves for a few hundred dollars a week. These guys may say to themselves, “man, these guys are just as good as me but 4 years younger and with a ton more bonus dollars” and just hang ’em up.
The concept of these senior draftee draft picks in the back half of the top 10 rounds really only begun existing and being important starting with the draft slotting/bonus cap timeframe, which was implemented starting with the 2012 draft. So, we’ll go through these Senior signs starting with the 2012 class.
2012:
Craig Manuel, C. 10th round $25k from Rice. Played for 4 years, made it to AA as a mostly backup catcher. had some local ties (born in Rockville MD). Decent career.
Derek Self, RHP Reliever 9th round $25k from Louisville. Played out his entire 6-year ML contract with us, made it to AAA as a solid middle reliever. That’s a great outcome.
2013:
David Napoli, RHP reliever 8th round $15k from Tulane. Couldn’t make the jump to High-A released after three seasons.
Jake Joyce, RHP reliever 9th round $15k from Va Tech. Got one season in Short-A bullpen, released. This is basically the floor for a senior sign; one season in the pros, then cut.
Brennan Middleton, SS 10th round $15k sign from Tulane. Two years in Low-A, released.
2014:
Matthew Page, OF 10th round $30k from Oklahoma Baptist: Hung around for four years, got to High-A before released.
2015:
David Kerian, 1B 9th round $25k from Illinois: released from Short-A after two seasons in Auburn.
Taylor Guilbeau, LHP 10th round $25k from Alabama: turned into a decently effective LHP reliever for years, flipped to Seattle to help acquire Hunter Strickland in 2019. Got called up to Seattle’s MLB team, then got hurt. Waived, claimed by AZ, outrighted in 2021, then released. Shoulder injuries are brutal sometimes. First of our Sr. Signs to make the majors, though not with us.
2016:
Joey Harris, C 9th rounder $10k from Gonzaga: played a year in rookie ball, got hurt and missed all of 2017, then released at the end of 2018 from low-A.
Paul Panaccionne, SS 10th rounder $10k from Grand Canyon. played parts of 3 seasons and retired.
2017:
Jared Brasher, RHP 8th rounder $10k from Samford: a weird one: he was in his 3rd season in Low-A and was pitching decently mid 2019 season when he was suddenly released. He had a sub 3.00 ERA but a lot of walks just prior to being released. I wonder if this was off-the-field related.
2018:
Cropley, Tyler, C 8th rounder 10k from Iowa; we released him in 2020, but he got picked up by Kansas City and made it to AAA with them, even getting an NRI to MLB camp in 2024. Released ST 2024. Not a bad career.
Driskill, Tanner, RHP 9th 10k from Lamar; missed two full years to injury and Covid, then got shelled in 2021 and was released.
Shaddy, Carson, 2b 10th rounder 10k from Arkansas-Fayetteville. had one short-A season then retired the next spring.
2019:
Pratt, Andrew, C, 10th round $10k from Lubbock Christian: missed Covid year, played in 2021 at HighA, and was probably released at the end of the 2021 season. MILB.com never recorded his official release and has him officially still active.
2020:
Lindsly, Brady, 5th round $10k Ca signing from Oklahoma: Ironic that we signed Cavalli’s college catcher to an underslot deal so we could pay him overslot the same year. But, Lindsly is active to this day, performing classic org-guy backup catcher duties with two NRIs the last two seasons to help with Spring Training catcher duty. He’s 27 now, but still has one more year before hitting 6years in the org.
2021:
None: we didn’t have a single throw-away signing this year, likely because of the Covid year. We did sign a slew of college “seniors,” but they all likely had another year of eligibility due to the lost season.
2022:
Stehly, Murphy, 10th round 3B from Texas $10k: As we speak, the starting 3B in AA Harrisburg (thought he just hit the DL) and is slashing .328/.417/.500 there this year. Impressive. Might be one of our best Sr. Signs yet.
2023:
Our first real major foray into draft dollar manipulation, as we needed to find an extra $1.5M or so to sign Sykora. So we punted on 5 picks and got him. Looking like a great decision so far, at least as far as Sykora’s development goes.
Dugas, Gavin, 6th round 2B from LSU $20k; destroyed low-A pitching in 2024, hasn’t been able to keep it going in High-A but still active.
Snell, Ryan, 7th round C from Lamar $20k; barely played in rookie league in 2023, then retired mid 2024 before taking the field.
Simpson, Jared*, 8th round LHP from Iowa $20k: missed almost all of 2024 with injury, but has been a decent middle reliever for High-A this season. Needs to cut down on walks.
Schultz, Thomas, 9th round RHP from Vanderbilt $20k; has earned two promotions in 2025 and is now in AA bullpen.
Glasser, Phillip*, 10th round SS/2B from Indiana $20k. Promoted twice in 2024, now hitting .300 starting in AA as a “play anywhere” kind of guy (SS, 2B, LF, etc).
2024:
The Nats took these draft bonuses to a new low, paying two guys just $2k. I mean, did that even cover their flight to Florida?
Ross, Jackson, 3B 9th rounder from Ole Miss $2k: Bashed his way out of Low-A in a month, struggling in High-A as we speak.
Johnson, Luke, RHP 10th rounder from UMBC: $2k. Weird usage for Johnson so far; he’s 23 and is basically unhittable in the FCL, was promoted for a spot start (4ip, 2h, 0r) and then was sent back down. He’s just been called back to Low-A to presumably take a spot in the rotation, so we’ll see what he’s got.
2025:
Taking a page out of 2023, we have five senior signs to shake out enough cash to sign three prep kids to overslot deals. Technically Boston Smith getting $50k likely disqualifies him based on my own criteria, but it was still a huge haircut off his $386k slot.
Boston Smith, C/OF from Wright State $50k; some scouts liked him, and the $50k versus the $5-$10k figure may have factored in here; we probably were competing with other teams looking at him as a senior sign and threw some extra dollars here.
So, who has been the best? Probably Guilbeau, the only guy on this list to make the Majors.
The best career might be Derek Self, playing out his entire ML contract. Cropley made it to AAA for another team. Lindsley has been in AAA for a couple years now. Perhaps Stehly has the best shot right now. Clearly the deck is stacked against them.
Your new #1 Nationals prospect, Eli Willits. Photo via MLBpipeline/Getty Images
It did not take Baseball America long to provide an updated top 30 for the Washington Nationals (and the rest of the league) post Draft, and I was surprised to see where our 1-1 pick Willits ended up. That would be atop our system rankings.
BA also took the opportunity to “graduate” a few guys and to tweak some of the rankings for players who have struggled badly this year (but, they did not seem to tweak rankings for those who have over-performed this round). They did an early June release of rankings, and now a mid July, so we have a six week differential of ranks that I’ll discuss below.
Here’s the top 30, plus a few in the 31-35 range that were likely “pushed down” by our 2025 top draft picks.
Rank
First Name
Last Name
Position
1
Eli
Willits
SS
2
Travis
Sykora
RHP (Starter)
3
Jarlin
Susana
RHP (Starter)
4
Brady
House
SS/3B
5
Alex
Clemmey
LHP (Starter)
6
Luke
Dickerson
SS/CF
7
Daylen
Lile
OF (CF)
8
Ethan
Petry
1B/OF
9
Coy
James
SS
10
Cade
Cavalli
RHP (Starter)
11
Seaver
King
SS
12
Caleb
Lomavita
C
13
Landon
Harmon
RHP
14
Robert
Hassell III
OF (CF)
15
Jake
Bennett
LHP (Starter)
16
Yohandy
Morales
3B
17
Angel
Feliz
3B/SS
18
Tyler
Stuart
RHP (Starter)
19
Miguel
Sime Jr.
RHP
20
Brayan
Cortesia
SS
21
Jackson
Kent
LHP (Starter)
22
Daniel
Hernandez
C
23
Andry
Lara
RHP (Starter)
24
Yoel
Tejada Jr.
RHP (Starter)
25
Garcia
Davian
RHP (Starter)
26
Cornelio
Riley
RHP (Starter)
27
Jorgelys
Mota
SS
28
Kevin
Bazzell
C/3B
29
Sam
Peterson
OF (CF)
30
Sir Jamison
Jones
CA
31
Cayden
Wallace
2B/3B
32
Andrew
Pinckney
OF (Corner)
33
Elijah
Green
OF (CF)
34
Cristian
Vaquero
OF (CF)
35
Robert
Cranz
RHP (Reliever)
Now for some observations and commentary.
Note: not all five of these new 2025 draft picks have signed as of this writing. I think they will sign because its 2025 and players in the top 10 don’t get drafted unless they’re going to sign, but it does bear mentioning that not all of these players are officially on the team as of this writing on 7/21/25. This mostly applies to 5th rounder James, who seems like he’s a better prospect than two of the prep kids drafted ahead of him, and I wonder if the bonus dollars are there.
Willits enters BA’s list at 1-1, above Sykora. This is notable because Sykora was ranked 28th the last time that BA did an overall Minor League top 100 list in early July. So that also means Willits is not only starting in BA’s top 100 list for the entirety of the minors, he’s starting it likely in the 20-25 range. That’s heady territory. Crews started his pro career ranked #4 on BA’s July 2023 post draft list for some context.
2025 2nd Rounder Ethan Petry pops in at #8 and 5th rounder Coy James at #9. These two slot in right ahead of Cavalli, King, and Lomavita. Interesting how our 2025 picks start out ahead of our two top 2024 picks (Dickerson notwithstanding of course).
The more i’m reading about this James guy, the more I’m thinking this 5th rounder is a massive steal.
Landon Harmon comes in at #13, and our last big-time bonus guy from this draft Miguel Sime comes in at #19. That seems about right for untested/high risk Prep RHPs.
Those are the new guys. How about changes to existing player ranks relative to where they were last month, and accounting for the five new guys slotting in? Here’s what’s happened in the last 6 weeks:
Players ranked 2-7 have not changed since June. Should they? Yeah probably: House is starting in the majors but is behind Susana, who has missed two months. Clemmey and Dickerson have really impressed. Lile made it to the show but hasn’t stuck in the starting lineup. Would you adjust these guys up or down a bit? Yes.
All the players ranked around the five new names have mostly stayed ranked the same … except for those we’re about to talk about.
Wallace has taken a massive nosedive: he was #16 six weeks ago and is now out of the top 30 entirely. Talk about a weird turn of events for him so far this season.
Same with Bazzell: he’s been dropped more than 10 spots in the last two months.
Minor slotting changes for Stuart (still on the DL) and Cortesia, who they inexplicably DROPPED a slot relative to his ranking in June despite him hitting .400 for the first month of the DSL. I mean, what else does the guy have to do?
Same with Cornelio; he’s dropped relative to his ranking 6 weeks ago. Um, explain that to me like i’m a 5 year old. in 2025, Cornelio made 7 starts with a 3.03 ERA in High-A, got promoted, and has IMPROVED his numbers in AA. He’s dominating there, with a 2.32 ERA, a 1.01 whip, a .169 BAA. I mean, how does this guy get dropped down in relative rankings, even if you’re not doing a full re-evaluation?
Sam Peterson and Sir Jamison Jones get ranked for the first time at #29 and #30.
The five guys now pushed outside of the top 30, if I just take the five missing names from June’s rankings, are in order Wallace, Pinckney, Green, Vaquero, and Cranz. Can’t really complain about any of these five now being outside the top 30, based on who got added and how they’ve played in 2025.
Maaaaaybe you can complain about Cranz, who’s got a 2.02 ERA this season and has crushed it, albeit in low-A as a 22yr old. But hey, he’s a reliever. I don’t think relievers, backup catchers, or utility infielders belong in the top 30 of any system, but that’s just me.
Who’s missing?
We’ve now apparently graduated Lord, Henry, and Rutledge due to mostly service time (Lord has more than the 50 ip, while Henry & Rutledge will soon enough). They were ranked 14, 15, and in the mid-30s in June.
No Victor Hurtado, our $2.8M bonus baby from the 2023 IFA class, who continues to struggle repeating the DSL as an 18 yr old, even if Fangraphs loves him (and has him #15 in the system).
No Armando Cruz, our $3.9M bonus baby from the 2021 IFA class either. At some point production talks, not dollars.
Rafael Ramirez Jr has been on the edges of top 30s since his acquisition, but has been hurt all year.
No Kevin Made, who hit .352 in June and (so far) .088 in July.
No Nasim Nunez, what ever you think of this guy. A glove can only take you so far (he’s hitting .196 in AAA this year).
How will my Hot Take on Willits age? Remains to be seen. Photo via MLB Photos/Getty Images
Ahead of the 2025 draft, which has no real consensus for 1-1 and the possibility of a risky HS kid taking at the top, I thought it’d be fun to document my own personal reactions to our 1-1 picks, in the immediate aftermath, then see how my writing aged. When, as it turned out, we DID take a risky HS kid at the top (but not the one most of us thought), I wasn’t aghast necessarily, but surprised. And it got me thinking: I’m on record writing these instant reactions for years; how have my “hot takes” aged?
So, here’s a fun “hindsight is 20/20” look at my instant reactions to see if I was spot on or way off.
If we had multiple 1st rounders I’ll just talk about the first one (only comes up once with the Kieboom/Dunning draft), and in years we lost a pick I’ll discuss why and opine on those moves too (happened twice, in 2013 and 2015, and for now won’t happen again with new CBA rules).
Useful links for this read: Nats Draft Tracker (all our picks as a franchise with signing bonuses since 2005), and the Baseball-Reference.com Draft Database link right to Nats 1st rounders.
2025: Eli Willits, Prep SS from Oklahoma HS. 1st overall, bonus tbd. My instant reaction from earlier this week: I think its safe to say I would have preferred Kade Anderson as a closer-to-the-majors player, as opposed to a 17yr old we won’t see for years.
2024: Seaver King, SS, Wake Forest. 10th overall, $5.1M bonus. NatsArmRace instant Reaction July 2024. My instant reaction at the time summarized: this was a surprise, under-slot pick, thought they should have taken someone else, and felt this was a reach (most shops had him ranked in the 17-19 range). I wanted them to take Branden Montgomery (who went 2 picks later) … who of course is slashing .345/.433/.582 in his pro debut in Kannapolis (perhaps to be expected since its Low-A). King has not started his pro career well, thought he is in a hitter’s death valley in Wilmington.
Interesting quote from the post: “Seaver King did not appear in a SINGLE MOCK draft in the top 10 that I can recall, nor was he ever associated with a Nats pick at #10. This is coming out of LF for sure.“
2023: Dylan Crews, OF, LSU. 2nd overall, $9M bonus. NatsArmRace instant Reaction July 2023. My instant reaction at the time summarized: happy to get Crews, who was the 1-1 projection for most of the draft season and the Golden Spikes winner. Thought I did say by the time the draft rolled around that I would have preferred we get Skenes Of course, as it has turned out Skenes has been a generational 1-1 player… but he was off the board for us. Crews is in the majors now, which is a big step for prospect development, but has not hit nearly as well in his debut as we would have liked. See the below quote:
Interesting quote from the post: “I think I would have preferred Skenes if we had the choice, given our lack of pitching prospect depth and our abundance of OF prospects, but that can all work itself out later.“
2022: Elijah Green, OF, IMG Academy (FL). 5th overall, $6.5M bonus. NatsArmRace instant Reaction July 2022. My instant reaction at the time summarized: I didn’t really commit to an opinion one way or the other, interestingly. I threw up some scouting report text instead of providing strong opinion one way or the other. I do seem to defend the pick slightly, as per the below quote. Right now, this pick is looking terrible, with Green back in the FCL trying to fix his contact issues.
Interesting quote from the post: “I understand there’s people who hate this pick. It is an upside pick, clearly. This pick is about ceiling, not floor. This is about picking someone who might be the next Ken Griffey; a guy who’s already 6’3″ with 70 power who also has 70 speed.“
2021: Brady House, 3B, Winder Barrow HS (GA). 11th overall, $5M bonus. NatsArmRace instant Reaction July 2021. My instant reaction at the time summarized: I was ecstatic that House fell to us at #11. Plain and simple. I loved this pick. Right now it’s aging decently, with House in the majors and getting his sea legs.
Interesting quote from the post: “Suffice it to say; I like this pick. Yes he’s a prep kid, meaning he’s of no real immediate help, but based on our 2021 team and the turnover we likely face this coming off-season, we may be entering a rebuilding phase anyway, and House could be part of a crew that helps kick-start the franchise in a few years.“
2020: Cade Cavalli, RHP, Oklahoma. 22nd overall, $3.027M bonus. NatsArmRace instant Reaction June 2020. My instant reaction at the time summarized: I found that he hit all the markers for a solid RHP starter, but was concerned about his lack of pitching track record in college. I don’t think I knew his name before he got picked. This pick is not aging well frankly: two lost seasons to injury, and his AAA performance in 2025 leaves much to be desired. Is he a washout? No, not yet, but he’s nearly 27 now and needs to be in the majors contributing.
Interesting quote from the post: “Cavalli is a speculative, scouting-first pick; he has little track record to go on, and this is the kind of pick that you can regret later on if he doesn’t work out.“
2019: Jackson Rutledge, RHP, San Jacinto College North (TX). 17th overall, $3.45M bonus. NatsArmRace instant Reaction June 2019. My instant reaction at the time summarized: I was happy with the pick, and they seemed to get a bit of a steal on a player ranked higher than they got him. This take, and the pick, have not aged well; while he’s made the majors he has a 6 ERA there.
Interesting quote from the post: “He throws over the top, is up to 98-99 on the fastball with a mid 80s cutter, a wipe out slider, a 12-6 curve and some deception due to what’s described as “unusual short arm” mechanics. I’m hoping we’re getting something closer to Randy Johnson and not a rehashing of Jake Johansen.“
2018: Mason Denaburg, RHP, Merritt Island HS (FL). 27th overall, $3M bonus. NatsArmRace instant Reaction June 2018. My instant reaction at the time summarized: I liked the pick, getting a player projected to go mid-1st but who fell because of a minor injury (an omen perhaps). This take didn’t age well, and Denaburg never got out of a-ball.
Interesting quote from the post: “This pick is consistent with the behavior we saw when the team selected Lucas Giolito; high-value guy getting picked about 15 spots lower than he should have.“
2017: Seth Romero, LHP, Houston. 25th overall, $2.8M bonus. NatsArmRace instant Reaction June 2017. My instant reaction at the time summarized: Hated it. Well, at least I got this one right at the time. See the below quote:
Interesting quote from the post: “Well, the worrisome situation came to pass; the Nats couldn’t help themselves and drafted perhaps the draft’s biggest knucklehead. His list of transgressions at Houston were large and dumb; fights with teammates, weight/conditioning issues, drug issues.”
2016: Carter Kieboom, SS, Walton HS (GA). 28th overall, $2M bonus. NatsArmRace instant Reaction June 2016. My instant reaction at the time summarized: I was surprised they went with a prep kid, but the scouting report called him one of the best hitters in the class.
Interesting quote from the post: “Described consistently as a great hitter, one of the best prep hitters in the class, he currently plays SS but is projected to move to 3B.“
2015: No 1st round pick; lost for Max Scherzer signing. Can’t complain about that. Again, like in 2012, thanks to our league best record in 2014, it would have been the 31st overall pick, hence feeding into the thought process that it wasn’t nearly as valuable as if it were in the teens.
2014: Erick Fedde, RHP, UNLV. 18th overall, $2.5M bonus. NatsArmRace instant Reaction June 2014. My instant reaction at the time summarized: I didn’t like the pick, calling it an overdraft of a guy with a blown out elbow before even starting his pro career.
Interesting quote from the post: “He’s a Scott Boras client, he was a HS teammate of Bryce Harper, and he’s rehabbing a torn UCL, so he fits in nicely with the Nats on several levels. It was easy to see why the mock drafts were all over the Nats taking Fedde.“
2013: No 1st round pick; lost for Rafael Soriano signing, which I was lukewarm about at the time and grew to really hate as we learned how much of a knee-jerk reaction it was to Storen’s 2012 NLDS meltdown and of Lerner’s influence on player acquisition at the time. It would have been #33 overall, since we were the best team in 2012, so it’s not like we lost a super high pick. That was the argument the team made to forgo the pick with a Class-A FA signing.
2012: Lucas Giolito, RHP, Harvard-Westlake HS (CA). 16th overall, $2.9M bonus. NatsArmRace instant Reaction June 2012. My instant reaction at the time summarized: I was really worried about the amount of trust the Nats were putting into surgeons with our draft class.
Interesting quote from the post: “Giolito, if healthy, was in the mix for 1-1. As was Purke. As was Rendon. All three fell because of injury concerns. So clearly these are top-end talents, each individually worth the risk. But all three within two draft classes?“
2011: Anthony Rendon, 3B, Rice. 6th overall, $6M bonus. NatsArmRace instant Reaction June 2011. My instant reaction at the time summarized: Absolutely ecstatic that we got Rendon. In fact, I distinctly remember being on a live-chat text chain with friends that night and my jaw dropping in amazement as Rendon was skipped over pick after pick. Remember; this guy was the Golden Spikes winner as a SOPHOMORE in college.
Interesting quote from the post: “I still can’t quite believe that Rendon fell to us. I thought for sure he was going #2 or #3 overall.“
I started the blog in mid June 2010, so I missed opining on our 1st overall pick Bryce Harper that year. I’m sure I liked it 🙂
So, how did my opinions age? Mostly decent.
I seemed to like:
Rendon, Denaburg, Rutledge, House, Crews
I was lukewarm on:
Kieboom, Giolito, Cavalli, Green, King, Willits
And I disliked:
Fedde, Romero
So, not the best track record of Hot Takes. We’ll see how 2025 ages.
Butler’s Moroknek is our 11th rounder. Photo via Butler U
With the draft now compressed to just two days, we’ve had to punch out a ton of content real quickly. Here was our quick reaction to the 1-1 pick Eli Willits, then we did a post on the first 10 rounds of picks, which seemed to include one top pick with a big haircut, one near-slot slugger, three prep kids who need over-slot deals, then five senior signs.
Here’s the rest of our draft, which comprises guys we’ve never heard of but will nonetheless lookup their stats where available and pass some judgement.
Here’s the two main draft tracker resources you need and that I’m updating this week once the draft is complete.
Nationals Draft Tracker: this is the long-running Google XLS with all our picks dating to 2005. There’s two tabs here: the main page with every pick, then a deeper-dive 2025 Draft pick with slot bonus breakdowns and other information on each pick.
MLB’s Draft Tracker, the best of various options of Draft Trackers out there.
Here’s links to major Prospect Rankings shops that I’ll reference below when assessing the “value” of the pick. I’m not expecting a ton of the 11-20th rounds to have any top-XXX rankings honestly.
11th Round, #321 Overall: Jack Moroknek, Coll Jr. OF from Butler
Ranks by major shops: BA=398
Morokneck is listed as a “Coll Sr” on MLB’s draft tracker, but he is finishing up his third year of college. He came into school old, so he’s already turned 22. I’m calling him a Coll Jr. irrespective of what MLBpipeline says. He was Butler’s leading hitter this year, slashing .372/.443/.702 with power. He’s a 6’3″ classical big guy corner OF (he played a lot of RF for Butler) and the BA scouting profile shows promise. In a repeating trend, his scouting report talks about his elite Exit Velocity (EV), putting him at 90% percentile for D1. This is not the first time we’ve seen EV listed prominently for a player the team has drafted, and I have to believe this is a specific marker our new-fangled scouting department is focusing on.
11th rounders are always an interesting set of players, often with the talent level to have been more like a 5th/6th rounder and often commanding a premium over the $150k figure, so Morokneck will be one to keep an eye on. We’ve mostly tried out College Arms who slipped out of the top 10 with our 11th rounders as of late, often throwing an extra $100k at them, and have had varying success.
12th Round: #351 overall: Ben Moore, Coll JR LHP from Old Dominion
Ranks by major shops: MLB=237, BA=243
A local kid! He’s from ODU in Norfolk by way of Linganore HS in Frederick, MD. Ben Moore began the 2025 season as the #64 ranked prospect by BA … but by season’s end he had fallen out of the top 10 rounds. He went from the bullpen for ODU his first two years into the rotation this year and struggled: 6.64 ERA, 1.68 whip. He was just generally wild: 32 walks and 12 HBPs in 63 innings, and despite having a fastball up to 97 he averaged less than a K/inning. So, that’s not a great 2025, but clearly he had some near 2nd round potential before the season. The team has to be betting on this prior reputation, similarly to the way the Angels were betting on Tyler Bremner’s pre-2025 season promise by picking him 2nd overall. Is he signable? Absolutely; he went to the MLB combine, and you don’t go to the combine if you’re not looking to get drafted and start playing pro. I can’t see any reason he wouldn’t go for the $150k slot.
13th round: #381 overall: Tucker Biven, Coll Jr. RHP from Louisville
Ranks: BA=347
Biven served as a swing-man for top-10 ranked Louisville team this year, getting both starts and saves throughout the year. He didn’t have the greatest stats this year and certainly took a step back from his 2024 season, where he had better numbers. 2025 stats; 23 appearances, 5 starts, 43ip, 3.71 ERA, 1.58 whip. Is he signable? He still has eligibility and did not attend the combine. But, if he’s projecting to the Louisville bullpen again in 2026, what does he have left to prove? He could end up in a senior sign 7th round situation offered $10k, versus gambling on a guaranteed $150k payday today. I think he signs.
14th round: #411 overall: Nick Hollifield, Coll Jr. C from UAB
Seems like a middle of the road college catcher; not great hitting stats, got a nod for a mid-season Buster Posey nomination award (goes to the best college catcher). Slashed .266/.376/.415 this year. Was a rock behind the plate for UAB, making 50+ starts this year. Will he sign? This season was his best offensively, so if he wants to play professionally now’s the time. I think he signs.
15th round: #441 overall: Jacob Walsh, Coll Sr 1B from Oregon
Senior 1B, decent stats this year, 1,000 OPS with 19 homers and some SB. Attended the MLB combine, which clearly did him some favors as we pick him up. Was the Oregon career HR record holder after his JUNIOR year, only extended it in his Sr. season. Lefty, big guy, but also was named to some all-conference Defensive teams. Seems like a decent prospect.
16th Round: #471 overall: Levi Huesman, Coll Jr LHP from Vanderbilt
Huseman is at Vanderbilt by way of Richmond baseball powerhouse Hanover HS. He was initially at Coastal Carolina but xferred in for his sophomore season. This year, he threw just 16 innings this year: 20/4 K/BB in those ip with solid 2.81 ERA. He was a 17th rounder out of HS but went to college, now he’s a 16th rounder after his Junior year. He did not go to the MLB combine. He’s been barely used out of Vandy’s pen for two years now, and I wonder if he wants to stick around for another year of pitching an inning a week. Seems like he’d be signable.
17th round: #501 overall: Bryce Molinaro, Coll Jr 3B from Penn State
Penn State is not exactly a baseball powerhouse. And Molinaro wasn’t exactly an offensive superstar there this year, slashing .267/.373/.502 for the season. He’s a PA kid who initially went to St. Johns and who then redshirted and transferred, so technically he’s a RS Sophomore. He was a lot better last year, slashing .329/.409/.560 as a RS freshman. If he signed, he’d be signing low honestly. He did not attend the MLB combine. I think the combination of his downturn in performance, his now attending Penn State as a PA resident (PA guys are completely enamored of Penn State), and the fact that he still has two years of eligibility means he’s going to stay in school and won’t sign.
18th round: #531 overall: Owen Puk, Coll Sr RHP from Florida International
Puk posted a 4.91 ERA/1.39 whip with decent K/9 but some control issues (23 walks in 40 ip plus 11 WPs) as a sat/sun “starter” for FIU this year. I put “starter” in quotes because he usually only went 3-4 innings, often less, resulting in just 40IP cross 15 appearances. He’s technically a RS junior, having missed all of 2023 getting Tommy John. If you recognize the unique last name you should: he’s the brother of AJ Puk, who was a 6th overall pick a decade ago by Oakland and who is in the majors now. So, Owen isn’t nearly the prospect AJ was, but isn’t a bad bet based on pedigree for an 18th rounder. He’s done four years in school and should sign.
So, we get our one prep backup plan pick here in the 19th round. The Nats have generally used their 19th or 20th picks to grab a big-name prep kid who’s slipped out of signing range as insurance in case one of their negotiations goes south with the kids they grabbed in the 1st-5th rounds. I guarantee you Pike would sign for the overage we’d planned on spending there. He’s a 2-way Oregon State commit who BA had ranked #31 at season’s beginning, so we’re talking a 1st-2nd round talent. He’s a switch hitter with a bunch of 60 tool grades, can hit 97 on the mound but otherwise is mostly being evaluated as a SS. He’ll play both ways if/when he gets to college.
20th round: #591 overall: Juan Cruz, 1B Coll Jr from Alabama State University
BA ranked 474
Our 20th rounder is intriguing: Juan Cruz, huge 1B from Alabama State (6’5″ 240) who attended the MLB combine as a junior. His numbers this year are impressive: .420/.481/.690 for a gaudy 1.171 OPS figure. He’s technically a Redshirt sophomore, but he went to the MLB combine this year, which I’m reading like others as his intent to get drafted and sign. He crushed the ball last year to earn all-conference Freshman of the year, and was SWAC player of the year in 2025. I see one caveat here: he’s in the transfer portal and has committed to move to Georgia. Does he want to roll the dice with a season in the SEC, or to turn pro having dominated his league? We’ll see.
So, a decent balance of arms and position players from 11-20, a couple of guys with solid college stats that might turn out solid. 9 of the 10 picks here were college guys with the one insurance prep kid as an exception.
I’ve updated the Draft Tracker’s 2025 draft with this data, and will start to be on the lookout for signings and NDFAs. I’ll also populate the social media links of these players, since that’s where they often tip their hat to signings or inclinations of returning to school.
